Florence precipitation thread

Hey all so I just unplugged my computer/wifi and figured it would be better to post a new thread rather than load 600 comments each time

So I repeat myself please post cities and areas youd like to know precip amounts and details for and ill get to them this afternoon/evening via phone. Dont hesitate to tweet at me either.

Furthermore I'll be sure to continue the discussion on the storm here too as more model runs come through

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Rural Retreat, VA

I am a northerner, but spent 4 years I spent in Blacksburg, and I never had even heard of this little town. This is the first. Neat name. I suppose I always got off 81 before Wytheville when heading further south, thus missed any road signs.

Tell me, is it as rural with a retreat like feel, as it is named?

Probably aptly named. It has a stoplight... they had to annex the intersection to get it. Mostly a bedroom community/agricultural community.

There are far better names in Wythe County. Places like Crawfish, Monkey Run, Muskrat, Mudlick, Blacklick, Hogback, Mule Hell, Brown Town.

Rural retreat also has a McDonalds

I feed off of nightmares

stopped there many times on my way home to Bristol!

Hokie in West Africa...sadly, I can't jump up and down hard enough for it to be felt in Lane

This has been random facts with APrimusHokies. Sponsored by Wells Foster. If you need a incredible defense for your valuables Wells Foster has your back

I feed off of nightmares

Don't forget Fries and Ivanhoe!

Fun fact: Groseclose was named after my great great great grandfather.

My mom's side of the family is from fries as well as my Godson

I feed off of nightmares

Technically speaking, Fries is Grayson Co. /s

Ivanhoe has that good fishing (didn't hear that from me though)

Also fries borders Carroll county the closest fries is to wythe county is like 12 miles

I feed off of nightmares

Walleye!

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Never thought I'd see Fries brought up on this site. I didn't think anyone knew the struggle of explaining how to pronounce the name of my town to everyone I talk to on the phone.

"I'll put a quote here to distract you from my inane comment."-Me

My step mother's family originated out of that area. Been to some family reunion type deals up there, but honestly, I had no idea what county I was in. I just knew Wytheville was the closest civilization.

The home of the World Capital of Old Time Mountain Music would like a word

Galax is a lot closer than wytheville. Depending on where you were in Fries you could've been in Grayson, Carroll, or even Wythe. Right in town it's Grayson but if you head back towards Fort Chiswell you'll pass through the corner of Carroll and into Wythe before changing postal codes.

"I'll put a quote here to distract you from my inane comment."-Me

Fries is my second favorite place in SWVA

I feed off of nightmares

It's a great place for music, fishing, and meth.

"I'll put a quote here to distract you from my inane comment."-Me

To be fair, that's most of SWVA.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

We consume a lot of alcohol too. Just sayin.

Indeed.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

The man that invented Dr. Pepper worked in a pharmacy and developed his recipe in Rural Retreat.

I remember the old pharmacy building with the "Birthplace of Dr. Pepper" sign. There was never a consensus over the story though.

"I'll put a quote here to distract you from my inane comment."-Me

You don't need consensus. Just make a claim and get one person to agree and you're set (See: half of Bama's national championships)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I give my regards for Marion , VA. I hate SWVA

I don't know what a Hokie is but God is one of them (excluding JMU/ODU)- Lee Corso

Y

I feed off of nightmares

Most of my wife's family lives in Rural Retreat!

Last I heard they were looking at around 5", but I'd obviously defer to eshiben's opinion on that.

Goin down the list folks. Lots of replies

If it wraps around expect a ton of rain early next week, somewhere around the 8-10" amount. You guys will take the worst of it.

Expect a little outflow from the hurricane itself as it breaks down in NC/SC Saturday and sunday

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I had many a wrestling match in Rural Retreat during my high school years.

Gloucester please!

Same as rural retreat expect some outflow this weekend and wrap around this week probably not quite as extreme as rural retreat (6-8")

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

81 corridor from Blacksburg to Winchester. Generally speaking, is widespread flooding foreseeable?

And why is Stuarts Draft a hotspot of almost 20" of rain forecast in an area that tends to lean towards 6-10" on windy.com? Just curious about the science behind this forecast.

Thanks for all your effort on here during this storm and all the ones in the past.

When you start off with a Draft, all the other effects are intensified.

