Ask TKP: O/U 8 Regular Season Wins for the Hokies?

Caesars set Virginia Tech's win total at eight. Are you going over or under for the Hokies? Push against your honor.

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Over. I believe we're more likely to figure some things out with an easy schedule and hit 9 wins than continue to fall apart and win 7.

Over. Give me 10 on the season.

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Over. If we don't hit the over..........I will be...........sad.... for the death of something (good Tech football) that has been a large part of my adult life.

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Over. You gotta put it out into the universe if you want it to happen

Over. Beating Miami will prove to be the difference maker.

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about turkey leg votes

Over because if it isn't the calls for Fuente's job will be deafening. A 7 win or few season will cause the fan base to turn on Fuente and I can't see him recovering from that.

Over. Give me ten wins. Willis improves in his second season with basically the same receivers and a moderately improved run game. If Bud fields a competent defense ten wins SHOULD be quite achievable.

Over, nine wins at least.

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Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

The fact they they are giving us the 3rd highest O/U in the conference means that we're not playing any really good teams in-conference. And jeebus, look at Clemson's O/U at 11 1/2!

Since I'm not allowed to take a push, I'm taking the under here. Too many things have to go right for us to win 9 (and 10 wins for this young a team with obvious holes is delusional IMO). And there are lots of things that could go wrong (injuries at QB and on the D Line, for example) and send us to 7 wins or less.

The doll's trying to kill me and the toaster's been laughing at me.

Too many things have to go right for us to win 9

I would like to know what those things are.

Beating BC - ODU - Furman - Duke - RI - UNC - WF - GT - Pitt should be wins without much question. That puts us at 9.

Given the annual W against LOLUVA puts us at 10.

And I'm not saying we will, but I can see us beating Miami. That would put us at 11.

I don't think we will win 11 games, but if we go 8 or under with this schedule, Fuente's seat should be on fire.

Is it basketball season yet?

I would like to know what those things are.

1) We need to avoid major injuries. This isn't 2004 Virginia Tech. We don't have the depth to absorb a rash of injuries, and any long-term injuries at certain positions (QB, O Line, DE, DT) would be devastating.

2) Our defense will need to make a MAJOR improvement. If we move up 20 spots nationally in total D (we were 98th in total defense in 2018), we'll still be awful.

3) We'll need to beat a bunch of teams that we lost to last year. Of the 9 teams that you say "should be wins without much question," we lost to 4 of them last year (BC, ODU, GT, Pitt).

4) We'll need to have several breakout players. VT is pretty scarce on the pre-season All-ACC teams, and we'll need to be better represented on the post-season All-ACC team. We had several players do this last year (Ryan Willis, Tre Turner, Dax Hollifield), so this is a reasonable goal. But it's also a total necessity.

5) We need to keep our players in the program. Losing players right before the season, or during the season, kills our depth and can't be good for team morale.

So yeah, we have a lot of work to do to win 9 games. It ain't gonna happen just because we have VT on our helmets. The talent gap between us and the middle-of-the-pack ACC teams is basically gone, and those teams are trying to win games too.

The doll's trying to kill me and the toaster's been laughing at me.

To your point:

1) This is the case for every team ever year in all of the NCAA with the exception of Clemson and Alabama.

2) The D will be better. I think the Nix - Hamilton switch will pay huge dividends (for a number of reasons). We also have quality starts all across the board on D. I expect the D to be a top 25 D with the soft schedule we have.

3) All of the teams you mentioned have many more question marks than VT does. BC, GT, and Pitt (I know nothing of ODU and their schedule) will all be struggling to have winning records by seasons end.

4) I'm not worried about pre-season player hype. But I don't happen to think, with the horrible schedule, that it will be necessary to have a ton of All-ACC players on this years squad.

5) I think this has been taken care of.

VT is a talented team. Based on the last couple of recruiting cycles, this is as talented a team as we've had in quite a while (with the exception of the DT spot). Outside of Miami, there isn't a team in the Coastal division that has the talent of VT. If 9, wins with the schedule we have, will take a lot of work, then I'm wondering if Fuente is the guy for the job.... really.

