Coronavirus Discussion Thread XV

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

That said, the explosion of comments in recent discussions has veered from useful to pointless and argumentative. Going forward, only Joe and the moderator team will post new "general discussion" threads on this topic. Others will be deleted. Moderators will lock threads as needed if discussion becomes destructive.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

As always, the Community Guidelines will be enforced by the moderators as best we can. At this point, repeat offenders who continue pointless bickering and whose posts continually incite arguments will be banned, at least temporarily. Doing so is in the interest of keeping TKP a strong and positive community.

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Comments

From the paper:

International studies that have assessed how readily COVID-19 spreads in schools also reveal low rates of transmission when community transmission is low. Based on current data, the rate of infection among younger school children, and from students to teachers, has been low, especially if proper precautions are followed.

The rest of the article is how not having school is bad for kids. I don't think anyone is saying that there should just be no school, but that until the conditions required are met (low community transmission and proper precautions- PPE, capability to social distance, sanitizing materials, etc.) that in-person schools should not open.

Unfortunately large parts of the US are not undergoing low rates of community transmission, and I believe many school systems (which are already chronically underfunded) are struggling with the logistics of ensuring proper precautions.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

School opening decisions can be made by individual Counties, many of which have low rates of community transmission.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I agree, it has to be on a county basis, because that's where the community transmission is or is not occurring, and they're the ones who understand the logistics the schools are facing.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

What constitutes "low rates"? Remember when all of this was starting and the testing was behind and we were seeing cases in NY, the UK, and other places who were seeing the initial hit, double every 2-3 days. So what is considered slow? The county I live in has a population of 170,000 and is seeing between 20 and 50 new cases every day, and that has been relatively flat for the past two months. Cases are doubling every 33 days. There have only been 4 covid deaths in the last 30 days.

The hospitals are not strained. With what we are doing now, the virus is still spreading, but we are not seeing any exponential growth patterns.

Schools are going to remain remote for the first 9 weeks of the school year. My prediction, nothing changes between now and then. We will still see a slow spread of the virus with 20-50 new cases per day, just like we have seen for the last two months.

There are some people who will never be comfortable, the rate of transmission will never be low enough. What is low enough?

I understand the logistics/funding to execute cleaning and proper precautions is a problem. Our school system was prepared to open, but the school system was forces to change decision after one high school's teachers threatened to strike.

I can't speak to individual counties, or any counties really for that matter. I'm not a decision maker. Sure, it sounds like if your county can provide the reasonable precautions then they could provide in-person instruction. I'm merely pointing out that it's not nearly as simple as "no in-person instruction is bad for kids, open the schools!"

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

I think this is the key question that no one really knows how to answer or at least examine except epidemiologists. I think a lot of people want this question answered before making a decision though.

In your county's case, when you have low transmission rates in a community, one argument is that maybe schools are relatively safe, especially because kids don't seem to contract / spread CV19 like adults. Then there are the other folks who say schools could be a breeding ground which could leak to the community - then you'd have a real problem on your hands. I don't know the right answer. There's evidence that transmission rates are low among children, but a lot of people are hesitant to base everything off of the limited data that exists.

Some higher ed back to school stuff is just silly though. I'm at UT Austin and they've come up with a "hybrid model" where half the classes are online and half in person. That still means that every student has to come back to campus. The dorms will be full and dining halls will be in full swing. They've admitted that they can't really do testing on students, so what happens when there's an outbreak in the dorm?

but a lot of people are hesitant to base everything off of the limited data that exists...

Global economy on line #1 for a quick word...

Leonard. Duh.

For the last time, the economy would have crashed if we didn't do any pandemic mitigation. Or do you think that millions of people getting sick is good for the economy?

And we have data (Sweden and neighboring countries) of countries that were more strict in their mitigation efforts doing better in the economic recovery than less stringent countries.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

(Sweden and neighboring countries) of countries that were more strict...

Sweden on line #1 for a quick word...

Leonard. Duh.

Yes, exactly. Sweden is seeing a higher death rates and yet the same economic impacts as neighboring countries.

On the health front, Sweden has paid a heavy price. According to Johns Hopkins University data, Sweden has suffered 50.7 deaths per 100,000 people. That isn't the worst in the world β€” Belgium and the U.K. are higher, for example β€” but far above the 10.4 deaths per 100,000 in Denmark, the 5.9 deaths in Finland and 4.7 deaths in Norway.

But there is also an economic question. Did Sweden benefit economically from avoiding the lockdown?

The economic data doesn't suggest that.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-didnt-impose-a-lockdown-its-eco...

Sweden's central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. The unemployment rate jumped to 9 percent in May from 7.1 percent in March. "The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated," Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note.

This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year, and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6 percent in May from 4.1 percent in March.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Ok got you. Didn't initially see what you were doing there. However,using the words of one of the directors at a Florida testing center where the fatal motorcycle accident was mistakenly counted as a COVID death...

"You could argue" that Sweden's economy was impacted by the crash of the US economy et al.

#globaleconomy

Leonard. Duh.

I remember being in the halls of Lake Braddock during high school where there were hundreds of kids shoulder to shoulder literally "packed" in - shy of having 2/3 of the kids stay home or have an hour between each class so only a certain amount of kids are in the hall, I don't see how you keep any sort of social distancing.

You do realize that should schools even open it wont be what were used to. In fact I'll say this loudly for everyone to hear

Should schools open:

Social distancing will still be prioritized, IE worksheets cannot be handed out, pencils cannot be given, students cant do group work, no recess, no cafeteria, no lockers and social interaction etc.

Lecturing is going to be significantly more difficult with masks as well (and yes masks will be required either way) so that's going to be difficult as well

Which leaves computer work, and online assignments in the classroom where wifi is available which can be done online. Even if people are returning to school, that doesnt mean the classroom will be the same and life will revert to normal.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I have faith it can be done. Americans are smart and innovative.

Look at the fantastic pivot that happened at the end of last school year. Smart people I know have been working out how to do this since then.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

How about the plastic face shields instead of masks for the teachers? They have those at Sylvan Learning Center. Those are small groups and 1-on-1 instruction. Not sure if wearing those would muffle what the teacher is saying in a large room or not, but I could think those might work.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

-sees new coronavirus thread
-checks to see what comment ended the last one
-can't stop laughing

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

surprisingly this is not the comment that prompted me to think it was time to start XV

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

It was good to end it where you did. I saw that last comment, and it had the potential to be a doozy (doozie?).

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

All apologies, ggc. I will restrain myself better in the future. I promise. Really.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Kind of reminds me of Bocephus:

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River, she's a-goin' dry
The interest is up* and the stock market's down
And you only get mugged if you go downtown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cQNkIrg-Tk

* Well, interest rates are actually way down, but hey, nobody is perfect.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

gobble gobble chumps, pls.

I like fluffy puppies.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The hard hitting facts I come to these threads for.

These facts hit more like a big fuzz ball.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Auzzie puppies are the cutest. I almost got a tri male that looked like that one. Got two sisters instead.

Mask and distancing for thee, but not for me?

Leonard. Duh.

How does this produce any helpful discourse?

Or do you think this grainy picture proves that he is a complete fraud and his many years of expertise should be disqualified?

My feelings on Dr. Fauci and his aura have little to do with this picture. I just thought it was funny given his Mr. Miyagi propensity.

