By the (Advanced) Numbers: 'Canes Are Able

Entering the 2018 season, many predicted Miami and Virginia Tech would finish No. 1-2 in the ACC Coastal. If anything gave pause to that prognostication, it was either a suspect Miami offense or dubious Virginia Tech defense.

Those doubts were not only justified, but in both cases were not sufficient enough. Units that were thought to likely take a step back, instead tumbled over a cliff. They are not only unimpressive, but often downright embarrassing. Neither fan base has any trust at this point. Now the Hurricanes' offense must face the Hokies' defense. It is difficult — although not impossible — for both to look bad at the same time. One will almost certainly make the other look good.

I know which one I fear will do just that.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 4-5. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Ponder for a moment that Virginia Tech needs to win out to ensure a bowl game, and is not favored in either game. As a result, the team has a 38% chance of not winning another scheduled game and only a 15% chance of clinching that bowl bid. Given the depleted defense, it's simply hard to imagine the team playing after November.

Virginia Tech Leads the Nation In...

Giving up 70+ yard plays (7). Also in giving up 80+ yards plays (3). Oh and giving up 90+ yard plays (2).

I'm miserable.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

The spread opened at Miami -3.5 and quickly moved to -5.5. While computers generally think the opening is more accurate, bettors are probably weighing the Hokies' most recent performances more heavily and don't see them keeping up with anyone. The odds of a 5.5-point underdog winning is 34.0%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Both offense are average; it's Miami's substantial defensive advantage that gives them the better chances in this game. That unit remains one of the best in the nation and won't make things easy.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. Most statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

The Virginia Tech passing game may be better rated than the running game, but Miami's pass defense will be a major challenge. Ryan Willis will have to re-enact his Duke performance all over again to pull this win off.

What style offense do the Hokies use and what style will they face?

There's no mistake about it, the Hurricanes' defensive ability starts with an aggressive front line that creates sacks and TFL's as well as anyone. The Tech offensive line will have their hands full and Willis will need to make smart decisions about throwing the ball away or taking the sack.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Temple
2. Utah
3. South Carolina

The Miami defense is closest in personality to:

1. Cincinnati
2. Michigan State
3. Utah

When Miami Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Perhaps the most frustrating thing about the Tech defense is performance on passing downs. It's among the worst nationally. Even when the Hokies are able to get initial stops and force the opponent into high yardage to go, they seem to always give up the first down. Or, far too often, a touchdown.

What style offense do the Hurricanes use and what style will they face in the Hokies defense?

It goes without saying the Tech defense did nothing last weekend to improve its poor rating in preventing explosiveness. Five rushes of over 90 yards have happened in FBS football this season, and the unit has given up two of them.

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. UTSA
2. Wake Forest
3. Texas Tech

The Miami offense is closest in personality to:

1. Arkansas
2. Eastern Michigan
3. Georgia State

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:

Virginia Tech remains stout at kicking off and yet below average at returning kickoffs.

When the Hurricanes kick:

College kickers man. The amazingly named Bubba Baxa is 6/9 on the season kicking field goals, going 1/3 from 40+ yards and with a miss from 28 yards.

Who To Watch Out For

Remember Miami's Front Line Havoc rating?:

1. SR DL Gerald Willis III is 8th nationally with 17 TFL on the season.
2. SO DL Jonathan Garvin is 18th nationally with 14.5 TFL on the season.
3. JR LB Shaquille Quarterman is 61st nationally with 11 TFL on the season.

If you are keeping score, that is three players combining for 42.5 TFL in 10 games.

Statistical Key to the Game

Well, its defense is going to make Miami's offense look like it's coached by Mike Leach, so the Virginia Tech offense is going to have to keep up and get some lucky breaks. The aggressive Miami defensive line is frightening, and putting in Quincy Patterson to run up the middle from the shotgun for a few downs isn't going to solve anything.

Take 4 or less TFL in this game and the offense is probably able to move the ball enough to have a chance.

Statistical Prediction

A subtle feature of BTAN has long been the "statistical" prediction of a Virginia Tech victory. When the team was putting up 10-win seasons, this feature was fairly subtle. This season I am (correctly) getting called BS on more often.

Let me have it again this week:

Virginia Tech 28, Miami 27

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.