We're really not as bad as we think is the answer, and that Miami has yet to beat anyone of note. That being said, I do have nightmares of D'Eriq King going for 500 yards on his own so there's that.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
"Statistically speaking" reminds me that (1) I am married to someone in stats and (2) the old joke (first heard at Virginia Tech from Dr. Gregory in Biochemistry) about statisticians that go hunting.
Two statisticians go deer hunting. One shoots his arrow 10 feet in front of the deer and the others shoots his 10 feet behind the deer. One looks at the other and says, 'great job, we got em!"
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Can't speak to what oddsmakers see, but SP+ saw both the Wake and Liberty games as games VT should have won -- 77% and 68% postgame win expectancies -- and didn't dock the Hokies much for that.https://t.co/PCCyBOa390— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 11, 2020
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm going to post 3 heat maps, covering the last 3 seasons of Virginia Tech football.
Not trying to give anybody PTSD or anything, but briefly walk through the last 3 seasons from an emotional standpoint and see how each one sizes up for you:
(RED - BAD; GREEN - GOOD).
HEAT MAP #1
. 2018 started off great. Got ugly quick and stayed mostly ugly. A few bright spots towards the end of the year:
2018 was BELOW AVERAGE 2019 every time we looked like we had our shit together, we'd have another disappointment.
2019 was INCONSISTENT, but better than 2018 2020 started off great. Up and down roller coaster ever since
2020 is beginning to look like a REGRESSION FROM 2019
HEAT MAP #2
. 2018 started and ended well. In between; a forgettable nightmare.
2018 was AWFUL, with hints of optimism at the beginning and the end of the season. 2019 started poorly, flipped to good halfway, and ended on a few disappointing notes.
2019 was a GOOD SEASON accentuateded by a slow start and a fizzled out finish 2020 started off great, but is giving me whiplash going between good and bad weeks
2020 is looking like a REGRESSION FROM 2019
HEAT MAP #3
. 2018 started off mediocre, got really bad, and ended on a note of consistent mediocrity
2018 was ANYTHING & EVERYTHING BUT GOOD 2019 started off like shit; ended up pretty good
2019 was NOT GREAT, BUT SHOWED IMPROVEMENT 2020 so far has been pretty good, accentuated by occasional bouts of mediocrity
2020 is LOOKING GOOD, still a little inconsistent
Full disclosure, I'm not sure that I was trying to be reassuring. The post asks an interesting question (-2.5?!) and I'm trying to figure it out myself.
But you bring up an interesting question. If I was trying to be reassuring, then who would I be trying to reassure?
............... HEAT MAP #1 is simply our wins and losses; regardless of opponent.
Do wins and losses (regardless of opponent) affect you the most?
The game grades might seem anecdotal on their face; after all it's just one statistician's way of coming up with a power ranking.
It's worth it to note the thread it's posted in- "How are the Hokies -2.5 favorites against Miami?"
... Against a Top 10 Miami.
- In which a consensus of statisticians have us as 2 point favorites.
- In which a consensus of people throwing money on this game haven't even really moved this line.
- While a consensus of our fanbase seems to think the only real answer is to just burn the whole program down and start over.
...............
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we just got beat by another little-brother, in-state G5 team. I mean "at least" we didn't get torched this time, but that's sure as fuck a letdown any way you slice it.
Which on it's face really sucks and I'm not going to say I feel good about that at all, either.
It seems like there's very little optimism amongst our fanbase at the moment. Which is strange because if the Sheldons in Vegas had to pick a program on the upswing to root for, we might be on top of a lot of those lists (outside the G5; holy hell there's a lot of those programs having the season of their lives this year).
Turns out the little diploma mill is probably pretty well coached and punching above their weight this season.
And that might actually have been our first actual letdown game in a full year of football games.
It's also quite possible this team is playing as good of football as we've seen since 2010. Because that's pretty much what the cackle of nerds would seem to indicate.
Do you trust the emotional tone of this fanbase? How about the opinions of sports-writers?
If so, this team is hot fucking garbage right now.
Do you trust people who crunch numbers for a living? How about people who bet for a living?
