Alright, football fans. The 2017 season is finally here and it's time for some wild speculation and overanalysis of useless information and exposure of the universal certainty that preseason predictions mean diddly.
Last year, I kept up with ESPN's FPI projections of Virgnia Tech's schedule on a week by week basis to see how the model would change as the perceptions of the Hokies and their opponents changed. While there is no perfect formula for predicting outcomes (cause who wants to let the players decide, right?) and a single source of information is looking at the situation narrowly, it's fun to see the trends anyway. This season I've decided to expand my data collecting expedition as follows. There will be three season-long, week-by-week trends coming from ESPN's FPI predictions, Massey Ratings Matchup simulator, and CFB Analytics predicitons. FPI and Massey are nice enough to give a percent chance of victory for each team, but CFBA will only give an expected spread.
I'll do the update format a little bit differently, too. Rather than a comment with the updated charts, I'll rehost the pictures and maybe add a line of commentary to the body of the forum. The Week on the x-axis will be the data after that week of games. Week 1 was plotted as the same as Week 0 so that it will show up instead of a bunch of dots.
ESPN FPI
Week 12: 8.8 wins from the FPI, steady after the GT letdown and the near Pitt-fall. Interesting that FPI has the UVA game at a better Tech chance than preseason.
Massey Predicitons
Week 12: Massey is at 8.9 expected wins and, as was seen throughout the season, the UVA game has had a relatively stable curve from week to week.
CFB Analytics
Week 12: A cool 7.8 point spread in favor of the Hokies this weekend. What I found interesting about the GT spread was that it was locked to 26.8-26.8 pregame. Tech lost 28-22 while leaving 5 easy points on the board. Pretty eerie there.
Bill Connely - S&P+
Week 12: 8.6 wins from Bill, and he's had the UVA game trending down all season long. I'm a little scared here.
Discuss amongst yourselves. Or don't.
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