We picked the outcome for each game, as well as, a confidence of win percentage. Basically we assigned the percentage chance (0-100%) of Tech winning a given game, and then derived our expected wins for the season by adding up the confidences and dividing by 100.
Some commentary follows the table after the jump. Feel free to agree or disagree with us, and leave your picks in the comments.
|Georgia Tech||W 65%||W 35%||W 70%||W 65%||W 80%|
|Austin Peay||W 99%||W 100%||W 95%||W 99.99%||W 99.99%|
|at Pittsburgh||W 65%||W 70%||W 80%||W 75%||W 55%|
|Bowling Green||W 95%||W 90%||W 95%||W 95%||W 95%|
|vs. Cincinnati||W 85%||W 90%||W 80%||W 80%||W 75%|
|at North Carolina||W 55%||W 51%||W 65%||W 70%||L 40%|
|Duke||W 85%||W 75%||W 90%||W 90%||W 95%|
|at Clemson||L 40%||L 30%||L 45%||L 50%||L 25%|
|at Miami||W 65%||W 85%||W 90%||W 70%||W 85%|
|Florida State||W 55%||W 51%||L 50%||L 50%||W 51%|
|at Boston College||W 75%||W 95%||W 90%||W 85%||W 85%|
|Virginia||W 90%||W 100%||W 85%||W 70%||W 75%|
|Predictions||11-1 | 8.74||11-1 | 8.72||10-2 | 9.35||10-2 | 8.999||10-2 8.61|
- 10-2, good 11-1, bad 8-4
- The GiT game is going to be full of new tricks in the first half and counters at half time. I like Bud having all year to plan for this, but it's like Paul Johnson hasn't been tinkering too. In the end, in algroh I trust.
- Pitt is going to be a very tough game, Paul Chryst will want to make this a program statement game, but the talent and consistency of the VT program should carry the day.
- UNC is going to be a problem. They have talent, maybe a bit thin in spots, but the Tar Heels will next level talent and a scheme that likes to put pressure on aggressive defenses.
- I really like VT's chances vs Clemson this season due to better lines, but I also thought better about the chances last December. I won't pick VT to win until I see how good the db's are, because I am not sure any can come close to covering Sammy Watkins.
- FSU is back, again or something. Lane will be electric, can that carry day?
- uva will score 14 this year while giving up 30+ ... further humbling Mike London.
Georgia Tech- This game is always a war, and there are the added variables of the quality of tackling in Week 1. I think the Hokies win, but we will need to see their best week 1 performance in a long time, especially with tackling, in order to make it happen.
Austin Peay- This is the dress rehearsal for players like RVD, Clarke, and Manning to get snaps and ensure depth. Hokies win because of the offensive line and the passing game against a bad IAA team.
Pitt- Half empty stadium, a noon kickoff, and a stud freshman tailback in Russel Shell. It is a dangerous recipe for an upset that is the byproduct of 3 games in 12 days. Hokies win, but this one may leave a bad aftertaste.
Bowling Green- I know nothing about BG, so let's assume that they run the basic spread. VT excelled against the basic spread last year.
Cincy- Hokies win. My only doubt stems from playing in Daniel Snyder's cesspool.
UNC- Road game, likely a 1:00pm kickoff because of UNC's scholastic malfeasance. UNC lacks depth, but their offensive line always gives the Hokies fits, and I think Renner is an excellent QB who is mobile enough to work from the spread. On defense, reports are that UNC's top DT is a sure fire top 15 pick, and massive. If Wang and Benedict are not a significant upgrade over Nosal and Brooks, the defense better be really sharp. Hokies win, but again, ulcers will churn.
Duke- Homecoming should be an easy win, but Duke seems to give the Hokies fits. The Duke receivers have made Hokie DB's look bad the last 3 seasons. This is the scariest game on the schedule from a pure upset standpoint. Hokies win, but the alumni may be shaking their heads leaving Lane.
Clemson- The Hokies D struggled against options, no huddle, and counter action in scrimmages. Add playing in Death Valley, and it takes a monster effort to get a win. Anything short of 2 Tajh-overs and holding Clemson under 100 yards rushing and the Hokies can't win the game. Clemson, with the Hokies getting a 30% shot.
Miami- Let down game in the middle of a big stretch, in front of an empty stadium. Still, I am hoping the U on the helmet brings out the hate. Hokies win.
FSU- Thursday night in Blacksburg. The FSU offense is tailor made for Bud Foster's defense to stop, and shaky QB play will be the nail in the coffin... unless the Hokies can't deal with the FSU pass rush. I think the Hokies win, but Logan must have his best game as a Hokie.
Boston College- It would take a catastrophe for the Hokies to lose this game. BC has a better chance of beating VT in bass fishing.
UVA- It is UVA. Hokies win. Mike London recruits 2 stars to get over it.
I think 10-2 is a good mark for this team. This could obviously be better (11-1, 12-0) if the O-Line gels quickly and Logan Thomas has a year where he could leave and be the #1 pick in the NFL draft or could be a lot or worse (9-3, 8-4) if some starters get injured on defense and the skill guys on offense struggle out of the gate.
Our depth concerns me, especially in the secondary, which is why pass-happy teams like FSU and Clemson seem to have an advantage on us in my eyes. I don't expect any losses like last year's to Clemson, but I think the relative youth could cause us to slip up in Death Valley and at home against FSU. I think both games could go either way but I don't see us getting through that stretch unscathed.
Outside of those two games, Pitt, Cincinnati, and UNC are very tricky games. You'd think Carolina would be playing with a higher intensity seeing as how they won't have a postseason, so big conference games could serve as a "bowl game" of sorts (apply the term loosely). UNC has always played us tough and who knows what Pittsburgh and Cincinnati could bring. Pitt typically caused problems in the Big East days and the first road game, despite time and/or location, is usually a little rougher than expected (see: ECU, 2008, 2011).
And, of course, we will beat UVA and be one win away from making "A Decade of Dominance" shirts.
- I'm a little more confident about the Georgia Tech game than I though I would be. Obviously it'll be a huge game that will have an effect on the rest of our season.
- I still don't think we can beat Clemson. No matter what, I think that offense will still kick our ass unless HUGE adjustments are made.
- In my opinion, I think Tech actually matches up really well with Florida State. Add to the fact that it's on a Thursday night, and I really think we could beat them...I just like to expect the worst.
- If all falls in to place, this should be a team that beats the teams it is better than...which is 10 out of 12 teams on the schedule. I don't really see a stupid loss, unless Pitt gets us in week three.
Georgia Tech will be a brawl, a battle of strengths, that won't be decided until the fourth quarter. Like last year, I think Logan will be the difference maker. With each passing season, Bud has done a better job of anticipating what adjustments Paul Johnson is going to make, and how to stop them.
UNC is going to be a very tough game, one that I think we'll lose. A veteran quarterback, protected by a talented, experienced offensive line, playing in an aggressive offense. I think it's going to be tough for us to get pressure with just the front-four, when we start sending more bodes, the defensive backs will have a hard time holding it down. UNC can't play in a bowl this year, and outside of NC State, this is the biggest game on their schedule. They'll be pumped and ready to rumble at home.
I can't pick us to win on the road in Clemson, not after they beat us in Lane and in Charlotte. If they struggle to replace Dwayne Allen and the o-linemen they lost, then I'll feel better about our chances. But Sammy Watkins is a burner, on the field, and in a car. We also struggled to move the ball on them consistently.
Miami has a thin roster, we're fortunate to play them late in the season. I think the players on their roster ready to play I-A ball, will little of them are left, will be fatigued and we should be able to win comfortably in a closer-on-the-scoreboard game.
I will stop making, "FSU's back jokes," if they win this game. Unless they lose to Wake, again, then all bets are off.
Virginia's getting better players, but a lot of them are skills guys. They don't have depth at the no-name positions that win football games. Also, quarterback roulette is a dangerous game, and they're forced to play it.