Coronavirus Discussion Thread X

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

That said, the explosion of comments in recent discussions has veered from useful to pointless and argumentative. Going forward, only Joe and the moderator team will post new "general discussion" threads on this topic. Others will be deleted. Moderators will lock threads as needed if discussion becomes destructive.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

As always, the Community Guidelines will be enforced by the moderators as best we can. At this point, repeat offenders who continue pointless bickering and whose posts continually incite arguments will be banned, at least temporarily. Doing so is in the interest of keeping TKP a strong and positive community.

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Comments

Thread IX was overall alright! 500 comments in, no less.

Debating constitutional rights is probably out-of-bounds, but it's understandable that government response will go hand-in-hand with that discussion -- but it's not really for TKP to parse what the government should do/can do or is legal to do.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Thanks for all your extra efforts moderating these threads. That goes for the other Mods too!

Indeed, slippery slope. Years ago, I recall a thread with fascinating insights into governmental theory, constitutional law, etc. that involved a few experts here in our community. They handled things right. Not saying anybody did anything wrong in the other thread, but with a much larger community now, it is easy for such discussions to derail quickly.

I will point out that I am not pro-mandatory tracking devices or apps. Merely pro masks. Contact tracing should be done through trained professionals hired to do such a job, as states are starting to do.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

The US already has SCOTUS precedent when it comes to things being made mandatory during a pandemic. Jacobson v. Massachusetts settles that government CAN mandate a vaccine.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Bringing precedent into a legal debate. Ha. /s

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

I know near the end of thread IX there seemed to be edging toward CG lines, and I don't want to cross them but have a point to make. The group that seems to be clamoring about constitutional rights seems to be the same group that had no issues with the Patriot Act or NSA surveillance/Eric Snowden scandal, as they were deemed necessary for American safety. I would like to understand why. I am just interested in the difference between the constitutional rights of 2001 vs 2020.

Edit to add, I'm not even specifically referencing the app tracking, but even in the context of making masks required seems to have a lot of push back at the moment.

If the mods wish it, I will remove

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I almost brought up the PATRIOT act as well. I declined for the can of worms that I didn't want to open. But, legally speaking, there are clear parallels in regards to surveying due to extreme situations. I think there will be a difference in agreement on what is an extreme situation, and that's why I personally held myself back.

It is a good point though.

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For what it's worth, and this is the last I'll say about this out of respect for the CG and the mods' efforts (thank you guys, seriously), I wasn't a fan of the patriot act nor am I a fan of the government mandating certain things now. I can't really elaborate without crossing a line, but suffice to say I think you all know where I stand on liberty/individual responsibility vs being told what to do by a power that has arbitrated the definition of "the common good" for me.

Sounds like something I said to my drill sergeant in basic training at Fort Campbell back in '70. He had another way of looking at things like that. He convinced me. I wonder what he would have thought of the "Army of One" campaign of several years ago. No I don't, I already know. He told me so loud I can still hear him.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

This. This...is priceless, my friend.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Your logic goes both ways. Does this mean if you are for mandating masks or tracking apps then you have no grounds to be against the Patriot Act?

I am not in favor of the patriot act either but it seems you are merely accusing one side of the same whataboutism you yourself might be guilty of if in fact you are against the Patriot Act.

It's sticky, and probably already heading down a bad path. My discussion point wasn't meant to be a generalization, but our state capitol has been filled with armed protesters the last week and a half. I don't recall such actions taking place during the Patriot Act, then again I was much younger and focused on different issues.

Your second statement isn't wrong at all. I tried not to pose the question as accusatory or holier than thou, but as an open discussion idea. I don't favor gov't over reach., however I don't feel mandating wearing a mask over reach in the same way. Force me to download an app to track my whereabouts and I think we are closer to apples to apples comparison and I would have the same reservations.

Good thoughts and I think we're on the same page. Agreed we shouldn't go further down this rabbit hole.

I just came here to say that Norway opened theatres last weekend and every show was filled to the allowed limited capacity.

But I'll take my chances on this little nugget and proclaim my never wavering disapproval of the Patriot Act from day one. Liberty comes with a price tag.

#teamprobablecausealldaylong

Leonard. Duh.

I think it's a stretch to assume that people "clamoring about constitutional rights" on a topic today had a broad approval of the Patriot Act or NSA surveillance that happened 19 years ago. Some of those commenting may not have even been born at that time. I think it would be safer if we kept the discussion to the topics at hand without reaching back two decades to nail down a perceived political agenda.

This is a good post. You might save Thread X yet.

Leonard. Duh.

You are not wrong. I was only in high school at the time, so memory was probably focused on other things. Probably safest to let this one die out

pls n thx

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Man, you guys must be gluttonous for punishment. Lock thread because it became political, create new thread, comments are level headed for awhile before devolving and locking again. Rinse and repeat.

Smh.

Comment Disclaimer: My comment are meant to be take as-is. If you cannot handle it, do not hit β€˜Reply All.’

The vast majority of comments have been interesting, useful, and helpful for those of us going nuts in partial isolation. It's a labor, but largely worth it.

I actually think very little of the last thread was political.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Most of these threads aren't political at all, but that one definitely had its moments. I figured at 500 comments with a conversation that was becoming increasingly inherently political (e.g. "what exactly should the role of government be and where are the boundaries drawn?") that it was time for a new thread before things got majorly derailed.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

My new favorite activity is whenever I see a new coronavirus thread is to go back to the previous thread and see what triggered the need for the new one.

I guess I'm not the only one then.

i was tempted to start thread XI just because of this comment just to have you scratchin your head for a bit

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Didn't you have to promise to use your powers only for good and not evil?

Because if so, that's lame. It would have been beautiful.

I think that thread went remarkably well. It lasted 500 comments and was pretty level headed throughout. I'm sure it's a pain to moderate, but Gobble did a great job steering it away from touchy subjects.

Fuck it. I'm going to watch NASCAR this weekend. I need something.

Go Austin Dillion... do Welcome, NC proud.

Leonard. Duh.

I get to watch this:

while attempting something resembling that tomorrow.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

But Rory didn't hit in the water. j/k (I have no idea how good of a golfer you are - I just know that I would have rinsed that shot.)

Oh, I wouldn't even try that shot!
First round out since 4 in Myrtle the first weekend of March. Jonesing. Hoping to be in the mid-80's for a 2 month layoff. Nowhere near what I used to be when I was low single digit. But enjoy the game.
Looking forward to the banter this weekend. And the potential for them looking for a wayward ball just like the rest of us have to do!

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

The funny thing is, for the last 5 or 6 years the amout of golf I have played has dropped to less than 10 (and probably less than 5 rounds) per year but I am striking the ball much better now than I did before my reduction in play. I think its because I have lost some of my bad habit muscle memory and that allows me to execute the swing I am visualizing. I went from hitting a slice (not quite a banana ball) to a slight draw.

My problem is I don't have the touch from 100 yards in to score better, so my scoring is about the same or a little worse.

I am not sure how much I am going to get out this year, but I hope I can top 10 rounds. Not sure its going to happen due to what's going on with the pandemic and work.

I'll argue until I am blue in the face with anyone... the driving range doesn't improve your short game. The only thing that improves your short game is rounds on an actual course. You can count on one hand the great short game players that don't play often. Short game is all feel. If you play 5 times a year, that is impossible to hone in.

I'll argue until I am blue in the face with anyone...

trust me we know LOL but i totally agree with you. I don't play "real golf", but disc golf is the same for me. I find i can have a 4 month layoff and still nail most of the drives but wind up with a bad round because i totally wonk up my approaches and putts.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Exactly unless you are hitting a thousand balls a day and know your swing well enough that you can pick a target and repeatedly get close. I am not that guy.

I gave it up years ago, but before doing so, I learned a valuable lesson about the game. Played in a 4some with a guy in his 80s. He hit it short, but he hit it straight. Every darned time. Got up, got down, nothing spectacular at all. All day long. Now I was no great shakes for sure, pretty much a duffer and I had no doubt the old guy was a decent golfer, but he beat me by 10 strokes and I had a good day for me.
We talked about golf and he said he'd played so much for so long that he never thought about his swing or anything like that. He said he believed being relaxed and swinging easy was why he stayed as good as he was. Also claimed that a bad stroke or a bad hole didn't make for a bad day, so he never cared. I couldn't get to that point, the main reason I gave it up. Not tempermentally suited for that kind of game.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

81. Didn't lose a ball. One nice birdie. No doubles. Little squirrelly, and only a handful of center of face contacts, but damn I enjoyed it.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Do you know if this can be streamed if you don't have cable? A few articles I read weren't exactly clear.

As sad as I am that turkey season ends tomorrow, I'm looking forward to golf, fishing, sleeping past 3:30 am, and catching up on my beer consumption.

Golf Channel app or golf channel online.
Prost!
(My fishing has been less than meh the past two days. Only one crappie and hardly another bite. At least the crappies was pretty and prob the biggest one I've caught.)

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Bundesliga is back this weekend too. 0930 and 1230 Saturday and Sunday on FS1. Then golf and NASCAR in the afternoon.

Dave Potnoy had a tweet the other day saying "When did 'flatten the curve' turn into 'find a cure'" - I think this is a reasonable question/discussion point, and I also think that, as new policies are becoming politicized, people across the political spectrum are forgetting the goal of shutdown.

Twitter me

I think the issue is if you shutdown and don't focus the time you gain on increasing PPE/testing/tracing in a substantial way, youre just postponing the curve instead of flattening.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Unless you find a cure/vaccine, you're just postponing the curve. The area under the curve is going to be largely the same.

Testing and tracing don't significantly change anything IMO. We're already having cases in LA of what they are calling COVID-20. People have symptoms but come up negative for the flu tests and existing COVID-19 tests. Viruses mutate so even if we get to be prolific with tests, there are going to be escapes.

I disagree. You can implement mitigation and prevention strategies to reduce the rate of infection. Plenty of other countries are being more successful in this than us (South Korea being everyone's favorite example). That is what the quarantine was intended to do- give the government and manufacturers an opportunity to catch up and prepare. Unfortunately that's being done very piecemeal.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

I agree that there has been some goalpost moving by some policy makers. And I agree it has become way more political than it should be. But, it's worth noting that the US curve never went downward (which was implicit in the curve flattening speak). In some locations, like NY, it has gone down. Others, like where I live in CA and the US generally, is at a plateau, which is demonstrably better than the exponential rate, but still short of the initial goal.

So, as with anyone that wants to yell things on twitter, nuance is lost, and broad generalizations are formed.

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Not to mention his other takes mean why would anyone even listen to his thoughts on this issue?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Some goalpost moving... yeah. March - Don't wear masks. April - Masks should maybe be mandatory.

Also, schools EVERYWHERE around the world are going back this fall, and Fauci just earlier this week indicated we might shouldn't. That really bothers me. Do Europe and Asia hate their kids?

ConspiracyLeonard is tempted to believe that the shutdown guys know that if schools go back, this thing is over...no way a lockdown will be enforced.

I try to keep ConspiracyLeonard out back in the barn most days, but he sometimes makes a break for the house.

Leonard. Duh.

It's worth noting two things:
(1) the mask thing is not a movement of goal posts, but an update on PPE suggestions based on the interpretation of science
(2) Fauci isn't a policy maker (but a policy influencer) and is bringing up a point of caution, specifically in regards to the long-term conditions that may arise from kids that get infected. We are already seeing Kawasaki disease conditions in children not respiratory related but correlated with exposure to coronavirus. There could be other conditions that pop-up as well. It is his duty as a infectious disease scientist to highlight and guard against these threats.

So, again. Science is an ever existential truth that we strive to better understand every day. As we learn more, we can make better inferences. Please don't conflate goalpost moving with a better understanding of science.

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When I see things like this I realize how scientifically illiterate we are as a country. Science is constantly evolving as we gain new information. People are basically equating the scientific method with moving the goalposts.

You are too right. Not enough people out there doing research and asking questions.

Leonard. Duh.

Why provide jest instead of consider the implication of what is written in the message? This doesn't even respond to the issue the OP is making.

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This isn't the scientific method.
This is people extrapolating to broad sweeping conclusions off of imperfect data with a very low confidence interval.

Not sure I am following what you're suggesting here. Because, these interpretations are from the top scientists in epidemiology based on new data. They are far from textbook conclusions, and yes, the data is imperfect, but the data is highly influential and part of the scientific methodology of understanding coronavirus phenomena.

Question: why is transmission occurring in people that aren't yet showing symptoms?

Hypothesis: transmission is occuring, perhaps due to conversation.

Test: Examine the medical histories and potential mechanics of potential transmission in these cases with asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals.

Results: presymptomatic individual got an entire choir sick. presymptomatic individual got a fellow business associate sick on travel (and never were in the same country when symptoms arose). presymptomatic individual got his whole table and more tables. downstream from airflow of an airvent. presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals have viral titer high enough to transmit to other people.

working conclusion: asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals can transmit the virus

Takeaway: cloth masks can help prevent the spread of coronavirus due to the amount of presymptomatic/asymptomatic transmission

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I honestly believe they knew from jump Street that masks were helpful but were afraid masks would go the way of toilet paper when the front line folks were already short of supply.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

who is they? and why would you believe that they knew that? a hunch?

