HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: #3 VILLANOVA (2-0) VS VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (1-0) 8PM ESPNU

HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: #3 VILLANOVA (2-0) VS VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (1-0) 8PM ESPNU

Bump https://t.co/FxoYLxG8Ch— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) November 27, 2020

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: Nov 28 2020 8 PM
Opponent: Villanova
Site: Mohegan Sun Casino, Connecticut
ESPNU - Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Jon Crispin (analyst) on the call
Virginia Tech Sports Network - Jon Laaser (play-by-play) and Mike Burnop (analyst)

It's gameday!Third-ranked Villanova awaits— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) November 28, 2020

Flexibility

Couch Mike Young and staff jumped through hoops to make things happen after their game against Temple as part of the Air Force Reserve Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off Tournament was cancelled. Virginia Tech has a 1-9 record against Villanova. This is the third game of the season for the Wildcats. They took down #18 Arizona State and Boston College so far. The Hokies took down Radford 77-62 in their opening contest.

The Wildcats are coached by Jay Wright, who is in his twentieth season as head coach. The Wildcats were 24-7 last year before the season was shut down. Wright is 473-182 (.721 W%) as the Villanova head coach, and is 595-267 overall with seven seasons at Hofstra. He has led the Wildcats to 3 NITs and 14 NCAA Tournaments, including National Championships in 2015 and 2017.

Coach Wright has very little roster turnover, bringing in no new scholarship freshman but with the big loss of Julius Erving Award winning forward, Saddiq Bey. Two players do enter the mix in redshirt Freshman Eric Dixon and Caleb Daniels a transfer from Tulane who sat out last season. Wright was counting on Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree and Bryan Antoine but they are both out with injuries.

Defensively, Wright loves to have his team operate a significant portion on the game in a three quarter court press, employing 1-2-2 stagger as well as 1-1-2-1, The 1-2-2 zone has the advantages of being able to pressure the ball on the outside arc, allow for some trapping, and can be effective against a good outside shooting team (whereas the 2-3 zone is more effective against inside scoring and dribble penetration). The weaknesses are the high post area, and this defense can be attacked from the corners. Expect Wright to employ this against the Hokies to force them inside.

The Wildcats play mostly using the ICE defensive strategy in the half court, where the on-ball defender will switch his body positioning so that he is facing the middle of the court, forcing the ball handler towards the baseline. The big then drops to contain and delay the ball handler until either the on-ball defender catches up and they switch back, or the ball handler tries to pass the ball, in which case the two defenders switch. The only weakness to ICEing on these pick and rolls is that it is vulnerable to a pick and pop scenario. The other strategy typical of Wright's defenses is on ball defenders forcing ball handlers to their off hand. It creates the most opportunities for turnovers as ball handlers struggle with ball control in their off hand.

Offensively, Coach Wright runs one of the most analytically efficient offenses in college basketball. His offense is very simple with apparently few sets in his arsenal. The sets he chooses to run are unpredictable and flexible. He mostly uses the 4-out-1-in motion offense, where you'll see two players tucked into the corners and two players on opposing wings, with a big man down low initiating a lot of the action. He also mixes in some 50 series (5 players on the perimeter) and the occasional horns set (2 screeners on either side of the primary ball handler at the top of the key). What these sets mainly do is create a lot of shots at the rim and from 3-point-land. You will rarely see Villanova taking mid-range shots of any kind.

Coach Mike Young's walk from the tunnel to get the pregame popcorn. Coaches across the ACC are spending the offseason studying this move. pic.twitter.com/5jPGdajBYZ— Cassell Guard (@CassellGuardVT) June 24, 2020

Wildcats Backcourt

Collin Gillespie (#2, 6-3, 190 lbs, Senior) Wildcat court leader averaging 13 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.5 rpg, and 1 spg so far. He is struggling from outside, shooting 2-10 so far. He averaged 15.1 points and 4.5 assist per game. Gillespie is a career 37.2% three-point field goal shooter. He was named Preseason All-Big East First Team, Naismith Trophy Watch List, NABC POY Watch List, and Bob Cousy Award Watch List and become the 68th 1,000-point scorer in Villanova Men's basketball history.

Justin Moore (#5, 6-4, 210 lbs, Soph) He has averaged 14.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg, and 1 spg in their first two contests. Moore averaged 11.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds and shot the three-ball at a 39.6% clip. Moore rarely hesitates to take his man into the lane and score over or around him. He was named Preseason All-Big East Second Team and Jerry West Award Watch List entering the season.

Jermaine Samuels (#23, 6-7, 230 lbs, Senior) In their first two games he has racked up 7 ppg, 1 apg, 7 rpg per game but struggled with fouls, assessed 9 fouls over two contests. Getting Samuels off the floor would benefit the Hokies greatly. He averaged 10.7 points, 2 assists, 1 steal and 5.5 rebounds per game last season but only shot 27.6% from beyond the arc. He was named to the pre-season, Julius Erving Award Watch List.

