ACC Wheel of Destiny 2019

It's only the first weekend of October and we are just about at peak Wheel of Destiny spinning. Folks, the Coastal outline is probably going to make you sad.

Two disclaimers:
-Any W/L records in this post are conference records only.
-UNC/WF game wasn't a conference game.

Atlantic:
Clemson (3-0), Wake Forest (1-0), and FSU (2-1) all control their destiny. FSU's conference loss was to UVA.
Louisville (1-1) and NC State (0-1) just need one FSU loss to get back in the race.
Syracuse (0-1) needs two Clemson losses.
BC (1-2) has the longest shot, needing 3 losses by WF, 2 losses by Louisville, and an extra Clemson loss.

Coastal:
Of all teams, UVA (2-0) and UNC (2-1) still control their destiny. UNC's loss was to Clemson.
Pitt (1-1) needs two UVA losses.
Duke (1-1) needs a Pitt loss.
VT (1-2) needs two Duke losses plus an extra UVA loss.
GT (0-2) needs two UNC losses plus an extra UVA loss.
Miami (0-2) needs two UNC losses, a VT loss, and an extra UVA loss.

The only Coastal conference games this week: UVA at Miami on Friday, GT at Duke on Saturday.

These scenarios are just what each team needs to get control of their destiny and does not take any tiebreakers into account other than just head-to-head. I see there being a lot of twisty Coastal scenarios being in play come November.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

So, basically, what I'm gathering from your detailed analysis is that UVA needs to lose.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Well, that's true every week.

AND Carolina. AND Duke.

UNC is facing BYE this week. Not sure which way that bodes.

I was thinking in general, not just this week. Coastal teams who have just a little too much control over their destiny at this point.

The beautiful part is that we're UNC's next game. If we win on the 19th, then both are 2-2, and VT would have the tiebreaker.

Most of the Coastal will be rooting for Miami and GT to win this week. Pitt, VT, and GT have a vested interest in UVA losing, and VT also has an interest in Duke losing. The rest of the teams would just be looking for extra breathing room.

The coastal is so bad and pretty even this year that there will be a lit of cheering for upsets every week.

My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes.

If you see these characters, they represent specific people (as of Oct. 2):

Palpatine (Fuente) || Vader (Hooker) || Kylo Ren (QP4) || Lando (Deablo)

24 hours ago it was debate over who the new coach will be.

Now it's paths to the ACC Championship.

Aren't message boards great?

First Choice: We win out.
Second Choice: We win the Coastal with a seven-way tie at 4-4.

"Vick, dashing back . . . here he comes again . . . Electrifying . . . and have you ever seen anything like this?"

If Georgia Tech was just a little better I'd say this season actually had a legitimate chance to end in the mythical 4-4 7 way tie.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Speaking of the ACC Costal wheel of destiny. Assuming we won't beat ND, our remaining ACC slate will determine our bowl eligibility. We have UNC, Wake, GT, Pitt, and UVA to find three more wins to get to the 7 we need because of two FCS games. Where do y'all think they will come from this group? GT should be a win, but the rest of these games could go either way, frankly.

I still think we have a shot against UVA for two reasons:

1.) In 15 years, they haven't given me any reasons to think otherwise.
2.) The last two years when UVA went to bowls, they nosedived after they got to 6 wins.

2018 - Followed a 6-2 start with a 1-3 November.
2017 - Followed a 5-1 start with a 1-5 finish.

I would prefer bowl eligibility to not be hanging over us on Black Friday, though.

Not to mention Perkins has been pretty loose with the ball, and their offensive line hasn't been that good. Same circumstances with Miami yesterday, and we saw how that went. It's a decent matchup for us as long as we don't let Perkins run.

Marshall University student.
Virginia Tech fanatic.

We're going to el Paso, y'all!

Sadly, the latest projections from ESPN showed both guys picking us and Arizona State to go to the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl.

But I have often noticed how those guys kind of suck at making bowl projections, even in late November when there are fewer variables.

Doesn't really matter much for us I don't think. We will for sure lose at the very least one more ACC game. Probably more like 2.

Correct.

But in an ideal world, so will all of them, and hopefully one of those is against us. And I'm pulling for anyone vs Duke, with the exception of UVa.

@hokie_rd

Disney Hokies for 400 Alex

GIF clue, this is the ACC Coastal Division Wheel of Destiny

What is a tale as old as time?

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

@hokie_rd

I feel so dirty that I'll have to root for Miami on Friday.

Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in bad humor.

