We picked the outcome for each game, as well as, a confidence of win percentage. Basically we assigned the percentage chance (0-100%) of Tech winning a given game, and then derived our expected wins for the season by adding up the confidences and dividing by 100.
Some commentary follows the table after the jump. Feel free to agree or disagree with us, and leave your picks in the comments.
| Opponent | Eric | French | Kevin | Brian | Joe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | W 65% | W 35% | W 70% | W 65% | W 80% |
| Austin Peay | W 99% | W 100% | W 95% | W 99.99% | W 99.99% |
| at Pittsburgh | W 65% | W 70% | W 80% | W 75% | W 55% |
| Bowling Green | W 95% | W 90% | W 95% | W 95% | W 95% |
| vs. Cincinnati | W 85% | W 90% | W 80% | W 80% | W 75% |
| at North Carolina | W 55% | W 51% | W 65% | W 70% | L 40% |
| Duke | W 85% | W 75% | W 90% | W 90% | W 95% |
| at Clemson | L 40% | L 30% | L 45% | L 50% | L 25% |
| at Miami | W 65% | W 85% | W 90% | W 70% | W 85% |
| Florida State | W 55% | W 51% | L 50% | L 50% | W 51% |
| at Boston College | W 75% | W 95% | W 90% | W 85% | W 85% |
| Virginia | W 90% | W 100% | W 85% | W 70% | W 75% |
| Predictions | 11-1 | 8.74 | 11-1 | 8.72 | 10-2 | 9.35 | 10-2 | 8.999 | 10-2 8.61 |
Eric (BeerControlOffense)
- 10-2, good 11-1, bad 8-4
- The GiT game is going to be full of new tricks in the first half and counters at half time. I like Bud having all year to plan for this, but it's like Paul Johnson hasn't been tinkering too. In the end, in algroh I trust.
- Pitt is going to be a very tough game, Paul Chryst will want to make this a program statement game, but the talent and consistency of the VT program should carry the day.
- UNC is going to be a problem. They have talent, maybe a bit thin in spots, but the Tar Heels will next level talent and a scheme that likes to put pressure on aggressive defenses.
- I really like VT's chances vs Clemson this season due to better lines, but I also thought better about the chances last December. I won't pick VT to win until I see how good the db's are, because I am not sure any can come close to covering Sammy Watkins.
- FSU is back, again or something. Lane will be electric, can that carry day?
- uva will score 14 this year while giving up 30+ ... further humbling Mike London.
French
Georgia Tech- This game is always a war, and there are the added variables of the quality of tackling in Week 1. I think the Hokies win, but we will need to see their best week 1 performance in a long time, especially with tackling, in order to make it happen.
Austin Peay- This is the dress rehearsal for players like RVD, Clarke, and Manning to get snaps and ensure depth. Hokies win because of the offensive line and the passing game against a bad IAA team.
Pitt- Half empty stadium, a noon kickoff, and a stud freshman tailback in Russel Shell. It is a dangerous recipe for an upset that is the byproduct of 3 games in 12 days. Hokies win, but this one may leave a bad aftertaste.
Bowling Green- I know nothing about BG, so let's assume that they run the basic spread. VT excelled against the basic spread last year.
Hokies win.
Cincy- Hokies win. My only doubt stems from playing in Daniel Snyder's cesspool.
UNC- Road game, likely a 1:00pm kickoff because of UNC's scholastic malfeasance. UNC lacks depth, but their offensive line always gives the Hokies fits, and I think Renner is an excellent QB who is mobile enough to work from the spread. On defense, reports are that UNC's top DT is a sure fire top 15 pick, and massive. If Wang and Benedict are not a significant upgrade over Nosal and Brooks, the defense better be really sharp. Hokies win, but again, ulcers will churn.
Duke- Homecoming should be an easy win, but Duke seems to give the Hokies fits. The Duke receivers have made Hokie DB's look bad the last 3 seasons. This is the scariest game on the schedule from a pure upset standpoint. Hokies win, but the alumni may be shaking their heads leaving Lane.
Clemson- The Hokies D struggled against options, no huddle, and counter action in scrimmages. Add playing in Death Valley, and it takes a monster effort to get a win. Anything short of 2 Tajh-overs and holding Clemson under 100 yards rushing and the Hokies can't win the game. Clemson, with the Hokies getting a 30% shot.