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Why would it not help? It seems to be the most reasonable conclusion one could draw.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

Because masks are very inefficient at preventing the individual wearing the mask from getting sick. And when the virus first hit, we didn't know asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals were spreading the virus (this is not common in epidemiology). Before there was an understanding of asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread, it was assumed only symptomatic individuals were spreading the virus and thus there was very little benefit to wearing the mask.

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Reports were that pre-symptomatic individuals were spreading this well before it was widespread in the US. I even read that scientists thought it could be contagious up to 14 days before showing symptoms.

I am not trying to start a fight here. I just don't think it is coincidental that the mask advice changed right as we were catching up on our front line supplies. I also do not think it took months to deduce that this rapid spreading global pandemic was spreading by other means than boogers. I will drop the subject now.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

Reports were that pre-symptomatic individuals were spreading this well before it was widespread in the US. I even read that scientists thought it could be contagious up to 14 days before showing symptoms.

You would have to show me that. That would be news to me. The ability to shed virus 14 days before showing symptoms would be very different than our understanding now. Regarding presymptomatic spread, there is about a 48 to 72 hour contagious period spread of coronavirus before symptoms show up. Asymptomatic spread is much less well understood, due to the difficulty of knowing who is asymptomatic by our current methods.

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I should clarify that 14 days was from very early reports (worst case guess from what I remember) and has since been disproven. My point was that they knew, or at least feared then that the virus was being transmitted by pre-symptomatic individuals.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

My recollection is the same as yours, that medical sources were publicly contemplating this early. I think my medical based sources were saying this around first week of Feb but I'm not going to chase down which source, it maybe was either JAMA, Dr. Campbel, MedCram, Bret Weinstein, but might have Ben one of the others.
My guess between 27 Jan and 9 feb.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

this CDC article has collected all the publications and cited what they provided and the limitations. Early publications were from China and were mostly clinical tracing and had many limitations (too many confounding sources). Later ones that were done in other parts of the world and US and used actual virology to confirm the clinical tracing studies. So yes, there was data about asymptomatic or presymptomatic in Feb and March, but was confirmed in April. The updated guidelines for masks were made in April.

So yea, better understanding and better interpretation of what was truly going on , led to a change of whether the general public should wear masks.

but getting back to the original point, why would the scientific community have another motivation to change their understanding of whether to wear a cloth mask? and what would that motivation be? in other words, why would the scientific community purposefully say don't need to wear cloth masks if they truly were at a consensus that wearing a cloth mask would mitigate spread of the disease?

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I think I see where some of the confusion and uncertainty is coming in here in this sub-thread. In fact, I had to read up on the CDC site before the pieces clicked for me.

I could be wrong but here is my understanding:

The incubation period can be as long as 14 days. That's the time from exposure to showing symptoms. This is some of the earliest information that came out, and that's where the 14 day quarantine came from.

The infectious period, when someone could spread the virus without showing symptoms is only 2-3 days. This information was released later, but generally only reported as "people without symptoms can spread the virus".

What's not made clear in reporting or discourse is that the infectious period isn't the same as the incubation period. So those time periods get all mixed up and people think that as soon as they are exposed to the virus, they could be infectious.

As an example, if someone was exposed on May 1, they might not show symptoms until May 14-15. But they could be infectious starting around May 11-12.

Surgeon General said not to buy masks because they had not been shown to be effective against the virus. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/surgeon-general-against-masks/

Kind of trick with words since there had probably been no study to suggest either way whether masks were effective.

Then later admits that he said that because doctors and nurses need them more than general public. And also says that masks are more likely to make people let their guard down. Don't know if there's literature on that either.

A.ao, most people have no idea how to wear or fit a mask. They don't know how t9 take them off in a manner that won't contaminated themselves, aerobic activity and sports can create a hypoxia situation, false sense of security is a problem, if you have a different condition and can't expel bad microbes from your body because they are being breathed back in after being filtered by the mask, the virus is smaller than the holes in the mask, the list goes on and on.

The choice of a mask is a balancing act and it is not good to wear a mask all the time. That amount of time will change from person to person, situation by situation and circumstance to circum stance.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

FWIW, epidemiologists and healthcare professionals not being (fully) truthful for various reasons, some good, some not, does happen. My girlfriend in grad school worked at a large multinational organization (which shall remain nameless). Her thesis, internship there, and eventual full time employment there was on HIV in poor countries. Swaths of Southern Africa were being devastated and various methods of prevention were done. They would go out of their way to avoid discussing the countries where things were going well and procedures seemed to be most effective. The reason was, just as you say, the concern that people will think things are not bad and will let their guard down. They did not truly "lie". They just chose to focus discussion on the worst areas and forget to mention those areas where things were getting better. This is what some would call a lie of omission, but I am sure the HIV part was done with legitimate concern in mind.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

It's a matter of resources. When you have low resources for a great number of those that need them, you have to focus on the ones that are most in need. The ones that are doing well don't receive as much attention. That's not omission, that's managing the resources. With things like viruses and killers that can be spread, when it gets to a point that it's sorta contained, you have to focus on the area that is the worst. Would you worry about a small drip that drops a single droplet from your ceiling once a week or one that drips every 60 seconds. One bucket. That's basically what she's up against. Not that the small drip gets ignored, or forgotten, but the focus, and the bucket, needs to be on the bigger drip.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Oh but they were not talking about where they spend their resources. This was what they would communicate to governments and the press and in speeches. Sorry, was not as clear as I should have been in the writing.

The focus I was referring to was not on money, but on what you talk about. The fear is that if you get news articles saying countries A, B, and C are doing well as spread is slowing that people in A, B, C, D, E, and F will all think it is fine/let their guard down. Instead, you choose to ignore discussing A, B, and C and focus your talks, press briefings, published papers on D, E, and F, where things are bad hoping everyone in A through F behaves as if things are bad.

In this particular case, I have no doubt they were legitimately trying to save lives and families/communities from being decimated, but it was selective truth/lying by omission.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

You're right. The mask thing is not moving the goal posts, but it is contradictory.

Masks have nothing to do with new science. They work they way they always have, and coronaviruses are transmitted they way they always have.

The Kawasaki situation is extremely rare, and most children affected by it are responding very well to treatment. That is not even close to a reason to not go back to school in the fall.

Leonard. Duh.

Masks have nothing to do with new science. They work they way they always have, and coronaviruses are transmitted they way they always have.

We have new data that suggests coronavirus can spread presymptomatically via conversation (and NOT via coughing and sneezing). This prompted the new understanding of the need to wear masks. CDC link (AGAIN!).

The Kawasaki situation is extremely rare, and most children affected by it are responding very well to treatment. That is not even close to a reason to not go back to school in the fall.

Well, we are just now getting an understanding of how common and rare it is. This data is just now emerging. You may conclude with absolute certainty that it is not a big deal without all the data, but a cautious, well-reasoned scientist will not.

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You may conclude with absolute certainty that it is not a big deal without all the data, but a cautious, well-reasoned scientist will not.

science is so slow tbh

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

it is inherently the nature of the beast, the Kawasaki thing is showing up weeks after infection clears. Kids aren't even showing respiratory infection, but their family was sick, and then weeks later, this pops up. Perhaps more coronary issues will pop up too.

The virus binds to ACE II receptor to enter the cell, which is the receptor that controls blood pressure. ACE II inhibitors are the most common prescribed drug for individuals with high blood pressure. Coronary issues are the most common comorbidity in COVID19 cases. Most coronary conditions take years to decades to show symptoms (science is slow!).

so, tbh, we don't know what this virus is doing to the coronary system, but it could be f'ing it up in ways that were not anticipated. Or, it could not be. I think it is important to know that this is a possibility. Should it impact whether we do not open back schools? idk about that. But I do think a practical solution is to see the transmission and get a better control of that (i.e., contact tracing, testing, isolation, etc.). Having that in place would make everything else easier until a safe vaccine is established or the virus dies out.

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The virus binds to ACE II receptor to enter the cell, which is the receptor that controls blood pressure. ACE II inhibitors are the most common prescribed drug for individuals with high blood pressure. Coronary issues are the most common comorbidity in COVID19 cases.

So, what you're saying is that because I take Lisinopril (which I just found out is an ACE II inhibitor), I'm going to die?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I would definitely be super cautious of COVID. Many of the patients that end up on ventilators have been on an ACE II inhibitor. The drugs aren't believed to be a problem, but the underlying condition. Early studies indicate staying on the drugs is beneficial to COVID patients.
Link.

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To Leonard's point, there was some back and forth regarding masks. One of the reasons they didn't originally recommend them is because improper use can reduce caution, and increase spread due to people feeling protected. Along with the major shortfall as hospitals were becoming inundated with patients and not enough PPE for the front line workers.

However, to say it's goal post moving isn't correct. Advice was given based on data AND circumstances at that time. Data points and circumstances change, as do the recommendations.

As an aside, I upvote every one of your posts because even though I don't really agree you have an err of caution and provide good critique while not completely upsetting the eco system. I think I'd like to chill with ConspiracyLeonard over a few pints

And the mask that I see worn are done so poorly in terms of fit and technique that I still believe they are doing more harm than good.

For instance, if your mask has your glasses fog, the air is being driven out the top and bypassing the cloth, forcing drop.ets up into the air, in theory, giving them more time aloft.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

For instance, if your mask has your glasses fog, the air is being driven out the top and bypassing the cloth, forcing drop.ets up into the air, in theory, giving them more time aloft.

But that's still a relatively vertical trajectory, which would land pretty near you. The masks do a great job of corralling the outward parabolic trajectory of droplets which would land, and persist, much further away.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Bit they are not filtered, which people think they are. Also, god help you if you need to see for any reason.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

But, it's worth noting that the US curve never went downward (which was implicit in the curve flattening speak).

Is it even reasonable to talk about the curve for the entire country? Between the variance in policy across geographies and the fact that patients aren't being transferred out of state if a hospital 'fills up,' I'm not sure how much insight can be gained by looking at the entire country's curve.

In some locations, like NY, it has gone down. Others, like where I live in CA and the US generally, is at a plateau, which is demonstrably better than the exponential rate, but still short of the initial goal.

And then there's some places (like Georgia, Florida, South Carolina) where demand for hospital/ICU beds (at the state level) never surpassed their respective needs.

Twitter me

I agree that much of the nuance to be interpreted is to be on a regional and local level. But shouting off that the curve has been flattened (which it has not) and the goal post is now a cure before restarting the country does not have this regional nuance either.

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Oh totally agree. And I hope my comment doesn't come off as someone standing on the mountain top yelling at everyone to reopen - that couldn't be further from the truth. But I do think there is value in revisiting our goal, determining if we are still moving towards the goal in question, and deciding on a next action based on success/failure so far.

Twitter me

Definitely agree there. And I definitely agree that these actions should be more regional and specific. It will be more difficult though, to make assessments as inter-regional travel picks up.

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My interpretation was that to flatten the curve was to keep hospital demand below hospital/resource capacity. In that case, Virginia has never been not flat.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

I'm not sure I'm following your logic. So, you'll have to explain that to me.

The curve is the rate of new cases. The hospital capacity is a maximum number of hospital cases that can be handled. The curve needs to be flattened to prevent reaching the capacity (a major problem that we frankly never truly saturated, except to some degree in NYC, due to our flattening efforts). But, just because capacity was never met doesnt mean there wasn't increasing numbers of cases. A flattened curve is a decrease in rate of new cases that eventually reaches back down to zero transmission, as compared to a curve that continues to increase in transmission rate and eventually decreases due to herd immunity kicking in.

So, the curves have been flattened into a plateau, but not curved back downward.

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Every flattened curve I saw months ago showed an elongated rate. I do not agree that the original intent had anything to do with a negative curve rate, only flattening out the sharp peak.

The Governor has evenly publicly stated that we HAVE flattened the curve. I think this is part of the reason why people are saying the goalposts have moved.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

I never saw a plateau curve. Can you show where that was the expectation?

Yes, the curve is flattening, but the context of flattening the curve included a decline in rate of transmission.

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Even the do nothing curve had a declining rate of transmission. The difference was when.

From WebMD

You may have seen a graph on social media called "flattening the curve." That graph shows a tall, narrow curve and a short, wide curve. Through the graph is a line that shows how many sick people U.S. hospitals can treat. The tall curve goes above the line. That means too many people are sick at one time: We won't have enough hospital beds for all the people who will need treatment. The flatter curve shows what happens if the spread of the virus slows down. The same number of people may get sick, but the infections happen over a longer span of time, so hospitals can treat everyone.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

Yes, I acknowledge that in my comment above:

A flattened curve is a decrease in rate of new cases that eventually reaches back down to zero transmission, as compared to a curve that continues to increase in transmission rate and eventually decreases due to herd immunity kicking in.

