Fuente talk starts at about the 56 min mark. High level comments (taken out of context):
- Don't expect a change made before 12/16. The $2.5M isn't chump change for non-bluebloods
- Whit is a good AD, and is "one of the few people in this business who actually have a soul." People in Blacksburg want to give him a mulligan on hiring a football coach.
- Even if Fuente isn't fired until 12/16, the coaching search should already be underway
- This search is different than replacing Frank Beamer - when replacing Beamer, Whit needed the ability to carry out a public search to avoid tarnishing Beamer's legacy. Fuente's legacy (or lack thereof) doesn't need to be celebrated/respected, so Whit is 'safe' executing this search behind closed doors.
As always, I suggest listening to get the full context.
NEW SHOW-What makes seven teams good: UTSA, SMU, Wake, Pitt, Mich. State, Ole Miss, and SDSU-Franklin + Fuente-Tasting menu! Vested interests!Spotify: https://t.co/dPSch85FHgStitcher: https://t.co/m3wYfnWeUjGoogle: https://t.co/B2CDv37YNPApple: https://t.co/vlf2yPpNft— Split Zone Duo (@SplitZoneDuo) October 27, 2021
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Comments
I listened to this episode this am and it's definitely worth a listen to at least that part on our coaching situation.
Remember, all of this is just some folks' opinion. That said, it sounds pretty informed.
"Not the worst thing in the world to wait until 12/16."
"Whit is a good AD."
"Whit just got extended in August, so he's got the upper hand here."
Godfrey is among the most connected people in CFB.
It doesn't matter how connected someone is. Opinion is opinion.
Whit isn't about to share his inner thoughts with sports journalists, so their predictions of who might be interested in what is interesting speculation.
Yes but informed speculation from people in the know holds much more water than a random person such as myself with no inside info.
Also true. It's just that when names come up on these talk shows, people have to remember that it's speculation.
Another post having it both pays and being the contrarian. congratulations. I don't even frequent this board much but I picked up on this and thought your MO was interesting. State one point with a caveat and then further in the thread disagree with said point or hybrid it out in another post with constant baiting of folks. Always have to be right in your observations. social media blows nuts....is this noise...lol
My point earlier was that these radio hosts don't necessarily have "insider information". I suggested that they're speculating based on their knowledge of the industry, not necessarily because they have insight into Whit's search.
And I'm agreeing here that in spite of not having insider knowledge, they maybe know more than the casual observer. It's still opinion. My objection is to people thinking that the chatter is always based on something.
I'm not seeing those two comments as being in conflict with one another.
Assuming a connected industry "aggregator" doesn't ever actually have any inside information is a pretty big leap too. If you don't want to believe that there's fire with the smoke, great!
True. I didn't really have any objection to anything they said. And I did think their opinions were pretty well informed.
But Whit's MO is keeping his cards close to his chest. I'll be a bit surprised if we hear his choice from someone other than him.
Vtkey in a nutshell. A lot of us have quirks and none of us is perfect.
Except Fernley. That guy's perfect.
+1 !
i think everyone needs a reminder as well about what is in Whit's contract and the additional performance incentives that were added specifically for football. He's financially incentivized to make this program a success (i.e., the better the team performs, the more money Whit gets paid).
I've flip-flopped on the "wait" or "fire now" decision... at this point the $2.5M would be better invested on the next staff's assistants and not on an emotional decision.
Either 2.5M for staff that doesn't get a recruiting class or a recruiting class and you spend $2.5M
i see the logic but i also dont believe its that simple. I'm already assuming this class is already going to be bad because of the uncertainty around Fuente's future and/or the expectation that no player expects anyone from the current staff to be there when they arrive. This is regardless of who we get or if, heaven forbid, Fuente is back for another year. Assuming he's gone, I'd rather have the extra $2.5M to invest in better coaches that can retain what we have, and get us back proper recruiting and selling kids on why VT is the place for them to play. If we fire now we're out an extra 2.5 and recruits revisit their commitments. If we fire later we fire later we still risk losing commitments but have more money to throw around on the right staff to right the ship.
