ACC Wheel of Destiny 2017

We're still too far away from a circle of suck on either side of the ACC, with three teams undefeated in conference, and three teams with no conference wins.

But, we are close to seeing some teams officially eliminated from contention.

UNC is 0-4 in conference. We can knock them completely out. Technically, it would require Miami (currently 3-0) to win, but I highly doubt that a team with a losing conference record will win the division.

The loser of Pitt (0-3) at Duke (1-3) will also be eliminated a Miami win. Well, Pitt might still have an outside chance if they can force a multi-way tie at 4-4, but it's way too early to worry about those kinds of situations. Duke will definitely be out with a loss and Miami win.

Louisville at 1-3 is most likely out. In order to regain control of their destiny, they need 2 BC losses, 3 Clemson losses, and 4 NC State losses, in addition to Syracuse losing another game. Otherwise, they would have to rely on a boatload of tiebreakers with teams that end at 5-3. Both NC State and Clemson have four conference wins, and one of them is guaranteed a fifth since they have yet to play each other. Louisville is definitely eliminated with their next loss.

I've posted the full standings here.

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Comments

It begins...

It saddens me not to see UVa mentioned here.

It just seems...
... wrong.

Let them believe. There's a good chance they'll win their next two games (BC, Pitt) to get to 7-1 and be ranked #17 or so, which will bring the "fans" out of the woodwork. Then they'll lose their final four (GT, Louisville, Miami, VT) and their "fans" will say who gives a shit it's basketball season

There's a good chance they'll win their next two games (BC, Pitt) to get to 7-1

We all know that you meant "in their wildest dreams, because Left was going to expose them as frauds"

You know

Somehow I completely forgot that you need to WIN to be included in the circle of suck...you can't just lose.

Which means, at some point in all these years..Uva beat at least one acc opponent

UVA went 0-8 in the conference in 2013. They're the only Coastal team other than Duke to go unwinfeated. Duke didn't have a conference win from 2005-07.

Leg for "unwinfeated"

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I can't believe it took me five days to see 'unwinfeated'

Looks like both divisions of the ACC are top heavy, unlike years before where they were just middle ground and anyone could win.

What's
Important
Now

Give it time.

Sometimes we live no particular way but our own

Week 8 update

Still can't do a circle of suck on either side, with NC State and Miami both being undefeated in conference, and UNCheat being completely defeated in conference.

Coastal:
-UNCheat is out! 0-5 in conference can't get them anywhere when Miami is sitting at 4-0.
-Duke (1-4) is unable to control their own destiny. Their only hope is a multi-team tie at 4-4. They will be out with a loss or Miami win.
-Pitt (1-3) is borderline. They are out with a loss and a Miami win.
-Only Miami (4-0), VT (2-1), and UVA (2-1) control their own destiny.
-GT (3-1) still needs Miami to drop two games to regain control.

Atlantic:
-NC State (4-0) and Clemson (4-1) control their own destiny. Since they still have to play each other, we know that one of them will get to at least 5 conference wins. However, NC State plays ND next week, so a NC State/Clemson win combo next week won't help in the standings.
-FSU (2-3), Louisville (2-3), and Wake Forest (0-3) will be eliminated with their next loss. (4 loss team can't overtake a 5 win Clemson/NC State.)
-Syracuse and BC are both 2-2. Still need help, but still have a cushion.

Key week 9 games:
-FSU at BC (Friday night, elimination game for FSU)
-Miami at UNCheat (at noon, so a Miami win would eliminate Duke)
-Louisville at Wake (12:20, loser is eliminated)
-UVA at Pitt (12:30, possible elimination game for Pitt)
-Duke at VT (elimination game for Duke if Miami loses)
-GT at Clemson

FSU at BC (Friday night, elimination game for FSU)

Not just ACC Atlantic elim but essentially a bowl game elim for FSU, since they need to win 4 of last 5 which includes games vs Clemson and UF.

If FSU misses a bowl, that fan base is gonna go levels of insane heretofore only witnessed in theoretical models.

"I mean, you know, fuck them, but good for them." -Too Druck to Funk

I don't play the "essentially" game, especially not in the ACC.

FSU has become the first Atlantic team officially out of contention. At 2-5, with only 11 games, one more loss will knock them out of bowl eligibility. (Although, let's go for 2 more losses for good measure.)

I had forgotten about WF beating BC earlier in the season, and that was throwing my numbers off a bit. BC, Louisville, and WF all have 3 conference losses. A loss would eliminate any of them from contention. A Clemson win would prevent all of them from controlling their own destiny.

I should have caught this last week, but Louisville has already lost control of their destiny, because they would need NC State and Clemson to both lose out in order to jump both teams, and that's impossible. At best, they would need a multi-way tie of 3-loss teams. The other teams still have a slight chance, because they have either NC State left on their schedule, or they beat Clemson (in the case of Syracuse).

Louisville is out with 4 losses.

Duke is out, now that Miami has 5 wins.

Full week 9 update

Coastal:
-Since Miami has 5 conference wins, any team with 4 or more conference losses is automatically out. That includes Duke and UNCheat.
-The only chance that Pitt (2-3) has at winning involves a tie of 3-loss teams. They will be eliminated with a loss or Miami win.
-What actually sucks for VT is that we only have tiebreakers over non-contenders.
-The winner of GT (3-2) and UVA (2-2) will actually be rooting for us next week. Both teams need Miami to lose some games to gain control of their destiny. GT actually needs Miami to lose out.

Atlantic:
-Now that Clemson is 5-1, any team with 4 or more losses is out, which would be FSU and Louisville (both 2-4).
-WF (2-3) and BC (3-3) would require a tie of 3-loss teams. Both would be eliminated with a Clemson win. BC has a bye, and WF plays ND next week.
-Syracuse (2-2) is kind of stuck in the middle.