___

-What we do is, if we need that extra push, you know what we do? -Put it up to fully dipped? -Fully dipped. Exactly. It's dork magic.

That wrap around once more will mess up the Shenandoah valley and dropping 6-8 inches on the entire region

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

NOVA

It doesn't matter how much rain there is, the traffic will increase.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Tuesday wed, should be unorganized at that point and more like 3-4" for yall. Still significant amounts but not nearly as bad

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Thanks Homie.

Greenville, sc

Yikes....system is gonna break down on top of you guys dumping rain this weekend. Itll hook up you should be done by tuesday but I think you're looking at 12-15" by the end of the weekend and 16 by the time it's done. Buy some water and hunker down be ready for serious floods

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Sooo if I was planning to be out of town in Tennessee all weekend and drive back to Greenville on Sunday afternoon would that be a bad idea?

Using /s is for cowards.

Might want to tow the motorboat with you for the end of the drive.

Looks like the Triangle isn't going to get it as bad on the initial surge, will it come back through on the second time around?

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

Yeah but not to badly, you'll get grazed on wrap around I'd expect a significant amount of rain like 3-4" now that could easily increase but it looks not to shabby

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

will it come back through on the second time around

And if so, will Florence pick up a master's degree as she passes through Chapel Hill the second time?

"Tajh Boyd over the middle . . . and it's caught for an interception! Michael Cole, lying flat on his back, ARE YOU KIDDING???"

Got a flight from Huntsville, AL to D.C. on Friday afternoon. You have any idea if that'll substantially affect the status?

Absofuckinglutely

The storm will be right between you and your destination depending on the time. They might redirect you north to say Chicago and then southeast to dc

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

You're a man's man shibe

Bristol VA/TN update, please

A Hokie living in Tennessee.

I have 3 favorite teams. VT, Kentucky, and whoever the hell is playing Tennessee.

3ish inches, you'll get skirted by the storm

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Clayton, NC please

And thanks for your hard work this week!

You'll be grazed couple inches probably, this could increase exponentially if it changes track. Keep an eye on it

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

If I had a nickel for every time I had to say that...

@vtscottyb

Storm might not even touch Virginia

via GIPHY

Whit might've been onto something about waiting to announce till Wednesday. And before the responses flood in that ECU cancelled because they were concerned about the evacuation from the Carolina's, staying Blacksburg would've probably solved that issue. Ironically this report says it might make a turn southbound, hopefully it doesn't reach Florida, else their escape to FL might seem like a bad call unfortunately. Regardless I hope the team and all of the Carolina's are safe, no matter how much I want a game to still happen this weekend.

"...I'm getting a little tired of hearing how good everybody else is..." -Coach Fu [This week: 1-0]

Pls stop

What?

There are two threads about VT-ECU game being cancelled. Posting about it in this thread is just spam/irrelevant.

Oh lol true

The new weather path is not irrelevant, I simply copy/pasted my post from the other thread. Wasn't an intent to spam. Thanks for moderating though. /s

From Esh himself:

Furthermore I'll be sure to continue the discussion on the storm here too as more model runs come through

"...I'm getting a little tired of hearing how good everybody else is..." -Coach Fu [This week: 1-0]

McDonough GA

Keep calm, Gobble on

Same as above, a grazing for the entire Atlanta area. Couple inches as it passes over over the weekend

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Roanoke, VA, please!

4.5-5" as it raps back up and drops a pretty decent amount of rainfall in the Shenandoah region. Maybe some outflow from the big portion but I doubt it

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Wife is in labor at Naval Hospital Camp Lejeune. So, how about Camp Lejeune? How long will we be trapped here?

Also, house is in Hubert, NC. Expecting a significant loss.

Based on the Euro model you are looking at between 15-25 inches total, but more significantly: 12-20 inches by Friday at 10pm. Not to mention Cat3 winds.

Hospitals are generally safe places.. Praying for you, your wife, and the new little one that you are about to meet.

Thanks. Happy the hospital is well constructed on high ground. Although I can see the New River from my window. At least nice to be able to expect electricity for some of the storm. Great story for this kid one day.

TIL that North Carolina has two separate "New River"s

I think perhaps he meant Neuse River. Which I have learned from experience auto-correct does not like.

