Hi there.
The season is now over, and although I have chosen to stop participating in the community for personal reasons I would be remiss not to share all the jet sweep data I so painstakingly collected over the course of this season. This is so that you, the public, can make an informed decision about whether or not jet sweeps are Good Actually™, which we all know is the single best indicator of offensive efficiency and effectiveness.
Statistical notes:
- We attempted a scant 18 jet sweeps in 2020, or only 1.6 per game.
- We averaged 7.4 yards on jet sweep attempts.
- The middle 90% of attempts averaged 5.6 yards.
- The middle 75% of attempts averaged 4.6 yards.
- The middle 50% of attempts averaged 4.7 yards.
- The median attempt went for 4.5 yards.
- 28% of attempts went for 0 or negative yardage.
- 22% of attempts went for 10 yards or more.
- Both 3rd down attempts made the line to gain.
- 50% of all attempts made the line to gain.
- Every goal to go attempt scored a touchdown
- Turner averaged 9.6 yards on 7 attempts
- Blackshear averaged 4.2 yards on 6 attempts
- Robinson averaged 14.3 yards on 3 attempts
- Hodge and Michell combined to average -1 yard (and one touchdown) on one attempt each.
Changes since last year:
- Attempts were down from 40 to 18.
- Yards per attempt were up by 0.3.
- 1st down conversions were up from 45% to 50%.
- 0 or negative yardage plays were up from 13% to 22%
- 60% of attempts were on 2nd down. Last season we attempted the majority of our jet sweeps on 1st down.
| Game | Player | Down | Distance | Yards | TD? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | Turner | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| NC State | Turner | 1 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Duke | Robinson | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| UNC | Mitchell | 3 | 1(Goal) | 1 | 1 |
| UNC | Blackshear | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| BC | Turner | 1 | 10 | -2 | 0 |
| Wake | Blackshear | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| Wake | Blackshear | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Wake | Blackshear | 1 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Wake | Blackshear | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| Louisville | Turner | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Louisville | Robinson | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Louisville | Turner | 1 | 1(Goal) | 1 | 1 |
| Liberty | Turner | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami | Robinson | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| Clemson | Blackshear | 2 | 12 | -1 | 0 |
| UVA | Turner | 2 | 6(Goal) | 6 | 1 |
| UVA | Hodge | 2 | 8 | -2 | 0 |
Omitted plays and other notes:
- A rushing attempt by Turner against Duke in the 2nd quarter was a reverse and as such was not counted.
- A rushing attempt by Robinson against BC in the 2nd quarter was a reverse and as such was not counted.
- The -12 yard rush attributed to Turner in the Pitt game was a failed reverse attempt and was not counted.
- A rushing attempt by Robinson against UVA in the 3rd quarter was a reverse and as such was not counted.
- I forgot to record the quarter and time remaining this time, but since there were so few attempts this season they're pretty easy to go back and find in the ESPN play-by-play.
- We lost every game (1) in which we did not attempt a jet sweep.
Forums:
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Comments
Dammit the hokies lose another key player to the portal.
In all seriousness, I'm sorry to see you go and I hope to see you back some day. Do what you got to do.
Respect my decision 😉
To be honest I'm nearly at that point too. Too many trolls and haters that want to circle jerk and cry "woe is me" because Whit didn't go with what their arm-chair/bar-stool coaching wants them to do - Fire everyone and just "pay" someone to take us to glory. It shows that many of the fans on TKP (and other sites too) have never been in a position of leadership.
And to the TKP staff - as much as I like your content, your articles on this topic haven't been fair or measured - it's only been stoking the fire. Maybe it's just me, but I expect more from you guys.