#maskonmaskoffmaskonmaskoff

Leonard. Duh.

Fake news. This is actually a picture from a demonstration in Ukraine years ago /s

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Hahahaha. Nice.

Leonard. Duh.

That's so Leonard.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

If those two people are in his "pod" then its not really an issue (assuming there aren't any other fans nearby (I would expect there not to be given there are no fans at the game).

Most people I know don't wear masks in the home around their family.

He also has a bottle of water in his lap. In DC you're allowed to remove your mask when eating and drinking, for intense exercise, etc... The mayor's order really only extends to when social distancing from strangers isn't possible. If you read the actual order, it's really very reasonable and has been maligned IMO because people have conflated the order with the simplified marketing for the order.

That's a bottle of water? I thought it was a homemade bong.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

At least that would explain the shit-eating grin on his face.

Hard to make out because of that QAnon related watermark in the middle of the image.

He throws like a scientist.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

as a scientist, how dare you

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

And look at that, I had no idea you were Swedish.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

His results are repeatable and measurable?

I hope I can do that at 79

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

79?
Hell, I can do that now. Here, hold my beer.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I just hope I'm still alive at 79.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

He doesn't want anyone to catch anything.

Somehow I wandered into the Dad jokes thread, right?

Even his balls are trying to social distance.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Even his balls are trying to social distance.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

You have to do it on purpose to be that bad right?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I never noticed before. Jessica Rabbit is a vampire, she has no reflection.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Whoa, Nelly... that jersey number. He went there. I love it and hate it, simultaneously.

Leonard. Duh.

Ha, I didn't even notice that. I wonder if he chose the number or that's the Jersey the Nats gave him.

I must have posted this on the other thread just before it was closed, because I don't see it there, but there's some positive news on lasting immunity from a recently released paper. It basically says the studies about declining antibodies (and all the fear mongering articles doubling down on those studies) are part of the standard immune response to typical viruses and likely not an indicator that we won't have lasting immunity. The study tracked people six months post infection and found that while antibodies were reduced after a few months, those levels didn't continue to decline, instead leveled off.

Key excerpt:

Based on our data, it appears that the humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic COVID-19 patients is rather prototypical for viruses in having an early expansion phase followed by an intermediate contraction phase and a sustained memory phase. Analysis that terminated their observation period earlier than in our study, but extrapolated a long-term trend based on the contraction phase without considering or determining the memory/consolidation phase, bear the inherent risk to come to over-pessimistic conclusions concerning the durability of humoral immune responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1

Not criticizing you, your post, or the study/article you referenced... but I wonder if I looked hard enough on that website, could I find a study demonstrating the benefits of wearing magnet bracelets in treating arthritis?

I don't know about magnet bracelets but this is not the only preprint study finding similarly as this one.
This particular site is pretty respected and my family in the field pointed me to it.

No, I'm at work and don't have the link but I know I found it by web search try "Covid immune response" or something similar.
You can always check in the comments for any relevant criticisms.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I didn't post exactly what you posted, but since it's Friday after a very long week, I'm down like a clown for some drinking.

Leonard. Duh.

There's loads of other very credible sources that discuss the immuno-response post COVID, T-cells, and cross immunity that basically sing that same tune.

Leonard. Duh.

they don't sing the tune you think they do though...

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

It's a legit site for posting preprints of scientific papers that are up for peer review. Take it with some grain of salt that it hasn't yet been peer reviewed, but all their data is there to see.

I found it on the /r/Covid19 subreddit that's well moderated and has lots of smart people commenting. If there was something blatantly wrong with the data or methodology or the writers had some bias, it would be pointed out in the comments. Thus far, it hasn't.

Encouraging for sure, but some caveats. Notably, as continued to be shown, the more severe the symptoms the more robust the response. So, lasting immunity is not likely in those experiencing negligible symptoms. In addition, their neutralizing antibody tests were limited (as mentioned due to the difficulty of performing the tests safely), and so they extrapolated a small sample to all the patients. Perhaps this extrapolation is fair and accurate, but it's hard to say. They also talk about the "memory phase" but don't show any data on actual memory B cells. Memory B cells and their ability to stay in circulation are the true key to long-term immunity.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Great video from the WSJ on herd immunity. You should be able to access without a subscription. They point out major challenges to herd immunity without a vaccine:

  • They experts estimate only 5% of the world has been infected by the virus - if you assume about 640k deaths from 5% of the world's population, you're looking at around 12-13M deaths worldwide. Obviously that number is rough - you have to account for different age groups, access to healthcare, etc, but it still ain't good.
  • We still don't know how long immunity lasts, but we haven't seen many cases of reinfection

Finally, they hit on the vaccine situation, saying that upcoming vaccine may not be perfect, and may only provide short term immunity, but we can vaccinate individuals multiple times, so expect an iterative solution.

Twitter me

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article244443257.html?fbc...

Starr County once went about three weeks without a COVID-19 case at the beginning of the pandemic. It banned large gatherings, tested hundreds of residents a day, issued stay-at-home orders and required face masks β€” many of the same mandates now commonplace across the U.S. The poor and mostly Latino county on the Mexico border was containing COVID-19.

That was then, this is now

But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged.

The county has been forced to form what is being compared to a so-called "death panel." A county health board – which governs Starr Memorial – is set to authorize critical care guidelines Thursday that will help medical workers determine ways to allocate scarce medical resources on patients with the best chance to survive.

A committee will deem which COVID-19 patients are likely to die and send them home with family, Jose Vasquez, the county health authority, said during a news conference Tuesday.

"The situation is desperate," Vasquez said. "We cannot continue functioning in the Starr County Memorial Hospital nor in our county in the way that things are going. The numbers are staggering."

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I'm sure everyone has been enjoying 2 days without comment on this thread. But I feel this article is worthy of sharing. It offers a perspective that is not widely shared. Maybe this will be a new perspective for some of you.

Read Me

Thanks for sharing.

Edited.

Leonard. Duh.

Classifying all dissenting views as "loud noises" isn't the best way to foster good faith debate.

Not all dissenting views...

Leonard. Duh.

These kind of comments just reinforce the patronizing vibe from both of you that you are revealing the truth to all us media-deluded simpletons.

both??

If I see an article that I think has merit but is not mainstream, what is wrong with sharing it? A lot of smart people on these threads and I have done nothing to suggest I hold the truth or that you or anyone else is a simpleton. I'm tolerant and respectful of everyone's views, thoughts, and opinions.

TKPers can read that article and make up their own mind. That is why I didn't even add my thoughts on the article, because I felt it better to just let people read it if they felt so inclined.

So again, what is wrong with sharing an article?

Google patronizing and then reread your lead up to the article you posted.

Still don't think my post was patronizing. I came across an article, and I thought to myself, "That is a bit new and well put together. Maybe some TKPers would appreciate it."

oh well...

That lead up was not patronizing. I'm sure that loads of TKP'ers actually have thoroughly enjoyed not seeing "Coronavirus Discussion" on the front row for a couple of days.

Leonard. Duh.

You're correct that the first sentence was not patronizing.

I think you also know that is not the part I'm suggesting is patronizing.

I don't think any of it is patronizing. To suggest that many posters on here may not be reading many COVID-19 articles posted from the perspective of the American Institute for Economic Research is probably more spot on than it's not.

That's not an opinion or a dig. That's just a logical observation. I'll let you have the last word on this if you want... this little side discussion probably needs to be done.