Miami- Let down game in the middle of a big stretch, in front of an empty stadium. Still, I am hoping the U on the helmet brings out the hate. Hokies win.
FSU- Thursday night in Blacksburg. The FSU offense is tailor made for Bud Foster's defense to stop, and shaky QB play will be the nail in the coffin... unless the Hokies can't deal with the FSU pass rush. I think the Hokies win, but Logan must have his best game as a Hokie.
Boston College- It would take a catastrophe for the Hokies to lose this game. BC has a better chance of beating VT in bass fishing.
UVA- It is UVA. Hokies win. Mike London recruits 2 stars to get over it.
Kevin
I think 10-2 is a good mark for this team. This could obviously be better (11-1, 12-0) if the O-Line gels quickly and Logan Thomas has a year where he could leave and be the #1 pick in the NFL draft or could be a lot or worse (9-3, 8-4) if some starters get injured on defense and the skill guys on offense struggle out of the gate.
Our depth concerns me, especially in the secondary, which is why pass-happy teams like FSU and Clemson seem to have an advantage on us in my eyes. I don't expect any losses like last year's to Clemson, but I think the relative youth could cause us to slip up in Death Valley and at home against FSU. I think both games could go either way but I don't see us getting through that stretch unscathed.
Outside of those two games, Pitt, Cincinnati, and UNC are very tricky games. You'd think Carolina would be playing with a higher intensity seeing as how they won't have a postseason, so big conference games could serve as a "bowl game" of sorts (apply the term loosely). UNC has always played us tough and who knows what Pittsburgh and Cincinnati could bring. Pitt typically caused problems in the Big East days and the first road game, despite time and/or location, is usually a little rougher than expected (see: ECU, 2008, 2011).
And, of course, we will beat UVA and be one win away from making "A Decade of Dominance" shirts.
Brian
- I'm a little more confident about the Georgia Tech game than I though I would be. Obviously it'll be a huge game that will have an effect on the rest of our season.
- I still don't think we can beat Clemson. No matter what, I think that offense will still kick our ass unless HUGE adjustments are made.
- In my opinion, I think Tech actually matches up really well with Florida State. Add to the fact that it's on a Thursday night, and I really think we could beat them...I just like to expect the worst.
- If all falls in to place, this should be a team that beats the teams it is better than...which is 10 out of 12 teams on the schedule. I don't really see a stupid loss, unless Pitt gets us in week three.
Joe
Georgia Tech will be a brawl, a battle of strengths, that won't be decided until the fourth quarter. Like last year, I think Logan will be the difference maker. With each passing season, Bud has done a better job of anticipating what adjustments Paul Johnson is going to make, and how to stop them.
UNC is going to be a very tough game, one that I think we'll lose. A veteran quarterback, protected by a talented, experienced offensive line, playing in an aggressive offense. I think it's going to be tough for us to get pressure with just the front-four, when we start sending more bodes, the defensive backs will have a hard time holding it down. UNC can't play in a bowl this year, and outside of NC State, this is the biggest game on their schedule. They'll be pumped and ready to rumble at home.
I can't pick us to win on the road in Clemson, not after they beat us in Lane and in Charlotte. If they struggle to replace Dwayne Allen and the o-linemen they lost, then I'll feel better about our chances. But Sammy Watkins is a burner, on the field, and in a car. We also struggled to move the ball on them consistently.
Miami has a thin roster, we're fortunate to play them late in the season. I think the players on their roster ready to play I-A ball, will little of them are left, will be fatigued and we should be able to win comfortably in a closer-on-the-scoreboard game.
I will stop making, "FSU's back jokes," if they win this game. Unless they lose to Wake, again, then all bets are off.
Virginia's getting better players, but a lot of them are skills guys. They don't have depth at the no-name positions that win football games. Also, quarterback roulette is a dangerous game, and they're forced to play it.
Comments
"Sammy Watkins is a burner, on the field, and in a car." *ZING*
Toughest Games
Toughest games, in my opinion, are GT and Clemson, but I do believe the Clemson game will be much closer this year. I don't see why the offense can't put up 25-35 points in that game, if they keep the turnovers down. I think VT is feeling a little too confident about the GT game, as they finally won convincingly in 2011. One or two turnovers here or there and GT wins easily.
