Stats summary: which ones are most important?

I know we need to go 1-0 against ODU, but it's hard to get excited about them as an opponent. If Jack Click is not playing in the 4th quarter, you'll know something is very wrong. Night game in Lane Stadium against Clemson is huge, but that's still 10 days away. (I won't be able to attend that game, sadly. I need at least 3 of you to cheer extra loud to make up for my absence!)

But, I saw this on the VTSCOOP website(see below), and a few things jumped out at me.

Scoring Defense is pretty good, and so much more important than yards. Pedestrian ranks for rushing and passing defense are overcome by very good Opponent Red Zone Conversion percentage.

I expect our offense stats will drop a bit as we get into some games against much tougher opponents, but so far, so good! I just hope Josh and Cam are not reading all the glowing press and stay focused.

Punting is significant, too, I think. While our 3rd down conversion rate is pretty lousy, the punt team, including our Aussie, has saved our bacon on a number of occasions when the offense has not gotten into a rhythm.

What say you?

http://virginiatech.247sports.com/Bolt/Stats-Early-strengths-and-weaknes...


Offense

Scoring Offense/PPG: 45.0 (26th nationally/4th ACC)
Rushing Offense: 200.67 (40th nationally/6th ACC)
Passing Offense: 281.7 (38th nationally/6th ACC)
Total Offense: 482.3 (35th nationally/8th ACC)
Third-Down Conversions: 36.59% (92nd nationally/11th ACC)
Red Zone Conversions: 31.25% (52nd nationally/7th ACC)

Defense
Scoring Defense/PPG: 13.7 (19th nationally/4th ACC)
Rushing Defense: 122.67 (46th nationally/8th ACC)
Passing Defense: 242.7 (81st nationally/10th ACC)
Total Defense: 365.3 (62nd nationally/10th ACC)
Opponent Third-Down Conversions: 26.92% (23rd nationally/5th ACC)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions: 25.0% (14th nationally/2nd ACC)


Special Teams

Punting Yards per Game: 230.7 (14th nationally/3rd ACC)
Punt Returns: 10.57 AVG/return (38th nationally/6th ACC)
Kickoff Returns: 26.00 AVG/return (26th nationally/3rd ACC)
Field Goals: 60.0% (87th nationally/9th ACC)

Miscellaneous
Penalties: 37.7 Yards/Game (23rd nationally/3rd ACC)
Time of Possession: 31:08.67/Game (50th nationally/8th ACC)
Turnover Margin: +1.67 (7th nationally/2nd ACC)

Author
Evan G. Watkins

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Comments

I have a tough time looking at total defense and offense stats this early in the season. Virginia Tech hasn't played a really, really good defense yet. OTOH, They played arguably one of the better offenses in the nation in WVU. I'm interested to see how this season goes, but early seasons stats don't mean much. I always wait for game 6 or 7 to start looking at them in terms of rankings, if you get my meaning.

Stats summary: which ones are most important?

Time of Possession

Don't let this comment take away from the fact that Arkansas blew a 24 point 2nd half lead in the Belk Bowl.
Don't let the Belk Bowl take away from the fact that Matt Ryan blew a 25 point 2nd half lead in the Super Bowl.

Of course!

HTHokie93

Damn, 46 seconds late

Came here hoping Alum hadn't said exactly this haha. I just need to give up, I'm never going to be able to TKP hard enough

That team sure did suck last night. They just plain sucked! I mean I've seen teams suck before, but that was the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.

Stats summary: which ones are most important?

Time of Possession The player wearing #25 on game day!!!

FTFY

Let's Go

HOKIES

We need to talk.

live footage of Joel right now:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Uh oh, Alum, I think Joel is going to break up with you.

This week, on as The Key Play Turns...

WHICH ONES ARE MOST IMPORTANT?