I see both sides too. Boils down to a cost benefit analysis I'm sure Whit has already been playing around with. I think if you've got a candidate in mind you're probably getting input from there too,
I'll push back in this. It's not like you choose by a great recruiting class or a shit class. Even if we land a new coach tomorrow, they still won't have their whole staff in place. Even they did, they still only have 1.5 months to put together a class - not really possible without time to build relationships.
It makes way more sense to save the $2.5m for the next staff IMO
Taking it a step further - assuming you can get a staff put together that can effectively mesh with the current players the team has been close so the results would likely be improved; get your class next cycle
It's not about an emotional decision, it's whether or not you risk losing out on a top target if you wait to move on. If the coach we want has multiple offers, and the other offer has the position open right now while we can only give a verbal promise that ours will open 12/16, the coach might prefer the sure thing and pass on us. Just no way to know if that would be a factor though.
This is categorically false - that's not how this industry works. Agents, ADs, and coaches all know how to play the game.
A prospective scenario can't be categorically false. I didn't assert this is what will happen, just described a possible scenario. I see what you're saying, but I don't think you can definitively say how the industry works in all cases or how every player plays the game. Weird shit happens in CFB all the time. Coaches that were sure to be fired aren't, coaches that basically have a deal done and agreed upon suddenly don't have an offer. Agreements in principle go up in smoke. Big-money donors are fickle and can pull their support for any reason at any time because you looked at them wrong. Are you seriously saying with 100% certainty that a coach wouldn't weigh two options differently if one was a verbal promise of a job and the other was the chance to sign a contract on the spot?
In this case, the coach will pick the better job (like Lane Kiffin choosing FAU HC job over LSU OC). Or, if the coach picks the lesser job, they'll just leave when the preferred offer becomes finalized (a la Manny Diaz being the HC at temple for 4 days before going to Miami).
So let's say there's 2 jobs, in equally desirable locations, that are paying the same salary, and they are otherwise equivalent - the agent is going to pin these two offers into a bidding war. And let's say they max out at the same compensation package. Then sure, I guess the 'official' offer will have the upper hand. But this scenario is so rare, it's not worth worrying about.
I agree that nothing will happen prior to Dec. 16. For all the reasons I've seen for an earlier firing, I have yet to see that it truly values $2.5M. It's not an easy calculation, for sure, but I can't fathom attrition of recruits, loss of brand good will, or any other reason will add up $2.5M. Anybody do cost analysis and can help explain why a pre-Dec 16 firing is financially prudent?
It isn't.
I think Whit's ideal scenario is to have a handshake agreement in place with his candidate of choice prior to 12/16 and fire Fuente the day it drops.
Seems to me that's true.
That makes sense. I also believe that if Whit has the ideal candidate in place, but if we need to make a move before 12/16 to ensure we get our candidate then I believe we move before 12/16 and eat that money. Sure $2.5 million is a good chunk of change that I would like to not burn if we don't have to, but if keeping to that date jeopardizes our chances at getting who Whit wants it's an acceptable sacrifice IMO.
This is also true.
I expect that this is something Whit is pretty good at and knowledgeable about. I also think that Whit will move heaven and earth to get the guy he thinks is the best fit.
This probably the best reason that I've seen where the cost would probably exceed $2.5M to wait until Dec 16. If the pool of talented coaches is not going to be there by Dec. 16 and VT is left with an undesirable solution that leads to longer mediocrity, then that could easily cost over $2.5M. Loss of further good will brand, loss of new donors in the current student body, loss of current donors that lose interest, loss of corporate donors, etc.
Of course, it's always speculative on whether the coach that is attainable now verse the one attainable on Dec. 16 would bring VT back to that level. Fuente was a surefire at the time he has hired. So was Tom Herman and so many more. And sometimes, the afterthoughts (like Mike Young and Frank Beamer) end up being much better than the perception at the time they were hired. But sometimes the afterthought is James Johnson, and yea, if VT is left to hire football's version of James Johnson because it has to wait until Dec. 16, I do think that is imperative that the Fuente be fired earlier.
It seems to me that the ideal candidate, while anxious to get started and secure/improve the current recruiting class, would prefer to have an additional $500k over five years for assistant coaches than watch that money walk away with the last guy.