The curves all predicted a decline in transmission. Flattening the curve still includes a decline, and we have not yet reached that decline in many areas.

This means we are still in the midst of flattening the curve. The curve is still going, yes it flattening, but again, part of the "curve" aspect was to reach decline in cases, and thus we haven't finished flattening the curve.

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It was called flattening the curve, not declining the curve. The point of flattening the curve was to prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed (i.e. demand for 200 ventilators in a city which only has 100).

Even the do-nothing curve had a decline. It was just after a huge peak where we couldn't treat people.

Agree. But just because the US won the battle of midway, doesn't mean the war was won and Japan was deafeated, but it does mark the point that the US was winning.

We are still in the midst of flattening the curve. Until it goes downward, we are still in the midst.

But, this concept isn't really a consequential point and is deflecting from the reality that we are far from out of the woods. The point is that we need to continue to keep up efforts to keep flattening the curve until we finally get the transmission levels moving in a negative direction.

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Many of us who do not work in biomedical field are frustrated because it seems like you are viewing the pandemic in a vacuum. There are countervailing risks to keeping up the efforts that get larger each week. The imbalance gets worse when we concede that not enough people will take the mitigation efforts seriously enough to make them effective (we don't even know how effective they would be if people did take them seriously). Having the perspective from the financial world, I am aware of how perilous the world can get in a depression like environment. The people over profits mantra is so disingenuous. People will suffer and die if there is a severe economic contraction. If global gdp contracts 5% it is estimated that 150 million people will fall into extreme poverty around the world. This isn't the poverty people experience here in America, it is riddled with disease and starvation.

We did such a poor job with the nursing homes at the start that going forward I this we will see the mortality rate fall. If you subtract out the nursing home deaths, is this a disease worth wrecking the global economy for?

is this a disease worth wrecking the global economy for?/em>

Well, we are less than three months in, so (rhetorically) how bad is it going to be? Are we 90% of the way? 50 percent? 5%? We know the case fatality rate (it's really bad) but until we know what the infection/case rate is, we're just guessing.

I have posted this before, but I don't think there is a scenario where the disease runs rampant, and simultaneously, the economy prospers. The U.S. economy took its biggest hit before the stay at home orders became widespread and there were less than a thousand deaths nation wide.

I agree that the economy was going to take a hit regardless of virus response.

But...a lot of the downward trend prior to the stay-at-home orders was due to businesses and other employers shutting down or enacting their own policies. For instance, the NBA shut down on March 11. The first stay-at-home order was issued by California on March 19.

The issue is the (perceived?) artificial suppression of the economy. Businesses and consumers are not free to exercise their full decision making capabilities.

But...a lot of the downward trend prior to the stay-at-home orders was due to businesses and other employers shutting down or enacting their own policies.

precisely. those same factors are in play regardless of what government does.

The U.S. economy took its biggest hit before the stay at home orders became widespread and there were less than a thousand deaths nation wide.

You are conflating the stock market with the economy. April and May have been much worse economically yet the market has rallied causing many people to think the economy is doing ok. I agree there is no scenario where the disease runs rampant and the economy prospers but this is a false dichotomy. A recession is unavoidable but there is a big difference between a recession that lasts 18 months and a depression that lasts 5 years.

To your question about how bad will it get, I have no idea. We may already be Wiley Coyote still running but unaware that he ran off a cliff or it might just be a severe but short recession. This is not what I think will happen but let me tell you what keeps me up at night.

A lot of the job losses don't come back. Consider the wedding industry. Virtually ever wedding in the country from mid March through the fall might be canceled. Photographers, florists, caterers, and venues wont makeup these losses in the future. Every business built around large groups of people gathering (sports, concerts, parades, festivals, theme parks, etc) will experience catastrophic losses. Many of the businesses built around these events/attractions are small businesses. Tent, chair, table, linen rentals, Airbnbs, vendors in sporting arenas, restaurants and retail, everything built around weddings mentioned above will experience massive permanent layoffs. Corporations will impose hiring freezes so the displaced workers and bankrupt small business owners will not be able to find work easily. Commercial real estate will get crushed as restaurants and retail failures eclipse 30-40%. Banks will suffer from rapidly rising defaults on both commercial and residential mortgages and low interest rates will squeeze margins on any new lending. Corporations will cut ad budgets which will impair big tech companies whose underlying business model is ad revenue and data harvesting. Many of the tech companies were losing money in a booming economy with no path to profitability. Facing a severe recession or depression, investors will once again favor companies that actually make money popping the 2nd tech bubble. You get the picture.

Again I don't think this will happen because I don't think people will adhere to government shut downs much longer.

I was actually referring to consumer spending and small business operations...see response above to the other comment. And it was a rhetorical question.

I'm very familiar with impacts to the wedding industry...our son got married on April 4...we could not attend. There were 8 people present (total)...outside on a hiking trail near her folks house. Her mom made a dessert and they had take out food delivered.

I don't think people will adhere to government shut downs much longer

I think the government orders have an economic effect but in my opinion, the weakest link (by far) in the chain to economic recovery is on the medical side...e.g., Government can relax fishing regulations and triple the limit but if there are no fish to be caught, no one will go. I can say with certainty that what Ron DeSantis says or decrees has no bearing on what a significant chunk of the Florida populace is doing. The people that didn't want to follow the guidelines didn't, and the people that want to minimize their chance of infection will continue to do so regardless of what is open.

I will agree with you mostly. Restaurants dining in closures pretty much was because of governmental decrees, but in general, it's obvious to me that in my skinny neck of the woods, people have been a little wary, but have ignored most of the mask, glove, distancing suggestions from the beginning. You see 15% wearing masks, almost every employee of every store not wearing masks, whether through ignorance or general contrariness, with a heavy dose of anti-government sentiment. I choose to mask, and nobody's shamed me yet, but I'm going to be getting the looks, not those without masks. I personally will not be dining in until I'm comfortable regardless of the decrees, and have only just now picked up a pizza for my first take out since. Forget about haircuts and postponeable doctor/dentist visits.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Agree that we are in the midst. We're going to be in the midst for months and potentially years to come.

You live in the CA just like me. Look at how we have gone from "teachers are amazing" to "teachers are going to take 10% paycuts and might have more kids in the fall" in 8 weeks. There are painful consequences of keeping everything closed to eradicate COVID-19. Apparently my wife is going to take a pay cut. My son has had a required surgery delayed since April.

We're not out of the woods and won't be for a long time. The question is how do we keep levels of infection low without destroying our economy or having people get crazy with civil disobedience. Musk and Mr Barstool are precursors to lots of festering unrest.

You do this by making a coherent argument and bringing it to the people with a realistic goalpost that doesn't keep moving.

The people will grant you what you need but you have to bring the case to them.

Right now it's more like slut shaming and calling out people as being sellfish for wanting a haircut as opposed to recognizing that these people are about to lose everything they own and they need to get food for their kids.

Meanwhile Mayors and politicians like the one in Los Angeles are saying the city will never fully open and no, you can't ever just sit on the beach.

Not helpful and not realistic.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This brings up a good point that I struggle with: Are we trying to eliminate the virus entirely, keep the amount of sick people to as low a level as possible, or simply keep the amount of sick people to a level that we can manage? Each of those I would guess would be approached in vastly separate ways. I want this thing to be over as quickly as possible as does everyone.

This brings up a good point that I struggle with: Are we trying to eliminate the virus entirely, keep the amount of sick people to as low a level as possible, or simply keep the amount of sick people to a level that we can manage?

I think, at a higher level, are we trying to stop people from getting sick, or stop people from dying, or something else?

But I agree - my main complaint about how this was handled was that there was no strategy behind it; the goals and KPI's were unclear, and as a result, everyone's arguing over it.

Twitter me

There was no strategy behind it because we had no idea how bad it was going to be. We didn't test anyone initially. We couldn't be certain that the whole country wasn't going to turn into NYC overnight. So we panicked and closed everything. Hindsight we could have kept many places open. And had rolling closures as hot spots emerges. The lack of testing really spin this thing out of control in all directions

Are we trying to eliminate the virus entirely, keep the amount of sick people to as low a level as possible, or simply keep the amount of sick people to a level that we can manage?

The first part is the long term plan, and the last part is the short term plan. At least it should be.

I agree that the general feeling went from "flatten the curve to buy the hospitals time to be properly prepared and not overflow" to "we must stop this virus before life can go on". If you look at the graphs from the initial "flatten the curve" material, the area under the curve was the same, it was just spread out over a longer period of time.

But here recently there seem to be more people convinced that we need to stay in our hidey-holes until a vaccine can be developed.

The part I struggle with is why the only guidelines we've been given are to wash your hands, stay away from people, and wear masks. Yet, no suggestions to help build up the immune system. I'm not saying that some vitamin cocktail will magically make the rona disappear, but it can't hurt for everyone to make sure they get a little extra vitamin C in their diet.

Joe Rogan just did a podcast with a Dr. who is studying the effects of vitamin D on various people and how they are affected by CV-19 based on the amount of vitamin D they have. Basically vitamin D is super helpful in boosting your immune system. What happens when you stay inside all day? Don't get in the sun for vitamin D.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Maybe the reason kids aren't getting hit so hard is because they have recess...

are people really getting outside less? I work in an office, so working at home without commute actually allows me to get outside and around my neighborhood more than when I'm at the office. Not sure if that's true for most people though.

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I have no clue about people being outside right now. What I do know is a lot of Americans spend a lot of time driving a desk inside most of the day and I'd be willing to bet that up until the quarantine, many of them were low on vitamin D.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Getting outside less is probably more of a thing of circumstance.
I'm at work on a longish car commute so, I don't get out much during the day on weekdays.

Medical sources I have been following have been talking about Vit D being very important for this type of a disease since January.

For people that live in urban environments in condos or apartments without access to a backyard, the closure of public spaces and parks almost assuredly was detrimental to the level of naturally created vitamin D.
Here in rural Virginia, out in farm country, not much has changed since most of the farmers have not altered their work pattern.

As for our family, we have made a conscious effort to be outside all day on weekends, drinking more vit D fortified milk (Vit D is fat soluble so milk is an excellent delivery vehicle) and periodic vit D supplement. 50 mg I think. (This is not medical advice, check with your physician first).

As well, we have been attempting to increase zinc intake through food consumption.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

yea, apartment/shared living space life, especially in the epicenters (NY and LA), there is probably less going outside. good point.

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This is why it's a headscratcher to me why parks and beaches were closed instead of simply setting guidelines and doing things like blocking off 50% of parking and having a policeman enforce parking rules that prevent more than the proscribed number of people from arriving and staying.

The cases where they were arresting people sitting on the grass in the park or running on beaches was a poor decision, in my unstudied opinion.

It is possible that it is one thing that now leads to the mass of humanity that flocks to these now-opening spaces, they've been restricted for so long and now have a real need for getting out.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The decisions were made extremely quickly. Don't over analyze bits of what was shut down and what wasn't. Those things were decided in the span of like 3 days. There's not necessarily a rhyme or reason to some of it other than a coin flip.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Oh, I agree but there was no discussion on official channels discussing st the level the decisions were made and as information came in, there was no modification and attempt to get the populace to buy - in. there was too much, "do as I say, not as I do." This is not a good prescription.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yup, they picked things and just rode them. Partially, I applaud them for sticking with it. They couldn't waiver in the middle. But unfortunately there was very little effort up front, planning adn understanding the consequences, and why I feel it has been a bumbled effort.......and I'll stop there.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I remember seeing somewhere that 90% of known transmission occurred indoors. I have no idea if that's factual or based on a study or something. But it is true that is easier to transmit a respiratory virus indoors where the conditions for virus survival are much better. The closing of beaches and parks probably didn't make a lot of sense (presuming the surrounding restaurants and bars were closed and social distancing guidelines were kept).

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I have seen this study mentioned by a few people. Seems like indoor places with prolonged contact is where transmission is occurring most frequently.

Is there some term for the phenomenon where really smart people waste tons of time and money over thinking a problem only to conclude the most logical common sense thing imaginable?

The most recent expert news is telling us we are better off outdoors and masks block spit from flying out of our mouth.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

The most recent expert news is telling us we are better off outdoors and masks block spit from flying out of our mouth.

Who knew?

This is why I came up with the following to describe many people I met in Ivy League grad school.

I met a lot of people that I would describe as "highly intelligent" but "not too bright."

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

I saw something the other day describing people as educated beyond their intelligence. Kinda like that one.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

You mean "say it don't spray it" is a real thing now? :)

I get the sentiment, and yes this is a bit of a "low hanging fruit" conclusion, but until you actually study and confirm a hypothesis, it is just that, an unconfirmed speculation. Plenty of important discoveries have been made by studying something seemingly obvious only to find that there is something counter intuitive happening below the surface.

So how do we get Americans to start wearing masks and stop thinking it's some BS affront to their civil liberties?

Well it should probably have never been downplayed at the beginning when we had everybody's full attention. It was more logical to assume they would help than the other way around. If it was an attempt to prevent hoarding, which I believe to be true, then it still could have been handled better.

