Game Preview: Marshall

By French (hates cheese), Mason (doesn't have a cell phone capable of text messaging), Joe (is helpless without spell check), and joelestra (number cruncher)

Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) against Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1)

Time: Noon (12:01)
Date: Saturday, September 21, 2013
Place: Blacksburg, Virginia
Stadium: Lane Stadium (65,632)
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG
Spread: Virginia Tech -9
Tickets: Virginia Tech Football Tickets (Sponsored)
Weather: 72 F, 80% Chance of Rain

The Skinny

The Hokies host 2-1 Marshall and are tasked with defending one of the top passing attacks in the country. The Thundering Herd is coming off of a brutal loss to Ohio, where they had three fumbles, an interception, and a multitude of offsides penalties, despite racking up 482 yards. The Hokies are seeking their 700th win in program history, they would be the 15th school in NCAA I-A history to reach that milestone.

Statistics

Statistically speaking, this is a very similar matchup as last week against ECU. First, a look at what the computers think the outcome will be, and where that falls relative to the spread.

The good news is that computers think Tech will actually win this one by more than ECU. ECU was predicted as maybe a 5-point win, don't think that things will usually be that accurate!, while Marshall is predicted at more like a 12-point win. Interestingly, the spread opened at 11 and has since moved to 9, indicating significant betting activity on Marshall. Where do these predictions come from? Here's a look at the rankings of each team in the various computer systems.

VT's median ranking is 40.5, while Marshall's is 71.5. An upset is definitely possible, although obviously not particularly likely (about a 20% chance). Looking at offensive and defensive ratings for each team, as well as comparing them by situation, the resemblance to ECU becomes apparent.

Like last week, there's an even matchup when VT has the ball, and a likely defensive dominance when Marshall has the ball. In terms of how these rank nationally, VT is 103rd in offense with Marshall ranked 76th in defense, giving them a slight edge but neither is very impressive. Conversely, Marshall is ranked 51st in offense (decent) while the Hokies are 5th (best of luck Herd). As with any good rating system, these are opponent-adjusted.

Keep an Eye On...

Rakeem Cato : Virginia Tech faced Cato back in 2011 when the Hokies travelled to Marshall. As a Freshmen, Cato showed promise as he passed for 245 yards against Foster's complex defense. Tech won that matchup, 30 to 10, but two years later Rakeem Cato comes to Blacksburg looking for revenge. In 2012 Marshall led the nation in passing and Cato won the 2012 Conference USA MVP award. As a Junior, Cato starts off the 2013 on a few award watch lists, including the Maxwell and the Manning awards. Cato isn't just a threat with his arm, as he has had success rushing the football. Virginia Tech's defense has excelled in just about every facet of play this year, but has shown some vulnerability to QB rushing packages. A mobile quarterback like Rakeem Cato will be a good test to see just how good this Tech defense is. Linebackers Tariq Edwards and Jack Tyler have to be able to fight off blocks and chase Cato down when he does keep the ball. Against a team that throws the ball so much, and so well, true freshmen Kendall Fuller and Brandon Facyson will need to continue locking down receivers and making plays on the ball. Cato will try to counter their aggressiveness with throws down the field, throws he is more capable of completing than the other two spread QBs Tech has seen yet. Charley Wiles's d-line has terrorized three separate quarterbacks this season, but rattling the veteran Cato won't be as easy. Even if Cato keeps his cool under pressure, a solid pass rush might be able to mess up the timing he has with his receivers.

Jonathan McLaughlin: Winning the time of possession battle will be a priority for the Virginia Tech offensive staff, and running the football will be the key to doing just that. Freshmen left tackle Jonathan McLaughlin will have to have a better game than he did versus ECU if the tailbacks are going to keep the powerful Marshall passing attack on the sideline. Pounding the football on early downs should help McLaughlin out in pass protection as well, since the Marshall defensive coordinator won't have as many obvious passing situations to exploit with exotic blitzes. McLaughlin will probably have plenty of one-on-one pass rush matchups on Saturday, and those are battles that he has to win with regularity. If Logan Thomas can stand tall in the pocket and feel comfortable delivering the ball on time, the Hokie attack will be much more dangerous.

Jarquez Samuel (#94, NT) and James Rouse (#11, DT), and the Marshall d-line: The Virginia Tech offensive line struggled against ECU last week, and Marshall's defensive line studs hope to continue that trend. Offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler likes to throw the ball down the field off of his play-action fakes, but if he can't trust his big boys up front to keep Logan upright he'll have to dial those play calls down. The pass rush isn't the only time these two players will make a difference though. Trey Edmunds and the rest of the running back rotation failed to make any headway at ECU. Marshall won't be much easier to push around, as they currently rank 6th in the nation in rushing defense. They are holding their opponents to a ridiculous 1.76 yards per attempt, almost a full yard better than Tech's defense. Logan Thomas has a big arm which can bail a team out of a lot of bad situations, but if Tech is constantly behind schedule on 2nd and 3rd down because it can't get a push up front when rushing, Tech could be in trouble.

