Hyperbole aside, Virginia Tech's matchup against North Carolina is the biggest road game for Tech since 2011. The Hokies hit their bye week following back-to-back blowout victories over East Carolina and Boston College. Meanwhile, North Carolina had little downtime after two nail-biting victories over a dangerous Pittsburgh squad and blue-chip laden Florida State.
Saturday's game is replete with storylines. North Carolina handed a loss to Frank Beamer in his final home game last season. The Hokies and Justin Fuente face their first true road game of the season. Both teams are putting up blistering offensive numbers. Hurricane Matthew's impact on the south atlantic coast could provide challenging weather conditions.
Perhaps the biggest storyline is how the weaknesses of both teams align. The Tar Heels have one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, while the Hokies run game has sputtered at different points early in the season. The only dent in the Hokies' defensive scheme has been some vulnerability (exploited by Tennessee and East Carolina) against vertical route concepts, and North Carolina's receivers have generated a boatload of big plays running the dreaded "Verts". How each team mitigates the deficiencies in these respective areas will likely decide the football game.
How to Run on the Worst Run Defense in the ACC
Much has been made about North Carolina having the worst rushing defense in the ACC. The Tar Heels have given up 236.8 yards per game on the ground, and 5.02 yards per carry thus far this season.
UNC's early season schedule contributed mightily to those ugly numbers. Few teams have played a rogues gallery of rushing attacks comparable to the Tar Heels' slate. Nick Chubb (222 yards), James Conner (66), and Dalvin Cook (140) represent a murder's row of power rushers that would present huge problems for most defensive coordinators.
Against Pitt, North Carolina actually did a good job of containing Conner on downhill running plays. On this play, Pitt runs a power to the left. The Panthers attempt to block down on DE Mikey Bart (No. 45, SR, 6-3, 270) with the tight end. The fullback kicks out SAM LB Cayson Collins (No. 23, SR, 6-1, 235). Finally, the right guard pulls and leads up on Isaiah Ford's former Trinity Christian Academy teammate, mike linebacker Andre Smith (No. 10, SO, 6-0, 235).
Bart does a solid job of resisting the TE's down block. Smith (who is terrific playing downhill and in pursuit) fills the hole, avoids the block, and drives Conner backwards. Where North Carolina struggles is when teams get on the edge and use misdirection. Pitt had tremendous success using quick jet sweeps. Florida State copied Pitt's strategy. Jet sweeps were a big part of the Seminoles' game plan early, and later FSU found room with outside zones and powers to get on the edge.
North Carolina flips their defensive ends based on the strength of the defense. Bart plays to the running strength of the formation. Bart is a persistent pass rusher who keeps his feet moving and eventually slides off blocks to get coverage sacks. Against the run, he can effectively be blocked even by tight ends that use good technique. Weak-side DE Tyler Powell (No. 95, JR, 6-4, 290) was dominated by both Pitt and Florida State.
North Carolina often crashes their ends inside to eat up blockers with the hopes that Smith, Collins, and the safeties can make the tackle in space. This play perhaps best demonstrates why spilling the football to the safeties has not worked well this season. Pitt runs a jet sweep to the left. Instead of UNC's offensive line zoning to the left, they zone to the right side.
The zone step away from the run completely messes up Smith's key as the middle linebacker. He steps hard to his left to mirror the offensive line even though both running backs and the jet sweep motion is going to his right (our left). Without even being blocked, UNC's best front seven defender is out of the play.
Powell (aligned outside of the left tackle) does a good job of keeping his outside shoulder free. However, when he meets contact from the left tackle, Powell's feet completely die.
To the field, North Carolina's edge players struggle to get off their blocks. The Heels play a ton of off-man and cover 3 with their corners, in other words their corners are either chasing wide receivers or playing very deep. UNC's safeties are asked to come up and make plays. Yet, time and again on film those guys were ate up by blockers. Pitt WR Quadree Henderson is nearly fifteen yards into the secondary before approaching contact.
I expect Tech's run game plan to mirror the one employed against Tennessee. North Carolina has a tendency to over pursue. The combination of misdirection and the ease with which previous opponents effectively sealed the Tar Heel defensive ends inside would suggest the Hokies establish the jet sweep early, and then run some zone counters (much like Travon McMillian's long touchdown against Tennessee) to capitalize on UNC's over-pursuit.
