Coronavirus Discussion Thread XIII

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

That said, the explosion of comments in recent discussions has veered from useful to pointless and argumentative. Going forward, only Joe and the moderator team will post new "general discussion" threads on this topic. Others will be deleted. Moderators will lock threads as needed if discussion becomes destructive.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

As always, the Community Guidelines will be enforced by the moderators as best we can. At this point, repeat offenders who continue pointless bickering and whose posts continually incite arguments will be banned, at least temporarily. Doing so is in the interest of keeping TKP a strong and positive community.

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Comments

>600 comments in thread twelve, so here's thread thirteen

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

This whole thing from day one has been less discussion about the virus and more people trying to disprove the articles people find with other articles. Worst thread ever.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

No it's not and I reject all your sources in this post. /s

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Link?

Leonard. Duh.

Why thank you, don't mind if I do.

Presenting----
Lancelot Link
Secret Chimp

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I reject your link and submit my own...

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Anything done while wearing pink underwear, is not valid, in this context.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The fact that you can do that shows how ambiguous everything is

Recruit Prosim

Congratulations to everyone for making it through XII without a thread lock worthy meltdown.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Thanks for doing this GGC.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

These turkey legs brought to you by Rocket Mortgage, which is brought to you by Quicken Loans.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Those aren't turkey legs.

Here's the data.

Leonard. Duh.

Indisputable, in this case.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Listening to the task force update...very strong push to reopen schools.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

In my research, I think I have to support this at the elementary level wholeheartedly right now.
I am slightly more tentative at the High School level and I think at the college level we are going to see lots of imaginative things.

I reserve the right to alter my opinion as more data arrives and is analyzed.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Just curious, I think you said in the previous thread that you have kids. What ages are they?

One is elementary the other starts HS this year.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Q: say elementary school open back up for all in person learning... When a teacher tests positives (when, not if), do they have to use sick leave for their 14 day quarantine? Do the kids in the class + parents also need to self quarantine? If a students family does not have insurance, who pays for them to get tested? Does the quarantine stop with that class room? What about the music teacher, art teacher, lunch lady, school nurse who have all come in close direct contact with a student that caught it from their teacher?

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Here's one for you...
Let me say this loud for those in the backβ€”Teachers are not responsible for the recovery of the economy, babysitting children, or "getting us back to normal." Stop trying to guilt us into risking our lives...

Cut it short for respect to the CG's.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yep, can't expect the economy to get back on track without that free childcare

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I agree. I'm so terrified for my sister, who's a special education teacher, and currently pregnant. She's due after the school year is supposed to start. What happens if she gets sick right before she's due? What happens if she gets sick when she comes back for maternity leave?

In all these discussions about opening school, all I see is people saying how we need to get kids back to school, the impacts on the kids, etc. But I don't see questions raised about the adults that have to be there with the kids, and how they're protected.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

There's also a very broad brush assumption that kids don't transmit the virus. Former CDC director said it's about a third less than adults, which isn't something to ignore.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

But I don't see questions raised about the adults that have to be there with the kids, and how they're protected.

It's really more about the adults being there with other adults, as most evidence says children aren't spreaders of COVID, but it's still a big issue.

Twitter me

Children can spread it, it is just not as likely or rampant as spread between adults is.

These are some good reasons/questions why it does not make any sense for schools at any level to fully open up during this crisis until we first get it under control, increase PPE, implement stricter safety measures, and have robust contact tracing systems in place to quickly contain any new outbreak....which is what the U.S. should have been doing these last 4 months,...but some people just want to gather, party, or eat in restaurants instead, or not follow minimal safety guidelines, etc...

HH4455

For those the scientists/doctors/etc. in the group, what are your thoughts on Ivermectin against Covid? There are a lot of reports coming out of Central and South America singing its praises, but very few controlled in vivo studies have been completed (in vitro studies were very promising). One such study was just released. Small n and nearly everyone survived, but the hospital stay was greatly reduced. There are a bunch of other studies globally, but none in the US.

Ivermectin study (PDF warning)

Stanford is eliminating 11 varsity sports including fencing as a result of cutbacks due to Covid. This leaves UCSD, Air Force, and Incarnate Word as the only varsity fencing programs west of the Mississippi.

I typically thought of Stanford as one of those schools that will sponsor damn near any varsity sport but I guess times are really tough to cut that much all at once.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Continuing my research in XII where I said positive rates were up and the main thing that isn't being covered is testing rates. News outlets are literally running with these numbers. I know I'm preaching to the choir here but good lord people need to realize that Per Million Positive means absolutely nothing without any testing numbers. This is a graph cycling all over social media today and it displays 0 actually helpful data.

(add if applicable) /s

You're right that is lacks context. It is very likely that these medically unadvanced countries are having just as bad infection rates as the US but lack the means to obtain that info. Comparison to other medically advanced countries is more appropriate, but you would pretty much see a sliver for the vast majority of medically advanced countries. (Many European countries are in the double digits per million. For example, France is currently at 582 cases rolling average for 7 days with a population of 67M. That's 582*7/67 = 61 cases per million).

I disagree though that it shows nothing. It's very crude analysis, but it unambiguously shows that the US has infection rates that are in the ballpark to these medically unadvanced countries.

Note: edited to add more context.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Thank you. I posted almost the exact same thing on a LinkedIn discussion recently. Numbers mean nothing without context. They may be very bad and I am not trying to blow them off out of hand, but we have no way to know based on those numbers alone.

Same as the people who talk about the rise in the incidence of cancer. We have X-many more cases of cancer than in 1900! Well no duh. We have X-many more people now than in 1900. And we have people living into their 60s and 70s routinely. Cancer is largely a disease of the elderly. 40 was old in 1900. And we test more than in 1900. I remember telling people that if you scream about the incidence of cancer or the crude cancer rate but do not give the age-adjusted cancer rate, then you need to outlaw antibiotics and seat belts because they both cause cancer!

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

and the sharp decline in pirates.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

And then the daily confirmed new cases for the U.S. as of 8 July is .173k per million population.

Which is still a worthless number to have.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

For the US total, I calculate 1,084 per million for the last 7 days.....

And it seems useful to me. By comparison to France, for example, which is at 61 per million for the last 7 days, the virus is infecting 17 times more people in the US than France. Because the rate of transmission is low in France (and many other medically advanced countries), they have the luxury to test, contract trace, and isolate.

In contrast, our rate is too high. For example, California has hired 10K people to do contract tracing. California is at a rate of 10K new cases a day. How can we effectively test, contract trace, and isolate when the number of new infections per day is equal to the number of people assigned to trace the virus? And most other states have much less contract tracing in place.

People want their liberties. I do too. These liberties would be much easier to exercise if we had strong control of the virus. But, we never reached that control and now the virus is running rampant. The decision on schools, sports, and which businesses should remain open is much easier if we had gained control. But, here we are.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Which supports my point.
The extremes in the methods of testing, collection, presentation, analysis, etc.
Make any useful comparison completely worthless.

I am sure all this data is good but without a decent description of what it actually is, it must lead to poor decisions.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Comparing us to france seems pretty useful to me as well. It certainly shows how poorly we have managed this crisis as compared to france - and if every american understood this, then hopefully it CAN lead to better decisions by the general public (whether that be following safety protocols, wearing masks, social distancing, washing hands, or even choosing our leaders) - all decisions that americans have handled rather poorly.

HH4455

The whole basis of the numbers isn't useful though you can compare per million new cases a week all you want to but it still doesn't cover the fact that test rates/test effectiveness/tests used are completely ignored in the numbers.

Just for an extreme example, pretend the US and France have the same population (because I don't feel like scaling the numbers):

Say the US is testing 1,000,000 people per week. 1,000 are positive.
France is testing 100,000 per week and 1,000 are positive.

The per million scale used in the graph I posted would say that France and the US are equal despite the fact that France has 1% positive test rate and the US has a 0.1% positive test rate. In summary per capita positive doesn't actually give useful information without vast assumptions that France and the US are testing at the same rates.

(add if applicable) /s

I'm trying to understand here. If the US has 17X more cases of cornavirus per capita over the past week than France, why is that not useful without knowing the "test rates/test effectiveness/tests." What do you think France is doing that would be so inadequate with their tests that the comparisons aren't valid. Please help me.

It's crazy to me that we can't compare ourselves to other countries for their response. It is true that having more information on their testing scheme would yield a more nuanced understanding, but wouldn't change the conclusion. France (and the rest of the medically advanced countries sans Sweden) has control of the virus and that is clearly true. The US is in the same ballpark of medically unadvanced countries. That's the takeaway. Getting a better understanding of how each country tests will not change that takeaway.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

We can certainly use this as a comparison but statistically its not relevant. Positive numbers just across states within the US are recorded differently let alone with different countries. I don't think France is doing anything inadequately, this whole subthread isn't about the US doing things right or wrong, its about the fact that the way data is frequently presented in the media isn't actually relevant statistically.

All I'm saying is that the denominator isn't the common. The most accurate way to compare to other countries with data we have right now is % positive test. Leaving the number of people tested out of the equation (which this graph does entirely) means we can't do that.

Back to the original post: I would find it slightly hard to believe that Kazakhstan, Bahrain, etc. are running tests at the same rates that we are. Just looking at Bahrain on wiki it looks like they've run about 600k tests total as opposed to over 32M tests in the US. Florida who is leading that list processed 48,500 tests in their daily report (side note they processed 85k when they had the 11k new positive) and 2.35M total tests. So in roughly 2 weeks Florida has the testing capacity that Bahrain has had since Feb when they recorded their first case. Even when you take into account that Florida has roughly 13 times the population of Bahrain, the numbers per capita are going to be inflated when you take out how much more testing Florida is doing.

Note this was all done quickly but the information is as accurate as I could quickly find:
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bahrain

(add if applicable) /s

Can you give some examples of how France handled this crisis differently than the US and how it was more effective?

I just don't know, and am honestly asking.

The only thing I can see is that they placed more restrictions on their meatpacking plants than we did, but dang, dude...they aren't exactly feeding the world like we are either.

Leonard. Duh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France#Lockdown

Most of Europe locked down hard, to a much greater extent than we did in the U.S. While the approach in each state differed, many still allowed non-essential activities like retail shopping with social distancing. Europe pretty much shut all of that down. If it wasn't essential, you stayed home. I have colleagues in France and Denmark who basically describe it as a lockdown of "90-95% of all activity" (their estimate/characterization) for six weeks, and the virus transmission was dramatically reduced. Cities turned to complete ghost towns. No one went outside, just stayed in their homes unless buying food or medicine. New York is the closest comparison we have domestically. And they're in the best shape in the U.S. by far.

That approach is why their schools are opening more safely and things are far more under control, in general.

Its interesting that some of the same people who were ripping into how those European countries locked down and restricted the freedoms of their citizens back in March and April are now essentially pointing to those countries and how they are opening back up to why we should do it here in the US.

Those countries made the tough decisions and went through the legitimate rough period and they are now reaping the reward for it. We never made that tough decision, and we are now paying for it in the end.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I think some of the controversy over the lockdown in America is related to the economy. To me, and this is just my opinion, it seem some people value the economy more than social distancing and wearing a mask. I have been reading comments on other websites who are citing random journals to support their arguments against lockdown, social distancing and wearing a mask while ignoring some key points made in those journals.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

On your NY example. Early on, NYC was heavily criticized for their handling of lock down... mass transit, etc...their numbers were so so bad. One could argue that their situation being better now is herd immunity, based on CDC sero-studies.

Leonard. Duh.

If they had a mass lock down, how do they then have herd immunity?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

The last numbers I saw said 20% of New Yorkers had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Nowhere close to herd immunity (>60%), and we still do not know if antibodies are fully protective. Have you seen have different numbers?

Has any disease ever reached 60% population infection?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Wouldn't the ones we vaccinate for with weakened versions count?

I'm not drinking, because you formed your comment as a question.

Leonard. Duh.

Not without a vaccination of a weakened virus. (Except for the coronavirus known as the common cold... according to surveys, about 60% of the population gets at least one cold per year.)

A 20-30% infected or previously infected population without a vaccine would be pretty damn wild. If at the end of the day we determine that 30% of the entire country was exposed to COVID, and the death rate remains about the same, The IFR will probably fall around seasonal flu numbers.

Disclaimer: (I know... this isn't the flu)

Leonard. Duh.

That's assuming all (or at least most) cases of COVID provide lasting immunity. Something that we're currently very unsure of. Especially since there is evidence mild cases do not produce as many antibodies or T-cells as severe cases.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.08.20148718v1

Here's the question that's been in the back of my mind --

What If getting the virus doesn't provide lasting immunity and we also don't get a vaccine? Are we supposed to completely shut society down and stay home? Because that seems like if we take it to the extreme, both outcomes end with extinction.

Get healthier as a society so we're less at risk. I mean, some people who are 'at risk' are just old. Some have conditions they are born with (like asthma) but a lot of people who are at risk are smokers, obese, drinking 5 mountain dews/day, etc. These are all very preventable conditions.

We could as start wearing masks as the norm (like a lot of Asian countries have been doing for a while now)

That said I think the scenario your discussing is pretty unlikely.

Twitter me

I'm pretty confident we'll have some form of a vaccine. It may not be something that will wipe it out, but it will at least make it manageable like the flu.

We're also continuing to look at treatment options. A few old drugs are showing promise and new drugs are being developed as well.

The best minds in the industry are laser focused on solving this somehow. It will get done.

I don't have the numbers, but I think (prior to a vaccine), those that were infected with chickenpox was greater than 60% of the population. But chickenpox is so contagious, that herd immunity (via infection) wasn't enough to eradicate it. Unexposed children continued to pass it on (and often intentionally to prevent exposure as an adult, which was typically much worse).

I tried looking up the numbers, but since the vaccine was developed in 1995, the internet is devoid of such information.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

I saw an estimate of up to 30% for the New York metro area based on a CDC sero-survey conducted back in early May.

Leonard. Duh.

New York (outside of New York City) did lock down in a similar fashion. New York City and New York State are very different.

Upstate cities were ghost towns, and very little retail was open (food and drug and home improvement stores were about the only exceptions). Even golf courses were shut down. Nobody went outside in late March or April for two reasons - the lockdown, and the weather upstate was awful - nobody wanted to go outside. People in NY state felt the pain, did what they were supposed to do, and opened later than other states. The new case rate shows it. But now, we have problems with folks bringing Covid 19 into NY. 25% of the new cases in my area last week were from people that had been in a state where cases are increasing significantly.

In NY State, the feeling is that we do have this under control, but many areas of the rest of the county don't, and that is frustrating.

In Virginia, at least in this section of the state, it looked like NY State must have.
Everything closed except no touch gas stations, most grocery stores and hardware.
Even docs offices and dentist offices. The roads were empty.