If he's at Camp Lejeune, he's definitely talking about the New River

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Oh that's a shame. No cool fact for me today then.

Edit for Alum07 post: We are back on the new fact train

Huh. Well, I guess I'm jumping on the new fact train, too.

Also, expect significant sleep loss. After you get home, I mean.

"Our job as coaches is to influence young people's lives for the better in terms of fundamental skills, work ethic, and doing the right thing. Every now and again, a player actually has that effect on the coaching staff." Justin Fuente on Sam Rogers

Got a three-week-old little Hokie myself. Can confirm with every #sauce, #marinade, and #dryrub in existence.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Yikes.....30+ inches of rain. Stay safe guys bad wind too

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Highly disappointed in the lack of this gif....

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

That would be because this is a hurricane and that gif is not adequate :D :D

That's for use on Friday, duh. That said, he is traveling to Wilmington today....

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

And while airborne

Let's Go

HOKIES

It WOULD save eshiben5 a lot of research and typing....

That's because he's at the wrong airport....

Having a conversation with you is like a Martian talking to a Fungo.

#JustinTime

Savannah, GA please

VT '17

Seconded

Thank you for this link! I was having problems finding a good site that gave expected amounts

Constant drizzle from the edge of the system with occasional heavy rainfall expect a few inches topping out around 3"

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Greenville NC and the Triangle

Lots of rain Sunday and Monday topping out to 8ish inches, heavy wind too through the entire ordeal

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Halifax, NC.

Have a flight from Raleigh to New York on Saturday 6am... Still showing on time. Debating if it would be 1) a good idea to drive to Raleigh Saturday Morning 2) to board a plan going to New York

Thanks you!

You're gonna see constant moderate rainfall in this region totalling out to 3" if you drive in be weary of your path dunno your starting point. Dunno if you'll still have your flight

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Eshiben5 doing the lords work here. Unlimited legs for you sir.

Columbia SC

The GFS track looks like its gonna dump...the Euro looks like it skirts the border. Thoughts?

GFS

we don't say that around these parts

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

Its tricky. The Euro model for the SC basically has it moving the whole way down the coast, going out into GA and circling back up into the midlands and upstate of SC and dumping a fuck ton of rain Sunday - Tuesday, but probably a lot less wind. GFS looks it like it would move out a lot quicker, but have a higher wind impact further inland.

Of course I could be reading this shit all wrong.

Brutal Sunday and Monday. I think you guys get hit pretty hard could top out over a foot (15-18")

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Time to go get some beer.

Lynchburg

Nevermind. Just got my answer. 2"-6" through Wed it looks like. Although, if you have something drastically different from that, please let me know.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

Emerald Isle, NC, thanks.

/swallows hard and hopes retirement house survives.

What part of the island? Good luck. We live off Queens Creek in Hubert acorss the street from water access. Really hoping those wetlands can do their job.

About 2 1/2 to 3 miles once you cross the bridge. Arthur Drive, specifically. We're a "3rd row" house, but it was built on a rise, so I'm not worried about flooding. It's the many, many broken windows I fear BECAUSE it's on a rise, and no one else's house is in the way.

I saw you elsewhere discussing your deal at Lejeune. Mazeltov on the in-bound little one. Be safe.

Thanks. The wife, hang boy, and I are enjoying the hospital's electricity. Glad to see Emerald Isle suffered no dune breaches and is mostly intact. Hopefully your house made it unscathed.

Meanwhile my house near Swansboro is getting blasted by rain. Like a good Infantryman, I sandbagged it. But, only divine intervention will prevent some significant flooding less than 150m from Queens Creek and with epic rain. Gain a baby, lose most possessions. One of these is more profound than the other. I'm not complaining.

Glad you guys are safe and have power. Anyone with the Carteret-Craven Electric Cooperative is probably not in as good a shape. They just opened the bridge to town today IF you have a re-entry pass. We never got one when we bought the house, but when I now live 1600 miles away, it's not something I'm gonna sweat.

Got no idea about our house, but I'm staying pretty Zen about it. Can't do fuck-all about it, so it's really a matter of dealing with the results as best we can. When the property management company can get there, they'll fill us in. Keeping good thoughts for your place.