I'll have no problem at all reconciling that.

Regardless, lets go MIAMI. Get that W Friday!

Friday night Coastal update: (thanks to Miami)

Even with the loss, UVA (2-1) still controls their destiny, but they lost their cushion.
UNC (2-1) also controls their destiny.
Pitt (1-1) needs one UVA loss.
Duke (1-1) needs a Pitt loss.
VT (1-2) needs two Duke losses.
GT (0-2) needs two UNC losses.
Miami (1-2) needs two UNC losses and a VT loss.

After Thursday's game, the Atlantic remains mostly the same, except that Syracuse is in a similar bottom feeding position as BC. They need 3 Clemson losses, two NC State losses, and an extra WF loss. NC State held their ground, and still needs a FSU loss to gain control.

Final Coastal update after week 7:

UVA (2-1) and UNC (2-1) control their destiny.
Pitt (1-1) needs a UVA loss.
Duke (2-1) needs a Pitt loss.
VT (1-2) needs two Duke losses.
Miami (1-2) needs two UNC losses, a VT loss, and an extra UVA loss.*
GT (0-3) needs 3 Duke losses, 3 UNC losses, and extra losses by UVA and Pitt.

*I mistakenly took the extra UVA loss off of Miami after Friday's game. Miami still needs UVA to lose another game for the head-to-head tiebreaker to come into play.

Rooting interests in week 8:

Pitt at Syracuse (Friday) - Duke and GT are rooting for Syracuse. Everyone else probably is too just to give themselves breathing room.
GT at Miami - doesn't matter either way for anyone.
UNC at VT - Miami gets help regardless of the outcome. GT is rooting for VT.
Duke at UVA - This is the big game in the division, as it affects the chances of every team in the division except UNC. GT gets help either way. Pitt and Miami are looking for Duke to win. Ironically, VT is the only team with a strong vested interest in Duke losing.

Thanks for updating.
so..... I'm supposed to hope uva beats duke?!

There must be another way.

There's a lot of loseable games left on Duke's schedule. Wake, UNC, and Miami I imagine to be competitive games.

... So the ACC is bad at football 仄踱儭

And the Atlantic update:

Clemson (4-0), Louisville (2-1), and NC State (1-1) control their destiny.
Wake Forest (1-1) needs a Louisville loss.
FSU (2-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, a Louisville loss, and a NC State loss.
Syracuse (0-2) needs 3 Clemson losses and 2 NC State losses.
BC (1-2) needs 2 losses by WF, 2 losses by Louisville, and an extra Clemson loss.

Basically two games for division leads next week: Clemson at Louisville, followed by Duke at UVA.

But it's also a prime weekend for the Wheel of Destiny to land on total #goacc action.

Week 8 Coastal Chaos Update:

UVA (3-1) still controls their destiny.
Pitt (2-1) needs a UVA loss.
Duke (2-2) needs 2 Pitt losses and 2 UVA losses.
VT (2-2) needs a Duke loss.
UNC (2-2) needs a VT loss.
GT (1-3) needs 2 Duke losses, 2 UNC losses, and extra losses by UVA and Pitt.
Miami (1-3) needs 2 UNC losses, 2 VT losses, 2 UVA losses, a GT loss, an extra Pitt loss.

This might be the craziest I've seen. We literally have a wheel of destiny going on with all of the teams that need someone else to lose.

Next week's Coastal games:
-Miami at Pitt - a Miami win most benefits Duke, but pretty much makes life easier for everyone else.
-UVA at Louisville - everyone's pulling for Louisville
-Duke at UNC - a Duke loss most benefits VT. Pretty much a toss up for everyone else.

Let's say hypothetically we win out, UVA only loses one more (to us), and Duke wins out. All three teams are tied at 6-2. Wouldn't we then win the three-way tiebreaker because of best record in the division? We would be 5-1 in the division since our other conference loss was to BC, UVA and Duke with two losses each and both in the division.

Yes, first tiebreaker of head to head among the group would have all three teams at 1-1 against each other, then it drops to division record. VT would be 5-1, the others 4-2. VT goes to Charlotte.

But . . .

There's still a wrinkle of a possible 6-2 Pitt in that scenario. Currently sitting at 1 loss, they could win out except for the VT game. In a 4 way tie (VT/UVA/Duke/Pitt), the record against the group would be VT 2-1, UVA 2-1, Pitt 1-2, Duke 1-2. Then it comes down to the head to head we get in the Commonwealth Cup. So, VT still goes to Charlotte.

