BP: Hokies Make a Run in 2020

In light of the bold predictions thread, and with Fuente tempering expectations this year with all of the youth, especially on defense, I wanted to look ahead and see what the future could hold for the Hokies. A lot of people, particularly on other boards, are up in arms with the idea that this could possibly be an 8-4 season, saying Fuente is in year 3, the time to start winning is now, implying or outright stating that if this year is a step back we may need to start looking for a new coach ("someone who can recruit!!"). Anyone who tries to argue with them gets the classic "there will be excuses every year, so when's the year to expect VT to take the next step?" Here's my bold prediction; VT will make a run at the CFP in 2020.

"Why not in 2018?" Really? Be realistic, we're not there yet, way too much youth on the defense, and also mostly unproven youth on the offense. I am hopeful/expecting the offense to take a jump forward this year, but our youth will cost us a game or two.

"Why not 2019?" In short, our lines. Our Offensive line will have to replace 3 starters in Chung, Pfaff, and Nijman. On Defense, we will be replacing both DTs, and our woes in recruiting DTs recently is well documented. Again, I think we can be a good team in 2019, but not CFP good.

"So why is 2020 the year?" So I tried to project the roster in 2020 as much as possible. While I know there will be unforeseen attrition, guys leaving early, etc., I think it could be somewhat accurate, and if it is, I think we have a lot of reason to be excited. So take a look (I put the years of starting experience for the 1st string in parentheses):

*denotes new starter

1. Key positions on offense: Fuente has said the 3 most important positions in his offense are QB, HB, and C. At QB in 2020, we should either have a r-Sr Jackson with 3 years of starting experience, or a more talented, younger QB who has passed him on the depth chart. My biggest hope for 2020 is that whoever the starter is, it's the same person as in 2019, so that they have at least a year of experience. At HB, we should have Sr Keene also with 3 years of starting experience, as well as talented, experienced back-ups in DeIuliis and Mitchell. At center, as things stand right now, it looks like Hoyt is behind Chung at center, so if it stays that way we should have a Senior second year starter at center.

2. Low turnover: It's possible that we will have very little turnover going into 2020.
a. On offense, it may just be replacing Plantin on the line, and we have been recruiting OL really well recently so I am hopeful we can find a talented experienced Guard to step into that spot such as r-Sr Cannon or r-Jr Aiden Brown, whoever is better at that time, or a younger, more talented OL like r-So Harris or r-Fr Hanson can leap the older guys.

b. On defense, we will likely be replacing Hill and Gaines at DE if they both stay through their Senior seasons, but like OL we recruited DE really well in recent classes and at that point should have a really strong and experienced r-Jr class with Debose, Garbutt, Proctor, as well as a Sr in Belmar. I don't think that position should see much drop off. We would also have to replace Floyd if he stays through his Sr year, but he is being backed up by Conner, who would hopefully be ready to step into a starting role after being a back-up for 2 years. The other two positions on D to keep an eye on are Whip and Rover. If Hunter starts the next 2 years and does as well as we hope I think it's possible he goes after 2019, and I don't know who would replace him, but hopefully by then the staff would have a plan. And at Rover, hopefully we would have one of Deablo or Ladler to start. While they may technically be a new starter, I think either could step in without much of a letdown if one leaves early.

c. On special teams, we would hopefully have a Sr Punter in Bradburn, who I can only imagine will be a living legend by then. Also, whoever wins the kicking competition this year should still be on the team in 2020 with 2 years of starting experience under their belt. And don't forget, we just signed the #1 LS in the nation last year who will be a Junior in 2020, woohoo! Not sure who the PR and KR will be but it wouldn't surprise me to see a younger guy get that role this year or next and have at least a year of experience by 2020.

3. Depth and experience: The only way that teams who don't have a roster full of high 4 and 5 star players can challenge for the CFP is to have great experience in the 1st string, and good depth behind them. I think that's exactly what we'll have in 2020. The 1st string doesn't have a ton of highly regarded guys coming out of HS, but from hearing about the Fall camp it seems like coaches got a lot of the evals right, and there is a ton of returning experience. And even in the second string, there are a lot of really solid contributors that I think will turn into great starters when it is there time. (Just a note, for the two deep I tried to not include and 2019 commits. I included the OL because I think they are really talented and should provide depth, and the DTs and RB because those are our weakest positions and I'm willing to bet some, if not all will be in the two deep when they get to VT.)

4. Schedule: In 2020 our crossover opponents in the ACC are BC (of course) and Louisville, which means we miss the likely 3 best Atlantic teams in Clempson, F$U, and NC St. Also, our biggest competition on the Coastal side, Miami, could possibly be breaking in a new QB if current starter Malik Rosier stays their starter through his Sr year. We also get Miami and perennial thorn GT at home. Our toughest game that year should be against Penn St., but even that game is at home, and it's our second game of the season after we begin the year with a tune up game against Liberty at home.

Devil's advocate; why we won't win big in 2020? Here are the biggest foreseeable threats that could be holding us back in 2020 ("here come the excuses!!!"):

1. If something weird happens at QB and we are either starting a new QB that year, or if our starter at the beginning of the year goes down. I said it earlier, but I don't really have a preference for who our QB is at that point, just that they have as much experience as possible. By that, I mean if JJ is still around and starting in 2019, I would hope that he has improved enough to be a really good QB to continue starting in 2020. Or, if Hooker or Patterson have a higher ceiling, I hope we give them starting experience as soon as possible. It seems pretty certain that QP will RS this year, and Hooker still isn't ready to overtake JJ, so I hope if either one ever does overtake JJ, it's for 2019.

2. DT may still be thin. The hardest position to project was DT. The biggest hope is that one or more of the following happen:

a. Hewitt continues to improve and turns into a solid DT.
b. One or more of our current 2019 commits (Kendricks, Dorlus, Pollard) plays as a Freshman and really impresses.
c. We either land a DT grad transfer in 2019, or a stud commit in the 2020 class who is ready to step in as a true freshman, or both.

3. RB. While we may have a r-Sr in McClease, I think the jury is still out as to whether he can be an above average RB. That is putting a lot of eggs in the basket of unproven backs such as Holston and King. I love King's potential, and he should have a year of experience under his belt, but that's a lot of hope to put on a rising Sr in HS. That's another reason I would love to sign another RB in this class (Gary, Dukes, or Griffin).

4. Whip. I think it's pretty wishful thinking that Hunter sticks around that long, though it's possible. If he doesn't, we need to find a back-up plan sooner rather than later. I'm not sure who the back-up plan is currently on the roster.

So that's my bold prediction, VT makes a run at the CFP playoff in 2020. I know these posts don't often age well, but I wanted to give a more thoughtful response to the posters who ask "well if it's not this year, then when?" For teams other than the blue bloods I think it takes special circumstances, the stars aligning, and so forth to have a shot at the CFP, and I think 2020 is our best chance at having that kind of season. I would love to hear what people think!