North Carolina's Offense — Push it (Vertically) to the Limit
At first glance, it is difficult to know where to begin with North Carolina's offense. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 10, JR, 6-3, 220) has thrown 13 touchdowns, completed 76% of his passes for 1,711 yards, and has not thrown an interception. Running backs Elijah Hood (No. 34, JR, 6-0, 220) and T.J. Logan (No. 8, SR, 5-10, 190) are two of the best tailbacks in the ACC. Lengthy wide receivers Mack Hollins (No. 13, SR, 6-4, 210) and Bug Howard (No. 84, SR, 6-5, 210) have a track record of making big catches, including Howard's game winner against Pitt. Austin Proehl (No. 7, JR, 5-10, 175) is a reliable intermediate target. The offensive line is a veteran group that has several years of success. On paper, the only weakness is Larry Fedora's stubborn refusal to establish Hood and Logan in big games.
With all the aforementioned options at their disposal, when the Tar Heels really need to move the football, slot receiver Ryan Switzer (No. 3, SR, 5-10, 185) is the weapon of choice. Through five games in 2016, Switzer has 47 catches for 587 yards and 2 TDs. He has amazing burst and the ability to change directions in a phonebooth. Fedora maximizes Switzer's ability by aligning him in the slot against safeties and linebackers and attacking the defense with vertical route concepts.
On this play, the Tar Heels run vertical routes off play-action. Florida State is in a cover 2 defense.
Both Switzer and Howard are aligned to the field and get vertical. The Seminoles have one deep safety to that side. The safety angles out on Howard. Once Switzer slips behind the zone coverage of the nickel, he bends back to the middle of the field. This creates more distance between Switzer and the safety help. The nickel knows he is in trouble and tries to turn and run with Switzer, and Switzer leaves him in the dust.
Switzer excels at pushing vertical and then breaking routes into open space based on the coverage. He gets so many touches (T-4th nationally with 9.4 receptions per game) that defenses have a tendency to over-focus on Switzer.
On this play, North Carolina is aligned in a trips formation to the field. Switzer breaks his vertical route to the boundary corner route. Watch how Pitt safety Terrish Webb (No. 2) fixates on Switzer and gets spun around.
As the safety drifts towards Switzer, North Carolina attacks the lone remaining corner with a vertical route by Hollins and a freeze route by Howard. When Howard checks up, the corner freezes for a second and then turns to try and run down Hollins. The safety is out of position and Hollins has a ton of inside leverage. An underthrow by Trubisky makes the catch a little dodgier than it needs to be, but this is still a relatively easy touchdown.
North Carolina will work these vertical routes throughout the game. If defenders play looser man coverage, it opens up intermediate crossing routes, slants, and the screen game. If defenders choose to press, Fedora counts on Switzer to beat coverage with his quickness and Howard and Hollins to win jump balls. Fedora will also use formation to get ideal match ups. He will use his alignment to dictate how the Hokies align throughout the day. At some point, he will find an alignment where Switzer is one-on-one with Tremaine Edmunds, Terrell Edmunds, or Andrew Motuapuaka. Those will be nervous moments for Bud Foster and the Hokies defensive staff. Foster will do everything he can to get Mook Reynolds and Chuck Clark covering Switzer. And even those matchups will be tough for the Hokies to win because Switzer is one hell of a player.
Comments
Thanks French. It made my morning to see this posted when I started TKPing. Although I must admit while I was feeling all warm and fuzzy at the beginning of it, after reading the part about the Heels' offense, I got a little skeered. What are our chances of getting enough pressure on Trubisky to disrupt these vertical plays?
Looking at what UNC has faced so far I think VT's ability to get pressure on Trubisky with the front 4 will be the key. I'm not sure how much Foster will be able to confuse Trubisky with multiple looks and scheme but the UNC QB needs to be running for his life for VT to keep the opposing offense under wraps. Previous games lead me to believe that can happen but this is certainly the biggest test of the defense through the early part of the season.
