Virginia Tech vs. Virginia Preview: Smoke, Micah, and Mirrors

High stakes are on the line for the Hokies in this year's hate week battle against Virginia. Virginia Tech can clinch the Coastal Division and a berth in the ACC Championship Game with a win over the Cavaliers. Virginia limps into the battle for the Commonwealth Cup losers of six-straight games. Bronco Mendenhall is tasked to overhaul both football culture and talent in Charlottesville, and it's a big step forward if the first year head coach can guide the Hoos to a road win over the Hokies.

Virginia certainly isn't as bad a team as its 2-9 record would indicate. They move the football and get stops against good football teams, and there are talented players sprinkled about the roster.

Former Bayside HS 4-star recruit Taquan Mizzell (No. 4, SR, 5-10, 195) leads Virginia in rushing (827 yards, 5 TDs) and receptions (51 catches, 406 yards, 2 TDs). Olamide Zaccheaus (No. 33, SO, 5-8, 190) gave the Hokies fits last season as both a slot receiver and an option on jet sweeps. Micah Kiser (No. 53, JR, 6-2, 240) may be the best defensive player tackle to tackle in the ACC. Former Oscar Smith HS blue-chipper Andrew Brown (No. 9, JR, 6-4, 290) has been productive at defensive end this season (1.18 TFL per game ACC No. 9, .55 sacks per game T-No. 12). Former Bayside HS 5-star Quin Blanding (No. 3, JR, 6-2, 215) is an NFL talent as a run support safety and is second only to Kiser in tackles per game (9.82 and 10.91, respectively).

That said, the best way to describe this Virginia football team is as maddeningly inconsistent. Their identity, from defensive alignments to offensive philosophy, seemingly changed from game to game, and the willingness to shake things up spilled over to the quarterback position. Mendenhall benched former starter and ECU transfer Kurt Benkert (No. 6, JR, 6-4, 230) in favor of 2015 starter Matt Johns (No. 15, SR, 6-5, 215).

Mendenhall stressed ball-security issues have been among the damaging and obvious failures of the offense this season. Benkert has thrown 11 interceptions this season, the second most in the ACC behind Clemson's Deshaun Watson (13) going into Saturday's game in Atlanta against the Yellow Jackets (6-4, 3-4).

Of course, Virginia's pass protection has been a mess all season. The Cavaliers, who have lost five consecutive, have allowed 31 sacks in 10 games, the second most in the conference.

The past two games, Benkert has completed 36 of 66 passes (54.5 percent) for 333 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He's been sacked 10 times in the two games, losses to Wake Forest and Miami.

Of course, Johns struggled with interceptions last season. He threw for 2,810 yards and 20 touchdowns, but 17 passes were picked off.

Spacing Tips Virginia's Running Game

Mendenhall brought semblances of an Air Raid offense from BYU to Virginia and sought out Benkert as a transfer because of his experience at ECU. However, Virginia's lack of depth at wideout (only 3 UVA WRs have double-digit catches in 2016) was immediately felt by Benkert and the offensive line. The Air Raid aligns the offensive line with ridiculously wide splits (sometimes as much as four feet). Without receivers breaking open quickly, Benkert took a pounding from teams blitzing on the interior (T-No. 118 sacks allowed 3.18 per game).

As Virginia's season progressed, the offensive philosophy changed to align with the talent available. In particular, the offensive line used significantly smaller splits on some repetitions, while occasionally reverting back to the wide splits for specific types of play calls.

The wide splits spread out the defensive fronts, and for a one-gap defense (like the Hokies'), this widens the space that each defender has to account for. From a wider split formation, Virginia tends to call quick hitting inside zones and isolation plays.

When the offensive line tightens its splits, Virginia tends to run plays on the outside, particularly plays where the o-line uses pin and pull blocking on outside zones.

Tailback Albert Reid was the Cavaliers primary rushing threat on those inside plays. Reid leads Virginia in rushing TDs (6), however Virginia listed him as "out" (upper extremity) on its injury report. Expect Jordan Ellis (No. 10, SO, 5-11, 220) to pick up some of those carries on the inside.

Mizzell will get some work in between the tackles too. Most of his carries attack the edge, but Virginia will align him like a fullback in a diamond pistol formation. Also, Virginia loves to give the ball to Mizzell on an inverted veer look (even though Benkert and Johns have not shown much inclination to keep the ball on read plays). Miami in particular had tremendous success getting penetration from the back-side of running plays because they didn't need to account for the quarterback in the running game.

Virginia quarterbacks relied heavily on Mizzell as a receiver. Against Georgia Tech, Mizzell finished with 6 catches aligned as a split end, a slot receiver, a tailback, and as a H-Back... all on the same drive. He is an excellent route runner and can beat corners along with linebackers and safeties.

