Buzzketball Central: #15 Virginia Tech Hokies (22-6, 11-5) at #14 Florida State Seminoles (23-6, 11-5) 7PM ESPNU

Game day!The No. 4 seed in the @NewYorkLife @accmbbTournament is on the line tonight ✊🏀 vs. No. 14 Florida State📍 Tallahassee, Fla.🕚 7 p.m. ET📈 https://t.co/x0LoDRFkHL📻 https://t.co/Y5WNSie1Vm📺 ESPNU💻 https://t.co/nu8mzaQC3J#getBETTER | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/TbPJxBcvDX— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) March 5, 2019

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: Mar. 05, 2019 / 7PM
Opponent: Florida State University
Site: Tallahassee, FL (Tucker Center)
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network
Talent: Jon Laaser and Mike Burnop
TV: ESPNU
Talent: Rich Hollenberg & Debbie Antonelli
Live Stats: HokieSports.com
Game Notes: Virginia Tech
Sirius: 81 XM: 81 Internet: 81

Wouldn't this have been great to see this season.....Nolley in uniform....

Happy birthday S/O to Landers Nolley (@thatbooych3z)!#getBETTER | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/RTSXA3CnWm— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) March 5, 2019

Bring the Ax, cause those are some Tall Trees up ahead

Buzzketball's chance at a double bye essentially comes down to this game. Win and you're in. That's going to be a TALL task with the Seminoles looming on the road. The Hokies have great momentum after upsetting #3 Duke on February 26th. Florida State has the athleticism and size that have proven extremely difficult for the Hokies to overcome this season. The Hokies must limit mistakes and force the Seminoles into costly errors of their own, especially a high number of fouls in the paint.

Florida State comes riding high, having moved up to 14th in the latest polls after wins over Notre Dame and NC State. This will be the fifty sixth meeting between the Hokies and Seminoles. Florida State leads the all-time series 33-22, starting all the way back in 1968. The Hokies last victory against the Seminoles came in 2016 at home.

The Seminoles are coached by Leonard Hamilton, who has coached FSU since 2002, and before that coached Miami starting in 1990. Hamilton has almost three decades of coaching against the Hokies in all their different forms over the years. Hamilton has enjoyed what many would consider a quiet run of success at Florida State considering the other ACC opponents. He has led FSU to 20 or more wins in eleven of seventeen seasons, including a conference tournament championship in 2012. He has taken the Seminoles to the NCAA tournament six times and the NIT seven times. His Achilles heel has usually been to end up on the backside of the middle of the ACC, finishing .500 or less in nine of fifteen seasons.

Defensively, the Seminoles employ a high pressure man to man defense primarily that varies in its starting point throughout the game. They regularly switch up to full court pressure in order to create turnovers and get easy transition baskets. One thing Hamilton and his staff do better than most is assigning defensive matchups. You may see some unusual pairings but they aim to best utilize their players strengths on the defensive end to cause the most problems for their opponents. Some assignments might be based on strengths to turn the ball over, others might be based on ability to rebound effectively and once in a while they even identify the best chance to score in transition with matchups.

Offensively, Florida State has historically run a motion offense that relied heavily on its bigs to score or distribute but with his current personnel, Hamilton has had to change to a more motion based system that relies on his perimeter players to score for the Seminoles. Guards represent five of the top seven scorers for the Seminoles. Regardless of the change, it appears to be working, with the Seminoles off to their third best start ever under Hamilton.

Seminoles Backcourt

Terrance Mann, (#14), 6'7, 215 Lbs Senior Guard is averaging 11.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 2.4 APG. Mann essentially has taken over the Seminoles leading man role, giving Hamilton a long arm defender with a big enough body to keep shooters off balanced but also able to crash in to provide weak side help. He is hitting 53% inside and has greatly improved from outside at 46% compared to 30% last season. He only attempts 2 three pointers per contest on average though. He also hits 78% of his free throws.

Trent Forrest, (#3), 6'4, 210 Lbs, Junior is scoring 9.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.8 APG and 2 SPG. He shoots 48% inside and 15% outside. He also hits 77% of his free throws.

MJ Walker, (#23), 6'5, 213 Lbs Sophomore Guard who initially was thought to be a one and done, is scoring 8 PPG, 2 RPG, and 1.7 APG this season. He has struggled to find his shot though, hitting 36% inside but 34% from outside. He attempts almost 4 threes per game. He also hits 77% of his free throws.

David Nichols, (#11), 6'1, 185 Lbs a graduate transfer from Albany, is scoring 6.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, and 1.4 SPG. He manages 45% inside and 34% outside on 3 attempts per game. His free throws are going in at a 69% clip.

PJ Savoy, (#5), 6'4, 210 Lbs Senior Guard is scoring 6.4 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.7 APG, and 1.4 SPG. He manages 59% inside and 31% outside on almost 5 attempts per game. His free throws are going in at a 81% clip.

