Halfwits and Wagers is Emotionally Prepared for the Worst

Although we've come, to the end of the road, still we can't let go (of fake gambling lines, some of which turn into real gambling lines).

Let's just get it out of the way.

This season has sucked. Every minute since ECU cancelled their game in Blacksburg has been awful. Everything on the field, everything off it. It simply hasn't been fun.

And now we're probably about to witness the wrong side of history.

So here's what you should do this week. Go eat a big meal on Thursday. Hug your loved ones. Call a Hokie you care about, commiserate a little bit and know that it's all going to be okay.

Because at the end of the day, it's just football. And the Hokies will always be family.

Brian's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 41-43-2 (6-3)

Joey's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 46-39-1 (5-4)

True/False: Ryan Willis has more touchdowns than turnovers

Brian: I felt pretty confident about going true here, until reading French's breakdown of the Wahoo defense. So what you're telling me is that UVA won't give up any of Willis' favorite back shoulder throws (bad), will layer zone on top of zone on top of blitzes to confuse him (bad), and will drop different defensive linemen that will force him to make the right read in the run game (very bad).

This all seems like bad news.

Part of me feels really bad for Willis. He was thrown into an impossible situation of being the backup bridge QB, where he has no real shot of grabbing the starting job long term, even though the guy he took over for didn't exactly set the world ablaze. He also tries really hard, you can't argue anything but.

But his flaws are also hindering the offense more than Josh Jackson ever did (when healthy). And while a QB who "makes the right read most of the time" sounds boring and will often lead to fewer explosive plays, it's those known outcomes that help you weather storms. They put together a string of first downs so the defense has time to compose itself. Jackson is boring, but it's now very clear why he was the starter. I don't know if the record would be any better, but it's tough to think that the offense would be worse than it is now.

(False, by the way.)

Joey: Man, I don't know. I'm just ready for it to be basketball season.

If we're really committed to making another week of picks, I suppose I'll roll with true. UVA's talented secondary is likely to bait Willis into at least a pick or two, but an anemic Hokies' running game does have the sneaky benefit of Willis factoring into just about every Tech touchdown.

God, I'm sad. Go Hokies!

Over/Under: 0.5 snaps by any other QB on the roster

Brian: Remember in 2008, when Virginia came into Lane Stadium to play an average-to-slightly-below-average Tech team? The Hoos were 5-6 and needed a minor miracle to become bowl eligible against a stout Hokie defense.

And so, in desperation, they tried to stun the Hokies with something they hadn't seen before. They took safety Vic Hall, put him at quarterback, and ran the wildcat all game. It felt like more of a stunt than an actual football tactic—until it started working.

Hall gave UVA the lead at halftime while Tech scrambled to make adjustments. It eventually failed, but not because of Hall. At the end of the game with the Hokies up three, Al Groh panicked and put Marc Verica back in on a third a nine from the VT 24 (after Hall peeled off a 39 yard run to get them there). Verica threw a pick. UVA failed to go to a bowl game.

Well, 10 years later we're looking at the same situation. Except the roles are reversed. Virginia is average-to-slightly-below-average, and Virginia Tech is desperately trying to go to a bowl.

Maybe it's Quincy. Maybe it's Hendon. Maybe Jackson Willis Reeds his way into Hokie history. But they have to do something to mix it up. Literally anything. If not, it means the coaches have already accepted what seems like the inevitable.

Joey: I'm not sure who the second QB will be, but this line feels like an easy over.

Quincy Patterson is the obvious choice, as the coaching staff presumably held him out against Miami to have him available for UVA while keeping his redshirt year intact. Assuming Willis starts, I like QP3 to factor into the game plan.

I say "assuming" because I'm writing this on Monday and haven't given up hope that Josh Jackson makes a heroic return to salvage this nightmare of a football season. I mean, if Bryce Watts can play with a fractured forearm, a broken fibula seems like something the medical staff can fix with a roll of heavy duty duct tape.*

*This was a joke. Don't @ me in the comment section with a diatribe on how the medical and/or Strength & Conditioning staff is wildly incompetent.

Over/Under: 10 second half points for Virginia Tech

Brian: If they go with Willis the whole time and the same general game plan that's been rolled out since ODU, it has to be under. We've seen nothing to make us think otherwise.

