We've taken a long look at the minutes played by the bench, but after staring at box scores for too long I started looking more closely at our scoring. I realized quickly that all 9 of our usual players have hit the "Top 3" on a night - including Ojiako. Through 15 games, we've had 45 chances for a player to hit that "Top 3". Here's the breakdown:
| Game | High Scorer | 2nd High | 3rd High | VT Score | Top 3 % of VT Scoring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | Nolley (30) | Alleyne (11) | Horne (8) | 67 | 73.1% |
| Coppin State | Alleyne (18) | Nolley (11) | Radford (10) | 74 | 52.7% |
| USC Upstate | Nolley (23) | Cone (11) | Cattoor, Horne, Alleyne (9 ea.) | 80 | 76.3% |
| Lehigh | Nolley (27) | Horne (14) | Cattoor (11) | 79 | 65.8% |
| Delaware State | Alleyne (20) | Cone (17) | Wilkins (15) | 100 | 52.0% |
| Michigan State | Nolley (22) | Horne (12) | Bede (11) | 71 | 63.4% |
| Dayton | Nolley (15) | Cattoor (12) | Alleyne (9) | 62 | 58.1% |
| BYU | Nolley (22) | Horne (13) | Alleyne (12) | 77 | 61.0% |
| Duke | Horne (15) | Bede (12) | Radford (12) | 63 | 61.9% |
| Chattanooga | Alleyne (22) | Nolley (19) | Radford (8) | 63 | 77.8% |
| Gardner-Webb | Nolley (18) | Wilkins (13) | Cattoor (11) | 73 | 57.5% |
| VMI | Cattoor (14) | Wilkins (13) | Cone (9) | 64 | 56.3% |
| UMES | Nolley (18) | Cattoor (17) | Ojiako (15) | 92 | 54.3% |
| Virginia | Nolley (18) | Radford (8) | Horne, Cattoor (4 ea.) | 39 | 87.2% |
| Syracuse | Cone (19) | Nolley (13) | Horne (12) | 67 | 65.7% |
The data has some interesting points:
- Our "Top 3" scoring on a given night accounts for 52-87% of VT's total points.
- Bede, Cone and Radford have been part of the top 3 scoring only 10 times.
- Alleyne has missed out as part of the Top 3 for five straight games, after being in the Top 3 for 7 of the first 10.
So breaking all that down led me down another rabbit hole - at the player level, how many of the points are coming on "hot" nights versus "not" nights? So I put together another table...
| Player | Times in Top 3 | Points as Top 3 | Total Points | % of Pts/Top 3 | PPG/In Top 3 | PPG/Not Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolley | 12 | 236 | 257 | 91.8% | 19.67 | 7.00 |
| Horne | 8 | 87 | 128 | 68.0% | 10.88 | 5.86 |
| Alleyne | 7 | 101 | 140 | 72.1% | 14.43 | 4.88 |
| Cattoor | 7 | 78 | 107 | 72.9% | 11.14 | 3.63 |
| Cone | 4 | 56 | 98 | 57.1% | 14.00 | 3.82 |
| Radford | 4 | 38 | 117 | 32.5% | 9.50 | 7.18 |
| Wilkins | 3 | 41 | 81 | 50.6% | 13.67 | 3.33 |
| Bede | 2 | 23 | 87 | 26.4% | 11.50 | 4.92 |
| Ojiako | 1 | 15 | 54 | 27.8% | 15.00 | 2.79 |
This gives some more food for thought:
- Nolley, even on an off night, is still productive at 7 PPG but also has the widest separation between his 12 games as a top 3 scorer and the remaining three.
- Radford has the lowest differential at 2.32 PPG.
- Cone, Alleyne, and Wilkins - with 14 appearances in the Top 3 - all have a separation of 9+ PPG between when they're scoring and when they aren't.
So in summary, I think the data does show some hope. All 9 of our regulars have hit into this odd metric, and my thoughts are that this data supports the view that when someone has an off night, someone else is stepping up. Look at Jalen Cone's performance against Syracuse as an example.
I'd welcome anyone else's thoughts in looking at this. Have a great week, y'all!
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