Leonard. Duh.

To suggest that many posters on here may not be reading many COVID-19 articles posted from the perspective of the American Institute for Economic Research is probably more spot on than it's not.

Correct. Because most people on TKP are probably not libertarians, or leaning that way (just a guess based on sample size and nationwide demographic distribution), and as such are probably not keeping up with AIER regularly, if at all.

The source is irrelevant in this case to the take, which is consistent with what you've been posting for fifteen threads. Herd Immunity/Economy first/lockdowns don't work is the drum you've been banging throughout these threads.

That took a lot of doing to get to the point where you acknowledge that the OP was not being patronizing, but I'll take it.

Good day, sir.

Leonard. Duh.

I still firmly maintain OP's post was patronizing, by definition.

-> Tells Chris that he can have the "last word".
-> Chris responds with post that the community appears to agree with.
-> Responds anyway.

My pointing out that the OP was going to cause contention sure is causing contention. I'll edit it.

Leonard. Duh.

Thanks Leonard. Have a good one!

step 1: create a straw man where the only opposing viewpoint is hiding from the virus for all eternity
step 2: ???
step 3: profit

99.8% of people who get the virus have minor symptoms if any, per this article. So if we can limit those with the virus to a few hundred thousand at a time, we limit the serious cases we have to deal with to a couple hundred. If we just let the whole population of the US get it (330 million, right?), then upwards of 600,000 serious cases need to be handled.

What if we had some magical way to keep the cases down to a trickle of new infections while a vaccine is being developed? Well we don't, not without cost to the economy, apparently. So instead of railing against a straw man, why doesn't the author put forward some numbers comparing the cost of lockdown vs the cost of an unchecked virus to produce herd immunity in the shortest timeframe? Because that doesn't make for as intriguing an article, I'd guess.

Sometimes I wish people like this would just carry it to the logical conclusion. Don't stop at the vague "some people have to die to get to herd immunity" but straight up say "if you are over 65, your time may be up, but so be it." Or "your mom doesn't get to live. Sorry." Because that's what lock down is trying to avoid, but what strategies like this will result in.

By this guy's logic, we should just dose the whole country with measles and let herd immunity take over. But we don't have to do that because we have a vaccine that makes that unnecessary. So how about we buy some time to get to the same point with covid?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I mean, it is widely shared, just not on TKP because it's pandering to a certain crowd.

Take this paragraph for example.

No book on cell and molecular biology that I've found mentions lockdowns and hiding as ways to beat a virus. "For most viruses that attack humans," says Cell and Molecular Biology for Dummies, "your only defenses are prevention and your own immune systems."

He literally says that lockdowns don't beat a virus, then quotes that prevention is one of the only ways in the very next sentence.

* Edited to not be so coarse.

I noticed the same sentence and thought, well he doesn't make his case strongly there. To call it pandering garbage is extreme.

It is an absolute fact at this point that healthy people and young people have a high survival rate when infected with Covid. It continues that if the healthy population were allowed to continue operating their businesses and living normally, with reasonable precautions, that the damage to the economy would be minimal compared to what we have seen and what is coming. I do not think we have even begun to see the true damage to the economy and to some of our cities.

This is an important part of the discussion and to call it pandering garbage is ridiculous, in my opinion.

Sorry, I edited it. The garbage part was unnecessary. From my quick reading though, it does not look like he advocates at all for precautions.

The tactics would be travel bans, shutdowns, closures, mandatory human separation, and restrictions on breathing. The computer models proved it would work so surely it would – liberty, human rights, and freedom of association be damned.

The "restrictions on breathing" part is troubling. The only thing restricting breathing in this scenario is the virus, and in a serious way.
He then goes on to say

No one in charge asks your opinion or mine. We are here merely to play our role in an agent-based model. It's the gamification of despotism.

No one asked him because economics has nothing to do with preventing the spread of a pandemic. Economies are going to be affected by pandemics, no doubt, but his opinion has little to no bearing on public health. In fact, you can look at Texas as a case study, who was one of the first states to reopen. Shit hit the fan pretty quickly thereafter, and the state govt was left scrambling to try and right the ship, which it hasn't yet. Matters seem to be getting worse in many areas. Reopening was all about the economy, and unfortunately it just doesn't appear to work like this guy wants it to.

He has some basic misunderstandings about immunology (or else he's getting it wrong on purpose, which would be pretty malicious). Take for example the quote about George Washington inoculating troops with small pox. I guess you could say that Native Americans also received inoculations of smallpox - but that's a different story.

To bring in an expert in Gupta, who says nothing scientific about the virus at all and only spouts that it's the duty of young people to go out and catch it, is pandering. She says that the reason more people don't die from the flu every year is because of herd immunity. What she (or the author) purposefully leave out is that herd immunity is attained through a freaking vaccine, not by getting friendly with your flu-spewing neighbors.

There is a reason her voice has not made it to the top or gets shouted down. If the only thing she can add to the conversation about a pandemic as an epidemiologist is that socio-economic patterns are being interrupted, then she's using her position to pander.

To be fair, I think he's talking about hand washing and not making out with flu patients in that sentence.

By the way, he doesn't say that lock downs don't beat a virus, he references some really smart people that say it.

Leonard. Duh.

Thanks for sharing. We don't have to agree with every word in any article to learn something from it. I like to think everybody is better if they listen to both sides of any discussion before forming his/her own opinion.

Personally, I agree with a portion of the article but it does neglect to point out economical impacts on the side of less closures. The whole debate comes down to how soon a vaccine will be available and how effective it will be.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Thank you for a response that allows for a cordial discussion to carry forward.

Let's assume the eventual vaccine is 100% effective. With that assumption in mind, how does everyone feel about business and school closures if a 100% effective vaccine were going to take 3 more months to get and have widely available? 6 months? 12 months? 24 months? 48 months?

I'm not trying to make any specific point, just conduct a survey of sorts. At what point do you say, "man, that is a long time, we have to give businesses a chance, we have to have in-person instruction for young children" ? Restaurants for example are going to have a very hard time surviving at 50% capacity; most who are forced to do that without a robust carry-out service are going to fail. Maybe you are okay with that, because carry-out restaurants and those able to adapt will survive. Maybe you are not okay with that and don't want to see all of those restaurants fail.

I think a comprehensive mask order for all indoor locations beyond the home...everywhere in the U.S... coupled with aggressive testing and contact tracing... would have and would still work wonders for many of our "normal" activities. For touristy kinds of things and travel beyond our local communities, I think we need an effective treatment or vaccine.

One FL stat that has had my attention from early on is #deaths/#hospitalized. I think today it was right about 24%. If your symptoms are bad enough to be hospitalized, you're in trouble.

I agree that deaths and hospitalizations are among the most important stats. Is that daily #'s? I think the better statistic is total deaths/total hospitalizations and then active hospitalizations/active cases. As testing efforts increase you can get closer to true mortality rates with those two stats.

cumulative total for FL residents

5931 total deaths/24332 total hospitalizations = .24375

I have a hard time believing that a large percentage of the population will have had a vaccine by Easter. I personally don't know when I will feel comfortable taking a vaccine. That is how the zombies start. Ok, I kid about the zombies, but damn a rushed vaccine is pretty concerning.

