VT vs OSU Line movement

Tkper's I'm not a huge sports better but often pay attention to the lines. After hearing the news about Cam on one of the threads I went to check out the line. To my surprise the line is now at -4.5 down from -6.5.

But 77% of public bets are coming in on OSU. Meaning sharks are betting so much on VT vegas continues to drop the line despite of the public going in heavy on OSU.

So the experts are betting big on VT, public is on OSU. In my limited experience this means there's something personnel wise, schematically, etc that sharks see that the public doesn't.

Any thoughts?

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It doesn't mean anything. The "sharks" go against the public because that's just how you make money in that business. Nobody gets anywhere betting with the public.

That doesn't add up. The sharks bet on who they think will cover the line. Would make no sense for them to always bet against the public and they don't.

From what I understand they are pretty sophisticated in how they bet on games, insider info, data, expert analysis and are trying to find arbitrage in spread. Seems they're seeing something in our game. This is interesting to me because like many people on this forum I'm a little worried about the matchup. It appears the sharks are feeling pretty good about VT while the public is heavy on OSU.

sol-a-rex

Watched the highlights from Texas OSU game and noticed Texas's interior defensive line play was very disruptive. If we play like that we win a low scoring game.

If OSU plays like they did against Oklahoma, it could be a long day for the good guys.

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

I watched that game this week too and noted the same thing. Also their special teams suck, so definitely a exploit opportunity there.

Fully expect them to come out and try to 2014 ECU/2016 Syracuse us. Get some big plays on the secondary, and if we fold then they'll keep mashing the gas. Hopefully we can get in their and rattle them early.

Isn't every bet a bet against the public?

When one bets, they either think the public consensus (an amalgam of thousands or even millions of emotional, analytical, random, informed, uninformed, misinformed, etc. opinions) has the line too high or too low. It's called gambling, not investing, for a reason.

Every bet placed is against the house. Whether that be a casino or bookie. The person taking bets gives you lines and you make your bet accordingly.

But the house is just balancing the bets with the point spread - which is basically a reflection of the individual bookie's/house's bets and generally very close to the consensus general public's bets.

So every bet is essentially a bet against the public at the moment the bet is placed.

The opening line is the big house's best guess as to what will balance the public's bets. There is no wizard behind the curtain pulling the strings to move lines.

I'm amazed at the number of people who bet on sports - even heavily - who have little idea how it works.

This is incorrect. The sharps bet on who they think covers the line. Vegas moves lines to try and get the split to as close to 50/50 on either team so they make money regardless on the "juice"

I dug into this notion a little as well. The idea that Vegas makes money in the middle. 50/50 and money off the juice is part of the story. Apparently, they also make money over betting on the losing side and have ways to manipulate that the line to create the scenarios. Albeit more risky.

sol-a-rex

Every season I give myself $20 to bet on football. When I bust, I'm done. I limit myself to $5 per bet in the hopes that if I do hit big, I don't blow it all with stupid bets. My account hit $150 halfway through the season and then Miami happened. I broke my own rule and bet nearly everything I had because I believed we would win. I tried to recover by betting most of what was left on the GT game. As you can imagine in pretty much done for the season. I hit on a couple key other games to salvage my account (betting the under against LOLUVa, taking Auburn over Bama and UGA the second time). However, with what little is left in my account, in going all in on VT to win.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

My account hit $150 halfway through the season and then Miami happened. I broke my own rule and bet nearly everything I had because I believed we would win. I tried to recover by betting most of what was left on the GT game.

So you bet on the two most difficult teams on our schedule, both back-to-back road games, the latter of which was against a unique scheme after a short week due to our team traveling 15 hours over night to get home? You went full tilt.

Twitter me

I will in no way attempt to defend my actions.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I'd say the "sharks" are looking at the advanced analytics while the general betting public is simply going by the eyeball test. If you look at the range of predictive models out there, like Massey, Sagarin, FPI, S&P+, and others, you'll see that they're mostly all predicting a toss-up or close OSU win.

“You got one guy going boom, one guy going whack, and one guy not getting in the endzone.”
― John Madden (describing VT's offense?)

That's what it seems like. The eyeball test scares me but I'd love nothing more than a Bud Foster beat down on high powered offense like OSU.

sol-a-rex

I'd like to meet an "actual" shark (not one of the guys who claims to be) who actually makes money gambling on sports.

Do they wear badges that say shark? How does Vegas know the difference between the public and sharks?

"with all due respect, and remember I’m sayin’ it with all due respect, that idea ain’t worth a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin gettin’ it on" - Ricky Bobby

Assuming size of bets. Guessing these guys are coming in with large amounts while public trickles in 50-100 per bet.

sol-a-rex

Sharks have fins?

But seriously - I guess I would consider you a shark if you were consistently making money. You're a public if you don't bet often or hover near neutral/losing money

Go find the guy that put the fear of god into casinos during the World Series

Rip his freaking head off!

Have you read the Signal and The Noise by Nate Silver? It's one of my favorites. In it, Nate Silver has a chapter where he talks about Haralabos "Bob" Voulgaris, a professional gambler who bets on Basketball games. Basically he uses a combination of advanced analytics and an insane number of hours actually watching the sport to see where he thinks conventional wisdom is missing the mark. This is a point that Silver repeats throughout the book: qualitative observations can supplement quantitative analysis when done in an intelligent way.

My point being, I don't think it's as simple as they know the numbers and the public is going on the eyeball test. Personally I think it's odd that OSU puts up big points against some teams and then falls apart randomly against, say Texas. There could be some kind of exploitable mismatch there, which if it exists, I have faith that Bud will find it.