And since I've seen nothing from Brad Cornelsen to make me think that a curve ball is coming, I'll have to say under.

Joey: It's incredibly depressing — and quite telling — that this is a legitimate line that we debate every week. And for that, we have Brad Cornelsen to thank.

In fairness to Fuente's embattled offensive coordinator, debilitating injuries have started to creep over to his side of the football (admittedly, not to the degree that Bud has endured). As if Josh Jackson going down against ODU wasn't bad enough, the Hokies fielded an offense last week without Deshawn McClease, Eric Kumah, and Hezekiah Grimsley — and production suffered.

That said, at some point Corn needs to make do with what he's got. 10 second half points shouldn't be too much to ask, especially with Tre Turner beginning to emerge onto the scene as a future star.

I don't like this pick one bit, but I'll go over again in the hopes that the offense can be at least somewhat competent.

Over/Under: Virginia Tech 1.5 coaching staff changes in the offseason

Brian: I think that Fuente would legitimately roll into next season with the same staff he has now, if not for any other reason than stubbornness.

But here's what I think he'll do. I think he'll sit down with Bud and make a show of asking exactly what his defensive coordinator needs to right the ship. Coaching, players, resources. Anything. And then when he announces the changes he'll probably make a big show about getting back to the roots of Virginia Tech football with defense, toughness, and DBU.

And when he does that, he'll also be sure to ignore every question about the offensive coaching staff, while he keeps his friend calling plays in the press box. I'm not convinced Cornelsen needs to go—remember, he was the one who piled up yards with Jerod Evans, and hasn't had a QB like that since—but sometimes coaches need to make a change when things get tough.

Joey: Let's go one-by-one.

  • Fuente: 100% safe. Whit can't afford his buyout even if he wanted to fire him. Which he doesn't.
  • Cornelsen: Should be gone but probably safe. Fuente and him have history and the offense was halfway decent in Years 1 & 2. Any change here would likely come from over Fuente's head (which would surprise me).
  • Vice/Wiggins/Burden: More than likely tied to Cornelsen, so probably safe.
  • Shibest: 100% safe. Special teams have been an adventure this year, but that feels more personnel/youth-based than coaching-driven.
  • Bud: FIRE HIS ASS. (Kidding, he's not going anywhere).
  • Wiles: It would be nice if Charley (and the rest of the staff) could recruit a defensive tackle, but Wiles is a fixture in Blacksburg and has Bud's complete trust.
  • Mitchell/Nix/Lechtenberg: This is where I would focus all my time. The defensive back room has taken massive steps back since Torrian Gray left, and safety play this year has clearly regressed. I have no opinion on Lechtenberg other than to say he was an underwhelming hire and is unproven on the recruiting trail. In a perfect world, all three are gone and Whit ponies up a workable budget for Fuente. In reality, I'd say it's likely at least one will move on.

All-in-all, this is a coin toss. There's a low (but real) chance that there's significant turnover on the offensive staff, and there appears to be a few weak links on Bud's side of the house. Factoring in the possibility that someone gets poached away (with Wiggins and Burden being the most likely targets), I'll go over.

Oklahoma (-1.5) @ West Virginia

Brian: Please point me to the last time West Virginia had a clutch win against a big time opponent. Remember when this game was in Morgantown two years ago? The Stoops Troops dropped a 50 spot on Holgorsen and company, including 34 straight to start the game.

Will Grier is fun, but Kyler Murray is a blast. I'll take the Sooners by a field goal to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Joey: Can I take the over instead?

No?

Fine. Will Grier figures to rack up 50+ against a historically bad Oklahoma defense, and Kyler Murray will likely do the same against a "feisty-but-still-West-Virginia" West Virginia defense. With the game being played deep in redneck country, I'll ride with the Mountaineers to win in a shootout.

Michigan -4.5 @ Ohio State

Brian: You know what's emotionally satisfying? Throwing Ohio State in a teaser against Maryland, only to see them play like absolute garbage. I don't like losing money, but I really like watching Urban Meyer struggle, and so it balanced itself out.

But to me, this feels like an overreaction. The Buckeyes haven't played well since their loss against Purdue, and the Wolverines look like the team Jim Harbaugh's promised for the last four years.

