Mens Basketball: #4 Duke (24-3, 11-3) at Virginia Tech (10-17, 2-12) 9PM ESPN2

Television
ESPN2 - Bob Wischusen & LaPhonso Ellis

Radio
Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network - Bill Roth & Mike Burnop

Also available on:
Satellite: Sirius: 84 XM: 84
Digital: Hokies Xtra & TuneIn

Tonights matchup brings the second best team in the ACC up against the second worst team in the ACC. Unfortunately, we are on the wrong end of that statement and have shown why in our last three contests. All three games were lost by 16 or more. The formula to defeat the Hokies is pretty much written in stone for everyone at this point. Prevent the three, get their bigs in foul trouble by driving the lane, keep one big man on the floor to clean up offensive rebounds and allow wide open outside shots and then rain threes like its your birthday. Hopefully Buzz will come out with something different for this game to throw a hammer at the stone. Call me crazy but having Buzz put Henry, Beyer and Pierce on the floor together with Bibbs and Smith outside would at least open my eyes to start the game. Throw something at the Devils that they never thought they would see, even if its just for small spurts to keep things slightly off balance.

That said, lets take a look at what to expect from the Dukies tonight. The top question on everyone's mind is whether or not Jahlil Okafor will play. He sat out their last game against Clemson with a sprained ankle and they won by 22, so Duke showed they can handle things without him on the floor. It does look like he will play but no way Coach K risks him for long if the game isnt close. Duke is in that precarious spot of having to win out to ensure they get a #1 seed in the NCAA but know they will need Okafor in the tourney if they hope to win it all.

Okafor(#15), is a 6'11, 270 lbs forward that has averaged 17.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg and shoots better than 66% from the field. He is a dreadful free throw shooter at 58% and has no outside game to speak of. Almost all of his points come from inside of six feet of the basket. If preventing him from scoring were the only problem here, I would say pack the lane. The problem is he has really talented teammates, so much so that they might be a better team when he isnt on the floor.

Quinn Cook(#2) 6'2, 185 lbs senior guard is second for the Blue Devils in scoring with 15.5 ppg. He also contributes
3.3 rpg and 2.9 apg.

Justise Winslow, (#12) 6'6, 225 lbs freshman forward, is averaging 11.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 1.9 apg. Winslow is another Duke player with a free throw problem though, shooting a miserable 61%.

The third freshmen phenom for the Devils is Tyus Jones, (#5) 6'1, 190 lbs guard. So far this season he has brought 11.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 5.6 apg as the primary point guard for this roster. He shoots better than 40% from outside the arc, so expect a big night from him as well as Cook, who also shoots better than 40% from the three.

All the components are present for a recipe for disaster for Tech. Big man, check, outside shooters, check. If Okafor is unable to go tonight, expect to see alot of Marshall Plumlee,(#40) 7', 255 lbs center who in limited time this season has shot 76% from the field although the scoring will likely come from the other stars putting in a few more baskets each it still gives Duke that dominant body under the basket to clean up uncontested rebounds.

For Tech to win this game, they MUST DEFEND THE PERIMETER, prevent easy drives to the basket and shoot better than 50% from the field on offense. I know how Buzz looks at it, but its been the outside shooting or open points from outside allowing easy drives for our opponents that has unraveled the last three contests. Clemson hit 11 three's, Miami had 11 layups by guards plus 7 three's, and NC State hit 10 three's, thats 33 of 75 points for Clemson, 43 of 76 points for Miami, and 30 out of 69 points from NC State.

How are they going to manage this? They need to play a 2-1-2 or 2-2-1 zone defense for most of the game. Too often the open looks are from guards crossing the lanes and their defenders getting picked. We have to be able to switch off defenders as guards cross the lane.

Duke's three losses came in games where they shot poorly and their opponents shot lights out, especially from outside. Miami shot 50% from outside, and NC State shot over 62% from beyond the arc. Both opponents kept Duke under 29% from outside.

Its a home game, the student section will be packed to see Duke. The fans will also be there to see the opponents. Hopefully the Hokies can find some magic, but I just dont see it happening.

Duke 75 - Virginia Tech 60