For SW VA it was effective. Some counties had no cases at all.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Montgomery County had some increase in positive results of the virus. The Town of Christiansburg had an employee tested positive and had to shut down the Rec Center to do another deep cleaning again. We aren't out of the woods.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

Yeah, Montgomery County has been increasing since the 20th of June. Reported cases for the last 15 days in a row. Positivity rate for the 24060 zipcode is going back up, too. Approaching 7% again.

They had opened the Rec Center? I never saw it reopen.

well, there you go...why is a rec center even open to begin with until the virus is completely under control, which it obviously isn't yet?

HH4455

Because the governor of Virginia decided to go ahead with the Phase 3 reopening when the new cases were arriving. That was not a wise decision By him.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

"Some counties had no cases at all."? Last time I looked, Bath County is the only county in Virginia with no cases at all, and that was a couple of weeks ago.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

They are on the board now.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I came here to post that. Not surprised you beat me too it.

The point remains the same.
Conditions are so different even just within the same state that it took months to even record a case.

In those counties people may go a week without seeing someone not in their own family. The farmers here, in Franklin county do not have the same conditions and concerns as those 2o miles away in Roanoke.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

well, actually I think most open countries in the world, other than maybe sweden, have handled this crisis better than the US. I recognize that we don't know a lot about the closed countries but they may have also done a better job at handling this crisis, but they're closed so a lot of unknowns. I could give you thousands of examples of how inept the US has been in dealing with this crisis, but why bother, too time consuming. can you give any examples of how the US has handled this crisis better than other countries in the world? Probably not.

HH4455

I can't give you examples of how the U.S. handled this better than other countries; but, the context of my statement is probably not what you want to hear.

However, I will say that locking down the U.S. is a much different animal than locking down France. It's probably not a great comparison, and I probably shouldn't push the dialog any further.

Leonard. Duh.

I can't give you examples of how the U.S. handled this better than other countries

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

To puiggyback on the above reply, let me fix that for you

I can't give you examples of how the U.S. handled this better than other countries; but, the context of my statement is probably not what you want to hear.

However, I will say that locking down the U.S. is a much different animal than locking down France. It's probably not a great comparison, and I probably shouldn't push the dialog any further.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Sweden is the worst example of how not to lock down. They are, regrettably, killing their elderly and no amount of public handwringing will excuse their practice.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

According to Reuters, Sweden's central bank this month forecast that the country's gross domestic product β€” a measure of the size of a country's economy β€” would shrink by 4.5% this year, contrasting with a previous prediction that its GDP would rise by 1.3%. The Times added that Sweden's unemployment rate rose from 7.1% in March to 9% in May.

As of June 8, Sweden had reported more than 73,000 coronavirus infections and more than 5,400 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University β€” higher than all of the other Nordic countries combined.

Sweden isn't doing so well

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

We should keep in mind that France is about the size of Texas. Not exactly apples to apples as a country. Doesn't make a comparison useless, just know the differences.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

well, I don't think size of country should be an excuse for things like pandemic response. Do you think the US is too big to "not fail"? you know what they say about excuses....well, china is 4x size of US and they appear to have handled it a lot better than the US. I think the countries that locked down and followed basic common sense guidelines have obviously handled it much better than the US. Interestingly though if one did compare france to texas, I guess one could compare the leadership of france and actions french people took during this crisis to the leadership of texas and actions texans have taken - and that would certainly demonstrate the ineptness of texas's leadership and people that live in texas....

HH4455

(Cue ESPN 30for30 Open...)

What if I told you that many regions in China never locked down at all? Businesses were open, and kids were in school?

Also... France (unlike Texas) doesn't have a country to it's south that is currently testing at almost 50% positive for COVID, and dudes are walking back and forth across that border every day.

Leonard. Duh.

So the US has regions with different rates, but Mexico (that is a quarter the size with 40% the population) must have the same rate in all regions, right?

Also, the 50% rate doesn't equate to more people sick. Or even that 50% of the people are positive. Just half the people getting a test now are positive. They did very little testing before. And are testing those they believe are sick now. They have 6 times the population of New York state, and less deaths. You cannot compare rates without having common pieces.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Also... France (unlike Texas) doesn't have a country to it's south that is currently testing at almost 50% positive for COVID, and dudes are walking back and forth across that border every day.

If the cases in Texas are coming from immigrants, I suppose the cases in Florida are coming from ... ... sharks?

Maybe beached whales?

Probably dolphins... They're tired of us screwing up their oceans.

They just ignore US cases came from Europe and now just community transmissions.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I mean I dont think immigration is to blame for either, but since when were there no immigrants in Florida?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Which then get's us back to the graph that started this whole discussion. Is it fair to compare the numbers in France per capita to those in Texas?

I think so, we had more confirmed cases in Austin, TX yesterday than all of France (753 vs 475). I don't see how that could be due to more testing.

The size is important, but other things aren't?

It is a relative comparison to transmission rates. It does not matter if the environment or compliance is different.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Are you picking a fight off old threads? That quote was in reference to whether or not kids transmit the virus as much as adults, which regardless of overall transmission rate as a population, the relative difference amongst age groups is still relevant. I was only pointing out the size of france relative to US. The comparison isnt irrelevant, but I thought it valuable to keep the size of the two countries in mind as I would imagine it makes a difference in how effective the regulation could be handled. China is huge but also completely different government structures for better or worse.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Picking a fight? Seriously? No. Just pointing out the inconsistencies of responses. If you feel that environment doesn't matter, but size does, well carry on. And if you think that kids in other countries have had the same experiences and governing as American kids all around: exposure, time around crowds, all that, well....you've made your mind up.

FWIW, I posted this over there as well. The former head of the CDC said that kids under 14 have about a third less transmission rate of adults. So they transmit at 67%, not next to zero.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Picking a fight was bad phrasing and I apologize. So lets say that is the final verdict and kids transmit a third less, then they would still transmit a third less in France right? Just a third less of a smaller number.

As for this thread, I am in no means trying to say America has done a better job than France. But, I think size is worth keeping in mind. Even within the US, the way things have been handled has varied greatly region to region.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

France and the US are not comparable. Their rates are different. Their handling is different. Their (kids) exposure (because of parental handling) is different. The spikes/increases are different. Therefore, the kids rates/infections/transmission is different.

Try this way, are the children at France a third lower in transmission? No. They are drastically less. That's because they as a society handled things differently, and now are in a different spot. They aren't comparable. It's apples and oranges.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

We will have to agree to disagree on the children debate. If the children are transmitting the virus less due to some biological makeup, which is what they are trying to figure out, then yes they are also less likely to spread the virus in France. Relative to the US, they are even less likely because there is less virus in the population to spread. I dont even know if it is true because apparently the science hasn't gotten there yet to verify. But I hope it is true. And I hope we get kids back to school and it works out for the best.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Comparing us to france seems pretty useful to me as well.

It sure seems like we've surrendered to the novel coronavirus, now, doesn't it?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I still eat Freedom Fries!!!

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Interestingly enough, this paper was written back in 2006.

A couple of excerpts...

There are no historical observations or scientific studies that support the confinement by quarantine of groups of possibly infected people for extended periods in order to slow the spread of influenza. A World Health Organization (WHO) Writing Group, after reviewing the literature and considering contemporary international experience, concluded that "forced isolation and quarantine are
ineffective and impractical."2 Despite this recommendation by experts, mandatory large-scale quarantine continues to be considered as an option by some authorities and government officials.

During seasonal influenza epidemics, public events with an expected large attendance have sometimes been cancelled or postponed, the rationale being to decrease the number of contacts with those who might be contagious. There are, however, no certain indications that these actions have had any definitive effect on the severity or duration of an epidemic. Were consideration to be given to doing this on a more extensive scale and for an extended period, questions immediately arise as to how many such events would be affected. There are many social gatherings that involve close contacts among people, and this prohibition might include church services, athletic events, perhaps all meetings of more than 100 people. It might mean closing theaters, restaurants, malls, large stores, and bars. Implementing such measures would have seriously disruptive consequences for a community if extended through the 8-week period of an epidemic in a municipal area, let alone if it were to be extended through the nation's experience with a pandemic (perhaps 8 months).22 In the event of a pandemic, attendance at public events or social gatherings could well decrease because people were fearful of becoming infected, and some events might be cancelled because of local concerns. But a policy calling for communitywide cancellation of public events seems inadvisable.,

I'm not posting this for any sort of "See... I told you" moment. I'm genuinely intrigued by what changed the minds of the authors... particularly Inglesby and Nuzzo, who are current members of US Team Lockdown.

Leonard. Duh.

This is certainly interesting. But I think it would be important to bring up their other points.

They argue that a large scale vaccination program is the best mitigation strategy. That's a while off, so it's currently off the table.

They argue that isolation of sick people is the next best strategy. We're trying, but that's why testing is so important. Testing is not done to stoke the numbers for political pandering. It's done to identify sick individuals so they can be isolated, especially those who do not show symptoms. But the US testing is woefully behind, even if we are testing a record amount of people. From what I can tell, testing is poised to be reduced, at least in TX. So there's really no hope of isolating presymptomatic or asymptomatic individuals.

I would say that I think many of their points should be taken with a grain of salt as well. For example, in many cases they say that "there is no evidence" to show that something is effective. They use this phrase for wearing of PPE, social distancing, closing schools, home quarantines. Note that this is not the same as "there is evidence to disprove that these measures are effective." All indications are now pointing to masks and other PPE being effective if mandated.

I guess what I'm saying is, if you don't have a vaccine and if you have no hope of widespread testing and contact tracing, then it leaves very few options other than reducing social contacts and wearing PPE.

Oh one last thing. This was written 15 years ago. Science updates.

We have had a pandemic mitigation plan at work for over 10 years. It has always had social distancing as a component.

I won't say where I work, but we would have good reason to stay current on mitigation strategies.

Wait, what?

I won't say where I work

This reminds me of growing in NoVA. A great number of my neighbors and friend's parents worked for the national gov't. Everybody would say which Agency or sector (e.g., "I work for the: FCC, FBI, Secret Service, Navy, or Army, etc."). There were always a select few that would never reveal their agency or sector and would instead say, "I work for the Federal Government." Those people worked for one of two agencies: the CIA or IRS.

I don't know why I shared that anecdote, but I guess your comment just reminded me of that. And now I assume you either work for the CIA or IRS...

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Or None Such Agency -- aka NSA aka National Security Agency

as well as several other related groups that very few Americans have even heard of.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

LOL, no, nothing NatSec related. Way less cool, and much more hated.
Not IRS, though, thankfully.

Wait, what?

UVa?

Leonard. Duh.

context of his post makes it pretty clear i thought

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I'm a federal gov contractor not in nova and also generally respond as I work for the federal government its easier that way. If people i know ask I'll tell them but its just easier with clearance to just put a really broad layer over what you do. My work isn't interesting in the least bit and it stops people from asking weird or repetitive questions.

(add if applicable) /s

I think that's the case with a lot of Government or G Contractor jobs. My little corner of the world is pretty unique and hard to explain. Why bother? I just say I work for the Department.

My wife, however, actually has a cool contractor job. Her actual title is "Role Player."

Aren't we all? Aren't we all?

Wait, what?

might you work for The Department that would necessarily care about pandemic mitigation in the workplace?

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Gonna GLOMAR this, thanks, LOL.

Wait, what?

This is a graph cycling all over social media today and it displays 0 actually helpful data.

You are right, I am having a hard time trying to interpret the graph.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

Couple football/COVID related updates:

UNC has shut down their voluntary workouts

B1G is considering a 10 game conference only schedule (aka no VT-Penn State game)

Ohio State just shut down their workouts as well due to COVID. They aren't releasing the numbers, however.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Shut. Down. Football.

Saving lives is far more important than football.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

Lives are more important than football.

I think these multi million dollar programs can find a way to keep theri athletes in shape for another year.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Where there is a will, there is a way.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

What I think is interesting is supposedly all the coaches, staff and players were tested before they came back.

Here in NE Florida despite what the elected state and local officials are doing (or not doing) healthcare and first responders are starting to ramp back up for an increase. Doubling up ICU rooms, turning in patient floors to make shift ICU's and preparing a field hospital in a none completed hospital tower if needed.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Commissioner Waldron (south part of the county) is in critical condition. I'm sure he and DeSantis know each other as a lot of that portion was in DeSantis old congressional district.

Yep and he voted against not only a county wide mask mandate but a requirement for county employees to wear one while dealing with the public!

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Social media has destroyed journalism and a responsible news cycle. The news consumers (a.k.a. citizenry) are not holding journalists or media responsible for the accuracy or sourcing of their reports. Society and social media and sensalitionalism have given heavy incentive to rapid and politicized reporting. We no longer have a slow and steady weekly news cycle; the 24 hr news cycle has been around for some time, but now we have the 24 minutes news cycle. There is essentially zero incentive for journalists to do deep investigative journalism that takes time. And their is no incentive for them to retract and correct their false reporting. Furthermore, consumers rarely take the time nor have the time to find and read the worthwhile journalism that still exists.

We should really take the time as a society to promote, in an unbiased manner, a slower news cycle. Just slow things down.

Every blogger, vlogger, & streamer: But my click$!!!

Yep! I have my ideas on how to try and solve some of these problems, as do all of us, I am sure. But I don't want to get into that here. Really hoping for some football this Fall so TKP can be TKP again.

One thing I just thought of...how much of online advertising revenue is based solely on clicks? Is any of it based on active time spent on a web page with a particular ad viewable?

This is a great twitter thread suggesting that people are pretty good at figuring out whether something is misinformation, but even if they know it's fake, they're still gonna repost or share it. If you put something in the headline rating the accuracy, then people are less likely to share fake news.

The "infodemic" has probably prompted governments to make rash and severely impactful public policy decisions concerning the pandemic as well.

Leonard. Duh.

With the Big 10 announcement I was thinking about how the CFP might handle all this. Will there even be a CFP this year if there are conferences that don't play? What happens if there is a major outbreak in one conference and not another and they have to cancel games? Does a 7-0 Ohio State (assuming some canceled games) get in over a 8-1 Clemson? What happens if one P5 conference delays a couple months and runs their season through January?

I don't see how they have the CFP if conferences all go their own way on this.

Instead of the CFP, they'll just do an invitational tournament that doesn't take into account the breadth of all of college football

Said it in the Big Ten Thread, will repeat here;

the sooner we all accept there will be no college football this year, the better off we'll be.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I resigned myself to not going to the Penn State game over a month ago. Shame since my brother's went to Tech and my mom's whole family went to Penn State. Woulda been fun.

Yeah. I got my undergrad in Hokietown and my masters at Nittanyville.

I'm not ready to condemn the Commonwealth Cup to another year in captivity.

Pretty sure that all of the P5 conferences are going to follow the same plan by the time September rolls around. So we won't see just one of them playing in the spring after the rest have wrapped the season up. If there's a delay in the middle of the season, they'll all delay.

Ah thread 13.

This entirely supports my point.

Looks like vaccines will need early use waivers from the FDA to be rolled out, as the FDA has released guidelines for manufacturers that indicate a full phase 3 clinical trial will be required for full approval

https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/FDA-outlines...

