NBA officially proposes lowering the draft age to 18

Link here.

Its about time if you ask me. The super elite high school athletes should be able to immediately "join the work force" if they choose so and enter the draft. Go get paid kids.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Agreed. I have been in favor of rules similar to baseball. Go pro out of Hs if you want to and can, but you should have to commit to multiple years if you go to college. Just me

Shit, why 18? Just make the threshold 16 /s

Waho's suck
Uva swallows

Imagine being 16 and having to guard Lebron lol.

Imagine being any age any having to guard Lebron.

Imagine being LeBron having to guard LeBron.

Agreed. If a kid is good enough that a pro team takes a shot on them, then they deserve to get paid.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

The NBAPA would have to agree. Guess who isn't a member of the NBAPA - any high schooler. Current players have a financial interest to keep this system as is, so I guess we will see how this plays out

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I dont understand why current plays have a financial interest in this. The only people it hurts are the people being drafted in the year they make this rule because the draft wi have more people. But no one who will be in the draft is in the nbapa so I really dont understand.

A smaller pool of qualified job applicants is always better for current job holders.

After the first year, does it really have much of an impact? If you're good enough to come out at 18, you're almost certainly going to be good enough to come out at 19.

It could. NBA scouts may be good at their jobs, but they're not infallible. I would expect that every year you'd see one or two "can't-miss" HS prospects that can't handle the transition to the League and flame out pretty quickly. Those guys would be occupying roster spots that veteran players could otherwise hold for that year or two.

“You got one guy going boom, one guy going whack, and one guy not getting in the endzone.”
― John Madden (describing VT's offense?)

Because NBA rosters have limits - if it was allowed, Zion and about 15 other 18 year olds would be sitting on those rosters today, displacing current players.

If you're the 12th guy on the Cavs bench today, you're probably preparing to head to Europe for next season, to be replaced by a 19 yr old.

This year I would say your analogy applies to the 7th guy sitting on Cleveland's bench

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

roster limits are 15 players, so if there are 15 18 year olds that would be drafted in 2019 and every single one would make the roster then that is 1/30th of the players being protected. In addition, this doesnt account for the fact 2nd round picks are guaranteed. This also doesnt take in to account the draftees they would be pushing out. In addition it is a one year correction. Because next year you dont have all the one and dones wmyou would have. So yes some role players could lose their spot, some people wouldn't get drafted.

Prior to the rule change, 42 players were drafted out of high school starting in 1962. From Garnett until 2005 it was 39, so about 4 a year. Arguably the worst year was 8 and we might see that more often, but less than the 15 you stated.

In addition, if it was a high school or 3 years of college that would change things a lot as it would create a lack of player next year.

High schoolers straight to the NBA has been done before and it wasn't a huge issue. There have only been like 45 total players in NBA to be drafted straight out of high school.

Anything that inherently restricts the pool of players competing for NBA salary is a benefit to the players currently competing for that salary. Even a one year barrier to entry for a high school player could negatively change the way a team/the league views him as a prospect moving forward. Sunk cost of guaranteed money to a player who is a huge bust hurts the other players in the league because that salary isn't available. The money will be spent either way, but the fewer HS draft busts, the more that money can be spread among deserving players.

It's kinda like how the MLBPA never bargains against service time manipulation or any other issues that affect minor leaguers -- the minor league players aren't represented by the MLBPA and therefore the union has no incentive to bargain for the rights of its members competition.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

It's criminal how little most minor league players make. Single A ball making 6K for an entire season.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Current players yes but the NBAPA has to look out for future members as well, getting in the NBA a year earlier means you get to your second contract, where you start to make real money, a year sooner which is in their best interest.

VT '17

The draft eligible age should be 16. Why not? These AAU kids are entitled to NBA money apparently and so long as NBA owners draft and pay on "potential". LeBron James would have been a top 5 pick at age 16. That's who the age rule is for anyway- to save NBA owners from themselves for a year. Instead of drafting scrubs and morally bankrupt dudes like Eddie Curry and Darius Miles right out of high school, they get to watch them for a year at Kentucky instead before reaching on someone that can't play. It's ridiculous. If an NBA owner wants to pay a 16 year old and hope he is good in 10 years, so be it. Markell Fultz- who can't shoot or hit a free throw could have started his bust clock at 18 instead of 19 and save everyone the suspense.

Markelle Fultz averaged 23.2 PPG on 47.1% shooting, including 41.3% shooting from three. He was effective and efficient!

Either he's got something psychological (aka "the yips") with his shot, or the medical diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome actually is affecting him. The only way he was a terrible pick was if a coaching staff/front office saw him shoot ahead of the draft, like Ainge might have.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

It's arguably the worst pick since Anthony Bennett. It was a terrible pick. They took him NUMBER ONE overall in the draft. That position should be an impact player, all star, franchise player. They traded him less than 2 years after they drafted him and he has sucked when on the court. Terrible pick. they could have drafted Donovan Mitchell- you can shoot free throws. If Fultz is a good pick, so was Chris Washburn.

You're viewing the Fultz pick two years removed from having made it, not looking at the pick at the time it was made. I didn't say that Fultz is a good basketball player, or a high-quality NBA player. Or even average. I said that taking Fultz was and is defensible based on his year of play at Washington.

Anyone can be an armchair GM with the benefit of hindsight. DID YOU KNOW TOM BRADY WAS A SIXTH ROUND PICK?

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Yeah, no shit, that's why he is a bust. The pick however was not a bad pick. He was a consensus top player.

Child labor laws?

The local morning sports radio show was talking about this on the way to work this morning. They were all "we have to find some way to keep top talent coming to college, otherwise people will stop watching, and it will eventually flop"...