VT still doesn't control their destiny outright, because if UVA or Pitt drop to 3 or more losses, VT could end up in a two way tie with Duke, which Duke would win.

Oh, and this happened . . .

yay!

Seriously, take Clemson out, and the Atlantic is just as messed up as the Coastal, if not more.

Clemson (5-0) and Wake Forest (2-1) control their destiny.

Louisville (2-2) needs Clemson to lose out and WF to lose 1 to regain control.
BC (2-2) needs 2 losses by WF, 1 loss by Louisville, and an extra Clemson loss.
NC State (1-2) needs a BC loss and an extra Clemson loss.

Any of the 2 loss teams will be eliminated with a loss AND a Clemson win.

FSU (2-3) and Syracuse (0-3) are both out of control, because their best record would only tie Clemson (who already has the tiebreakers). Both will be eliminated with a loss OR a Clemson win. Interestingly enough, they play each other next.

Key games in week 9:
-Syracuse at FSU: Loser is out. Winner is out if Clemson wins. No one else in the conference cares about this one.
-UVA at Louisville: A Louisville win is more beneficial to the conference on both sides.
-BC at Clemson: A Clemson win would officially knock out BC, FSU, Syracuse, and Louisville if they lose.

Now, if you want an Atlantic circle of suck, then you're rooting for BC and Syracuse. I don't know if that will actually create the circle, but until Clemson loses and Syracuse wins, there's no possibility of a circle.

Week 9 Coastal Chaos:

UVA (3-2) and VT (2-2) control their own destiny.
Pitt (2-2) needs a UVA loss.
UNC (3-2) needs a VT loss.
Duke (2-3) needs 2 Pitt losses, 2 UVA losses, and a VT loss.
GT (1-3) needs a Duke loss and 2 UNC losses.
Miami (2-3) needs 2 UNC losses, 2 VT losses, 2 UVA losses, and a GT loss.

EDIT - I originally had Pitt controlling their own destiny because they got the UVA loss they needed. However, I forgot to account for Pitt's own loss, which still puts them in a tie with UVA, who beat them in week 1.

It looks like VT could loss to Wake and still go to the ACCCG as long as Duke and UNC loss a conference game.

UNC conference games remaining: UVA, @Pitt, @NC state

Duke conference games remaining: Cuse, @Wake, Maimi

Losing to GT would create a similar scenario, but VT would also need GT to lose.

The first team to be eliminated from ACC title contention in 2019 is:

Syracuse.

With 4 losses, the Orange will always be behind Clemson's 5 wins.

They can cry in their cursed dome.

Week 9 Atlantic update:

At the top, Clemson (6-0) and Wake Forest (2-1) control their own destiny.

At the bottom, since Clemson's worst possible record is 6-2, Syracuse (0-4), FSU (3-3), and BC (2-3) are eliminated.

In the middle . . . that's a bit more complex.

NC State (1-2) has a little bit of life. They need to win out and have Clemson lose out (which is easier than it sounds as they have yet to play each other). In that scenario, both would be 6-2 and WF would be 6-2 at best, with Louisville being 5-3 at best. NC State would have tiebreakers over both Clemson and Wake, so it wouldn't matter how many teams are in the tie. They are eliminated with a loss OR Clemson win.

Louisville (3-2) might already be eliminated, but it requires going down to the third tiebreaker and there's a lot of variables still in play. Basically, Louisville needs Clemson to lose out to force a tie at 6-2. Since Clemson has the head-to-head, Louisville needs another team in the tie. NC State cannot be part of that tie, as the scenario requires Louisville to beat them, dropping them down to a 3 loss team at best. The only multi-way tie possible is Louisville/Clemson/Wake at 6-2. Wake would need to win out except for NC State or Syracuse. That would put all three teams at 1-1 against each other, and 4-2 in the division. It goes to the next tiebreaker, and it's too early in the season and too late at night for me to try to figure that one out.

In short, Louisville needs to win out, Clemson to lose out, and Wake Forest's only loss to come from NC State or Syracuse, and even that might not be enough. They are definitely eliminated with a loss OR Clemson win.

Key games in week 10:
-Clemson steps out of conference, so they can't clinch yet.
-NC State at Wake Forest: NC State is eliminated with a loss.

