Does in-state actually matter?

So I have only really gotten involved in studying recruiting for the last year. I am someone who tries to find patterns and correlations to see what has an effect on recruits and what doesn't. Constantly seeing people talk about losing instate recruits has made me wonder how much it really matters.

The world has changed a great deal in the last 5-10 years in terms of media and exposure. Twitter, Facebook, etc have blurred state lines a fair amount. We are more likely to hear news about the west coast more than ever.

I want to look at the top 10 recruits from the top 10 football states and attempt to show that in-state does not carry as much weight as so many believe it does. I think it is an exaggerated factor and although it is a variable it really is not as strong as one might believe.

I will throw some lists out which rank the football in said states based on recruits, schools, etc.

1. Texas
2. California
3. Florida
4. Ohio
5. Georgia
6. Pennsylvania
7. Illinois
8. Mississippi
9. Tenn
10. Alabama

maxpreps

10. New Jersey
9. North Carolina
8. Ohio
7. Alabama
6. Virginia
5. Louisiana
4. Georgia
3. Texas
2. California
1. Florida

bleacher report 2014

Here is another list from espn ESPN state football rankings

So now I am just going to look at the top 5 schools in Texas, Florida, Cali, Ohio, and Georgia. These 5 always seem to come up in recruiting talks and we are going to focus on the top 10 recruits from each state both last year and this year and see if they stayed in state or not. Mind you these states also all house National Championship teams. For this I will use the 247composite rankings to rank the top recruits from each state. This is also as of 11:00 am on Feb 5 (national signing day)

Texas
2014
Myles Garrett A&M
Tony Brown Alabama
Solomon Thomas Stanford
KD Cannon Baylor
Jamal Adams LSU
Edward Paris LSU
Davion Hall Baylor
Nick Harvey A&M
Derick Roberson Texas
Jerrod Heard Texas

6/10 stay instate

2013
Keith Ford Oklahoma
Ricky Seals-Jones A&M
Robbie Rhodes Baylor
A'Shawn Robinson Alabama
Darius James Texas
Kent Perkins Texas
Derrick Griffin Miami
Mike Mitchell Ohio State
Dontre Wilson Ohio State
Justin Manning A&M

5/10 stay instate

California

2014

Adoree' Jackson Undecided
John Smith Undecided
Joe Mixon Oklahoma
Royce Freeman Oregon
Damien Mama Undecided
Keller Chryst Stanford
Michiah Quick Undecided
Viane Talamaivao USCw
Nifae Lealao Undecided
Bryce Dixon USCw

So far 3/10 staying instate

2013
Su'a Cravens USCw
Eddie Vanderdoes UCLA
Max Redfield ND
Chris Hawkins USCw
Tahaan Goodman UCLA
Steven Mitchell USCw
Damore'ea Stringfellow Washington
Marcus Baugh Ohio State
Kylie Fitts UCLA
Justin Davis USCw

7/10 stay instate

Florida

2014
Dalvin Cook FSU
Bo Scarbrough Alabama
Sony Michel Georgia
Ermon Lane Undecided
Chad Thomas Miami
Travis Rudolph FSU
Joseph Yearby Miami
KC McDermott Miami
Travonte Valentine Undecided
Artavis Scott Clemson

So far 5/10 staying instate

2013
Vernon Hargreaves III Florida
Laremy Tunsil Ole Miss
Matthew Thomas FSU
Derrick Henry Alabama
Kelvin Taylor Florida
MacKensie Alexander Clemson
Leon McQuay III USCw
Demarcus Walker FSU
Joey Bosa Ohio State
Alex Collins Arkansas

4/10 stay instate

Ohio

2014

Marshon Lattimore Ohio State
Dante Booker Ohio State
Erick Smith Ohio State
Parris Campbell Ohio State
Kyle Berger Ohio State
Michael Ferns Michigan
Sam Hubbard Ohio State
Derek Kief Alabama
DeShone Kizer ND
Darius West Kentucky

6/10 stayed instate

2013

Jalin Marshall Ohio State
Cameron Burrows Ohio State
Dymonte Thomas Michigan
Evan Lisle Ohio State
Michael McCray Michigan
Taco Charlton Michigan
Shelton Gibson WVU
Gareon Conley Ohio State
Malik Zaire ND
Jake Butt Michigan

4/10 stayed instate

Georgia

2014

Lorenzo Carter Undecided
Raekwon McMillan Ohio State
Nick Chubb Georgia
Deshaun Watson Clemson
Malkom Parrish Georgia
Bryson Allen-Williams USCe
Dante Sawyer USCe
Nick Ruffin Auburn
Kalvaraz Bessent Auburn
Korie Rogers Clemson

2/10 stayed instate

2013
Robert Nkemdiche Ole Miss
Montravius Adams Auburn
Carl Lawson Auburn
Vonn Bell Ohio State
Alvin Kamara Alabama
Tyren Jones Alabama
Demarcus Robinson Florida
Tray Matthews Georgia
Kelsey Griffin USCe
Brice Ramsey Georgia

2/10 stayed instate

And finally we will look at Virginia

Virginia

2014

Da'Shawn Hand Alabama
Quin Blanding UVA
Andrew Brown UVA
Jalyn Holmes Ohio State
Derrick Nnadi FSU
Jamil Kamara UVA
Caleb Henderson UNC
Steven Moss UVA
Raymon Minor VT
Travon McMillian VT

6/10 stayed instate

2013

Christian Heckenberg Penn State
Jonathan Allen Alabama
Derrick Green Michigan
Holland Fisher VT
Taquan Mizzell UVA
Matt Rolin Florida
Wyatt Teller VT
Ryan Burns Stanford
E.J. Levenberry FSU
Tim Harris UVA

4/10 stayed instate

Now this is just a small sample of what happens EVERYWHERE. It seems California does an amazing job keeping talent in state but it sure does look like when a National Power comes knocking recruits listen over instate ties. Well unless you are part of the breds.