The "Sheldon" crowd, who isn't emotionally invested in the Hokies, would likely be a full 180 degrees out of phase with the former group.
......................
Our fanbase is engulfed in a caucophany of emotion right now after a deflating loss to an in-state diploma mill; in the year of a pandemic on the upswing; just following/in the middle of the most exhausting and highly contested election most of us will likely see in our lifetimes.
Shit's not real fun, and there really isn't much escaping any of it at the moment, either.
As a fan, try not to focus on how you feel for just a minute.
How good do you think we actually are right now?
Do you want to phone a friend on that?
Think you might call a statistician?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I THINK the Hokies have an offense that is inconsistent but can be very potent at times. I THINK the Hokies have a defense that is vulnerable and can be abused by astute coaches and talented players.
I THINK Miami has the type of offense that could be an absolute matchup nightmare for the Hokies defense. I THINK without Herbert the Hokies offense is likely to fall 1 or 2 drives short of scoring enough to keep up with Miami.
I FEEL like Miami is going to blast us something like 56-35
I had a statistics teacher in college who was a real dickhead. I don't know if I would trust him.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I had a statistics teacher in college who was a real dickhead.
LOL I'm married to one; I think I know exactly how you feel.
(I was only kidding if you find this, babe).
I don't feel really good about this game, either. I'm on night shifts, and was expecting the line to move to Miami by the time I woke up this afternoon. But every time I check it... There it is
It's really kind of fascinating. Aside from a run with the dog, I've spent most of the day off trying to figure out what the hell they're smoking
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia were 3 point favorites against a ranked K State team a few weeks ago and people were asking the same thing. WVU won something like 44-10. Not saying the same thing will happen, but Vegas knows what they're doing. Remember, they set the lines in such a way that they potentially make the most money.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Ugh. That means a classic Hokie choke job on the way. We haven't had a good prime time performance against a marquee opponent (at least perceived marquee) since @ tOSU. And even before that they were rare!
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Its not just Vegas--ESPN FPI has this game VT 62% to Miami 38%.
I just don't get it. I don't think Miami is a Powerhouse by any means, but the matchup just doesn't seem favorable. Our D who hasn't stopped the Run consistently all year and hasn't tackled really anybody vs. the most mobile QB we have seen all year?
Not tremendously impressed with what I've seen from Miami's running backs, but with the tempo that they run and the extreme lack of depth at every level of our D, I just can't see us consistently stopping them for 4 quarters. I see us getting gassed and then gashed.
I seriously wonder if someone has some Insider information going on.
Edit: plus Herbert has a bad Hammy. Hamstrings very rarely heal and are ready to go in a week..would be surprised if he plays much if at all.
It just doesn't add up.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think it is pretty simple. The numbers nerds are not letting upsets sway them much this year because there have been a lot of upsets. Also, ask yourself this simple question: Is Miami more likely to be due a game that drops them back to reality or are the Hokies more likely to continue to produce below their potential. The two teams are sort of in opposite places even though they are very close in power rating and if I was an unemotional gambler, I would probably place my bet on the hokies as well.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I didn't put a large amount but I put $10 on Miami. I hope we win, but I don't think we will. If we do win, I am happy about beating a top 10 team and would pay more than $10 for us to win that game. If we lose as I am expecting, I am up $10 and my Saturday goes as planned.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
to beat the UUUU, I think we need to stick Conner up close to stop the run, spy on King, and make the U beat us in the passing game. Play straight man, and stick someone back in deep safety that can tackle in space. Not Taylor, please....
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Comments
Sucker bet. People will jump on the money line and it will shift.
question for the degenerates out there, is home field advantage still getting 3 pts?
Jeff Sagarin calculates home field advantage and updates it in his team chart every week.
Right now he has it at 1.81 points.
We're really not as bad as we think is the answer, and that Miami has yet to beat anyone of note. That being said, I do have nightmares of D'Eriq King going for 500 yards on his own so there's that.
According to Bill C, statistically speaking were one win better than our record and Miami is one loss worse than their actual record.
so I guess everything will even out this weekend?
"Statistically speaking" reminds me that (1) I am married to someone in stats and (2) the old joke (first heard at Virginia Tech from Dr. Gregory in Biochemistry) about statisticians that go hunting.
