2011 Staff Predictions

By: Joe Lanza @thekeyplay

PUBLISHER

on September 2, 2011, 12:33 AM | 9 comments

We picked the outcome for each game, as well as, a confidence of win percentage. Basically we assigned the percentage chance (0-100%) of Tech winning a given game, and then derived our expected wins for the season by adding up the confidences and dividing by 100.

Some commentary follows the table after the jump. Feel free to agree or disagree with us, and leave your picks in the comments.

		Joe		Eric		Kevin		Adam		Joe
Date	Opponent	Outcome	Confidence	Outcome	Confidence	Outcome	Confidence	Outcome	Confidence	Outcome	Confidence
S 9/3	Appalachian State	W	100%	W	99%	W	90%	W	90%	W	95%
S 9/10	at East Carolina	W	88%	W	80%	W	80%	L	50%	W	51%
S 9/17	Arkansas State	W	97%	W	99%	W	100%	W	100%	W	99%
S 9/24	at Marshall	W	88%	W	95%	W	95%	W	95%	W	85%
S 10/1	Clemson *	W	75%	L	51%	W	60%	L	50%	W	65%
S 10/8	Miami *	W	80%	W	70%	W	55%	W	85%	W	75%
S 10/15	at Wake Forest *	W	85%	W	80%	W	95%	W	95%	W	90%
S 10/22	Boston College *	W	70%	W	75%	W	85%	W	85%	W	70%
S 10/29	at Duke *	W	95%	W	90%	W	90%	W	90%	W	85%
TR 11/10	at Georgia Tech *	W	75%	L	55%	L	50%	W	70%	W	51%
TR 11/17	North Carolina *	W	65%	W	65%	W	80%	W	75%	L	49%
S 11/26	at Virginia *	W	85%	W	90%	W	90%	W	95%	W	80%
Expected Wins based on Confidence:		12-0	10.03	10-2	9.49	11-1	9.7	10-2	9.8	11-1	8.95

Joe (HokieJoe3)

VT will not lose to a FCS team two years in a row. NEVER.

VT's strength is stopping the pass and that's all ECU does. ECU has shocked VT before and being at that game makes me not want to put it not higher than 88%.

Miami's strength running the ball stays alive even with suspensions.

Boston College has played well in recent years on the defensive side of the ball and Kevin Rodgers should improve their offense.

GT's offense was never really solved by Bud Foster. I don't think it will run smoothly without Nesbitt, but keep the confidence lower the riddle has yet solved.

UNC is still talented. By the end of the year I think Everett Withers' interim tag could be removed. With that said, it's a Thursday night senior game, so the environment hopefully disrupts UNC more than it did a few years ago.

Eric (BeerControlOffense)

No more 100% from me, ever.
I know, I know too much respect for Clemson, but one year. Crap I done fell for it again.
Miami has talent and most will be returned by then. If VT beats Clemson, Miami's odds to beat Tech goes up some.
Boston College game is going to be tight, but I trust VT has home field and better perimeter athletes.
I think VT will lose one of GT or UNC, scheme wise it's GT, talent favors UNC. I went wit the away game as the L.
Sooner or later UVA will win, but Watford has to be the second coming this year to make it happen, unless VT is decimated by injuries.

Kevin

Here's the thing. We should be favored in everyone of our games, but I don't think we go 12-0. It's tough for me to pick a game we lose, so it came down to Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech.

I feel as though we get past Clemson because they'll be coming off back-to-back games against Auburn and FSU and Tajh Boyd will be playing in Lane for his first ACC start, in what could be a rare Saturday night game at Lane, depending on how September goes.

Miami will be getting all of its players back, except Oliver Vernon, and for some the game on October 8 will be their first of the season. I don't think we lose at home, but this could be a letdown game (hard to believe for Miami) considering how tough Clemson might be beforehand. Also, if Miami loses a couple in September, my confidence on us winning will skyrocket.

I had to go with a loss at Georgia Tech. If Josh Nesbitt doesn't get hurt last year, the Jackets probably hold on to win that game. Even with the amount of talent they lost, a Thursday night game against a team that we still haven't really figured out how to defend scares me. If you look at the matchups, we should win this game and I definitely could see us coming out on top, but for me, this is a tossup.

ECU scares me a little bit mainly because it's on the road and it's the first time LT3 has to encounter a hostile road crowd (Miami did not count). However, their defense is terrible enough that we could win in a shootout if necessary, but I don't think it will be.

Adam

- I don't understand why Tech locked itself into ECU for so many football games. The loss in Charlotte was horrendous, partially becuase it was so hot, but the fans have gotten over it. I just see this as a trap game and a reason for everyone to be seriously pissed. The last time Virginia Tech won all of its September football games was in 2005. So I really have no reason to think this year is different.

- Clemson is not going to be a big threat on the national scene, but there's enough talent to rip everyone's heart out this year. It's going to suck when everyone looks back after a 10-2 year and realizes we lost to yet another 5-loss Clemson team. The Tigers have had at least 4 losses every year in the last decade. This has frustrating written all over it.

- Virginia stinks. I just wanted to say that.

- Otherwise, I think Tech is good to go. There's enough talent beat North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Boston College, who each seem to give the Hokies fits here and there. But not this year. As long as David Wilson stays healthy and Logan can get the ball to his stable of receivers, there's enough offense to win 10 games. Let's all hope for good health on this roster, because if they are blessed with that, this season could be a lot of fun.

- Lastly, I think Tech gets to the conference championship game and beats Florida State. They will likely be the underdog, which suits them well. We're going to see yet another team that matures beautifully over the course of the season and will be primed to return to the BCS. Now winning that game...talk to me in December.

Joe

-- We should win every game on this schedule. We probably won't do that. I picked our lone loss against UNC because they have the most talent of any other Coastal team and their defensive line has recently given us fits. Butch Davis wasn't a great game day coach, especially against Beamer Co., so that's not a deal breaker in my opinion.