Next, I would educate through public addresses,explaining when and where the masks are most effective. Mixed messaging turns people off.

Beyond that, it was always going to be an uphill battle because it has just never been done.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

The initial messaging was terrible, but not necessarily wrong. The message (as I remember) was that any mask other than N95 is unlikely to provide you much protection and we need to leave N95 masks to healthcare workers. Other types of masks may protect others if you're infected. That's all true, but everyone heard the first part and ignored or didn't care about the second. The messaging should have said masks are likely to prevent the spread from the beginning.

Also I don't know how you educate the public when very prominent figures view not wearing masks as a badge of honor.

The second half of that statement was largely ignored by the media, not just the people. And "all masks" were in short supply, not just n95s (and health care workers would have settled for any surgical grade mask.) The initial message was intended to keep people under lockdown through fear.

When you try to scare people into compliance, you lose credibility.

Stop doing stupid things like fining people $1000 for sitting a beach alone.

Recruit Prosim

The mask study performed on hamsters was done in Hong Kong. I don't really have any more to say about that, except it wasn't your tax dollars.

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Apparently hamsters are better listeners and decision makers than grown-ass adults.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

You've apparently never let a hamster out of his cage

Oddly enough I had a ton of hamsters growing up, so I know it isn't true, just making a joke about people.

Once a hamster figures out how to get from Point A to Point B, it is all they will do. Over and over again. If they like it under the dishwasher, they will go straight there every single time you let them out using the exact same path. Put something in their way, they will figure out how to go around it or move it and go right back to the predetermined path. Rinse, repeat.

Also, look up videos of wild hamsters attacking people. They are relentless.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Also, look up videos of wild hamsters attacking people. They are relentless.

i will do not such thing and you can't make me. that sounds objectively horrifying

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

to be fair, the hamsters didn't wear the masks.That would've been a much cooler study.

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

My outside time is probably about the same. It's hard to tell, though, because the weather has been a little all over the place. We'll go from 80 degrees and shorts on a Monday to 40s and frost warnings on a Friday. It's like Blacksburg weather took over all of Virginia.

What I do know is that at work, most of my time is spent in rooms with no windows or few windows. At home, my desk is next to a window. I don't know if the sunlight can get through to me, but at least the view is better.

But isn't one of the problems with CV19 an overactive immune system? I.e. cytokine storms attacking everything in their path and destroying tissue?

This is true, especially with the kids having coronary inflammation. The right balance is necessary. I don't know how Vit. D interacts with the immune system and cytokine expression, but having an appropriate response to the virus and little to no response to the host is an important consideration.

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Company claims antibody breakthrough

Any thoughts on this? It appears very promising but I struggle to see what the difference is between this approach and a standard vaccine. If this story is correct, what is the timeframe for distribution to individuals?

I'm an engineer not a doctor so take this with a grain of salt.
I think the difference is they would be injecting people with the antibodies. In a vaccine, you inject a dead or weakened version of the virus into a body and let the body develop the antibodies. I think they are getting the antibodies from the plasma of people who have already been infected and recovered.

Yes, this is pretty close.

Essentially, a vaccine requires your body to respond to provide protection. Vaccines are utilized prior to infection and may not work to get the desired immunity. And people will have different responses and ability to build their own antibodies.

A neutralizing antibody treatment, like the one proclaimed here, is a treatment that you inject the antibody into the individual and the antibody prevents further infection of cells. Essentially, if you get the disease, you can start treating the individual right away before the infection gets worse, and before the individuals immune system ramps up and responds. In addition, this works for individuals that aren't producing robust immune responses.

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I would treat this with a healthy dose of skepticism, I think.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

I read this morning that there are over 90 active vaccine development programs that are known. Everyone is trying to advertise any success they're having.

It's important to note that what is described above would be a treatment, and not equivalent to a vaccine that confers long-lasting immunity. Giving someone an antibody will potentially help clear the virus, but it's only effective for as long as a sufficiently high amount of antibody is in your bloodstream. As soon as it's gone, you've lost protection.

My greatest hope at the moment is the Oxford vaccine work; they seem to be the furthest ahead and we will get results of their first human trial next month.

Also important to note that we've never developed a successful vaccine for a coronavirus.

Leonard. Duh.

You mentioned above about not enough people doing their research. I agree and this would be a great time.

Up until now, that there hasn't been much reason develop a corona vaccine. They started on SARS and stopped because the disease fizzled out and funding dried up. There has never been serious funding for the handful of corona viruses that make up the common cold for obvious reasons. There has been significant effort to create a MERS vaccine and they were through phase 1/2 trials earlier this year. That same vaccine has been adapted to Covid-19 and proven effective in Rhesus monkeys with no sign of ADE which SARS-1 struggled with. They're already in phase 1/2 with early results expected in June.

We'll see. The fact that SARS mutated itself into something that wasn't worth aggressively pursuing a vaccine is maybe a good sign. A vaccine will be difficult to come by. Coronaviruses keep virologists on their toes with rapid mutation.

Leonard. Duh.

All current indication is that this is slowly mutating. Hopefully that continues.

Also I was unable to find sources that coronavirus as a whole are particularly fast mutaters. Searching is difficult because all the results are about this particular virus, not the family. Do you have any sources?

coronaviruses are a class of positive strand RNA viruses, which are inherently a high mutating virus class. Coronavirus does not mutate as fast as other postive RNA viruses though, such as influenza.

So, slow and fast are all relative. It mutates faster than many other viruses in other classes, slower than other viruses in its class.

Here is some explanation: Link1 Link2

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I thought influenza is a Coronavirus

Recruit Prosim

Influenza virus is a different family of virus than coronavirus. They have different genomes, different proteins, different mechanisms for infecting a cell, etc. They do share some symptoms of respiratory illness.

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There are 9 strains of COVID-19 now.
A vaccine could be just wishful thinking rather than something that is assured to happen in 12-18 months.

Sources on 9 strains please.

This is a point I almost never hear.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Like others have said, monoclonal antibody treatment is different than a vaccine. Vaccine is a prophylactic, monoclonal antibody is a treatment for someone currently infected.

Also, I've read that monoclonal antibodies are difficult/expensive to ramp up production. This may be old informatino though.

Most biologics (like a monoclonal antibody) are expensive to produce. You have to use a biological system to make it, purify it from the biological system, and then prepare it for medical use. Biological systems in themselves are expensive to maintain. All this must be done under GMP standards.

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That was my understanding. Thanks for confirming

I was just telling me wife, I think this virus could be the story of 2020.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

yeah whoever thought the first viral craze of the new decade would be a literal actual virus

good to see ya btw

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Thanks, ggc. good to see you as well.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

also, for what it's worth, i was very close to naming this thread "Coronavirus Discussion Thread X: Gon' Give It To Ya" but I decided that it was better off as a post than a title -- ya know, communicable disease and all

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

X gon' give it to ya (what?)
Fuck waiting for you to get it on your own, X gon' give it to ya (uh)
Knock knock, open up the door, it's real
With the non-stop, cough, cough, my lungs can't heal

Twitter me

Around thread VII, I started thinking of Star Wars puns.

Episode VII: The Virus Awakens
Episode VIII: The Last Nasal Swab
Episode IX: The Rise of Antibodies

Think Terminator movies might be better. At least in theory. But I guess there aren't enough of them to go around.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Coronavirus Discussion Thread XI: 11 Fast 11 Furious

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

After all this time, I finally learned yesterday that the kits do not actually go to the doctors offices and hospitals. They are the kit that the sample, gathered with the swabs, are used to run the assessment at the lab. There are shortages of the swabs and the extra reagent that goes into the kit, not a shortage of actual kits themselves. So there are 3 parts to the testing process.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I would like to see studies on impacts to mental health due to Covid and the assorted response measures. Without divulging sources, I know for a fact that certain already unstable populations are doing very poorly during this time. Considering the lack of mental health care in this country before this, I believe it will become an even bigger crisis.

I can't find the link but apparently suicide is up.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I saw that. Anecdotally, I feel that virtual appointments with their psychiatry team isn't as effective as in person visits. Some of the people in this population aren't even able to access the tools and technology to do this. They're not not getting the care they need and I don't want to think about what happens when the already frayed thread holding them on the right side of insanity finally snaps.

In Japan, suicide rates have declined.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Can you provide a link, as well as relevance to the discussion regarding mental health impacts due to Covid in the US?

Thanks. Considering the cultural difference between the US and Japan, especially involving the unhealthy obsession with achievement from a young age, I really don't see a similar trend towards reduced suicide here.

Aside from suicide, perhaps the farthest end of the mental health spectrum, I think depression, anxiety, and host of other related issues will see a substantial uptick. And given our track record not providing adequate access to care for these illnesses, the historically bad problem is going to get worse.

But thanks for bringing up an interesting perspective.

This is just anecdotal evidence from #sauces so I don't have links, but in some areas, suicides have gone down. The thinking is that most people prefer to do it alone while other household members are out of the house. With everyone staying at home, they're not getting that chance.

Of course, it's entirely possible that we'll see elevated numbers as lockdowns are lifted.

NFL legend Dexter Manley has tested positive and is on a ventilator

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Per this link, he isn't on a ventilator and is apparently not in imminent danger, all things considered.

Blacksburg/VT on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today. Screenshot included in lieu of paywall link.


Virginia Tech is responsible for more than half of Blacksburg's economy, generating about $1.2 billion in annual income, according to an analysis by researcher Emsi Labor Market Analytics. One of every two jobs is supported by the university, its students and visitors, according to Emsi estimates.

Spoiler alert: Blacksburg is hit pretty hard by this.

Twitter me

Blacksburgians: We hate the college. It's just a bunch of entitled kids. We'd be better off without them

Narrarator: They were not.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Growing up 20 minutes from Blacksburg, spending a ton of time there as a kid because my mother worked at VT, working there all through high school, and working at West End for a bit before leaving for the Army I was pretty much an honorary townie for the first 20 years of my life. I feel comfortable saying that the vast majority of people living in the area have NEVER uttered the first sentence and that virtually NO ONE has uttered the last. Even people who might have a particular disdain for the school know all too well it's economic importance for the region.

Now, that middle sentence is a different story.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

As a local for 27 years now, I can agree. Nobody says they hate Tech. They hate the students when driving and trying to find a parking spot that is about it.

Florida with over 1200 new cases logged yesterday, most since April 23.

Statements like that need some context.

The biggest part is what does the overall testing situation look like? Has testing increased?

Second...where exactly is that number coming from? Numbers are a little tricky to track down, because the DOH releases new numbers each morning, but they are probably counted for the day before.

Multiple sources are showing today's count at 777:
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/05/17/777-new-cases-of-coro...
https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-coronavirus-cases-top-45000-sunda...
https://www.winknews.com/2020/05/17/sunday-coronavirus-updates/

Yesterday's press release from FDOH showed 673 new cases - http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/05/051620-1324-covid19.pr.html

And, the context:

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) β€” There is a HUGE spike in new cases reported Sunday by the Florida Department of Health, but before you assume it's all doom and gloom, know that there was a significant increase in the number of tests conducted.

Of all the tests conducted or processed, 2,346 were "positive," which is 7.92 percent according to the DOH. That is actually LOWER than reports on Thursday and Friday, and well within the range of roughly 5 to 9.5 percent which has been the norm over the past two weeks.

Link.

The point may be legit, but BocaNewsNow is not.

Again, media distortion to support their view (and/or get clicks and eyeballs).

It's only distorted if you see it that way. The number of cases is accurate. That is not distorted.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It is distorted because they didn't report the whole story (re the increased number of test and the rates of positives.) If you only tell half the story you are distorting the story, period!

What if it had been reported this way - "After 2 weeks of the state being re-opened, positive corona virus test down 1.5%." Still completely factual, but it implies there is improvement when in reality, there was no change because the entire context isn't there.

In fact, they actually say "In fact" in the article...

n fact, while the latest numbers reveal at least 1200 new confirmed positive cases on Saturday (in numbers released Sunday), the DOH is also reporting a massive increase in testing.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Fair enough - that's what I get for not reading the link. Its still a click baity title though.

What is odd to me is that I can only find two sources with the 1200 number - the DOH site and the questionable Boca site. Everywhere else is reporting 777 cases. Right now, I can only speculate that 1200 is the unadjusted number before they reassign cases to other days based on when the tests were conducted.

But, some context from the Tampa Bay Times (which I hope is reputable):

State officials largely attributed Sunday's slightly above-average number of new COVID-19 cases to a large injection of test results received by the state Department of Health this weekend. On Saturday alone, the department said it received results from more than 29,600 coronavirus tests, the update said.

However, the number of new cases added to the state's total every day doesn't always reflect the number of cases discovered or confirmed in any given day. State health officials say large batches of results like Saturday's often include data from multiple days of testing. And the state's reported data often changes retroactively as health officials receive more information on each case.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/17/on-eve-of-full-phase-one...

I've seen 777 a lot as well...and DOH is now reporting 1160 for the 16th.