Should start seeing the wind shortly. Heaviest rain should run from Thursday and Friday into the weekend should lighten up to a drizzle early next week. Total out to ~18" ballpark

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Let's talk about Charlotte. Seems like we're right on the edge of something substantial and not that much

Heavy rain in the wrap around expect 6-8" next week, drizzle and outflow prior to the wrap around

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Was reading an article earlier today that said that Florence could exceed the 11 Trillion gallons of water that fell in the Carolinas during the flooding of 2015 and exceed the 33 Trillion gallons that Hurricane Harvey dumped last year in its swath. Those are some really scary numbers.

As a comparison, its estimated there are 18 Trillion gallons of water in the entire Chesapeake Bay.

TIL that Hurricane Harvey dumped 1.8 Chesapeake Bays on Texas.

Still less than the 5 Chesapeake Bay Retrievers that defeated #1 UVA in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Bethesda, MD.

Little to nothing till like tuesday from the wrap around. Expect like 3" next week

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

We got 2.4" last night here in Mathews. Had 4.8 last weekend. I'm not sure Flo will give us much more than we've had already. Hoping the wind doesn't get up, but even that seems to be unlikely at this point. Starting to wonder if the mandatory evacuation order wasn't a bit premature.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

It takes time to evacuate in an orderly manner and it's best to err on the side of caution.

Yeah, I know that, but I still think the gun was jumped a bit here. I know it's a CYA kinda deal, though. Damned if you do and it don't, damned if you don't and it do, I get it. Thing is, here, the schools closed Tuesday for the duration. The only grocery store closed today at noon. Everybody else in the county is going to work, and trying to deal with their kids not being in school, and prepping for the storm as well while the weather is normal. We may see some storm stuff tomorrow night, but to have heeded the evacuation order when it was given Monday night would have been totally absurd. Now I know things looked more dire then, and things may get dire still, but technically, we are guilty of a Class 1 misdemeanor, punishable by up to a $2500 fine and up to a year in jail since we didn't follow the order.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

So the wrap around forecasts could easily increase. Be wary of those and just expect those numbers to fluctuate a little bit ill be in touch. I'm beginning my hurricane party now with some margs! Stay safe hokies

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Will Newport, NC still be intact or is it going to washed out to sea? I already left and I'm at Asheville now.

"Oi! What's a Horkie"
"I am ya Grot!"

"Horkies were made for two fings foighten' and winnen'" - Horkie Warboss

"That Gritty git doesn't exactly look like a Horkie, but by Gork and Mork it acts like one!"-Random Horkie Boy

I remember going through Newport many times, between Arapahoe and Morehead City/AB

VT '10, Born & Raised in the 804.
Rockin the Bakken.

Arapahoe, huh? CSG, perhaps?

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Yup. 8 summers (6 camper, 2 as a JC). I seem to remember you were on that staff too.

VT '10, Born & Raised in the 804.
Rockin the Bakken.

Do like Newport, want to rent a house in the town to get out of apartments to be away from people and space so I can get another desk to paint and store my miniatures and to put my collection of items I got when I went to Raleigh Supercon last year and this year.
Apparently some friends said that the roads to Havelock and New Bern are bad/blocked today so I had to stay at a hotel in Greensboro again, luckily brought my Mini SNES and added some games to keep me amused.

"Oi! What's a Horkie"
"I am ya Grot!"

"Horkies were made for two fings foighten' and winnen'" - Horkie Warboss

"That Gritty git doesn't exactly look like a Horkie, but by Gork and Mork it acts like one!"-Random Horkie Boy

My sister is driving out to Newport today to check on her house. Last we heard, 70 is open from New Bern to Morehead, but you may or may not have to detour around Kinston and/or Goldsboro. When you do make the trek home, I highly recommend taking plenty of gas with you, fuel is scarce out there and you may have to go on an adventure to get where you need to be.

Just got back, most of Havelock, Newport, and Morehead City are out of power (don't know anywhere else, just starting exploring the area to see damage, got a full tank at James City if low on gas before heading into Havelock).

"Oi! What's a Horkie"
"I am ya Grot!"