This is an excellent point - I equated it to support staff in my comment further down, but it could be for this or both things. Basic point is that it's a LOT of money that we could do a lot better things with if we keep it.
Possibly, but the other end of that thought is that a coaching candidate might be turned off by a Program that..
A) is seriously relying on that $2.5 million to provide competitive Asst. Coach salaries
B) is going to dangle a Lame Duck Coach for an additional 3 weeks just to save that $$
By the look of things, our season will likely end November 27th. It would certainly be an odd negotiating stance for Babcock to push for the new guy to enter some sort of agreement, while Fuente is still hanging around. I'm sure this sort of scenario has happened before, but if it were me, this would raise some serious red flags.
I think we may be fretting over this more than they are.
Duh, its the internet. The home of every worst case scenario and pipe dream coming true.
Pretty sure that type of thing happens everywhere they are replacing a coach.
I agree with VTkey above. I think we're worrying more about this than any potential coach would.
A) Whit said last year in his end of season presser that if he'd wanted to get rid of Fuente, we had the money to do it. The finances are about it being nicer to be able to spend that money on more salaries for assistants and support staff than spending it on a buyout.
B). My guess is that it's a fairly common practice for programs not in the SEC, or have crap tons of cash to blow, to wait until a buyout goes down before letting a coach go. I'd guess that coaches would expect this to be more of the norm than us being assholes about saving $$$.
And the agreement will be a handshake, Whit won't "push" - that's not his style. He is a coaches' AD - he's going to find someone who wants to be at Tech for the money and other attributes we ha=e to offer, not because he "pushed" someone into something.
Hell, if we fire Fuente, do we keep Cornelson? I'd think the answer is no - it wouldn't make any sense to keep Corny if we fire Fuente since the consensus is that Corny is probably the biggest problem. Beyond that, I wouldn't want to keep Williams because we've seen so little development of the WRs from when they get here, and Lecht - well, why do we have 10 RBs? So then who coaches the offense? If I was a potential incoming coach and gave two shits about the players, not sure I'd want to coach for an AD who left the players on offense without a coach. If you're not going to clean house on offense, why fire anybody mid-season? Just so the position is vacant? Whit can go and make a deal in principle or a handshake agreement (two terms for things before they'd be official - so it must happen pretty often).
These scenarios are just weird. All the "we have to fire Fuente before 12/15 to get the right guy" types can't seem to ID the "right guy" coach that is available early. So it's a useless thought experiment.
I'm pretty sure VT cannot announce a vacancy until Fu is officially fired. But also wouldn't be surprised when something leaks after 11/27.
I think it's also the case that any coach who is interested knows it's a potential vacancy, or at least their agents do.
Great mailbag in the Athletic about assistant pay, QC, recruiting staff at Tech compared to ACC family and that Tech is closer to UCF than to ACX teams and that it will be an issue with next coaching search. 2.5 million is a big deal at Tech.
If we'd lost the first 3 games of the season and it projected that drastically fewer people would come to all the home games, and we had a good interim solution, it MIGHT have made sense from a financial perspective. Possible loss of recruits would be a tough reason to burn that much money.
Best case scenario as others have mentioned is that Fuente realizes he's on his way out and is looking at potential jobs as well, finds something, and they can make the announcement after the UVA game with Fuente leaving and Whit announcing his replacement, giving new coach chance to call recruits before the early signing period. Barring that, we wait until the 16th to announce. Hopefully Whit has a candidate lined up who can start working almost immediately on the recruits.
Even if you say a big donor gave us $2.5M for the buyout, it doesn't change that we don't have a good interim solution, most likely couldn't get a replacement in mid-season, and possibly most importantly, wouldn't we prefer to use that money on building a bigger recruiting and support staff more like the blue bloods?
You're right.
If a donor would give you $2.5 million for the buyout, they'll probably also give it to your program on December 16th.
Also, wouldn't you have to compensate someone as the interim head coach?
Seems to me the whole calculation is related to what's ultimately best for acquiring the new coach. I'd rather see it go to him and the new staff than used as a buyout, unless you have to ink the new contract before December 16th in order to sign the coach you want.