From the backfield, Mizzell is dangerous as a deep threat running circle and wheel routes. When Mizzell aligns at receiver, he can isolate against man coverage on the boundary and run curl and dig routes with the best receivers in the ACC. Zaccheaus — who is tragically underutilized in the running game and has only three carries compared to 33 at 7.94 yards a clip in 2015 — is Virginia's second leading receiver (49 receptions, 10.92 YPC, 6 TDs). His size doesn't overwhelm, but he has quick twitch similar to Pitt's Quadrey Henderson. Virginia's quarterbacks love to have their split ends run vertical routes and then have Zaccheaus run quick outs from the slot.

Split end Doni Dowling (No. 7, JR, 6-1, 215) leads Virginia with 600 yards (47 receptions, 4 TDs), and is a vertical and big-play threat.

ONE-HANDED SNAG ALERTThis @UVa_Football TD catch from Doni Dowling is pure excellence. #ACCFootball pic.twitter.com/3mxaEh6nrZ— FOX Sports South (@FOXSportsSouth) November 5, 2016

Keon Johnson (No. 8, SR, 6-3, 215) is productive on quick dig and post routes. Dowling in particular gets targeted on play-action. The Cavaliers love to play-fake an outside zone, then have the slot will go to the flat and draw the nickel outside, and finally throw to Dowling on a slant behind the nickel.

While Mendenhall tabbed Johns as QB1 against the Hokies, UVA's Johns-led offense wasn't efficient in the red zone against Georgia Tech. Benkert is a player similar to current Florida/former Purdue quarterback Austin Appleby — he looks terrific throwing the football, and then he eats a sack, throws a bullet over a receiver's head, or does something to stall a drive. Connor Brewer (No. 16, SR, 6-2, 195) came in for Benkert when the latter struggled against North Carolina. Brewer has experience running read option from his days at Texas and with Rich Rodriguez at Arizona. Given the Hokies' struggles against the read option, I wouldn't be shocked to see Virginia pull a Vic Hall type surprise and give Brewer a look. Johns also has some escape-ability in the pocket that gave Virginia Tech trouble last season.

Cavaliers' Defense is a Mass of Confusion

The Cavalier defense mirrors Steve Fairchild's old Virginia offenses. On film, there doesn't appear to be any particular identity. Week to week, the defensive concepts and alignments changed. Some weeks, the Cavaliers would adopt odd fronts with Donte Wilkins (No. 1, SR, 6-1, 300) as a nose tackle over the center, and Brown over the strong-side tackle. Other weeks, they aligned in 40 fronts with Brown moving from end to tackle and back on the same drives. Outside, young corners Juan Thornhill (No. 21, SO, 6-1, 190) and Bryce Hall (No. 34, FR, 6-3, 200) play soft and keep things in front of them for stretches, and then start pressing.

Virginia's success mirrors their changing philosophy. Justin Thomas beat Virginia's secondary (particularly their safeties) deep for big plays at several key moments last week. Meanwhile, Oregon had tremendous success by running plays designed to look like interior runs. Then, as the edge blockers sealed Kiser and the other linebackers inside, the Ducks backs would bounce outside similar to Travon McMillian's long touchdown against Tennessee. Virginia was able to contain Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina for stretches. Ultimately as offensive coordinators get a grasp where they have weaknesses and the offense starts to stall out, the defense has cracked regularly, especially late in games.

How can Virginia Tech ensure the outcome is a Lucky No. 13?

It has been a rough season in Charlottesville, and Virginia's players, particularly their seniors, could easily approach the game with a "let's get this over with" attitude. If this wasn't such a passionate rivalry with bragging rights back home during the holidays at stake, their tent could easily fold.

I don't expect it to happen. Mizzell and Zaccheaus will be matched up against Mook Reynolds, Tremaine Edmunds, Terrell Edmunds, Anthony Shegog, and Andrew Motuapuaka at moments throughout the game, and both players are really tough threats to cover in space. In the past, the Hokies did an excellent job of stopping the inside zone game of Air Raid teams when they spread out. However, if Virginia Tech's linebackers can't get into the right position and tackle one-on-one, there often won't be a second level to cover their mistakes due to coverage responsibilities.

The Hokies offense has struggled when defenses take away their bread and butter plays and can show multiple looks. Any lack of focus or poor execution could but the Hokies' 12-game winning streak in jeopardy.

The winning formula is one that would make Frank Beamer smile. Virginia's two kickers have only attempted nine field goals on the season and have made just four (44.4%). If the Hokies' defense and the special teams can deliver throwback efforts, an offense that plays mistake-free football should lead Virginia Tech to a victory and a visit to Orlando.