Justin Fuente's Recruiting Prowess Shouldn't Be Judged Solely On His First Class

Virginia Tech's 2016 recruiting class ranks among the middle-of-the-pack nationally. The Hokies finished 41st in the 247Sports Composite, and 49th by Rivals' score. Why does this matter?

"We want to be competing and, ideally, winning our side of the division," athletic director Whit Babcock told The Key Play in January. "Because if we win our side of the division, then we can have a chance to win the ACC, and when you win the ACC, more often than not, you're in the final four. So we didn't set any victory goals or squeeze them hard, but that's just what we expect at Virginia Tech."

Star power correlates to championships.

These were the last four recruiting class rankings (using Rivals) for the past 10 national champions: pic.twitter.com/JPfftL3K5X— Paul Myerberg (@PaulMyerberg) February 3, 2016

Although, star rankings aren't infallible.

.@coachcornelsen quote "this kid killed a bear...and for some reason Vance Vice likes that about him."— Jon Laaser (@LazeVT) February 5, 2016

You can't put a number on the intangibles (like work ethic and football acumen), or bear killing skills, but more often than not, recruiting rankings govern both the floor and ceiling for future results on the field.

The exceptions prove the rule: Overwhelmingly, setting aside every other conceivable factor that determines success and failure – injuries, academics, even coaching – individual players and teams tend to perform within the very narrow range their initial recruiting rankings suggest. Some percentage of both groups will not. But when it comes to forming expectations, it should go without saying that you never want to count on being one of the anomalies.

If you watched Virginia Tech's Signing Day Live 2016 broadcast, you might have heard Bud Foster downplay the importance of recruiting rankings.

"I think the star rating has blown this thing completely out of whack," Foster said. "It's not important the number of stars the guy has as what kind of football player he is, what kind of person he is."

On the surface, Foster's perspective — one from a highly regarded football coach who evaluates prospects he's recruiting with more detail and frequency than the recruiting services — flies in the face of the statistical analyses above.

However, there's a fit component too, which cannot be overlooked, yet doesn't follow an explicit set of guidelines. There will be 3-star prospects better suited for, and therefore will have more opportunity to thrive in, a particular scheme than a 5-star recruit. A blue chip defensive tackle who lacks twitch and can't ferociously attack a gap will wind up playing offensive line for the Hokies, or transferring.

Moreover, the recruits Tech targets and the ones the recruiting services highly rank often overlap at a high rate. According to the 247Sports Composite, Tech offered all 6 Virginia recruits in 2016 rated 4-stars or higher, and 11 of 12 in 2017 have scholarships on the table from the Hokies.

"We will do our own evaluation here," Justin Fuente said at his introductory press conference. "We will not read other people's evaluations in determining who to recruit."

This is a good thing. It's how Virginia Tech did business under Beamer Co.'s management and it served them well. Fuente is regarded as an excellent talent evaluator. No program, not even Alabama, will sign an entire class of blue chippers. Identifying which low-offer prospects could fill needs is as important as landing the big fish.

For most recruitniks among Hokie Nation, national signing day was a letdown. Even though Tech added two commits (Eron Carter and Tyree Rodgers), there was no marquee flip (Dominique Ross, Tomon Fox, Coney Durr) or splash commit (JaQuan Bailey) on the heels of an impressive week of official visitors and one much ballyhooed ride to the airport.

Just dropped off at the airport. The Future. 4 great young men. Can't wait to see them in Maroon and Orange pic.twitter.com/TCSDrxvscM— Justin Fuente (@CoachFuente) January 31, 2016

Tech addressing its need at wide receiver and landing 4-star JUCO quarterback Jerod Evans was forgotten by many. Evans and WRs Divine Deablo, Eric Kumah and Samuel Denmark all enrolled early, and the misses are fresh on the mind.

Even though signing day was met with a whimper, Justin Fuente's recruiting prowess shouldn't be judged solely by the first crop of recruits he signed as head coach of the Hokies.

Successful relationship building and salesmanship are crucial to recruiting well. Fuente's 9 weeks on the job isn't enough to time to conclusively assess if he is adept or ineffective at either. While it's reasonable to expect an uptick in 2017's class, 2018 might be the earliest to conclude how well Virginia Tech's staff recruits. The recruiting process can start as early as a high schooler's freshman year. Relationships, with prospects, their coaches and families, are cultivated over years. Once Fuente's team plays and wins actual games, he will have his product to sell.

Overwhelming results have not come to fruition, but Fuente is mixing together the ingredients for success. The Hokies recently hired more recruiting staffers. Facilities are top notch. Fuente and Tech's coaches racked up miles on the road throughout December and January. Furthermore, Tech's using some outside the box approachs to spread its brand, build relationships and service Virginia's high school coaches.

ALL 757 coachesWe are coming to YOU #757Hokies #HokieNation #RelationshipGoals pic.twitter.com/zURGdhu8r4— Zohn Burden (@CoachBurdenVT) February 3, 2016

If Virginia Tech wants to compete for ACC Championships and a spot in the playoff, it will have to recruit better. (The Hokies will have to develop and deploy its talent too.) Fuente has a plan in place, he just needs time to see it through.