"Horkies were made for two fings foighten' and winnen'" - Horkie Warboss

"That Gritty git doesn't exactly look like a Horkie, but by Gork and Mork it acts like one!"-Random Horkie Boy

Newport is looking at over a foot of rain by Saturday. The drizzle will continue through the weekend and you'll probably end up around 16ish inches of rain

Glad you evacuated heavy winds will be present as well

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Since it was mandatory evacuation I had to go. Also live on the third floor of my apartment so got a desk that survived many moves between New York, Newport News, Cumberland, Blacksburg, and Newport, NC blocking one of my windows so I don't walk on glass just in case and moved most of my stuff I don't want wet/broken in closets and kitchen blocked by walls.

"Oi! What's a Horkie"
"I am ya Grot!"

"Horkies were made for two fings foighten' and winnen'" - Horkie Warboss

"That Gritty git doesn't exactly look like a Horkie, but by Gork and Mork it acts like one!"-Random Horkie Boy

Spring Lake/Fayetteville NC

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

Expect 7-9 inches (was really tempted to do 6-9 for the lolz) Friday will certainly be the worst and there will be some heavy winds as well drizzle will continue through to tuesday

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

It rained here today.

Martinsville, Va?

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

Drizzle up until you get hit with the wrap around monday night through tuesday morning when you'll get some really heavy rain. Expect to end up with about 4ish inches of rain

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Winston-Salem, NC

Expect some serious wind throughout the event but rain wont really become an issue until the wrap around on Monday night/tuesday

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Front Royal, VA

Wait, what?

Outflow drizzle until the wrap around tuesday morning, euros looking at 2" right now but that could easily climb to 4ish

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Richmond, VA?

Expect some really heavy rain Tuesday but again just outflow besides that. Could be as much as 3-4 inches on tuesday alone though

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

LOT 18?

All right. While we're still under a caution, I want you to go back out on that track and hit the pace car.

Hit the pace car?

Hit the pace car!

What for?

Because you've hit every other goddamned thing out there, I want you to be perfect!

You don't wanna know

I feed off of nightmares

I heard there were new rules about rain in Lot 18. Three violations and Florence can't get a parking pass for next season. She's gotta keep her party within the lines....and there will be no games of catch! Hey - can you keep the noise down too? Damn Florence!!!

JP

100% chance of crickets.

#godammit

Leonard. Duh.

Local news here in Richmond are saying 3-4 inches on the safe side could be worse depending on when it wraps around still gonna be windy the next few days apparently so that'll be fun it rained a fair amount last night so the grounds good and saturated

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Newport News, VA

Click here to destroy wall.

Expect pretty constant rainfall throughout the event, occasional bouts of thunderstorms from the outflow. I think were out of range of the wrap-around but well still end up with 2-3" just from the constant rain

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Eshiben, you are a Rockstar. I still owe you a beer after your offer to host my wife and I at a tailgate years ago (sorry we never made it over) and will have to add at least case on top for all of your work keeping everyone safe. A hearty thank you from Germany as you help me track that damage coming to my family in HR area.

in Fuller we trust

Eshiban...

Thanks for all your work in helping keep accurate information out there. Slightly different, more technical take on the Bburg issue... The NWS hydrology models are struggling to keep up with the rapidly changing precip locations and amounts. The 19 or so of us that actually live in Montgomery County on the New River are generally "good" (i.e. it's not into structures) up the "major flood" mark of 20 feet. Most of the models have the chance of exceeding 20 ft at around 20%, but the number of sims trending up over the past 24 hours are troubling. They've already dropped Claytor Lake about 5 feet, so there's about 975 million gallons of holding room there to help buffer the NC rains...

For any of you that are interested, here's the New River at Radford Data. The three simulation packages are near the bottom. My instincts are telling me that we'll be cutting it close in the 20-21 ft range, but it'd be nice to hear someone else's thoughts. We're preparing to evacuate "just in case"... And agree - next time you're in Blacksburg, it's a good excuse to hold a riverside tailgate and ensure your alcohol level is properly elevated.

Thanks again...

And no surprise there, it's Wally Lancaster with an airball that looked gorgeous on its way to nowhere...
2/15/89, VT vs. South Carolina...

Lee

Geeze that's a toughie, that wrap-around is gonna hit you guys pretty hard Monday and tuesday dropping like 6.5ish" of rain. Doing some back of the napkin calculations...

