Both Hokies and Heels Look to Avoid 0-2 ACC Records

Saturday, the Hokies find themselves in a must win battle against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The loser will be 0-2 in the ACC, and on the outside looking in at a potential Coastal Division championship. The Hokies have never been 0-2 since moving to the ACC in 2004. Interestingly, the divisional battle also pits the two power five defenses that have given up offensive plays over 20-plus yards at the highest rate this season. The winner Saturday most likely will be the team that can best prevent big plays on defense while breaking them on offense.

Despite struggling defensively in losses to Clemson and East Carolina (giving up over 400 yards passing in each game), North Carolina seems to have the advantage. The Hokies have struggled to generate big plays on offense (only 21 plays all season over 20 yards), while UNC has delivered 17 plays over 20 yards in one less game. Both teams have defenses that give up the big play, while both offenses have resorted to dinking and dunking their way down the field, where often a busted assignment or mental error has killed a drive. Remove the big plays given up in the passing game, which Bud Foster said have mostly been the result of the Hokies not properly using technique or blowing assignments in the called coverage, and the Hokie defense has been strong this season.

Keep an Eye On: The UNC Offense

UNC's offense is a unique animal. In a similar fashion to East Carolina, they try move at a fast pace to prevent the defense from substituting by getting to the line in no huddle and running plays quickly. But unlike the Pirates, the Tar Heels utilize quarterback Marquise Williams much more effectively on designed runs (heavy read option), and the passing play structure features a much greater diversity of routes compared to the Pirates' limited package of screens, slants, and post-wheel combinations.

After watching the Heels on film, that diversity may actually be a problem. UNC rotates two quarterbacks even though Williams may be the most difficult quarterback to defend in the ACC Coastal. Even though Williams has the ability to beat teams with his arm and legs, backup Mitch Trubisky subs in on the third series and throughout the game. Three running backs have over 20 carries even though freshman stud Elijah Hood and sophomore T.J. Logan are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. Dynamic Ryan Switzer, a year removed from a season where he returned five punts for touchdowns and was named an All-American, is a threat threat that UNC will deploy Switzer on a variety of screens, jet sweeps, and reverses to get him into space. The threat of Switzer and the read option plays will force the Hokies to play solid assignment football, something that the defense struggled with against Georgia Tech. Foster's troops must stay at home and trust their teammates to execute their assignments. Over pursuit could have disastrous consequences.
For most of their matchup, Clemson did an outstanding job of defending Switzer by playing solid assignment football. Here is an example of a UNC gadget play where Clemson stays at home.

The Clemson right / weak side d-end Shaq Lawson (No. 90) is left unblocked and read by North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The play seems like outside zone read all the way. Lawson doesn't crash the line and Trubisky gives it to tailback T.J. Logan (No. 8). However, it's a reverse. Logan flips the ball to wide receiver Ryan Switzer who is coming back around for a minimal one-yard gain. Like against Georgia Tech and Ohio State, Virginia Tech's defenders will have to do their job and trust teammates to do theirs. The Tar Heels don't fool Clemson because both Lawson and corner Garry Peters (No. 26) don't abandon their back side run responsibilities.

At the same time, the Hokies can't be so conservative against Switzer that they give him the space and time to make plays with his speed. Late against Clemson, Switzer broke a screen for a 75 yard touchdown run, and against ECU, the Pirates got caught giving Switzer too much room and he burned them with a touchdown pass.

Fedora has a deep bag of tricks. Take away Hood and Switzer, and the UNC quarterbacks still have their choice of big NFL-sized receivers in honorable mention All-ACC 6-4, 215 Quinshad Davis (13 receptions, 142 yards, 2 TDs), 6-3, 200 Mack Hollins (11 receptions, 277 yards, 3 TDs), and 6-4 200 Bug Howard (16 receptions, 139 yards, 1 TD). While the big UNC receivers don't do a terrific job of getting separation, they do have the ability to win jump balls against the Hokies smaller corners and safeties, and all three are comfortable playing from the slot. They present a matchup nightmare for a secondary that has struggled defending big receivers in the slot since the Ohio State game.

What to Watch For: Continuity and Big Plays

With all these weapons at his disposal, how is Larry Fedora coming out on the losing end the last two weeks? Take away the UNC pass defense, which has been terrible, and a close inspection of Fedora's offense reveals many of the same problems that have been noted with the Hokies offense. Fedora has a tendency to get too cute, either by using his diverse playbook when it is clear that several bread and butter plays are working. Also, the rotation of so many different skill position players, especially the quarterbacks, screws up the continuity of the offense. When Marquise Williams is in the game, he becomes a primary runner (he leads the team in carries (38). Trubisky is talented, but his interception to touchdown ratio and completion percentage is lower than Williams. If that is a byproduct of the Tar Heels becoming more of a downfield passing team with Trubisky, well that speaks to part of the problem. Right now, the Heels have the same playbook, but are running two different offenses in terms of identity even though the X's and O's look the same. The constant rotation of the running backs from a power back in Hood to speed guys like Romar Morris and T.J. Logan has the same effect. Switzer is a terrific weapon, but using him on gadget plays can derail a drive as quickly as they can jump start it. Fedora seems to have too many toys to play with.

Against Clemson, North Carolina moved the football well, but struggled to generate big plays. If the Heels stayed ahead of the chains and had third-and-shorts, the short passing game and the legs of Hood and Williams usually sustained the drives. But, as college kids do, on long drives mental errors creep into the Heels game, and Clemson's terrific pass rush and UNC's receivers' inability to get separation down field produced enough stops early that the Tigers never looked back. The rotation of players has to contribute to that inconsistency.

Williams (in-)accuracy is the easiest to identify. While Williams completes a high percentage of passes, he is wildly erratic in the drop back passing game. One throw will be a beautiful soft toss to one of his big receivers on a fade route. The next will be way off the mark to a wide open receiver in the slot.

Bud Foster's defense has to prevent the Tar Heels from getting quick strike scores. The more the Hokies defense can prevent big plays, the more opportunities that the UNC offense has for busts. Stopping big plays is going to be a tough task. Williams will look for all three of his big receivers on fade routes from the slot, much like East Carolina torched the Hokies on three weeks ago.

Hood is the best running back the Hokies have played, and Williams has the size, strength, and athleticism to break contain against the Hokies pass rush. With the Hokies seemingly committed to sending six or more pass rushers while playing man coverage downfield, Williams breaking contain is a recipe for disaster.

Not to mention Switzer, who can turn a tunnel screen or a punt into a game-winning touchdown at any time.

Because of Switzer's ability on screens and short passes, and Williams ability to break contain, it seems logical to expect Bud Foster to use more zone this week. However, every time I have expected to see more passive zone coverage this season, Foster turned up the pressure dial with more unique blitzing looks. The Hokies must play those quick screens properly (Donovan Riley has been beaten several times on quick screens this season), and edge players Dadi Nicolas and Deon Clarke not only have to generate pressure on Williams, but they must stay in the proper lanes to prevent Williams from breaking contain. As much as the Hokies have struggled covering deep passes, I think Bud Foster would prefer that Fedora attack with fade routes versus Williams and Switzer running wild in space.

So, about the Tar Heels' Defense...

You have to assume that, despite their challenges, the UNC offense is talented enough to score some points against a Hokie defense that has struggled with giving up big plays on coverage busts. The question becomes, can the Virginia Tech offense score enough points to overcome those defensive breakdowns. The Heels present a tempting target to try and look for big plays. Much like the Hokies, they use lots of pressure packages where they put six defenders on the line of scrimmage and press to the outside. Unlike the Hokies, the Heels have not generated much pressure (7 sacks in four games), which exposes their secondary to big plays. Virginia Tech is tied 6th nationally in sacks per game (4.25), while North Carolina is tied for 28th in sacks allowed (1.25).

Sophomore corner Brian Walker is a dangerous ballhawk on the boundary (three interceptions this season) and excels at baiting quarterbacks into bad throws. On this play, Walker is covering the short route on the same fade-cross combination route that torched the Hokies last week.

Walker presses the outside receiver on the drag, but keeps his eyes in the backfield. When he reads that Shane Carden is going to try and throw the fade, Walker drops off his man and fades back into the path of the football in a similar fashion to the ECU defensive back that picked off Michael Brewer in the second quarter a few weeks ago. With Brewer leading the ACC in thrown interceptions, Walker will be licking his chops on Saturday.

Besides Walker, the UNC secondary is a liability. It is very tempting for any offensive coordinator to attack with the passing game after watching the film. The Heels have been repeatedly beaten on deep balls or on plays where their defensive backs tackle poorly and don't pursue well to the football.

On this play Clemson super freshman DeShaun Watson get all day to throw on a critical third-and-long with UNC still in the football game. The Tigers receiver eventually breaks open, and the Heels' defensive backs don't really pursue hard to gang tackle while the receiver runs over two defenders for a touchdown (No. 42 comes into the screen late.) This is pretty emblematic of the secondary this season.

While UNC, behind solid linebackers Jeff Schoettmer and Travis Hughes, are pretty solid at stopping the run, Scot Loeffler must work to establish the running game to keep the Hokie defense off the field. UNC fell behind by big margins against both Clemson and East Carolina, but eventually both the Tigers and the Pirates defense got winded and started giving up big play to put UNC back in the ballgame. Loeffler must continue to build on last week's success and develop the continuity and aggressiveness needed for a successful running attack. Running the football will make play-action more effective, and play-action is the ticket to big plays in the passing game. I don't think the Hokies can win this football game without rushing for at least 150 yards, if not much more.

With Georgia Tech already owning a tiebreaker on the Hokies, and North Carolina also finding themselves staring 0-2 in the conference in the face, the stakes for Virginia Tech couldn't be higher. Stud defensive end recruit Jalen Dalton will be in attendance, and the chances of landing him along with the chances of winning the Coastal Division likely vanish with a loss on Saturday. The first quarter will be critical. Virginia Tech got off to a slow start against East Carolina and never recovered, but last season the Hokies were able to jump all over a sleepwalking Tar Heel team early. An explosive start for the Hokies could result in the emotionally fragile defense folding and the UNC fan base back to talking basketball season. Can Foster, who seemed to be incredibly agitated on the sideline as Western Michigan scored a late field goal after a handful of coverage breakdowns, find the right combinations to force some turnovers and generate quick scores? If there was ever a game where you would like to see Foster come up with a changeup to force a mistake early.