This is a good offensive line, but Ekanem had his way with Spain, the left tackle for UNC, last season. This OL group has not run the football as effectively as they were running the ball coming into this game last season (although TJ Logan had some impressive runs against Florida State.) If the Hokies can make UNC one dimensional, that ups the odds tremendously. Once they are one dimensional, everything hinges on Facyson and Alexander not getting beaten on vertical 50/50 balls and the group of Clark, Edmunds, Reynolds,and Stroman (who I think will play in Shegog's place in the dime because of Switzer and Proehl's presence) at least containing Switzer.
For the most part, they did a good job on Switzer last year. When Switzer had success, it came off play action due to the safeties selling out to stop Hood. The front group is much better at stopping the run this year.
Why do I know this has a lot to do with Mihota being the starter?
French = Football Nostradamus
All joking aside it is the entire line that is improved. The top 4 tackles have been awesome so far this season which has really helped with keeping them fresh.
Agreed on both fronts- but watch the last rushing TD by UNC last year and then tell me Mihota isn't better vs the run than Dadi... he and Clarke were detriments at key moments vs UNC.
Thanks for the writeup, French. Seems like for every pro you can find a con in this matchup. We're going to learn a lot about this team but I'm really interested in seeing Fuente in a close chess match. I think he's got the edge on Fedora, who seems to make some pretty bad in game calls. Also, this is the type of game that can be dictated by turnovers or special teams. How do their special teams look this year? Lastly, does NC get the edge in the rain because of Hood and Logan or do we get it cause Bud's defense?
Normally I would say yes that UNC would have the edge with their RB's. However, given Fedora's tendency to get away from the running game I think it actually gives VT the edge.
I'd say special teams is a wash.
I hope that's not a pun by Saturday afternoon.
I'd give them a slight edge in the kicking game until Joey can hit one from 50+. He has plenty of leg, I feel like it is almost a mental game at this point from that range.
We got a game
I just hope our kicker is more dependable thank the nolie one
This day's off to a great start and I'm hoping Saturday works out beautifully in all senses of the word. My conditioning from years of Tech offense makes my gut queasy about our chances but Bud has a great track record of messing up an opponent's great stat line (I seem to recall Lane Kiffin's Vols having their season sack total double in our bowl game).
I'm cheering for another game for our boys scoring whenever they are on the field; offense, defense, or special teams.
Let's get in on the Coastal race with a big win!
In the first Switzer clip, he just casually gets behind the LB and the safety is practically in the end zone. It seems like this type of situation would be easy to prevent.
Is it really that easy for him to get open, and will tackling to prevent YACs prove to be as important as breaking up the pass in the first place?
I'm continuing to feel our offense is going to have to win this one.
Aw, look at that I-form that Pitt uses. How quaint.
Not gonna lie, half the time I miss the I-form. Especially when it involved Tyrod running play-action.
If it becomes a power game due to weather, I like our chances for 3 reasons:
1. Our dl
2. Their dl
3. Evans
I don't know about that m8. You're only pointing out our strengths. You are neglecting our weaknesses which are UNC's strengths...
Aside from Evans when plays break down, we can't run the ball for sh*t. Our only hope if it becomes a thunderstorm game is to give Evans the ball on designed QB runs a lot at the start of the game so that when we run the option the DE's and Linebackers key on him opening up the pitch.
Evans success on the ground will open up the otherwise terrible running game we have. Honestly, I can't believe our backs have performed so poorly this year. If its a rainy muddy game our lack of run game from the backs is going to hurt us.
I know our run game hasn't been on par with the top 20 but to say it's terrible is hyperbole...we're still averaging just under 150 yards a game on the ground. It's not great...but it's not as awful as you're making it out to be
I understand why you feel that way and on the surface it makes sense. The reality of our current offense is we are not relying on running the ball only by backs and only between the tackles. And for once during this lunar eclipse cycle we have an offensive play caller that implements a sound strategy. I really think Teller wears some boys out today. Need Conte to show up on the inside.
And also, they have that fashion conscious argyle field border. I think that gives us the edge.
Just keep scoring. Just keep scoring.
That's what he said, ahhh I mean that's what FU said.
From Brady Quinn:
No. 25 Virginia Tech at No. 17 North Carolina: Two of the nation's most efficient passing games go head-to-head in ACC play. The Tar Heels are looking to keep their momentum going after upsetting Florida State last week in a stunning finish with a game-winning 54-yard field goal. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is in rebuilding mode -- trying to maintain the legacy Frank Beamer left behind while building a new culture under first-year coach Justin Fuente. One thing is for certain: The Hokies have played complimentary football this far into the season, boasting one of the nation's most efficient passing attacks along with a top-10 defense.
