HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: #16 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (13-3, 7-2) AT PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (8-5,4-4) 7PM RSN

HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: #16 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (12-3, 6-2) AT PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (8-5,4-4) 7PM RSN

It's gameday!#StoneByStone | #Hokies 🦃— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 3, 2021

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: Feb 3 2021 7 PM
Opponent: Pittsburgh
Site: Peterson Events Center
RSN, Tom Werme (play-by-play) and Mike Gminski (analyst)
Virginia Tech Sports Network.

Excited to join Cameo!If you would like a personal video message from me for yourself or your favorite Hokie, hit me up!🎉 Greetings ✅ 💒 or 👨‍🎓 Announcements ✅Life PxP 😂 ✅Donating a portion of proceeds to help raise mental health awareness!https://t.co/Bu5wdAm3AI— Jon Laaser (@LazeVT) February 3, 2021

Jon Laaser (play-by-play) and Mike Burnop (analyst)

Where you at CavMan?? pic.twitter.com/OHXszBxPUm— HokieBird (@TheHokieBird) January 31, 2021

_
What did one Pitt fan say to the other Pitt fan?
Trick Question, as Pitt has one more fan than UVA Spring Games...Dad Joke 101

The Hokies take on the Pittsburgh Panthers after a complete dismantling of Virginia, using a 19-0 run to win decisively. The Hokies Keve Aluma put on a one man show early on and the Tech defense held Virginia to its lowest shooting performance on the season. Any question of who the better team was, was answered spectacularly by the Hokies Social Media team.

Our State. pic.twitter.com/EpyarrD8Xg— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) January 31, 2021

The Hokies are 9-7 against Pittsburgh going into their 17th meeting. The Hokies beat Pittsburgh last February and come in on a five-game win streak over the Panthers. This game is on the Regional Sports Networks.

"This big"

The Panthers are coached by Jeff Capel III, who has been at Pittsburgh since 2018. The Panthers are 38-41 under Capel III, who is now 213-151 as a Head coach with ten years as a head coach at VCU and Oklahoma before spending seven years in the Duke Dungeon as an assistant. The Panthers have not reached the post season under Capel even with last year's tournament cancelled, they likely would not have received a post-season invitation. He has an ignominious 13-32 record in the ACC. His Panthers are also 2-14 in February.

Pitt started the season quickly, jumping out to an 8-2 start, but has struggled for consistency, having had four game postponed by Covid protocols. They face the Hokies on a three-game losing streak and then will be paused again due to Florida State postponing three games, including the Hokies.

Coach Capel III's Panthers come in 8-5 and 4-4 in the ACC. They lost early in the season to St Francis PA, but seemed to right the ship with eight wins in their next nine games. They then won games over Drexel, Northern Illinois, Northwestern and Gardner Webb before entering ACC play. Pittsburgh then beat Miami, lost to Louisville and then went into the first of three pauses due to Covid precautions. The Panthers then returned to beat Syracuse, sandwiched a two-game pause with another win over Syracuse. Their last win came over Duke on January 19th, before their third pause. After this final pause, Pittsburgh embarked on a three-game losing streak to Wake Forest, UNC and Notre Dame.

Gone from the Panther's are Eric Hamilton, Kene Chukwuka, Anthony Starzynski to graduation. Trey McGowens transferred to Nebraska. KJ Marshall transferred to Garden City Community College. Samson George transferred to Central Arkansas. Ryan Murphy transferred to Tulane. These departures represented nearly half the Panthers scoring in 2019-20.

The Panther's brought in the 27th ranked recruiting class in the form of two four-stars, Center John Hugley IV and Forward William Jeffress Jr. The class is rounded out by three three-stars, Forward Noah Collier, Center Max Amadasun, and Guard Femi Odukale. Outside Hugley, who is now suspended, the freshman have had minimal impact. The Panthers only had one transfer in in Nike Sibande, who came over from Miami(OH). Sibande has also had limited impact.

Justyn Mutts will see a familiar face when he meets up with Ithiel Horton, who was Mutts teammate at Delaware for two seasons before transferring to Pitt.

Defensively, Pittsburgh's main point of emphasis is their match-up zone. Capel's zone applies pressure on the basketball, takes away the corner drives and covers the elbow and supports help side defense. He uses "41 Hot" press that puts pressure on the teams ball handlers in the full-court, trying to force the ball to a poor ball handler.
Capel's defense, similar to the Pack-Line, is especially focused on denying the baseline. Defenders are taught to position themselves to not allow any baseline penetration, relying on help defense to close an adjusted drive to the center of the lane. The key weakness of this defense, much like UVA, is shooters on the perimeter AND hit those shots, the integrity of this defense begins to fall apart. The Pitt early success was more about opponents missing open shots rather than the defensive pressure from the Panthers. The number of baskets on open shots have steadily increased during their current losing streak.