So claytor lake is ~ 4472 acres. (From wiki) each inch of rain ~28000 gallons of water per acre (over estimated just a tad...its like 27500 or something). So if you wind up getting 6.5" of rain

28000*6.5 = 182000 gallons of water. Albeit that's not including runoff from surrounding areas but I really think if they removed THAT much water you'll be alright. Be wary of occasional heavy gusts and falling trees too.

I also implore any hydrologist to correct my math and thought process up there I've never actually done this before. But to put 6" of rain into perspective chapel hill got roughly 5" of rain from matthew 2 years ago. A game I'm sure were all familiar with

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

A game I'm sure were all familiar with

I mean, yes, but I'm sure we'd all love to hear the story again.

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

A game I'm sure were all familiar with

I mean, yes, but I'm sure we'd all love to hear the story again.

Edit: damnit.

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

The latest maps from the NHC show it moving back north of where they thought yesterday more in line with coming back up to western half of VA for heavier rain then but still will be fun to watch the live cam to see it come in

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Yeah I'm pretty sold on this track now. The Shenandoah valley is still gonna get some significant rainfall out of this

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Oh Joy!! Just add it onto the wettest damn summer I have seen in over 20 years. SF Shenandoah's graph looks like ocean waves over the last few months.

That's really neat you can see the planetary waves in the rainfall data.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I was just checking Windy.com and while the Euro still says Raleigh is going to get skirted (about 2 inches) it looks like the NOAA is now saying we're getting 11"+

Which would you say is most likely?

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

I think this is a case of NOAA being cautious. It could easily turn into 10-12" NOAA doesnt want people to look at the chart as gospel and use it as an excuse to stick around

Theres still some uncertainty and me thinks NOAA is hedging their bets so they're not risking lives

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I hope so... I know a lot of people eased up on the prepping after yesterday's updates... Either way, it doesn't look like the winds are going to wreck us, which for me personally is a good thing, but that much rain would catch a lot of people off guard.

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Don't worry they're doing the opposite to us. As far as I can tell using windy those NOAA rain forecasts are based on GFS and are a little inflated. NOAA has Columbia getting 3-5" which is about what the GFS has...the euro says 12"+

Yeah I'm thoroughly frustrated with the weather pattern this summer. Every weekend I had to fish, it rained late that week prior. Really hope this storm doesn't totally wash out the Shenandoah but it's not looking good.

It's not the river itself I'm concerned about, it's washing all of the shit from the hog farms and pesticides into the river that can cause major damage to the fish/wildlife population.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Storm surge (Lafayette river) in Norfolk, VA.

Charleston, SC? Seems to be getting worse forecasts every time this storm path updates.

You and the NHC said we would get 2-4 inches in the Hampton area and we got nothing. I've definitely learned from this that meteorology is far from a perfect science. Glad we got nothing and that I got three days out of work for it.

I mean it's a tough bet, I'm in Chesapeake atm and weve easily gotten 2+ inches of rain. It's all about where the scattered thunderstorms via the outflow hit. I mean shit we had a tornado warning this morning. I agree it wasnt bad at all but it's better to be safe than sorry in these situations

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

It was weird, it kept saying 100% all day yesterday and nothing. Never seen something like that. Thank you for all of your updates though.

Same situation here in Mathews. No measurable precipitation last two days, breezes but no real wind. Place was totally shuttered up, with the POs, most restaurants, the grocery store closed for three days. Yes, grateful for not being hit like the Carolinas, for sure, but other than an exercise in preparation, nada here. A lot of folks 'round here are wondering if the evacuation zones need to be revisited, as well, and Northam is going to get some criticism, I'm sure. Mandatory evacuations, once declared, have consequences that can operate without nuance or, in some cases, common sense. Insurance requirements, legal issues etc. kick in and must be followed. All in all, an interesting situation that will be parsed in the coming weeks.
All that said, if things had remained on the track they were on early week, we'd have been the ones getting clobbered, so I'm saving all my feelings for the folks down south.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Just getting the first of the rain in Wythe county.

Had a scary time for a bit. My great uncle lives in New Bern, NC. For a long while no one could get in touch with him, but we finally just got the word that he's fine.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

Glad to hear it. New Bern got hammered.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Thanks. It certainly did.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

Just heard from my friend who'd rented a house at Surf City starting next Sat. The rental company said that they weren't even going to be letting workmen onto the island until the 19th. Obviously, things are wrecked down there.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Stay safe in SWVA today lots of flooding going on. Remember Turn around don't drown, NEVER drive through high water.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Bacon strips &
bacon strips &
bacon strips &
bacon strips

VT '10, Born & Raised in the 804.
Rockin the Bakken.

