Kiper on Hokies in the '18 Draft

Tremaine drafted No. 12 to the Bengals. Would be great for Edmunds and the Hokies.

Terrell and Timmy drafted by round three.

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Comments

Very nice

Hopefully they will be healthy through the combine and draft prep. Heard lots of stuff last year about Ford having some injury issues in the lead up to the draft that contributed to his fall.

Was indeed injured in the lead up. #Sauces

Always choose joy.

If these 4 guys plus Stroman and Facyson keep doing well in their senior bowls and the combine we could see 6 guys drafted which would be a great turnaround from recent years.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Don't forget Cam, could have 7 drafted.

It's impossible for me to read that long quote Bitter tweeted without using Mel Kiper's voice

Quarterback position

"That kid you're talking to right there, I think he played his nuts off! And you can quote me on that shit!" -Bud Foster

Haha the one that gets me is

Who could end up, like I say,
a second- or third-round pick

Of course I love seeing this, but he has been very high on some Hokies in the past, only to see them get drafted significantly later than he projected or not at all. Certainly hope that is not the case, just sayin'.

--
"It's time to go play Virginia Tech Football longer and harder than anybody else in America!!" -- Justin Fuente
"I put a brick in Sacksburg today." -- Cam Phillips

I agree. As I said in another thread, I'd love to have all of them drafted and make those rosters. Based on recent experiences of Hokies in the Draft, I won't be shocked if we have three of them UDFA (which pisses me off, too).

I think y'all have some (understandable) bias from last year, but you have to remember individual players don't have an effect on the draft stock of others. Last years players don't alter how these individual players are being evaluated.

It's not just last year's class that has me feeling this way. I'm not a draft guru, just a Hokie hoping for the best, preparing for reality to not live up to my dreams.

Agree, my comment was more regarding Kiper's record so-to-speak.

--
"It's time to go play Virginia Tech Football longer and harder than anybody else in America!!" -- Justin Fuente
"I put a brick in Sacksburg today." -- Cam Phillips

Can Tremaine play inside and outside though? Just want to be sure I have that right.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinsku, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

I always think of this when I hear Kiper's name...

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

"Mel Kiper gets to your sister. He gets to your mother. He gets to everybody!"

How is this not a viral meme by now?

I keep seeing every analyst and mock draft this week has suddenly decided to declare Terrell the next in the long line of safeties-turned-ILB in the NFL. I really don't get this he was so good as a coverage safety at VT. He might have had some struggles with his injury this year but never at any point did I think "this guy's true calling is a linebacker at the next level" while watching him.

Leg, I refer you to the Duke play, where he ran back almost 35 yds to make a play being caught out of position. Speed is solemnly under rated

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

Cool stat and recruiting insight (#bagman) regarding Wyatt Teller:

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

My freshman year I was in D2 with some friends and see Wyatt walk in. This was his freshman year as well so he was trying to bulk up to play OL. He walks in by himself, sits down with a massive burrito and a glass of milk. Finishes it, gets up, gets another huge burrito and glass of milk. Eats that too and leaves all in the span of about ten minutes. It honestly looked like he just stopped by D2 for a snack.

No, that was Marvin Urquhart.

No electrons were harmed in the making of this comment or post. However, billions of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.

James Gayle always did have a gift with his choice of words. Just ask all the boohoos he destroyed, before they even took the field!

It's all about The VPISU
VT '10, Born & Raised in the 804.
GO: Freeman Rebels, Keydets, Black Knights (the VMI of the North), NY Rangers & Giants, and ATL Braves.

good pub, but kiper really isn't good.

this...i've been wary of Kiper ever since the Shyrone Stith debacle in the late 90s

As a lifelong Skins fan, I can appreciate this comment.

I am very neutral towards Kiper/McShay types, but I think it's unfair to say stuff like this. They do this as a job, and they are significantly better at it than the average person. They can get 90-95% of the first round right, 80% of the first two rounds right and the only thing people will remember is the few they got wrong. It's pretty much the ultimate lose-lose for them. All it takes is a few wrong picks, or one egregiously wrong pick (Leaf over Manning) for someone to say shit like this about them forever. It would be total ass if you absolutely crushed your job 95% of the time, but people only ever talked about that 1/20 time you made the wrong call/suggestion/idea.

This almost the exact argument I always make. These guys aren't savants or anything, but they do a pretty good job.

Yep. Especially considering they get lied too constantly as coaches try to mislead their intentions. They do a pretty good job overall.

"with all due respect, and remember I’m sayin’ it with all due respect, that idea ain’t worth a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin gettin’ it on" - Ricky Bobby

lol, sure.

trash

No one is saying he can pick the exact spot players will go, which is what this article is looking at. What people are looking at for Kiper is the range/round that players should go, and for that Kiper has been pretty damn good.

That's like saying Joe Lunardi was wrong because he correctly put 65 of the 68 teams in the NCAA tournament but had Creighton as a 12 seed in Indianapolis but they ended up being a 12 seed in Dayton.

lunardi's final bracket every yr is far better than anything kiper has ever done. to the point, I think he has inside info.

It's an apples to oranges comparison, Lunardi's 68 team bracket (with automatic qualifiers) selection is exponentially easier than guessing the first 2 rounds of the draft when each team values players differently and has different needs.

and trades

Chem PhD '16

Dude you are kidding, right? You linked a page where they are calling his picks wrong if they weren't picked at the EXACT spot he predicted. No mention of whether he was close or not (within a few picks), good grief.

Also it should be noted, in something like a draft, his guesses are based on best available for the need of each team. All it takes is one team going rogue or one big trade in the top 10-15 (this happens literally ever year) for the rest of the first round to be off.

I can't be convinced that he's not just some decades long embedded espn artifact that isn't good at his job, like Berman before him and Dickie v, currently. screamin' A will be on that list very soon.

he's not good at evaluations, but to be honest I haven't paid attn to him in a long, long time. he's just filler for espn that gets ratings because it's the NFL and people like hope.

Part of the reason he is there is because he got in early doing something nobody was really doing, you're right about that. He tracked stats before they were super available and did the legwork to try and evaluate guys. But let's be real, he deserves credit for pioneering that. He is entertainment but he also is fairly accurate in determining the range guys will go. The fact that he has knowledge, and can speak intelligently, about every prospect in the draft is impressive.

Yes, he is not a top scout that can evaluate talent like that but he doesn't have to be. He just needs to know the market, what teams are looking for, and be pretty good at evaluations. Let's be honest, most people don't even know all the players on his big board every year so he does know his stuff to an extent.

decades long embedded espn artifact that isn't good at his job, like Berman before him and Dickie v, currently. screamin' A will be on that list very soon.

Did you just compare Chris Berman to Stephen A. Smith? And then say Boomer was so bad at his job that Stephen A. still hasn't reached Berman's level of inadequacy?

her hasnt made it 20+ yrs there yet. that's my bar. screamin' A is the worst, but Boomer isn't that far behind. both blowhards.

So TL DR, you have an opinion that can't be changed that is founded by not actually reading his material...

I made my opinion on him years ago, then I decided to stop caring what he says. doesn't seem so hard to understand.

Its also not hard to understand why your opinion on this has no validity then. Kinda the trade off I guess.

Imagine what kind of shit people would give him if he predicted a team picking a Kicker in the 2nd round. There are too many teams with piss-poor(and greater than average, tbh) management to expect anyone to get more than a couple picks per round on the nose in their first Mock of the year

as a 49ers fan I would have liked for them to have drafted who he said they should, Robert Quinn, Alshon Jeffery, Odell. But I can also agree that he is a filler for air time on ESPN.

1-0 every week

Wait he gets it "wrong" because he picked Suh and McCoy to go one-two and they, but just to different teams than were in his initial mock draft???? That's exceedingly silly

Chem PhD '16

So where do you suggest we look otherwise for getting insight into the draft? Are you going to make a prediction so we can pick it apart for everything you didnt get right?

it's not my job, shouldn't be his either, but if you want blindly follow him, I really don't give af.

The silly part about this comment is that nobody is blindly following him, we're all just suggesting that what he does isn't an exact science and maybe that he isn't complete "trash" at his job.

Kiper has been consistently wrong for years. Not just one pick. He's mocking Josh Allen has #1 this season and said it's because he just wins and said stats are for losers. You're being generous saying he crushes it 95% of the time.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Kiper is consistently "wrong" and consistently changing his rankings and his drafts because HE GENERATES CONTENT FOR ESPN. With the obvious 1-2 being Rosen and Darnold in some order for the entire CFB year, of course ESPN wants to generate some controversy or newsworthiness... so Kiper "projects" Allen to be #1 QB and #1 off the board, and now it gives the network even more to discuss and talk about as pro days, combine, etc progress.

This is the same network that generates half a dozen or so mock fantasy football drafts among its fantasy experts. If you think Kiper is 100% trying to be right 100% of the time, then you must think Kiper is the stupidest dumbest person ever. Trades screw everything up! Who saw the falcons trading up for Julio Jones. Who saw the Bears trading up for Trubisky? Who saw the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes? The order of the draft itself is so fluid that it's a fool's errand to try to be right. It is NOT a fool's errand to generate content that generates money for the network.

Chem PhD '16

The problem is that he is delivering content that people crave yet it is nearly impossible to be as accurate as people want. 32 teams have different needs for different schemes and evaluate with different scouts.

"with all due respect, and remember I’m sayin’ it with all due respect, that idea ain’t worth a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin gettin’ it on" - Ricky Bobby

So we're acknowledging he's not very good, but still taking his word as gospel. That doesn't seem smart.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

He isn't very good. I'm saying it's with good reason. I don't know who takes his word as gospel, unless by gospel you mean the best written information available, then I would say sure. What isn't smart is thinking that any one person can share the opinion of 32 different general managers.

"with all due respect, and remember I’m sayin’ it with all due respect, that idea ain’t worth a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin gettin’ it on" - Ricky Bobby

documentation ... and need it going all the way back to 84 or it's just words.

i'll wait.

This is such a head scratching hill to die on, but I'll look into a little something to amuse you.