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Man, this vaccine makes me nervous. I'm less concerned about the Oxford vaccine which has more-or-less been in development for years, but I am scared that there will be opportunists who see $$$ with minimal liability and knowingly rush unsafe vaccines to the market. Somewhere there is a number cruncher considering the importance of $550 million in lawsuits against $1.5 billion in profits.

I really doubt a company like Pfizer would risk their brand to put out an unsafe product.

Also, a lot of the new vaccines are mRNA (including Pfizer and Moderna), which is a technology they've been working for years and is coming into its prime at just the right time. I'm by no means an expert, but there are a number of benefits over traditional vaccines. There is no actual virus (either deactivated or attenuated), so there should be fewer chance of side effects. It's also much easier/faster to develop and manufacture than traditional vaccines.

From what I've read, the biggest question about mRNA is the efficacy. It's just unknown how well or how long they'll work. The early trials are showing a lot of promise though.

If mRNA proves effective, it will open a new world of vaccine development. The previous adage that vaccines take 10 years to develop will be destroyed.

Miami and Dade County reported a 33% positivity test rate for yesterday. WOW.

For which test?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I see that there is a lot of assumptions that children do not get Covid, or transmit...
From https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/ here are the numbers as of this morning.
Age Cases
0-9 2,310
10-19 5,031
20-29 11,970
30-39 12,754
40-49 12,078
50-59 10,308
60-69 6,719
70-79 3,487
80+ 3,564
other 710

So kids under 19 have more cases than people over 70. And I can guarantee the older population has been tested tremendously more. I'll say it once more, the former CDC director said that kids (under 20, or 18) transmit at about a third less. That means they are still transmitting. And the numbers show they do contract it.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

No one is saying that kids don't get it, but that they don't transmit. NYT even said this:

the science isn't firm yet. But there are more and more hints that it may be safe, or pretty safe, to open the schools in the fall, especially for very young kids.

There's growing evidence that kids are not big transmitters of the virus to adults. Denmark opened its schools in April. Did not see a big spike up in cases. Finland opened its schools in May. Did not see a big spike up in cases. Even from the beginning in China, the Chinese said, every time they looked at clusters in families, almost never did they see a case where the child, particularly the youngest child, was the one who introduced the virus into the family. Usually it was parent infecting the kids, not the other way around.

We know that kids are big transmitters of flu viruses. And they do it because they cough and sneeze like crazy. But if the biggest symptom that they're getting is inflammation, rather than coughing and sneezing, β€” and that's the case; kids tend to get more sort of cranky, inflammatory, unpleasant manifestations of the disease, rather than something that looks like a cold. Then it would make sense that that might be a reason why they're not big transmitters

That said, it's not clear to me where/when someone is considered a 'child' and when a school aged individual can become a likely spreader.

Twitter me

At some point between elementary school and college age, people go from being unlikely transmitters to routine transmitters. Is there decent data that informs pubic policy where to responsibly draw that line?

Yes, I think this is why you will see many high schools go 100% remote learning, while elementary and middle schools will have some amount of in person instruction.

I don't think we really know the answer.

But zero deaths under 19 years. Also, unclear from that webpage how many of the cases are currently active vs recovered. I'd also bet that a lot of kids under age of 19 aren't being tested due to symptoms, but because a parent or grandparent or someone at daycare has tested positive. Then it turns out they are positive as well, but not experiencing any symptoms. The kids that are experiencing symptoms are likely those with underlying health issues.

I know there is a big concern about transmission. But kids need to be kids, and we need to let them go to school if their health is not at risk.

Yeah, 0 deaths is pretty good! Just wondering though, how many of the survivors will have trouble climbing stairs for the next decade?

From what I've been told, most testing centers won't test minors. A coworker tried to get her kids tested since both had a 3+ day fever (from daycare) and everywhere they tried turned them away and pointed to CHKD. Apparently they were told that CHKD was the only group willing (able?) to test kids. CHKD tried everything in the book to not test the kids and have her keep them home from daycare for 14 days. They didn't agree to test until she pointed out that her husband works at a location with ~10,000 people and nobody wanted him catching and spreading it. From a different CHKD doctor, Velocity Urgent Care is another group outside CHKD testing minors in Hampton Roads.

IT IS NOT EASY TO GET MINORS TESTED.

I watched a car full of 5 kids get tested yesterday as I waited in line. It was funny to watch; it looked like a scene from cheaper by the dozen.

From what I've gathered, every state has different issues with testing. My friends in NYC say you can't get a test unless you have symptoms. Friends in Jersey said only 'at risk' individuals and sick individuals can get tests. Here in Atlanta, anyone can get a test, but it can be difficult to schedule an appointment in a timely manner. There are places that do walk ins, but be prepared to either wait in line or while, or risk the possibility that they run out of testing kits.

Whatever the case, it's frustrating (and frankly inexcusable) that 4-5 months into this mess, we're still dealing with testing accessibility issues.

Twitter me

Agreed. And that means that the data is inaccurate, and our true understanding of how it acts/reacts/moves isn't complete either.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Do you know of any survivors 0-19 that are experiencing lingering respiratory issues? Were any of these survivors experiencing lingering symptoms otherwise healthy before COVID, or did they have underlying health issues. I just have not heard of 0-19 year old survivors experiencing onging respiratory issues after testing negative. They may be out there, but until I see data, I would have to assume the number is very small. Especially when you compare it to the number of kids whose lives are being ruined the longer they are kept out of school and other social activities.

I wish we were able to normalize the numbers based on population size. In my mind there are likely more people between the ages of 0-20 than 70+. Therefore maybe the percentage of people between 0-19 who have contracted COVID is significantly less than the percentage of people 70+.

Sorry, I slapped this graph on here without much thinking.

I'm not sure that more older people are contracting CV19 more than younger people without more specific data. Here's a graph from Detroit (one of the only graphs I could find that wasn't from March)

Yeah, older people have disproportionate case counts relative to population. But I think a few things could be happening to make those numbers look that way. One is that older people are more likely have having a severe outcome after contracting the virus, so the likelihood of getting tested is higher among that age group. Would be interesting to know the rate of being asymptomatic among age groups. I'm sure behavior and environment has a lot to do with it too. Kids can't really drive themselves around, unless they're this kid., so they don't go to grocery stores, protests, or high density areas.

Found this, more detailed and more recent.

Based on it:
- 0-19 has 81.98 million people with 7,341 cases equals roughly 0.00895% of the age population
- 70+ has 35.34 million people with 7,051 cases equals roughly 0.01200% of the age population

Though the relative percentages will follow your example- it looks like you used population #s for the US but case counts for just Virginia.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Michigan is also placing recovering COVID patients in nursing homes to rehab which is probably contributing too.

I know at one time they were testing the at risk age group like crazy and sending younger people home with probable cases. So the data may have a high degree of uncertainty.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

That was definitely true in May here in Orange County, CA. I got a cold and I couldn't get a test through my insurance because I didn't meet an at-risk demographic or lived with someone in that demographic. So, the data from here would be skewed for that reason. Now, the county sponsors tests and will test anybody.

Pretty sure the county only started providing tests because the state has mandated if the county is above a 8% positive testing (among other factors), then public indoor facilities are required to shut down. So, there is an incentive to keep the positive rate low.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

This also skews any percent positivity trends that are being tracked as a means of gauging progress. More testing increases total cases but should theoretically lower percent positive rates assuming healthier people are allowed to be tested.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Yea. that is definitely true. California has a soft threshold for number of testing. The goal is less than 150 tests per 100K individuals a day. California has surpassed that by a great amount recently with the latest surge.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Also for perspective for VA -age group 0-19 is approximately 25% of total state population vs about 4%% of total population over 80 (and about 11-12% over 70) and suspect that is "fairly even" through most of the US though not exact.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Comment:

The first graph is confusing as all get out! If they had put the chart side by side, that would be easier to interpret as my eyes is bouncing between the pyramid.

The second graph is funny since you have the far right labeled, "Unknown." That is hysterical.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

I've heard from coworkers that it is really hard to get kids tested. I'd assume all of the numbers are inaccurate, but maybe even more so the kids. No tests β‰  no cases.

I will say that in SWVA there was no problem getting my almost 18 month kid tested when he spiked a fever. Took him to a MedExpress and in less than an hour he was tested.

Long time listener...first time poster

I'm ready for November 5th to come and Covid magically becomes a non-issue.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

Leonard. Duh.

You should stop. As in right now.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Yeah that's not how it works unfortunately.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

I'm not saying it's going to disappear but I think the whole shutdown I perpetuity is going to end. CDC says the death rate is currently at pandemic threshold levels yet people want to still shut down states and schools.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

We'll see. Hospitals were at one point getting more money to classify deaths as covid related.

The death rate is still declining though. It has a survivability rate of 99.9% so I'm just confused as to why we are all keep shutting it down.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

So when does it end??? How long are you willing to be locked in your house with your kids out of school away?

Just curious.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

I am willing to do responsible things (such as limiting gathering in large groups, reducing non-essential travel, washing my hands, and wearing a mask) in order to ensure the health of my fellow human beings as well as working towards a sustainable recovery.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

Where is this 99.9% number coming from? I'm seeing around 3 million cases in the US and 120,000+ deaths.

My bad...a 99.6% survival rate.

I mean Sweden should be a zombie wasteland with the herd mentality they took right???

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

I mean they do have the highest death rate and a pretty harsh economic impact (worse than neighboring countries on both counts) so I don't think they're really winning with their strategy.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

120,000/3,000,000 = .04 so 4%

96% survival rate....if dr's told you you had a contagious disease but the survival rate was 96% would you be terrified or relieved?

This thread is the worst. I knew I shouldn't have looked at it.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

If you had 25 friends, which would you want to die? That's a 96% survival rate- no big deal.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

That's a garbage argument.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

.... why?

A 4% death rate was presented.

1 out of 25 is 4%.

Stop spending more than 30 minutes on the treadmill.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

I really hate to jump into this but the mortality rate is not 4%. There is a 1/10 factor missing there for undiagnosed cases. I'm not defending the rest though.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

If you weren't going to say it I was. 4 deceased out of every 100 confirmed cases is not the same as 4 out of every 100 to be infected with the germ.

Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi. Tech, Tech, V.P.I.
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah. Polytech- Vir-gin-I-a.
Ray, Rah, V.P.I. Team! Team! Team!

They definitely don't count every death though (mistaken as flu or pneumonia, not retroactively testing the dead until May). It's not off by a straight up factor of 10, it's somewhere in between the two

I'm not sure if it was you but I don't understand why anyone would downvote what I said. It was pretty straightforward and never claimed that 4% was off by a factor of ten.

Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi. Tech, Tech, V.P.I.
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah. Polytech- Vir-gin-I-a.
Ray, Rah, V.P.I. Team! Team! Team!

Definitely did not and actually meant to reply to the guy above you

Looks like CDC most recent estimate is 0.65%, with estimates in June below 0.3%.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Yea man, fuck those 120,000+ dead, and the 3 mil + what, 50,000 new cases per day. It's just some big joke.

You ever stop to think Sweden has a much smaller population than the us, with a much better healthcare system, where people may not have been forced to stay home, but did so out of common sense.

Yes, we can't stay in a permanent flux of quarantine, don't quarantine, but we can move forward in a level headed, educated approach. As you can see, people in the US have a hard time following a semblance of guidance, which has us careening to another lockdown period.

Until there is a vaccine, or way to not overload the hospitals, we should be treading very fucking cautiously. Cause you know, exponential growth and what not. Things won't be normal for a while,or ever again, and just cause your itching for a semblance of what normal was before there was a global pandemic, doesn't mean we should throw caution to the wind.

96% is very different for the US v Sweden. If you're cool with 100 of thousands of people dying and millions of people getting sick with a disease we don't know much about, then you may want to reevaluate some shit.

I have no idea how we get back to normal, but just ignoring the problem cause statistically you may not die, is not how we do it.

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

Yea man, fuck those 120,000+ dead, and the 3 mil + what, 50,000 new cases per day. It's just some big joke.

That's pretty harsh dude. I don't know why you don't care about those people but you may need to re-evaluate some stuff.

My first comment was a bit tongue and cheek but good lord you guys are insufferable.

Do you care as much for the 80k dead from the flu last year or did you not take any precautions to save anyone who may have died from it.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

That's a garbage argument.

80,000 over a course of a year v. 120,000+ in a span of now 6 months. That's about the same. Oh, I forgot we have a vaccine for Covid-19. Also, we know as much about the flu as Covid, and the flu is just as contagious. Got it.

Yea, if im sick with the flu, im going to stay home.

We are the insufferable ones...

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

Just a heads up, they do care about those people. Their comment was also tongue in cheek.

When people get the flu, they stay home. So yes, people take precautions. Some people even wear masks!

There is a flu vaccine (there is not one for covid)

80K in a year vs. 126K (and climbing by ~1,000 per day right now) in about 3 months (first reported death April 6) 5 months (first reported death February 6, I completely read the article wrong, so fixing that)

While I'm not going to be as nonchalant about it as Bragghokie here, I do believe that it's time to end 'shutdowns,' UNLESS the county/state in question is nearing ICU capacity (which is the case in some places). Given that CDC suggests that for every reported case, there's 10 unreported cases, the actually death rate is around 0.4%, and significantly lower for healthy individuals. Additionally, about 40k of those deaths resulted from Gov. Coumo's poor (but well intended) handling of nursing homes - not to say that these deaths don't matter, but they resulted from a terrible policy decision that presumably won't be repeated again, and thus inflating the numbers.

The data shows that for children and healthy adults, there is very little risk. If people can just wear a mask and practice common sense social distancing, we can slow the spread to a manageable amount, and start living a life that resembles something like what we used to have. But that appears to be too difficult for many people.

Twitter me

My concern that always seems to get passed over in these discussions is whether considering only death rate is ignoring potential long-term consequences of the disease. I don't think there's a good study on negative outcomes of Covid that aren't necessarily as black and white as "dead or alive".

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

A friend of mine (20 year old guy) caught it pretty early on (early April, I believe)

They are still struggling with any sort of physical activity. Their breathing continues to be extremely labored.

We have literally no clue what the long term effects of this virus will be. Death rate is low, which is good. But you're right, justifying reopening and spreading the virus because the death rate is low (which, to be honest, is going up again) is just not humane thinking.

This is a fair retort, and I don't have a good response because we don't have any data on it.

My understanding (which may be wrong) is that to have 'long term consequences' you need to be ill enough to wind up in the hospital. Given that around 1% of cases get to the hospital, and most of those are people who are smokers, obese, or have other health issues, the risk of long term consequences appears to be quite low for healthy people.

But to your point, I agree we need more (any?) data around complications of COVID.

Twitter me

Alright I'm done arguing with the same two people. Enjoy these threads. Yikes.

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

I'm not the mod who nuked you, but that comment certainly warranted it. Never a good look to to come flying in off the top rope and then pull the smugly dismissive act of anything anyone says when (a) your numbers are wrong and (b) your math is wrong and (c) you don't understand rates and (d) your analysis reduces to saying "that's a garbage argument".

Even less of a good look to pull it in thread thirteen with 3+ months of precedent for what is okay and what isn't.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

You understand that if 200 million people get it, even if it's "only" a .4% mortality rate, that's 800,000 people dead, right?

The nation was in morning for months and we started 2 wars because 3000 people died. Now people shrug their shoulders at the prospect of 800k dead. I cant comprehend it.

This garbage deserved the nuke. I mean even politics aside, this is saying that the US media is the only one hyping this up, which is just utter bullshit. This is a global pandemic, touching every country on this planet.

We're so fucking narcissistic that we seriously have dumbasses out there saying it's a political hoax to swing a US election. Other countries literally shut their entire system down to the point where you were not allowed to leave your house for any reason other than buy groceries, and here we still can't even do the bare minimum like wear a damn mask. It's really no wonder the rest of the planet right now is isolating the US and not allowing entry into their countries from here. We absolutely deserve it, and we absolutely deserve all the long term ramifications coming out of this that our poorly educated anti intellectual society has earned.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

It's really no wonder the rest of the planet right now is isolating the US and not allowing entry into their countries from here

.

This is why I don't have a problem with ICE not allowing foreign students into the country to study. Once we get the vaccines underway then the government can begin to relax the rule and allow normalcy to return.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

Except the ICE is sending students who are already here out of the country because of the pandemic because...reasons?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Yeah, I think people don't truly understand exponential growth and how it works. There are some concepts that are hard for the human brain to grasp naturally. This isn't meant as a slight towards people, just an acknowledgement that this abstract concept isn't useful to the vast majority of people so they haven't contributed mental resources to understanding it. This is unfortunate, because these concepts affect us all of the time. I consider exponential growth and large numbers to be similar in this regard.

Exponential growth, with regards to a virus, is fucking scary. By the time you notice something, you've already been overrun. Too late. Can't fix it. All you can do is try to minimize future impacts.

If a lily pad in a pond is expanding exponentially and covers the entire pond on day 30, what day is half the pond covered?
Day 29.

How much of the pond is covered on day 25?
3%.

This lack of understanding regarding exponential growth is similar to that of large numbers. People just can't conceptualize a ton of zeros. What's the difference between a $1 million and $1 billion? About $1 billion.
How long is a million seconds? 11.5 days.
How long is a billion seconds? 31.7 years.

How much money is $2 trillion?
Enough to give every American citizen, adult and child, $6,000.

Elon Musk is worth $59.3 billion. How much is that? If you made $100,000 per year and saved every penny (no taxes removed, yay!), it would take you 593 millennia to have his net worth (hint, we are in millennia #2 since year 0). Fun fact, Elon Musk is closer to your net worth than Jeff Bezos'.

I don't think this is really relevant disputed. Everyone agrees that the virus spreads stupid easily; the disagreement is around the severity of the virus.

Edited for clarity.

Twitter me

I think the debate is actually centered on how does it spread, especially through aerosols.

Here's a good article from a neutral, scientific perspective that discuss both views.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/no-the-who-has-not-reversed-its-...

What is not disputed, though, is that the spreading event occur when people are in close proximity (less than the recommended 6 feet) such as going to a pool party, etc. That's why wearing masks and maintaining social distance has prove to be effective in reducing the chance of getting infected. That still does not eliminate the risk of being infected.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

That point I'm getting at is that everyone gets the virus spreads really fast. The people who are suggesting that we return to normal (mostly) aren't suggesting that they can't get the virus; rather that the effects are relatively mild/inconsequential.

Twitter me

Yeah, I think we all get that too. I'm at a loss for words that won't get me tossed so I'll stop.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I disagree. Two things contribute to the total number of deaths, i.e. the severity of the virus. One is the death rate, which you have paid the most attention to. It's obvious why people would focus there - media likes it for the sensationalization factor and it is also an indicator of how my outcome should I contract the virus.

But it's what you said earlier about the spread. Transmission along with mortality rate determine how many people will die. If more people catch it, then more people die. It sounds obvious, I know, but more and more you see people get fixated on the death rate, and consider that to be the only be measure of severity of the virus. When really it's about death rate and transmissibility.

I think is this because we think about ourselves. If I get infected, then my likelihood of surviving is pretty high, but let's say that I give it to 5 people -> they give it to 5 people each -> then they give it to 5 people each. That's 125 infected and the odds are someone in this group will die. That's only 3 rounds of infection removed from me getting it, which can happen in a matter of days.

This scenario is based off the R0 of CV19 being ~5, we know that it can be lower (if social distancing is in effect) or higher, around 7, if very little interventions are in place. That's why I feel hesitant about reopening. It's not that i think I will have a hard time or die. It's about all of those other people that I could infect that will have a hard time with the virus or pass away.

It's definitely true that the media plays up the death rate at the expense of discussing other factors. If it bleeds, it leads.

Another possible reason why some people don't pay as much attention to transmission rate may be a feeling of inevitability. If - IF - one assumes that there won't be a vaccine for a long while (new techniques offer promise, but history suggests we'll be waiting a while), then it sort of follows that most of the population will eventually be exposed. Fast transmission or slow transmission, either way we eventually reach herd immunity or we eventually reach everyone exposed.

This week Japan saw their highest new case count since April. The new cases are reportedly among young people between 20 and 30. Japan's response?
They're going to start baseball back up with fans in the seats.

Leonard. Duh.

And... I know the usual downvoters and critics will be on this like white on rice with "but US has LOTS more new cases!!!" So let's consider...

1. Japan has 200 million less people.
2. They aren't tested "healthy" people, aka no symptoms.
3. There's been no reports that serum numbers are being mixed in with case counts.

A big US problem is that COVID has weaponized politically here from both sides.

Leonard. Duh.

It's also very likely that EVERY person in those seats will be masked up for the majority of the game. Masks are a cultural norm over there. Took me a bit to get used to when I went, but it certainly makes things like this easier than here.

Get Angry, Bud!

I'd totally wear a mask to a game, concert, etc. let's do it if masks work.

Disclaimer- While I don't completely buy the efficacy of cloth masks used by the general public, I do wear a mask in public where required by the businesses that I patronize.

Leonard. Duh.

The masks there were comfortable and fit nicely as well.
The junk here is less effective, foots poorly and is uncomfortable.

Anecdotal and/or a data point of 1. I'm sure others have a different opinion.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

A bigger problem are the people who continually downplay covid repeatedly despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, who look at other countries successful containment and path to normality and can't understand why the US, having utterly failed at containment (unlike most other 1st world countries who took this seriously) can't also return to normal.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

1. Japan has 200 million less people.

Japan has a population density of 874/square mile vs. the US population density of 94/square mile. Population density is much more relevant as far as transmission goes.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

I constantly try to make this point but when I talk about the population density differences of places like SW VA and L.A. County, I get virtual blank stares.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

80 pages of strict guidelines (if a player goes to their mouth, they're ejected; no yelling; no high fives; masks; etc.), 5000 fans per game...maybe we can use it as a model for college football in the fall

/s

I wish you had linked to an article that talks about this. I had to look it up. When I first saw your post, I thought, wow that's a bit premature. But then I read the article and saw that stadiums can only be 50% capacity, everybody wearing masks. So you neglected to mention that there are safety measures in place.

But this comment shows that you don't really understand the point of testing. It's not about tracking the percentage of a population that has contracted it. It's about identifying people that have it, then getting them into isolation. If you have Japan's low numbers, then you don't have to test healthy people because it's manageable to identify sick people, contact trace, and get those people to isolate as well.

Why does the US test healthy people? Because we lost the opportunity for contact tracing a long time ago.

then you don't have to test healthy people because it's manageable to identify sick people

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

My comment would not show up after the quote above for some reason, so I will reply to it here.

I don't think I agree with this premise. If there are 10x as many people that have it in the US as show symptoms (sick), I would assume the same in Japan. I do agree they seem to have a better handle on the spread though.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I think you should have included the rest of the sentence in the quote.

You're talking about asymptomatic rates or people being pre-symptomatic. I think Japan accounts for this by contact tracing from symptomatic cases and placing people that have been in contact with sick people in isolation. This is in contrast to the US where you and I would likely never know if we came in contact with a sick person (unless we're friends or coworkers) because there's no contact tracing to alert us.

I dont know the specifics, but wouldnt contact tracing involve testing those people traced to determine how far of a reach the tracing goes?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

That is what you do in an ideal situation, when enough tests are available, and you can ID enough people. I have some experience here with my EH&S background and what we are doing at work.

Contact Tracing splits individuals into contact tiers:
Tier 0: The infected person. This will likely also include those in the infected person's household.
Tier 1: Individuals that have had close contact with the infected individual. For COVID this is typically defined as over 10 minutes of contact in an indoor setting.
Tier 2: Individuals that have had close contact with Tier 1 individuals, or were in the same location at the same time as the Tier 0 individuals, but did not have close contact.

Obviously, Tier 0 should be quarantining as they are infected. Tier 1 should also quarantine and get tested as soon as possible. Tier 2 will move to Tier 1 if any of the Tier 1 individuals test positive. Tier 2 should exercise extreme caution for ~14 days, only leaving the house for essential activity and get tested if possible.

typically defined as over 10 minutes of contact in an indoor setting.

Bravo. I never saw this in writing somewhere.
Indoor and outdoor contacts are so different as extrapolated from data provided by experts.
Outdoors, at the beach on a sunny breezy day is probably the safest place on the planet from this virus.

Outdoors, on a sunny day, 2 meter distanced from another group sounds like a great place for a baseball game.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Contact tracing is happening in NY, with significant resources involved. There are almost 10,000 contact tracers in NY (https://forward.ny.gov/early-warning-monitoring-dashboard). Confirmed cases are averaging 657 cases per day for new cases. Take a 7 day week into account, and there are probably 10 contact tracers working every day for each new case identified.

Our region has 468 contact tracers, and is averaging 30 cases a day. The local health authorities have gone from focusing on preventing community spread (though masks are required) to containing identified cases. Still work on community spread prevention, but have moved more resources into identifying where the newly confirmed people spent their time, and who they have come in contact with.

It seems to be working. Local hospitalizations are at late March levels, there are only a handful in ICU and there hasn't been a Coronavirus death in our region of 1.2 million people in a week.

Well, when a country of 126,463,521 adds 409 total cases in one day and has a total number of active cases of 2,853 (.002% of their total population) compared to the United States who added 63,007 cases yesterday, has a total number of active cases of 2,108,214 (.63% of total population), and masks/social distancing are laughed at as something "sheeple" do, yeah, it makes sense that Japan feels comfortable bringing back fans in some capacity.

Japan has also been utilizing rigorous contact tracing, something we have not been doing as well.

contract tracing is near impossible at the US transmission rate...

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

See my qualifiers #2 and #3. Japan is testing at nowhere near the rate we are testing.

Leonard. Duh.

What country is next? You are working your way around the globe.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

You understand that most countries that have contained the virus well are now testing less because there is less virus circulating. Italy, Germany, Spain, Japan, etc. are now testing way fewer people because it's not as big of an issue.

We are ramping up testing because it's getting worse, and the % positive numbers are rising in spite of our increased testing. I track the numbers daily.

and masks/social distancing are laughed at as something "sheeple" do,

Is this going on in Montgomery Co? Because, dude.... this ain't happening in NC. Anti-mask is VERY much in the minority here.

Leonard. Duh.

Yeah, it absolutely is. The Everything Blacksburg Facebook group got so toxic with people insulting mask-wearers (and the subsequent arguments) that the moderators had to shut down any discussion of masks, even in general public health announcements. It's awful. People in Blacksburg comply really well, but outside of that, not so much.

Same thing happened with a few Facebook groups in Asheville.

Yup. I've been scoffed at more than once when asking somebody to step back while in line at the grocery store.

And while it may be an outlier, there was the time somebody walked around downtown without a mask while waiting for a test result to come back (which ended up being positive). Town of Blacksburg proper is good when it comes to masks, but as soon as you leave that area, it flips the other way.

I disagree with this assessment. I live in Christiansburg, hence the name, and there is a good mix of those who do wear and those who do not.

The anti-mask wearers believe everything is about total government control and I have yet to see the Mask Enforcement Patrol riding around on their Paul Blart scooter, yelling at people to wear the mask. Have I seen sneer? Sure. The age group of those who sneer are typically between the mid 20s to mid 30s, I'd estimate.

I was resistant to the idea of the mask until my daughter who works at Roanoke Memorial convinced me otherwise.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

I wear my mask in public when around people. I have heard both good and bad stories about people in Montgomery County. More often than not, I see people wearing the masks but probably only 70% at least where I shop.

But I will counter the 20-30's, as I have seen as many 50+ people not wearing masks as young people.

That is also true, re: those above 50 years of age.

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

NE Florida city of Jacksonville has a mask mandate. Daughters dance recital was today. The venue went above and beyond. temp checks of all dancers and audience members, spacing and assigned seats for audience. Masks required. Once lights went down I saw at least 20 move their masks to their chin or off completely. Our master planned community in St. John's county is still holding bingo nights, concerts, food truck rodeos etc and our county has no mask mandate.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Where are you in NC? I'm in Asheville and there are still a lot of anti-maskers in certain parts of the county.

Winston-Salem.

Leonard. Duh.

My home state (SC) has more than twice as many cases (~55k cases in a state of around ~5M people) than ALL of the country of Japan (~21k cases in a country of around ~126.5M people).

What makes you think that we are peers with Japan in where we are at with handling this virus in any way? They have mitigated the situation so much better than we have. If they are opening things up and having sports with fans soon it's because they are seeing sub 500 new cases in the country each day. My state alone had over 2200 new cases yesterday and a percent positive test rate of ~22%.

It will be very interesting to see how things evolve if the current trend continues of certain states (who took the epidemic seriously) improving while others (who did not and continue to not take proper precautions) continue to have the virus explode. We're already seeing New York and New England enact quarantines on folks from specific states.. So what next? Will other states like Virgina and Md, DC enact these policies?

The state governors don't actually have the power to enforce limits on interstate travel. They can talk it up, but ultimately if Joe Houston wants to get in his car and drive to NYC there isn't anything state government can do to stop him.

Problems in any of the states will likely end up spreading back to places that thought they had things under control. We need a full country strategy.

In NY its not a ban on travel - just that you have to quarantine for 14 days if you visit a state on the list. That being said, there really isn't any way to enforce the quarantine, but I wonder about the liability...

I have a co-worker (thankfully we are working from home) who insisted on traveling to Orlando with his family to be at Disneyworld for their first opening day. He told me his family has no intention of honoring the quarantine when he returns, and there is no practical way to enforce that. But I wonder. If he is diagnosed with Covid-19, and then when he was supposed to quarantine, he infects another, does he carry any liability? What if that person requires expensive health care, or even dies? Is he on the hook for that since he violated a state quarantine order?

Not something I'd want to test.

That spike in cases might be the U.S.'s fault though. I'm not entirely sure what you are referring to, so it's possible that these are two different things.

Business Insider Article

I'm sure many of you have seen this floating around the Internet. Can someone more educated than I fact check this for me? I mean, I know the 1% number is up in the air, but what about the ratio of deaths to other repercussions of the virus?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

There are some issues here. The current estimate of fatality rate is not 1%, probably half that at most. The figures here also assume that 100% of the population gets infected; that's unlikely (though possible). I have a problem with that because it inflates the outcome to a shocking extent.

As for the rest, the underlying point is correct - we are going to have millions of people that recover from COVID-19 at the expense of a chronic condition - but the actual incidence of most of those conditions is entirely unknown. So for all the focus on "the fatality rate is really low!" that's not the major point. We're going to have increased burden on our health care system for decades to come. And it's a system that's already strained, too expensive, and too inaccessible for many.

CDC just revised their IFR to 0.64%. That's also assuming typical access to care. If the hospitals are overrun, that IFR climbs significantly.

Even if all the math is correct, it presents the outcomes in a disingenuous way.

3.2M dead
62.3M hospitalized, most with significant long-term complications, most with multiple
Some (indeterminate) hospitalized and eventually "okay"

Still terrible scenarios, but the way it presents outcomes suggests a much higher number of people "down."

That this data is meaningless quite incomplete without context around age, health, and severity. For example:

  • If we're (hypothetically) looking at 3 million deaths, but 50% of deaths come from people in old age, and the other 50% of the deaths come from people who are smokers, obese, or diabetic, well that indicates a different issue health problem with in country IMO
  • What percentage of those with permanent lung damage are smokers or asthmatic?
  • How serious is 'muscle weakness' - does that mean I'm 25 and I'm restricted to a wheel chair for the rest of my life, or does that mean that at 65, I need to stop running 5 miles/day and stick to walking?

I recognize that we don't have a lot of this data yet, especially the longer term information, but we do (should?) have information on hospitalization. The CDC needs to make clear what percentage of hospitalizations are smokers, obese, elderly, etc.

The two biggest problems with this fiasco are the lack of testing and the poor communication.

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I hear a lot of people downplay the virus because "most deaths are old people" or "most have some other medical condition". That's an incredibly callus.

A very large percentage of Americans have some medical condition. About 30% of Americans have diabetes or prediabetes. About 40% of Americans are obese. Sure that indicates a larger health problem, but the fact is those people were living with their disease before COVID. Now they're dying.

This displays a consequence of improved healthcare with expanded reach for the broader populace.
Conditions which would have not been treatable or less effectively treated 100 years ago and would result in death or more commonly a significantly reduced lifespan are now treated routinely.

My condition probably would have killed me about 20 years ago. Now, I am older and have a pre-existing condition.
This is going to reflect in increased mortality and complications for a virus such as this.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I don't know how long it will take to have proper data on lingering symptoms. I have always heard it takes about three weeks to recover from each day of being confined to a bed. Some of the symptoms being reported may just be normal recovery from such a severe condition. Others may be a worsening of an underlying condition. And others yet may be truly long term side effects from the virus. Scary what we don't know.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I have a healthy, cut up, 24 year old friend who lifts/runs 6-7 days a week who got it a few weeks ago. Despite a tough but short 3 days of high fever, severe muscle aches, tachycardia, low blood pressure, and migraines (never developed a cough), he started feeling normal again (despite losing his taste and smell a few days later). However, when he has tried to resume some training, he has been completely unable to "push" himself as he describes it. Even light cardio like jogging has given him a great deal of trouble. Time will tell how long this lasts, hopefully not much longer.

Read plenty of stories of people under 40 having strokes/heart attacks during or in the wake of their infections as well. Lots of potential for really scary long term effects. However, we won't know how common these complications actually are for some time.

Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago performed a double lung transplant on a woman in her 20s who developed severe complications from COVID and was on ECMO (a machine circulates and oxygenates your blood for you). The damage to her lungs was so severe that she almost certainly would have died upon removal from the ECMO. She may still not live more than 5 years and will have to be on immunosuppressants the rest of her life.

To emphasize: in her 20s, otherwise healthy. Full story is linked below (warning: nasty image of one of her lungs after it was removed, but emphasizes what this virus can do to you).

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-1...

I would say this data is not only incomplete, but intentionally misleading. We know he inflated the death rate to make his point. I haven't seen any data on lingering health issues, I've only heard anecdotes. Not saying it's not an issue, but I think they should have a source for those numbers as I haven't seen these anywhere.

Secondly, looking at the Virginia Department of Health dashboard, for every death, there are 3-4 hospitalizations (presumably which also include almost all of the deaths), not 19. Where does he even get that number from?

In my opinion, this is fear mongering at its worst. The virus is bad enough, why make up numbers like this unless you're trying to scare people?

Some call it fear mongering. Some call it preparing for what could possibly happen. Nobody knows exactly what is gong to occur. If it's worse than what it thought, well we weren't told the truth. If it's not as bad as described, then it's deemed fear mongering. Akin to hurricane forecasts, evacuation orders, and prepping for them. If you leave and come back only to find leaves down, is that fear mongering?Or if you don't anticipate Katrina with the storm surge that it actually had, is that not prepping enough?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

This isn't forecasting though, this is blatantly making up numbers to scare people when we do have data to make a more accurate prediction.

Why wouldn't he use actual numbers when we do have decent data on some of these numbers?

Forecasting is making up numbers.

And he labels himself as part mad scientist and part gonzo journalist. So, it's not like he's the CDC. And just in this thread you've seen varying opinions on things....

But....
When the forecast was for 240,000 deaths in the US, that was considered fear mongering.
When it was revised to 60,000 that was fer mongering. (And we are way past that number.)
When it was said it would last into the spring, you know, longer than 15 days, that was considered fear mongering.
When the number of cases were shown on the TV, it was fear mongering.
When the storm surge in NYC for Sandy was projected, it was fear mongering.
When the surge was projeced for Katrina, it was fear mongering.
When rain totals and surges are projected along the MD and DE coast, it's fear mongering.

People do not want to hear what puts them outside their comfort zone. But 8 feet of water on top of what is normal is not an easy swallow. And when it occurs, it's not fear mongering. It's real. I deal with it every day with people telling me that Sea Level Rise is made up...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Forecasting is making up numbers.

So if I forecasted that there will no more deaths and it will snow in the middle of July that would be a valid prediction? Of course not because there's absolutely no data backing that up.

In the weather examples you mention, there are thousands of data points collected every few hours, fed into incredibly complex models. While there's certainly some interpretation, these models are very much data driven.

I'm not saying Corona isn't bad. All I'm saying is why not use readily available data to make his point instead of pulling misleading numbers seemingly out of thin air?

And like I said, he's not the CDC, so why give credence to what he is saying? No different than someone who looked outside and predicted the weather in 3 days. There's no water in what he's saying. Doesn't have to be fear mongering, It's just an uninformed opinion. Don't let everything be fear mongering...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

They should not exaggerate anything, that is how you get people to question and second guess the experts.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"They" shouldn't.
The "They" in this case is some rando, that some people want to believe. That's where things go downhill.
And "they" in other cases are people that have no business professing expertise on subjects.

The article that this sub-thread is off of is from a guy that isn't CDC, or even someone that should be listened to. (See two doctors in a clinic posting on youtube.) Not anywhere near an expert, but being presented as data and such. THAT is the issue here in this case. It's not what "they" shared, but the WHO wrote it. No second guessing, just ignoring.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It's not just this one guy. He's just an example.
Here's more.
Below we have professional people we are supposed to trust, in this case, NBC with poorly researched opinion dancing as fact. If I can find data to refute it, the expert researchers at NBC should be able to as well.

This is just so incredibly common, that I cannot fault people for being confused and some thinking they are being misled. Because they are.

Even if the article is retracted, the click generates the traffic to have it read then the click generates the traffic to have it corrected/retracted. A false or misleading article can generate more advertising dollars than one that is correct the first time.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

He is part of "they." Not all of "they." That was my point...

And it's common because people are scrambling to find something to agree with what they are thinking. We've been beat over the head with the #fakenews hashtag that it's fulfilled it's prophecy, or at least people want to believe that. You saw my Brian Williams gif below...NBC isn't the only channel out there. And this isn't their first foray down this path. Watch what you watch. To your point, that station is just an example.

The CDC and Johns Hopkins post data. Easy to find. Right there. No "they" involved.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It's why I do not goto these guys for news anymore, I goto JAMA, CDC, MEDCRAM, LANCET, SCIENCE, Johns Hopkins, U. of Chicago, etc.

But too many people get their medical information from news sources and not medical journals.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

and yes, I did note the Brian Williams gif. thanks for that laugh.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I haven't seen any data on lingering health issues, I've only heard anecdotes. Not saying it's not an issue, but I think they should have a source for those numbers as I haven't seen these anywhere.

This is where I'm at. For each hospital visit, what's the median and average length of stay? What percent of patients still have some symptoms 1 week after leaving the hospital? 2 weeks? 1 months?

A simple phone call or online survey could get some data on this. I think this information is critical to policy, and for individuals to assess personal risk.

I don't think it's intentional fear mongering; I just think people are (1) acting out of fear (to a degree, rightfully so), and (2) bad at digesting large sets of data.

Twitter me

Ars Technica article linked below talks about a study from Italy that tracked 143 recovered (received a negative test) COVID patients after they were released from the hospital. 90% still had at least one symptom of the disease 60 days after "recovery". It seems more and more that if this thing hits you hard, it stays with you for a long time.

Unfortunately there wasn't a link to the actual study in the article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/two-months-after-infection-covid-19-symptoms-persist/

Good piece from the WSJ today - TL;DR, the warm climate typically doesn't have a large effect on the spread of many viruses:

the researchers looked at how other, long-circulating viruses have behaved in various climate conditions, including two coronaviruses known to cause common colds. After running their model under several different scenarios, the researchers found that seasonal changes in climate became an important factor in limiting viral spread only after a large part of the population became immune to the virus.

the most important factor of all: Human behavior, experts said, trumps climate altogether.

Twitter me

So what's your point? Keep in mind the source and its political/ideological bias. I'll leave it at that.

...finishes brushing off token downvote(s) from shoulder.

The point is a doctor lied about getting coronavirus, and a media giant covered it as the truth. They lied, at worst, or exhibited gross neglience at journalism at best. Not the first time in the last 15 years they've been caught doing so. As far as the source, there are other outlets reporting it. The link I used was easily accessed.

Geezus, dude, don't even get started on politically biased sources. I could point to left leaning politics at the origin of half of the studies and data concerning the virus. Just check out the money behind at least half of the research being done at the Imperial College, for example. I just choose not to go there in this forum, and I do try to assume most scientists try to do good work.

Leonard. Duh.

Dr Fair had an illness consistent with COVID. Maybe it wasn't. How does that affect anything about virus reporting? All reputable sources use Johns Hopkins or CDC data that report on positive tests and deaths. Your linked story emphasizes an indictment of media in general over one confusing case.

How does this story make TKP better? What useful information does it provide?

Nothing about this thread has ever at any point, from any angle, made TKP better.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

There's been a couple of insightful posts and helpful numbers, but 99.999999999% of it has been brutal. I'm honestly not sure how to handle it moving forward. Really appreciate the mods who have kept things as civil as possible.

I feel that I have learned from it. Even of I had already seen a certain article it is good to get varying viewpoints on it. And, it is the biggest thing happening in our lives, so better to have this than the inevitable discussion in other threads (more so)

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

#PromoteLeonardtoheadTKPChilltheEffOutTaskForce

Leonard. Duh.

All kidding aside, which is super hard for me, I think the discussion has been vibrant for the most part. Obviously you've seen that I have been the source of more than a few fisticuffs. Personally, I don't mind the flack. I understand the consequences of stepping into the arena of debate, and for the most part I think I've remained civil. However, if you think that I'm a source of a problem that you want to clean up, I'll cease and desist and just hang around and make UVa jokes, I mean that sincerely. No /s from me. You are the host, and I am a humble guest.

Leonard. Duh.

so much of what you have said has just come off as trollish and contrarian for the sake of stirring the pot, and i have 100% called you out to that effect, multiple times over multiple threads. you might not mind the flack, but you're not the only one who has the deal with it

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

What is the difference between a Wahoo and Rice Crispies?

Leonard. Duh.

One's actually useful.

Rice Crispies belong in a bowl.

Yessir.

Leonard. Duh.

Given the discussion in the thread(s) about 2020 football, specifically how we probably won't be having any, and the understanding we're probably dealing with this mess for another 2+ years, it wouldn't hurt my feelings in the least if you guys just forbid covid threads. But I realize with no sports there's nothing left to talk about. I will probably continue to limit my participation in these pandemic threads, so I'll see you guys in the fishing and hunting threads if we have no sports to talk about.

Either way, I wanted to convey my appreciation to you and the mods for giving everyone a place to discuss, vent, etc.

I will emphasize an indictment of media in general All. Day. Long. The one confusing case is just one example in a sea of glaring examples.

I won't take this any further however, as I am probably edging closer to the cliff as far as CGs.

Also, You had a good response above to the 3 million death/1% chart. Just meant to tell you.

Leonard. Duh.

Because people beat me over the head with information they heard from news sources that I then have to research and find out is contradicts information in a study or promulgated from CDC or Johns Hopkins very very frequently.

Then, as I discuss the differences, I'm accused of not being an expert.
NBC does not help, in this case.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"Left-leaning" lmao sure it is if that's what you define everything outside of the Examiner and related material. That's less of an actual truth than it is just what you define it as

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Interesting .GIF choice, my brother.

Leonard. Duh.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Governor Northam will hold a public briefing on coronavirus tomorrow at 2. His first public briefing in about two and a half weeks.

With hospitalizations and cases spiking in the commonwealth, I don't think it's far fetched to expect some sort of change to phase 3 or a rollback to an earlier phase.

I dont see a spike on the dashboard for hospitalizations. Cases looked like they had a blip up and dropping again. My bet is that it will be a reinforcement of the guidelines so VA doesnt let its guard down.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Take out VA DOH's definition of Northern Virginia (they're doing pretty well actually) and this is what the hospitalization graph looks like right now

Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-4-32-11-PM
Do the same for total cases and you're looking at a graph like this

Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-6-23-15-PM

To be fair, if you take out the Tidewater region, it probably doesn't look as bad. They've hit a really huge surge in the last few days.

I'd expect Northam to restrict that area in some way and warn the rest of us that we're next if we don't figure it out soon.

So what, exactly, needs to be "figured out" in SW VA? I'm not seeing data indicating any type of surge south west of Roanoke, aside from the Blacksburg student shenanigans.

I don't really think anything major needs to be figured out in SWVA. Mask usage could be better and if bars don't open, then I think it should be fine.

