I'll confess I don't know what's behind numbers like that, but wouldn't you have a pretty high chance of winning any football game if you're leading with three minutes left?
Though VT seems pretty determined to change that.
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Two or three minutes left AND possession of the ball!!!!
(There's a reason why there are averages. Some are on one side, some are on the other...unfortunately.)
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The only game I was able to see in person my freshman year... back when only sophomores and up could purchase season tickets (and even that was still lottery).
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Painfully, my dad and I turned to each other after we started our second to last drive (up 2) with a successful first down passing play (that went for a first down) and said "I think we may have pulled that one out too early," in terms of clock management. It actually would have been better to run the ball once or twice (would have ended the game if twice), then run that play for the first down. By running it on the 1st down of the drive, we basically just moved 16 yards up field, and only took 1 timeout off the board on a play where the clock stopped on a first down as well, saving a few extra seconds... Thus leaving us in a situation where we did two unsuccessful run plays (used last two timeouts), then got sacked on 3rd and long and drained that clock down as much as we could. Their final drive started with 58 seconds. If we had run just one more play on that drive they would have had 18-20 seconds left when they got the ball for their potential game winning drive.
That one hurt really, really bad when it turned out to be the difference.
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I don't know if you can overthink that one too much. On third-down that play has a much lower chance to work as when the defense is 100% convinced you're going to run on first-down. Pulling it out on first down is a nice dose of aggression that I didn't expect. But closing out a game requires more than one successful execution.
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I knew someone would counter with it being more obvious on third down, which I mention would have ended the game. I agree.
However, you run up the middle on 1st down THEN run that on 2nd down, I'm not sure it's any more a surprise to run that on 1st down than 2nd down. That scenario is the one where they only have 18-20 seconds left even if we fail to get another 1st down.
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So just to get some context, what is the NCAA season record for most games lost with a 90 percent plus chance of winning with less than three minutes to play. Asking for a friend who is a Va Tech coach.
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I got to Tech in 92. I used to tell people if the games ended after the 3rd quarter, we'd be awesome, or another variation, we're the greatest 3 quarter team in the country!
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yeah we know it's pretty bad isnt it
Should this be true for 3 games? WVU, ND, and Syracuse?
Against WVU, we were 57.4% with 2:06 left...then not.
I'll confess I don't know what's behind numbers like that, but wouldn't you have a pretty high chance of winning any football game if you're leading with three minutes left?
Though VT seems pretty determined to change that.
Two or three minutes left AND possession of the ball!!!!
(There's a reason why there are averages. Some are on one side, some are on the other...unfortunately.)
yeah and I was one of 66,233 letting the rain wash away tears in '07 when Matty Ice ripped our hearts out with less than 3 minutes left.
The difference now, I'm just numb to it.
That was the saddest walk back to Foxridge in my 5 years in Blacksburg.
I remember that well.
The only game I was able to see in person my freshman year... back when only sophomores and up could purchase season tickets (and even that was still lottery).
That was a cold night, maybe you're just still numb.
I'm starting to think this Justin Fuente guy may not have what it takes to succeed here...
Painfully, my dad and I turned to each other after we started our second to last drive (up 2) with a successful first down passing play (that went for a first down) and said "I think we may have pulled that one out too early," in terms of clock management. It actually would have been better to run the ball once or twice (would have ended the game if twice), then run that play for the first down. By running it on the 1st down of the drive, we basically just moved 16 yards up field, and only took 1 timeout off the board on a play where the clock stopped on a first down as well, saving a few extra seconds... Thus leaving us in a situation where we did two unsuccessful run plays (used last two timeouts), then got sacked on 3rd and long and drained that clock down as much as we could. Their final drive started with 58 seconds. If we had run just one more play on that drive they would have had 18-20 seconds left when they got the ball for their potential game winning drive.
That one hurt really, really bad when it turned out to be the difference.
I don't know if you can overthink that one too much. On third-down that play has a much lower chance to work as when the defense is 100% convinced you're going to run on first-down. Pulling it out on first down is a nice dose of aggression that I didn't expect. But closing out a game requires more than one successful execution.
I knew someone would counter with it being more obvious on third down, which I mention would have ended the game. I agree.
However, you run up the middle on 1st down THEN run that on 2nd down, I'm not sure it's any more a surprise to run that on 1st down than 2nd down. That scenario is the one where they only have 18-20 seconds left even if we fail to get another 1st down.
Ah, the importance of an effective run game. Alas Khalil Herbert, we hardly had ya.
So just to get some context, what is the NCAA season record for most games lost with a 90 percent plus chance of winning with less than three minutes to play. Asking for a friend who is a Va Tech coach.
In '92 when VT went 2-8-1, we had 7 leads in the 4th quarter...
I got to Tech in 92. I used to tell people if the games ended after the 3rd quarter, we'd be awesome, or another variation, we're the greatest 3 quarter team in the country!
Those are some painful memories.
So fuente is bad at math and that is why he can't football?