To answer your question, I think even the rest of this calendar year is too long to continue as is. And I do think that in hindsight, we as a country should have taken better precautions to spreading the virus, but that is in the past and I don't think the people will go for a Milligan attempt.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

We don't have to vaccinate a high proportion of the population immediately, the primary management challenge is protecting the high risk segment of the population from the much larger lower risk group. If we can do that first, it takes a lot of pressure off the system sooner than later.

That said, if a covid-19 vaccine passes testing muster, I'll get it the first day I have access to it.

I with you on this one. I didn't do the swine flu one if you remember that one as I did not find it necessary. However, for this one, I will be getting myself in the line as soon as I can.

Gotta love how the author uses the terms "global capitalism" or "modern capitalism" in place of just saying "globalism" because of how that term would be received by the intended audience.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

Ha, yep! A conversation for another board, I suppose. I do think "globalism" now has a political connotation to it, where the author was trying to highlight global commerce and how much smaller and intertwined the far and wide parts of the world have become.

Impacts on VA high school sports are becoming clearer:

should be under dmcross

reactions:

1) the foundation of the article (first 5-ish paragraphs) overlooks the elements of successful responses, of which there are several; and

2) hybrid vigor isn't exactly a new concept

The article is not meant to be a comprehensive thesis. It is simply meant to highlight the fact that Gupta's expert voice and opinion have largely been ignored.

I have little interest in debating anything here anymore, but thought I would share the article for those who may not have seen that perspective before.

that's cool.

perhaps I should have said that Gupta's interview is just application of hybrid vigor in assessment of the covid outbreak (her 1992 thesis was Heterogeneity and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.)

however, even within that framework, one reason coronavirus is such a high potential threat is that it has its own rules and we don't know what those are. there is substantially less genetic "experience", if you will, of dealing with it since the virus apparently jumped species. and she doesn't touch that.

finally, Gupta's expertise is in theory, not application. so she's a great person to have in the room to challenge norms and explore possibilities. but not necessarily a good person to have making decisions...her policy opinions in the interview go way beyond her scientific expertise.

Nope nope nope.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

It's amazing how reading "Wuhan Virus" immediately makes me want to close a tab and discount the rest of the article. Fear not, I pushed on through. There are so many other reasons to discount the article and I wanted to make sure I only did so after ingesting it. This too shall pass, and in the manner that it deserves.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Regardless, it is always interesting to hear how fixtures in pop culture feel about world events. You can dismiss/discount Rowe's statements and his perspective but that doesn't change them. We have got to get to a point in society where differences in thought and opinion are celebrated. We have to learn to accept that many people hold different and unique views of the world around us, and that is not a bad thing.

We also have to get to a point in society where an uneducated opinion doesn't invalidate or counteract expert opinions.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Policing opinions. Not something I want to be a part of; why not allow everyone to make up their own mind?

EDIT: Rowe is not pretending to be an expert. He is simply making a statement about he feels on the topic and how he is dealing with it. So I do not see how his perspective is counteracting expert opinions. If someone chooses to believe Rowe over experts, well, that would be their choice. Just like you have a choice to read Rowe's statement and disagree with it and take whatever view you choose to hold.

It's not policing opinions- you can believe whatever you want. Even something as bizarre as the Earth being flat. However, public policy should be shaped solely by data-driven expert opinions. I am merely pushing back on the idea that all opinions are valid and worth consideration.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Rowe is definitely not a flat earther. Some things are scientifically proven and universally accepted. Some things are not.

That's what you took from his statement, that Mike Rowe is a flat Earther?

Yep /s

pointing out that his comparison was not a good one. He is trying to say that Rowe's thoughts on the matter have no value because he is not an "expert"

They have less value than an "expert" because he is not an "expert". Are his opinions meaningless? Probably not. But they are only marginally above my flat-earth-believing cousin's boyfriend's stepdad's buddy, relative to said "expert"

Not to jump down this rabbit hole, but I think this is a result of 24hr news coverage. Channels have to fill the time and generate revenue (number of people watching + ads). So you bring some controversial fringe garbage on the show and let them 'argue' with bonafide scientists. In the pursuit of money, you have put these two "opinions" on equal ground. After 20 years of it, people don't see the difference anymore.
This is similarly happening with blogging and reporting as well.

To be fair, I haven't seen a lot of posts pitting 5GcausesCoronavirus.com vs. the Johns Hopkins virus team.

There are plenty of legitimate expert opinions/theories out there that run counter to what you consider are expert opinions/theories. Neither side is uneducated. That's kind of what science is all about. It's not a consensus to be voted on.

Leonard. Duh.

There are plenty of legitimate expert opinions/theories out there that run counter to what you consider are expert opinions/theories. Neither side is uneducated.

Everyone should have the life experience of receiving and addressing public comments on public policies. My personal experience is there are a lot of opinions that run counter; but not a lot of expert opinions that run counter. And the conflicting expert opinions are usually if not always very well known. "Sides" are often based on what is believed to be best for the individuals on a particular "side" (as my old boss used to say, "where you stand is usually based on where you sit").

There is a huge difference between not listening to someone and not agreeing with someone. In this case, Gupta isn't a voice in the wilderness, the basis of her theory is well known...every person who has taken a class in genetics has heard it. Her suggestions are simply unworkable public policy.

"where you stand is usually based on where you sit"

I heard this one from my dad. One of my favs. I do miss him.

Leonard. Duh.

edit: Moved, this comment fits better elsewhere in the thread.

Yeah, we definitely need more Imperial College expert predictions to rely on. Those were some real choice expert opinions.

Interesting? Yes. Relevant and pertinent? Not always.
And I wouldn't expect difference in thought to be celebrated. We are seeing that right now, and no chance I'd expect a celebration to break out.
Accepting of differing views, yes. But celebrating, that's shooting for Icarus.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I meant difference in opinions and views should be celebrated in general, not specifically on the topic of Covid. Without a difference in opinions and views and without celebrating, appreciating, or allowing for them quickly leads to groupthink.

When differing views are "celebrated" there is an empowerment to them. See not wearing a mask. That creates issues, large and small. And the majority of people agreeing to something isn't always "groupthink." That's a dangerous brush stroke there.

Here is a study. I did a simple google search for "opinion versus science". Zero feelings for the subject matter, just the link that shows a study.

Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5102371/

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I certainly understand and do not wholly disagree. And I do not want you to think I am responding in regard to masks.

But it can go the other way, also. What if some of the public has good reason to believe that the scientific community or any other institution has been corrupted? What if some members of the institution are speaking out in opposition to the official views of said institution? Should the public still accept whatever they are being told by the scientific community, or should they be allowed to "question with boldness"? What if it were true that the institution had been corrupted and was doing harm to the public? In that case, empowering all views and opinions and beliefs would be a good thing, because it levels the playing field.

I'm just saying that the minority opinion is always the most important, no matter how wrong it may be or seem. Without allowing and tolerating a minority opinion on any subject matter goes against my personal belief system. While I personally disagree that every athlete over 6' 5" at VT should be converted to a TE, I will always advocate for the right of any TKPer to argue that they should. Similarly, I will defend the right of any TKPer to profess their love for cake and pie even though Ice Cream is head and shoulders above them.