What's at stake in week 10:

NC State at Wake Forest: NC State is eliminated with a loss.
BC at Syracuse: nothing, not even bowl eligibility or ineligibility.
VT at ND: both teams playing for their 6th win, although VT needs 7.
Miami at FSU: the only thing affected here is the Coastal's chance for the 7 way 4-4 tie.
Wofford at Clemson: If Clemson loses this one, they'll be on the outside looking in if there are more than 4 teams with 1 or 0 losses.
Pitt at GT and UVA at UNC: both present a possibility of a logjam in the Coastal. Wins by GT and UNC would put VT in sole possession of 1st place.

Wins by GT and UNC would put VT in sole possession of 1st tied for 2nd place

FTFY. UNC would be 4-2, we'd be 2-2, UVA would be effectively tied with us at 3-3, and everyone else would be 2-3 or worse. If UVA beat UNC instead it would be the same except swap the two schools.

In terms of the loss column, however, we would be in good shape since we've already beaten UNC and everyone else would have more losses.

I guess I look at the standings a bit differently. GT and UNC wins would leave VT as the only team controlling their own destiny.

For example, NC State is second from the bottom in the Atlantic, but two teams above them have already been mathematically eliminated.

Week 10 Atlantic update:

Easy to do this one early because of teams on byes or playing out of conference.

At the top, Clemson (6-0) and Wake Forest (3-1) control their own destiny.

Clemson can clinch the division next week with a win AND a Wake Forest loss.

Louisville (3-2) might still be alive, but highly unlikely. Short version is that they need Clemson to lose out and WF to win out except losing to Syracuse, and hope that the next level of tiebreakers goes their way.

Syracuse (0-5), NC State (1-3), FSU (3-4), and BC (3-3) are eliminated.

Doesn't VT and UVA also control their own destiny?

Oh, I see this was just Atlantic. My bad.

Week 10 Coastal update:

UVA (4-2) and VT (2-2) control their own destiny.
Pitt (3-2) needs a UVA loss.
UNC (3-3) needs 2 VT losses and 2 UVA losses.
Duke (2-3) needs 2 Pitt losses, 2 UVA losses, a UNC loss, and a VT loss.
Miami (3-3) needs a UNC loss, 2 VT losses, a UVA loss, and a Pitt loss. They will be eliminated with a loss AND a UVA win.
GT (1-4) needs 2 Duke losses, 2 UNC losses, 3 Pitt losses, and extra losses by VT and UVA. They will be eliminated with a loss.

What we're looking at in week 11:
GT at UVA:
-a GT loss would eliminate any chance of the 7 way tie.
-A UVA win would also set up any 3 loss team to be 1 loss away from elimination.

WF at VT:
-a WF loss would officially eliminate Louisville, and sets Clemson up to clinch with a win in primetime.
-A VT loss would knock us out of control of our destiny, but it would not be a crippling blow. Mainly, we'd be back to worrying about Duke.

Louisville at Miami:
-Louisville is eliminated with a loss.
-Miami is eliminated with a loss and UVA win.

Clemson at NC State:
-Clemson can clinch the Atlantic with a win if we beat WF.

The UNC loss means if we lose to Wake, but win out, we would win a 3 way tie between UNC/Pitt, UVA, and Miami/Duke.

Edit: 4 way tie, we would be 2-1 head to head, or 3-0, depending on Miami/Duke.

If we lose to Pitt, but beat Wake, then we would need to have Miami beat Duke.

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

I think Miami will beat Duke.

If we lose to Wake but win the rest, there remains a chance for a 2-way tie with Duke, which Duke would obviously win. Otherwise, we win every other possible scenario, given those conditions.

Week 11 update:

Clemson (7-0) clinched the Atlantic with the best record. Everyone else has at least 2 conference losses.

Over in the Coastal . . .

Due to the schedule quirks this year, both UVA and Miami only have one conference game left, and both are on Thanksgiving weekend. That means the division cannot be clinched until the final weekend of the season.

UVA (5-2) and VT (3-2) control their own destiny. UVA only has one more conference game.

Pitt (3-2) needs to win out and get a UVA loss.

Miami (4-3) only has one conference game left (against Duke on 11/30). Best case scenario for them would involve a tie with UVA (but they own the head-to-head). They come out on the losing side of any tie involving VT. I think they only can take the division if there is a Miami/UVA or Miami/UVA/Pitt tie.

UNC (3-3) and Duke (2-3) come out on the wrong side of every single tiebreaker in any combination of 3-loss teams. UVA would have to be included in all of those tie scenarios. Duke and Miami cannot both be involved in a tie, as they have yet to play and the loser would have at least 4 losses.

GT (1-5) has the easiest scenario. They lost too many games, so they're out.