Two statisticians go deer hunting. One shoots his arrow 10 feet in front of the deer and the others shoots his 10 feet behind the deer. One looks at the other and says, 'great job, we got em!"
Mick Gregory is a VT treasure.
I read that as we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Somehow not terribly reassuring.
Somehow not terribly reassuring.
That's interesting.
Humor me for just a minute here.
I'm going to post 3 heat maps, covering the last 3 seasons of Virginia Tech football.
Not trying to give anybody PTSD or anything, but briefly walk through the last 3 seasons from an emotional standpoint and see how each one sizes up for you:
(RED - BAD; GREEN - GOOD).
HEAT MAP #1
.
2018 started off great. Got ugly quick and stayed mostly ugly. A few bright spots towards the end of the year:
2018 was BELOW AVERAGE
2019 every time we looked like we had our shit together, we'd have another disappointment.
2019 was INCONSISTENT, but better than 2018
2020 started off great. Up and down roller coaster ever since
2020 is beginning to look like a REGRESSION FROM 2019
HEAT MAP #2
.
2018 started and ended well. In between; a forgettable nightmare.
2018 was AWFUL, with hints of optimism at the beginning and the end of the season.
2019 started poorly, flipped to good halfway, and ended on a few disappointing notes.
2019 was a GOOD SEASON accentuateded by a slow start and a fizzled out finish
2020 started off great, but is giving me whiplash going between good and bad weeks
2020 is looking like a REGRESSION FROM 2019
HEAT MAP #3
.
2018 started off mediocre, got really bad, and ended on a note of consistent mediocrity
2018 was ANYTHING & EVERYTHING BUT GOOD
2019 started off like shit; ended up pretty good
2019 was NOT GREAT, BUT SHOWED IMPROVEMENT
2020 so far has been pretty good, accentuated by occasional bouts of mediocrity
2020 is LOOKING GOOD, still a little inconsistent
Full disclosure, I'm not sure that I was trying to be reassuring. The post asks an interesting question (-2.5?!) and I'm trying to figure it out myself.
But you bring up an interesting question. If I was trying to be reassuring, then who would I be trying to reassure?
...............
HEAT MAP #1 is simply our wins and losses; regardless of opponent.
Do wins and losses (regardless of opponent) affect you the most?
HEAT MAP #2 is simply our performance verses expected outcome/Vegas line.
Does how we SHOULD play (vs expectations) affect you the most?
HEAT MAP #3 is the calculated game grades from a prominent statistician (weighted by opponent.)
Or does how good our football team actually IS affect you the most?
this is pretty cool. Thank you for putting it together!
I don't know if it reassures me of anything though, haha
The game grades might seem anecdotal on their face; after all it's just one statistician's way of coming up with a power ranking.
It's worth it to note the thread it's posted in- "How are the Hokies -2.5 favorites against Miami?"
... Against a Top 10 Miami.
- In which a consensus of statisticians have us as 2 point favorites.
- In which a consensus of people throwing money on this game haven't even really moved this line.
- While a consensus of our fanbase seems to think the only real answer is to just burn the whole program down and start over.
...............
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we just got beat by another little-brother, in-state G5 team. I mean "at least" we didn't get torched this time, but that's sure as fuck a letdown any way you slice it.
Which on it's face really sucks and I'm not going to say I feel good about that at all, either.
It seems like there's very little optimism amongst our fanbase at the moment. Which is strange because if the Sheldons in Vegas had to pick a program on the upswing to root for, we might be on top of a lot of those lists (outside the G5; holy hell there's a lot of those programs having the season of their lives this year).
Turns out the little diploma mill is probably pretty well coached and punching above their weight this season.
And that might actually have been our first actual letdown game in a full year of football games.
It's also quite possible this team is playing as good of football as we've seen since 2010. Because that's pretty much what the cackle of nerds would seem to indicate.
Do you trust the emotional tone of this fanbase? How about the opinions of sports-writers?
If so, this team is hot fucking garbage right now.
Do you trust people who crunch numbers for a living? How about people who bet for a living?
