A Current Snapshot of Buzzketball Opponent Metrics

After recently hitting the 40 turkey leg threshold, this is my first forum discussion topic. I am by no means a basketball statistical guru, but do have the interest and know-how to import and organize data from the KenPom and NCAA NET ranking websites. The graphic below summarizes the game results and provides opponent KenPom rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense, Strength of Schedule) and NET rankings (including Quadrant #). All data is through Jan 9th games. Note that the Quadrant descriptions are provided in the lower-right corner as a reference. Virginia Tech's current rankings are in the upper-left along with a current tally of wins and losses by Quadrant.

There's lots to look at in the graphic and of course these numbers will change daily from now to the end of the season, but based on the current data, here are a few interesting notes:

1. Opponent Top 25 Metrics: I have all opponent metrics that fall in the top 25 highlighted in orange. As Brian Marcolini mentioned in his post this morning, the Hokies' two closest games thus far this season were to Penn State and Georgia Tech, which are the only opponents with top 25 defenses. Furthermore, those were the only two true road games. The Hokies play eight more games against top 25 defenses. Four of them are on the road. Of the 8 games, four teams also have a top 25 offense to go with their top 25 defense (as do the Hokies currently). Hold on tight, we are on the cusp of some tough match-ups!

2. Selection Committee Quadrants: The wins and losses are tallied by quadrant on the upper-right portion of the graphic. Currently, the Hokies have one Quadrant 1 win (Purdue), three Quadrant 2 wins (Ball State, Washington and Georgia Tech), and the sole loss is in Quadrant 2 (Penn State). While this doesn't seem to be glowingly positive, many opportunities lie ahead.

3. Discretionary Opponent Scheduling: I define discretionary opponents as those that are not part of a special event (Charleston Classic, Boardwalk Classic, ACC/Big10 Challenge) or league game. That leaves seven home games to Gardner-Webb (#173), St Francis PA (#263), Central CT State (#287), VMI (#327), SC State (#337), NC A&T (#308) and MD Eastern Shore (#352) with an average ranking of #292 (out of 352 teams) and a 35 point average margin of victory. I fully recognize that Buzz not only wants to schedule warm-up games and also that one can't accurately predict an opponent's future competitiveness. That said, it seems that there's room to schedule marginally higher quality opponents (say targeting teams historically ranked #150-250) to better prepare for ACC play and give fans a more appealing experience. There may also be some value in scheduling a true road game as part of the discretionary slate. These suggestions wouldn't move the 'quadrant' needle much but would perhaps provide an elevated physical/mental challenge for the team before diving into ACC play.

As a parting note, I have this information in a spreadsheet that automatically imports and updates the information with a click of a button, so it would be very easy to re-post here weekly or even after each game if there's interest.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Dude! Very nice work!

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

This is awesome. I would definitely be in to seeing it updated weekly. Well done!

Danny Coale Caught That Ball!!!

Nice spreadsheet. Sort of a viewing guide, as it were. Helpful in judging our opponents.

Though the title had me expecting something else. This is more a Buzzketball opponent guide, isn't it?

Excellent point. I will make the change.

Outstanding as a first post.

Welcome to TKP posting status. You will fit in quite well. I would love to see this weekly as it really provides an easy to grasp status update as we move through the season. Thanks for taking the time to put this together!

Wow. Looking at our remaining schedule is one thing, but to see all those 1's in the quadrant column left makes me much more nervous

Lot of yellow on that thing. Should make for a lot of stressful games

Even more worrisome is that a large chunk of that yellow is for conference road games.

LOVE IT. One stop shop for all things NCAA Tourney seeding!

I wouldn't mind seeing the NET and KenPom sections flipped so that the quandrant information was closer to the schedule so that I could more easily line up the Quad score to the schedule. This may also be accomplished with some shading of the rows rather than shading the games that are complete as the score and W/L makes them stands out well against the blanks beneath.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

TIL: VT AIN'T PLAYED NOBODY PAWWWWWWLLLL!

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

Nice Job!! According to your Quadrant Definitions, Penn State was and Away game, since we played on their campus, and they are ranked 61st, wouldn't that make that a Q1 loss? Or am I miss understanding something?

The committee will use the new NET rankings that were developed this year, not KenPom. Penn State is #76 in NET, so if they move to #75 or lower, then they'll become a Q1 for us.

Image result for thank you gif

If I could make a suggestion, there may be a way to make this easier for you. If you have the spreadsheet as a google sheet, you can embed it here. Then as you update the spreadsheet it automatically updates here and you don't have to upload it to Imgur for every update.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

As someone who cannot access Google Docs at work I would be a little sad if he implemented that method. (Only a little since I'd still be able to check it out at night)

Great post! Possibly dumb question for the board; does the Quadrant for a game "lock in" once the game is played, or does it change as the season goes on? For example, Wake at home in a week is currently a Q4 game, but if they improve by the end of the year and get to a Q3 ranking would that win change to a Q3 win?

Its all about the ranks at the end of the season

That is correct, it can change for good and bad

Dang, PSU is almost a quadrant 1 game

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

This is great, however Virginia throttling FSU like they did as a well ranked KenPom team is slightly nerve racking

There's some thought that FSU was "punching above their weight class" the entire non-conference season and probably didn't deserve to be ranked where they were -- or even as highly as they are now.

Guess we'll find out come season's end.

There's a consistent theme with talented FSU basketball teams (both good and bad) --> Leonard Hamilton

Is it basketball season yet?