For WF or BC to have a chance, they need NC State to beat Clemson, and then have both teams lose out.

Going to do this in multiple posts because of length, but I'm going to start by saying something extremely unpopular:

UVA's losses the last two weeks have actually hurt the Hokies' chances of winning the Coastal.

Should we lose to Miami this coming weekend, there are 0 scenarios under which we can win the Coastal whereas UVA can still win the Coastal if they win out and Miami loses to Pitt.

Had UVA lost only to BC, then the Hokies could win the Coastal with a loss to Miami if we'd entered a 3-way tie with UVA and Miami (we beat UVA, obviously). Divisional records would be VT 5-1, Miami 4-2, UVA 5-1. We beat UVA h2h

Had UVA lost only to Pitt, then the same scenario exists only now UVA is 4-2 in-division, so we win the tiebreaker by virtue of being 5-1.

I'll go more into our clinch and elimination scenarios in the later posts.

Even if we don't win the Coastal, there is something refreshing about not having to go down the rabbit hole to the third, fourth, or fifth tiebreakers.

Don't we also need Miami to lose out?

Recruit Prosim

Still need two more outcomes in the Atlantic for a circle of suck -- Louisville to beat Syracuse (week 12), and Clemson to beat NC State.

Then, FSU beat WF beat Louisville beat Syracuse beat Clemson beat NC State beat FSU.

If Pitt beats UNC on November 9, then there is no circle of suck for the Coastal, or for the entire conference.

There's another possibility for the Atlantic circle of suck -- If NC State beats WF in week 12, we can get WF beat BC beat Louisville beat FSU beat Syracuse beat Clemson beat NC State beat WF.

The Coastal can't even make a circle of suck with a winless team in the middle or undefeated team on the outside. Duke's only win is over winless UNC. We either need Duke to beat GT or UNC to beat Pitt to even have any sort of circle made.

Now, then, to expand upon BlueHokie's post in a very TL;DR format... (part 1 of 2)

ATLANTIC DIVISION

WF
Eliminated with:
* a loss
* a CLE win
* two NCSU wins
* two BC wins

Wins the Atlantic with:
* a three-way tie with NCSU and CLE State h2h
* a four-way tie with NCSU, CLE and SYR

BC
Eliminated with:
* a loss
* a CLE win
* two NCSU wins
* three WF wins

Wins the Atlantic with:
* a three-way tie with NCSU and CLE
* a four-way tie with NCSU, CLE and SYR

SYR
Eliminated with:
* a loss
* two CLE wins
* a CLE loss to NCSU + 1 more NCSU win
* a CLE win over NCSU + NCSU wins over BC and WF

Wins the Atlantic with:
* 4 wins + a CLE loss to NCSU + 3 NCSU losses
* 4 wins + CLE win over NCSU + CLE loss to FSU + NCSU loss to BC or WF

CLE
Eliminated with:
* a loss to NCSU + an additional NCSU win
* a loss + SYR wins out
* two losses + a BC loss
* two losses + a WF loss
* two losses + three SYR wins

Wins the Atlantic with:
* two wins
* a win over FSU + two NCSU losses + a SYR loss
* a win over NCSU + an additional NCSU loss + a SYR loss
* two losses + three NCSU losses + both BC and WF win out

NCSU
Eliminated with any of the following:
* a loss to CLE + a CLE win over FSU
* a CLE win over FSU + a loss to BC + a loss to WF + a loss to UNC
* a CLE loss to FSU + a loss to BC + a loss to WF + a loss to UNC + a BC win over SYR
* a CLE loss to FSU + a loss to BC + a loss to WF + a loss to UNC + 2 additional WF wins
* a CLE loss to FSU + a loss to BC + a loss to WF + a loss to UNC + 4 SYR wins

Wins the Atlantic with:
* 4 win
* a win over CLE + 1 additional win
* a loss to CLE + a CLE loss to FSU + wins over both BC and WF + SYR wins ou
* a win over CLE + a CLE loss to FSU + a BC loss + a WF loss + at least one SYR loss

Reserved for COASTAL DIVISION scenarios. Been doing this by hand and need a break >.>

That's why i wait a couple of weeks and let the teams sort it out themselves.

It's pretty simple now.

Coastal

Miami (6-0) can clinch this coming week with a UVA loss or the following week by beating UVA.
UVA (3-2) can clinch by winning out and Miami losing out.

Miami's worst possible record is 6-2, which means any team with 3 or more conference losses is out. VT's best possible record would be 6-2, and the only tie possible for them to be part of is with Miami at 6-2, and Miami has the tiebreaker. There is no possibility of a three team tie at 6-2 based on the remaining games.

Out of contention:
VT (3-2), UNCheat (0-6), Duke (1-5), Pitt (2-3), GT (3-3)

Atlantic

Clemson (6-1) can clinch with a win or NC State loss.
NC State (4-1) can clinch with 3 wins and a Clemson loss.

Out of contention:
Florida State (3-4), Louisville (2-4), WF (2-3), BC (3-3), Syracuse (3-3)

The rest of the P5 break down here.

I'll still be pulling for UVa to lose the rest of their games.

So Coastal "options" are UVA and Miami.

Go Tigers?

___

-What we do is, if we need that extra push, you know what we do? -Put it up to fully dipped? -Fully dipped. Exactly. It's dork magic.

UNC finally won a conference game (Pitt), but we still can't make a circle of suck, thanks to Miami. But there aren't enough divisional wins among the other teams to even make one with Miami on the outside.

The Atlantic did it first this year!