It might still be possible for Pitt to win with a loss to BC. There exists the possibility for a 3-way tie between Pitt, VT, and UVA that is only broken by the nebulous "Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics". Details here.

Yeah, I figured there was probably another way, but I had already done plenty of mental gymnastics.

I'm not liking the disparity in the schedule where some teams only have 1 game left, and some have up to 3.

No matter how things go, the Commonwealth Cup will play a role in determining the Coastal champ.

There's no way around the fact that UVA clinches the division with a win. No matter what records any team has going into that game, a UVA win would put them at 6-2, best record in the division, no tiebreakers needed. The one exception would be if Pitt wins out, and both would be 6-2, but UVA has the head-to-head.

If VT beats GT and Pitt, then the game will be a winner-take-all, as both teams come into the game at 5-2 with everyone else having 3 or more losses. Therefore, the winner will be 6-2, best record in the division, no tiebreakers needed.

If VT beats Pitt but loses to GT, they come into the game at 4-3. VT winning that game would create a tie involving UVA and possibly any combination of Miami, Pitt, UNC, and Duke at 5-3. VT would have tiebreakers over everyone else (division record over Duke, head to head over everyone else). Also note that Miami and Duke both cannot be part of the same tie, as they play each other at the end of the season. Effectively, I believe this would still allow the Cup to be winner-take-all.

If VT beats GT but loses to Pitt, they come into the game at 4-3. If Pitt wins out, then a VT win would send Pitt to Charlotte (they would have the 6-2 best record). Beyond that, we have a lot of other games coming into play. There is a possibility of a UVA/VT/UNC/Pitt/Duke tie going to UVA.

If VT loses to GT and Pitt, they are out of contention. However, there are still several scenarios where UVA can clinch the division with a loss.

I want the Hokies to stomp GT, have Fuente get rid of some 0-3 record demons on them to get some confidence heading into Pitt. Then we get our final win at Our Home away from Home, Scott Stadium.

Pour some Beer on it

With yesterday's loss, Georgia Tech was eliminated from bowl eligibility.

Georgia Tech has nothing left to play for except to be a spoiler.

This, my friends, has all the makings of a trap game.

In Fuente's press conference, he mentioned being 0-3 against GT as well as coming to Blacksburg and manhandling us last year.

GT should not, and IMO, is not a trap game. Fuente seems like he wants to finally beat those dudes, so I don't see him looking forward to Pitt.

VT Marketing Class of 2009
Current Roanoke-Hokie
Go Hokies!

After the way Georgia Tech and Pitt embarrassed these kids last year, i really don't think you'll have to worry about them finding any motivation. I know it's a new coach and system, but i wouldn't be surprised is they made them watch the film from last year's game just to get the point across that the next 2 weeks are revenge weeks.

Gobble Till You Wobble

The 7 way tie is off the board thanks to GT losing. The 6 way tie is also off the board as Duke and Miami cannot both be in the same tie.

There are two options for a 5 way tie:
VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Duke OR VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Miami

Both are set up by:
-UNC winning out.
-Pitt losing to UNC, but beating VT and BC.
-VT losing to Pitt, but beating GT and UVA.

Then it comes down to Duke's schedule.

VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Duke
Set up by Duke winning out.
Among the group, UVA would be 3-1, Duke would be 1-3, and everyone else is 2-2. UVA wins.

VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Miami
Set up by Miami beating Duke.
Among the group, VT would be 3-1, Pitt would be 1-3, and everyone else is 2-2. VT wins.

Now, as long as UNC beats Pitt, then their game against NC State doesn't matter.

VT/UVA/Pitt/Duke
UVA and Pitt are 2-1, VT and Duke are 1-2, UVA has head-to-head over Pitt.

VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami
VT and Miami are 2-1, UVA and Pitt are 1-2. VT has head-to-head over Miami.

I said all that to say that if those outcomes happen, then the Miami/Duke game on 11/30 will determine the Coastal winner. A Miami win would send VT to Charlotte, while a Duke win would send UVA.

Now, if Duke loses one of their other games, we would have a tie of VT/UVA/Pitt with or without UNC. In both scenarios, VT comes out ahead. I think that means we prefer Duke to lose any of their games.

I live for shit like this, thanks for outlining it!

You're right, I do love that. Are you the author?

Yup. I've spent way too much time looking at potential ties the last couple of days.

Either way, that list should get a lot easier after this weekend. UNC/Pitt is a big one, because if UNC loses, then all of the ties involving them go away. If Pitt loses, it narrows down their options for getting to 5-3.