Anyone seen any projections on power restoration in the Morehead City area?

I've been told anywhere from two weeks to one month for Harkers Island, just to the north. Hanging with my friends from Morehead in a day or two (they left and came to RVA today) and I'm sure they will have much more info for me.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

thanks!

My sister has power restored in Morehead City

VT Campus and surrounding areas seem to be okay, but looks like more rain in the forecast so that could change.

"Fishing relaxes me. It's like yoga, except I still get to kill something." -Ron Swanson

I went to my first Virginia Tech bowl game while I was in the womb.

First time I've looked at a radar in the last 24 hours (I know shame on me) interesting that it got pushed so far east

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Was totally expecting people to be stuck in Oak Lane because of the Duck Pond, but it was totally fine.

"Fishing relaxes me. It's like yoga, except I still get to kill something." -Ron Swanson

I went to my first Virginia Tech bowl game while I was in the womb.

I know this isn't really a precipitation question but I guess it is indirectly related:

How high is the Dan River going to get? I'm supposed to drive from Martinsville to Halifax for a meeting Wednesday. I'm reading that the Dan could get up to 33 feet. I don't know what that means but I know I'll be skirting the river a lot on the drive.

Checked USGS about 8:30 this morning at the New River levels, Claytor was taking in 30000+ but only releasing 6000 out of Radford. Just checked again, and now Radford dam is releasing 21000+ so the water is on its way downstream. I'm sure Dedmon center lots will be submerged not that long from now.

Upstream of Claytor the water is higher than I've ever seen it, via a facebook post. Foster Falls boat ramp is completely under water and it is still rising.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

I just looked at the present and the historical data for stream flow above and below the lake. Seriously high, but not nearly historical, regardless of the heavy flow. Some of the numbers in the past were incredible. Gonna be unfishable for a good while, though. Glad the worst is over for them, rain wise. Here at the Bay, my wife has had to water her plants the last several days, but we ain't complainin'.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Lots of tornadoes touching down in the Richmond area right now. Stay safe!

Chesterfield Fire is reporting serious damage to buildings and even flipped cars. Heads up folks.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

It is fairly nuts all around the Richmond area right now.

All right. While we're still under a caution, I want you to go back out on that track and hit the pace car.

Hit the pace car?

Hit the pace car!

What for?

Because you've hit every other goddamned thing out there, I want you to be perfect!

Hey guys, I know this thread is old, but I live in Wilmington and this is the 1st time I've been able to get on the site in a week. I'd like to personally thank eshiben5 for all of the information before the storm. It's because of your predictions that we ultimately decided to get out of town and head for Greensboro (which was miraculously missed by the storm). We had 2 trees fall on our property. One of them clipped the corner of our house. Thanks, man!

via GIPHY

Go Hokies

#gotchufam

Posts like this make it worth while. Also shout out to the NWS they crushed this forecast

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

This is another reason I love this forum. Glad you are safe, sorry your property was damaged, and hope things return to normalcy sooner rather than later.

At the end of the day, we were extremely fortunate. A few more feet the other way and the tree could have come down right through our kitchen. We are able to live in our house, and we are thankful for that. Other parts of Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick Counties were not so fortunate. Levees have broken, bridges have washed out, I-40 will not be open until next week at the earliest, and a lot of people are still without power. We (as a region) will pull through this, but the mess may take a little while to clean up!

Go Hokies

I lived in Jacksonville for Fran, Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd. I remember the clean up taking a couple months for each. Of course, I don't think any of those dumped as much water on the area as Flo did.

Correct! I was in the Greensboro area when Floyd hit and can remember attempting to get to my grandmother's in Morehead City and it being impossible. I've asked some of the ol' timers and they have all agreed that Flo was worse than Floyd. There's only 1 way in & out.

If anyone else from the ILM area is on the boards and needs help, please reach out to me. I'm in the Scott's Hill area, and will try to get to wherever you are to help out.

Go Hokies

Kirk? Are you serious?!

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank