With the start of the Hokies' football season only 12 days away, now is as an appropriate time as any for us scribes to make our humble predictions. Eric, Josh and I are going to pick both the outcome of each game as well as assign a confidence of win percentage. The latter is an idea inspired by Bud at Tomahawk Nation. It's an easy concept, basically we'll assign the percentage chance (0-100%) of Tech winning a given game and then derive our expected wins for the season by adding up the confidences and dividing by 100.
|Confidence & Outcome|
|Mon, Sept 6||VS Boise State||FedExField, Landover, Md.||80%||W||50%||L||65%||W|
|Sat, Sept 11||James Madison||Lane Stadium||100%||W||100%||W||100%||W|
|Mon, Sept 18||East Carolina||Lane Stadium||95%||W||99%||W||90%||W|
|Sat, Sept 25||@Boston College||Chestnut Hill, Mass.||75%||L||65%||W||40%||L|
|Sat, Oct 2||@North Carolina State||Raleigh, N.C.||90%||W||85%||W||80%||W|
|Sat, Oct 9||Central Michigan||Lane Stadium||100%||W||100%||W||100%||W|
|Sat, Oct 16||Wake Forest||Lane Stadium||95%||W||99%||W||85%||W|
|Sat, Oct 23||Duke||Lane Stadium||95%||W||99%||W||95%||W|
|Thu, Nov 4||Georgia Tech||Lane Stadium||75%||W||66%||W||80%||W|
|Thu, Nov 14||@North Carolina||Chapel Hill, N.C.||45%||W||55%||W||85%||W|
|Sat, Nov 20||@Miami||Miami Gardens, Fla.||40%||L||45%||L||35%||L|
|Sat, Nov 27||Virginia||Lane Stadium||99%||W||99%||W||75%||W|
|Expected Wins based on Confidence:||9.89||9.62||9.30|
We each provided brief explanations backing up our picks where we felt necessary.
- Boston College's offensive line is burly and bruising and they'll win the war in the trenches. Our young linebackers won't be able to compensate and make plays in traffic. It'll be a close game down to the final possession.
- Our series against Miami is stuck in a stalemate. Neither team has been able to string together a bunch of wins against the other in quite some time. They're more talented than we are on paper, but we're better coached. It'll be another close lose, but I think they take care of business at "home".
- In general I think no team in any BCS conference is going undefeated and we might be looking at a 2007 situation where a 2 loss team plays in the BCSCG. VT's flaws will be pass blocking, defensive line and whip linebacker.
- BSU will attack the whip from the get go and will get Winslow on 1 on 1 situations. The game will be low scoring and I think running is going to be tough by both teams. It's the kind of game Bud Foster wants to use to prove how good he and VT are as a program. I am sold on the Boise's veterans and how well they are coached.
- I know VT plays poorly in Boston, and even with a very good offensive line and running back, I just don't think Boston College's passing game will make Bud come out of his 8 man fronts. I love VT's wide receivers in this game and unless BC finds a pass rush, I think they have a great day.
- If there is one coach that has Bud's number it's CPJ. Both will bring their A-game given the extra time to prepare. What Bud doesn't have is Iowa's or LSU's defensive line. VT has had as good success as anyone against algroh's 3-4 defense, but they will need a 2nd TE to step up. That way VT can balance the line and have a hat on everyone in the front 7. Don't be fooled, as long as John Graves is healthy expect him to play like Charles Jefferson from Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
- Since we don't know what is going to happen with agent gate, I have to guess. I think DT Marvin Austin is done for the year. That will certainly help the offensive line some, but their D is damn good, even if the sum is slightly less than the parts. WR Greg Little, is their best and maybe only offensive playmaker. UNC will not road grade the VT DL this year.
- Da U has maturing talent and wants revenge. For VT it's the third game of a ridiculous four game ACC stretch run.
- Boston College is the first real road game for a young defense, against a team that takes VT more seriously than any other game on its schedule. Young defenses feed off crowd noise and enthusiasm, and it won't be there for them against a team that is always physically tough.
- I don't worry about UNC nearly as much as some. VT has a solid record of delivering vengeance when due, and after last year's Thursday night debacle (in which Frank Beamer and Bud Foster got outcoached by Butch Davis, recruiting king but no one's gameday genius) it is most certainly due. The defense will have grown into its role by then; I have a very tough time believing that UNC's lightweight offense puts more than 10 on the board. With some Tech offenses, that wouldn't be enough, but with this offense, I think we make 13 or 14 happen by the third quarter and grind it out from there. BONUS CRAZY HUNCH: North Carolina fall weather gets nasty for this one; RW and DE power their way through the 40-degree mudbath.
- I mark the UVa win probability lower than most because, unlike algroh, Mike London won't have the Hoos quitting on him. Scores at the third/fourth-quarter break in this series recently have been much closer than final scores and the overall record would suggest; I still think VT wins, but this year we have to fight for it.