Scoring Defense is pretty good, and so much more important than yards. Pedestrian ranks for rushing and passing defense are overcome by very good Opponent Red Zone Conversion percentage.
I expect our offense stats will drop a bit as we get into some games against much tougher opponents, but so far, so good! I just hope Josh and Cam are not reading all the glowing press and stay focused.
Punting is significant, too, I think. While our 3rd down conversion rate is pretty lousy, the punt team, including our Aussie, has saved our bacon on a number of occasions when the offense has not gotten into a rhythm.
What say you?
http://virginiatech.247sports.com/Bolt/Stats-Early-strengths-and-weaknes...
Offense
Scoring Offense/PPG: 45.0 (26th nationally/4th ACC)
Rushing Offense: 200.67 (40th nationally/6th ACC)
Passing Offense: 281.7 (38th nationally/6th ACC)
Total Offense: 482.3 (35th nationally/8th ACC)
Third-Down Conversions: 36.59% (92nd nationally/11th ACC)
Red Zone Conversions: 31.25% (52nd nationally/7th ACC)
Defense
Scoring Defense/PPG: 13.7 (19th nationally/4th ACC)
Rushing Defense: 122.67 (46th nationally/8th ACC)
Passing Defense: 242.7 (81st nationally/10th ACC)
Total Defense: 365.3 (62nd nationally/10th ACC)
Opponent Third-Down Conversions: 26.92% (23rd nationally/5th ACC)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions: 25.0% (14th nationally/2nd ACC)
Special Teams
Punting Yards per Game: 230.7 (14th nationally/3rd ACC)
Punt Returns: 10.57 AVG/return (38th nationally/6th ACC)
Kickoff Returns: 26.00 AVG/return (26th nationally/3rd ACC)
Field Goals: 60.0% (87th nationally/9th ACC)
Miscellaneous
Penalties: 37.7 Yards/Game (23rd nationally/3rd ACC)

Time of Possession: 31:08.67/Game (50th nationally/8th ACC)
Turnover Margin: +1.67 (7th nationally/2nd ACC)

FTFY

But in all seriousness, I appreciate you consolidating all of this info to help digest it all at once

Who scores the most points

HTHokie93

Holy crap, John Madden is a TKP'er?!?

A key for this team is opposing third down conversion percentage. We have no depth at d line and need to get off the field when we have the opportunity to do so. We're pretty good but can do a better job of it and it will pay huge dividends. Time of possession will be very important with this team because our two deep is not so solid on defense and if we can keep our ones fresh we can generate more pass rush, consistently fit gaps etc... Just go back to the Delaware game when Tim Settle went against the flow of the offensive line instead of playing his assignment and beating the lineman to the spot. Yea he beat the guy easily, but opened a huge hole that resulted in one of their biggest gains of the day. Get those big boys off the field on third down and we will do just fine.

So, do you think we should slow play Clemson like Delaware tried to do against us? Score or not, just burn clock to give the defense rest and limit the possessions of the Clemson offense?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Ummm yes, clearly. Slowing the game down and burning clock would have us winning big on Time of Possession, and as we all know, T.O.P. is the most important stat. Ergo, do that and cruise to victory.

Don't let this comment take away from the fact that Arkansas blew a 24 point 2nd half lead in the Belk Bowl.
Don't let the Belk Bowl take away from the fact that Matt Ryan blew a 25 point 2nd half lead in the Super Bowl.

just like Delaware cruised to victory...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

CONJECTURE

I'm not suggesting intentionally slow playing the game because that can cause other issues. You don't want to get out of your offensive groove or not go for chunk yardage because you might put your defense back on the field too soon. You always play what you're given. Against ECU we were lucky in that they gave us 10 yard out routes every play so we had long sustained drives AND scored. But I wouldn't tailor the offense around winning TOP, I just think you emphasize getting stops on third down.

We need to score anyway possible, as fast or as slow possible, and as many times as possible. A KEY to this game is morale. Just like when we decapitated the KING OF THE SHOE, we got up early, established a sense that we COULD win, and as the game progressed you could see the buy in from all aspects of the team. Every play should be designed to score - on that play. The big boys up front will feel a whole lot fresher when we're leading the game - and they are going to have to play the overwhelming majority of snaps for us to have a chance.

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

every play being designed to score on that play isn't exactly how football works. QB sneaks on 3rd/4th and inches, plays intentionally set up to run out of bounds and stop the clock, etc etc

Chem PhD '16

Sure. But in the broader context we don't need to be trying to just burn clock. Most plays are designed to score. Not counting 4anx 1 or taking a knee.

