Buzzketball Central: #5 Duke Blue Devils (12-1) at Virginia Tech Hokies (11-1) Noon DEC 31 ESPN2

IT'S GAMEDAY! #BeatDuke Cassell 12 PM ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/gzlGzksO7e— VT Men's Basketball (@VT_MBBall) December 31, 2016

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: December 31, 2016 / Noon
Opponent: No. 5/5 Duke
Site: Blacksburg, Va. (Cassell Coliseum)
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network
Talent: Jon Laaser & Mike Burnop
TV/Internet: ESPN2
Talent: Mike Couzens & Cory Alexander
Live Stats: HokieSports.com
Game Notes: Virginia Tech
XM Radio: XM 194 (Internet 956)

Getting the ACC started with a Bang

Buzzketball has started the season about as well as they could, now its time to face the big boys of ACC play. #5 Duke comes to town for a New Years Eve day tussle. If this was later in the day I think the crowd would play a bigger factor but it's a nooner. The Hokies have to come out steady against the Blue Devils, definitely avoiding Duke jumping out to a big early lead. This will be a tough test, especially with the size of the Blue Devil roster. If you thought the Hokies faced a tough challenge when they went up against the Texas A&M bigs, this is a whole different level. Duke sports nine players 6'7 or taller that play enough minutes to cover almost three spots on the floor for the entire game. Let that sink in, roll it around, realize what the predicament might be for the home team.

This game is listed as a sellout but I fear the holidays and the impact it may have on attendance, even with such a high profile opponent in town. This team could really use a solid crowd to help it bounce back if Duke manages to get out to a lead. Duke comes in having only lost to #7 Kansas by two. They have wins over four Power 5 or Ranked opponents. They are coming in after thrashing Elon College but running into the media embarrassment that is Grayson Allen, with his third documented tripping incident in the last two seasons. Allen is indefinitely suspended, so Duke will be missing their second leading scorer coming into this game against the Hokies.

This will be the fifty fourth meeting between the Hokies and Blue Devils. Duke leads the all-time series 45-8, starting all the way back in 1912. The Hokies last victory against the Blue Devils came when Duke was #1, 64-60 in Blacksburg back in 2010. Tech has managed two overtime affairs since then but no success in finishing off a win.

The Blue Devils are coached by Mike Krzyzewski, who has coached Duke to a 982-263 career record, an almost 80% winning percentage. In the 36 years that Coach K has been at the helm, Duke has only managed to not make the NCAA tournament four times, and barring the year he had surgery, and relinquished the helm in 1995, it was only his first three years as head coach that they didn't make it.

One thing to keep in mind when facing Duke is a Coach K mantra, "A winning basketball team makes the opponent react to them, whether they are on offense or defense"

Defensively, the Blue Devils employ a high pressure attacking defense that varies its form and style based on opponents. This season it seems a two three zone with two guards harassing the perimeter ball handler by shifting into passing lanes and making it difficult to get a clean shot or pass the ball. A couple other tenets of a Coach K defense are that his defenses involve getting all five players to play together: talking on defense, seeing the ball, and moving as the ball moves. He expects all five guys to play for the charge as a standard. He also coaches his team that defense continues until the ball is in Duke hands.

Offensively, Duke usually runs a three out, two in Motion offense, which involves the perimeter players looking for bigs at the free throw line to create space, open up driving lanes, or allowing for kickout shots from the corner. The Blue Devils excel at moving without the ball so they are in the right spot to take advantage of a defensive miscue. Duke isn't exactly the fastest paced offense so the Hokies should look to speed them up if they can.

What does that mean for the Hokies?

The Hokies need to come out realizing they are not on the floor with those 300+ pushovers from the last two months. This is big boy ACC basketball at its best so Tech needs to be prepared to force the pace of this game. Duke is not exactly burning the nets down this season so far, shooting only 35% from behind the arc and a mortal 48% from the field total. The Hokies need to try to protect the paint and make Duke earn it hitting jump shots or long range bombs.

This should be a high paced game if the Hokies want to have a chance to win. They need to run the legs off the Duke bigs. They cannot afford a letdown like they had against A&M either, as Duke will much more easily recover. Duke will outsize the Hokies at three of the five spots on the floor for a majority of the game. As we saw against the Aggies though, Tech has the ability to open up a significant lead on a team if they come out fast.