But with students coming back in about a month from all over the state into an area that doesn't have the capacity to handle a major outbreak, SWVA will be hit hard if the state doesn't lower their case numbers/positivity rate collectively.

I agree with this. I'm really concerned about what happens when the students return. But honestly, that's not a new feeling for me, just perhaps a bit stronger level of concern than normal.

the hospitalized graph looks a bit like where the Florida hospitalized graph a couple weeks ago. hope Va fares better than we have

I do not know where this graph came from so, do not know all the details of the data.
Anecdotally, in discussions with physicians in practice and have rights at hospitals, this is expected as the number of "elective" cases now get access to surgical suites.

My not be related, dunno.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

it's from FLDOH; I can't confirm it's the raw daily totals but if you line it up with the dashboard, that is almost certainly what it is.

having the new daily totals side by side with the redistributed data would be helpful, but I haven't found it.

Now we see where a large number of testing sites are not reporting any of their negative cases, as they are directed to do.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I was looking at that data today. The blip down was in the graph of cases adjusted to date of infection, and you would expect to see a dip down at the end of that graph. The graph of cases to date of positive test was still climbing up.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

This current spike is almost entirely due to the Tidewater region. I would expect some new restrictions down there. I hope they close all indoor activities in that region like they have done in California.

This, like rabies, has a cure. They put stuff like this in the news simply so you will go OH MY GOD 2020 IS THE WURSTTTT

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

2020 IS THE WURSTTTT

well, i mean...it is

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Having just gotten back to rewatching The Office again, I approve of this message.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Y. pestis has been showing up a couple times a year since forever. Nothing to see here.

This is another case of a reputable news source spreading crap that takes 30 seconds to put right.
They bury the information that this is no big deal in the very last 2 line paragraph in a national news article that should at worst, be Colorado news.

follows the news that there was a case in China last week.

Oh my GOD bubonic plague!!!!!

https://www.cdc.gov/plague/faq/index.html#cases

Worldwide, between 1,000 and 2,000 cases each year are reported to the World Health Organizationexternal icon (WHO), though the true number is likely much higher.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Just a reminder that everyone should be very careful drawing conclusions from a single source of data or a single chart. It is important to know exactly what data is being plotted and how that data was obtained.

For example, I had been using the Charlotte News and Observer because I liked the format they were using to present NC data. I realized that whomever is managing the data over their is simply going to NCDHHS website, taking the new total death toll and subtracting yesterday's death total. Then they are reporting that number as the number of new deaths for that day. The problem is that deaths are not reported consistently, and some are reported much later. The NCDHHS has a "Deaths By Date" chart, which shows the deaths according to the actual day they occurred. So the source that I was using had the total correct, but the trends of increasing and decreasing daily deaths were wrong.

You can see this on the national level by looking at the tables below.

Also, when looking at charts of new cases, pay attention to whether it is date the case is reported or the date the specimen was collected.

This interview clip discusses the lag as well. I'm not intimately familiar with Florida trends, but according to his clip, there was a recent day that 120 new deaths were reported, but only 31 of them occurred in July, and the rest were from much earlier. This aligns with the last column of the heat map in my previous post.

At least thru June (I haven't looked lately), the FL Dashboard published by the state was assigning the newly reported deaths back to the date the death actually occurred. So the bar graph for previous days was taking a week or so to catch up.

edit: so yes, the dashboard lists deaths by date of death

Yes, it seems most of the state websites are doing this. But a lot of the reports that get out into the larger media outlets are not really diving into those details. Instead, they just look at the totals and say, "well, the death total went up another 120 deaths today".

So when the national media is talking about deaths increasing in certain states and correlate it to "re-opening", some of that can be misleading if they aren't doing their due diligence to report the numbers accurately. As you said, the data takes a while to catch up, so it is irresponsible for any media outlet to report on trends based on the most recent day's data. And that is happening a lot it seems.

Thats a good point to bring up re: deaths may be officially counted weeks after they actually occurred, particularly when dealing with one off revisions in deaths (I think New Jersey had one where they classified 1000 extra deaths from the past two months on a single day). However, we need to be careful with the conclusions we draw from that fact. The reason being that the deaths from COVID that happened yesterday, are likely going to also be counted in the future. So if you only look at official deaths that happened yesterday as the "real number", then it will always look lower (since we won't be counting everyone!).

There's no perfect solution to this, all data has caveats and limitations and no particular data set or trend is going to tell the whole picture.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Outstanding example of a fear mongering Twitter post.

I bet the professionals at Disney can figure out how to do this correctly.
Let them try before people like this bash them, they just might be smarter, more experienced and expert at handling crowds.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The problem in America is that we live in a world of black and white now.. Disney Open? cool... Politician bash beach goers? eff you, Disney is open you hypocrite. That's the world we live in, and both sides of the political aisle are guilty of it. If we are going to follow "Germany's/NZ/South Korea's" model, then Disney should remain closed. Opening it, you are opening a whole can of political and PR gotcha worms.

Or it's just a morbid joke...

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

then you'll love this one:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Yup, because it is a fine example of single level thinking.

for example
Could be the corporate office is being run from homes or another place better suited to distancing swo need to open the corporate headquarters for a HUUUUGe corporation just to open a single portion of that corporation.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I dunno, man...

I've spent a lot of time in central Florida during July and August visiting relatives over the years. The thought of walking around outside all day at Disney right now in a mask sends shivers down my spine. There will probably be at least more than the normal number of visits to the medical stations for sure.

Also... I wonder if face mask tan line has become a thing yet.

Disclaimer for the downvote brigade - This is NOT an anti-mask post...but rather a mere musing on the discomforts of life in central Florida during the dog days.

Leonard. Duh.

now that is funny

HH4455

Hong Kong Disneyland Closes Again Because Of Coronavirus

A city health official called the virus's spread in Hong Kong "a bit out of control," according to a report from Asia Times. As of Monday, Hong Kong has seen 1,469 cases of the coronavirus and reported just seven deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Disney reopened two of its theme parks in Florida β€” the Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom β€” on Saturday after a prolonged shutdown. The two others are slated to reopen Wednesday, even as coronavirus cases have spiked in Florida. The state has reported more than 282,000 cases and 4,277 deaths.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Notham made a few announcements today:

- 250% increase in cases for the 20-29 age group in the last month (just in time for them to come back to college campuses!)

- For the most part, the state is doing well. Hampton Roads area is surging and that's where the state's increase is mostly coming from.

- State agencies are going to start cracking down on non-compliance for the mask requirement and proper distancing in stores/restaurants. Unannounced visits and strict consequences for establishments that are not following the rules.

- Northam encouraged stores to enforce the mask requirement more strictly. If somebody isn't wearing a mask, treat them as trespassing. He hopes that "No shirt, No shoes, No mask" is the new mantra.

- Potentially looking at alcohol sales being cut off earlier at restaurants to encourage better distancing/less gatherings.

- Northam encouraged stores to enforce the mask requirement more strictly. If somebody isn't wearing a mask, treat them as trespassing. He hopes that "No shirt, No shoes, No mask" is the new mantra.

have seen "no mask, no entry" for SO many businesses here in NJ. and shop owners/employees are NOT shy or bashful about pointing that out and enforcing it

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I've seen them in VA but the enforcement is super lax. If you walk in without a mask, you're not going to get turned away. It sounds like Northam is going to start making it much more of a big deal if a store is found to not be enforcing it during a surprise visit.

Northam's last direction was that the individual businesses were not to be enforcement arms of the Dept of Health.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

It's likely because the people that would be tasked with enforcing it aren't being paid enough to deal with the stupidity of those that act out when told they need to wear a mask.

Besides the rioting and everyone on a hair trigger.........

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I see your downvotes for bringing the news and I raise you the truthful smack that employees should not be used as enforcers of executive orders. That is the job of the state.

It was the second death connected to confrontations over face masks since the pandemic struck Michigan,

I am not going to subject my employees to threats and violence. I am not going to allow other patrons to threaten violence against those that do not wear a mask. Most of our patrons are outside anyway and they know each other well.

Michigan violence over masks.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Truth. My son has been gigging at a grocery store during this to earn some back to school money... of course that may never happen; I am glad that their policy is to not ask patrons to don a mask. Most people not wearing one probably would if asked, but I do NOT want him mixing it up with that one pyscho over a goddammm mask.

(He would, too. He's unafraid, and he's a stickler for the rules. Bless his heart.)

Leonard. Duh.

When the grocery store close to me started to require masks to enter a couple weeks ago there were some interesting encounters. Some guy was told to leave and get a mask and went off on the girl wiping down the carts. Caused a commotion in the store and was escorted out by a few other employees. Ever since then it seems like the biggest guy in the store is cleaning off the carts now.

That is so infuriating. What an absolute asshole.

This is why I'm glad the grocery store that employs two of my children states masks are required, but doesn't enforce it. Not interested in having some anti-masker go off on or physically confront one of my kids. My kids worked during the worst of the pandemic in NY, and they shouldn't have to deal with those people.

If NY wants to enforce a mask policy at retailers, they can feel free to put state troopers at the door. Its not a retailers job to confront people that are unhinged enough to not understand the benefit of a mask during a pandemic.

I was in Greensboro this weekend and saw store turn away a gentlemen for not wearing a mask. He tried explaining that he has a medical condition that makes it dangerous for him to wear a mask. They didn't care, made him leave.

I have heard about the medical condition thing. Not sure of the details or the merits.

I would never, ever pretend to have a medical condition. Good Gravy. I would be deathly afraid of that karma unleashing her fury on me and leaving nothing but ashes in her wake.

I wear a mask when required, and don't when I'm not. Whatever.

Here's an interesting piece I found on general public mask wearing. It was written in early April. That was before some possibly conflicting data has come out, but it was also written before masks became a toxic, politicized duel between Team virtue vs Team you're-not-the-boss-of-me.

Leonard. Duh.

I don't think he was pretending. His wife and adult children all had masks on, and he was trying to explain why he cannot wear a mask. I didn't hear the details of it. Not sure if it was legitimate or not, but did not get the sense that he was just making it up.

Either way, my point was that the store was going out of their way to enforce the mask policy.

One would counter with the idea that since the rest of his family was willing to comply with the law and human decency, he should just park his butt in the car and keep the AC on for his family to come back to. Why go into the store at all? Again, I call bullshit on this kind of stuff.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Exactly - during the worst of it in NY, family groups were advised not to enter grocery stores - only individuals. Don't need to drag everyone to the store as if things are normal.

I think not wearing a mask is becoming the new "service dog".

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

For some.
For some it definitely is not. The difficulty is that we cannot know, simply by looking, whom this impacts.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I put "service dogs" in quotes, because it seemed that everyone had a "service dog" that wasn't an actual certified service dog that was assigned to that person for a specific health reason. They just simply wanted to carry a dog along with them. They felt the privilege to do so, and there are many out there that refuse to wear a mask because they think they have the right to carry a service dog...

However, there is zero way that 15-25% of the population has a legitimate health reason to NOT wear a mask for 15-30 minutes while in a setting with other people.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

You're thinking of Emotional Support Animal, which is a whole completely different thing than a Service Dog.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I agree that there probably is no 15-25% have a legitimate reason for no mask.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Got you. My mistake in thinking you were trying to imply that he was pretending. The karma pendulum could swing both ways in these cases. I would definitely be afraid to pretend I had a medical condition... And I would also be afraid to assume that someone was pretending they had a medical condition, and make them put a mask on. I like the policy of just posting a sign that reminds patrons that there is a mask mandate and they are required to put masks on, and then just leave it at that. It's just not a businesses responsibility to enforce the governors executive order.

Leonard. Duh.

Oh he was with his wife and adult children? This more convinces me of the statement I made below that this dude should have just stayed home.

Team virtue science vs Team you're-not-the-boss-of-me.

Fixed it for you

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Y'know, I might buy that for an employee on an 8 hr shift, but call bull and bogus on someone refusing to wear a mask for a 4-5 minute trip in the convenience store, or even a half hour in the grocery store. There are so few legitimate reasons not to in those limited situations that it seems to be nothing more than another reason to scoff the law and get your screw yous in to the more responsible of us. I am also so sick of those who spend an awful lot of their time trying to come up with reasons why the mask mandate is wrong, when a bit of effort on their part is all that is required to comply with common sense direction. I hope Northam sets a strong example and doesn't back down to the mob that is opposed to any and all things government, as long as it is the present government, of Virginia. The politilization of this viral response is disturbing, but tells a strong tale about the kind of people we have to live amongst.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Wegman's has signs up at the door saying that masks are required per state mandate in order to enter unless you have a medical condition that prevents you from wearing a mask.

Now I have no idea what kind of medical condition you might have that would prevent you from wearing a mask but when I read the sign I was of two minds: 1) The hell kinda medical condition prevents mask wearing 2) If you got a medical condition that prevents you from wearing a mask during a pandemic, then maybe you really really should just stay home.

Most of what I can find about medical conditions that mean you shouldn't wear masks revolve around respiratory issues. For example you already have breathing issues or are on oxygen. Others are things such as you are involved in activities that get the mask wet. But yeah, if you can't wear a mask because of respiratory issues and have family that are going to the store, you should probably just stay home when there's a viral pandemic that is especially deadly to people with pre-existing respiratory issues...

Probably should, but his choice. Not sure what condition he was claiming; may not have been respiratory, but I do not know. It was a flooring and tile store. I'm sure he just wanted to get out and enjoy doing something with his family.

I know some folks who have some claustrophobic-like issues with masks.

And I know "some folks" who will lie like a rug to avoid being inconvenienced or made the slightest bit uncomfortable, even to the point of getting fake med excuse cards from their favorite internet tinfoil site, all to avoid the obvious, which is that they just don't care. Like I've said before, though, if anyone wants to do what they please without masking, c'mon down to Mathews. Yesterday, I had reason to enter two different establishments. Both serve food. Out of four employees, one vendor, one older fellow playing the gambling machine, and 5 other customers, I was the only masked person in the stores. Nobody likes wearing them. Nobody. I say give them all citations and then let the law sort out the veracity of their claims of medical excuse.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Nobody likes wearing them. Nobody.

This is not true. In Virginia we fought to be able to wear masks while riding a motorcycle in order to not freeze your face in cold weather. Prior to that we were arrested for doing so and I once received a warning that wearing a mask in public was not legal, while I was on my M/C.

Some people wear them because their religion compels them do do so.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Well, you are right. I stand corrected. I also forgot ski masks, snowmobile masks, Halloween masks, Mardi Gras masks, masks for certain sexual fetishists, and how could I have forgotten the Lone Ranger. I do have to be more careful with my prose.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Claustrophobia.

Some people on heart pacemakers.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I have an acquaintance of 20+ years, lives in Denmark. Claustrophobic. One of his symptoms is a feeling of not getting enough air.
A mask, among other things, will trigger it. so, it's kinda double.