I suspect the inconsistency is due to the times the articles are published. The numbers get updated, even after the fact, as the times sort themselves out.

Perhaps the better number to track for trends would be hospitalizations, that number isn't influenced by testing rates.

FLDOH is not media.

BocaNewsNow is Andrew Colton's "hobby"...which co-mingles news, opinion, and PR...that he uses to compliment his litigation-related business.

Calling on TKP's biochemists and microbiologists to give some opinion and insight on this guy (Jacob Glanville) and his targeted and (hopefully) widely available antibody therapy as a treatment. He is CEO of Distributed Bio and a scientific adviser (no idea if this is significant) to a few schools like Stanford and UCSF.

edit: These responses are a great example of why we allow these threads to exist. A big thank you to everyone has responded so far offering your expertise or additional information, and thank you to people who will continue to provide information on this topic.

Biochemist by training (albeit 20 years since I've been in the lab), but then transitioned to the business side. A general caution for any one product or idea. You typically need thousands of compounds to be tested to get a handful into clinical trials. Then, depending upon the source you use, only something like 1 in 5 (give or take) will actually be safe and effective to get approval. I am quite optimistic that something - therapies and/or vaccines - will be available soon, but in drug development, "soon" is within a year or two. But that is because there are so many companies looking at so many compounds, from hydroxychloroquine to Actemra (which I actually worked on for a bit ages ago) or neutralizing antibodies like this. The concept is fine. Something will almost certainly work, but just don't get 2 excited about any given compound or method as even the things that are most promising heading into Phase 1 testing don't make it.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Worth noting that product being suggested is a targeted antibody, not a small molecule. You can design based off known antibodies that neutralize cell infection. To do so, you collect sera of patient that recovered from coronavirus infection. Identify antibodies from the sera that neutralize infection. Determine the sequence of the positive hits. Recreate using an appropriate biological system. Test the recreated antibody.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Oh yeah. Saw that he is hoping to make neutralizing antibodies. The concept is fine. Just time will tell if it works or not. Back when I was still a lab rat, the hot area was crystallography and trying to make antibodies to match the 3D structure of the target. But I'm not sure if that has panned out much better than the other hot area back then of combinatorial chemistry. Probably has, as CC hasn't helped much. Not sure how many of the macromolecule drugs (Rituxan, Herceptin, Actemra, Avastin, Enbrel ...) were made this way, but I don't think many. Could be wrong though. Felt like the rational design route has worked better for targeted small molecules like some in lung cancer, but again, that is just feel.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Crystallography is still used for drug discovery. I see it in recent patent applications that I've filed. All the applications I've seen are for discovery of small molecules, but not of macromolecules. Advancements in machine learning (especially neural networks) has dramatically improved the ability of using crystallography to virtually screen compounds on a protein target. Perhaps there is use for macromolecule discovery in the same vein, but I'm not aware.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Not sure what information you are looking for, but there is some discussion of neutralizing antibody treatments above. It's the same concept. You give a sick individual an antibody treatment that binds to the "spike" protein of the virus, which prevents the virus from entering the cell. It's a bona fide concept that works in many different viruses. Just need to get the right antibody (as determined by testing) that can neutralize coronavirus spread within a patient and show that the treatment benefits the patient. A major hurdle for general use is cost.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

The confounding thing is that sometimes what works in vitro won't work in vivo.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Very true and leg up! Although I would make one adjustment.

The confounding thing is that sometimes what works in vitro won't work in vivo.

The confounding thing is that most of the time what works in vitro won't work in vivo.

Brand name drug development is one of the most high-risk/high-reward things a company can go into. Remember a line from someone in the industry that was something along the line of, if you have cancer and you are a mouse, we can cure you very well. (Okay, a mouse model would not be in vitro, but you get the picture).

I used to also use one. The drug development pipeline is clogged with the sludge of compounds that looked great in the test tube.

Hey, how is the business going?

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

I wonder what it is we miss because we don't go further with things that don't work in vitro when it could work at least at a moderate level in vivo.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The weekend went well with some expected hickups that we quickly developed a new process that allows things that work but stay at a distance.

The people coming in generally were of a mind that we are just trying to follow all the new rules certainly in spirit. We didn't freelance too much.

Had some people come in exactly at the opening minute but some of the staff had not arrived yet. That kind of stuff.
We'll see what happens this weekend with the rain expected.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Sounds great. May you and your place ...

Live long and prosper.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Yea. That's true. Worth noting that using the sera of an individual that has been infected and recovered from coronavirus has shown "success" in treating patients having trouble from recovering. I don't think there have been any double blind studies, so it's still an open question of whether it would be truly effective to help patients.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

My understanding is that monoclonal antibodies are expensive and time consuming to produce. There are many companies that have announced promising results, but to my knowledge they'd all have the same manufacturing challenges. I'd love to be wrong though.

Edit. This was supposed to be in reply to Chris

Yes and somewhat with the expenses to make. Yes, they are more expensive than small molecules to make. There are very few companies that can make biosimilar products because you basically need your own plant and process to make monoclonal antibodies or other biologic macromolecules. It's not like a run-of-the-mill generic manufacturer can retool a plant to make these.

Although if you look at the initial drug development costs, those are so high that the physical manufacturing cost difference gets dwarfed by it. So cost to develop is probably not that much. But then to actually make it in mass quantities is much higher than small molecules.

Remember 1 discussion about the cost of drug development. Don't remember the exact numbers, but this guy is asked how much this pill costs to make. the answer was something like that pill in your hand costs 5 cents to make, but the first pill of that kind that was sold cost $450,000,000 to make. Drug development costs not much different. Production costs, vastly different.

Edit: Here is a link to a recent article showing how few companies have been able to make meaningful biosimilars. And, ironically, the biggest is the one that made the brand name products that the common biosimilars are made to mimic. Also notes some of the companies that have failed at it. Illustrates some of the challenges to making these products.

https://www.biosimilardevelopment.com/doc/which-biosimilar-companies-wil...

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

It took forever for the FDA to even consider Biosimilars. If I remember right, the makers of HUMIRA fought so hard to prevent biosimilars to prolong their profits. The patent on HUMIRA had already expired, but the company still had a monopoly on the drug because nobody could make a biosimilar due to FDA regulations. And even with the change in FDA law (in 2015 or so?), it's still hard to make biosimilars for the points you're stating above.

For those that don't know what a "biosimilar" is, it's the term used for a generic drug of a biologic (think large compounds like antibodies, proteins, etc.). The difficulty associated with a biosimilar is that the production method can dramatically affect its safety and efficacy (and pretty much impossible to completely reproduce the original manufacturing method). This is vastly different from a generic small molecule that is easy to re-manufacture with equivalent safety and efficacy. Thus, biosimilars have to go through nearly as many hurdles with the FDA as the original biologic drug and biosimilar companies still have to deal with the expensive manufacturing process.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

This is just a personal perspective of things around here (Charleston SC). We're mainly back to normal. A lot of full time jobs that can work remote still are but restaurants, bars, stores, beaches, boat ramps, parks are all back open with some loose restrictions. The majority of people here seem to have forgotten entirely or just don't care anymore. To my knowledge we don't have any crazy increase in cases. I went out to the bar Friday on Shem Creek (for those that don't know there are 4-5 bars that line the creek) each bar was packed. Went to the beach Saturday, literally no parking at Isle of Palms (200+ parking tickets issued), took the boat out Sunday and car traffic was normal if not higher getting to Georgetown at 7am. Very much seeing a light at the end of the tunnel here.

(add if applicable) /s

Saltwater Cowboy and Red's are always a good time.

Yeah I was at Reds. Waited about 30 minutes to get in for bar service. Saltwaters was pretty crowded, Water's Edge might have had over their actual capacity lol it looked ridiculously packed.

(add if applicable) /s

Next time your up in Georgetown go get some lunch buffet at Hog Heaven for me. Miss that place a lot.

Myrtle Beach is almost back to normal in terms of EMS and police calls. Already had a shooting at the skywheel and kid dropped from a balcony this past weekend.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I love Hog Heaven. You every try River Room? Georgetown would be such an awesome place if it didn't smell so bad. Damn paper mill.

I didn't go south of the bridge a lot unless it was to Charleston. Yea Georgetown has so much potential it could have been like Charleston if they got a deeper port and the interstate like Charleston did. A lot of hidden gems between Murrells Inlet and Mount Pleasant.
Brook Green Gardens night of a thousand candles is a family tradition when we lived there.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Makes me want to move there

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Following the science...

Dr Konstantin 'Cos' Boudnik, a world renowned computer SCIENTIST, vice-president of architecture at WANdisco, author of 17 US patents in distributed computing and a veteran developer of the Apache Hadoop framework that allows computers to solve problems using vast amounts of data recently penned an article for the Telegraph that pretty much calls out the Imperial College model as probably going down as the worst software mistake in history.

Fun fact from the article (behind a paywall)... The Imperial model was based on Fortran. Geezus.

Leonard. Duh.

Oh yessir. Forget the paywall then. Full speed ahead. I got there via the Telegraph which wanted me to buy a subscription. I will pay for a TKP key chain long before I do that.

Leonard. Duh.

Unfortunately that link is not very helpful. It basically says the model is probably wrong because it doesn't follow best coding practices. Maybe the Telegraph article actually covers some issues that they found, but I am not willing to pay to find out.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

The model is probably wrong because it doesn't work and was not peer reviewed.

I'll give you that for free.

Leonard. Duh.

Sorry, I guess I was looking for more than "didnt use best practices" and more of "here's where the model went wrong".

El. Psy. Kongroo.

It is poorly coded using a language not designed for the task to which it was put.
If you input the same values multiple times, it should respond with the same or very similar answer. It doesn't. It's not coded in such a way as to test and diagnose each small calculation step. Therefore you cannot trust any of the conclusions drawn from the output data it provides.

To draw it into an analogy.
Let's say you You create a machine that will divide a pie (or cake) into 13 equal slices. but have no way to adjust it until you have sliced 500 pies.
At the end of the run of 500 pies you find that some pies are cut into 12 slices, some into 14 but you don't have a way to measure the size of the slices and the guy evaluating the pies at the end is blind, and so have to just wing it making some adjustments and cut another 500 pies.

Then you realize that nobody else can measure the slices either so, you just go with it.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

That well may be true. My point is the article linked (the free one, not the telegraph one) appears to place the blame on the language itself (fortran) rather than the code, which is silly.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

I don't know a thing about modeling (any more), but I'm not sure it's true that if you input the same thing that you should always get the same result. I know it's not true with certain types of projections, which introduce randomness into some variables because there is a lot of uncertainty that is not easily accounted for, and then do multiple runs to see which ones are statistically more likely to happen - see weather and election forecasting.

I am not commenting on this particular article or issue - I don't care, I have my opinion and this article won't change it - but that particular argumentation point, without context or explanation, doesn't seem as cut and dried as it might seem.

Wait, what?

I remember thinking at the time that it was strange, for such a global issue, there weren't other studies being done to either back or contradict the model. Of course this guy is only about three months late to the party so, what am I supposed to do, pat him on the back?

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

I don't know anything about the Model, but what's wrong with Fortran?

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

According to Mr. Smartypants who wrote the article. Fortran doesn't allow for testing of the individual parts to ensure the whole model works, and causes the model to output wildly different results without changing input parameters. That's not scientific at all.

My take - Fortran is really, really old.

Leonard. Duh.

Fortran is really really old, but the language itself would not be the reason why it would return different outputs for the same inputs. If that's the case, its because of whatever was coded, not because of the language.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

yeah, I'm not following that. You can debug Fortran. It's a good, fast language. There's an awful lot of public-safety-related engineering still in use that was done in Fortran.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

There's an awful lot of rocket science that was done in Fortran too...but that's mostly because of the golden age of rockets.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

And just imagine what a cluttered mess your software looks like if it was just straight translated into C.

This is the hell that I'm dealing with these days.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I had some of the same initial thoughts as you after reading the article, but after talking to my father who has programmed in languages from Fortran to Python I am less skeptical about that piece.

Some findings in a few minutes of googling:
Fortran's latest revision is from 2018.
Fortran is governed by ISO standard ISO/IEC 1539-1:2018.
Fortran is used in research and complex engineering settings due to its stability.

I don't doubt that they did not use modern standards of code compartmentalization and testability, but the use of Fortran isn't a glaring error.

Phew, it is still one of the few programming languages that Tech made me learn that I break out for coding once a decade.

A few tidbits pertaining to our favorite time of year...

So that's two schools trying to get in and get out and build up a cushion at the end of the year. Not unlike the plan many grade schools have for snow days.

This is going to be the big debate when we get to that stage.

So, is the theory that COVID will be dormant in the summer, but active again in the winter, thus schools are shifting their semester earlier?

Twitter me

Or it gives them a cushion if something happens in the meantime.