If we get the away team trifecta, then the list is just to show how VT would win in various configurations.

I already prefer Duke lose any of their games, so this is working out well so far.

Week 12 Storylines:

-UNC at Pitt:
A Pitt loss would eliminate them from contention. To put it shortly, it would be Pitt's third loss in the division and every tie that goes down to that tiebreaker involves a team that would have no more than 2 divisional losses.

-VT at GT:
A VT win gain bowl eligibility and would eliminate Miami from contention. Miami's in an interesting conundrum. They need VT to drop UVA to 5-3 to force a tie scenario. But, Miami cannot win any tie that VT is part of, so they need the Hokies to drop down to 4 losses. The only way the math works for Miami is for VT to lose the next two but win the last one. Therefore, any VT win prior to Black Friday will eliminate Miami.

-Syracuse at Duke:
Combined with the other two games, if all three away teams win, VT at UVA is the division championship game.

Why do we need Duke to lose to make the Cup a winner-take-all game if the other contenders are eliminated? Because there are two tie scenarios with Duke that can send UVA to Charlotte after a loss in Charlottesville.

Interesting thing about the UVA game, with the change to their ticketing, and the fact they need to win to get the Coastal for the first time ever, they may actually have more fans at the game than Hokies this year.

unless they lose to liberty the week before us and have key injuries (perkins) then their "fans" aren't going to brave the cold just to see yet another Tech win.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Lets make sure that doesnt happen. Planning on going up to celebrate my birthday with a win!

Mitch (2)

UNC/Pitt did affect the scenarios greatly. We went from 29 down to 15. (This is different from the 1000+ in the other thread because I'm not looking at individual game results that don't affect teams involved in potential ties. For instance, I don't care who wins the GT/NC State game, because GT doesn't factor into any of the scenarios at the top of the rankings.)

Full rundown: https://cfarena.blogspot.com/2019/11/acc-coastal-scenarios-during-week-1...

We lost any possibility of a 5 team tie.

Most of the 2 team ties got eliminated. The only two way ties possible are VT/UVA or Pitt/UVA. That's because in order for VT to drop out of a tie, Pitt would elevate to 5 wins, meaning both Pitt and UVA would have to be involved in a tie at 5-3.

VT dropped from 13 winning scenarios to 8. However, UVA dropped from 12 to 4. Miami dropped from 2 to 1, and Pitt stayed at 1. And there's still that one version of a VT/UVA/Pitt tie that could go to any of those three on the funky lower end tiebreakers.

We cannot lock the Commonwealth Cup in as a winner-take-all game this week.

Interesting historical sidenote.

In the 14 years of the ACC having divisions (not counting this year), 22 of the 28 divisional champs just flat out had the best record in their division. 5 more teams just needed to use the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The one time that the ACC had to go further than head-to-head tiebreakers was in 2012. GT, UNC, and Miami were all tied at 5-3. They were all 1-1 against each other, and they each had a 3-2 divisional record. Fortunately for the ACC and anyone trying to figure out the next level of tiebreakers, UNC and Miami were under sanctions and couldn't play in the postseason. GT won by default.

The next level of tiebreakers is "Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference win percentage, and proceeding through the division." Since the next-highest team in the final standings that year was Virginia Tech, it would have come down to record against us, and UNC and Miami both beat us while GT lost to us. Then, once you have a 2-team tie, UNC would have won the division over Miami after having beaten them. Hence why UNC had "Coastal Division Championship" rings made for their players that year.

Huge drastic changes after today's games. There are only 5 possible scenarios left. VT, UVA, and Pitt are the only three teams left in contention.

We already knew that UVA has to be involved with any tie at 5-3. That would push VT up to a 5th win, meaning they would have to lose to Pitt to stay at 5-3. That would push Pitt up to a 5th win. All of that means that any tie has to involve all three of VT, UVA, and Pitt.

The three way tie of VT/UVA/Pitt is still that unknown result that requires going down the tiebreaker list.

There is a four way tie of VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami that VT would win. This scenario would come into play if VT loses to Pitt. In that case, we would need to beat UVA, and then hope for a BC win over Pitt, and a Miami win over Duke.

The only scenario where UVA wins is beating VT. (Unless somehow they win that three way tie.)

The only way to lock in the Commonwealth Cup as winner-take-all would be VT beating Pitt.

Full rundown: https://cfarena.blogspot.com/2019/11/acc-coastal-scenarios-after-week-12...

Eat shit Pitt! 1-0 this week!