He is experiencing lots of problems right now.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yes, I readily concede this point as well. There are some people, for sure, who shouldn't wear a mask for even a small amount of time, but posit that there aren't that many of them that we should give everyone a choice of whether to wear them or not. Maybe we should heed the antimaskers in their advice that if they don't like, want to, or cannot wear masks, maybe people with those conditions should stay home and lessen the target on their backs this virus is honing in on instead of saying screw you to the rest of the population. As for phobias, again, for just what percentage of the population are we going to suspend the rules our health and lives may depend upon? I do know phobias are real, but they are not real in another very real sense, and again, my life means a hell of a lot more to me than someone who's panicked by a real sensation and uses that as an excuse to put the rest of us in jeapordy. I know, I'm very rigid, but I'm also very tired of the narrative at this point. I just want to say to all the antis, "Just shut up and wear your damn mask". I know, rigid and insensitive. And unrealistic.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

And there are ways to cover your face without a tight fitting mask. Some just look for excuses.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yeah, this is the most common response and I appreciate the suggestions but, in this case, it still presents a panic attack. I let him work out these detail himself. He can wear glasses but it's a breath thing, best as I can gather.

I don't get claustrophobia except once, when in a medical imaging device that, unexpectedly, was so close to my face my breath smacked me back. So, this one I also understand though I wear a full face M/C helmet.

My Dad gets crap too for parking in handicapped when he has no outward disability but has had a pacemaker now for about 15 years. So I'm used to the finger wagging.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I would assume your dad has a handicapped license plate and access to a portable sign for the car if not his own, right? I agree that there are many folks that have handicaps that aren't evident and legitimately need handicapped parking, but finger wagging shouldn't occur if he has signage, which I believe is required for the legal use of handicapped parking spaces.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

He has the signage but Karen doesn't care.

One person even saw him hang the sign from his mirror but berated him because she felt he shouldn't be hanging it after he parks, it should be there all the time if it wasn't fake.
He doesn't like driving with it blocking his view out the windshield.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I know we like to rag on Charlottesville here but I counted four people without masks on when I was there Sunday. Made a run to Wegmans and Costco. It was incredible.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

I haven't seen ANY businesses here in NJ which are letting people in without masks.

My wife takes the kids and leaves the house while I watch my Hokie games.........nuff said

That last bullet isnt a bad idea. I dont want to see casual alcohol sales get lumped in negatively but excessive drinking in public is most certainly going to lead to a narrowed 6' safe space (maybe 6" for some close talking drunks, you know who you are)

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Northam encouraged stores to enforce the mask requirement more strictly. If somebody isn't wearing a mask, treat them as trespassing. He hopes that "No shirt, No shoes, No mask" is the new mantra.

All right then, don't wear pants. See if they enforce it!

β€œBut do kind of enjoy reading this thread, it's really nice because Auburn can't swoop in and take our juicy ripe tomatoes.” ~ lewiswb

Some more food for thought.

Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive.

From early July
Coronavirus infections rising fastest among kids younger than 10, dimming prospects for Oregon's school reopening plans. The total numbers were still low and I don't know Oregon's status WRT the virus, but the rate increase is the focus here.

Apparently hospitals are now supposed to bypass the CDC and send COVID related information straight to the HHS. I'm not saying that there isn't a justifiable reason to do this, but cutting out an independent organization whose entire mission is to track infectious diseases definitely raises red flags...like all of them. Why can't hospitals report to both groups simultaneously? Why does the CDC have to be cut out entirely?

Likely because someone wants to manipulate the data however they see fit to their own narrative.

Regarding the first piece:

Dr. Jorge Perez, co-founder of Kidz Medical Services, said it's too early to say how common and severe long-term damage could be from COVID-19, but early evidence suggests some children infected with the virus could have lasting damage.

The article doesn't share what the 'early evidence' is, and doesn't define how much 'some' is. This information is critical when it comes to determining if kids should be sent to school.

Those of us who use TKP regularly likely take internet access for granted. In reality, Online schooling doesn't work for everyone in this country because plenty lower-income families don't have great (or any) internet, or don't have a home conducive to learning. There's a legitimate possibility that these children fall even farther behind by missing out on education (not to mention missing out on social learning and nutrition from the food they may get at school that they don't get at home). Getting kids back into school is way more important than getting college football back - and in many situations (albeit not all), it's about more than just giving parents a baby sitter.

The risk/reward calculation here must account for potential long term risks resulting from kids not going to school. Not going to school could further the socioeconomic divide in America (although, I acknowledge that long term risk factors due to COVID could do the same as well). Articles like this one are vague and (unintentionally) create fear rather than present a rational discussion.

Twitter me

I don't think there is anyone in the country legitimately arguing that kids should not be in school. Under normal circumstances kids being in school is best for the kids and their parents. Where people are disagreeing is:
- do the risks to the kids, teachers, faculty, staff, and all of their families outweigh the developmental risks of the kids?
- are there provisions that can be put in place to mitigate those risks, such as partial in-person attendance?
- what about developing a more robust remote learning experience? How can we improve upon that? Many teachers already utilize Google Classroom, can that platform be leveraged to assist both in-person and remote learning?

To my understanding, some school districts (i.e. York County) are purchasing Chromebooks, tablets, and/or computers for every kid in the county based on the needs of the age group (e.g. computers for older kids, tablets for younger kids due to the abundance of interactive applications). This is something that all school systems are moving towards in general, however they likely accelerated the timeline a bit. Some schools systems are putting large hotspots in buses and parking them strategically in neighborhoods to handle the internet access problem. I believe other counties are subsidizing in-home internet for families that can't afford it.

The problem is, officials at the Federal level appear to be fighting this tooth-and-nail. Take for instance this recent interview with Betsy Devos. She was completely unwilling to state that school administrators should follow CDC guidelines. She was completely unwilling to state that remote learning is a viable option should the situation require it. She was unwilling to state that schools should close down due to flair-ups. She was unwilling to define the conditions of a flair-up (e.g. number of cases, rates, etc.). She was unwilling to provide guidelines such as 2 days in/3 days remote, send the class home for 10 days if someone shows symptoms, shut the school down if 5 people test positive, etc. THEY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY GUIDANCE, other than to stand their ground and only say that kids have to be in schools, that they don't want to withhold funding, but will still do so. Their only guidance is "do what we say, without justification for the things that we say."

How about the American Academy of Pediatrics having to slightly walk back and re-clarify their recommendations for returning kids to school? This was in a direct response to the extreme approach to this problem at the Federal level.

Again, no one disagrees that the rightful place for kids is in school. Everyone understands that keeping kids out puts a ridiculous hardship on millions of families, many of which are upreared to handle it emotionally, logistically, and financially. The disagreement appears to be on how many kids, teachers, and families people are willing to sacrifice to keep kids in school and their parents at work.

Great post; totally agree with everything. Didn't know Devos was being so obtuse (but not surprised).

I don't think there is anyone in the country legitimately arguing that kids should not be in school.

Anecdotally speaking, I encounter more anti-return-to-school-people than I do anti-mask people. I've talked to a ton of people who think kids should not be (physically) in school under any circumstances. I do think that's naive; remote schooling is not as easy as remote work (children still need some adult guidance) and (as I said above) not everyone has internet. If we can find ways to make internet schooling effective for all, I'm 1000% for it.

Twitter me

I'm not disagreeing with your anecdote. I want to say that up front. I've been kind of semi-actively avoiding listening to local parents "discuss" the subject, and, as of May, I no longer have to worry about it. Yay for me.

I do think it's weird that some parents are so anti-return. I mean, have they never heard of home-school? Easy solution. Not even permanent if they don't want it to be. And aren't most school systems offering online only as an option? Pretty sure that's the case here in NoVA.

Wait, what?

And aren't most school systems offering online only as an option? Pretty sure that's the case here in NoVA.

And the Secretary of Education has been vocal about her displeasure with Fairfax County, which is likely the NoVA county in which you are referring. I think they were one of the first counties to publish their return to school plan.

So just to also add to this part

Dr. Jorge Perez, co-founder of Kidz Medical Services, said it's too early to say how common and severe long-term damage could be from COVID-19, but early evidence suggests some children infected with the virus could have lasting damage.

COVID-19 has shown that some kids developed Kawasaki Disease. So I had Kawasaki Disease when I was I think 4 or 5 years old. I don't remember it much as I was pretty young but I recall I was very ill and in the hospital for a couple weeks. If there is not treatment done and it goes to far there can be lasting damage to the heart. I remember going to up to UVA hospital for several years after that so they could run tests on me. This is really no joke and should be taken pretty seriously given the potential for lasting heart defects.

Being a number skeptic I was looking for how many people under 10 18 Florida has tested. According to the linked article 54,022...which at 31% is 16,746 kids which is a surprisingly larger sample size than I imagined. of <18 y/o

(add if applicable) /s

but cutting out an independent organization whose entire mission is to track infectious diseases...

You do know that the CDC is a federal agency lumped under the department of Health and Human Services, right?

Leonard. Duh.

Okay, great. I made a mistake, you are correct. That doesn't change the fact that this move is questionable at best and likely politically motivated, but that is off-limits on the board and any criticisms should try to be factually based.

The CDC's mission: "CDC increases the health security of our nation. As the nation's health protection agency, CDC saves lives and protects people from health threats. To accomplish our mission, CDC conducts critical science and provides health information that protects our nation against expensive and dangerous health threats, and responds when these arise." That seems to line up PERFECTLY with the problem right now. At no point has anyone had a legitimate reason to question whether the CDC is the correct group for this task.

The new change is to remove an organization uniquely prepared for this situation and assigning its duties to the parent organization that has a significantly larger scope. This appears to put the information in hands that don't deal with it at a micro level on regular basis, adds a delay to information dissemination, and delays action as a result of the data. If you think people are questioning the numbers now, image how useless the data will feel when the numbers have an avoidable delay coupled with a hint of lack-of-confidence. I don't see how this change can achieve whatever results the 'powers that be' want without adding additional chaos to the situation.

I am just a concerned citizen, I do not work in this field. I'm sure there are those on this board who have a much better insight into this situation and the potential implications.

I don't see how this change can achieve whatever results the 'powers that be' want

You don't think it's because the numbers are

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Lol. Where Leonard goes one, he goes all.

Im sure the admin made this move to wrest the data from the CDC deep state and get the truth to the people.

I'm just pointing out that it's all under one umbrella and it's all under an executive branch cabinet post. President Trump could literally drive to Atlanta and fire everybody in the CDC bldg and be within the law.

Leonard. Duh.

Super interesting. And relevant. Since you and I love talking hypotheticals, I want to point out that, hypothetically of course, a sitting president could also pardon murderers convicted of war crimes.

Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

I thought my comment was relevant... since the OP insinuated that the CDC was separate from the HHS.

I don't believe nor did I suggest that the president should fire the CDC... but I think you know that, dude.

Leonard. Duh.

Lmao love the idea that bureaucratic organizations somehow have more conflicts of interest than private ones and are less efficient but also somehow better at pulling off their dishonesty.

I'm not taking the bait.

Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi. Tech, Tech, V.P.I.
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah. Polytech- Vir-gin-I-a.
Ray, Rah, V.P.I. Team! Team! Team!

Omar from "The Wire said it well...

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?"

Leonard. Duh.

This is old news, as in March, IIRC.
Spoke to a hospital admin.
this is an attempt to have digital delivery mechanism rather than paper.
Also, it does not preclude or prevent any other reporting. It is also a standardization attempt. This was way back when they were coordinating things like ventilators and supply requests.

I have no idea why The Hill would try to play this off as something new.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Here is a description of the new system from someone on Reddit. It seems like it does cut down on duplicating work while simultaneously reducing checks and balances. Just because there are convoluted ways to confirm most of the numbers doesn't make it okay to remove transparency. Make of it what you will.

Copying directly from a comment yesterday

I am one of the people that reports to this system.

1) If we don't report to the system we will not receive relief funds or medications

2) There is no method to continue reporting to the old system

We also used to report directly to the state, now the state says they will pull data from HHS. We publish our numbers publicly, as many other hospital systems do. I'll be keeping an eye on official state numbers to see if they match up with what the systems are reporting.

I really, really hope there is no funny business. This new method does eliminate duplication of work, but also eliminates checks and balances.

Edit to address a few questions: The data regarding new cases, inpatient totals, and deaths are public and picked up by local media regularly. This is generally true for any hospital that publishes these data. We also directly report to our local county, so it would be a lot of effort to suppress our numbers from the public. In that sense we do have some checks on the system. My understanding is that groups like Johns Hopkins and 1point3acres scrape state and county reports to capture their numbers independent of those published by the CDC. We are also just one of like 6000 hospitals in the U.S. and unless there is some edict that tells us to stop reporting to the public it will be difficult to hide stats without A LOT of people noticing.

Q's about county data: coronavirus.1point3acres.com has been very useful for tracking local trends. There are others as well.

So stay vigilant because we are literally all in this together.

The state itself has the ability to require the data from the hospitals and pass to the HHS instead of the hospital reporting directly.

The admin people in my family much prefer this system as everybody required a different form and so the same data had to be presented in lots of different ways administrative burden has been greatly reduced. Anecdotal yes but one admin of pharmaceutical type in the Philly area was telling horror stories of having to report daily use of an incredibly large number of different drugs to many different agencies as well as hospital admin at township, county, state and federal levels in government as well as government, all on different forms and a bunch of it on paper. This is just reporting, then there was the billing.

Can you imagine this nightmare? it would get missed frequently because somebody's email was down or the server getting the report was down, etc. This did not cut all that completely but, it cut a lot of the difficulty just because it was now electronic and the same form. Not perfect but better.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"If we could get everybody to wear a mask right now, I think in four, six, eight weeks we could bring this epidemic under control."

-Robert Redfield, Centers for the Disease Control and Prevention Director

https://www.axios.com/cdc-director-masking-coronavirus-dba00f19-4167-43a...

There's nothing political about it. There are no mixed messages. This is from the administration itself. Wear a mask.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Some good news (albeit, still very early)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/health/cornavirus-vaccine-moderna.html

The vaccine, developed by government scientists and Moderna, a biotech company, appeared safe and provoked an immune response in 45 people in a study.

The results are from an early Phase 1 study that was designed to test low, medium and high doses of the vaccine and to gauge their safety and ability to create immunity to the virus. The participants were 45 healthy adults, ages 18 to 55, who received two vaccinations 28 days apart.

After the second shot, all of the participants developed so-called neutralizing antibodies, which can inactivate the virus in lab tests. The levels of those antibodies were similar to those in the upper range in patients who had recovered from coronavirus infections. The vaccine also produced a favorable response involving T-cells, another part of the immune system.

July 27, they will begin Phase 3 tests, involving 30,000 people.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I think it is valuable to frequently look at the larger picture and remind yourself of the good news. While there may be some hot spots, and while there are still many questions about longterm health consequences, and impact to children as schools partially reopen, the deaths are still trending back to a normal baseline.

This chart comes from the CDC website.