2017 draft: (Round - Pick)
Kiper's Final Mock Draft --Actual Position Drafted
1-1 Mitchell Trubisky -------- 1-2
1-2 Myles Garrett ---------- 1-1
1-3 Soloman Thomas ------- 1-3
1-4 Leonard Fournette-------1-4
1-5 Jamal Adams------------1-6
1-6 OJ Howard--------------1-19
1-7 Deshaun Watson---------1-12
1-8 Christian McCaffrey------1-8
1-9 Jonathan Allen----------1-17
1-10 Hasaan Reddick--------1-13
1-11 Derek Barnett-----------1-14
1-12 Marshon Lattimore------1-11
1-13 Mike Williams-----------1-7
1-14 Charles Harris-----------1-22
1-15 Takkarist McKinley-------1-26
1-16 Corey Davis-------------1-5
1-17 Malik Hooker------------1-15
1-18 John Ross--------------1-9
1-19 Cam Robinson----------2-34
1-20 Ryan Ramcyzck---------1-32
1-21 Jarrad Davis------------1-21
1-22 Reuben Foster----------1-31
1-23 David Njoku------------1-29
1-24 Kevin King-------------2-33
1-25 Patrick Mahomes-------1-10
1-26 Tre'Davious White-------1-27
1-27 Evan Engram-----------1-23
1-28 Marlon Humphrey-------1-16
1-29 Forrest Lamp-----------2-38
1-30 Budda Baker------------2-36
1-31 Jordan Willis------------3-73
1-32 Adoree Jackson---------1-18

27/32 of his 1st round predictions went in the first round. 84.4% accurate on his 1st round predictions

31/32 of his 1st round predictions went within the first 38 picks of the draft. 96.9% of his 1st round predictions were drafted in the first 38 picks.

He had one "egregiously wrong" pick with Jordan Willis being predicted in late 1st round, ultimately going in the 3rd round as the 73rd overall pick.

Source for Kipers final Mock Draft: Kiper's Final 2017 Mock draft

Source for 2017 Draft Selections: Source

wait ... that's 1 round for one year ... that's your basis. what's his data for later round guys, the ones where the real money is made.

i'll still wait.

Wow, talk about moving the goalposts! This article compares Kiper's draft projections with the players actual career accomplishments. It doesn't even attempt to compare Kiper's draft projections to the actual draft. In this author's world, not only is it Kiper's fault if a GM makes an illogical or unpredictable choice, it's also Kiper's fault if Kiper predicts a guy will go in the first round, the guy actually goes in the first round, and then his career is disappointing.

"Our job as coaches is to influence young people's lives for the better in terms of fundamental skills, work ethic, and doing the right thing. Every now and again, a player actually has that effect on the coaching staff." Justin Fuente on Sam Rogers

But that just shows that Kiper is a poor evaluater of talent, regardless of where he projects they are drafted at. Which is the point BCO has been trying to make.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Does Kiper project talent at the next level? Or does Kiper project based on what he knows about what NFL talent-evaluators look for? Not a whole lot of his shtick is "I would do this" as much as it is "I think they would do this"

Chem PhD '16

That might be one of the points BCO is trying to make, but it is certainly not the only one. Such as when he responded to one my comments with a well thought out "trash" and a link to an article about how he didn't accurately predict EXACTLY where each player would go in the first round.

Scrolling through the comments...I don't know who Rowingdave is, but I like him:

What's the deal with Edmunds?
And why in the ham sandwich would we pick him over Josh Jackson or Roquan Smith or... geez... I could just keep going and going...
Posted by smathis on Jan 28, 2018 | 12:13 PM

Because he's a really good football player.
I like Roquan, but he doesn't have the size and versatility of Edmunds. What do you have against Edmunds? Why are you so certain he's an inferior player to Josh Jackson? Edmunds isn't just a workout warrior project, he's a 19 year old All-American linebacker that can play all three positions in a 4-3 under, and he has the size, speed and ability to rush the quarterback.
Posted by Rowingdave on Jan 28, 2018 | 9:04 PM

I hope Big Tim makes a lot of Tech fans eat their words.

Yep, seriously screw any fans who talk shit about players for leaving early. What an absolute betrayal.

I'm sorry, but why do people put stock into Mel Kiper again? He had, what, one good year picking the draft and got dubbed an expert and guru.

Because people like speculation and he's the guy who does it on the biggest sports network in the world. It's that simple. I enjoy hating on ESPN personalities as much as the next guy, but it's the job they gave him.

Because he and McShay do the most leg work of watching and ranking. Hell the USA Today poll earlier this week had Tremaine listed as part of Texas A&M.

Hell the USA Today poll earlier this week had Tremaine listed as part of Texas A&M

Image result for what an idiot gif

Obviously they meant Foster since he's the new DC there.

"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

“When life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

*Looks at the #15 pick*

So who still thinks Josh Jackson gonna be the quarterback for us next year?

You know there is a Josh Jackson who play CB for Iowa right?

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

Oh no I get it it's just that

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

So guys will sit out the actual game for even the slightest of injuries because majority of scouting done during practices. So here's to hoping it's something rather insignificant.

Motu with a fumble recovery in the NFLPA game on FS1

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009