I understand your point regarding being in a leadership position and hiring a guy to "take us to glory." But we're paying someone $4.25M per year to coach our football team. When you pay someone that much money, you expect a certain amount of results. You're paying for a certain amount of skills and abilities that are beyond their peers (otherwise, let's pay closer to the mean salary). Being in a position of leadership, in this case Whit, that you find a candidate you think can and will be successful. You then set the expectations for what that candidate should accomplish. Then you HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE for meeting those expectations. We've talked a lot about what the expectations should be on here. And obviously you have to let a coach rebuild a program and give him time to do so. This is year 5. Yes, COVID. But we shouldn't EVER lose to Liberty (well, there may be something like 50 of our team get food poisoning the day before a game, but shy of something like that, we should have such a wide talent gap that should allow us to beat even a VERY well coached Liberty team). And yes, COVID, but all the other coaches were in the same boat for recruiting, and look at our class. Yes, some have said they think there are probably inefficiencies this year, but not a single 4 star? Fuente has said he expected certain things with this recruiting class. How many 4 stars that showed a lot of interest in us early went somewhere else? This wasn't a failure to scout, this was a failure to close on those guys. There's also play calling. I don't know how you deny that running the ball on 3rd and long is going to work? I guess the strategy is not turning the ball over on a pass play, but if you're not scoring and the other team is, maybe go for it, at least every once in awhile to keep their defense honest? There's not scoring in the second half, which shows an inability to adapt to things defenses change up on us.
Fuente seems like a nice guy, and a good guy, but is he meeting the expectations that we should have for him? How long should a leader give a coach? What should a leader do when a coach isn't meeting expectations (especially one that is paid that highly)?
Fuente getting paid $4.25m is below average for a Power 5 coach ($4.4m is the average per an October 2020 story analyzing coaching salaries in the pandemic by USA Today). Not only that but over half of all Power 5 coaches have a buyout over $10m.
Fuente is basically an average P5 coach with an average P5 salary. Sure we don't want to be average, but thems the facts on salaries.
The average doesn't tell you anything about ranking within the range. Large or small numbers on either end will influence the average. The SEC paying 6 of their coaches enough to be in the top 10 of coaches salaries throws things off. Fuente is the second highest paid coach in the ACC (articles show Manny Diaz falls at $3.1M). Are we getting second highest recruiting and win percentages? Link
Mack Brown's base salary is $750k, but he makes much more than that through supplemental compensation and the like. Fuente is in a range around Gundy and Chryst, but below the likes of Chip Kelly, Will Muschamp, Scott Frost and Mark Stoops. If you factor in bonuses that other coaches have, (according to that link, Fuente doesn't have any bonuses this year, he did last year, but his salary was also lower) he's in line with most of the other ACC coaches.
I included a link with the numbers I'm using that says it includes base pay, bonuses, and other compensation. It shows Fuente as #2 in the ACC. Where are you getting your numbers from?
I literally said I was using the same document as you though. The only thing I didn't get from that was Mack Brown's contract which I googled. Yes, Fuente is second in the ACC, but he's not far ahead of other coaches in the ACC and a lot of them have (or before the pandemic, had) bonuses.
Narduzzi's contract is undisclosed cause Pitt is a private/public school, Brian Kelly (semi-ACC coach) is paid an undisclosed amount for a private school. Manny Diaz makes $3.1m a year but it has come out that it was less than it was negotiated because they had to pay the immediate Temple buyout. The details are not fully known because Miami is a private school, so it could be higher w/ bonuses. Mike Norvell makes less than Fuente, but that's probably because they have to pay the buyout for Taggart who made more than Fuente before factoring bonuses. Bronco Mendenhall makes $3.7m a year but also has up to $2.165m in bonus money. Syracuse: another private school where we don't fully know how Baber's contract is structured. Its less, but by how much, and what supplemental sources, who knows?
Point being: last year Fuente was certainly not the second highest paid coach in the ACC, he probably still isn't in reality this year. It seems like he has more guaranteed money than other coaches in the ACC, but they also have much more bonus money comparatively.
Fuente isn't being held accountable for shit, pardon the expression. Whit's press conference was not clear in many instances, but did remove any specific expectations or stated goals for 2021 aside from "getting better". Laughably, he mentioned inroads to recruiting in this very state, and when Fuente was asked about his own expectations for 2021 yesterday he jokingly deflected and said "this year has just ended."
It's very difficult for me as a fan not to feel hopeless about the current state of Virginia Tech football. No staffing changes are made after the first losing season in 28 years. No specific expectations are set upon Fuente for improving in year six. No clear vision for said improvement is communicated to the fans. Bargain basement recruiting levels. And top 200 talent is flooding for the exits as we speak.