Is it basketball season yet?

I think your expectations are right, but maybe just a year off. The talent is potentially there, but it's still going to be a young and unproven team in 2019. And I would say:

1) Most top-10 teams have enough depth on their roster to play at a high level even with injuries. Teams like Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Florida, Texas have multiple P5 level players at most positions. And of course Alabama and Clemson.

2) I don't think it's reasonable to expect the defense to jump from 98 to 25. Maybe by 2020, but not this year.

3) They all beat us last year. So I'm not considering any of them expected wins.

4) The all-conference team is not about hype. It's about players who dominate in conference games. That's going to probably define our overall season.

5) I certainly fucking hope so.

The doll's trying to kill me and the toaster's been laughing at me.

The issue with all conference teams is they leave off a player like Tre Turner despite him making the post season all conference teams?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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I couldn't disagree more with your last paragraph. We have names. We have yet to see all of this "talent" produce in games. Tre Turner, Dax, Hazelton- sure. That's 3 and Dax struggled a bit at times too. Farley? He was lost last year. any of the young RBs? Haven't seen it. Patterson? 2 years away. Rivers/Garbutt? Struggled big time. Porcher? Cant get on the field. I could go on. I know TSL is touting this bogus "11 of the top 50 recruits ever are on the roster now" nonsense, but that list includes Joel Caleb and doesn't include Jack Tyler.. so yeah, lets see these guys win some games.

ODU lost a lot, those big receivers, #7 and #9, that big RB, the QB left. They still have that QB that played against us 2 years ago that was the youngest starting QB ever is still there.

ODU was horrible LAST YEAR... "big" players or not. I don't care who they lost, they shouldn't have been on the field with VT last year. they got destroyed by CUSA teams- who cares about ODU's roster? Their roster wasn't any good last year either.

My heart wants to say take the over, but my head is telling me under for now. We do have an easy schedule and should be much improved. But there are still some big question marks for me heading into the season. I think Willis will be really good this year, but can we give him a consistent running game to take the pressure off? Who is going to step up at RB? Loads of questions on D too. Lots of JUCOs and freshmen expected to be in the mix on the DL, and very suspect depth at CB.

Right off the bat, I see ND, Miami, and throw in an annual head scratcher as games we likely don't win. I'm really nervous about on the road vs BC week one. Their rushing game is going to be a major test for the defense early on. We should finally get one against GT this year with their total overhaul, but Pitt makes me very nervous. UVA will be good as well, and if we aren't in a good place mentally at the end of the year, that could be a tough game.

We should exceed 8, but I'm still too nervous.

With that schedule? Over

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Easy over. I dont gamble, but these odds are spot on for pretty much every team. Clemson then everyone else, with Miami having more overall talent. UVA has a dynamic QB to compete, FSU has potential to win more but has to block somebody, everyone else us either in rebuilding mode/new coaches. BC and Cuse are teams I could see amongst the rest to take the over on.

Over. If you will it, it is no dream

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

Wouldn't it be wild if the team came together and balled out making them one of the surprise teams to be in playoff contention. Then Foster pulls a Costanza and exits on a high note...

Betting the over at 8 is the right play. Chances are we win 8 or 9 games this year

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I would take the over. I can see the offense really stepping up with quality QB play and a ton of surrounding weapons. It should be enough to carry the team to 8 even if the defense is only marginally better.

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I thought TheFifthFuller was the burner account.

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If you see these characters, they represent specific people (as of Oct. 2):

Palpatine (Fuente) || Vader (Hooker) || Kylo Ren (QP4) || Lando (Deablo)

If we don't win 8+ we need to absolutely clean house

Fucking better be over.

Screw honor. I'm going push. 8 wins. And it'll be a frustrating push, the kind where a couple of bounces/fluke plays/Mike London type clock management not going our way could easily put it at 6 wins. A win is a win, but at the end of the season, no one will feel good about it yet you can't really do anything either. So at the end of it, we'll be stuck in limbo not really knowing if the program heading in the right direction or not. Truth hurts. So just go chug a bunch of brews, enjoy the 4th, and forget you ever read this post.

