*Bear with me here; I'm not sure if this is just me trying to come to terms with Sunday's kick in the nuts.
As football fans we are subjected to the phrase "window of opportunity" perhaps more than we should be. It's one of the intangibles of the game; we know it is there, yet we don't know when it will - methaphorically - close. It just happens. As fans, there is little we can do to stop this metaphorical window shutting, with the exception of continuing to be fans.
I have been a San Francisco 49ers fan for all of my self-aware life. Blame the Dallas Cowboys (sorry RiVAHokie). When I was younger, the 49ers seemingly always won the NFC West, or at the very least, were able to claim the highest Wild Card slot in the playoffs. Football at Candlestick/3-COM/Monster Park in January was a given. Granted, the 49ers only advanced to the NFC Championship Game once since their victory in Super Bowl XXiX, but there was always the expectation of contending for a Lombardi Trophy.
By the time I was out of high-school and on my way down 81 to begin a new life in Blacksburg, the window of opportunity for the 49ers had closed. With the exception of one completely undeserved Wild Card Rally against the Giants in 2002, the next decade was a barren wasteland of botched management, horrendous drafting (Giovanni Carmazzi, Rashawn Woods, Mike Rumph anyone?), and worse coaching (Dennis Erickson, MIke Nolan, Mike Singletary). The team that I just naturally assumed would post 11-13 wins each season struggled to win a third of that. For almost a decade, they were the worst team in what was widely considered the NFL's worst division (nevermind the fact the NFC West placed a participant in the championship game 5 times since 1998).
That's what made this season so damn refreshing. The 49ers figured out how to win close games, and unlike the majority of the last decade, the team didn't beat themselves. That's what made Sunday's classic a bitter pill to swallow.
So what does this have to do with the Hokies?
Virginia Tech, like the 49ers of the late 80s and 90s, has reached that point as a program that there are annual expectations for a conference champinship. Some years, us fans have - realistically or not - higher expectations. The culture has been that way since the 1999 heartbreaker to Peter Warrick's swift feet, but really took off once we joined the ACC. My freshman year was the first of our current 10-win season streak.
Which brings us back full circle: the "window of opportunity". I don't expect it to close next season, or the season after that. Maybe it won't happen until Frank Beamer hangs it up. But, eventually it will happen. That's what makes losses like this years Sugar Bowl so painful; there is no guarantee that we will continue to play in - let alone win - in high profile bowl games.
I don't know why, but I have high hopes for Logan Thomas. I'm not saying he will fill that empty trophy case, but, like Tyrod Taylor before him, there is that feeling of knowing that the team is in good hands. Call it whatever you want: faith, talent, the "it" factor, whatever. Logan has it. And it's exciting. I am comfortable saying our window will stay open for as long as he is on campus.
A couple of months ago, I met up with some classmates from '08 in Hoboken. Amidst our usual shenanigans - Teen Wolf quotes, karaoke, banana costumes in Penn Station - we were able to sit down at a bar, grab some grub, and watched the first LSU-BAMA game. I don't remember which one of us brought it up, but we all recognized how fucking lucky we were to be associated with the winningest college football program in the last decade. It was meant to be rhetorical, but I said, "I will have no idea what to do with myself if we lost to UVA. Bound to happen eventually, right?"
We all started laughing uncontrollably. Seriously. I laughed so hard I gave myself the hiccups. Preposterous! That window will never close.
Comments
Ahh, good times in Hoboken!! Does everyone fuck around in Penn Station? Lots of memories there!!
Penn Station
I passed out there at like 2:30 AM after a bachelor party (not mine) went extremely right.
I was informed that morning
that I stealthily attempted to swipe a slice of pepperoni pizza. By 'stealthily' I mean I knocked over a table and 5 chairs trying to get it.
Oh, and I was thisclose to getting kicked out of a roller derby because I decided to make my own urinal. NBD.
