By the (Advanced) Numbers: East Carolina

Do the statistics even matter? If history is any predictor, Virginia Tech will do worse than expected and probably lose because East Carolina.

But is this Pirates squad the same caliber as the one that upset the Hokies last season? Gone is American Conference Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Shane Carden, and WR targets Justin Hardy (121 catches, 1,494 yards, 10 TDs in 2014) and Cam Worthy (55 catches, 1,016 yards, 4 TDs in 2014). In their place are newcomers that have come within a touchdown of Florida, but also let Towson within 8, and have failed to break 28 points in a game. So should we expect the same efficient passing offense as in the past, or can Hokie Nation finally enter this game with a little more confidence?

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 2-1. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The Hokies are favored in all but two games over the rest of the schedule, but this is based on just a few games. The stretch from NC State through Boston College will largely determine how much luck affects Tech's win total for the season. Statistically, the most likely outcome is 3-1 over those four games (NC State, Miami, Duke, Boston College), but no game is overwhelmingly in one team's favor. 0-4 and 4-0 are completely plausible.

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

To state the obvious, as the season progresses the simulated win totals will converge more with actual wins. As it stands now, there is about a 77% chance of a 7-9 win season. Missing out on a bowl is a small probability, and a 10-win season is on the table too. For the dreamers, there is a 1.1% chance of running the table and being an ACC Championship Game win away from a likely playoff spot. (A sole loss to Ohio State in a season opener which the starting quarterback was injured while the game was competitive would be quickly forgiven by the committee unless the wins are all close from here on out.)

A week or two ago I'd be making an argument that Tech's projected win total should be higher, as ratings are based on two games from a backup quarterback and Michael Brewer will return in a few weeks. However, as we will see below, any argument that our passing offense stands to gain upon his return is baseless at the moment.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

I was tempted to make the case that this is a more comfortable margin than in years past against ECU, but then I looked back on 2014 when computers predicted about the same margin. Of course that doesn't mean they were wrong, so much as it's confirmation that a 10-15 point margin is far from a sure thing. In fact, it is within one standard deviation of an upset. The odds of an 8.5-point favorite winning are 73.6%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Ignore that middle panel for a minute and focus on the left. At this point in the season, Virginia Tech has a higher-rated offense than East Carolina and it's not particularly close. Just soak that in for a bit, and we'll get back to it below in more detail.

That was nice. Now let's move to the middle. The Hokies' defense is above average to be sure, but has not yet been the elite unit anticipated before the season. This is only based on two games (with some preseason rating still having weight), but Saturday would be a great time for the Lunchpail Defense to step up. Ohio State's sudden mortality on offense is not helping Bud's defense look dominant.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

This chart indeed shows Virginia Tech has not just good, but ELITE, passing and standard down offenses. And yes, the numbers have been verified. How does a team that has not racked up eye-popping numbers rank No. 2 in passing offense? Consider that this is based partially on a preseason projection, and then just two games — Ohio State and Purdue. Purdue is rated the No. 50 passing defense. Even though Virginia Tech only attempted 26 passes in the game, they completed over 60% of them, for a solid 9 yards per attempt (only 11 teams in FBS are giving up more than that on the season). More significant is the Brewer/Motley performance against Ohio State — now the No. 1 passing defense in the nation. Against Hawai'i and Northern Illinois, the Buckeyes' defense allowed on average 38% of passes to be completed for 3.8 yards per attempt and a quarterback rating of 48.

Against Virginia Tech? 60% for 7.7 YPA and a rating of 156.11.

I'm not buying that the rating stays elite for the remainder of the season, but I'm buying that those numbers get you the No. 2 rating at this point.

Given that East Carolina has a fairly pedestrian defense across the board, I'm anticipating Motley and company will have at least moderate success against the Pirates with the possibility of an outright points explosion.

When East Carolina Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

It's safe to say this is not business as usual in the Hokies-Pirates series. The East Carolina offense looks somewhat average so far, but so does the Virginia Tech defense. The weakness in the Hokies' defense thus far has been stopping the run, and even if they have not been dominant this year, the Pirates' offense is as pass-happy as ever. Will ECU lean to the run more given the struggles Tech has had stopping it thus far? We will find out Saturday.

Who To Watch Out For

As I mentioned above, there are some new faces on the East Carolina side. However, they fit a similar mold: an efficient passing offense that I like to compare to an aerial version of Georgia Tech. The quarterback gets the ball out quickly on short routes and last year's matchup excepted, they are not reliant on big explosive plays to score.

1. Senior TE Bryce Williams is 6-6 and a clear red zone target — the Pirates will almost certainly target him on jump balls or fades near the end zone.
2. QB Blake Kemp will be a major part of their offense simply by being the quarterback. He is completing over 70% of passes on the season, and has attempted nearly 50 passes per game.
3. Sophomore ILB Jordan Williams is second on the team in tackles and leads the team with 2.5 TFL

Statistical Key to the Game

It would be easy to react to last year's matchup and worry about the long completions, but I still don't believe that is the key to this game, just as I didn't last year. An injured Brandon Facyson was attacked last year, and I don't foresee that being a problem again this year. Just as you slow down Georgia Tech by getting them into situations where they need big yardage, you slow down ECU by forcing them to run longer routes that are slower to develop. The best way to do that is force incompletions, so limiting completion percentage to under 60% will give Virginia Tech a substantial defensive advantage.

Statistical Prediction

I know, I know...East Carolina always plays well against the Hokies... and stats don't matter... and remember 2008? They beat Tech last year at home too, and you can shut up now. This is my article.

East Carolina leans to the rush more as Foster's defense limits their passing attack. They have some success, and finish with 191 yards in the air and 151 on the ground. Brenden Motley keeps the offensive momentum going in the air and on the ground. He eventually takes the game over, and Tech finishes with 311 yards in the air and 234 on the ground. That's what the stats say and who am I to argue?

Virginia Tech 41, East Carolina 24

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.