But I guess I'm a drain.
Eh, I'm willing to accept the explanation that we just couldn't get someone that was worth the risk and money of making a move. I don't like it but I can accept the reality of it. That shitshow by Whit earlier this week was unacceptable though, and I think the community was right to react to it as negatively as it did.
Edit: what's funny about these downvotes is I can't tell if people are mad that I defended keeping Fuente, mad that I criticized Whit, or just mad that I defended the community's negativity.
I don't agree with WB's decision to keep Fuente. There are more than enough bad losses caused by structural issues prevalent in the program to fire him. The head coach is supposed to solve problems. What problem has Fuente solved?
I do think WB shows leadership by putting Fuente's lack of performance on himself. The easier path for WB would be to fire CJF, reset the program, and see where it is at 3-4 years from now. WB chose the more difficult path. I don't agree with his choice, but I do admire it.
I will be incredibly happy if it works out well and I'm proven wrong.
None of the writers on this site have any obligation to be positive for the sake of being positive. Instead, they are doing their job. If you want state media stick to Sons of Saturday. Additionally, you are not the arbiter of what is fair or measured.
You literally do not know that this is true and it is only condescending and insulting to fellow TKP'ers.
Lol ok. You do you man. This is my point. Being a fan is exhausting with all the haters. I don't have the time to explain to all the negative posters (who seem to be the majority of the voices on the blog) rationale explanations. Enjoy.
Your point is proving that you are being condescending?
edit: there is something particularly rich about you incorrectly using "rationale" instead of "rational" after proclaiming that you simply don't have the time to defeat all the wrongheaded negative users with your logic and reason.
So sue me for a typo on my phone.
My point is that yours and others lack of knowledge, childish tantrums, and overreactions are insufferable. You def are the vocal minority and you drive away others who want to have normal discourse.
edit: Your " If you want state media stick to Sons of Saturday." is hilarious. You think if posting sensible and balanced views is "state" media then I think that says more about you than me.
I see you've decided to triple down on being condescending and insulting.
edit: Sons of Saturday gives a very pro-Fuente and pro-VT view. BRM has a personal relationship with staff members. It's not in their best interest to do or say things that would hurt their access to the program. So, they are simply on a far spectrum that is going to extremely positive and pro-Fuente and pro-VT. That's fine. I enjoy their interviews. I am down to hear them out, but I think it's interesting you find their position to be in the middle.
Lol accusing me of being condescending while being condescending yourself? Kettle meet pot.
In any case, I'm done arguing with you. My own fault for getting dragged into the dirt with you. Feel free to thrive there.
You directly insulted me and my response was to point out that:
A) you insulted me and others, which everyone can see.
B) you are once again being condescending in each comment in this thread.
I really, really ought to keep my mouth shut here.
But I just can't help myself. Chris and I haven't always seen eye to eye over the years. But he and the rest of the masthead are treating you fairly in this thread, and you just can't handle it. Some things truly never change.
You used to *majorly* get under my skin. Like, for a very long time before I stopped being able to hide it, and even longer before my own infamous negative plaid moment. In fact, I know I said a lot of words on my way out the door, but the real reason I left is that I couldn't civilly coexist in a community with you, and I needed to stop trying to for a while. If you honestly believe concerns about Fuente are overblown by biased sports media, then we still categorically disagree on Hokie football. No news there.
My point is, if you need to step away for your own betterment, you should. It worked for me. Failing that, I hope you get whatever it is you need. If that is continuing to be the resident Karen of TKP, I am but a Beard, and powerless to stop you.
I won't miss your posts. You carry a very condescending tone illustrated by your above blanket assumption of an entire website.
I hope that you continue to support the Hokies, god knows we need it.
Feeling is quite mutual.
You won't miss your own posts? Ooooo got you good.
this is very insulting. I and many other people on TKP are in or have been in leadership roles. I have also worked for various different individuals who lead in very different ways. But I can guarantee that I would never, ever want to work for someone as arrogant and condescending as you. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemies. You can pound your chest all you want if you think that's what leadership really is but in my experience that type of leadership rarely finds success.
