Examining the net effect of the transfer portal on Virginia Tech football

According to Max Olson and Bruce Feldman at The Athletic, more than 2,100 players have entered the portal since August 2020, and about two-thirds of those are scholarship players. [1] Think about that for a second – there are over 2,100 players in the portal in less than a calendar year – and that doesn't include the guys who had previously entered and never found a home. The transfer portal is college football's beautiful mess. Often derided and not entirely understood, what should we make of Virginia Tech's portal use in general?

Since the portal officially started in 2018, Virginia Tech has lost 43 players to the portal while only gaining 15 players. The players lost include:

* - Power Five school
** - Group of Five school
*** - FCS or JUCO school
"-" - no new team found

This equates to:

• 10 players transferring to Power Five schools (with 1 of those players later transferring to a G5 school)
• 13 players going to G5 schools (with 2 of those players reentering the portal and not finding a team)
• • Cannot find confirmation on Kumah, but one of those aggregating twitter/portal accounts said he had entered at some point last year.
• 11 players going to FCS schools and JUCO
• • This does count Grimsley who reportedly enrolled at Hampton University but was never on the roster and did not compete in 2020
• And 9 players who have yet to join another team from the portal (and could include multiple players who have left their first school and did not rejoin another team).

Average Ranking (only include players ranked out of high school):

• Power 5 Transfers: .8765 (outlier is Hazelton)
• Group of 5 Transfers: .8543
• FCS/JUCO Transfers: .8741
• No new team: .8445

If you multiple the average ranking per transfer group with the percent of players per transfer group you'll find that most of the talent transferred to:

• G5: largest portion of transfers, with a mid-three star rating.
• Nowhere: second largest portion of transfers, with lower-mid three-star rank
• P5: third largest portion of transfers, highest ratings
• FCS/JUCO: smallest portion of transfers, second-highest ratings

The outcomes of said players are more subjective, however here is my take. There are 8 players whose outcomes are TBD (Hooker, QP, Saunders, Beadles, Crawford, Pinckney, Nester, and Hudson). Of those, I have concerns that Saunders, Crawford, and Pinckney might bust with their new teams. Crawford because of injury history, Saunders for rumors about buy-in (if he had trouble off the field with partying, ECU is not the place to go), and Pinckney for lack of buy-in. Pinckney has yet to see the field after sitting one. I believe that Nester is most likely to succeed. I think Hudson has a good chance as well. Hooker has to win the starting job (which is not guaranteed) otherwise he is a bust in my opinion. QP is the hardest to project because NDSU is a powerhouse that makes great use of strong running quarterbacks. QP has the size and arm strength to succeed but does he have enough accuracy even for NDSU? Time will tell. Justin Beadles is TBD despite not signing with a team because he just entered and I feel has the talent to find a new team.

There are four players I have question marks for include Travon Hill, Cam Goode, Damon Hazelton, and Samuel Denmark. I don't think there is any situation where Travon Hill would have come back, but he is definitely a guy I would take back if possible (hence why he isn't in my want-back group). Cam Goode seems to have figured things out at UCF, but I'm not sure he does that without failing at Virginia Tech. Damon Hazelton played at three high schools and three colleges before going to the NFL, I'm not sure what that says about his ability to stay in one place. Samuel Denmark was quietly a solid fifth receiver on Coastal Carolina last year, but I had always assumed he was a pure track guy.

There are guys who I would take back or are trending upwards: Jeremy Webb, Khalil Ladler, Jordan Stout, Tavante Beckett. Webb seemed to bounce back well after his two massive injuries in FCS, but would it be enough for ACC – I have no idea? Khalil Ladler played fine for Louisiana Tech, but I would imagine he would have been useful last year. Jordan Stout when allowed to be more than a kickoff specialist played well for Penn State. Tavante Beckett was more a situation of circumstance but had a strong career at Marshall. Obviously would take back Nestor and Hudson, but those seem like bridges that were burned and not coming back.

The rest of the players (27 in total) seem to be busts. Wheatley, Fairs, Rodgers, Steward, Patterson, Grimsley, Gaines, Proctor, and Becton are busts for not finding teams (though Fairs, Wheatley, and Rodgers presumably still have a chance). Simmons and Gaines seem more like injuries may have derailed things (Webb and Crawford could also be in here) Bowick, Harris, Kane, Mihota, Porcher, Crossen, and Fullwood went down to FCS and were not impact players (could change for Bowick, but there are potentially other issues as well). TJ Jackson, DeBose, Plantin, and Cunningham seem to be development busts or misevaluations. Watts, Kearney, Savoy, Kumah, Josh Jackson, and Ellis seem to be both evaluation and development busts as these players went to G5/P5 schools and had opportunities to prove themselves and didn't.

Of the players we've brought in through the portal, it has not been enough to offset the losses. The losses I think are more of a sheer volume of lost players than it is the talent, although there was some considerable talent lost. What has compounded this transferring issue is that the incoming transfers are fewer in numbers and it coincides with a downturn in recruiting. Most of the new transfers are for 2021 and therefore are TBD. Of the 2021 transfers, 4 of the 5 are P5 transfers (Blumrick, Jordan, Williams, and Daley – the last three with starting experience) one is a G5 (McCary, a freshman with potential). Also includes two preferred walk-ons in Jared Cole (RB, UMass) and Will Ross (K, SCAR). In general, we've mostly targeted P5 players out of the portal, with only McCray, Hoffman, Taylor, Reed, and Hodge as non-P5 players. However, even Justus Reed originally from the University of Florida.

The only unmitigated success is Khalil Herbert. Raheem Blackshear had an off-year, but I think still has the potential to succeed in 2021 as a multithread player. Burmeister will have a full season to prove himself as the unquestioned starter. Brock Hoffman has had his ups and downs on the field (not counting whatever happened between him, his family, and Bryan Hudson on Twitter). Justus Reed wasn't the difference-maker I'd hoped in a somewhat unfair situation, so I won't truly label him as a bust (but was trending towards that at times). Changa Hodge seemed to be in a similar unforgiving situation, but with the ACL tear, I fear his future at VT may be over. Devin Taylor came around late but certainly was not the impact player that many hoped from the FCS All-American. Evan Fairs was a great downfield blocker, but that was about it – and he is currently in the portal.

Moving forward, Virginia Tech will need to do a better job in the portal of finding young players with upside (like McCray) and limiting the sheer exodus of players. I'm not sure how that is necessarily possible as the portal continues to grow each year and with the current COVID-driven scholarship crunch. Limiting the recruiting evaluation misses should help, getting young players onto the field should coincide with that.

Edit*:

Including a table of transfer-ins under the portal. Does not include kicker Romo and Hoban, Dillion Spaulding who did not make the roster. Otherwise, everyone is from the 247 transfer portal page.