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

So all those quick outs and curls Cam ran against ECU this weekend were less than effective because he didn't score on any of them?

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

I stick with my point - most plays are designed to score - even the short passes. If every block is executed properly as drawn up, it should score.

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

Plays are designed to get a new set of downs in three or fewer tries.

Eh this is very simplistic. Yeah the offense wants to score a touchdown on every play, but not every play is designed to score a touchdown. If it were we'd just throw a hail mary every single play. Also, running out the clock is a legitimate strategy, and I've definitely noticed Fuente use that in multiple close games such as Pitt and Notre Dame.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Yeah the offense wants to score a touchdown on every play, but not every play is designed to score a touchdown. If it were we'd just throw a hail mary every single play.

I don't get this. Hail marys are desperation last second plays. Aside from a few plays (kneel downs, qb sneaks, last minute drill to get out of bounds) the plays are drawn up to score. Tunnel screens, off tackle runs, all of them. Sure, some plays seem to be more likely to score, but when the x's and o's are drawn up, they don't plan on the guy with the ball being tackled. They draw the x's and o's so the guy scores. When we "set up" the defense with the jet sweep then hit them with the qb up the middle for a score, do you think they drew up the sweep so that it wouldn't score? If blocked properly, it scores. It so happens that it is very hard to execute all the blocks of a given play, so that the added element of surprise/deception often yields the home run.

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

Even QB Sneaks can score, if everything goes well. See: 4th and Logan, October 8, 2011.

Do you honestly think a 5 yard curl on 3rd and 4 is designed to score? Of course its not, its designed to get a first down. Its not a bad thing for something to be designed to obtain an intermediate goal.

3rd down conversion, whether offense or defense, is just another measure of how well the team is moving the ball. The #1 indicator of how likely a team is to make it is the number of yards to go, not something inherently good or bad about their third down performance.

But how can one judge ball movement on 3rd down if one never allows itself to get into a 3rd down situation.

Don't let this comment take away from the fact that Arkansas blew a 24 point 2nd half lead in the Belk Bowl.
Don't let the Belk Bowl take away from the fact that Matt Ryan blew a 25 point 2nd half lead in the Super Bowl.

I think net yards per punt is probably a much more descriptive statistic than punt yards per game. Punt yards per game is closely linked to 3rd down conversion rate, but doesn't say much about how good your specialist is. Net yards per punt can tell you how well you can flip the field every time you punt and combines both kicking AND coverage quality.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

In that same vein starting field position is a big one. I know its not on the list but WVU didn't start a single drive beyond their own 27 yard line. That is huge when you look at the entire game. Most teams can only produce so many 70 yard drives. When you make them travel that far you're looking at a low touchdown percentage.

Our lack of penalties and turnover margin are incredible...we probably aren't where we are without those. Looking at the pass defense numbers, ya wouldn't exactly think we're loaded back there. I'd like to see our sack margin as well...has to be pretty decent (hopefully they stay that way with the two defensive fronts we're about to face).

"I'm a Miller Lite guy, always have been, since I was 8." -John Daly

The stat that matters most?

I used to think TOP mattered the most. But offenses have changed since then and it doesn't matter much when when you play against prolific and effective spread offenses and can't stop them.

Let's Go

HOKIES

Cam Phillips is the leading receiver.

Our Punt unit is pushing other teams far back in their own end

we're 3-0, halfway to making a bowl

Hokies, Local Soccer, AFC Ajax, Ravens

we're 3-0, halfway to making a bowl 1/5th of the way to the Natty Champ trophy

FTFY

I think if you asked Coach Fu, he would say turnover margin. I read a lot of Phil Steel, and he says to bet on a team that has lost a stretch of close games due to turnovers.

In Bud we trust

Yes, yes, yes. Turnovers, the morale-killers. How can you put a value on it? At least 6 points (other team scores, or the 6 you were often about to get?) Turnovers.

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

I don't have the analysis behind it, but Bill Connelly who developed the S&P+ model states that turnovers are worth about 5 points. I would think it's because you're taking away an opponent's opportunity for points and now have an opportunity yourself - so it isn't worth an entire 14 points swing of erasing an opponent's TD and getting on yourself. Or even 6 point swing for FGs since a lot of drives don't end in any points at all.
Here's where I saw his mention about a turnover being worth 5 points: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2017/9/17/16322856/college-football-we...

