Lunardi's Bracketology Pt. 2: Hokies move to 11 seed

Why? I'm not sure. LOLUVA is the top overall seed after losing to an unranked team at HOME (i mean, go hokies but it's true). Not only that but the Hokies have moved from a 10 seed to an 11 seed after beating NC State and the #1 team in the country. I was expecting an 8 or 9 following the big win and don't really understand what we did wrong. Also, I should probably be more understanding that this isn't the real bracket and that as long as we're in who cares.

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Comments

Well I mean clearly, we didn't have a great week, and had to fall. I mean we only had wins over the current RPI #69 (nice) team and @ RPI #1. We clearly disappointed Lunardi and only hurt our resume with such a weekend.

But in reality, this is Lunardi right now

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

“I turned down 12 other opportunities. You know what I mean?” - Fuente

That shot killed the movie, IMO

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

No way.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Yeah, I thought that was a pretty cool shot. Drove home the point Pennywise wasn't of this world.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Drove home the point Pennywise wasn't of this world

If someone didn't know that by this point in the movie....uhh....well, I'd be dumbfounded.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

So on his twitter feed he essentially tried to revamp his bracket based on the committees'. That's why he lowered Michigan State as well, to match their seeding there. His reasoning for us was that they favored out of conference strength of record and said ours was bad.

Its a long way until March though, should be a fun ride.

Its a joke that he can sit there and say "oh well, good job winning @ the #1 team in the country, but you're still not good enough because you didn't play a good enough OOC schedule".

Mind you, this OOC schedule included a game at Kentucky when they were #8, but yeah, screw us for beating the #1 team in the country at their house rather than feasting on a bunch of teams rated between 75 and 100 back in December.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Exactly, we should've been playing teams like Washington, Iowa, and Ole Miss.... oh wait.

We really can't sugar coat our OOC schedule and it was entirely within our control to game the RPI better. It is a recurring trend every year so I'm not sure we will see much improvement.

For every Washington, Iowa & Ole Miss we have Detroit Mercy (RPI 287), Houston Baptist (340), Morehead St (293), Citadel (278), UMES (344).

The following VA/NC teams would have played us and greatly improved our RPI: Old Dominion (83), VCU (119), UNC-G (84), Davidson (115), Richmond (170).

I just don't see a big difference between playing an RPI 170 team and RPI 270 team. Disregarding the fact that I hate RPI and would much rather use Kenpom, after a certain point all of those teams are a certain kind of bad. I just don't think it should weigh that heavily in bracket seeding. Beating Richmond should not carry that much weight over beating Citadel because they are both beyond that point of competitive teams. Richmond is currently 9-15 with their best win being over Davidson. They lost to Wake and Jacksonville St. by 30. Yea they have potential and played BC close on the road but it still should not weigh as much as it does when you also play Kentucky on the road and a few decent Power 5 schools then finish your year playing 18+ ACC games.

I just don't see a big difference between playing an RPI 170 team and RPI 270 team...

You may not, but the selection committee does.

Beating Richmond should not carry that much weight over beating Citadel because they are both beyond that point of competitive teams.

But it does.

...but it still should not weigh as much as it does...

It shouldn't, but it does. We need to realize the mechanics of the system we're in, and work to maximize our efficiency within it. When we're further along in Buzz's career and are a perennial NCAA team, then we may not need to worry about that kind of stuff. But right now, it's bordering negligent to ignore the ramifications of who you schedule.

The Poster Formerly Known As The Spirit Of Bernard Basham

What's bullshit is that this is creating an environment where winning as a bubble team over the #1 team in the country ON THE ROAD is minimized because the team "didn't challenge itself enough" in a separate part of the schedule.

At a certain point, they're looking for ways to make losses and wins over mediocre at best teams worth more than wins over elite teams. That's where I have a big problem. Who gives a shit if your OOC had a bunch of wins over teams ranked around 200 on it rather than wins over teams ranked around 150 if you have 2 top 10 wins on your resume, including a win over the #1 team in the country on the road?