Aside from AP, BG, Duke, and UVA, every other game will take a solid game to ensure victory. VT will probably win 10 games, beating one time they're expected to lose to (Clemson or FSU) and losing to one team it shouldn't (UNC, Pitt, Cincy, etc.).
2012 Prediction
Georgia Tech: Loss. You might think opening with GT is an advantage. I think it's not. CPJ will have a bunch of new tricks up his sleeve and none of them will be on film. 0-1
Austin Peay: Loss. Lighting strikes twice. You're always banged up the week after playing GT and with just five days between games that'll be amplified. 0-2
Pittsburgh: Loss. First road test against a team with a pretty good defense in its own right and Ray Graham should be back. 0-3
Bowling Green: Loss. #MACtion. 0-4
Cincinnati: Their quarterback is named Munchie Legaux Jr. QED. 0-5.
North Carolina: Loss. Tough road game. UNC still has a bunch of talent on campus and Fedora has the kind of offense that we've struggled with. If anyone goes down in the secondary, we'll get lit up. 0-6.
Duke: Loss. The Blue Devils keep improving and have a tendency to play us closer than we'd like. This year they get us. 0-7.
Clemson: Loss. I mean, they crushed us twice last year an this year it's in Death Valley. Chad Morris has our number. 0-8.
Miami: Loss. Another tough road game. Miami gets revenge for last year. 0-9.
Florida State: Loss. Noles will breeze to 14-0 and win the national title. 0-10.
Boston College: Win. I can't even bullshit you here. 1-10.
Virginia: Loss. This is how it works. In year 1, the new UVa coach upsets a paper tiger (or paper Tiger) ACC team and "makes inroads in recruiting." In year 2, the new UVa coach makes a bowl, wins ACC COY and "starts bringing in talent to close the gap." In Year 3, the new UVa coach beats VT. Then in year 4 they return to Wahooing. 1-11.
Final Record: 1-11. :(
crapped all over
baldwin.
Here we are.
2012 season prediction
GT- loss. I don't have as much confidence in a night game at home since our 2005 loss against the U. I think we'll lose a close one because of CPJ's ability to regularly fool us with the same triple option he's used for years which nearly everyone else has figured out.
Austin Peay - win. This team really really REALLY sucks.
Pitt - win but Ray Graham walks away with triple digit yards and at least one touch. I will become much more nervous about this game if Pitt pulls the win at Cincy.
Bowling Green - Win although I believe portions of this game will be annoying to watch.
Cincy - Cincy's star DE is 10 lbs lighter and an inch shorter than LT3. Munchie gained a whopping 7 lbs in the off season and is 90lbs lighter than James Gayle. Butch Jones moved their best QB to WR for some reason. Team was practicing in Indiana so I couldn't get a picture with Munchie. We win both the game and the combined flipcup tournament that's over 1 year in the making.
UNC - Win but it'll be close. I think if we get ahead early, we'll take the game with room to spare. If we keep it close, this may be loss #2 on the season.
Duke: win but again, portion of this game will be annoying to watch.
Clemson: win because i think this will be the one game this year where everything goes right. I also think this game won't be very close and will similar to our last game at clemson.
Miami: loss due to the hangover from the clemson win.
Florida State: win due to the anger from the miami loss due to the hangover from the clemson win
BC: win but see duke/bgsu
UVA: win but this game will probably be close. Phillip Sims will be comfortable by this point which will lead to a somewhat competent offense. I just hope we have a more solid RB picture so we can respond in kind. I also hope LT3 doesn't have too much NFL brain fog by this point in the season.
Overall record: 10-2.
Glad to see I'm not the only one that is a little worried about Pitt.
I honestly think we should be favored in every game this year. Which is not to say I think we'll win them all. There will be a hiccup or two along the way, most likely against GT, Pitt, UNC, Clemson, or FSU. Honestly not that worried about the rest of them. You have to be careful against Duke, and I suppose Cincy, Miami, or UVA could shock us on a bad day, but those are games we should win 9 out of 10 times.
French, if you think we beat VT, why is the percentage chance of winning lower than 50?
Favored in Death Valley?
The only way I see that happening is if Clemson loses to GT, FSU and Auburn, we're undefeated, and the game isn't at night.
Pitt is a decent team; the problem last year was that Todd Graham never wanted to be at Pitt in the first place. I think Chryst is a bit more motivated to coach the team plus if they pull the opening road victory against Cincy, this could be the makings of a very underrated squad.
All this being said, Tino Sunseri is a damned idiot. So who knows.
Because, I have no confidence when we play Georgia Tech. As I noted in my preview for GT last year, watching as a VT fan is really "death by a thousand cuts."
2012 Season Prediction
GT- confidence 80% GT will be a tough game but it's pretty blatant thier record when any team has more than a week to prepare for that predictable offense, add that to the fact they have no receivers with game experience to open the running game and we win Handily. Al Groh is always a benefit for us, i dont see why people keep calling him a defensive "genius" when we consistently beat up his defenses for a decade
Austin Peay confidence 99% the only reason i didnt put 100% is because the short time to prepare, but i think after GT the wheels will be running on all cylinders
Pitt- confidence 60% i think we win, but the only reason i put this so low is its been a long time since we played them and they could be capable of anything
Bowling Green- Confidence 100% they should be in the FBS i mean really? no chance they come out with a win
Cincy- confidence 90% i wish they would have made this game in Blacksburg and gave me another home game ticket, but no way i'm paying to goto DC to see them play Cincy, hands down a win
UNC- confidence 60% this will be a win, but i do agree with the comments that they have very tough lines and a veteran QB, lets hope Bud has the defense ready, i dont buy that they play better because this is their "bowl" if anything i think they play worse because some of them just might not care
Duke- 95% Duke is Duke but they still give us fits and sometimes we seem to play down to thier level and allow the games to be close when they shouldn't
Clemson- confidence 55% I think we come out with vengeance and win a close one but i hope that we embarrass them in their stadium again like they did us, my aunt is a professor at Clemson so i always hate them especially after last season, i think we have an advantage with the new DC they have changing things around
Miami- Confidence 80% always a close game but they haven't beaten us in how many years? i dont see them this year, i think their QB Stephen Morris is a bit of a joke and not capable of leading them to a costal crown
FSU- Confidence 60% they are a real tossup, i think we can take them, i agree that Fosters D is set up perfectly to stop their offense or at least limit them enough for us to outscore
BC- confidence 100% call me when they get a team, i mean seriously
UVA- confidence 99% UVA is getting better but just does not have what it takes to beat us, Phillip Simms will learn very quick that its quite a bit different playing behind UVAs offensive line as opposed to Bama's
I really think the only tossups this year are Clemson and FSU, if we can beat both i have a high belief in a possible undefeated season, but thats only happened once, so more likely one loss with a trip to Charlotte where we will either play clemson or FSU again and i'm not confident in beating either twice in a season
10+ wins is very feasible
GO HOKIES!
50/50 confidence: clemson -- their defense, for whatever reason, owned up last year. thank god their dline takes a hit. that should help. i think we'll be better preared for their defense this year though and their secondary doesn't look strong (and their dline is weaker) .. we'll put up more points this year. they have a young oline. match that up with a 2-deep ruthless dline and it's a recipe for disaster. boyd hasn't played well when facing lots of pressure. if our defensive line can dominate with pass rush and keep the running game under control, i think we eek this one out in a high scoring one.
Massey Predictions
http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8459&s=181623
Masseys computer predictions include:
Close (3 or less points) losses to Fl St & Clemson.
Close (3 or less points) wins over Pitt, Cincy, NC, and Miami.
12-0 baby.
Defense Has to Carry Us
GT will definitely be a battle, and without the help of Attaochu's right hook who knows what happens last year. But they don't have Stephen Hill this year, Washington struggles to throw the ball, and I think the Hokies escape a close one.
AP: ... 2-0
Pitt: This game will be tough on the road, but don't forget that this team is installing a new system. Paul Chryst will be a very good coach, but this will be a tough one, and I think the defense pulls through.
BG: ... 4-0
Cincy: Lost most of their firepower on offense, Bud Foster has handled most basic spread offenses well, and Hokies size and depth will make the difference. 5-0
UNC: This is an intriguing game, and UNC certainly has talent and always plays us close. Barring injuries, I like our defense to have a good game in Chapel Hill and LT3 to connect on some big passes late to seal it. 6-0
Duke: Duke will play hard, Vernon will be good, but Hokies just too deep. 7-0
Clemson: Hard to pick the Hokies here, especially considering last two meetings. But you know Bud Foster has been through that tape more times than you check Twitter each day. I think it will be close, Hokies have a chip on their shoulder, and special teams makes the difference in a huge road win. 8-0
Miami: Fortunately this game is on a Thursday, because I'd be more concerned if it were the Saturday immediately after Clemson. Miami struggling keeping guys eligible and on the field, and the rivalry will bring out the best in the Hokies. 9-0
FSU: I'm not sure how well our O-Line will hold up against the FSU front 4, especially Jenkins. But I think the Hokies front 4 could also have a big game. If the FSU talent plays up to potential, I think they win, but who knows on a Thursday night in Lane Stadium. I'm going with the loss, but I think this is a toss-up. 9-1
BC: ... 10-1
UVA: UVA coming to Blacksburg... That's all she wrote. Wahoos will have made adjustments from last year, but this defense is better than the one that shut them out... 11-1
I think Hokies will end up 11-1 (maybe 10-2, or maybe 12-0, who knows?) and be headed to another New Years bowl game
bad idea
if I was to try and predict our season right now we would beat everyone 38-0. I drink way too much of a koolaid the final weeks leading up to kickoff and convince myself that we will blow through every team:
Don't we all? I was about to say the same thing. But for the hell of it, I'll post some predictions.
I will second (or third) that
14-0. I can never predict a Hokie loss.
Prediction Time
GT: Tough hard fought game where the defense has a little bit of trouble with assignments (as usual when we play them) and we get hit by at least one deep bomb in the relatively inexperienced secondary. O-Line has to gel quickly to give Logan time to throw and give us some help in the running game with two fresh faces at tailback. W, 55% CFD
APeay: Win. No extraneous detail necessary. 100% CFD they won't pull a JMU.
@Pitt: They don't have Larry Fitzgerald anymore. QB position is kind of a liability for them. We have a stout front 7 that keeps Ray Graham relatively in check. W, 80% CFD
BG: Once again, no extra detail. W, 90% CFD
Cincy: Strong defense and a gelling O-Line allows us to steamroll through them. 85%
@UNC: I'm a little worried about this game simply because the Tarheels have had the tendency to play big against us and in some cases pull the upset (I hated that Thursday night in BBurg a few years ago. I was almost crying along with RW). Their spread offense hurry up that Gary Pinkel is bringing from Mizzou might give the D a little trouble in the first half but I think with D-Line subs and maybe a few subs in the secondary (hopefully Manning and Riley got a little experience in APeay and BG games), we can adjust when it counts. W, 60% CFD
Duke: Praying to God it won't be a nail-biter this season. Come on, it's not basketeball guys. W, 93% CFD
@Clemson: Toughie. Big game at their place... Probably primetime if the season has gone well for both parties to this point in the season (and I expect it to). It's going to be a tight game all the way through, I don't think we get blown out like last year at home... I'm going to say it's a W but I'm probably going to eat through a few fingernails watching this one. W, 33% CFD
@Miami: The excitement, tension, thrills, and celebration of the final drive last season were all well and good. But this season, Sebastian the Ibis is the first bird to flee when he sees this Hokie Hurricane coming. W, 85% CFD
FSU: The 'Noles are supposed to have a top 5 defense this season, so all the "experts" say. I won't believe it until I see it. I believe that we have the potential to squash their hopes of being "back," whatever that means, erase their National Title hopes, and send them crying back to Tallahassee. However, if the pundits predictions err to the side of truth, this could be big trouble in little China, folks. L, 51% CFD
@Boston College: W. 90% CFD
UVA: It's a lock. At home? Are you kidding me? Might as well pencil this one in right now. W, 100% CFD.
ACCCG vs. FSU: Rematch. We win this time and send them crying all the way home. Virginia Tech is "BACK" on top, wearing the ACC Crown.
Regular season record (12-1)
FSU had a top 5 defense last year
They were 4th in total defense and scoring defense. They return 7 starters, and all of the front 7 for 2012 were starters last year (one safety moved to LB). However, they have new starters in each position in the backfield. Losing Greg Reid is going to hurt, it'd be like losing Kyle Fuller. But, the only really potent passing attacks they'll play are Clemson, Duke, and NC State if Glennon gets to that next level. (Sidenote: can we call VT potent passing attack now? Does LT3 as a 3000 yd passer qualify?). So, they will probably have a top 10 defense for sure and wouldn't be surprising if they get top 5 again.
Don't Doubt it
I don't doubt their defense is going to be good. From what I've heard their D-Line and backers are going to be as fear-mongering as ours. What I'm really kinda shaking my head at is all the ESPN guys going "EJ Manuel is gonna win the Heisman."
Seriously, Herbstriet. He won't. And they won't win the National Title. Shut the hell up.
11-1 is a solid prediction for this year's team. We definately have the talent to go 11-1 or possibly undefeated... HOWEVER I have a bad feeling Fuller or Exum goes down at some point and our secondary gets exposed to possibly Kelmpson or UNC. It's a good possibilty we'll drop one of those two. With our recent struggles with Klempson, I would lean towards saying that we lose a close one to them and win a close one in Chapel Hill. I'll say a 40% chance to win in Death Valley and a 56% to win in Chapel Hill.
I'm thinking GT will be close, but with the help of LT3 we get a couple of big time plays late in third quarter and then maybe a big defensive stop in the fourth to seal the win.
Austin Peay, Pitt, BG - VT wins easily over AP, ugly win at Pitt, solid win over BG.
Cincy - hard fought win at FedEx, Cincy plays better than expected. Duke - closer than expected at the beginning, HOkies pull away in 2nd half. Miami - another close game like last year, but LT3 makes another 2 or 3 big time plays to lead VT to another win over the U.
FSU - I can really see this game going either way as well. I'm hoping if everyone is healthy, VT can thump FSU at home on a Thursday night. If we are overconfident and have won big games at Klempson, UNC, and Miami, I think it's a good chance we choke at home and lose by 1 or 2 scores to a solid FSU team. I'll go with at least a one loss VT team at this point coming up with a big time win that will be the highlighted game of the 2012 season (like Miami was last year).
BC and UVA - Easy win over BC, maybe ugly play at times. UVA - another win over the Hoos... enough said.
VT to ACCCG against a rematch with FSU - I'll be optimistic and say that the VT secondary comes a long way over the course of the season, Fuller and Exum are healthy, LT3 is playing high and VT grinds out a close one in Charlotte and heads to the Orange Bowl.
Here's to hoping the O-Line plays consistently well during the season, Bud's D has a great year finishing in the top-5 in the nation, and LT3 lives up to his hype.
Florida State is the real question mark. If healthy, I don't think that FSU's scheme moves the ball on the Hokies. At the same time, if this offensive line isn't playing FAR better than last year's, the Hokies will have an awful time with the pass rush. If there was every a game where we could see Beamer Ball (which has been very quiet or flat out outplayed in big games lately) win a game for us, Florida State will be it.
If you want a preview, watch some of the Week 1 FSU vs Miami games from around 2002-2005. Horrible football to watch, but terrific effort and physicality.
Predictions
Win
Win
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Win
14-0, 100% confidence
Pass the koolaid
i know mine says 11-1
but i think 10-2 is far more likely, just don't know the other loss.
Agreed. Between GT, Pitt, UNC, and FSU, there is a loss sitting on the table unless we see a much better team up front.
I'm thinking 11-1
We lose only one out of GT, Clemson, and FSU, and the team we lose to ends up getting to lose to us in the ACCCG (Homer Goggles are in full effect)
unless it's GT...
can't really play them in the ACCCG.
Yeah...
I was implying something there
Dan Patrick picked us to win the national title and lt3 to win the heisman this morning. i think he did it for more of a shock value than anything. i can see us going 11-1, or 10-2 and dropping clemson and/or fsu. i also agree with joe, the unc game really could be a close one a may be an l. i really hope not. 6 more days...cant wait