So, what is happening now is "science in real time." Previously, and for centuries, you simply saw the result. There were many iterations, trials, attempts, research, experiments, eggs broken, all of it prior to the information being sent out to the public. Now, there is a sect that wants to only hear what was said at a certain point in time. Right, wrong, or indifferent, that's the drum they are banging. If things have changed, they can't process it. If things were wrong, they can't process it. And they lash out..."you told me THIS!" Well, science, like a lot of things, is a process, not an event. It takes time. But with a pandemic, time is not something we all have. But those stuck in an event are in the way of the process...and the reality of the results.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

That may be. But what happens in the hypothetical I proposed, when the minority/public (however you choose to phrase it) is correct and the authority/institution is wrong? And for the record, I am not even arguing that anyone has the right to stand in the way of any process; I'm simply saying they at the very least have the right to discuss it and share those ideas in a public forum. My point still stands; the minority opinion is always the most important.

The problem is that the authority is not often the authority of record. Or their information is misinterpreted, and the authority are made to be the scapegoats for the bad read. There seems to be a lot of mistrust and want for the authority to be wrong. (Even in what you posted directly above..."when the minority is right and the authority is wrong.") It's been prepped and beat into us for some time that that instance happens all the time. But if the authority did their job correctly, they should not be wrong. And that's an outlier.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

sure. I'm not arguing how common it may or may not be. Even outliers occur. I don't like silencing any opinion even if it would be for the greater good, because next time it may not be for the greater good.

I understand where you're coming from, but giving equal time to fringe ideas can be dangerous. Look at the anti-vax movement. It was given time on mainstream TV and billed as differing, but equally valid, scientific viewpoint. The movement exploded since then and is a danger to society. I'm not saying these views should be silenced, but they shouldn't be given equal footing. There are a lot of people out there that are looking for some kind of answer that's more palatable than what's right in front of them. People that have kids with autism don't want to hear that it's just bad luck or there's some unknown environmental reason. When a boogeyman is dangled in front of them, they jump at it. It's something to blame, to put all their anger and fear into.

It was given time on TV because it was peer reviewed and approved.
I think it was Lancet that published this, correct?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

It continued to get TV time long after the paper was thoroughly debunked.

That's correct.

The Lancet ended up pulling the study after it was refuted by other experts.

But I am 100% correct in pointing out how it gained legitimacy. Once past that other people get emotionally invested.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

It also gained an audience because the dude held a press conference immediately and called for people to not vaccinate their kids with MMR. Then it snowballed, largely because the guy had it published in a high impact journal.

That's not to say it wasn't immediately met with strong criticism. But criticism isn't enough for retraction. It took the Lancet something like 12 years to retract the study because multiple groups had to redo that study using the same methods to show they couldn't replicate the findings. Meanwhile this guy has 12 years to hold up his Lancet article like its Gospel. Giant waste of time for everyone involved and a threat to public health. Also a big hit to science in general.

It goes to show that peer review is not the end all be all in scientific publishing - it's definitely a check point though. When someone fakes the data, but "performs" the study with correct methodology, there's not much that can be done in the peer review process.

I'm getting longwinded here, but there are lots of postings to Medrxiv preprints here and some people are quick to dismiss them because they are not peer-reviewed yet. That is not a good reason to dismiss the findings from these studies. At the same time, many manuscripts I have reviewed get rejected because the conclusions don't match the results - not that the methodology was necessarily incorrect. So if anyone is going to post these papers and say "here look, it supports my opinion", read the paper first. The whole paper. Not just the abstract. Try to form your own opinion from it.

I agree and am well aware.
I think we are in complete agreement on the details and both understand this is how this stuff get legitimacy.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Maybe link to the actual facebook post from Mike Rowe rather than the Infowars knockoff hosting it. Christ, that page reads like a chain email forwarded from a crazy uncle.

I don't use facebook and I clearly stated that I was posting due to Rowe's statement, not the commentary on it.

teachable moment here regarding CGs. Three taken directly from the CG page:

  • Consider the source of information you share.
  • Don't copy and paste entire articles into posts and comments. Limit it to the most relevant paragraph(s). Include a link to the original source so people can read the entire article. Wrap pasted text inside blockquote /blockquote tags using the quote button.
  • Share original content (e.g. embed the original tweet, not a link to another post/website with said tweet), add context / relevant information (e.g. Hudl film for a topic about a new scholarship offer to a recruit).

Presentation and context matter a lot in what we share. It's always best to share the original source (if it's easily available) and not have to worry about how the presentation and context will shape perception of it.

A blockquote of Rowe's comments with a link to Rowe's blog on his own website is probably the best way to share that bit.

FYI: https://mikerowe.com/2020/07/im-not-ignoring-covid/

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Rowe posted this on his own page...just fyi.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Should have taken the time to find Rowe's website. I dont have FB, but didn't think to dig for his website. I didn't blockquote because I thought the whole thing was worth a read, but should have honored the CG's. Thanks.

I'm going to propose a moratorium on links to "interesting opinions" because to date, none of the resulting discussion has been useful.

Want to discuss science? Actual policies that affect our lives? Have helpful information about schools, sports, businesses, etc? All relevant. These threads used to be somewhat interesting. Now it's the same stuff getting recycled.

The link I posted to Rowe's statement did contain science as Rowe's perspective was informed by a scientist's outlook and projection. It just seems that some scientific opinion is accepted while other scientific opinion is not.

I'll stop posting, because very few seem to care about reading anything I have to share. Maybe I will see everyone in XVI or XVII or C.

I know you're trying to stimulate good discussion. It's just not happening. I appreciate the genuine engagement.

With respect to Mike Rowe, I like him. I think he's got great insight into a lot of issues in our country from his own experience. But I don't really care about his interpretation of this situation. If you want that information, ask a scientist or doctor. That's where these discussions get derailed. It's all arguing interpretation.

Thanks. I disagree. His interpretation was specifically driven by information given to him by a scientist and how he has chosen to respond to that information and the world around him. Scientists and doctors speaking about Covid like to provide data and facts. Sometimes interpretations from laypersons are very helpful, because it is more digestible and grounded in a balance of logic, reason, and emotion. The emotion is something that people are having a tough time with when it comes to Covid. Maybe a perspective provided by a layperson can help inform the emotional aspect of this situation in ways that a scientist or doctor cannot.

EDIT: So I still contend that is absolutely relevant to the conversation. It is up to each TKPer how relevant is to them.

An interesting development in the school discussion. Our local school system has decided to start student instruction a week later than planned, to give teachers the first week to get used to whatever plan they come up with for starting. They are achieving that by cutting one day off a vacation, and eliminating snow days. Any snow days will be converted to virtual learning days to achieve the required 180 days of instruction even with the late start.

The Superintendent confirmed that during a speech at our daughter's delayed, outdoor, socially distanced graduation ceremony last night where he indicated that the class of 2020 will probably be the last to experience snow days.

One more loss due to Covid-19 - the cherished, unexpected snow day.

I don't know how sustainable that will be. What if the storm is so bad that many homes have no power? If the students haven't already been given an activity to do that day, there can be no virtual learning. Will there basically be a contingency plan of "do this in case there's a storm tomorrow?" What if it's a blizzard that closes schools for a week?

In Ohio many school districts give a "snow day bag" that you don't open unless there is a snow day. In it you find assignments for the day so it can count as a day of instruction and you bring those sheets in the next day you have school.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I suspect part of the work the teachers will do during that first week is to have a snow day instruction prepared and ready to go. Our district also distributes Chromebooks to every student, so the infrastructure is in place.