Meanwhile, UNC has quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who has emerged as a dark horse for the Heisman Trophy race. This, of course, is contingent upon another strong showing against a top-25 opponent. If UNC wants to make a play for the ACC title, it can't afford to drop another game this season. I believe the Tar Heels win a dog fight with Trubisky and wide receiver Ryan Switzer making a statement. Pick: North Carolina
But.. I mean.. It's Brady Quinn..
Where is this free football that you speak of?
Yeah, 'cause the loss against Georgia really hurt their ACC standings.
Do people even fact anymore?
He means the offense and defense
complimentcomplement each other. He says as much in the same sentence.complimentary =/= complementary
Yeah, I get that it's a vocabulary error. I'm saying by context clues, the meaning is evident.
I kinda feel like you're missing the joke....
?
It's been a rough morning.
I didn't even know those were two different words with separate meanings. So don't feel too bad. And thanks TKPer for continuing my higher education
No doubt!
My students always ask me on quizzes and tests, "does spelling count?" I tell them "if it changes the word entirely, I'm marking it wrong."
I know what Quinn meant, but misspelling in (even barely) journalistic media is a bit of a sticking point of mine.
edit - I am not a smart man
We know
this is bloody savage
We know.
Fuente- "Hey Bud, I really like what you've done with the defense."
Foster - "Right back atcha Coach Fu!"
seems pretty complimentary to me.
Point granted.
I'm pretty sure we were giving them out for free during the Tennessee game.
"These two teams are both really efficient passing the ball. Only *this* team has a top-10 defense.... but *that* team is currently ranked higher, so I think they'll win."
#Analysis
Their offense is much higher in the rankings than ours though, so it's not like it is a wash in that department.
UNC's passing offense has shined against better teams than VT has played. Our D held ECU under 20. If we can hold UNC under 24, we have one hell of a chance. But, don't discount how good their passing offense is.
I still don't know why their rushing offense looked so bad against Pitt. But, FSU was a nice elixer. FSU is terrible defensively.
To be fair Pitt is 6th nationally in rushing defense. Seems like a lot of teams struggle running the ball, though I'm far from an expert on why that would be. Perhaps its more because their pass defense is horrendous.
Do you think Trubisky is more of a problem than Williams? Williams was super mobile if inconsistent, which is the type of qb we seem to struggle with
Great point. I think mook has a chance to shut down switzer if switzer lines up in the slot. I also think we will be able to score on them. And our zone look is much better against those short dump passes
As long as Mook and the rest of team don't follow their plays up with dumb dead ball fouls. Need to be disciplined after the whistle this week.
Yeah, if UNC commits to Hood and Logan (especially in bad weather), that's an advantage over us. I don't feel we can run it as well as they do, although Evans makes up for our traditional tailback running program somewhat.
Notre Damers don't care about defense.
Brady Quinn should stick to what he knows
* Trying to maintain composure while sitting in the green room waiting to here his name called on draft day in a super awkward moment
* making myoplex commercials before ever starting an NFL game
* Not being good enough to start for the Cleveland Browns
Pretty sure offensively he knows more than anyone on this board to be fair. You don't get to that level without having an in-depth understanding of the game/schemes.
I say again, good sir. He was not good enough to start for the Browns /s.
"Quinn the Eskimo"?
Im betting once it gets good and wet Fedora will be so distracted trying to see his wet t-shirt contribution in a reflection he will forget about the game.
Joking aside, that man is yoked!
I wish i was yoked. It looks really cool!!
via GIPHY
this is one of the stranger things I've seen lately
The key to countering Hollins, Howard and Switzer is pretty clear: drive Trubisky two feet into the ground early and often. If we can get pressure with a four man rush, we're going to win. That's my call.
I agree with that. If we need to consistently bring more guys to get pressure, we're going to be in a world of hurt. I'm optimistic about our offense's ability to put up points on their defense (hopefully this is a game where our RB's shine), but I think we're going to have to put up 35+ points to put this one away.
35? I wanna drop 80 on these motherfuckers.
So do I, I just don't want us to need 80.
If eshiben's weather predictions hold up, we may actually be able to drive him 2 feet into the ground.