Offensively, the Panthers run a very up-tempo, attacking offense. Pitt averages 1.5 attempts per minute, or about 60 shots per game. They are very efficient, averaging 1.2 points per attempt. Nothing spectacular jumps out at you in this offense outside Justin Champagnie, who is an ACC POY candidate. The Sophomore Guard is a tall wing player with enough bulk to bang down low on both ends. There will be times where Coach Capel runs out five although large Guards to try to gain advantage in transition.

They create offense by stressing the importance of defensive rebounding, where they average pulling down nearly 70% of opponents missed shots. "We were just trying to find five guys to play hard. So it didn't matter whether it was big, small, or whatever," Capel said. "We've got to figure out who our best guys are that are going to be able to do what we need to do to give ourselves the best chance to win

The Panthers are shooting 19.4 three-point attempts per game in ACC play, hitting 6.5 of them. This means the Panthers do not really rely on perimeter scoring.

Which Hokie would you like to see on this cover? 🤔#StoneByStone | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/LXzxcCkHyM— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 3, 2021

Panthers Backcourt

Justin Champagnie
#11, SO, G, 6-6, 200 lbs
Brooklyn, NY Bishop Loughlin (NY)
20.1 Pts, 12.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Shoots 53% from the floor, 40% from the perimeter and 66% from the line.

Au'Diese Toney
#5, JR, G, 6-6, 210 lbs
Huntsville, AL - Trinity Christian Academy
14.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Shoots 45% from the floor, 30% from the perimeter and 68% from the line. Toney, now in his third year with the program, is the team's best defensive player, who, at 6-foot-6, is also capable of guarding several different positions.

Xavier Johnson
#1, JR, G, 6-3, 200 lbs
Woodbridge, VA - Bishop O'Connell HS
13.2 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 6.1 Ast
Shoots 38% from the floor, 30% from the perimeter and 79% from the line.

Ithiel Horton
#0, SO, G, 6-3, 200 lbs
Vauxhall, NJ - Roselle Catholic HS
8.6 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Shoots 38% from the floor, 36% from the perimeter and 83% from the line.

Femi Odukale
#2, FR, G, 6-5, 185 lbs
Brooklyn, NY - Springfield Commonwealth Academy
4.5 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Shoots 41% from the floor, 17% from the perimeter and 38% from the line.

William Jeffress
#24, FR, G, 6-7, 205 lbs
Erie, PA - McDowell HS
2.2 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Shoots 22% from the floor, 13% from the perimeter and 50% from the line.

Nike Sibande
#22, SR, G, 6-4, 185
Indianapolis, IN - Crispus Attucks High School
3.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Shoots 33% from the floor, 40% from the perimeter and 33% from the line.

Panthers Frontcourt

Karim Coulibaly
#12, SO, F, 6-8, 215 lbs
Bamako, Mali Scotland Campus (PA)
5.3 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Shoots 54% from the floor, 50% from the perimeter and 80% from the line. Coulibaly rarely shoots from the perimeter.

CAPTION THIS
Terrell Brown
#21, SR, F, 6-10, 235 lbs
Providence, RI Tilton School
2.3 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Shoots 37% from the floor, does not shoot from the perimeter and 61% from the line.

What to expect from Pittsburgh?

The Panthers come in with four players averaging 8.6 or more points per game but the Panthers bench contributions are spotty at best. Those four players take over 73% of the Panthers shots. That said, Pittsburgh relies too heavily on their starters and any time they substitute, opponents typically surge. Johnson and Koulimbaly both average more than 3 fouls per game and spend critical moments on the bench.

The Panthers commit 16.4 fouls per game. Opponents shoot 17 free throw attempts in ACC play but luck has been on Pitt's side here, as opponents have only shot 62.5% from the line. The Hokies average 19.2 attempts per ACC game, so expect somewhere in the middle in this game. Pittsburgh does excel at getting to the free throw line but they too struggle significantly at the line.

Defensively during the losing streak, Pitt has allowed 76 points to Wake Forest, 75 to North Carolina and 84 to Notre Dame. Those opponents' shooting percentages gradually have risen from 46.4 to 52.5 to 56.1. I do not expect much improvement considering the Hokies are much more efficient than those recent opponents.

"This is not about X, this is about us," Panthers coach Jeff Capel said when asked about Johnson's performance. "We were bad. We were bad collectively as a group. One person wasn't bad. Everyone on our team was bad. And so, it's correcting everyone, not just X. He was not the only one out of control, we were out of control. This is not about one guy."

ACC opponents are averaging a 70.4 points per game against this defense, or about middle of the pack in the ACC. ACC opponents are shooting 44% from the floor and only 31% from the perimeter against the Panthers.
Pittsburgh's assist ratio is close to 66%. Xavier Johnson leads Pittsburgh's passing game with 6.1 assists per contest, but then only one other Panther is averaging more than two per game.

