UVA heads to Blacksburg for what could be the last game of the 2018 season. They are a 4.5 point favorite and have a 7-4 overall record and 4-3 conference record.
This is not going to be an easy game but I think it's winnable. First UVA's record belies the fact that their non-conference schedule was soft.
- RIchmond (FCS): 4-7
- Indiana: 5-6
- Ohio: 7-4
- Liberty: 4-6
Regardless of a few cupcakes on the schedule one thing that is apparent from the numbers is that UVA's defense is good. Only one team scored more points against UVA than their S&P+ Offensive rating, NC State. Otherwise UVA's defense has been solid.
| Team | Offensive S&P+ Rank | Offensive S&P+ | UVA Points Against | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 81 | 27.9 | 20 | -7.9 |
| Ohio | 11 | 39.8 | 31 | -8.8 |
| Louisville | 111 | 22.8 | 3 | -19.8 |
| NC State | 25 | 34.8 | 35 | 0.2 |
| Miami | 56 | 29.8 | 13 | -16.8 |
| Duke | 59 | 29.4 | 14 | -15.4 |
| UNC | 65 | 29 | 21 | -8 |
| Pitt | 38 | 32.8 | 23 | -9.8 |
| Liberty | 79 | 28.2 | 24 | -4.2 |
| GT | 28 | 34.5 | 30 | -4.5 |
| VT | 54 | 29.9 |
It should be noted that they seemed to fade down the stretch and it's not clear if that is because of injuries, better competition or something else. I'm fairly sure it's not better competition. On average UVA has held their opponents to 9.5 points less than their season average. For Virginia Tech that is not positive as VT's S&P+ Offensive rating is 29.9. If UVA maintains that performance against Tech's offense that would result in VT scoring 20.4 points.
What about their offense?
| Team | Defensive S&P+ Rank | Defensive S&P+ | UVA Points Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 75 | 29.7 | 16 | -13.7 |
| Ohio | 108 | 35.8 | 45 | 9.2 |
| Louisville | 105 | 35.1 | 27 | -8.1 |
| NC State | 57 | 27.5 | 21 | -6.5 |
| Miami | 13 | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| Duke | 46 | 25.7 | 28 | 2.3 |
| UNC | 99 | 32.9 | 31 | -1.9 |
| Pitt | 71 | 29.5 | 13 | -16.5 |
| Liberty | 126 | 42.8 | 45 | 2.2 |
| GT | 100 | 33.3 | 27 | -6.3 |
| VT | 89 | 31.2 |
UVA's offense underperforms by an average of about 4 points vs. their opponents allowed points.
VT is allowing 31.2 points per game. If UVA underperforms against VT by their typical 4 points they will score 27 points.
That would give us a final score of 27-21 UVA.
There is going to be no room for error. We can't have turnovers or give up special teams touchdowns and the offense absolutely has to score at least 4 touch downs if we are to win.
Go Hokies!
Comments
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.