But in Columbus, with Dwayne Haskins the better quarterback than Shea Patterson? This is one of those "I'll have to see it before I'd ever bet it" lines to me. I'll have to see Harbaugh actually beat Urban before I'd believe it. Ohio State +4.5, and half an eye on the moneyline.

Joey: In today's edition of "Joey's Worst Bets of All Time", I had Ohio State -14 against Maryland last week. That's what we like to call a 60-minute loser.

That said, this matchup feels weird. Michigan's defense is legit, but Ohio State should have the horses to move the ball in spurts. On the other side, the Buckeyes have been laughably inept against spread attacks, but seemingly match up well against a less dynamic Michigan offense. And with the line at only -4.5, Vegas seems to agree — this isn't a good matchup for Michigan.

The only shrinking source of confidence that I have with Harbaugh's crew here is that at least they don't have a head coach who repeatedly looks like he's about to have a stroke on the sideline. Like, I get the whole Urban plays up mysterious medical ailments when his team loses shtick, but that didn't look like a healthy (or sane) man last weekend. Maybe it's just that his defense sucks.

Michigan -4.5

Washington @ Washington State (-3.5)

Brian: I love Mike Leach so so so so so much.

Like, so much:

But to me this feels like another year where his team loses to a more organized, defensive squad. I like the Huskies and the UW moneyline.

Joey: Making up for my horrendous OSU bet, I also had Washington State -10.5 against Arizona in Pac-12 After Dark last week. And let me tell you, you haven't truly lived until you've watched Mike Leach hang 34 points on Kevin Sumlin in a 15-minute span.

Squaring off against Big Brother is tough, but I like Minshew Mania to continue on the Palouse - WSU 3.5.

The Joey Coogan Memorial "Navy Hits the Over" Lock of the Week.

Brian: Notre Dame is one win away from going undefeated and all but locking up a spot in the top four. USC is reeling, just lost to a bad UCLA squad, playing a freshman quarterback who hasn't looked good in two months, and have possibly quit on Clay Helton.

As of this writing, Notre Dame is an 11 point favorite. I'm trying to find a reason why they don't win by three scores, and I can't.

Joey: The Navy over cruised last week with the Mids "knocking off" (2-9) Tulsa 37-29, bringing the lock of the week back to .500 for the season.

This week, Navy battles Tulane in an 11:00 am New Orleans special (which gives me a headache just to type), and the Green Wave are battling for bowl eligibility (thank you, Google). Neither team is very good, but there will be points!

Over 53.5.

Virginia Tech-Virginia Over/Under: 50

Brian: Let's be generous to Bud Foster and say the Hoos score 31 or less (which i'd say is pretty realistic). Will Willis and the offense be able to muster 20 points? Or will UVA drop 38 like last week and render my question moot?

I tend to creep towards the over here, but I don't feel great about it.

Joey: Love the over here. Bryce Perkins figures to have a big day, and I can't help but think Corn has one last bag of tricks to pull out — 3RD AND QUINCY, ANYONE?

Spread: Virginia -4

Brian: The last time Virginia Tech lost to UVA, the Hokies look like they had quit on Frank Beamer and the 2003 season as a whole. The team chemistry was off, the defense wasn't great, and the offense could barely sputter. All of which sounds familiar in 2018.

My heart is screaming to take the Hokies, if only because I can't bare the thought of losing so many games in Lane Stadium in one season. But that's actually what will make me take Virginia here.

Lane's going to be a ghost town. And the people who do show up will get tense at the first sign of trouble, and leave by the third quarter. That's a really discouraging environment for the young Hokies to play in, and more added pressure on top of the two streaks already on the line. If this game was in Charlottesville, I'd honestly like Tech more.

I love my team, I think they'll turn things around. But it won't happen on Friday.

Joey: I've maintained a comfortable lead over Brian these last two months in part by being logical and repeatedly picking against Tech. Logic would dictate that I do so again.

UVA is the better team, has a dangerous dual-threat quarterback, and has more to play for. Virginia Tech is floundering, has zero proven / healthy quarterbacks, and is sixty minutes away from the worst football season in nearly three decades.

But I'm a Hokie, haven't lost to UVA since the fourth grade, and am not in the mood to start now.

Tech +4. Let's go.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.