Seminoles Frontcourt

Sophomore Mfiondu Kabengele (#25), 6'10, 250 lbs is leading the team in scoring at 13.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 1.3 BPG. He is shooting 54% inside, 40% outside and 77% from the line. His numbers are becoming very Blackshearish. This will probably be the biggest matchup to watch in this game.

Christ Koumadje (#21) 7'4, 268 Lbs Senior Center is also providing 6.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 1.6 BPG. He shoots 62% inside, does not take outside shots and hits only 57% of his free throws.

Phil Cofer, (#0), 6'8, 205 Lbs Senior Forward was granted an additional year of eligibility due to injuries earlier in his career. He is averaging 7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 1 APG. He is scoring 40% inside and 35% from outside so the Hokies need to realize he will step outside to shoot. He attempts almost 4 outside shots per contest. He hits 63% of his free throws.

What to expect from Florida State?

The Seminoles will have several options in this game. I believe they will come out playing their normal game, working inside out to get perimeter shots and getting good looks while creating transition basket opportunities. This is a long fast twitch opponent. A bigger version of the Hokies essentially especially when Cofer and Kabengele are on the floor together. Koumadje slows the post transition down somewhat but makes up with it by deterring or adjusting opponents shots up and down the lane on defense.

One area the Seminoles may focus is just wearing the Hokies out, since Florida State regularly plays 9 or 10 deep and could force the Hokies to adjust their game plan accordingly.

The biggest change has been their steady play on defense this season. That has probably been the most crucial change in the Seminoles and why they are where they are so far. This team averages 4.1 blocks per game so the Hokies have to find ways to avoid having their shot swatted while still scoring inside.

The biggest way to counteract this is turning Florida State over. The Seminoles average 14 turnovers per game, most of that with the starters, so if the Hokies can up that total a bit it will take scoring possessions away quickly. That becomes even more important because this is an opponent that just doesn't foul that much which the Hokies have used time and time again this year to distance themselves.

The Seminoles have however struggled with faster teams more than anything else. One thing that has not happened often this season is the Seminoles getting blown out, as they always manage to play close games, with only one loss by more than 10 points this season. That loss came at Pitt in a game where neither team managed to shoot better than 35% from the floor but Pitt managed 30% from the perimeter to the Seminoles 9%. Coach Hamilton attributed his teams performance to their previous loss to then #1 Duke at home when Cam Reddish hit a three pointer with 0.8 seconds remaining to win 80-78.

The Seminoles are averaging 76 PPG and only allowing opponents 68 PPG. That's an 8 point average margin of victory so far this season. The margin shrinks to 5 points in ACC play, so this is a team well versed in games going down to the last minute. The Hokies need to be prepared to execute at a high level all the way to the end.

The Hokies

Tech needs to be ready to keep a high paced tempo the entire game without letting up if they want to win this matchup. They have to be able to get a high number of transition baskets by forcing Florida State into turnovers.

Tech will have a tough time winning the lane, so it has to be able to hit its jumpers, especially critical is hitting its perimeter shots. Tech likely needs to shoot better than 45% from outside to be a factor in this game.

Tech has to still make an attempt at getting to the basket with Blackshear, NAW and Hill. If they forego working the ball inside than the Seminoles will be able to ignore the inside and focus solely on the perimeter. The Hokies dearly need clean looks today to stay in this game.

Last and probably most critical, the Hokies must avoid foul trouble. They can ill afford to have starters in foul trouble since the bench is short and doesn't provide much experience. They make up for it in energy

In Closing

Ideally the Hokies would just keep running but I think with how well Florida State uses their bench and how limited Tech's bench is, it will require them to strategically slow the game at points. Expect to see a fast paced game on both sides in the first half and then watch Tech aim to slow that down in the second half if they are able to develop a lead. The deeper into the shot clocks Tech can take Florida State, the better as they just aren't geared to play half court ball.

Tech has to use its speed and athleticism. They have to find open looks and they have to be able to hit those shots. Defensively they have to be able to limit the number of attempts Florida State gets either by forcing turnovers or bad shots. Do these things and it's a close game. Without them it could be a blowout.

I expect to see Buzz stretch the floor, especially on defense. Buzz will likely have to use some full court pressure in this game as well as some zone defense to counter the Seminoles offense. Force them to eat up a third of the shot clock before they cross the midline.

OKG. 😤#Hokies#getBETTER pic.twitter.com/AFKvV7WiI6— Virginia Tech Basketball 🦃 (@Hokie_Hoops) March 4, 2019

If there was going to be a David vs Goliath game for the Hokies in the ACC, this is much more it than Duke or any other conference foe. The Hokies have always struggled to win at Florida State, even under Buzz' tenure. That ends today. Hokies manage to win with a huge performance by Hill, 74-67.

Happy Friday 😁 pic.twitter.com/srqaLJJCNR— Virginia Tech Basketball 🦃 (@Hokie_Hoops) March 1, 2019