Its ok Sparach
The hate is mutual. Sadly we havent had a classic rematch in some time. I do remember the 90's being a toss up between the two teams though. It was painful yet exhilirating. Much akin to watching Hokie football hit its peaks now.
Might I add:
GO GIANTS!
VT needs to revitalize its special teams, in a big way. I am very confident in our D for the next few seasons; we have play makers in the Front Seven and Backfield. Our offense should do well, so long as the (inexperienced) O-line can perform at least marginally. A lot of people believe the Frankinator can't take us to the next level. Maybe this is true, but without him, VT would never be in the convo to begin with.
Breaking into the Club
What school most recently won its first National Championship? What year did that happen? Which school will be next? Do you think it is too difficult for a school to break into the elite club?
In the Poll Era (1936-) the most recent school was Florida in 1996 (before the BCS). Fla St won their first in 1993. Of the schools that have only won once the last was Washington, who split with Miami in 1991. Colorado and GT split in 1990. College Football Data Warehouse is the same but goes back further than 1936
Bottom line is that it appears the current BCS system favors traditional football power schools. Breaking into that "elite" status is near impossible since it is self supporting and the formula is not kind to outsiders and upstarts (Boise State and even VT). Unless a school can get several consectutive years of outstanding recruiting, have good luck, a strong enough schedule, be in a strong conference, have great coaching, etc... there is no chance at even getting in the mix. In a strong conference it is very difficult to out-recruit the established powers. Witness Fla St recruiting classes even though they haven't been in the ACC CG in a long time. Without winning in such a conference for many years you can't get votes in the polls. It is a big task. I don't see any new schools winning their first NC for a long time. The odds are stacked against such an event. I hope I am wrong.
Florida State
Was just in the ACC CG last season...
True
The point being that they get top 10 recruiting classes consistently even without successful seasons. We rarely get that good despite winning consistently. Would winning a NC change that?
I did some research to find which of the winningest teams have not won the NC. Lots of ways to look at the numbers. There is all time winning percent, number of victories, recent success (2000's, 1990's).
Assuming recent success might be a predictor of who could be the next new NC, Boise St. has the most wins and highest % in the 2000's (2000-2009), followed by VT. Since 1990, Marshall has the most wins, followed by BSU & VT. Marshall has fallen off the last decade so I would count them out. I don't believe BSU was Div 1 prior to 1996 so their record is not complete. I also feel BSU is an outlier because of their easy league schedule. VT has the 7th most wins in the 2000's. Of the teams with more victories, besides BSU, all have won the NC at least once in that decade. VT has more victories in that period than 4 of the 9 BCS champs (5 if you include USC's vacated NC). Interestingly Alabama is way down the list, partly due to vacated wins.
If you look at all time winning % there are 4 schools ahead of VT that have never won a NC. All time wins VT is 2nd behind WVU.
Boil it down by these numbers and we are right in the mix of teams that have won a NC. We seem to be doing the right things. So when do we break through, if ever? Will knociking at the door long enough get us in?
A lot of teams
get top 10 recruiting classes without successful seasons. It drives me nuts! 'Well, they were uh good once, so uh I guess I'll go there..?' I don't understand why the current state of football affairs isn't weighed more heavily with recruits...
I sure hope winning an NC would help our recruiting! It IS doing pretty well right now, from what I hear. Something will give eventually.
Break down the door!
Since no one is letting us in we need to break it down. Knocking is no longer good enough. Can't let things like "the catch" get in our way. We need to show without a doubt we are the best.
good info
trying not to be too much of a homer when i say this -- but i can't think of another program that has a better chance than VT of "breaking into the club" .. the other program that comes to mind for me: oregon .. with arkansas and wisconsin in the mix there too. but we dont play usc or lsu/bama or michigan/osu every season either
Considering our recruiting and resources as opposed to other acc teams like miami, fsu, and clemson, what CFB has accomplished in pretty astounding, if you ask me.