Tariq Edwards and Jack Tyler: Bud Foster does not believe in substituting out his two middle linebackers against spread formations. He likes to rely on his secondary players to match up versus an opponent's wide receivers, and use his two interior linebackers to either blitz the QB or drop into a zone in the middle of the field. With a dual threat quarterback like Cato, Edwards and Tyler will have an even bigger role than normal. They'll have to fight off blocks and make plays against Marshall's shotgun-read rushing attack. If this pair get caught up in traffic and can't flow to the ball the Thundering Herd will have success attacking the defense on the ground. Pressuring Cato will be a priority for these two as well. Not only will they need to get after him when he gets out of the pocket, but Foster has had success blitzing them up the middle this season. When they aren't making plays in the rushing game or sacking the quarterback, these two linebackers need to be disruptive in pass coverage. Last week Edwards made a fantastic interception by following the QB's eyes and cutting under a route. Marshall's short passing game relies on attacking the middle of the field, taking that portion of the field away will be key to forcing Cato to hold onto the ball longer than he wants.

DJ Coles: Frank Beamer said he wanted to use D.J. Coles less, but get more out of him. Against ECU the offensive staff did just that. Coles wasn't on the field nearly as much as he was against Alabama, but when he was Coles made plays. Coles only had 3 receptions, but he led the team with 13 yards per catch. Against a stout rushing defense,Tech will eventually find itself in a 2nd or 3rd and long. When Logan Thomas has to drop back and attack the defense vertically, expect him to be looking Coles' way.

When Virginia Tech is on Offense

Running the football will be a challenge this week. Marshall runs a four-man front, with two inside linebackers and a hybrid safety/linebacker on the outside. Marshall has a very active, attacking scheme where the defensive tackles look to get penetration, and the linebackers and safeties outside fly in early and make tackles. Both defensive tackles like to shoot between the center-guard gap, and are incredibly disruptive. This presents a very difficult matchup for Andrew Miller, David Wang, and Caleb Farris.

Marshall's numbers against the pass are also impressive, but while the Herd held Ohio's running game in check, Marshall looked disorganized against the Bobcat's passing attack. The Herd uses numerous blitz looks, but the integrity of their zone defense breaks down on broken plays. Ohio's best success came on scramble drills, and receivers were often wide open. Last week Logan Thomas was trusted to go spread and throw the ball all over the field. Against Marshall Logan will need to build off of the success he had in the short passing game and extend it to the deep game as well. Scott Loeffler likes to use the spread formation to pass it short, and he'll ask Logan to throw it deep only when once the defense has over committed to stopping his quick-hitting routes.

The zone blocking scheme Tech implemented this offseason has had mixed success. While Tech was able to get a push against Alabama's front seven, ECU shut that part of the Hokies offensive attack down. Looking at the film it's obvious that the Hokies haven't been using much variety in their ground game, relying almost entirely on a handful of rushing plays. If Loeffler does have counters built into his ground game he hasn't shown them yet. He could be waiting for ACC play to begin before breaking them out, but if that's the case that strategy almost backfired against ECU. Running the ball is vital to the Hokies success and if the offensive line struggles to get movement with the zone scheme, don't be surprised to see the coaches mix in some traps, sweeps, and man blocking schemes.

Marshall doesn't mind playing it's safeties close to the line of scrimmage when they anticipate a running play is coming. Tech rarely called a play-action pass from under center last week (although one did go for a touchdown) but Loeffler has shown in the past he has a well-developed play-action game plan. Kalvin Cline has gotten extensive game time the past two weeks for the Hokies and could be a matchup problem for a Marshall defense that plays aggressively vs the run. Expect Tech to get back to using the bootleg, as well as trying to get D.J. Coles and Demitri Knowles open deep down the field in one-on-one coverage after a play-fake.

Marshall also took numerous offside penalties on hard counts. Look for Logan Thomas to vary his cadence and use a hard count to draw Marshall offside and extend drives.

When Virginia Tech is on Defense

Marshall runs the same Air Raid system as East Carolina, but the Herd look to throw the ball down field much more than the Pirates. Marshall is also a high tempo, no-huddle team, averaging almost 84 offensive plays per game so far this season.

After the Hokies performance against the Pirates, I think the Herd will follow the Pirates' blueprint for attacking Virginia Tech. Rakeem Cato will attempt to catch the Hokies safeties in press coverage on the slots against the best Marshall receivers. The Pirates were content for the most part to throw the ball short on quick outs and screens to slot receivers except off play-action, but Marshall will attempt to beat the Hokie safeties on deep passes using Four Verticals concepts.

