Staff Predictions

With the start of the Hokies' football season only 12 days away, now is as an appropriate time as any for us scribes to make our humble predictions. Eric, Josh and I are going to pick both the outcome of each game as well as assign a confidence of win percentage. The latter is an idea inspired by Bud at Tomahawk Nation. It's an easy concept, basically we'll assign the percentage chance (0-100%) of Tech winning a given game and then derive our expected wins for the season by adding up the confidences and dividing by 100.

  Confidence & Outcome
Date Opponent Location Joe Eric Josh
Mon, Sept 6 VS Boise State FedExField, Landover, Md. 80% W 50% L 65% W
Sat, Sept 11 James Madison Lane Stadium 100% W 100% W 100% W
Mon, Sept 18 East Carolina Lane Stadium 95% W 99% W 90% W
Sat, Sept 25 @Boston College Chestnut Hill, Mass. 75% L 65% W 40% L
Sat, Oct 2 @North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C. 90% W 85% W 80% W
Sat, Oct 9 Central Michigan Lane Stadium 100% W 100% W 100% W
Sat, Oct 16 Wake Forest Lane Stadium 95% W 99% W 85% W
Sat, Oct 23 Duke Lane Stadium 95% W 99% W 95% W
Thu, Nov 4 Georgia Tech Lane Stadium 75% W 66% W 80% W
Thu, Nov 14 @North Carolina Chapel Hill, N.C. 45% W 55% W 85% W
Sat, Nov 20 @Miami Miami Gardens, Fla. 40% L 45% L 35% L
Sat, Nov 27 Virginia Lane Stadium 99% W 99% W 75% W
Expected Wins based on Confidence: 9.89 9.62 9.30

We each provided brief explanations backing up our picks where we felt necessary.

Joe

  • Boston College's offensive line is burly and bruising and they'll win the war in the trenches. Our young linebackers won't be able to compensate and make plays in traffic. It'll be a close game down to the final possession.
  • Our series against Miami is stuck in a stalemate. Neither team has been able to string together a bunch of wins against the other in quite some time. They're more talented than we are on paper, but we're better coached. It'll be another close lose, but I think they take care of business at "home".

Eric

  • In general I think no team in any BCS conference is going undefeated and we might be looking at a 2007 situation where a 2 loss team plays in the BCSCG. VT's flaws will be pass blocking, defensive line and whip linebacker.
  • BSU will attack the whip from the get go and will get Winslow on 1 on 1 situations. The game will be low scoring and I think running is going to be tough by both teams. It's the kind of game Bud Foster wants to use to prove how good he and VT are as a program. I am sold on the Boise's veterans and how well they are coached.
  • I know VT plays poorly in Boston, and even with a very good offensive line and running back, I just don't think Boston College's passing game will make Bud come out of his 8 man fronts. I love VT's wide receivers in this game and unless BC finds a pass rush, I think they have a great day.
  • If there is one coach that has Bud's number it's CPJ. Both will bring their A-game given the extra time to prepare. What Bud doesn't have is Iowa's or LSU's defensive line. VT has had as good success as anyone against algroh's 3-4 defense, but they will need a 2nd TE to step up. That way VT can balance the line and have a hat on everyone in the front 7. Don't be fooled, as long as John Graves is healthy expect him to play like Charles Jefferson from Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
  • Since we don't know what is going to happen with agent gate, I have to guess. I think DT Marvin Austin is done for the year. That will certainly help the offensive line some, but their D is damn good, even if the sum is slightly less than the parts. WR Greg Little, is their best and maybe only offensive playmaker. UNC will not road grade the VT DL this year.
  • Da U has maturing talent and wants revenge. For VT it's the third game of a ridiculous four game ACC stretch run.

Josh

  • Boston College is the first real road game for a young defense, against a team that takes VT more seriously than any other game on its schedule. Young defenses feed off crowd noise and enthusiasm, and it won't be there for them against a team that is always physically tough.
  • I don't worry about UNC nearly as much as some. VT has a solid record of delivering vengeance when due, and after last year's Thursday night debacle (in which Frank Beamer and Bud Foster got outcoached by Butch Davis, recruiting king but no one's gameday genius) it is most certainly due. The defense will have grown into its role by then; I have a very tough time believing that UNC's lightweight offense puts more than 10 on the board. With some Tech offenses, that wouldn't be enough, but with this offense, I think we make 13 or 14 happen by the third quarter and grind it out from there. BONUS CRAZY HUNCH: North Carolina fall weather gets nasty for this one; RW and DE power their way through the 40-degree mudbath.
  • I mark the UVa win probability lower than most because, unlike algroh, Mike London won't have the Hoos quitting on him. Scores at the third/fourth-quarter break in this series recently have been much closer than final scores and the overall record would suggest; I still think VT wins, but this year we have to fight for it.

Comments

Undefeated. MNC! MNC! MNC!

(don't you take this away from me dammit)

I have dreams of raising a crystal football

But unfortunately I also have to pick the Hokies to lose one, and I think it'll be Miami. I think we'll take care of BC though, especially since they just lost their best WR for the season due to injury. Their two new starters now have a total of 20 career receptions between the two. Ouch.

One loss doesn't necessarily mean the end.