I wondered that myself.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Seasonality is unknown but very unlikely (it's circulating all around the world and the southern hemisphere, which has been in summer/fall, is not being spared). A few possible interpretations:

1. The semester starts earlier but effectively without classes - students enrolling in school arrive early to campus and essentially "quarantine" for two weeks before classes start. This is a result of people coming from all over the world with who knows what level of exposure.

2. Buffer time in case the semester has to halt because of an outbreak that forces cessation of in-person activities.

Fall break is going to be canceled at a lot of universities to reduce the likelihood of students returning home and bringing anything back. Of course, no plan is foolproof and will 100% insulate any university community from students, staff, or faculty from traveling and becoming exposed, but it's one effort.

The early termination of the semester is likely an effort to get everyone off campus before things get bad, as a result of the normal cold and flu season, and the likelihood that no COVID-19 vaccine will exist yet. The seasonality of COVID-19 has not been demonstrated, but no public health system wants the normal cold and flu season to be augmented by COVID-19. It of course will (barring a miraculous vaccine appearing) but getting everyone off campus is best for any university, which normally has crowded dorms and dining halls, and insufficient health center resources to deal with a full-blown outbreak.

Getting everyone off campus before Thanksgiving also achieves the same thing as cancelling fall break - no one is bringing anything back from a large family gathering.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Just a friendly reminder in this time of online learning and online games replacing things like dance and swim practice. Our 11 year old just got a message from a "friend" on some online game asking if she was a girl and wanted to date. She was smart enough to block them immediately and let us know. Just keep an eye out and focused even more with you kids these days.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Well that escalated absudly.

Good on ya for havin a woke kid, nicely done.

As a father of two girls under 11....

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Sometimes I feel like I have to get one of those.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Two is one, one is none.

That's why I have 37...

a friend of my sister was recently widowed and is auctioning off her husbands gun collection:

https://www.enlistedauctions.com/auctions/detail/firearms-fuller-estate-...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

THAT...IS...ONE...HELL OF A COLLECTION!!!

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

yeah no joke. I was shocked anyone could own that many guns

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

The only reason I don't own more, is because my 40 gun safe is full and I don't want to move two gun safes when I buy a house in the next year or two...

This struggle is real. I only have a 14 gun safe, but that SOB is still a bitch to move.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

I wasn't. I have a few family and friends that have impressive collections. None quite as extensive as this one though. Do you know if he was a dealer? No beef with anyone collecting, but when people have duplicates or many of the same caliber/type firearm that aren't antiques, questions start buzzing in my head.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Nope. No idea.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

How do you see the full collection? The photos I see only show like 6-8 guns. Less than 20% of my current (modest) collection. I must be missing something.

Did you scroll on the auction site?

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

I scrolled and saw nothing. I also see no option for "all" category. I'm on mobile, perhaps that's the issue.

Edit: mobile issue. Saw on desktop. Nice collection but not a lot that interests me. Fun to browse though.

Likely.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

click "select category" and change it to "All"

dude has 302 items being auctioned (some of that is ammo lots)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Guy definitely had a very solid collection.

Hmm, wonder if my cousin still has any M1 carbine ammo left. Grandad had one and a wood ammo box of full bandoliers.

Not that hard. Just have to find a woman to do it with.

Leg.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Here is one of the guys I have been following for a few months regarding this issue.
A decent sized study out of S. Korea explains why it has appeared as if some were getting reinfected but actually were not. TLDR - it's because bit if the rna sequence remains in some of the infected cells, in the lungs, in a denatured state for 3-6 months. those bits of RNA are expressed but the very sensitive test detects them. It cannot determine their viability, just their presence.
SFW
https://youtu.be/uATMbGK__Tg

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This would be very good news, I think. If we can confirm that you can't get reinfected that would be a big deal.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

It was probably 4 or 5 of these threads ago, but VTGuitarMan explained how this testing method can result in positive tests from no longer active RNA strands showing up in the test, indicating that someone several weeks recovered could have "re-tested positive," without it meaning they had another active Covid infection.

It was one of the coolest things to come out of these threads (IMO).

Yes, that was one of the conclusions in the S Korea study according to some medical sources but has yet to be translated into english.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This could lead to the conclusion that Herd immunity strategies would be effective.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Depends on your definition of effective, I think. It seems that once enough people get the virus it will die out due to herd immunity. Most estimates are around 70% of the population to achieve herd immunity. There will be LOTS of lives lost before we get there though. New York is estimated to have 14% of the population had or have the virus and they've lost over 28,000 lives. There's a lot more death between 14% and 70%.

Not definitive as the study needs review and time exposed to the sunlight.

Bryan shared a slide summarizing major findings of the experiment that was carried out at the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center in Maryland.

It showed that the virus's half-life -- the time taken for it to reduce to half its amount -- was 18 hours when the temperature was 70 to 75 degrees Fahrenheit (21 to 24 degrees Celsius) with 20 percent humidity on a non-porous surface.

This includes things like door handles and stainless steel.

But the half-life dropped to six hours when humidity rose to 80 percent -- and to just two minutes when sunlight was added to the equation.

When the virus was aerosolized -- meaning suspended in the air -- the half-life was one hour when the temperature was 70 to 75 degrees with 20 percent humidity.

In the presence of sunlight, this dropped to just one and a half minutes.

Sunlight destroys coronavirus quickly, say US scientists

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I think most doctors/scientists agree at this point that it's very unlikely you'll get the virus outdoors. This backs that up. Every one of the "superspreading" events I've heard about are indoor activities (the guy in South Korea that went out clubbing and infected over 100; the Arkansas church where 38% of members got it; NYC subways, etc.).

So you mean all the students on the beach weren't necessarily wrong? Just what they did at night in the bars was wrong.

As long as they weren't drunkenly yelling in each others faces, sharing beer bongs, and indiscriminately making out with strangers, sure.

So, basically, no.

"Sunlight is the best disinfectant."

~Everybody's mom for years.

Leonard. Duh.

I would really like to see what the review of that study came up with, since the article was published on 24 April.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Random question for the more informed.

The virus is out there and a lot of people are either asymptomatic or just don't notice any symptoms. How long do they have the active contagious virus in their system before they naturally kill it off?

IE Joe has the virus, but doesn't know he has. He is practicing social distancing because that is what a responsible adult does. He never shows any symptoms so never gets tested. How long until he is recovered? 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 6?

I don't think we know how long asymptomatic people are contagious. I don't think we even know how long symptomatic people are contagious. There's some new research that's pointing to many people not being contagious at all and a lot of the spread being due to "superspreaders" that shed tons of live virus for some reason. That stuff is early preprints, though, so take it with a grain of salt.

I'm seeing some ideas start to get floated around for next school year (non-college level). One of the ideas is to start with online classes, partially to get the kids back in learning mode.

Psst. Whoever came up with that idea clearly has not been stuck at home with elementary school kids for two months. That idea might work for middle or high school, but it's not going to work with elementary.

teachers are sweating this too. i am not convinced any model of school that is heavily reliant on online learning will be successful

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

It's not going to work well anywhere IMO. Online education of a 6th grader is a struggle. If I was in college, I'd take a gap year before I paid full price for a lame online experience.

I have been loving telework since I have a miserable commute but it is not a good long-term solution either. It works right now because everyone on the team already knows everyone else. But how do you establish a good relationship with a person who is new to the org? Also, I've noticed meetings are slightly more tense recently. I don't know if it is stress from extended telework or if it is the internet thing where it is easier to be rude to someone from behind a keyboard as opposed to face-to-face.

This also assumes adults who are temporarily remote will still be working from home come September, and will have the time to keep facilitate learning at the same time

It is even worse for kids who already struggle with school in the classroom and don't have the support at home to help them with their school work. Those kids are being removed from a classroom at a critical developmental stage which may have long term consequences.

We need to stand up and kill that thought process right now. It wont work.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

Needs to go plaid.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

just a reminder:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

There are dozens of us

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Now this is the high quality post we come to TKP for. I need to print this out and put it on my home and office door. When I can get back into the office, of course.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

sure. but where this thread gets in trouble is where people start exploring the boundaries and overlaps there.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I feel like the discourse on this particularly website is mostly nuanced and/or respectful with really only a few outlier convos going off the rails. Something other places though... could really use to internalize that venn diagram.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Jet Sweep

We just got an interesting update from one of our affiliates in Peru. Outside vendors to a mine site are limited in the total number on-site and even when allowed on site must be in mask, face shield and coveralls. Before being allowed on site, they must go through two week quarantine at their hotel. No inter-city travel. Sites may have additional controls in place.

"We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. "

I'M GOING TO EAT IN-MOTHERFUCKING-SIDE OF A RESTAURANT TONIGHT!!!!!!!

Leonard. Duh.

Stupid is as stupid does

HH4455

c'mon man

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

You had no choice but to pull out the big guns.

Okay, okay... I'm out. Happy Memorial Day. Please don't kill this thread because of reaction to me. I like THREAD X.

Leonard. Duh.

TBH, reactions to the dumb things you're saying have already killed multiple threads.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

s/

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

So...
CDC finally releasing some real data. Looks like the fatality rate is around (0.4 to 0.5)% for SYMPTOMATIC cases. Oxford and Stanford have run those numbers and included results of antibody studies (either post symptomatic or asymptomatic) and the case fatality rate drops to between 0.03% and 0.1 %.

Everybody has been screaming at me that you can't compare this to the flu. Well...that damn sure looks like the flu to me.

Leonard. Duh.

There's lies. Damn lies. And statistics.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

links pls

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Link to the CDC data you mentioned in the OP pls.

Thank you for sharing this.

You are certainly welcome.

Leonard. Duh.

For some reason you seem to think that finding one or a couple people who share your dissenting opinion with nice degrees/positions of employment somehow makes you unequivocally right.

Ignoring that plenty of people from other respected research institutions/relevant positions of employment continue to disagree.

Your presence in these threads has been a pretty constant example of confirmation bias.

I'm not ignoring CDC data. See below.

"Dissenting opinion"? That's interesting. I had no idea that science was up for a vote.

Leonard. Duh.

You seem to be dismissing any opinions that challenge the original narrative that you support which ironically is also confirmation bias.

The "narrative" I support? I'd love to know which one you think I support. I'd also love to see examples of where I am doing this.

I'm trying to moderate a topic where Leonard has incited multiple closings of these threads. Forgive me if I'm getting tired of this schtick .

I'm just posting CDC data (with links pls).

Insight and incite do rhyme, though. I'll give you that.

Leonard. Duh.

Not answering your question, but color me extremely skeptical that many places will actually adhere to these 50% capacity rules, and that's not even discussing whether or not 50% capacity is even a remotely defensible practice scientifically.

This is from last week. It gave me the impression you were in the camp of let's continue to lockdown indefinitely. Forgive me if I have am off the mark here.

While I agree there have been a few instances where Leonard's tone hasn't been conducive for a productive discussion, I don't think it's fair to say he incited the multiple closings of other threads. Oddly enough it was some other users who couldn't handle him disagreeing with their position and launched into derisive tirades.

For some reason you seem to think that finding one or a couple people who share your dissenting opinion with nice degrees/positions of employment somehow makes you unequivocally right.

CDC, Stanford, Oxford, etc. He's linked the sources. You'd think from your accusation that he is sighting his friends uncles Facebook page. Leonard has said over and over that he and his family are taking precautions. He has maintained that his opinion is that the public and especially the government have overreacted based on poor models built with incomplete data. If you disagree then make a compelling argument and site your sources, don't just talk down at him and say he is a case study in confirmation bias.

Not answering your question, but color me extremely skeptical that many places will actually adhere to these 50% capacity rules, and that's not even discussing whether or not 50% capacity is even a remotely defensible practice scientifically.

This is from last week. It gave me the impression you were in the camp of let's continue to lockdown indefinitely. Forgive me if I have am off the mark here.

I do think you made a pretty aggressive jump to take it from me being skeptical of the enforcement or scientific validity of 50% capacity restaurants making a difference all the way to "I want to keep things locked down indefinitely". For clarity, I have not been under a stay at home order or total lockdown to date. We had a "Home or Work Order", that had an exceptions list many times longer than the order itself. It barely changed anything other than you couldn't go to the Gym. However, you took the time to write this out and I think you deserve a full response as a result.

Here are the 2 main reasons (among others, mostly tangential to these two):

1. Small businesses/locally owned restaurants were hit hard by this. Much harder than say a Lowe's, Home Depot, Grocery Store Chain, or Walmart which were allowed to stay open considered essential. There is a LOT of incentive to allow more than 50% of people, especially if you have people lined up begging to give you their business($) that may be the difference between you saving your restaurant and taking care of your family. I think ethically this is totally defensible for someone to fudge that 50% into 60, 70, maybe even 80, perhaps even just not really "paying too much attention to whether it's 50% or not." I don't intent to fault that person, but forgive me for thinking that some people might be hesitant to strictly self-enforce these rules on themselves which leads to...

2. Local governments: Mayors, Governors, Sheriffs, all elected positions who will almost certainly not want to have their names tied to police busting into local restaurants and giving small business owners a hard time about strictly enforcing 50% capacity rules. I will not delve anymore into this as it can get very political, but in the simplest terms: If you hold one of those offices and employ the police to strictly enforce and break the balls of small locally owned restaurant owners over this... you're hurting your shot at re-election.