It's a post-holer. It digs holes for posts.
drive Trubisky two feet into the ground early and often.
If we can get pressure with a four man rush, we're going to win.
As we saw when the Giants beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, pass rush cures a ton of ills.
Broncos too. Good Lord that was insane.
Reminds me of when we did this to UNC a few years back. Sacks all around. I seem to remember a UNC QB having tampons in his nose and looking mighty scared of the defensive line.
That was Louisville in the Gator Bowl (for the tampons). About 1 minute in on the video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmW4rcwy2ok&sns=em
Yes, but TJ Yates also needed some sideline flow management as well.
Edit to add picture for fun
Yates is what I was remembering. I googled like hell and couldn't find video/pictures of the tampons.
...whatever floats your boat, man.
We've done a pretty good job of neutralizing their weapons at receiver the last few years, but I am very interested to see how effectively we can take advantage of their lackluster run defense. The jet sweep success against UNC makes me feel better, but I still have concerns about our interior line consistently winning at the point of attack on inside runs.
In the headliner photo, Switzer has some of the oddest sweat stains I've ever seen.
This has been a point of contention amongst my friends. Those stains form perfectly like that on many, many, teams jerseys. It's either A) different fabric that is meant to collect the sweat into a confined area or B) different color fabric. It can be both.
it's certainly much more pronounced on Switzer than on 88 in the background
This would support option A. I've noticed as well that the sizes are not always equal, but when they are very obvious (Switzer) they form such distinct edges that it seems like an intentional stitching of fabric to collect sweat in those areas.
They are made to wick moisture away from the areas of the jersey that make the most contact with the football to help keep the ball dry and therefore less apt to fumble.
lol it's the jersey type . I've seen quite a few like that
Worth noting.... UNC is still talking about the win over Florida St. They're still talking to the media down here about it, they're having their kicker still do radio shows and spots on the local news about what happened last week, and he just had a segment on ESPN SportsCenter this morning about last week.
They're not focused on us at all.
Can't not read this meme in his voice.
I promise you they are very focused on VT. Amazing how much people believe everything the media feeds them! Especially SECESPN
I did love watching that kicker do the chop to all those F$U fans. He can enjoy his 15 minutes of fame. Let UNCheat get comfortable before they get hit by a hurricane...and I think there may be some weather down there too.
That actually was pretty funny and he had some gusto doing that.
Brought back memories of Kinzer in the '86 Peach Bowl.
https://youtu.be/79--4nc3H44?t=5m40s
EDIT: evidently I don't know how to embed this...
I got you
Thanks for the assist!!!
I was able to be at that game after graduating in '86, such a sweet memory. Kinzer was money. I think that was his last kick as a Hokie as well, IIRC. Great way to finish a collegiate football career.
I wasn't alive
I saw on their twitter feed where ESPN sent a camera crew to follow the kicker around campus one day this week. Talk about a distraction.. I wouldn't allow that shit if I were Fedora.
Trubiskys first 2 ints that we get will be the difference maker in why we will win the game.
The other two will just be icing on the cake.
What about the ones the backup throws in garbage time? Those will be nice too.
LPD = interceptions = icing on cake = #TeamCake
So that means Bud Foster is #TeamCake.
QED
looks like fuzzy math to me...
LPD=interceptions=I scream=ice cream =#TeamIceCream
Most recent LPD gave up 17 points = one field goal and 2 touchdowns = 3 points and 14 points = 3.14 = #TeamPieUsesRealMaths
The third and fourth are just icing, huh?
Its going to be a tough match-up for sure.
Tall receivers who can come down with jump balls has not been good for us in the past.
Slot receivers/Play makers who can make people miss is still a problem for us, even with as little of yards ECU put up on us outside of three plays, Zay Jones still had 10 receptions for 117 yards.
I like our chances, but I wont be surprised if UNC gets some explosive plays on us. I think heavy rain and wind would actually benefit us more, I like our run defense against their run offense. But then again we have had fumbling problems this season so....hmm.......................maybe I dont like the rain...................................................................
French, what's of particular concern as far as defending against UNC?
What's the word on Hood? He missed the 2nd half of FSU game with a concussion. That would be a big loss.