The Blue Devils unlike most of Tech's opponents so far, do not rely on the perimeter shot to score. They much prefer to work the ball inside. The two keys for Tech here is that Leday and Sy have to stay out of early foul trouble and Tech needs to have hands up in a more collapsing style defense today.

The Blue Devils heavily rely on their starting five, four of whom play thirty or more minutes per contest, two others that are above 27 minutes per contest. Tech must find a way to get to the line early and often, hitting their free throws while also getting their opponent in early foul trouble.

Blue Devils Backcourt

Sophomore Luke Kennard, (#5) 6'6, 202 Lbs, Guard, comes in leading the Blue Devils in scoring, putting up 20.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.8 APG and 1.1 SPG. He is the only one of Dukes top five scorers that is averaging over 40% from outside. This is a complete change from last year, when he was the only one of Dukes starters with a terrible outside shot. He also has a deadly short range jumper, accounting for him shooting 52% from the field and is shooting 88% from the line. Many were surprised that Kennard chose to return this season rather than take his skills to the NBA but it definitely has been to Duke's benefit and likely made Kennard a lottery pick in the upcoming draft. Kennard is averaging 36 MPG of playing time.

As mentioned above, Duke will be missing Grayson Allen, (#3) 6'4, 195 Lbs, who was averaging 16 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, all while shooting 81% so far from the line. Behind Allen are two other Blue Devils guards averaging in double figures.

Freshman Frank Jackson, (#15) 6'3, 205 Lbs is averaging 12.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, and 1.7 APG. Jackson comes in shooting 48% from the field, 39% from behind the line and 83% from the line in about 27 MPG. His role will dramatically increase for the duration of Allen's suspension

Matt Jones, (#13) 6'5, 204 Lbs Senior Guard is averaging 7.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG. He is being called on to score a lot less than he was last season, when he averaged double figures. That will likely change during Allen's absence as Duke looks for another shooter to step up. Jones is already averaging 34 MPG of floor time so don't expect to see more of him, just him doing more on the court. Jones is one of Duke's top defenders though with 2.2 SPG and expect to see him covering Chris Clarke when Duke is not in a zone defense.

Blue Devils Frontcourt

Freshman Forward Jayson Tatum, #0, 6'8, 205 lbs is the leading scorer down low for Duke. Tatum is putting up 15.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.2 APG and 2 BPG. He missed the first eight games recovering from a foot injury but since returning his numbers have surged. He shoots a surprisingly poor percentage from the field, at 39% but does manage to shoot 92% from the free throw line. He is now averaging 27 MPG since returning.

Senior Amile Jefferson, #21, 6'9, 224 lbs missed last seasons matchup with the Hokies due to an injury. He has returned this season with a vengeance, averaging a double-double with 14.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2 APG, 1.9 BPG, and 1 SPG while shooting 65% from the field. His one weakness is the charity stripe, where he is only managing to hit 59% so far this season. Jefferson is averaging 30 minutes a game of floor time.

After these two gentlemen, there are a handful of bigs that collectively play what amounts to the Center position for Duke. First among those is Antonio Vrankovic, Sophomore Center, #30, 7'0, 261 Lbs, that plays 11 MPG, averaging 4.1 PPG and 3.9 RPG.

Teaming up with him is Sophomore Forward Chase Jeter, #2, 6'10, 230 Lbs. who is playing 15 MPG and contributing 3.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 1 BPG. Freshman Forward Jack White, #41, 6'7, 215 Lbs gets 8 MPG and contributes 3 PPG and 1.8 RPG. Freshman Center Marques Bolden, #20, 6'11, 245 Lbs has been playing 7 MPG while contributing 2.6 PPG and 1.2 RPG. Freshman Forward Javin DeLaurier averages about 10 MPG, putting up 2.1 PPG and 2.9 RPG.

The numbers above are slightly misleading, as this group of bigs has been used in a hodge podge sequence so far this season by Coach K to cover for injuries among their projected starters. Only Jeter has played in every game. That said, the other scary piece is that not accounted for above is Duke phenom Harry Giles, Freshman Forward, #1, 6'10, 240 lbs who will only be in his third game back from injury. I would expect to see him get about 10 minutes in this game as they work him back into game condition. Center Marques Bolden is another phenom that missed the first the first eight games of the season due to a lower leg injury.

