By the Advanced Numbers: Old Dominion

With 130 FBS teams, it is difficult for even diehard college football fans to keep up with every program. As a result, teams without a significant history or current relevance quickly fall off the radar and blend in together. The 88th best team isn't thought of as being any better than the 128th best team, even though at the other end of the spectrum fans would clearly distinguish the 1st from the 40th.

As a result, unless you have some personal connection you likely have no clue what to think about Old Dominion and likely couldn't guess their rank within 10 positions.

What if I told you that the Monarchs finished 2016 ranked 73rd in S&P+, right in between Duke and Oregon? Or that they went 10-3 and led the country in expected turnover margin?

Now that I have your attention...

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 3-0, and for the second straight year thoroughly dismantled their former kryptonite of East Carolina. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

12-0 is still in play! The chance of an undefeated regular season rose from 0.18% to 0.63%. Clemson and Miami remain the biggest obstacles on the Hokies' schedule, although as each week passes preseason projections play less of a role and a more accurate picture gets painted. Virginia is a surprisingly uncertain game after their offensive explosion this weekend, and North Carolina is a surprisingly close matchup as well.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

Not surprisingly the Hokies are ranked well above the Monarchs, and all computers expect them to win comfortably. The odds of a 28-point favorite winning are 96.7%. However, as can be seen above S&P+ only projects an 86.6% chance of winning.

Side note: Old Dominion is currently rated just one spot behind Virginia.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Even considering that preseason projections are still a significant portion of ratings, it is still a little bit surprising that the Tech offense is still towards the middle-of-the-pack. While that still gives a slight advantage over ODU, it is the defensive side that enjoys a very large advantage. The Monarchs have a solid defensive line but the offense should struggle to score many points.

Who To Watch Out For

Despite being a smaller school that isn't likely to land top talent, Old Dominion is not without playmakers:

1. DL Miles Fox and DL Bunmi Rotimi are tied for 7th in the nation with 3.5 sacks each through 3 games. They have led a defense that is tied for 1st in the country in sacks with 16.0 — notably sharing the top spot with Clemson. Look for Brad Cornelsen to form a game plan to limit the DL from getting to Josh Jackson, who has only been sacked three times all season.
2. WR Isaiah Harper is 10th in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 32.33 yards with a touchdown. However, he will face leg cannon Joey Slye who is second in the country in touchback% at 95.65%, with the lone return coming on an intentional low kick last weekend.

Statistical Key to the Game

I trust Tech's defense to severely limit the Monarch offense. But given the surprisingly stout defensive line of ODU and the lack of a Hokies ground game against even mediocre competition, I'm really interested in whether the Hokies establish a run game. I'm looking at yards per carry to set the tone for whether Tech simply outclasses Old Dominion, or whether the offense has to show more of its playbook to seal the win.

Statistical Prediction

After regular improvement across their first three seasons, I believe the Monarchs have taken a step back this season and will really struggle on offense. On the other hand, I still have some trust issues with the Hokies' offense despite the explosion of points against that poor and porous East Carolina defense. If I were a betting man, and I am, I'd be taking the under on this game despite a clear Virginia Tech victory.

Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 13

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.