The "Sheldon" crowd, who isn't emotionally invested in the Hokies, would likely be a full 180 degrees out of phase with the former group.
......................
Our fanbase is engulfed in a caucophany of emotion right now after a deflating loss to an in-state diploma mill; in the year of a pandemic on the upswing; just following/in the middle of the most exhausting and highly contested election most of us will likely see in our lifetimes.
Shit's not real fun, and there really isn't much escaping any of it at the moment, either.
As a fan, try not to focus on how you feel for just a minute.
How good do you think we actually are right now?
Do you want to phone a friend on that?
Think you might call a statistician?
this is an intriguing and persuasive post.
I THINK the Hokies have an offense that is inconsistent but can be very potent at times. I THINK the Hokies have a defense that is vulnerable and can be abused by astute coaches and talented players.
I THINK Miami has the type of offense that could be an absolute matchup nightmare for the Hokies defense. I THINK without Herbert the Hokies offense is likely to fall 1 or 2 drives short of scoring enough to keep up with Miami.
I FEEL like Miami is going to blast us something like 56-35
I had a statistics teacher in college who was a real dickhead. I don't know if I would trust him.
LOL I'm married to one; I think I know exactly how you feel.
(I was only kidding if you find this, babe).
I don't feel really good about this game, either. I'm on night shifts, and was expecting the line to move to Miami by the time I woke up this afternoon. But every time I check it... There it is
It's really kind of fascinating. Aside from a run with the dog, I've spent most of the day off trying to figure out what the hell they're smoking
When you figure it out let me know...I could use some..
have we, tho?
we've beaten VT about 3 times...
Mitch Moreland hit a 3r Hr the next inning that Puig didn't even flinch for and the Sox won the series.
So fuck Puig.
West Virginia were 3 point favorites against a ranked K State team a few weeks ago and people were asking the same thing. WVU won something like 44-10. Not saying the same thing will happen, but Vegas knows what they're doing. Remember, they set the lines in such a way that they potentially make the most money.
Game moved from ESPN2 to mothership due to high number of other games cancelled or postponed.
Ugh. That means a classic Hokie choke job on the way. We haven't had a good prime time performance against a marquee opponent (at least perceived marquee) since @ tOSU. And even before that they were rare!
Did the game time move or is it still a nooner?
FBschedules still says noon.
ESPN.com still says ESPN2...
Sounds on brand for ESPN/goACC.
ESPN.com has updated the game schedule to noon on ESPN.
Its not just Vegas--ESPN FPI has this game VT 62% to Miami 38%.
I just don't get it. I don't think Miami is a Powerhouse by any means, but the matchup just doesn't seem favorable. Our D who hasn't stopped the Run consistently all year and hasn't tackled really anybody vs. the most mobile QB we have seen all year?
Not tremendously impressed with what I've seen from Miami's running backs, but with the tempo that they run and the extreme lack of depth at every level of our D, I just can't see us consistently stopping them for 4 quarters. I see us getting gassed and then gashed.
I seriously wonder if someone has some Insider information going on.
Edit: plus Herbert has a bad Hammy. Hamstrings very rarely heal and are ready to go in a week..would be surprised if he plays much if at all.
It just doesn't add up.
Drugs are bad m'kay?
I think it is pretty simple. The numbers nerds are not letting upsets sway them much this year because there have been a lot of upsets. Also, ask yourself this simple question: Is Miami more likely to be due a game that drops them back to reality or are the Hokies more likely to continue to produce below their potential. The two teams are sort of in opposite places even though they are very close in power rating and if I was an unemotional gambler, I would probably place my bet on the hokies as well.
I nearly put a large amount on Miami. I couldn't do it because I can't bet against my university.
I didn't put a large amount but I put $10 on Miami. I hope we win, but I don't think we will. If we do win, I am happy about beating a top 10 team and would pay more than $10 for us to win that game. If we lose as I am expecting, I am up $10 and my Saturday goes as planned.
to beat the UUUU, I think we need to stick Conner up close to stop the run, spy on King, and make the U beat us in the passing game. Play straight man, and stick someone back in deep safety that can tackle in space. Not Taylor, please....