Am I misremembering? NCAA basketball was just fine when the likes of Lebron, Kobe, Garnett, etc. were skipping college, wasn't it?

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Am I misremembering? NCAA basketball was just fine when the likes of Lebron, Kobe, Garnett, etc. were skipping college, wasn't it?

My recollection (which could be wrong) was that fanbases of both NBA and College were disappointed with the quality of their respective league. NBA fans complained of unpolished players and sloppy play, while college fans felt like the game was less exciting given that the top 5-15 best would-be-recruits were forgoing college basketball to play pro.

Still not sure why the baseball model can't work in football and basketball, but I digress...

Twitter me

There will be never a perfect answer for this or there will be nothing that will make both sides happy.

IMO I think it should be at least 2 years in college basketball, which would make both the product in college basketball and NBA better. Could you imagine the teams Duke/Kentucky/Michigan St/etc. would have if they had their usual 1-and-done players all come back for another year to join the new class of 5*'s? Their teams would be even more deeper and talented.

But when it is all said and done, I will never get in anybody's pockets. We live in a free market and if you are able to get drafted in the NBA and get your money, then you should. Sure there is a chance of more flame outs that go from HS to NBA, but it should be their decision to do so.

Bleeding burnt orange and chicago maroon

Personally I think this would be bad for NCAA MBB. It would remove the parity that makes college basketball so great. You'd just have Kentucky and Duke lightyears better than everyone else (pretty much how CFB currently is with Bama and Clemson). I'd like to preserve parity in college sports as much as possible.

"Go Hokies!" - Thomas Jefferson
@HaydenDubya

Agreed. If a player doesn't want to attend college and has no plans to get a degree, then why go? Go get paid. NCAAM should not be a farm league to evaluate NBA talent imo.

Yea you are absolutely right about the good teams like you mentioned. I think the smaller/less known teams will still be on the same talent level, but the rich get richer.

Bleeding burnt orange and chicago maroon

I don't think the NBAPA has some selfish agenda to keep young players out of the league to the benefit of veterans or the 12th man. I think the NBAPA has more concern of the cash that is available to spread around and when a team sinks $100 million into a high school phenom who busts, it leaves less to be spread around to the average player. I would like to see them reduce the draft age to 18 but also limit the rookie contracts the way the NFL has done. Establish a 2 yr/$10M range with a team option 3rd year at ~$7M max. This will lower the risk from the NBA side and lower the incentive from the player side, but when the Zion types come along they can still get paid and prove they belong. If the player lights the league on fire both sides can always negotiate a new contract after the two years.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

Smaller market teams will never go for shorter rookie deals that would accelerate player movement. The only real hope for a team like Milwaukee to compete is to draft Giannis and keep him as long as possible, or to package assets for a star and hope you can convince him to stay. That means delaying free agency as long as possible, and hoping money talks (via Bird rights) when he does finally reach free agency. Look at the situation New Orleans finds itself in with Anthony Davis. The nature of the NBA is such that players tend to flow to big market teams and competitive teams.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

2 year rookie deal with team option 3rd year then normal free agency rules apply.

to sweeten it for the smaller market teams, the team would have the option after 2 years to offer a full-value extension. Some players may just wait and play the 3rd year of the rookie deal to get true free agency, but I think a lot would take the $100 million a year earlier.

Rookie deals aren't fully guaranteed now.

All first-round rookie contracts are guaranteed for two seasons, with an additional team option in Years 3 and 4 of the deal.

You're just not going to get owners to give up that second option in the deal and accelerate the FA clock. Players off of rookie deals now don't get unrestricted FA, but are restricted with their teams having the option to match, unless the player takes a one year qualifying offer rather than sign an offer sheet in RFA.

While that sounds preposterous, Kristaps Porzingis has said that's what he will do, and Greg Monroe previously did it. Usually players sign an extension (Giannis/AD), test RFA (Eric Gordon, Zach Lavine, OPJ, etc), or a team decides to trade them instead (Porzingis) rather than allowing them to walk in RFA (The Bucks let jabari parker walk in RFA). But taking the QO and moving to UFA after a year is probably going to be more common. Team owners simply don't want to lose the players they've drafted, and players don't want to play in bad situations in small markets.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

With the G League expanding its reach the way that it is, this might happen to work.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Nobody offered me a job as an engineer, or accountant, etc... out of high school even though I had an outstanding gpa and sat score. Fact is, many other employers require kids to go to college even if they are smart enough to work right away as a way to weed out the pool. I'm all for allowing athletes to major in athletics if that's what they see as their future in, but I'm not willing to say that a multi billion dollar business shouldn't be allowed to tell a kid that they require them to get a degree (metaphorically in this case) before applying for the top job in the world in that particular field.

Nobody offered me a job as an engineer, or accountant, etc... out of high school even though I had an outstanding gpa and sat score.

But people who are smart enough/mature enough to join the workforce directly out of high school are allowed to. The reality is that most kids aren't smart enough or haven't developed the work ethic to do so. Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, Paul Allen, Henry Ford, and others have been super successful without going to college. Very much like the Lebron's and the Zion's, these people were were in the top 0.001% of the world at what they do, thus there was no need to go to college.

Twitter me

I agree. I'm just saying if the NBA wants to require some sort of college basketball experience, whatever that may be, they are not unique in doing so. Most businesses do the same thing. All the people you mentioned at least attended college before dropping out to start their own business. No one hired them. The nba is hiring these players and should be allowed to require any type training they desire. If that's 4 years of college so be it, if it's 16 years old so be it too. Just don't tell me they are keeping someone from making a living because they have some type of requirement for employment.