Caleb Daniels (#14, 6-4, 210 lbs, Junior) Daniels has earned a starting spot and picked up right where he left off, averaging 14 ppg, 2.5 apg, 4 rpg and 1 steal per contest. He averaged 16.9 ppg as a Sophomore prior to deciding to transfer to Villanova from Tulane.

Brandon Slater (#3, 6'6, 211 lbs, Junior) Virginia kid being used sparingly so far, getting 12 mpg with 1 ppg and 2 rpg. If he plays major minutes, its either the Hokies are getting blown out or the Wildcats are in significant foul trouble.

Wildcats Frontcourt

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (#24, 6-9, 230 lbs, Soph) He is averaging 23 ppg, 9 rpg, and 1 spg so far in two games. He torched Arizona State for 28 points. Has a nice blend of inside/outside offensive skills and is a very good rebounder at both ends of the court. Last season, 81.4% at the free-throw line but only 32.8% from three. He was named Preseason All-Big East First Team, Naismith Trophy Watch List, NABC POY Watch List, and Karl Malone Award Watch List and is projected by most prognosticators as a 2021 NBA Draft pick.

Cole Swider (#10, 6-8, 225 lbs, Junior) Forward averaging 5 ppg and 4 rpg. He is coming off the bench this season but still playing 20 mpg.

What to expect from Villanova?

As a team the Wildcats are averaging 79.5 ppg and had little difficulty taking down #18 Arizona State, they did however struggle against the guards of Boston College. The Eagles only trailed by 1 with 3 minutes remaining but Villanova finished strong.

Villanova is shooting only 34% from outside on 8 made baskets per game so far. Gillespie's 20% from outside has been a major factor there. This is particularly important, as Wright's team usually are one of the best in the Nation in this category but struggled most of last season and seem to be continuing that way this season.

The Wildcats are shooting 49% from the floor so far and also outrebounding opponents 38.5 to 29. This will be a major concern for a Hokie team recently outrebounded by Radford.

The Wildcats will rely heavily on Robinson-Earl inside to score and facilitate. Surprisingly he has only gone to the free throw line six times in two games. Keeping his paint touches down will be a critical component of this game. Expect to see Mutts and Aluma rotating defensively on him.

The Hokies

The Hokies should focus on guards driving to the basket in this game as that seems to be Villanova's double weakness in points given up as well as forwards drawing fouls. Expect Mike Young to utilize Diarra and Alleyne heavily in this role. Add in Aluma down low to keep Robinson-Earl busy.

The Hokies, even with the ability to match Villanova in height, likely opt for speed and ball control, with Wright playing three or four guards at all times. The question is, do they have ball control. The Radford game was pretty ugly in terms of turnovers, with 10 outright and four additional offensive fouls. That's a turnover on almost a quarter of their possessions. The good news is they forced 15 turnovers and had three offensive fouls drawn. Villanova is forcing 9.5 turnovers but also turning it over 10 times per game.

N'Guessan and Pemsl likely see less playing time then they did against Radford unless the Hokies get in foul trouble.

Rebounding is another area they struggled in against a fairly small Radford team and Villanova is much more productive than the Highlanders. The Hokies can ill afford to be outrebounded by double digits. This is going to be the major turning point in this contest unfortunately.

The Hokies defensively need to prevent interior passing and also disrupt dribble penetration from the Villanova guards. This was true against Radford but more so in this contest. If the Hokies force the Wildcats away from the basket it heightens their chance of pulling the upset.

The Hokies once again appear dependent on perimeter shooting even with the sizeable change in height on the roster, shooting 26 attempts on 60 total shots. Fortunately against Radford they were able to make 11 of those attempts for 33 of their 77 points (42% shooting for 42% of their points). This is going to be much more difficult with Villanova's defensive strategy as well as the talent on the floor.

Highlight of the Radford Game

Not a bad debut for Keve 👌#StoneByStone | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/Oh78u8TuqP— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) November 25, 2020

Keve Aluma going off for 19 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists in his Hokies debut

In Closing
The Hokies must be extremely efficient early in this contest. They can ill afford to start this game the way the Radford game started, although finished shooting 57.4% from the field against Radford.

Alleyne and Diarra lead the team by getting to the rim for double digits. Aluma comes back down to earth a bit but still should be in double digits. Radford continues to contribute 8-10 points a contest. Bede and Cattoor will likely be the turning points in this game based on what they provide which may be a struggle for Cattoor getting open looks.

Hokies still struggle early which allows Villanova to build a lead but may tire significantly as this is their third game in four days. Hokies unfortunately don't make up for their slow start and lose 73-69. Hope I am wrong and they come out on fire and can show more resolve then Boston College in the waning moments.