By the (Advanced) Numbers: Stop the Chop

For the second time in 9 days, the Hokies face the Seminoles, this time in a one-and-done situation.

[Atlantic Coast Conference \ Liz Condo]

Virginia Tech took care of business against Miami in its opening game of the ACC Tournament, and now it's on to another Sunshine State rematch. Florida State rebounded from a disastrous first half last week to knock off the Hokies in overtime and secure the No. 4 seed and coveted double bye. What to expect as the two re-take the court in Charlotte.

Overall Matchup

The Massey Composite computer rankings collect rankings on every team across many computer rankings systems available.

This is about as close of a matchup as there can be, with perhaps the only difference being how consistently each team is rated...computers seem less sure of the Hokies.

Overall statistics are provided by the KenPom rating system and provide a breakdown for total team efficiency as well as offensive- and defensive-specific numbers.

Virginia Tech features the No. 8 offense and No. 28 defense, while Florida State is just the opposite: No. 12 defense with the No. 35 offense. The weaker side of the ball for each team is still very good, however, so it's hard to describe this matchup as strength-on-strength.

Offense

Offensive personality ratings are defined as follows:

  • Pace: The number of possessions the team has averaged per 40 minutes of clock time.
  • Total Rebound %: The percentage of possible rebounds — offensive and defensive — that the team gained.
  • Assist %: The percentage of made shots that were assisted.

The Seminoles play faster, but then again pretty much everyone plays faster than the Hokies. Slowing the pace down has been an especially effective adjustment Virginia Tech made in the absence of Justin Robinson. Otherwise, the biggest gap in team style is in assist percentage, with the Hokies about 10% higher.

Shooting offense is compared using these statistics:

  • eFG %: Effective field goal percentage is a regular field goal percentage statistic but adjusted for the number of points the shot is worth.
  • 3 Pt %: Rather than the percentage of 3-pt shots made, this statistic is the percentage of shots taken that are 3-pt shots.
  • FTA per FGA: A reflection of a tendency to get fouled while shooting, this is the number of free throw attempts gained per field goal attempt taken.

For a good offense, the Seminoles really don't stand out in any of these areas. The Hokies on the other hand have an elite effective field goal percentage, combined with a high percentage of shots taken as three pointers.

Defense

The defensive personality statistics are defined as:

  • Steal %: The percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal.
  • Block %: The percentage of opponent possessions that end with a block.
  • Opponent Offensive Rebound %: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds gained by the opponent (so 100% - defensive rebound %).

While the teams almost couldn't be closer in steal percentage or rebound percentage, the Seminoles are clearly more adept at blocking.

The shooting defense metrics are the same as the shooting offense metrics, but based on opponents' performance.

As usual, the Hokies will try to force the Seminoles into taking three-point shots, which they do not typically take at a high rate.

Prediction

I keep waiting for the Hokies shallow bench and a sidelined Robinson to catch up with them, but it never seems to happen. I'm obviously biased, but it's hard to imagine a better coaching job than Buzz Williams has pulled off this season. I thought perhaps the Miami game would signal a step back, but instead the team easily dispatched the Hurricanes. So I may as well be confident that none of that matters.

Virginia Tech 70, Florida State 66

Comments

I have to believe that our guys are in better shape than most other teams with deeper benches. It will catch up to us, but I'm hopefull not until Day 3 or 4.

Men's BBall have a S&C coach? Could he beat Hilgart in an arm wrestling contest?

Get well!

Lee Suggs!!

Lets do this, stop the chop needs to be an all time thing!

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

Looking at the latest bracket projection, http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Shows how HUGE this game could be. Lets say that bracket holds up, but a win today and we take FSU's 4 seed. Tell me that VT couldn't make some noise in that bracket with the Zags as the 1 and LSU at the 2

Its definitely huge, just like the last game. I'm not sold on the seedings at this point, and some of those projected as a 4 (Wisconsin and Kansas) should be lower in my mind. I with a win today we secure at least the top 4-seed, and possibly pushing for a 3(?).

Lets just win today and worry about round 4 tomorrow.

to my gambling degenerates... for some reason they are giving FSU + 1 vs. VT today... No J-rob, I am VERY surprised VT is favored.

I don't see VT winning today so I placed a nice little parlay on FSU + 1 and over 135.... win/win situation is the name of the game!

Bleeding burnt orange and chicago maroon

we were one ref screwjob away from winning that game, literally. Regulation ended with the score tied and it wasn't even a fantastic game for us statistically. Play our typical game and I say we beat them handily...of course I'm only confident enough to play our ML, but at least I won't have to cheer against our guys to make my money.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

This loss is on you.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

What time is tipoff?

PDXHokie

About 15 mins after NC State Beats UVA without hitting a single three point shot. So around 3.

"The Cup is going nowhere MIkey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"