I have been painstakingly careful to be as fair as possible in my assessment of the team. I hope that, over the years, I have tried to acknowledge when I have missed an evaluation (Nijman), thought a player wasn't going to develop and did (Stroman), or overlooked some important aspect of on the field performance.
However, in any leadership position, you have goals and accountability. If the goal of this football program is to be the dominant program in the ACC Coastal (and that should be reasonable), the long-standing problems that reveal themselves over and over in the film tell me that the goal will not be achieved by this staff, in my opinion. The same core issues are there, and seemingly can't or won't be fixed.
If being the dominant program in the Coastal isn't the goal, then I don't know where we go from here.
I disagree.
I've been plenty critical of Fuente this year primary because the play on the field, and recruiting off it call for it (and that's not only 2020, it's a downward trend). I've backed up my positions with numbers and data. That is fair.
It really sucks Justin Fuente is failing at Virginia Tech. Moreover it sucks he has little to no interest to engage the fanbase outside of a few Friday night tweets and a single fan day. Mostly because that would go a long way to making these tough times easier on everyone.
I hope he turns it around, and should he I'll give him the credit for it, because that's fair.
Brian and French take an inordinate amount of time to present their position. And frankly, you don't know what you're talking about.
There is nobody who would have been happier if Fuente had succeeded/will succeed than me. I was high on the hire, and told all of our readers that his hire was an exciting day. I am a proud man, and proud of the work I do. I feel ill that I misjudged what this program would look like today, because I feel like I misdiagnosed the hire and offered you all false hope. I don't say that lightly.
I don't think that this coaching staff can build the foundation of a long term powerhouse at at least a division level. For me to say anything else at this point would be dishonest, and ground in a blind faith that I just don't have.
I should probably do the same. I don't do the social media thing that much, but TKP is definitely my guilty pleasure/addictive internet habit/productivity killer/VT football therapy group. Whatever.
I have chosen to stop participating in the community for personal reasons
Oh no - I hope you are doing okay...we need you buddy :)
Thanks for the data....as we have clearly seen, less Jet sweeps equals less wins
Love it. Its confirmed then.
They may not be Fan Endorsed Good Actually but they are in fact good, actually.
So, we should have run MORE jetsweeps? Data will get after ya!
This means next year we will run the jet sweep 60% of the time on Third Down. He has a rotation going.
When every 3rd down attempt this year converted the way forward is clear.
I want a fundraiser called "Fuente's Jet-Sweepstakes"
Rules TBD, but I bet it would make people more excited about seeing that play develop every week.
Replace 'cowbell' with 'Jet Sweep'. And Walken with Corny.
Funny, but nah...that's Mississippi State's thingEDIT: never mind, reading is fundamental
Only 4 10+ yard sweeps, and 4 negative yardage sweeps. To me, all this data signifies that a jet sweep is no more or less effective as any other play we've got.
That is the point of the jet sweep. You force the defense to cover the whole field while also getting positive yards. It is like taking a shot downfield to keep the secondary out of the box except you are nearly guaranteed positive yards on the play. I never understood the hatred for the sweep considering it is a pretty solid gainer.
I think a lot of folks still have residual dislike for jet sweeps as well as bubble screens largely because of the previous offensive coaching staff.
I like anything that gets us yards and points, I'm not gonna discriminate.
I only hate the call when it's 3rd down or 2nd and long
Sorry to see your participation in the community cease Fencer. Your commentary has had me rolling on many occasions. Appreciate this analysis!
Did the data consider the jet sweep to the short side of the field/boundary vs. the wide/field side by any chance? My eyes and what's left of my football mind have always told me that is the issue, but I'm wondering what the data says?
It did not. Since we can reasonably expect to see some jet sweeps next season now I'm going to aim to go a little more in depth on the data I collect next season (time permitting).
Go big or Go back?
Some thoughts:
1) There is some variation- jet sweeps include a true zoned sweep (everyone reaches to the sweep side) or the inveverted veer (veer release by the wing, block down, option the edge and OG pulls and leads up. I thought that the IVR was more effective, but could be wrong.