But no, this bullshit era in which we live has us being punished because the teams we beat in OOC aren't as good as people would like, and that's allowing them to overlook what we're accomplishing in ACC play. its one thing if we're using OOC SOS to negate quality losses, its a whole other ballgame if we're using OOC SOS to negate statement wins, and that's what Lunardi is doing.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

I agree with you. It's a shitty system. I'm just saying that refusing to believe how the system is working at this time is negligent.

The Poster Formerly Known As The Spirit Of Bernard Basham

Absolutely. Don't get me wrong, I get that this is what the system is doing. The system is horrible. The fact that we have these experts seriously saying a OOC in which we went 11-2 (where 1 of the 2 losses was @ #8 Kentucky) carries more weight than wins over #10 UNC and at #2 UVa with a winning record in arguably the top basketball conference in the country is just unfathomable.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

if only this was SEC football we would be the #1 seed right now

#Bapn ain't EZ

Wanna win put boobie in! Let boobie spin coach!

if only this was SEC ALABAMA football we would be the #1 seed right now

FTFY

Let's Go

HOKIES

Wow thanks for that. I obviously know that it does. That wasn't a post about what the committee actually looks at. It was a post questioning their metrics. Questioning our scheduling is also valid and deserves a discussion but you really didn't provide anything by just saying "oh you think it matters? well it doesn't".

I mean, I don't agree with him. But I understand its his job to try and accurately guess the field. He feels as though based on the release of the committee rankings, they won't seed us as high as he had recently. Its full blown BS, however.

I want a job where I just predict random crap and get paid. Like mock drafts and other hypothetical nonsense, it means nothing. Talk to me on Selection Sunday when we are a lock holding an ACC tournament trophy. (Now that's a prediction.)

'07 Mechanical Engineering

"Touchdown, Tech! I have never enjoyed saying that more"
-Bill Roth

Even better, you get to make wild ass predictions then change them entirely when the people actually making the decisions you're guessing at release their own thoughts. That's like a weatherman changing his prediction once it starts raining...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I mean, Lunardi's predictions are typically pretty accurate by Selection Sunday. He's not really in the business of hot takes, he's focused on actually predicting what the selection committee will do (rather than what he thinks they should do).

Twitter me

Yeah - but they aren't THAT accurate. There are a handful of teams that are on the bubble, not that hard to get 65+ teams right, especially when you get 32 automatic freebies.

Lunardi and Larry Sabato have it made when it comes to "predicting" and then touting their success. There are only a few question marks each year, yet each celebrate getting 95%+ right each year/election.

There are only a few question marks each year, yet each celebrate getting 95%+ right each year/election.

IIRC, it's not that he gets 95% of qualifying teams correct, it's that he routinely gets 95% of the seeding correct too. That's pretty remarkable.

Well, it looks like I recalled incorrectly.

Twitter me

No - not even close.

Try like 53.5%

Teams correctly seeded:

2013 - 34
2014 - 39
2015 - 42
2016 - 34
2017 - 33

Bracketmatrix.com shows that he is 40th out of people who post brackets online in the past 5 years.

BracketMatrix.com is a much better resource - We are currently the highest #10 seed there

One of the brackets has us at a 5 seed. Which is way off the board from where we should be. I feel like we are around an 8 or 9 seed.

I'd rather not see us as a 5 seed....
History is the reason.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

yes, true, and I would rather be an 11 seed than a 8 or 9, get a 4 seed and then a 5 (or 12) seed to go through to the sweet sixteen rather than having to go through a 1 or 2 to get there like the 7, 8, 9, and 10 seeds do.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

Step back and think: ... we are having this conversation in regards to the Hokies...
The times they are a changin'...

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

This is pretty much where I'm at. If 8 or 9 is going to be the Hokies' ceiling as far as seeding, I'd rather be an 11 or a 12. Get that Thursday upset, and then not have to play the #1 seed in the second game.

Leonard. Duh.

Not only that but the Hokies have moved from a 10 seed to an 11 seed after beating NC State and the #1 team in the country.

#FUENTEenFUEGO
Waho's suck
Uva swallows

Jerry Palm had us as an 8 seed I believe.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Right now, I just want VT in the tournament. I think they're there, but how about another ACC win?

Duke is coming up tomorrow.

