After each season, Bill Connelly tweaks his SP+ system to make it better at predicting outcomes. Since the regular season has ended, he created a 'weighted' systems that values the 8 most recent games more than the earlier games (still in beta):
tl;dr: I've created a Weighted SP+ that does about the same as SP+ predictively but acknowledges that teams get better/worse and passes the eye test perhaps a bit better. Here's what 2019's current Weighted SP+ looks like at the moment: pic.twitter.com/keD50DvOrR— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 20, 2019
This is especially interesting for VT - at this point in the season, 8 games have been played since Duke - meaning that, conveniently, this new system gives more weight to the games HH started, and games that our defense stepped up. According to the 'standard' week 14 SP+ rankings, VT was 41st overall, 59th on offense, 38th on defense, and 40th in special teams after week 14. However, the new 'weighted' SP+ rankings (again, still in beta) put us at 24th overall (Bill C has not posted offensive/defensive/special teams break down yet).