I live in upstate NY - snow days almost never involve power outages. Usually its a foot of snow overnight combined with wind to make visibility near zero, or extremely low wind chills that cancel school. If school is cancelled for a week here we have much bigger things to worry about.

Found this pre-release article on a study in South Korea to be interesting with regards to transmission rates among children.

Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020

I've seen studies that focus on transmission rates in different age groups that suggest that children are less likely to transmit the virus than adults, but this study normalizes the transmission rates by number of contacts. When doing so they show that the age group with highest household transmission rate per contact is the 10-19yr old group, while the lowest is the 0-9yr old group.

During school closures the average adult comes in contact with way more people than the average kid that hasn't been in school since March. Many adults still have to go to work or go to the grocery store but most kids' contacts are only their parent(s). This is why it initially looked like kids didn't transmit the virus as well as adults.

South Korea was diligent about contact tracing and these measurements were taken while social distancing and school closures were in effect. So normalizing the data shows that any school above middle elementary school shouldn't even think about re-opening right now.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

SIAP

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.

Myocarditis can also result from the common cold, hepatitis, and other widely known viruses. It usually dissipates in the ensuing weeks of recovery. It looks like this study doesn't definitively find that there is anything unusual about the severity associated with COVID-19... just that more investigation is warranted, which is definitely a good call.

Leonard. Duh.

D.C Public Schools teachers briefly lined up "body bags" outside school system offices, protesting plans that could send them back to classrooms in the fallMayor Bowser is expected to announce if schools will partially open in the fall later this week pic.twitter.com/ARmqgkBfrGβ€” Debbie Truong (@debbietruong) July 27,
2020
" target="_blank">

I totally agree with one of the first comments on this tweet... If you have a substantive argument on an issue, you don't do shit like this.

Leonard. Duh.

They should concentrate on actually teaching students on grade level for reading and graduating 50% of seniors. You know, their job and not politics.

This reads like "shut up and dribble."

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

Because it is how people like him think. Only his and others who think like him have valid opinions everyone else just keep doing your job as your betters want it done.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

This post is trash and has no place on this message board.

If that's your level I'm shocked you haven't said anything about his numerous posts. But hey.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

DC public school rankings are among the worst in the country- in every category.

preview of the mayor's press conference:

Also, I for one am shocked that Leonard agrees with this guy:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

"If you have a substantive argument on an issue, you don't do shit like this."

For the record, the above statement is what I agree with.

Leonard. Duh.

nope, you said the first comment. When I checked, the top comment was supporting the teachers. so.../s

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Leonard. Duh.

Yea like when the colonist that didn't like the new taxes on tea didn't dump tea in the harbor that wrote a nice letter about it. Then when those women wanted to vote they wrote letters instead of marching in the streets or picketing the White House for months.

Protest is not only a fundamental foundation of this nation and should be celebrated and protected not ridiculed or worse shut down.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

The teachers are absolutely free to protest in any way they see fit as long as it's peaceful and doesn't infringe on others' liberty. Never said anything to counter that. You have a knack for mischaracterizing my posts.

Like I said, I just think that particular stunt is indicative of a lack of a substantive argument. It's a fearmongering tactic. The next confirmed case of a teacher contracting COVID from a child at school will be the first one in the world.

Leonard. Duh.

Good thing adults in schools never interact with other adult staff members or visitors right just kids.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I understand your argument, but most of us could be saying something similar right now. At some point, some of us have to return to some form of normalcy to keep some semblance of society and the economy running. I think we can do that by taking precautions and planning and not just throwing up our hands and saying I'm not going to die for this I'm out. That's not a path that's going to take us anywhere collectively.

Schools don't have the plans nor funding to actuall take steps though that's the issue. From the Feds down the mandate has been "open". Well what has Department of Education done to help that?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Same as they've done for everyone else I assume.

Not really. Many private businesses are getting government loans or grants during this time. In many places because of economic downturn public schools are getting less state and local funding.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Nevermind. .

"The next confirmed case of a teacher contracting COVID from a child at school will be the first one in the world."

This argument that you keep trying to make is fundamentally flawed and actually proves that kids shouldn't be in school.

Teachers haven't contracted COVID-19 from kids in school because all around the world schools closed before things got out of hand, therefore teachers weren't in close contact with kids at school during the respective heights of the epidemic in different countries. So the best way to prevent that "first one" would be to keep doing exactly what we're doing, ie keeping kids out of school.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

KIds have gone back to school all over the planet, my friend. We're the last man standing.

Leonard. Duh.

Ah, I wonder what could be different in the last few months that could result in different outcomes in those places and here?

Edit: Sorry, im annoyed at a related topic from elsewhere, that was uncalled for. I should have said, those places took steps earlier that have allowed them to do so. We still have yet to take those steps.

Please, just take a breath sometimes. And GOOGLE things. Might save some frustration all around.

3 Teachers positive, one dies

While this case wasn't with kids in the classroom, it shows the dangers of teaching in a classroom. It's not just the kids in the room.

5 Daycare workers positive, around kids

Again, workers in a space around kids for an extended period.

2 Special needs teachers test positive

These are the most hands-on teachers...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

We're the last man standing.

we are...you'd think we'd have a comprehensive, coordinated plan for dealing with the outbreak by now

We're also one of the last standing who have not gotten even the slightest of grips on the outbreak, nationally.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

This chart from the COVID tracking project does a pretty good job of demonstrating how well things are going. I would call "not even the slightest of grips" just a bit of an overstatement.

Of course, I did hear about a recent survey where many of the respondents think 9% of the US population has died of COVID-19, so... yeah.

Leonard. Duh.

Kids have gone back to school in countries that put on their big boy pants and did the hard work up front so that they are now experiencing relatively low numbers of transmissions and deaths.

This country didn't put in the necessary work or make the necessary sacrificies to prevent the total shit-show that we are currently embroiled in so we don't get to open schools like those other countries.

The other countries ate their vegetables so they get to go out and play. We're still sitting at the table looking at our peas hoping we can argue them away.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Very well put.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

We're the last man standing.

Because we are the only medically advanced, developed country to have gotten no control over the outbreak. The only one.

The wonderful thing about Murca
is that Murca's a wonderful thing
The top is led by incompetence
The bottom is anti-vaccine
They're tired of hoax and quarantine
They're done done done done done
But the most wonderful thing about Murca is
Weeeeee'rrrrrreeee the only one

Apologies to all. I have kids and an overabundance of snark

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Never apologize for the truth.

The next confirmed case of a teacher contracting COVID from a child at school will be the first one in the world.

Israel would like a word. They opened schools in mid-May and had a massive outbreaks in students AND staff. There's of course no way to tell where each staff member got the virus, which you'll certainly lean on. But there is a case study for opening schools and it's devastating to your argument.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.29...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

It is one high school, and yeah... no teacher/student spread was confirmed. This is not a case study for opening schools. It's actually a case study against lock downs. Israel had one of the strictest lock down policies in the world, and they haven't flattened the spread, or curved the surge, or whatever #hashtag we're on now.

Leonard. Duh.

It wasn't just one school, it was many. It's not a case study against lockdowns. It's a case study against prematurely declaring victory and opening things up like things are normal.

Ten days later, a major outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in a high school.

Just reading the article you posted.

Leonard. Duh.

Dude, I pointed you to one case that studied the first school with an outbreak. That doesn't mean it was the only one and a 2 second google search would prove that it wasn't.