The challenge with that is that deaths are a lagging indicator - not a lead. This chart only goes through July 1st, which doesn't capture the huge increase in cases since then. I hope that the lessons learned in April and May in NY on treatment are making an impact on the death rate, but I fear that the price for increasing cases and overwhelmed medical facilities has not been realized yet.

Sure. Cases started rising weeks and weeks ago. So far deaths have not been rising at nearly the same rate. We understand the deadly consequences of moving covid patients to nursing homes. We also know that a large percentage of the new cases is in the younger and healthier population. Yes, the data lags, but what we know right now is that no location is anywhere close to experiencing what NYC experienced. Could that change, of course, but no significant indicators so far. We shall see. My comments are repeatedly aimed at focusing on the positive trends and data in an objective way. Right now it is not rational to promote the idea that Florida and Texas are the next New York. I just don't see that happening.

Took NY State 15 days to go from 200,000 cases to 300,000 cases. During a lockdown. Florida took 10 days, and is "open". The only thing Florida has going for it is a massive hospital capacity. But that will get eaten up quickly at this rate. I hope it doesn't happen, but if hospitals get maxed out, which is when the death rate in NY skyrocketed, Florida can easily turn into the next NY.

Note the direction of spread since early June. I'll say it again, the public policy challenge is how to keep the lower risk folks from endangering the higher risk folks.

just in terms of data presentation, this is pretty helpful. It would also be cool to see a 3d bar graph isometrically with each color converted to a height. Then a slider bar so you could fix an age range and look at number of cases over time or fix a date and look at case distribution across age ranges...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Looks like there were some pretty good rager parties just before June 25.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Before it looked like the CDC was being skipped with data going straight to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Now it looks like it is skipping the HHS and going directly to the Administration? The same Administration which said "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases. They don't want to write that, it's common sense." now controls all the data? Totally on the up-and-up.

Some non-polarizing context... not meant to either sway nor dismay. I just thought this stat was wild...

Total flu tests conducted over the course of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 seasons - 4.47 million

Total COVID tests conducted last week - 4.59 million

Leonard. Duh.

Not too surprising. How many people have ever had a flu test? I haven't even though I've gone to the doctor a few times with the flu. Hell when I was a kid and had strep, I think I had one test done. Most of the time I was just looked at and prescribed bubble gum flavored antibiotics.

Actually a lot of pediatrics will give a flu test to kids who are brought in for flu-like symptoms. If they test positive, they try not to prescribe antibiotics if they can rule out a bacterial infection.

Leonard. Duh.

Not a doctor, but I think flu tests often times aren't given to people who aren't considered high risks. Whether its the flu or some other virus that presents with flu symptoms the treatment is generally the same so there is no point in running the test. I know when I have taken my sick kids to the doctor during the flu season they have never tested for it. Uncomfortable test that might cost you money but won't do anything to change the treatment.

Its almost like one is far deadlier and doesn't currently have a treatment and we're desperately trying to find out who has it to separate them from society to hopefully mitigate the spread

and the other is the flu

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

It is still an eye opening stat to understand the volume of lab work.

Not to start a debate, but, I dont think people respect the flu enough. Mostly because the word flu or flu bug gets thrown around casually by folks that do not actually have the flu. The actual flu can kill at risk people and make the most healthy person feel like they were beaten with a ball bat for nearly a week. Again, I am not starting the debate on the comparison of the two viruses but damn let's not underestimate the flu either.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

To quote a Wake Forest Baptist Hospital nurse practioner I spoke with yesterday...

It's like no other virus or infection besides COVID-19 exists right now.

Leonard. Duh.

Given the NC flu season "ends" in mid-May, and even during the last week they had one unknown case in the state reported, and other viruses typically do not circulate during the summer months, well it is "like" no other virus besides Covid-19 exists right now.

https://flu.ncdhhs.gov/data/documents/flu1920.pdf
https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

There are others besides the seasonal.

My wife sees patients daily with other infections.

Can't get a CT scan right now, very many machines designated COVID only as the disinfecting regimes are incredibly time consuming.

I had an ear infection that ended weeks ago. Pain and an inability to move my jaw, took anti-infammatories and 2 rounds of antibiotics to dissipate.

This is an example of other infection. It's alomst as if people forgot there are other conditions.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I said "viruses typically." Meaning the flu.
I'm sure he put "and infections" but those can happen at any time...An ear infection, sinus infection, staph infection, cut infection, is not the flu...and not a typical viral. They are bacterial.

And it's confirmation bias. Yes, the hospital is seeing an exorbitant number (like they've literally NEVER seen before) of covid-related testing, which dwarfs other testing, so it does seem that way. But I'd imagine during July, they have done zero flu tests in the past 20 years in that hospital. So it become hyperbole.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yeah, nothing to argue about there but what hospital people are telling me, is that they are still very limited in other things they see, to the point of layoffs. and not just payoffs to the medical staff.
For example, I very close professional associate had a spouse laid off that was an accountant for a hospital chain.
They are cutting admin costs to the bone trying to survive with mandates for what they can see and do.

Close relative had a cancer treatment scheduled and was forced to go to a local office rather than the hospital.

It is not so much that there is not some other infection occurring, it's that the other cases are being treated as if they do not exist or are incredibly unimportant,

This is going to be great for the ACC.

it's that the other cases are being treated as if they do not exist or are incredibly unimportant,

Receiving cancer treatment at an office versus a hospital is still receiving treatment. Doesn't make it unimportant or ignoring it like it doesn't exist.
Receiving an antibiotic from an outpatient clinic instead of the ER is the new norm, and what should be done. ER visits are expensive to the visitor and the insurance company. Doesn't mean its being ignored or doesn't exist.
Sending people to off-site doctors offices, outpatient clinics, or med centers is not ignoring it or acting like it doesn't exist.

In my area, between 2015 to 2022 there will have been 3 or 4 hospitals actually close. And treatment-specific clinics and outpatient facilities being built. That's the new norm. That's how medical treatment is being addressed now. This new approach has shifted the work-force, the approach, the make-up of the facilities. All of this just happens to coincide with the Covid outbreak where hospitals are looking to shift and also taking precautions within the walls to contain what they can contain and not cross-contaminate. Think MRSA time on steroids.

When my daughter was born in November, her brothers (who are under 18) couldn't visit her in the NICU because of the hoops to jump thru documenting their immunizations from their regular doctor.)

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Ok, being absolutely butt up adjacent to the industry currently, having over a decade experience in the industry in IT and about a decade adminstratively as well as relatives currently in it up to the neck in dentistry, pharmacy, internal, nursing and surgical, things in the past few months have been focused on the COVID to the detriment of nearly everything else.

My observation from 5 feet away has been in line with the original thought in this string.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

As someone who is a member of a hospital board, has a spouse that works in healthcare, and as someone with a chronic disease - I concur. The amount of vitriol about this issue is staggering. It's as if there's only a side on one extreme and a side on the other extreme. There's a giant grey area that people should dip a toe in, because it likely holds most of the answers we're looking for.

Watching the Twins play a live intersquad game on MLB.TV, and as long as I don't read anything else in this thread or any other news source, life will feel like normal.

maybe I'll start watching the intrasquad matches. I haven't yet, just been reading articles and quotes. But, perhaps it would bring the serenity I desire.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Its amazing how hearing the normal voices from the booth can melt away everything else going on. I also watched part of the ChiSox game yesterday afternoon and outside of the intersquad aspect it felt like I was watching a regular afternoon game in Chicago - the regular broadcast team, empty stands, and I'm pretty sure the Sox still found a way to lose. Normal indeed :-)

The Nationals started piping in stadium noise. Apparently the players like it. I'll have to see how it sounds. I'm pretty skeptical that it would sound good, but if the players like it, maybe it would sound good on a broadcast.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

I got tested for the second time today because I am going on vacation with the family for the next two weeks (it's not Myrtle, so no worries). I could go the rest of my life without doing that test. So uncomfortable.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

Dude that did my test said "If I don't make ya cry, I'm not doing it right!" lol

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

The guy I had yesterday walks up to my car, asks if I had it done before, says "okay, so you know it's uncomfortable" when I said yes, and then proceeds to just dive in. He should have just used a power drill.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

Funny enough. Once someone did use a power drill to get into my sinus.
Jan. 1985. hurt like a bitch.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Did you hold out or give up the secret intel?

This type of operation is done under a local anesthesia and so I was awake and lucid for the whole thing.
This, they forgot to tell me, It was a bit of a surprise.
I chewed out the surgical team.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Was your lobotomy successful?

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

It was not but, they were able to scrape infection from the sinus above my eye and insert tubes so we could flush saline through it for a week and eventually clean it out.

Can you spell ICE CREAM HEADACHE like never before?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This post reads a lot differently out of context.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I've been tested twice as well. First one wasn't so bad, second one made the entire left side of face (sinuses) hurt for about an hour and half. I think it has a lot to do with the aggression and technique employed by your swabber haha.

From the WSJ:

Many people in coronavirus hot spots are now waiting more than a week, and in some cases several weeks, for test results.

Testing-supply shortages and delays can hamstring contact-tracing efforts, complicate decisions on whether to open or close businesses and cloud statistics used to track the virus's spread. It also means some individuals are likely continuing to spread the virus because they either don't yet have a result, were unable to get tested or haven't yet been told that they have been exposed to an infected person.

More testing blunders πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ

The delay further impedes the effort. "We're now talking about something that happened three weeks ago as compared to being right on it as soon as we can," Dr. Kim-Farley said.

As days go on, people are less likely to be able to recall to a contract tracer where they were and who they were with, public-health experts said. At that point, the disease investigators have likely missed the chance to break the chain of transmission.

Twitter me

Who could have possibly foreseen this when the White House moved to shut down 13 testing sites in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Jersey and Texas about 3 weeks ago

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Shut down? Are you talking about the 13 sites that were to transition to state and local control but remain open and of which at least 5 in Texas received an extension and additional resources to make the transition?

Edit - Sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/coronavirus-federal-government-to-end-fu...

Giroir noted that the 13 sites, which will remain open under state and local control, are 28 fewer than the original number of community-based testing sites set up when the Covid-19 pandemic began spreading aggressively in the U.S. in mid-March.

Giroir said that the original 41 community testing sites has been expanded to more than 600 testing sites in 48 states under a federal bundled payment program to pharmacies, and that more than 1,400 other pharmacy sites, primarily run by CVS, are providing tests "through regulatory flexibility empowering pharmacists and facilitating billing and reimbursement."

Giroir told NBC News in a statement that HHS "will continue to increase testing capacity overall, and make it more accessible especially to underserved communities.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/federal-government-to-conti...

Gov. Greg Abbott announced Friday that the federal government has granted his request to extend operations of Community Based Testing Cites across Texas.

The US Department of Health and Human Services told NBC 5 Friday afternoon they will extend support for 14 days for five community testing sites in Texas and that they will also provide additional resources to transition these five locations into fully state-run testing sites.

"Growth of COVID-19 cases is an extremely concerning public health issue. The Trump Administration fully supports the public health needs of all states including the State of Texas as they respond to the recent increase in positive COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations," the HHS said. "We will continue to closely monitor COVID-19 diagnoses and assess the need for further federal support of these sites as we approach the extension date.

SOURCES!!

SOURCES!!

Nooo I was really looking forward to Meac football /s

But seriously gotta think FCS as whole is done along with the MAC and probably the Mountin West. The Sun Belt could probably stick around because their entire season can be bankrolled by being cupcake games for the SEC. Conference USA is in the same boat.

I believe that announcement was made just a few minutes ago. The sauce was correct.

JP

UVA will require students to test negative for COVID-19 before being allowed back on campus and are providing free tests to every student (undergrad and graduate).

Virginia Tech is not requiring students to test negative citing "state and federal laws" that limit what they can require from students. Instead, it is encouraged for students to test negative and to embody Ut Prosim to limit the spread of the disease among themselves.

UVA using that law school. (This is the only thing I've seen LOLUVA do ever I think they are doing the right way.)

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

My company had soft opening with anyone who wanted to come back into the office back before this week, with this past Monday being the mandatory return date for all employees.

On Wednesday night they sent out an email saying that everyone must go back to working remotely.

So...someone tested positive?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Don't have the means to embed at the moment, but just saw a graph showing that excess deaths for the 18 and under demographic have decreased by about the same amount as they've increased for everyone else. If so, that's pretty interesting: it means 1) COVID risk for kids is low (which we sort of already know, I think), and 2) they are still significantly safer staying home for a variety of secondary reasons not directly related to COVID.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Yeah, death risk for kids is low. That is one thing about this virus that hasn't changed (I don't think).

The issue is in their ability to spread it quickly to people who are higher risk because they a) know they're not at "risk" and therefore don't care or take necessary precautions and b) they're asymptomatic/don't go and get tested.

And again, we still really don't know long term effects of this thing. Long term damage to lungs, heart, and the brain are all things that have supposedly been seen in patients. I don't get why we think all kids are going to be totally 100% fine if they go back to school and catch it.

They might be lower but there is still A lot of unknown risk Especially for at risk people which I know Tech has plenty of both in student and staff populations.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

Actual quote from the article by an actual doctor...

but the fact that the individual didn't die from COVID-19...died in the crash. But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don't know the conclusion of that one."

No... we haven't lost out minds at all. All good.

Leonard. Duh.

You've truly cracked the code my man... Praise Jeebus for anecdotal evidence like this and dedicated truth-finders such as yourself... otherwise we'd have rampant voter fraud, welfare queens, Black UN helicopters, maybe even aliens...

Notice you left something out

Earlier this week, the Florida Department of Health sent FOX 35 News a statement that attempted to clarify that a "COVID death" is determined if, "COVID19 is listed as the immediate or underlying cause of death, or listed as one of the significant conditions contributing to death. Or, if there is a confirmed COVID-19 infection from a lab test – and the cause of death doesn't meet exclusion criteria – like trauma, suicide, homicide, overdose, motor-vehicle accident, etc."

So it appears they made a mistake and isn't following the guidelines. Sell your conspiracies elsewhere.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Ok... My bad. That was a wrong reading of your quote.

My original point still stands. A doctor actually said you could argue that COVID-19 played a role in a motorcycle accident.

Leonard. Duh.

No because and I'll say it slowly "would meet exclusion category of trauma death"

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

You're reading it wrong. Trauma, etc are exclusion criteria. If you get hit by a bus, they are not supposed to count you on the COVID scoreboard. Somebody just fucked up. That tends to happen when you overstress your medical system through flagrantly misguided policy, as is the case in Florida.

Right on, my bad.

Leonard. Duh.

Man, you really want this to be a hoax so bad.

Nope. The number of cases, and spread around the world definitely make this a pandemic. It's not a hoax.

My beef has always been with the response.

Leonard. Duh.

The cognitive dissonance required to say:

Pandemic = yes
Response = no thank you

Is really stunning. You have been on all of these threads saying this is all a bunch of fear mongering, that the way the US has responded (which compared to other 1st world countries is pathetic) is too strong of a response, and yet you can come out and agree that this is a pandemic?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.