Life's too short to bet the under.

Gotta go with the over and think worst case scenario is a push at 8. I just think think this team is at least 3 wins better than a team that on top of playing poorly, had literally everything go against them and still got 6 wins.

Gobble Till You Wobble

Over. And as has already been mentioned, if we don't hit the over, especially with this cake schedule, Fuente's seat needs to be piping hot.

I hope that this coaching staff is competent enough to win in the ACC. Though I haven't been convinced yet they still get one more shot to prove it to me. And if they are at that level then this roster and schedule combination should yield 10 wins. Certainly, if they fail to win 8 or more they will have failed to prove themselves worthy of coaching in the P5, IMO.

9+ wins is a good sign for me. Anything less spells a bleak future to me

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

Over the line! (is my response to your comment as well as the discussion topic in general)

Probably going to give up football and look into all these other sports that UVA touts all the time if we can't hit the over.

Over. 9 wins, but one of the three losses is close and could have gone either way.

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Over. 9 wins.

Is it sad that I'd be extremely excited for a 9 win season? I remember 8 straight (I think?) seasons where a 9 win season would indicate regression. Sad or not, I think 9 wins and three competitive losses, and a bowl victory would be enough to get some positive momentum and vibes in the program and also get Hokie Nation to calm their tits a bit...


Furman: W
Duke: W
Miami: L
Rhode Island: W
Wake: W
Pitt: L

Those 8 straight included post season though did they not? 9 regular season wins is nothing to laugh at.

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about turkey leg votes

Good point. I believe you are right. And I agree.

I know its Pitt, but they lost a ton of production off of last years team. I see them struggling to have a winning record this season.

Is it basketball season yet?

Furman: W
Duke: W
Miami: L
Rhode Island: W
Wake: W
Pitt: L

6-6, Fuente gets 1 more year and then we completely clean house.

GT: exists

Justin Fuente: "Let this be a lesson to you, nobody beats Justin Fuente 4 times in a row."

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It would be 4 in a row if Johnson was still there.

Furman: W
Duke: W
Miami: L
Rhode Island: W
Wake: W
Pitt: W
ACC Championship (Clemson): L
NY6: too early to tell

1-0 every week

Let's just do better than last season (PLEASE!). 8-9

Over. Easy money, barring catastrophic injuries.

And is Louisville really that bad? Sheesh.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

8 wins on the season, bowl makes it 9


Haaaaard over. 10-2, 11-1 if things go well

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Must wins - ODU, Furman, RI, Duke, WF, GT, UNC, lolVA (8)
Close games - BC, Pitt, Miami (3)
Probable loss - ND (1)

With this schedule if we have under 9 wins I won't be happy about it.

Over - 9. I think we will win a game or two we probably shouldn't (I.e ND or Miami) as we do have talent. We will probably have an infuriating loss or two. I do expect us to be in the mix for the coastal by season's end.

The team is going under like the goddamn Titanic.


Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Thanks. I had never heard of the Titanic or its story before. Appreciate the quick way to get up to speed.

7LoP doing his reverse psychology on the universe...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Hope it works.

I think this team is somewhere from 6-7 to 8-5, so I guess I'll take the under. My real guess is 8-5 though with a bowl loss, or 8-6 if we win Coastal Chaos.

My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes.

If you see these characters, they represent specific people (as of Oct. 2):

Palpatine (Fuente) || Vader (Hooker) || Kylo Ren (QP4) || Lando (Deablo)

I plan on putting money on the over (mostly out of blind optimism) but I honestly think it's a push.

Recruit Prosim

Getting + money on BC over 6.5 wins is a dart I'm willing to throw. 3 yr starter returning at QB and AJ Dillon being who he is, I think they've got a great chance to get 7 wins.

So long as they lose their first game, they are welcome to rip off 11 in a row afterwards.