Per Fedora at the press conference yesterday:
On if Elijah Hood will be ready to play Saturday against Virginia Tech: "I expect him to, yes."
http://augustafreepress.com/press-conference-unc-football-coach-larry-fe...
But if it's for a concussion I wonder how much playing time he will see a week later. I mean that's not an injury that you want to compound obviously and especially for running back who IS going to be getting hit in the head with a lot of force. Especially against our DL. I mean a week is pretty short. Although, I'm no doctor or expert on concussions so I really have no idea what I'm talking about except that I know getting hit in the head again after a concussion is not good.....especially soon after a concussion.
at the same time, Bud's defense has put up some amazing performances against good offenses in bad weather (minus last year's ECU game.) If they can dictate where Trubisky goes with the football, that will help matters.
Due to past experiences I don't see our run game vastly improving against a sub-par run defense. I don't know how many times we would play a team that just got ran over by little sisters of the poor to only gain maybe 100 yds rushing for the day when we play. We haven't been able to get a consistent running game going against anyone up the middle.
However, vunerable against the jet sweep you say?? Hopefully we can get yds there because we know how we love the jet sweep. Screens will also be interesting as well. I hope Juice and/or McMillan have breakout game and out DL can get consistent pressure with the front 4. It will definitely be interesting. I think a wet game favors us due to our defense.
I think the speed option is going to be crucial. Fuente has been setting up the option look and misdirection off the option all season. If UNC isn't disciplined on D, Fu and Corny are going to drink the fuck out of UNC's milkshake.
Frank does love a milkshake and a soak.
speaking of DRINKing...
I personally hope we see a lot of prime time, top shelf Dragon Juice this weekend.
Dragon Juice running wild
If you haven't read this story on Evans it's definitely work a look. A lot stood out to me on what kind of person Jerod is in addition to his focus on goals.
Here's the link to the story
Evans moved to second on the depth chart behind Kyle Postma, who went on to sign with Houston. When Postma was injured, Evans got his first start in the conference semifinals and tied a program record with six touchdown passes. The following week, he threw for four touchdowns and ran for two more as Trinity Valley claimed the championship.
When it came time for the team's bowl game, Postma was healthy. Evans knew he had to step aside.
"Jerod knew he was coming back for another year," Patterson said. "He said, 'Coach Patterson, I want Postma to play in the game. Don't rotate us, play Postma so he can get recruited, so he can get out. It's going to be my deal next year.'"
That's pretty rare for a kid who wanted to play quarterback his entire life
Two things:
I think one key to stopping them is to play physical and jam their receivers at the line of scrimmage to throw off their timing and allow us to get to the quarterback. Of course, it helps to have the officials looking the other way a la the Clemson game when they straight up mugged Louisville receivers all day while barely drawing any flags.
Hearing Clemson fans claim the officiating was against them after the game made my blood boil.
I gotta think that heavy rain is going to prevent some of those UNC deep balls from being thrown and even when they are, won't it affect accuracy?
heavy wind would definitely be a factor.
Yep. Heavy rain with 18mph wind speed (increasing slighty throughout the afternoon) will make deep routes dodgey at best. That goes for both teams. Gusty conditions could make it even worse. Luck will play a larger factor than I'd like today.
Hey french, pretty certain weather will be a big impact this game, do you think it flips the cards in either teams favor to increase difficulties in the passing game? I mean it seems like both offenses are reliant on a ton of moving pieces and misdirection, and if you dont have to respect the throw as much due to wind who do you think that helps? Also please correct me if im totally wrong on weathers impacts
I think rain helps UNC's passing game more than it helps VT's. Trubisky has a huge arm and can drive the ball, plus Switzer knows where he is going. Our DBs don't. If the QB can get the ball to the WRs, rain always benefits the offense.
I agree if the QB can get the ball to the WR. But we're talking about hurricane type rain and decent wind gusts. Even after wiping the ball and QB gloves between each play, that ball will be soaked by the time its snapped so the QB has to fight the elements with his arm and his hands. I'd call the weather's effect on the game for both teams a wash.
We've got a pretty good route runner playing for us as well
As a db and wr I felt that it was easier to run a route rather than defend a receiver. As a receiver you know exactly where you will be going where as a defender you have to make quick reactions which is where you see a lot of loose footing and players falling down.
Wind is what will hurt the passing games.