Yes, Let's go 1-0.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

I'm waiting for us to be seeded so we play a #1 or 2 in our first tournament game. That should be typical.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

That would be a 15 or 16 seed or a play in to the same. We continue to take care of business we won't be there, ...if we falter, maybe.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

An at large will not be a 15 or 16 seed

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

I'm cool with that, as long as that 1 or 2 seed is UVA, and we beat the snot out of them.

Can you imagine? We intentionally ask to be seeded 16th in UVa's region, and the proceed to hand them the first 16 over 1 upset in tournament history.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

The more realistic schadenfreude I'm looking for is to see Michigan State in UVA's side of the bracket again this year. So many jimmies were rustled when the committee's top 16 on Sunday had them as the 3-seed in UVA's region. A UVA coworker of mine spent more time ranting about that than celebrating UVA as the AP #1 or the #1 overall seed.

And the first 16 seed to win a natty

People are acting like we got downgraded in any meaningful way because of a win. We weren't. He changed how he was weighting his predictions. Honestly, would anyone be surprised if we were a 11 seed now? His job is predicting, not giving his own opinion on basketball quality.

Just not 8 or 9. 7, 10, 11 and 12are good spots for making the sweet 16. Of course, VT already beat a #1 seed
🤔

For historical record of advancing based on seed, see: Odds to Advance

🦃 🦃 🦃

honestly, this is legit. His goal is to match the committee's picks. When he learns how the committee treats schools, it would be dumb for him not to change his picks. That said, it also means that his picks aren't worth crap this far ahead because it's not like he influences the committee.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Just shows how f'd the committee is going to be this year.

They're seriously pushing an agenda that says it doesn't matter if you have multiple wins over the Top 10 including a win at the home of the current #1 team the day before they were ranked #1. It doesn't matter if you win 20 games. If you didn't lose enough quality games, you don't deserve entry.

Yes, they're prioritizing quality losses over statement wins. That's f'd up.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Luckily for us (/s?), every game on the schedule from hear out, except for GT, will either be a statement win or a quality loss

I agree that statement wins should be weighed more. The NCAA tournament for most teams is about beating a team that is better than you. You get the opportunity to take out a top team. Why should a team who has beaten everybody they're supposed to beat from RPI 60-200 and lost to every top team get in over a team that has proven it can compete with those top teams?

This sums up my thoughts exactly. Prioritizing the potential to win big games more than the potential to lose bad ones is what creates awesome matchups and parity in the tourney.

"For those who have passed, for those to come, reach for excellence."

I'm failing to see this narrative. IMO the committee rewarded teams with a lot of good wins (Purdue) over teams that don't have as many (Ohio State and Michigan State), which makes complete sense. Am I missing something here?

Edit: Add Oklahoma to the list of teams with good wins that look OK but probably overseeded at this point. Didn't realize they were in the midst of that bad of a slump...

Moved up to a 10 seed after last night's loss.

Rip his freaking head off!

You know... I was joking last night when I said the quality loss would move us up after the statement win dropped us....

but of course that's what happened

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Overall SOS surely went up, but a L is still a L.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

RPI probably went up too FWIW - based on SOS and overall record, doesn't get into the specifics of which were wins and which were losses

I won't believe we are in until I see our name on the bracket, doesn't make any since... Go 2-0 in a week drop and then lose move up.

As I mentioned in the Week Summary thread, our OOC schedule teams went a combined 1-25 in their previous two games so if this is what the committee based it off of and Lunardi went with it, its not surprising that even with our own two wins our ranking might fall some.

Top off the OOC with our in conference teams going 11-13, so a combined 12-38, its not hard to imagine us dropping one seed overall.

Regardless, and thank goodness after last night, there is still a ton of basketball to be played. Hokies just need to get it back in gear.

So he moved us to a 10-seed late last week.

After last night's win over #15 (and ooooh Quadrant 1) Clemson?

Still a 10-seed. And, judging from other 10-seeds being on the Last 4 In, we're one loss to Louisville, Duke, or Miami from being out of the tournament altogether.