The part about it being scientifically backed I think is just a very fair question in general. In my state (SC), I have not one ounce of precedent to trust that Henry McMaster looked into and will enforce the most scientifically sound indoor layouts, air flow, and spacing requirements based on scientifically sound transmission information. However, this article I read this morning is the first thing I've seen that actually attempts to break down with some transmission based evidence considerations (provided in this article with fairly detailed diagrams of some major and minor spread events) that Restaurants will need to make. In this article I've linked you will find an example where one sick person at a table infected people at the rest of their table, and two other tables, because the air flow from the A/C was pushing their infected aerosol droplets towards specifically the two tables in the path of the airflow. Other nearby tables were unaffected.

I don't think it's fair to say he incited the multiple closings of other threads

Well I can tell you for a fact that he was the instigator in several threads being closed down. Even when, as you mentioned, sometimes it was other people disagreeing with him that put it over the limit. Many of these triggering events have NOT been thoughtfully curated arguments. It's often something much closer to trolling, and he's even admitted as much that he tends to do this a lot to rile people up. These threads are not meant for spicy hot takes to see if you can send someone off the edge, it's for TKP's members with inside information and expertise to share their wealth of knowledge and provide key information that may not be easily available through more traditionally available media to TKP's readership.

CDC, Stanford, Oxford, etc. He's linked the sources. You'd think from your accusation that he is sighting his friends uncles Facebook page. Leonard has said over and over that he and his family are taking precautions.

This is drastically misrepresenting what I said. My issue with him selecting one or a couple experts who he agrees with is that he isn't presenting the information as "lets consider this different opinion," he's using annoying tongue in cheek remarks like "some community college in the UK...." and on his original post about this, wording in such a way that it seems to be more about trying to prove to everyone he was right.

That's not posting things for the benefit of community, that's patting himself on the back for his interpretation of some data, that he did NOT link where he got those numbers from. What he is doing represents a lack of understanding of how science, particularly emergent science, develops over time. This is also just a part of academia on ANY subject. Academics push things forward through disagreement, testing each others theories, and dissent at key junctures. This is how many scientific revolutions, many of which lead to completely incommensurable frameworks to the previous paradigm, came to exist. There is a tremendous amount of disagreement on just about any academic subject, including scientific fields, and especially when dealing with an emergent subject like COVID-19 where we are constantly learning more about this everyday. Some science is far more established than others. Most scientists/professors/academics/random people on the street agree that we are orbiting the sun. That's a very different level of knowledge and understanding than the few months of research many of these people been able to conduct on COVID-19 and the transmission of this particular virus.

Citing one professor, one epidemiologist, one model does little to make or prove such a broad point as Leonard has been pushing. The dissent is natural, it exists for a reason, but it does not exist so random internet users can find the one or two people who hold a similar opinion and try to tout it as proof their being right. That to me expresses ignorance towards the bigger picture of what all of the experts involved are moving towards.

This is the first time I wished I had a +200 vote

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

If you hold one of those offices and employ the police to strictly enforce and break the balls of small locally owned restaurant owners over this... you're hurting your shot at re-election.

Virginia has an interesting situation where the governor can't be re-elected (at least not consecutively). But perhaps that office holder has other political aspirations? So you never really know what kind of response you are going to get.

Thanks for the heads up. It's fixed now. I had copied over the link I intended to paste in there. So it was just text from one of the quotes I was attempting to address haha.

My one leg was not near enough for this post. Here's two more:

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Even if the opinions are in the minority, they are worth sharing.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

Never mind.

The attorney representing the ignored senders in my spam folder said that, too.

Also...
From the CDC website

Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in years
Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC
0-49: 0.0005
50-64: 0.002
65+: 0.013
Overall: 0.004

Leonard. Duh.

Doesn't make sense. NYC has had around 16,000 people die of CV19. If you extrapolate, 16,000 / 0.004 means 4 million people in NYC (half the population) would have had CV19. That seems unlikely given that the virus has really only been here for 3 or 4 months (most of those deaths were up front), the stay at home orders, and the precaution most people are taking to this virus. I don't know if these CDC stats are wrong or right, but it could be that they are off by an order of magnitude (10X), like they put one too many zeros after the decimal.

Agreed, the CDC reported the case fatality ratio, not the percentage, so multiply those numbers by 100.

Death numbers won't be accurate for years.

(add if applicable) /s

True, and the death numbers will almost certainly be significantly higher than what is currently reported.

LOL you don't know that at all the reporting on deaths has been awful. Even my friends that work in infectious disease have no idea how many deaths this is caused saying it going to be higher is an absolute guess at best.

(add if applicable) /s

Just be patient, my brother. Those attributed deaths will go down. There is much controversy on what gets called a COVID death. The flu did kill 80,000 people in 2018. Dr. Birx has recently estimated that total COVID numbers may be inflated by as much as 25%, so... yeah.

However, I'm only referring to the rate. A lot more people are going to show antibodies than a flu, thus bringing down the rate.

Completely and totally wrong? C'mon man. Dig a little and then you may just judge me as more of a middle of the road kind of wrong.

Leonard. Duh.

From CDC, CDC estimates that from 10/1/2019 through 4/4/2020 there were between 39,000,000 - 56,000,000 flu illnesses in the US. They also estimated 24,000-62,000 flu deaths.

Imagine what the deaths would be from Covid-19 if we hit between 39-56m cases, considering we're only at 1.62M confirmed cases in the USA right now

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

We've had a lot more cases than 'confirmed' cases . Again all these numbers in comparison to the flu are pointless. These numbers mean almost nothing at this point and won't for a long time. Its safe to assume we have a lot more cases than reported though.

(add if applicable) /s

Oh... the number of COVID cases (post present with/without symptoms) will definitely be higher than 1.62 mil.

You can book that. The debate is going to rage on over what is a COVID death exactly, though. I have no assumptions on that, though. I'm just skeptical.

Leonard. Duh.

Oh... the number of COVID cases (post present with/without symptoms) will definitely be higher than 1.62 mil.

You can book that.

Did you eat your laptop yet? That's quite a bit higher than 100k πŸ˜‰

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Laptop eaten. For sure.

Leonard. Duh.

There won't be debate the way you mean because we use the same damn thing for things like the flu, cancer or a host of other illnesses and diseases. You get cancer that shuts down say your liver well your liver failure killed you but it's a cancer death. Same with COVID, get off this conspiracy theory bullshit about hospitals and doctors miscoding COVID deaths for money or whatever else the fuck your going on about constantly.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Same with COVID, get off this conspiracy theory bullshit about hospitals and doctors miscoding COVID deaths for money or whatever else the fuck your going on about constantly.

I was going to let this thread ride, but...no.

Bro... I've never said anything about doctors miscoding COVID for money. Maybe I've misinterpreted some of the stuff I read in my ignorance, but you are blatantly and intentionally mischaracterizing my comments that I've only presented as food for thought.

That's very rude.

Leonard. Duh.

The flu did not kill 80,000 people in 2018. You are making that number up. According to the CDC estimate, 32,400 people died from the flu over the 2018-2019 flu season. If you want people to take you seriously, you could try not making things up. That would be a start.

CDC

If you look at 2017-2018, there are multiple articles out there citing the CDC that 2018 would have 80k flu deaths when it was all said and done. 1. WebMD 2. CNN 3. NY Times

I'm not on anyone's side here, but I don't think he was just making it up.

If you had looked at the data from your link- the 2017-2018 data, the CDC says this:

Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?

The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information. There is a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy of the burden estimates.

Let's be careful about assuming so quickly that someone on the other side is trying to manipulate/lie about this, despite how much we disagree.

Even if true, that's 80,000 with zero social distancing, zero masks, zero closures. Schools, theatres, football games, concerts, and nursing home visits going continuously. We are only 4 months in with tons of mitigation and about to hit 100k and that's without testing everyone who has passed to confirm cause of death. This is exponentially worse. Arguing morbidity rates and effect of a flu shot vs no Covid shot is pointless - the current fact is we don't have a Covid shot.

Just trying to understand the numbers here. I might be misunderstanding, but the mortality/fatality rate is just the percentage of people who caught the virus that died. So it is possible that COVID and the flu could have a similar mortality rate, but one virus has affected more people.

That's absolutely possible. (Probable, more than likely.)

Also, these CDC numbers indicate the CFR for symptomatic cases. In a previous comment I pointed out that epidemiologists at Oxford, and more prominently at Stanford have run estimates that insert the asymptomatic numbers based on antibody studies and have come up with a CFR between 0.03 and 0.1 across all age groups.

My presence here is just an example of someone who is truly concerned about the elderly and the existence of the global economy. Simultaneously.

Leonard. Duh.

if we look at the number of cases, the number hospitalized, and the number of deaths, covid is nothing like the seasonal flu [which is oft cited as having a CFR of 0.1%]

here are Florida's posted numbers as I type this...49,451 cases; 9117, hospitalizations; 2190 deaths

to be like the seasonal flu, there would have to be over 2 million cases in Florida leading to those 2190 deaths.

if one wants to make the case that covid-19 is primarily a concern for people over 50, I'll buy that. however, the notion that this is in the same league as the flu, based on the current knowns, is off base

There's a vaccine for the flu. Is there one for Covid-19? Hard to compare death, or even sick rates until then.

Tyrod did it Mikey, Tyrod did it!!

ECU is eliminating 4 sports because of Covid-19 budget shortages.

Link

I'm surprised they didn't just avoid Covid all together by fleeing to Florida

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

I expect we are going to start seeing this a lot more especially if football isn't played in the fall.

App St cutting three sports, too

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Something for those with kids (or anyone really). SpaceX's first manned space launch is scheduled for ~4:30 PM on Wednesday the 27th. I've got a work meeting then, but our 11 year old is set to watch the launch live. We've let her know that these launches are dangerous so she is prepared in case something happens. But the first commercial launch to the space station is a bit of history that might be worth sharing. With schools being virtual, I was surprised that I have not heard this as a school assignment. Probably is some places. Links for how to watch below:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-watch-spacex-launch-astronauts-to-the...
https://www.discovery.com/dnews/nasa-launch-of-spacex-capsule-to-air-on-...

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

So Riley is jumping up the respect boards with this. So what's his (duck milkshake) milkshake duck* that's going to make him plummet back down.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Which part is confusing?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Why we care what Lincoln Riley is tweeting, or re-tweeting in regards to Covid19. And...well...whatever....CG's and all.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Well first he is one of the few vocal football coaches worried about his staff, Players and returning to football too fast during this. Second if we have people listening to a pizza reviewer I figure we can balance it out with a football coach.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

if we have people listening to a pizza reviewer I figure we can balance it out

So *this* is making him skyrocket up the respect boards........ok.
And you want him to plummet back down........ok.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yes it makes him skyrocket up, compare him to say Dabo or mullet from OKST not at all Worried about their Staff and players. I don't want him to fall, but it's what happens, someone does something great and then it comes out something shitty they did prior.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Putting duck in a milkshake confused me.

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

I'm sure it's been done

also, quoting for posterity's sake

So what's his duck milkshake that's going to make him plummet back down.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

according to google trends, "milkshake duck" has been searched for many times over from all over the US. Conversely, "duck milkshake" has been googled exactly once, from Virginia, by me trying to figure out what the hell you were talking about.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Meh put the words in the wrong order not a big deal.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

inviting the community to speculate about what might make a coach fall from collective good graces isn't really what we want this thread to be. and that's beyond the fact that any discussion of "privilege" and what constitutes privilege is inherently risky wrt CGs

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I see in the responses to his tweet he's getting the full "shut up and dribble" treatment.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

VA Gov Northam announced this afternoon face coverings required starting Friday, all brick and mortar retail and also eating a drinking establishments, all governmental services and grooming establishments. Exceptions for people under 10y.o., medical conditions and/or if eating.

I work in a 20,000 sq ft facility with 2 other people in a place that I am now required to wear a mask.
If I don't wear a mask, my boss risks losing his license. I'm the highest at risk person here.
In my humble opinion, its another bludgeon when a scalpel is the proper tool.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I think the issue he's facing is people ignoring the scalpel, thus requiring them to be bludgeoned.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Correct, on Saturday I drove past a line of at least 75 people waiting to get in a Ross clothing store. Very little social distancing and 98% without masks.

Including himself ignoring his own rules..
Except he knows when he doesn't wear a mask at work, he won't be faced with someone pulling the license of his business.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Oh, you mean that boneheaded mistake which he acknowledged as a mistake and apologized for? In his defense, he was outdoors, however people wanted to take selfies with him. He likely should have anticipated that scenario and wore a mask as a preventative measure. It was stupid; I know it, you know it, he knows it. He's a human, not a deity, and he makes mistakes. At least he put his pride aside and apologized, which you don't see too much of nowadays. Humility goes underappreciated.

