I saw something similar to this on r/cfb and thought it was interesting, so I figured i'd share it here.
Based on FiveThirtyEight, below is the % chance that each team in the AP Top 25 makes the playoffs given they win out.
1. Alabama (8-0): >99% chance
2. Penn State (7-0): >99% chance
3. Georgia (7-0): >99% chance
4. TCU (7-0): >99% chance
5. Wisconsin (7-0): >99% chance
6. Ohio State (6-1): 98% chance
7. Clemson (6-1): 98% chance
8. Miami (6-0): 98% chance
9. Notre Dame (6-1): 47% chance
10. Oklahoma (6-1): 95% chance
11. Oklahoma State (6-1): 83% chance
12. Washington (6-1): 83% chance
13. Virginia Tech (6-1): 77% chance
14. NC State (6-1): 92% chance
15. Washington State (7-1): 78% chance
16. Michigan State (6-1): 83% chance
17. South Florida (7-0): 3% chance
18. UCF (6-0): 2% chance
19. Auburn (6-2): 69% chance
20. Stanford (5-2): 67% chance
21. USC (6-2): 27% chance
22. West Virginia (5-2): 41% chance
23. LSU (6-2): 71% chance
24. Memphis (6-1): <1% chance
25. Iowa State (5-2): 55% chance
Things that caught my attention:
- I know we have a loss and Miami doesnt, but it surprises me that they have that much higher of a chance than tech does
- Notre Dame's lack of a conference seems to really be hurting their chances
- USC (who has lost their only two 'hard' games, imo), has a better chance to make the playoffs than a 7-0 USF, because G5.
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