F'n ridiculous to see our numerous statement wins being dismissed because the likes of Washington, Iowa, and Ole Miss weren't deemed good enough for the committee's liking this year. According to this assclown, we could seriously get the ACC double bye and fall to the NIT.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

I agree with your general sentiment about where we are, where we (think) we should be, and where we could (or could not) end up...

But Lunardi isn't necessarily the "assclown" here, he is just trying to accurately project what he thinks the real "assclowns" will do.

Is it football season yet?

He has 16-10 Oklahoma who just lost by 30 last night to Kansas as a 6-seed

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

and haven't they lost like six or seven in a row now?

Comparing the resumes it actually makes sense. They have:

1. a higher RPI (32v45)
2. tougher strength of schedule (12v93)
3. tougher opponent SOS (12v18).
4. better record against top 25 RPI (3-3v5-2)
5. better record against top 50 RPI (4-6v6-6)
6. worst loss (St. Louis/131 RPIv Iowa State/109 RPI)

I think we both have pretty comparable inconsistent seasons, with OK having the slight edge. I'm not sure if it warrants a 6 seed, but they should be ranked higher than us.

"...I'm getting a little tired of hearing how good everybody else is..." -Coach Fu [This week: 1-0]

It's honestly ridiculous. And before people talk about how bad our OOC was, just know that while we are at 341 OOC SOS, plenty of other tournament teams are not far from us. Miami (288), FSU (331 and a 6 seed), Michigan (304), WVU (292 and a 4 seed), Creighton (295), and St Marys (285). While I think all of these teams deserve to be in the tournament, their OOC doesn't seem to be affecting them near as much as it affects us.

Did any of those teams lose to someone in their horrible OCC schedule because we have.

None of them appear to have bad OOC losses except for St Marys who lost to Washington State, but they all have losses to teams that are above 100 in the RPI, some of them with losses to teams above 150. I get St Louis is OOC, but they're 131 right now and that is our worst lost. Second worst? Louisville. On the road. I just don't get it. FSU lost one OOC game to OK State. That was also the only team they played that was better than 151 in the RPI. We played 4 teams better than 151 and went 3-1. I will probably make an excel sheet later out of rage showing more examples but that is insane. Remember, FSU currently sits as a 6 seed.

We will likely lose one of those three, but that would mean we win the other two -- that should guarantee us a berth. Personally, I think one more win + an ACC tournament win gets us into the dance.

FWIW...no change for the Hokies on the latest bracket that came out this morning. Moved up the S-curve a bit probably but still a 10-seed. More reason to prefer The Bracket Matrix over Lunardi.

to play a 7 seed Nevada...i'd take that in a heartbeat...though I don't know anything about Nevada basketball

Yes, no change. Interesting that our success has now given Syracuse a third win over top 50 RPI. We are keeping Syracuse on the better side of the bubble right now.

My how VT basketball has changed. A win over VT is now considered a high quality win and helping another team get into the tournament.

--
"It's time to go play Virginia Tech Football longer and harder than anybody else in America!!" -- Justin Fuente
"I put a brick in Sacksburg today." -- Cam Phillips

seems to me according to the couple of threads I read on BB rankings on TKP that we are either a quality win or a quality loss to tournament teams with the possibility of us not being a tournament team.

I think we win one of the last three games + an ACC tourney game win and we're in good shape. I couldn't care less about seeding. Actually, I'd prefer to be a 10 or 11 seed over an 8 or 9. The 10/11 keeps us on the 2 seed side of the bracket. Win your 1st round game as an 8/9, and you get rewarded with a game against a #1 seed. Its hard to imagine us getting all the way to a 7 seed, so give me a 10 or 11.

Then again we could just win out and make an incredible ACC Tourney run and get to a 7 seed or better. I suppose I'd be cool with that. :)

Also, beating Louisville would be huge. They're on a lot of "last 4 out" lists right now. Beating them would both improve our resume and hurt the resume of a team we're scrapping with for an invite. I'd hate to see two head to head losses against another bubble team, especially a "traditional power", b/c you know the committee will lick UL's butt hole!

First Buzz then Coach Fu - In Whit We Trust

This is the first time since I've been a fan where I actually feel like we can go toe to toe with anyone. I don't know how the rest of this season is going to play out, but I feel confident this team will get the invite once all the chips fall.