I'm just here to sling some legs

BCs finish is tough.


Get your wins early.

Losses: ND, Pitt, Miami... the auto loss to Paul Johnson is gone, so that helps. I put UVA and BC as toss ups... Vegas knows what they are doing.

I'll bet any amount that we win at least one of those 3 games you picked as a guaranteed loss. College football is Very mercurial and it never turns out as perfect as the preseason looks. The question really is who sneaks up on us to do they?

9-3. Blow out loss to ND, close loss in Miami, and a very frustrating loss to Wake.

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and a very frustrating loss to Wake.

This frustrating?

Nope, not that frustrating. More like Cincinnati bowl game frustrating.

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given our schedule, it really needs to be over

if its under, there are some losses that are going to be difficult to explain/accept. Given the way the last couple of seasons have gone, Fuente really needs to hit the over here.

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Last year was full of freshmen and few returning starters. Saw some guys really figure it out.
Dax as a defensive morale leader, I think we find some enthusiasm and motivation in the guys to really find it this year.
So much production returning.
As long as we don't lose guys to injuries or legal troubles, I think we get over with no difficulty.

How many starters graduate this year? If we keep as many as I think we do, next year should be fun.


This is going to be great for the ACC.

Next year (2020 season) should be strong in the skill positions, o-line and defensive back seven, with the two huge questions being the d-line and especially the likely first year starter at QB. Lots of options, but little experience.

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the likely first year starter at QB?

You mean Willis? If so, this will practically be Year 2 for him as a starter. He should be alright as long as he doesn't try to be Superman out there and plays within himself. He gets in trouble when he tries to make something out of nothing.

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He said next year.

We put the K in Kwality

The team as constructed today with today's players will win 9 games. But injuries at a lot of key positions with lack of depth could change that ina hurry.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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In Beamers last few years we had a lot of games derailed by injuries. I think unless you are the Clemson's and Bama's of the world that injury prevention should be your number one goal as a coach. Get a good training staff.

We have the offense, I think to do get the over if our defense is on par with our historic norms on that side of the bar. However, I'm still concerned about both the talent level and depth on defense.

The D line and Secondary, even though they now have game experience, are still behind the curve at least in my opinion. If our defense isn't remarkably better than last year, and if our offense doesn't put up gaudy numbers then we are back to a 6-6 or 7-5 season.

My expert analysis - If we can consistently score more points than our opponents, we will win more than 8 games.


Using Bill Connelly's S&P+ Rankings

Opponent Win Probability
AT BC 67%
ODU 96%
Furman 97%
Duke 72%
AT Miami 37%
RI 98%
UNC 72%
AT ND 26%
Wake 72%
AT GT 75%
Pitt 70%
AT UVA 51%

He has us at 10-2 with our only losses coming at Miami and Notre Dame. I'd be shocked if we flip either of those into wins.

I'm worried about BC, as I have concerns about AJ Dillon going wild against us in Chestnut Hill. It seems like the defense will be markedly improved because they couldn't possibly be worse, but I don't imagine we're going to see a classic Bud Foster squad this year either.

I also wish we weren't playing in Charlottesville after last year's escape. I think a lot of people on here are overlooking UVA simply because it's UVA and I'll be freebasing antacids most of that week.

I'd say over, because under would be a terrible year with this cupcake of a schedule. I hope that a decent year helps spur some momentum in the recruiting game. I do have concerns, as someone who isn't sold on Fuente, that a ~10 win season will effectively be smoke and mirrors and if Fu isn't the right guy it may just delay the inevitable.

Hokies United l Ut Prosim

Best case scenario on facing BC is that first game. Our defense will at the very least be the healthiest and freshest they will likely be all season.

But will they be any good?

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I hope we are in the over. But I don't discount anybody on the schedule. For a lot of those easy win teams people are thinking of, we are their superbowl. They want to upset us.

Under, loses to BC, Miami, GiT, ND an our annual lose to the team we have no business loosing too.

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Over, but not by much, give me 9 wins.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

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