It's a case study against prematurely declaring victory and opening things up like things are normal.

We can certainly agree that nobody can accuse the U.S. of doing that.

Leonard. Duh.

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

DOWN VOTING FOR EXCESSIVE USE OF PUNCTUATION MARK!

/S

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Where in the U.S. is open like normal after having claimed "victory" against COVID?

Leonard. Duh.

25% seating capacity at restaurants, and Disney World closed until July, now open at 50% capacity with a mask mandate is hardly "opened back up like normal."

Also, the reporter writing that article basically projected the "victory" claim onto DeSantis.

Leonard. Duh.

The next confirmed case of a teacher contracting COVID from a child at school will be the first one in the world.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I do not think any part of this tangent is helpful.

This tweet has a sliver of news beneath a larger point that is focusing on non-helpful news about this body bag thing that the primary purpose of that tweet is to provoke reactions.

DC's comment isn't helpful, Fireman's response wasn't within Guidelines.

I appreciate the community moderation in this individual thread, but that's about the only positive here.

I support these people in peaceful protest for what they think is right.
My position on their stance itself is unimportant.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The PCR tests are extremely sensitive so you can trip a positive if there are inactive remains in your system that haven't been fully flushed out yet.

It's not common that it would last 12 weeks, but there have been some pro athletes (Paulo Dybala) who tested positive a few times after they were no longer fighting an active infection. He tested positive 2-3 times over a couple weeks.

From my understanding that is not a particularly common occurrence and is not likely making a significant impact on the listed number of active cases.

edit: I would imagine it's being comfortably balanced out by the "recovered" cases that still are struggling to breathe, have no energy, still can't smell or taste, have severe brain fog affecting their ability to work and do normal tasks, etc.

We probably all have it. It's like "The Walking Dead".

Leonard. Duh.

schools here are online through labor day. After that, they're splitting students into two groups and we'll be teaching half our students in person at a time, alternating every week.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

My brother tested positive for covid. Im in quarantine now wish me luckπŸ˜ƒ

The Army's on Ecstasy
So they say
I read all about it
In USA today
They stepped up urine testing
To make it go away
Because it's hard to kill the enemy
On ol' MDMA

Best of luck to you and hope your brother recovers swiftly.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Thank yaπŸ˜ƒ

The Army's on Ecstasy
So they say
I read all about it
In USA today
They stepped up urine testing
To make it go away
Because it's hard to kill the enemy
On ol' MDMA

So it looks like our hearts go out to APrimusHokie and his brother and we're going to be onto Coronavirus Discussion Thread XVI by tomorrow? Is that where we're heading?

I, for one, have a mask on as I charge towards thread XVI! No stopping now! Woooo!

At this rate I'm worried we'll be at Corona Thread LV before Super Bowl LV 😟

VB born, class of '14

When your team is the Minnesota Vikings, you are kind of hoping that there never is another Super Bowl played.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

As a Vikings fan I wholeheartedly disagree - i just want to skip right from the division round to the super bowl, and skip the conference championship game.

Speaking of why not all "opinions" are equal and should not be treated equally... Here's a good read on how #Plandemic misinformation and conspiracy targeted at / marketed to specific tribalized information enclaves was adopted and transmitted to the rest of the internet (sites like TKP for example) and in the process gained a kind of corrosive legitimacy.

In this case, it was a discredited charlatan marketing herself as a "PhD" whistleblower to pimp her book (among other things). But there are other more nefarious actors engaged in spreading misinformation and conspiracy this way.

https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/manufacturing-influence-0

TLDR (Conclusion):

The campaign to recast Judy Mikovits as a whistleblower offers a case study in the type of factional network dynamics and cross-platform content spread that will likely happen repeatedly over the coming months, around COVID-19 as well as the 2020 election. Although the activity involved some fake Twitter accounts, there was nothing that crossed the line into coordinated inauthentic behavior -- this was a marketing campaign that pulled ordinary people into the sharing process. However, it was also a marketing campaign that made blatantly false claims and increased confusion and skepticism around vaccines, health authorities, and institutional responses to the pandemic. Platforms have rightly committed to mitigating health misinformation; this example makes clear the need to develop better solutions that avoid after-the-fact content takedowns that turn manipulative charlatans into free-expression martyrs. Further study of cross-platform, cross-faction sharing dynamics around debunking content in particular would help inform fact-checking efforts, and help platforms gauge how to respond to highly-misleading viral videos.

Edit: the parallels/similarities between the virus and misinformation about the virus are obvious.

There was a novel written by David Baldacci that described a fictional world where a multinational arm dealer engaged the service of a PR firm specializing in perspective management. It resulted in a near global war based on fake news.

When I think about the controversy over the virus, it makes me wonder if there is not nefarious actors taking advantage of this to profit off fake news, misinformation campaign, and using science to justify or refute.

It's exhausting to keep up with a flurry of news about the cases, etc.

You mean something like this?

https://apnews.com/3acb089e6a333e051dbc4a465cb68ee1

Russian intelligence services are using a trio of English-language websites to spread disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, seeking to exploit a crisis that America is struggling to contain ahead of the presidential election in November, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Good news.
International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Conclusions and relevance
In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact.

pdf file
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I saw this a while ago. I'm not sure how much I trust these retrospective analysis studies. The fact that the no treatment group is significantly older than the treatment groups, make me trust this even less.

Yes, but Tables 3 and 4 show data for 190 "not given HCQ" and 190 "given HCQ" patients that were matched based on propensity test score. I think that means they try and find a sample from both groups that match in terms of their comorbidities and demographics, etc.

The 95% confidence hazard ratios are .285 and .832 for given and not given, respectively.

All I am saying is that they do their very best to account for the type of differences you pointed out. And they do so in a scientific and mathematical way.

It officially publishes tomorrow, 1 Aug 2020.
Can you tell me where you get access to this stuff early or do you have a subscription that allows early access? I'd like to get in on that somehow, if its ok and not unethical.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I use scihub.

It's a Russian website, so it looks a bit shady at first. But basically it's a server that downloads PDFs for scientific articles behind paywalls. I use it when I'm off campus. The only downside is that you can't get supplemental figures, text, etc.

* Edit: Not what you were asking for at all.

LOL.
Thanks though.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

A link to it was posted on the /r/COVID19/ subreddit. I'm not sure where it was actually hosted.

Ok. I decided to stay away from reddit for this, too much pointing at news for information and stuff instead of directly to the source.

Thanks much.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

From what I can see the closest things you get to a news source on that subreddit are scientific journals or press releases from a government agency. Everything is also tagged so you can filter it to only view academic reports, etc.

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

Ok, I'm sure it changed in the past few months or I was looking at something else.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

/r/covid19 is a 100% science based subreddit. It's quite good.

Ok then it is something other than what I was looking at months ago.

Thank you.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

You were probably on the /r/coronavirus sub. That place is full of doomers.

/r/coronavirus actually got me to finally quit reddit

More good news...I know this is a preprint, not peer-reviewed, etc. etc. However, this is somebody putting in some elbow grease and doing work.

Some pull quotes...

No study to date has detected live virus beyond day nine of illness despite persistently high viral loads.

Although SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in respiratory and stool can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. Thus, detection of viral RNA cannot be used to infer infectiousness. High SARS-CoV-2 titres are detectable in the first week of illness with an early peak observed at symptom onset to day 5 of illness.