If we go 11-1, earn a spot in the ACCCG and destroy the opponent there's still a chance we could be playing for the crystal.

MNC but......

I want to agree with vtbaz, but I think we are going to lose one game this year...either UNC or Miami. Almost hoping UNC as then we would have enough time to climb back up in the rankings. If we lose to BSU it will be very hard to get back as they have an easy schedule the rest of the season.

I can see all the above situations happening

I can also see us losing to GT, UNC, or even a loss to a team we have NO business losing to

"I don't know what a Hokie is, but God is one of them.' So I'm going with God. I'm going with Virginia Tech." Lee Corso Aug 23, 2000

http://www.thekeyplay.com

To Sum it Up

We think we know what this team is all about, but really we don't have a clue.

yeah pretty much

It has been awhile since we have had so many questions on defense. If we didn't have those questions we would all pretty much be expecting no more than 1 loss.

"I don't know what a Hokie is, but God is one of them.' So I'm going with God. I'm going with Virginia Tech." Lee Corso Aug 23, 2000

http://www.thekeyplay.com

totally bummed...

that you guys all think we will lose to Miami. What do you think it will take to beat them at home?

addietime
twitter.com/addietime

We Have the Tools to Beat 'Em

In terms of atmosphere it's not really a home game for them because they don't sellout the stadium and it's not built to generate noise like Lane. Their limited advantages of playing us in Miami is we have to travel to them and we can't bring the craziness of Lane with us. Last year's raucous environment plus the weather shell shocked them early and they never recovered.

Without watching a single game I'd say we're pretty even on paper. So it's not like we can't beat them or won't beat them. I just think we're an imperfect team and we'll lose a couple of games. I just happened to pick that one. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we lost to GT and then went on the road and beat both UNC and Miami.

Your avatar with Randall is awesome BTW.

i do like kool aid.

how do we beat boise state, but lose to any other team?

miami may be a good team, and they are definitely being rebuilt by shannon, but they just aren't there yet. harris is coming off shoulder surgey, and they had two upperclassmen dismissed from the team. do we lose to them this year? no, but i am definitely going to be nervous in 2012 when we head back to miami gardens.

i also see some problematic forumla keeping as the 45% for unc is counted as a W, when 45% for miami is counted as a loss.

furthermore, bc? how? they may look spiffy in their new under armour uniforms, but they definitely will not be protecting their house. they have had our number over the last couple years, but this team is lightyears away from those teams. eric is right, the sophomore starter will find no mercy with our secondary, and bc will lose.

my pick? 12-0. its not wishful thinking. sure our offensive line is depleted, but we should see less holding calls (*cough* ed wang *cough*) and we should see tyrod having the same amount of time in the pocket. let's be honest, do ryan williams and darren evans need a hole to run through? as for the defense, well two words should ease the minds of everyone: bud foster. he has a knack for taking nobodies and making them somebodies (nick sorenson was drafted as DEFENSIVE PLAYER). our biggest concern is injuries, but since siegel isn't in jail and gentry is god, i think we will be alright in that department. key to the national championship? RUN THE MOTHA EFFING BALL.

out.

Whether we think we will win and percentage chance don't necessarily need to correlate. In the example of 45% think of it as 4.5 times out of 10 we'd beat that team.

I believe in these guys more than any other Tech since '04. They just need to prove it. If they wax Boise, it is very realistic that we'll run the table. I want to see them play one game before I go all in. You've got the grapefruits to do so blind and I applaud that optimism.

second time

That's the second time I've seen you type that Joe...12 more days then at least there will be 3 on this site that think so.

I'm beating a dead horse.

I'm beyond anxious for Labor Day. Just let me see what this team does on the field already. I used to have faith but the 2001-'03 teams took it out of me.

Nick Sorenson

Haaa, I haven't thought of that name for a long time until watched the 2000 Sugar Bowl the other day. Great point that he got drafted. Bud does make vodka lemonade out of lemons but I am worried about linebackers this year as well. We are super inexperienced there and will be suspect as the d-line matures. I have faith in these guys but not like I did when we had a couple young guys named Hall and Adibi back there.

lemonade

see the thing is, we may have talent we don't even know about yet. lets be honest, some of our biggest and most consistent defensive players of the last decade were unknowns coming out of high school. i am not worried, especially if hosley is healthy.

Not Undefeated

If we were coming into the season expected to fight for 3rd place in the Coastal Division I would be a little more optimistic. Like Joe, I am snake bitten from the '01 - '03 teams. We have an X on our back and a brutal schedule. Can we run the table in November? Barring any major injury, yes. Will we, I just don't see it. If we beat GT (i.e. stop that option and punch CPJ) then UNC will be way up for us. If we beat UNC then Miami will be more up for us, them and all 8 fans at the Not Orange Bowl. Finally UVA. New coach, we haven't lost since '03 and they are our in state rival. That screams upset to me. They can easily do to us what we did to them my first year of school, 1990, UPSET.

But then again I am never optimistic. I am nervous already for a game 12 days away. I think still some people are thinking this is just little Boise St. I hope none of the players are.

UNC

i mean, lets be honest, considering what will be happening, i am not expecting them to do much of anything, that is if they are even allowed to play.

Agree

Our end of the year stretch just got a lot easier.