Six Pick: Week Six

Back again for another go at it, hopefully the results are better for the home team. I love college football, even when the schedule looks bad like last week, the games produce. This week there are no such issues. Now that it's October, the non-conference portion of the schedule has faded away into league play. These tilts always mean the most*, but not every week is like this one, as I'm sure the "Separation Saturday" tag will be generously applied. Many favorites for conference championships will have emerged by late Saturday night. Led by the SEC, who have 4 of their 5 top 10 teams squaring off. Make time to sloth on the sofa folks, you aren't going anywhere. Gameday watch for week 6 shows that the World Wide Leader will be in Columbia, South Carolina. In order to be the man, you gotta beat the man ... that's the only way to keep ESPN out of the Southeast.

College football is full of peaks and valleys, and even the most tradition filled programs dip down. For the elite, the peaks go for decades and the valleys are usually only short lived. However, sometimes it takes a long time to get back to the top, those schools burn through multiple coaches over many years to do it. {cough} Canes, Irish {cough} I make jokes at their expense for being "back", but I realize it's only a matter of time before those schools return to the top again. In the last 15 years, Bama, Notre Dame, FSU, Florida, Texas, Nebraska, USC, Miami, Oklahoma and Michigan have all had multiple "bad" seasons, be it probation, missing bowls, changing coaches, the butt of jokes, etc. At some point all the money poured into these programs has to pay off. I'm not proclaiming anyone back, but this season does have that transitional feel to it, a shift in the powers that be. So, if some teams are moving back up, who is getting out of their way and and going down?

* credit Beamerball.com

Saturday, 10/6/2012

LSU -2.5 at Florida 3:30 pm CBS

If Will Muschamp's second season in Gainesville is any indication of his coaching ability, the SEC East will soon run through Florida again. It might be a bit early for a nice signature win to cement Muschamp, but it looks like the two Nick Saban disciples in the state of Florida are getting things done. This game isn't about the future for Les Miles and LSU, it's about the present. After last season, the expectations were a return trip to the BCS Championship Game, but through 5 games the Tigers have looked anything but National Title worthy. While it's far too early to discount them now, all 3 phases of the game are playing at a lesser level than last season. The result of this game could very well be felt for years.

Pick: LSU covering. The trendy pick is Florida not only getting the points, but winning ... that's gave me pause to rethink my position. LSU has not looked good, however, this feels like a game LSU swells up and gives the Gators a physical beating. Last year UF couldn't handle them and they won't be able to this year either, but it will be closer.

West Virginia at Texas -6.5 7:00 pm FOX

Hook 'Em indeed

It's almost impossible to describe the Big 12 without writing a cliche statement highlighting points, yards and lack of defense. If I could come up with an original zinger, I would. To be honest, and not to sound like Nick Saban but, I HATE this brand of football. There is no substance, no struggle, no sense of accomplishment scoring all these points. It's 7-on-7 passing camp and it's trash. There are a lot of B12 QB's who need to be put on their ass, starting with Geno Smith. Look, I don't want all of the offenses to look like the Hokies or random B1G team, but if the 50+ point games are the wave of the CFB future, I don't like it. You can now get off my lawn.

Pick: The Cousins getting points, winning outright. At one point I thought Texas had an elite college defense, but after last week's performance against Okie State, that has proven to be false. These two won't combine for 133 total points, but it will be in the neighborhood of a 100.

Georgia at South Carolina PK 7:00 pm ESPN

Now that you are off my lawn, I can flip over and watch Old Man football, where hitting someone is encouraged and appreciated. I expect the ball to be run more than 2/3rds the time, as both teams have fantastic ball carriers and don't want their quarterbacks broke. Physical, brutal, tough, everything (including points scored) the sister Big 12 game isn't. This game needs no hype-man. Watch.

Pick: Dawgs winning. Simple decision for me, I like UGA's talent better than Sakerlina's, unit by unit it's almost a complete sweep for the dawgs.

Miami vs Notre Dame -12.5 7:30 pm NBC
Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)

Brings back awesome memories from High School.

Raise your hand if you expected the teams combined record to be 9-1 coming into this game? Props to them. No matter how many t-shirts are sold this week, this game isn't the Catholics vs the Convicts of the late 80's. That's a slap in the face to how good both those programs were in the late 80's. I don't like Miami. I don't like Al Golden. To be blunt, Fuck 'em, can't wait to see the NCAA give them the bidness. That said, in year two, just like he did at Temple, it appears Golden has the ship righted and the course is set in the right direction. This is going to be an interesting game, it's strength (Miami O) vs strength (ND D) and weakness vs weakness. You wouldn't think Notre Dame would slip up to Miami after the season they are having this year, but then sometimes, college football doesn't make sense.

Pick: Miami getting points. Their passing game will loosen up things for Duke Johnson to run on Notre Dame. The Canes will be the best offense, by far, Notre Dame has seen all year. All that said, if the Irish don't run for 200 yards Saturday night, they did something wrong.

Nebraska at Ohio State -3.5 8:00 pm ABC

Gonna take some heavy lifting to take the B1G into the modern era.

I'd make more jokes about B1G football, then I remembered VT and most of the ACC is no damn better. The B1G is going through a mini crisis. The football isn't good and worse, it's not entertaining most weeks. Ohio State and Michigan look at least a year away from moving back to the upper echelons, while Michigan State and Wisconsin have slipped. Without mentioning that team in Pa, it's clear the team that needed to make the move this season is Nebraska. That hasn't happened yet, but a win here and they got my attention. If not now, when for Bo Pelini?

Pick: Nebraska getting the points. The Huskers are a very good offensive team, able to run it well and very capable in the passing game. While their defense isn't black shirts level, I'm not so sure they are trash like everyone thinks. Even if they are, I probably won't know this week, because have you seen tOSU's offense? The Buckeyes will slow Nebraska, but they still have to score to win. Ruh-roh.

Washington at Oregon -23.5 10:30 pm ESPN

I have to hand it to the Pac-12, they always seem to have a nice 'lil Saturday night cap. Because of the offenses, and relative (see B12) lack of defenses, the games keep me up and entertained. Even after Udub's big win over Stanford last week, I don't expect them to take down Oregon, as confirmed by Vegas money. What I do want to know is how good these programs are. What if the Huskies keep it close? What if Oregon shithouses them? This game could solidify Oregon at #2 in the polls, depending what happens in Gainesville, or it could open things up even more behind Alabama.

Pick: Ducks laying the points. I learned from two weeks ago, Oregon minus errthing in TV games vs true challengers. Oregon was just meh last week vs Wazzou, but it was a bit of a letdown game on the road. Now the Ducks return home to face a regional rival, I think they rebound strong and beat an over confident Washington team badly.

Beer of the Week

Great Lakes Burning River is an excellent, citrusy pale ale, a great choice for watching football all day.

The name origin is also fantastic, only in Cleveland does the river actually burn. "This American pale ale garners its fair share of attention around the world—just as the Cuyahoga River did when it suddenly caught fire in 1969 and spurred the introduction of the Clean Water Act of 1972."

Quick Recap

Remember, these picks are against the spread.

LSU -2.5 at UF
w-Fn-vu at Texas -6.5
UGA at Sakerlina PK
Canes vs Irish -12.5
Huskers at Buckeyes -3.5
UDub at Oregon -23.5

Lots of interesting spreads this week, in some big time games. Good luck.