In order for the Herd to attack vertically, they must protect Rakeem Cato and they must establish the short passing game. Early, look for tunnel screens and rub routes where the outside receiver runs a post, the inside receiver tries to use the post route as a pick, and then run a flag route to the flat. Then, Cato will attack down the field, but to confuse the defense, Marshall will show a quick pass look first, and then go deep. One favorite play is four vertical routes, but the slot receivers run wheel routes. Let's take a look.

Marshall does not have a true fullback. Instead they line up H-Back Gator Hoskins in the backfield as a fullback from the Offset I Pistol look. On this play, the Herd would align twins to the field side and a single receiver to the boundary. In this formation, the rover (Kyshoen Jarrett) will have single coverage on Hoskins. Let's see how the play develops against Miami of Ohio.

00:00:57–00:01:06

Hoskins heads to the left flat, and the outside linebacker shadows over. Hoskins then heads up turns back up field, and the linebacker can not change direction quickly enough. The corner has gone inside to cover the vertical route by the split end, who runs a slant and up. On the other side, the Herd runs the same route, tying up any potential safety help with the deep slant and go from the other split end and wheel route by the slot receiver. The result is a wide open Hoskins for an easy touchdown. Hoskin leads the team in touchdowns and averaged 17.6 yards per, the other Marshall receivers tend to catch more passes on quick, short routes.

Marshall will run variations of their outside receivers coming towards the middle of the field and their slots attacking the edge over and over again. Expect outside post with inside receivers running screens to the flat and short 5-yard outs all game long, and then a vertical challenge when those Hokie defensive backs pressing the slot start to over commit on the short route. Both Bonner and Jarrett are former corners, but have struggled in coverage at times. Also, if Marshall can get Tariq Edwards in the same matchup, look for them to exploit it early and often.

Expect that the Hokies will use the same defensive structure that worked so well against East Carolina. Fuller will press the slot receiver to the field side, and if Marshall goes trips to the field, Bonner will press the inside guy with Fuller backing off slightly. If Marshall has twins to the boundary, Jarrett will press the slot, and Bonner will likely move back to a true free safety in the center of the field.

To stop this vertical threat, the Hokies must get Rakeem Cato to throw the ball before he wants to. Watching film, Cato will throw the ball off his back foot when pressured, and those throws tend to be lollipops (although he is very accurate). If the Hokies can get pressure, expect several opportunities for interceptions. Expect Bud Foster to blitz and blitz often, especially given that Marshall has not featured their tailbacks in the passing game much at all (5 catches in 3 games between the top three tailbacks so far this season).

Marshall has also ran for 214 yards a game this season. The Herd rotates three tailbacks, and although Essray Taliaferro is the starter, backup Steward Butler has been their leading rusher so far and is averaging 9.1 yards a carry. Taliaferro, Butler, and Kevin Grooms are all lilliputian sized running backs in the 5-7, 170-pound size range. Against Ohio, Taliaferro and Butler both fumbled the first time they were hit hard, and Butler also fumbled a kickoff. If the Hokies play an aggressive hard hitting game, they are likely to benefit from some turnovers. The primary running plays are a sweep from the shotgun formation, with the line blocking down and two backside defenders pulling; and a read option. Cato has not been much of a runner in the past, but he has rushed for 95 yards on 20 carries so far this season and is athletic enough to at least pester the Hokies on quarterback keepers out of read option. He doesn't care for contact, and often slides to avoid a hit.

What Virginia Tech needs to do to Win

Marshall is no pushover. They have a well constructed and well executed offense to go along with a defense that is putting up even better numbers versus the rush then Tech is. Tech will be the best team that they have faced yet this season, but don't expect the Thundering Herd to be intimidated. Rakeem Cato is what Frank Beamer would call a baller". Tech's young corners will need to step up once again and lock down wide receivers that are used to beating tight coverage. Marshall has had it's share of turnover problems this season though, something an offense never wants to have when facing a ball-hawking defense. Foster has stated that he wants three turnovers a game from his unit, and that's a distinct possibility versus a Marshall team that turned the ball over four times against Ohio. Cody Journell had a bad game at ECU, but Scot Loeffler should have been more upset with the amount of times it was necessary to send him out on the field. In the red zone, the Hokies need to "Stick it in, Stick it in, Stick it in". Getting a good push on rushing plays is the best way to have success when near the goal line. Marshall has been able to stop opponents from running the ball so far, but Tech should have higher quality athletes then Miami (OH), Gardner-Webb, and Ohio. Tech's front-five needs to dominate the line of scrimmage and impose it's will on the Thundering Herd. When Tech does pass the ball it's wide receivers need to be exciting play makers. Tech hasn't had many yards after catch so far this year, something it'll look to change in this matchup. As ACC play draws near, the Hokies should have Loeffler's full playbook installed. Foster's defense could be good enough to go out and win this one on their own, but it would be nice to see the offense execute Loeffler's game plan. Tech should win this game, and winning it in convincing fashion (rather then stumbling towards the finish line) would be a good confidence boost heading into the Thursday night matchup at Georgia Tech.