Update - The actual paper also gives some credence to the very real possibility that asymptomatic spread is kind of rare.

Leonard. Duh.

From this manuscript, how does one make the conclusion "The actual paper also gives some credence to the very real possibility that asymptomatic spread is kind of rare." There is nothing in here that says anything remotely close to that conclusion.

Pertinent Parts of the paper:

Twelve studies reported on viral load dynamics and/or duration of viral shedding among patients with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (Table 3); two demonstrated lower viral loads among asymptomatic patients compared to symptomatic patients, while four studies found similar initial viral loads. However, Chau et al reported significantly lower viral load in asymptomatic patients during the follow up compared to symptomatic patients. Faster viral clearance was observed in asymptomatic individuals in five out of six studies. The exception Yongchen et al., found longer shedding duration among asymptomatic cases, but the difference was not significant.
...
Arons et al. cultured viable virus in one out of three asymptomatic cases from the respiratory tract.
...
In URT and LRT specimens, prolonged shedding was associated with illness severity and survival with the shortest duration observed in asymptomatic patients.
....
Although viral loads at the start of infection appear to be comparable between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, most studies demonstrate faster viral clearance. among asymptomatic individuals. This suggests similar transmission potential among both groups at the onset of infection, but a shorter period of infectiousness in asymptomatic patients. This is in keeping with viral kinetics observed with other respiratory viruses such as influenza and MERS-CoV, in which people with asymptomatic infection have a shorter duration of viral shedding than symptomatic individuals. However, there are limited data on the shedding of infectious virus in asymptomatic individuals to quantify their transmission potential.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Maybe this part? Am I reading this wrong? no /s...

However, Chau et al reported significantly lower viral load in asymptomatic patients during the follow up compared to symptomatic patients. Faster viral clearance was observed in asymptomatic individuals in five out of six studies.

Leonard. Duh.

how do you get from

similar transmission potential among both groups at the onset of infection, but a shorter period of infectiousness in asymptomatic patients.

to

the very real possibility that asymptomatic spread is kind of rare. ?

Sure, I would expect that asymptomatics can rid themselves of the virus quicker than the people suffering with symptoms. But I don't think you can read that particular sentence and come to the conclusion that they are not infectious at some point in time.

My take home, wear a mask. Even if you can screw, you can still spew...viral particles.

tbh, the best support to rare transmission of asymptomatic individuals is this sentence:

Arons et al. cultured viable virus in one out of three asymptomatic cases from the respiratory tract.

But, the data are woefully incomplete to truly make any true conclusions on transmissions. If the data on viable virus in symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals were more comprehensive and including comparison between the two, one can start to make some inferences on transmission rate. For example, can live virus be extracted from asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals when each have high level of virus levels? The amount of viral shedding is also important. Are asymptomatic individuals with high levels of virus shedding that viable virus at the same or different rate than symptomatic individuals with high levels of virus? If there was a difference, you can then infer that one group has less biological ability to transmit virus.

It is worth noting, from an epidemiological and psychological perspective, that transmission is affected by behavior. What activities do symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious individuals engage into? Thus, behavioral differences between these groups would have a great affect on transmission rate. Behavior isn't even considered in this manuscript (and typically difficult to consider in these types of studies).

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Good. thoughtful response. I appreciate it. We can definitely agree that data is limited, for sure. The behavioral aspect is intriguing. Hopefully, a main behavioral difference would be that symptomatic individuals are staying at home until they're not.

Leonard. Duh.

Yea. For sure. You would definitely hope that anyone with the symptoms would take all precautions at this point.

Cheers.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

I see your emphasis on the last sentence, but aren't there limited data on most of this? WHO has also cited other studies that jive with the limited asymptomatic spread theory.

Leonard. Duh.

Yea. It is limited. That's fair.

I only emphasized the last sentence because it was the only sentence that talked about asympotmatic transmission. The other sections, which I included to try and give a full description of asymptomatic data, doesn't refer to to transmission rates or provide data to support rate of transmission one way or the other.

This is what we can conclude from this data. Transmission is highest when there are high levels of virus in the individual. Symptomatic people have higher levels of active virus longer than asymptomatic, but both have high levels for at least some period of time. From this data, we can conclude that symptomatic individuals have the ability to transmit the virus for a longer period of time than asymptomatic. We cannot conclude anything about the actual rate of transmission when asymptomatic vs when symptomatic. It is clear, however, that transmission does occur during asymptomatic phases.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

This notice from the CDC may make it easier for sports to play on when cases pop up.

Role of PCR testing to discontinue isolation or precautions _ For persons who are severely immunocompromised, a test-based strategy could be considered in consultation with infectious diseases experts. For all others, a test-based strategy is no longer recommended except to discontinue isolation or precautions earlier than would occur under the strategy outlined in Part 1, above.

Sports leagues, and other employers could just institute a 10 day timeout at most after a positive test, and not require a negative test for return so long as there are no symptoms. (If I'm reading this right, anyway...)

CDC seems to be recognizing that PCR testing has a few limitations. Sure wish the national media would pick up stuff like this a bit more.

Leonard. Duh.

What's the limitation of the PCR tests? Too sensitive?

My place of employment does not have the need to test negative to come back to work. Here, the rule is that you haven't had a fever for 3 consecutive days. I'll admit though that I haven't looked into the requirements by various sports associations. The sensitivity of the PCR tests have been reported on for quite some time. Back in March/April, I remember an article raising the alarm because a Korean doctor had another positive CV19 test come back after already recovering. It was pretty quickly figured out that detection of residual viral RNA != active infection.

As far as I know, MLB is requiring returning individuals to test negative twice 24 hours apart.

Leonard. Duh.

And for today's insanity. My wife's cousin got pulled over in Arizona for not wearing a mask while driving in his car by himself.

No. Don't believe this one. Sorry, just do not.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Unfortunately, that one is 100% true. They just gave him a warning. I think because if they actually issued a ticket or fine it would be fought to the supreme court.

Did he go through a drive-thru? Or was he pulled for something else, and didn't put a mask on when speaking with the officer?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

none of the AZ ordinances I read prohibits driving alone without a mask. And their policy is to cite only when someone refuses compliance. you have to do some work to get a fine in AZ

Yes and he was pulled over for not wearing the mask? Again, sorry, don't buy it.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Former Presidential Candidate Herman Cain has died from covid-19. Cain had been hospitalized in Atlanta on July 1, two days after being told he had tested positive for Covid-19, according to a statement posted to his social media accounts at the time.

10 days prior, he attended a large-ish political event with no mask requirements

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/former-gop-presidential-candidate-herman...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

RIP, one of my favorite meme candidates of all time.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

10 days prior, he attended a large-ish political event with no mask requirements

Leonard. Duh.

Just a statement of fact

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

it wasn't that large : )

I was trying to keep it neutral, lol

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Ok, man. I'm just not taking that bait. "Rallies", masks vs no masks... it's already ugly enough out there.

Herman Cain was a good citizen who contributed. Prayers to his family.

Godspeed, Godfather CEO.

Leonard. Duh.

Herman Cain was a good citizen who contributed.

FTFY

Herman Cain was a good citizen. who contributed

This is uncalled for. Please stop.

Get Angry, Bud!

I agree. Herman Cain did not need to be included in this thread.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank