It's Basketball Season! FSU Preview

With college football coming to an uninspiring end, it’s time to switch gears and focus on college basketball. For those that haven’t been keeping tabs on this season, you’re not alone. The Hokies are priming themselves for another run to the bubble and have a big game tonight against Florida State. Here’s a preview:

Who: Virginia Tech Hokies (11-4, 0-1) vs Florida State Seminoles (9-6, 0-1)

When: Tuesday, January 10 @ 7:00 p.m.

TV: ESPNU (Carter Blackburn and Jay Williams)

Where: Cassell Coliseum (9,847), Blacksburg, VA

The Opponent: Florida State comes to the Cassell as desperate, if not more so, than the Hokies after just one conference game. The ‘Noles were dumptrucked by 20 in their conference opener at Clemson on Saturday and have lost 3 of their last 4 overall. This is a big game for FSU as they host North Carolina (in addition to ESPN’s College Gameday) this Saturday, which could make them 0-3 in conference if they can’t win Blacksburg.

Things haven’t changed much in Tallahassee, as the mantra is still “Defense, Defense, Defense.” The ‘Noles have led the nation in field goal percentage defense in each of the last two years and are holding opponents to just 36 percent shooting this year, a little bit off their record pace of last year. The offense has been a bit better this year, but has failed them on some occasions, leading to their 6 losses. FSU has scored at least 73 points in all of their wins, but have failed to reach 70 in each of their regulation losses this year (they’ve scored 70+ in both of their OT losses).

Here’s a look at their potential starting five:

Michael Snaer is the ‘Noles best offensive threat, leading the regulars with 13.2 points per game. He’s a dynamic guard who can beat you off the dribble as well as pull up from outside and drain a three. He’s FSU’s best three-point shooter at 35%, but that isn’t saying much. Deividas Dulkys and Luke Loucks are typically good shooters from deep, but they’ve combined to hit just 31/95 treys this year.

The real strength for FSU is their size inside. This matchup has usually caused problems for Tech in recent years and it could be a mismatch again this year. Bernard James, Xavier Gibson, and Okaro White off the bench have combined for nearly half of Florida State’s rebounds on the season, and they’re a forced on the offensive end as well as the defensive end. FSU is one of the best in offensive rebounding, grabbing nearly 40% of their misses. Tech did a pitiful job against a weak rebounding team in Wake Forest on Saturday, and this is a lot tougher task. Hopefully Greenberg has had the guys working on rebound drills this week (as well as zone offense, but that’s another story).

One guy to keep an eye on is 6-3 guard Ian Miller. He missed the first 11 games of the season due to being academically ineligible, but since returning, he’s been on fire. In his first four games, he’s netting 13.8 ppg and shooting a solid 40% from the field.

For Tech to win this game, they’re going to need to take advantage of Florida State’s sloppy play. The ‘Noles average over 18 turnovers per game and are one of the worst in the conference with a -1.7 turnover margin. The Hokies need to create turnovers, get out on the fast break and score in transition. As we’ve seen, Tech struggles in the halfcourt and will have its hands full with a lengthy Florida State team.

Despite all that worries me about Florida State, I think Tech can pull one out at home in a gritty, ugly game. But hey, a win is a win, especially in conference play. Expect a spirited battle, as both teams can ill-afford to go 0-2 in conference play.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 62, Florida State 60