But go ahead, continue to look for stuff to complain about. I get it, you are angry at the situation...and that is okay. I just wish people would direct that anger more constructively.

Edit: Damn. I was going to suggest that you look to the brewery guy from the previous coronavirus thread (IX) as a guide for how to approach this situation constructively. I went back and checked...that was you. I applaud previous thread you and recommend that you be more like him. He was a beacon of hope. Current thread you makes me sad and fearful of the local restaurant workers preparing my food.

So, you see. From the previous thread I am careful and considerate and will follow rules.
To a point.

Imagine, if you will, a large facility,so far out that I cannot see another building, hot and humid, empty except for 2 other people that spend most of the day over 40 ft apart. They have done so for many months. Imagine if you will that I am now to pretend that I must treat these other 2 guys as if they have the plague.

Imagine I took a rule that goes out here and made people in Richmond and Northern Virginia obey it. Imagine the crap I'd get if I jammed that down their throat.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Just wear your mask incorrectly like people do here in CA all the time. Think of it as more of a beard guard than something to cover your mouth and nose.

Some of the masks are more for the theatre. I see women scolds whom faun over the crochet and knitted masks.
It's not stopping a grain of sand, let alone such a small biologic as a virus.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Wearing a mask is literally the least you can do to help keep those around you safe. These rabid complaints about mask wearing are just insane.

This virus is spread the majority of the time by aerosolized particles from infected people to others. A mask is absolutely the best thing to help those particles from leaving the infected person via coughing and sneeezing.

Maybe I'm not being clear.
If you live in a house with another person, you have a better chance of moving a virus from one person to another than I do at work. If you are ever in a car with another person, you have a better chance of moving a virus from one person to the next.

I'm going to break it down. The half life of an aerosolized virus in my environment on a brew day is incredibly small. Very hot, very humid environment. That particle would have to travel over 40 ft and drop an altitude of about 15 feet and go from one mouth directly into another.

Me, wearing a mask at work, would be virtue signalling only.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Okay, sure, you don't want to wear a mask at work. I get it. There's virtually no one there to infect anyway. Are you opposed to wearing it when it comes to other parts of your life, like grocery shopping? I can't tell from your arguments whether you are fully anti-mask and using the example of your work place to justify it, or only anti-mask at your particular place of work.

Why I'm asking is because most people are not in your category when it comes to workplaces. They have close interactions with other people. If you want to reopen, PPE must be incorporated somehow. It's not logical to think the state can make different exceptions for every type of workplace. It is just a mask - a piece of material that covers your nose and mouth. I do not see what the big deal is.

better to say "you can be open, but with a mask" than to keep places closed entirely?

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Yeah, I don't get it. I think people are cranky and directing the negativity it towards him. Wear a mask, it's not rocket surgery.

It's a ridiculous requirement to have me wear a mask at work, which according to those rules, I must.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

But it's a mild inconvenience at worst, right? It's like wearing a seat belt when you drive; it's not the most comfortable thing in the world, but it's not that much of a hindrance.

Twitter me

Nope, I find them incredibly uncomfortable in nice conditions.

On a brew day in a brewery? 100+ F and humid as hell, I wear performance wicking underwear and T-shirt and still get really uncomfortable. I'm boiling 3000+ gallons of liquid all day long in a non air conditioned space while standing up top on a platform and walking and moving heavy gear.
Last brew, fitbit told me I climbed 35 stories and had 13,000 steps. Long pants, long sleeve shirt, steel toe boots.

That's my day tomorrow. 7:30 Am- 6:30 PM.
I wear a mask while I mill 2300+ of grain because the dust is a nuisance
I'm fine with it and I really like the work, but being forced to wear a mask because 40 ft from 2 other guys is too close? I take reasonable precautions. I'm a big enough boy to take care of myself.

What exactly am I protecting while wearing a mask capable of filtering a virus, while working this job?

I am not sitting in some airconditioned office sipping on an ice cold soda.

And trust me, I have spent enough time to know how to wear the stuff between Navy and Nuclear power plants.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I'm a big enough boy to take care of myself.

I applaud you. Unfortunately the restrictions are being forced because most Virginians/Americans are proving that they are not able to act responsibly on their own.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I understand your frustration, but was the mask requirement supposed to carve out every possible scenario with precision? Obviously your situation sounds different than most and I doubt one of the two other guys in your 20,000 sqft space is going to report you if you decide not to wear a mask, but any potential retail employees in the front of the house should be wearing masks, point blank.

but any potential retail employees in the front of the house should be wearing masks, point blank.

There is already an explicit rule that covers them.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

There is already an explicit rule that covers them.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It's a ridiculous requirement to have me wear a seatbelt when there aren't any other cars on the road, which according to the law, I must.

Only if the rule applied also when you ride your motorcycle.
Do you ride a motorcycle with your seat belt?
Do you drive your car with your motorcycle helmet on?

For me, I always ride with my helmet oin when I ride my motorcycle but would never presume to shame someone else for not doing so.

The thing here is that people think all circumstances which apply to them, are the same circumstances that others face.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

to be fair, the car can still kill you whether or not another car is around. Seat belts still have a role when no other car is around.

Masks prevent a person from a- or presymptomatically spreading coronavirus to another when verbally communicating. It requires two people to be in vicinity (and likely speaking loudly or singing).

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Northam did sign up for the top spot in VA, so all heat should rightfully be directed toward him. With that said, he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. Dude has a tough job and has people bitching at him from all sides. Everyone is pretty cooped up and cranky in general right now and shit floats to the top.

I do think we are fortunate to have him as a Governor and he could be doing waaaaay worse. At least he has a medical background, is considerate of the situation, and appears to be looking out for his constituents. I guess we'll see how the data plays out in the coming months.

It is unfortunate that he and his advisers didn't take take the time to carve out an exception for you (and others). Although, had they done that, different people would have cried out because their specific scenario wasn't considered. It's literally impossible for him to address every scenario or for him to make everyone happy, so he might as well go with the option that is the most encompassing. Anyway, what does it matter? People are going to ignore whatever he says anyway. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

I feel like there's plenty of issues with the mask mandate.

1. Law enforcement will not be enforcing it. It will be done by the health department. Yet when directly asked how that is done, neither the governor nor any of the other advisors at the press conference can provide an answer.

2. He teased it last week. If you're going to make a mandate, just do it. Don't be cute and give out "homework". As it stands, the mandate doesn't take effect for a few days, so he could have well just have announced it last week.

3. There's so many loopholes and exceptions and lack of clarity that, well, it's about as useful as a crocheted mask.

it's about as useful as a crocheted mask

This. Right. here.

People lose sight of the fact that the point is to stop transmission of the virus.
Alyssa Milano was virtue signalling with a crocheted mask over the weekend.

I see them in grocery stores.
The point of the masks has changed from protecting from transmission to the point being the wearing of a mask.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The point of the masks has changed from protecting from transmission to the point being the wearing of a mask.

One person's virtue-signalling does not change the reason for wearing a mask, TBH.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

In that case, she is a danger wearing that mask.
Much more so than I am at work, not wearing a mask but she is being held up as a paragon of concern and care and I am being informed I'm selfish and unintelligent.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

And I'll go the other way: Just because some random message board poster says that you're selfish and unintelligent doesn't make it so.

I thought your description of the environment and spacing between personnel was a compelling argument not to have to wear a mask, but I don't get to make policy.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

It would seem backroom processing locations such as a brewery should be excepted.

Store fronts and serving stations probably a good idea.

Also, contract tracing is the best answer still.

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Interesting indeed, but still doesn't explain why we're dumping 1 trillion per month overboard on this. Click on the age breakout. My point still stands. Protect the elderly and we're not at almost 40 million unemployed today.

I'm a broken record by now, though. I'm not going to convince you that the annihilation of the US economy was not necessary this quarter any more than you're going to convince me that it was.

We're all Hokies, and we'll always have that.

Leonard. Duh.

Do you really expect that people would do what is necessary to protect the elderly in a full reopen when they're not even doing that now? I mean, if everybody were wearing masks right now, I'd think that might have a possibility of working. But since they're not, then that plan wouldn't work, and you're looking at 3.3 million deaths (1% of 330 million) at a low-end figure; it would be higher due to hospital overcrowding.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

If only there had been a plan of attack in place to deal with a crisis. One that would have detailed out steps to take, how to address issues, present a unified front with detailed information to the public....if only...

And just because hasty mistakes were made months ago doesn't mean that hasty mistakes now offset them or do away with what occured before.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

My two cents on the Va mask order...
1. It's not going to be enforced.
2. If a business that I really, really want to patronize requires it, I'll wear one. Whatever. We've just got to get back to living.

Leonard. Duh.

If a business that I really, really want to patronize requires it, I'll wear one. Whatever.

Given your well known stance on all of this, I commend you for this. I mean that sincerely.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

If you're going to be around other people in public, wear a mask. It's not hard, and most importantly it's not about you.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Cannot leg this comment enough.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

You've missed a few recently, though. ;^)

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

what can I say? Willie is a lot more SFW that Anne

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Is that why you post Willie? Because you feel that gif of Anne is NSFW? Your message wasn't quite clear on that.

Is this your way of telling me that I shouldn't post this gif?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Sort of but not really. If my boss is walking behind me and sees motion on my screen, I can scroll down a little and he just sees willie (do not google that phrase).

But, no, if I wanted you to stop posting it, I'd be explicit. I don't think it violates CGs or anything and I'd imagine there are many who enjoy it. By all means, keep posting. It's kind of just become a thing to post willie in response.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Your Anne leads to his Willie post

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I'd like comment on your statement.

1) Wear an effective mask. My training is that ineffective safety devices are worse than not wearing/using safety devices at all. They lead to false security and present their own hazards.

Let me present an example. If an individual is not wearing a mask and someone is concerned, they can add some distance or other means to mitigate the concern. If a person is wearing an ineffective mask, a concerned individual may not have the opportunity to sufficiently examine the mask to determine its effectiveness before the safety was breached.

There are fakes out there. I am in the medical industry and was made aware of a friend's practice that had counterfeit N95 masks delivered to their office.

2) Public here is poorly defined. Outside, not in a crowd, on a warm sunny day is a great prescription for going without a mask.
Inside a crowded club, you won't catch me there.

The people I see jogging everyday wearing a mask? That's an accident waiting to happen.
I know its anecdotal but it agrees with my knowledge, training/understanding; my internist friend is expecting a large uptick in people with upper and lower respiratory disorders because so may people are wearing masks constantly and not getting outside into fresh air.
The masks are keeping warm/humid air in the respiratory system and some of the waste excreted through respiration is not being fully expelled. Other viral and bacteriological particles are being reintroduced to the lungs because they get trapped by these masks and not expelled away.

How often are these crocheted masks getting washed properly.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yes, using your brain is better than not using your brain. Yes, there are specific circumstances where masks are not necessary or proper, and we're all extremely aware here of your specific circumstance.

In general, wear a damn mask in public.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Just a thought...

You don't know everybody's situation. If you are shaming people for not wearing a mask who are otherwise practicing responsible social distancing as prescribed by the experts, you are actually exhibiting the attitude that you imagine they have that you detest.

Leonard. Duh.

What conditions would limit someone from wearing a mask? Unless you have a health reason restricting you, how in the wide world of small asks is wearing a mask an overly cumbersome request? Doesn't limiting the spread of a virus with no proven treatment/vaccine offset any minor inconvenience to you personally?

There's a reason why I said in general. As for the attitude I detest, it's people who refuse to wear a mask because they themselves are not in "high risk" categories. Not because their specific circumstances may eliminate the need for a mask.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

If you're close enough to shame them in person using your 'inside voice,' then they are close enough that they should have a mask on.

Twitter me

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

it's about as useful as a crocheted mask

Wear a damn mask if you can be a danger to others and be respectful of them, knowing you cannot know their circumstances.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yes, and in general almost everyone in a public situation can be a dangers to others with regards to this virus. So in general, wear a mask.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

Apparently Virginia's state of emergency was extended. I don't think that was mentioned during the briefing today, but it was sent out in a press release. I cannot find any documentation about how long it was extended. Originally, it was for 90 days, which is where the June 10 date came from for the stay at home order.

Before the thread goes off the rails with everyone's mask debate, let me remind the community that the main purpose of these threads is informational. The governor has ordered facial coverings in public based on an assessment that the net benefit to the community's health outweighs other concerns. That's pretty much all that's worth saying.

Question.

Can a thong be used as a mask?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I saw a video on facebook addressing that.

I'll just leave it at that.

Well, my daughter's summer camp has been cancelled. She will me massively upset, but what can you do? There are several virtual summer camps that Girl Scouts offers. I can provide info if people want to know about them. Any other ideas folks have for 2 working parents who don't want their 11 year old to be sleeping in till 10:30 and then playing Minecraft all day?

BTW, I'm fine with her staying up late and getting up late and playing a lot of Mindcraft, just not every single day while the wife and I are working.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Sign up for an overnight camp here in North Carolina. They're allowed now, but playgrounds are still closed.

Leonard. Duh.