There are many reasons to hate UVa, but let me give you one more. As my father finished his undergraduate work in college he was preparing to go to law school at UVa, where he had been accepted and was enrolled. At that time we were at war in Vietnam, and many young men were being drafted to serve and honorably did so whether they wanted to or not. My father was among them the summer before he was to start at UVa, and instead of starting his law degree he went overseas as a non-voluntary member of the US Army.
We almost, almost, worked ourselves into having an offensive advantage over a team. Sadly, it didn't happen. Maryland enjoys a slight advantage when they're on defense, and UVa's defense is the only thing stopping Mike London from handing out speeding tickets in the 757 again.
Raise your hand if you thought BC would score 34 on us...anyone? Anyone?
The difference between last week and this week is that last week we wanted the numbers to be right, while this week we're hoping they're wrong.
Here's how we compare both in terms of computer rankings and predictions:
I was going to begin by explaining how it's really not that uncommon for a 13.5-point underdog to win. How statistically we were the better team, and how almost any number but the score showed a clear Hokie victory. But no one's going to feel better after reading a bunch of stats that make it look like we won when we didn't.
A positive thing about having an offense that barely cracks the top 100 is that it takes a really bad performance against a bad defense to bring it down much further, and even a 10-point showing against Duke doesn't do much damage. We remain somewhere around 95th-100th in offense by most statistical rankings, which is pretty terrible. Rather than hammer on the negative, I'll just say that we're actually not bad at methodical drives (percentage of drives with 10 or more plays), mostly as a result of a Logandozer that can pick up a few yards running on almost any play.
Beyond that I think it's best that we move on to defense.
Having a sufficient sample size, I'm now able to dive a little deeper into the personalities of each team as I preview them from a statistical perspective...but first a tribute to our defense. Statistically of course.
Football Outsiders uses two rating systems—S&P+ (which I use for overall team ratings in previews) and FEI (an efficiency-based method). This week, these are the FEI top 5 defenses:
- Virginia Tech (-0.926)
- Stanford (-0.779)
- Alabama (-0.739)
- Michigan State (-0.672)
- Missouri (-0.661)
Who has a cavalier first down or quack quack quack winning this Saturday? Post your predictions,commemts, drink of choice, and outlook for the cavman after there HUGE win LOL.
Ok, I'm sitting in class right now, wondering about our basketball team. I'll admit to not knowing a ton about basketball, but there are some statistics out there that are pretty telling about our basketball team. We all have certain notions about how our team plays, and I was surprised by some stats, and not so surprised by others. The stats come from sites that I cite, so they are correct, but my own math is coming from what I know of statistics....a course I didn't understand much in, so bear with me there.
Here's something I don't do too often around here: basketball statistics. After the Clemson game I followed up on a hunch that I've had since the middle of the season, teams shot much better than their season average against us from downtown.
3FGVT% - 3FGS% is the money column. It's the difference between a team's three-point percentage against Virginia Tech and its season average. A positive number indicates a team shot better from behind the arc against Tech than they did over the course of the season (through 1/27).
Brian Fremeau, publisher of the FEI Ratings in college football and writer for Football Outsiders, has posted "game splits" for every game this season athttp://www.bcftoys.com/results/. What are game splits you ask? In short it's a statistical way to break up the total score difference in a game into contributions from the offense, defense, and special teams (in short...let's not get into the statistical details).
Just thought it was interesting thinking of a few records up for grabs.
Marcus Davis is 72 yards away from Andre Davis's single season record and is 109 yards away from being VT's first thousand yard WR in a year.
Despite LT's very disappointing year he's 217 yards away from the 3rd 3,000 passing yard year in VT history and 230 yards away from matching his total last year. LT will easily move to 3rd in all time career passing list with a 107 passing effort. If LT gets a total of at least 172 yards he breaks his own record for total offense in a season. LT has already account for the most total plays in a season.