As a team the Panthers are shooting 34% from the perimeter on 19.4 attempts per game. Only Champagnie and Sibande shoot better than 40% with more than 1 attempt per game. Four different shooters average 3.6 attempts per game from the perimeter.

Pittsburgh holds a slight rebounding edge in ACC play. They average 38.8 rebounds to opponents 36.6 in eight ACC contests. Champagnie far and away leads the Panthers averaging more than 12 rebounds per contest. During Pitt's three-game losing streak they are averaging 34.3 rebounds compared to 43.1 before the streak started.
The suspension of Forward John Hugley has played a role in this decline as Pittsburgh is not deep in the Frontcourt. Hugley was third on the team in rebounds but is now facing three felony counts relating to an incident involving a stolen car.

The Hokies

The Hokies will have their hands full with the Champagnie, but the Hokies have shown they have the ability to shut down a single contributor, especially one that Mutts or Aluma can body up defensively. Aluma was able to guard Laszewski and Hauser alone last game and will likely be called upon to guard Champagnie for most of this game. "The mantra around here is defense travels," Young said. "We should be really good in that regard, night-in and night-out."

While Pittsburgh plays solid defense, they allow opponents a significant number of open looks. This is the contest that Pitt has to choose between getting burned inside or out. I would expect them to focus inside on Aluma but this frees up Cattoor and Cone to do significant damage. "To think that kid was at Wofford (before transferring to Virginia Tech)," Jeff Capel said. "He was absolutely dominant in the last eight minutes against Virginia. We're going to have to figure out a way to try to slow him down a little bit." They create about an equal number of turnovers as they give back.

Hunter was on @accnetwork's #PackerAndDurham this morning and spoke on our big win over UVA, his 'shot-clock' dunk & more @CattoorHunter's full interview 👇#StoneByStone | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/JrKRpDHJba— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 2, 2021

The one area the Hokies excel that they must be able to continue is in offensive rebounds. The Hokies being able to create additional opportunities is critical to beating Pittsburgh. Opponents right now average more than ten offensive rebounds per game on thirty-three missed shot attempts. The second chance scoring has been a significant edge for Pitt's previous two opponents.

If the Hokies shoot to their ACC averages of 44% from the floor and their 32.7% from the perimeter with at least 55 attempts, they will have done enough to win this game.

YOU HAVE TO HIT YOUR FREE THROWS. Pittsburgh opponents so far only make 11.7 free throws per game, but that's on 63% shooting. The Hokies currently shoot 71% which would give them almost two more points toward the final results. The Hokies usually make 13.7 free throws per game.

Pitt knows how to get back in games, so the Hokies cannot afford to relax. Give Pitt a few minutes of undisciplined basketball and they will surge back into the game. They staged comebacks against Duke of 11 and 18 points to win. Their loss to a difficult Wake Forest team was by a single point with several lead changes late in the game.

Pitt though seems to have struggled to play cohesive basketball with all their schedule changes. The fact the Hokies have managed to not have much of their schedule disrupted has helped. "I say this as I knock on wood for the 3,000th time this year," Young said. "We haven't missed a practice."

Highlight of the Virginia Game

Keve also picked up some national awards as well, earning weekly honors from @espn & @NaismithTrophy 🙌#StoneByStone | #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/nD4Wy0BTej— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 1, 2021

So many things to like but Aluma gets the nod. He has had his struggles and seemed to be "Angry Birds" in this one and everything worked. He was recognized Nationally for his efforts.

In Closing
This game is going to come down to the little things, generate turnovers, force contested shots, offensive rebounds, and execution at the free throw line by the Hokies. In these four area, the Hokies need to generate at least 25 points to be successful. Twelve to fourteen at the line, ten or more between turnovers and second chances. The most critical though is the one that lessens Pitt on the scoreboard by making them earn their points.

Pitt allows too many open looks for the Hokies not to make them pay. The perimeter shooting alone likely decides this game. The more Jalen Cone, Naheim Alleyne and Hunter Cattoor shoot cleanly from outside, the harder it will be for the Panthers to focus on Aluma inside.

Hokies get the ACC Road Win 81-69.

Confidence Factor: Four Popcorns, Pitt is hit or miss on showing up, I expect a close first half more from Pitt adrenaline but the second half should be mostly one sided. My only hesitation is that two of the Hoies three losses are on the road.
Four Popcorns

Confidence Factor:

Love this quote from @CoachMKYoung 𝙊𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧𝙨:"They're great people. They're about the right stuff. They make it fun for this old boy, I can tell ya that."Easy to play hard for a guy like that ✊ pic.twitter.com/4ix59rhvK1— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 1, 2021