OT - Time of Possesion and Other Such Myths

Just saw a great article, "Trying to win time of possession is dumb and stupid", from CatScratchReader (SBNation Panthers Blog) by Jonathan DeLong about TOP and how it correlates to winning in the NFL. It also discusses other such metrics and their correlation to winning.

If you dig down into the comments you can find some other plots that are of interest that I will also post below. Read the article first and then come back to these.


But this is the chart from the comments I found most interesting. It compares win percentage in the NFL to yards allowed per carry.

From the chart maker, Jonathan DeLong:

No lie, the slope of this line is almost exactly 0. It's r^2 value is 0.00006 (1 is perfect). It's p-value is 0.94 (Less than 0.05 is usually considered good). It's essentially a random set of data.

A team with the second best run defense of the last three years won exactly 0 games. Two of the three teams with the worst run defenses of the last three years had winning records. The team with the best run defense of the last three years won 5 games. Run game success just doesn't matter.

I know the NFL and CFB are different animals, and I don't have data like this for CFB right now, but the professional sport, from an analytic sense, shouldn't care about the run game, offensively or defensively, if they want to attack the most important factors for winning a game. What do we think about this as it relates to CFB?

Forums: 
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"What kind of person would throw away a perfectly good dog?"

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"What kind of person would throw away a perfectly good dog?"

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

___

-What we do is, if we need that extra push, you know what we do? -Put it up to fully dipped? -Fully dipped. Exactly. It's dork magic.

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Outspoken team cake advocate. Hates terrapins. Resident Macho Man Gif Poster. Distant cousin to Dork Magic. Frequently misspells words.

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Jet Sweep

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Jet Sweep

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

___

-What we do is, if we need that extra push, you know what we do? -Put it up to fully dipped? -Fully dipped. Exactly. It's dork magic.

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"What kind of person would throw away a perfectly good dog?"

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Old sigline: I've been cutting back on the drinking.

New Sigline: lol it's football season.