2) IVR was more prevenlant with Hooker. Didn't see one BB IVR carry vs UVA. BB's starts are causation for the drop. QP or HH means more IVR/jet sweep.
IVR was more prevenlant with Hooker. Didn't see one BB IVR carry vs UVA. BB's starts are causation for the drop. QP or HH means more IVR/jet sweep.
Could be that Hooker and QP have a little more variety in their running ability (like going up the middle, running outside) where as I noticed BB is mainly running in open field and tries to make a man miss, I thought he especially did well with that against NC State.
French: Question, the jet sweep is used to make a defense cover the entire width of the field or to slow their pursuit? So even if we don't gain a significant amount of yards each time it severed its purpose? You've probably explained this in detail and I missed it but I wanted to know your thoughts. Thanks!
The IVR is intended to pressure the defense on the edge and up the middle simultaneous. It is very similar to a Wing T buck sweep series. The sweep is the bread and butter- it looks exciting because it goes outside. But generally, it is designed to get a small chunk of reliable yards to take advantage of any slow pursuit. The fullback trap in the wing t isn't as sexy, but it pops for big plays when you condition the defense to the sweep and they overpursue. They are symbiotic- being effective on one makes the other more effective, and each are easier to stop when you don't force the defense to account for the other.
The zone stretch version of the jet sweep is just an outside zone read... the pursuit gets derailed by the threat of a QB keeper on a read or a counter. I don't think it is as effective.
So jet sweep good, reverse bad?
The reverses against Duke and BC went for 5, 12, but yeah both reverses near the end of the season failed miserably. I was a little sore with running one against UVA up 3 scores in the 3rd when we didn't need to get cute.
On one hand I liked trying for a big play against UVA just for the sake of piling on points because fuck them, on the other hand I thought it was just riskier than running a jump pass to the H-back down the seam or even a WR pass with Robinson.
UVA corner blitzed into the reverse. Sometimes the DC makes the right call
The lack of jet sweep this season was rather aggravating because we ran so few base plays. The QB draw/run/bash with the inside zone was so constantly used, it was too predictable.
I also noticed we didn't run a lot of motion with orbit this year, where we could have optioned into it, since misdirection is so key to the offense. This may pertain more to us trying to run the Oregon offense with BB, but Oregon is motion heavy. So, I don't really know what Corn's philosophy was, other than play his own mind games.
I have nothing to add to this conversation but feel obligated to comment because of my signature. Good job.
Need to see data on number of QB draws and four vert/fades. I'm sure it would be astonishing.
Now what are we supposed to bitch about? Oh, nvm I just read the comment above me.
Only 18 surprised me. I have no gripe with a jet sweep or bubble screen, I have a gripe when our offense starts to boil down to 5 plays on repeat. Last year it seemed like the O too scared to do anything but the safe QB plays and pray for skill position athleticism. I think the Jet sweep can be a very effective tool to keep the defense from loading the box to stop your QB read plays. If you have players that can be impactful with the ball in their hands, then get them the ball any way and all day.
So now with Hooker leaving, we taking the over or under on 18 next season?
Biggest shocking stat I have seen today is Hooker had 40 more carries in 8 starts than Paxton Lynch had in a full season... and watching Memphis film it felt like they ran Lunch to death.
How much of that is on Hooker for his read, or lack thereof, and how much is on the coaching staff for straight up calling his number?
Biggest shocking stat I have seen today is Hooker had 40 more carries in 8 starts (on third-and-long plays only) than Paxton Lynch had in a full season... and watching Memphis film it felt like they ran Lunch to death. (/s)
I get it. Sadly, but I get it.
Read much of this and the bickering is probably a great indicator of the state of our football program and the leadership of our AD.
Yeah, but I come here for some amount of bickering. I see it as no different that the arguements I would have on barstools after the game my Hokie buddies.
Nice! I'm glad to see this. I've been as critical of jet sweeps under this staff as I was for [whatever play it was] from the previous coaching staff. Looks like jet sweeps aren't the bugaboo I thought they were. Thanks Fencer
Boom or Bust it seems as the numbers went up both directions; not Mark McGuire levels by any means.