"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

Looks like the 5 points per turnover was developed through an average.

On average, a turnover is worth about five points when it comes to the field position the offenses loses and the field position the defense gains for its own offense. Sometimes you get turnovers of the arm-punt variety (long bombs that are picked off, serve the same function as punts, and do little damage in the field position battle), and sometimes the defense recovers a fumble at its one-yard line and takes it 99 yards, in essence a 13-point turnover. But without even working turnover points into consideration, the impact of turnovers is obvious. A five-point swing in an otherwise easy game is going to raise (or lower) your win expectancy a decent amount.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-fiv...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-ta...

Kickoff Returns: 26.00 AVG/return (26th nationally/3rd ACC)

How is this value calculated? Is it based off of the one return we've seen this year (squib kick to ECU before the half) or does every touchback count as 25 yards? Regardless, there are not 25 kickers (or kickoff units) that I would pick over Joey Slye and our guys.

.....
95% of what I say is sarcastic. The other 5% is usually taken out of context.

or is it our returns when the opponent kicks off?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Yeah, you're right. I'm an idiot.

Do they even keep stats for Kickoff Teams? (besides the touchback tracker for Slye that's obviously done by a Hokie)

Answer to my own question: Kicker Stats

.....
95% of what I say is sarcastic. The other 5% is usually taken out of context.

Number of Wins

If you're reading the above post and thinking, "is this guy serious?!?," you can safely assume I'm not.

Did it really take that long for the most reasoned post to emerge???

"I play real sports, not trying to be the best at exercising..." - KP

I would just like to point out that, so far this season, we have thrown more interceptions that fans at the LOLUVa spring game.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

If you're reading the above post and thinking, "is this guy serious?!?," you can safely assume I'm not.

Besides final score, of course...

Yards per Pass Attempt and Turnovers. Win those battles and you almost always win.

[Note: The predictive strength of YPA goes down when both QBs are well below avg or well above avg - or the difference is small]

Ex: If you look at the WVU game:

Jackson 8.7
Grier 6.9

Turnovers:
VT 0
WV 1

Grier put up big yardage numbers - leading many to think he had a great game. But his YPA were below avg for a college QB and he committed the lone turnover of the game. Given this, the outcome of the game should not have been surprising despite the big passing yards -- and if not for 2 missed near-gimme FGs - it not surprisingly could have been worse.

Defensive stats are so skewed now with spread teams, I'd say points per game and turnovers.

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

I'm so happy.

Points per Drive
Points per drive allowed
Percentage of drives ending with a kick

I think it's interesting that we rank better when using "scoring" rather than yards in pretty much all of the categories. I don't know if that comes down to coaching or luck.

I'd say that's directly coordinated to starting field position. The first two games of this season we gave our opponents a long field to work with and had an advantage by the time the field flipped. Our special teams has been great this year.

Bourbon consumed pregame.

Seated Jumping attendance during Enter Sandman.

Loudness of Lane when on defense.

.
"Step on a crack, break Miami's bak"
- ThatOneGuy

- hurricanes are uncontrollable and the European model predicts continued chaos.
they never be bak until they learn to play together as a team.

Jumping attendance during Enter Sandman.
Loudness of Lane when on defense.

These, for sure!

Hokie in West Africa...sadly, I can't jump up and down hard enough for it to be felt in Lane

Third down efficiency is the most important stat for this team, especially with the defense being thin up front. Once VT started getting stops, you could see that the DL could almost stop the run with only one linebacker supporting, WHEN THEY WERE FRESH. The less the defense is on the field, the better.

Five star get after it 100 percent Juice Key-Playing. MAN

So you're saying the most important stat is time of possession? French is on the TOP team!

"Facyson is a baller."
-CFB

Times you went 1-0

Never crimp your blasting caps with your teeth. - Dr Haycocks

Its always 110 Holden...said every mining engineer ever.

Honestly Wins and Losses are all I care about. Everything else is just gravy...

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

The only stat that matters is the amount of pass yardage between Boise st and LOLUVa

You put those words together, those are my favorite words, Popeyes and bahama
- Mike Burnup