Names the Announcers will Butcher

Coach K is obviously first on this list, even after 36 years of being the Duke coach, trying to say Krzyzewski is a tongue twister. Nick Pagliuca or Antonio Vrankovic would be my honorable mentions in this category.

What to expect from Duke?

The Blue Devils play predominantly a half court high pressure defense in either man to man or zone geared towards making opponents make mistakes. Their goal is to take the ball away any way possible, limiting the number of shots that an opponent takes to instantly give them an advantage on the other end. Relentless attack on the ballhandlers so that they move from defense to offense.

Expect to see a team that is just not touching into all of its potential but also dealing with the suspension of Grayson Allen. There could be some confusion with Allen not on the floor to handle the ball at the top of the key. Also keep in mind that Duke has three freshman phenoms that are all recently back from injury. Only Tatum seems completely back but do expect to see more out of Giles and Bolden in this game as they have had another couple weeks to get better prior to this game.

The Blue Devils are averaging 83.5 PPG and only allowing opponents 61.8 PPG. That's a 21 point average margin of victory so far this season. There are a few extreme blowouts that contribute to that but for the most part Duke has won by double digits in almost all its games. Why is this important? With the number of freshman on this squad and Allen out, if Tech can make this a close contest its not something Duke has had to deal with much and could work in the Hokies favor. Duke has only been within double digits twice this season, once in their loss to Kansas and the other in a nine point win over Michigan State.

Rebounding wise, the Blue Devils may be a nightmare scenario for Tech but so far this season they only average 40 rebounds per night. A team with this size and depth I would have expected to see averaging in the high forties. Part of the explanation though is that they don't miss as often as other teams so there are not rebounds to be had. Duke comes in as a team shooting 56% from inside the arc.

Duke is fairly average when it comes to fouling opponents, giving up about 18 personal fouls per game but no one player stands out as consistently in foul trouble. Hopefully the Hokies ability to speed up the game and stretch the opponent will lead to a few more opportunities as they force defenders to reach.

The Hokies

Tech needs to be ready to keep a high paced tempo the entire game without letting up if they want to win this matchup. They have to be able to get a high number of transition baskets while forcing Duke out of its comfort zone in methodically attacking the ball. Essentially force Duke to deal with their own medicine when they are on offense.

Tech will have a tough time winning the lane so it has to be able to hit its jumpers, especially critical is hitting its perimeter shots. Tech likely needs to shoot better than 50% from outside to be a factor in this game.

#WednesdayWisdom pic.twitter.com/cilWEoX8aU— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) December 28, 2016

This may seem counterintuitive but they still need to Pound the Paint, as both Leday and Sy need to play a major role in this game. Getting the ball inside and forcing Duke's bigs to adjust to the Hokies challenging them inside. Allen should also play a major factor in possibly getting the Blue Devils in some foul trouble. One thing to remember though is that Duke is averaging almost five blocks per game as a team so the Hokies need to make sure that they get quality looks at the basket.

Highlight of the UMBC Game

The continuing evolution of Chris Clarke. This was a second straight double-double that followed a triple-double. Total for the last three games from Clarke is 52 points, 35 rebounds, 14 assists, 2 blocks, and 7 steals.

In Closing

Less talented and completely outsized. Those are the words many are using to compare Tech to Duke for this matchup. I would argue that they are of a differing talent but the size aspect will play a factor. Tech has to use its speed and athleticism. Draw on Buzz' bootcamp. Be ready to go for forty minutes of non-stop high pressure basketball. Welcome to the ACC schedule.

The Hokies have to work the ball to the open man and hit those shots when they get them. One of the main reasons that Duke has won by such big margins this season is that they have kept opponents shooting percentage down to about 40% from the floor. That gives them almost a 8% edge compared to how Duke has done on the offensive end and that's barring making opponents make other mistakes with the ball before they even manage to get shots off.

I expect to see Buzz stretch the floor, especially on defense with Allen out. They will try to attack Duke before they even manage to get across half court so they are able to limit Duke's time to set up offensive plays but also hope to create transition baskets or foul line opportunities.

I really wanted to be able to say that Tech would win this game in an extremely close affair but I think that Duke's size will come into play at some point and the way Tech responds will likely decide this contest. That said, lets throw caution to the wind and go Tech wins 85-83, with overtime possibly needed.

Greatness is always preceded by separation. Your separation is preparation for your purpose. What separates real people, is the middle.— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) December 30, 2016