In fact, a donor that big might make the donation contingent on Fu being gone.
It's not so much about the cost-benefit of the $2.5 as it is the recruiting class. Early signing day is Dec 15. If nothing is announced before then, we risk losing a lot of our commits. With a month and a half of uncertainty to go, these players might start thinking twice about coming to VT. Now some may say it really doesn't matter, but it also gives the new hire less time to actually recruit and try to keep recruits onboard and salvage the class. If we wait, we risk the class completely falling apart, which would then be three horrendous classes back to back to back. Will take the new hire a long time to pull us out of that.
Transfer Portal should help with this type of problem.
I keep seeing this argument about the recruiting class, but it's been in the national media that it's time for Fuente to go. The fans at Lane were chanting to fire him. It has to look likely that he's getting fired, but how many of the class have decommitted? Unless it happened this morning - none. There's 5 games left - maybe if we lose one or two more recruits might leave, but we haven't seen it yet, so why take a "sky is falling" viewpoint until we see some evidence it actually will happen.
If I was a recruit I'd wait to see who the next guy is.
I believe in Whit.
Fuente should resign on principle if he has any. He has failed by any measurable statistic.
Business is business. CJF and his agent will take their 7.5 large and go shopping for a new gig in the bottom half of the P5 or top half of the G5, likely as the head whistle unless CJF wants to step away for a year or visit the Saban Coaching Rehabilitation Camp.
Saban Friendship Gulag
I would LOVE to see Fuente be an OC at a blue blood. Would be nice to see if his offense is different than Corny's.
I agree on resigning, but the buyout is related to poor performance, so maybe him agreeing to take less than the $7.5M would be good, maybe saying he'll take $4. Just leaving would be kinda dumb, but agreeing to take less shows some class, at least imo.
Buyouts are put in place incase you get fired early. You only get fired only for poor performance or conduct unbecoming (i.e., failing to meet expectations). Thus, there is no principle to save that institution money for which you bargained.
If we are waiting until 12/16 to publicly pull the trigger then there should be a negotiation of the buyout. Hopefully it drops. Especially, if Fuente continues to lose.
Not sure what you're negotiating with. What does Fuente get for giving up $2.5 million? If it's a lot of money for VT, it's also a lot of money for Fuente.
Agree - the negotiation of the buyout is what makes it drop by $2.5M.
Saving face and hopefully showing his future employer he can be agreeable. I think it all depends if he wants to keep coaching and at what level
That's not how the coaching business works. Fuente will get hired (or not) based on his ability to convince someone that he can run a football team (HC) or offense (OC), not because he "graciously" accepted less on his buyout than his agent negotiated.
Why?
I mean as a fanbase we can hope for a lot of things. Realistically I can't say I'd take a penny less than what was owed to me and I wouldn't expect you to pay a penny less owed to you if we were in a similar situation for our jobs.
Fuentes coaching reputation is destroyed, no way he would take a penny less than what his agent negotiated. If he and his agent are smart he will take a low paying gig as an OC or coach at a lower division school to try and rebuild a new reputation so he can then scam another AD in a large payday. All we can really hope is that Whit learned his lesson about buyouts and negotiations so he does not give out another ridiculous contract...
Fu's buyout is in line with the market. If we want a cheap buyout, we'd have to hire a coach on the cheap.
Honestly, I don't know how Fuente's compares to schools in our relative tier, but people need to realize buyouts are absolutely standard, and in many cases, MUCH larger than ours. The news has been all over Jimbo Fisher's record of NINETY MILLION DOLLARS. Ours was based on Fuente having had a 10 win season and going to the ACCCG in his first year here. Things looked promising and Whit wanted to keep him around. I'm assuming Whit learned a lesson, but there will always be a risk that a coach who is successful here might run to an SEC coaching job/payday. That's the balance Whit has to deal with, paying a fair salary and doing what he can to keep a successful coach. That's the other thing that makes selecting a coach tough. Are we willing to be a revolving door of coaches moving to higher paying jobs, or do we want someone who can build something here. That was part of the allure of Fuente - he built something at Memphis. If we're okay being a revolving door, the more coaches that come through, the more likely to get ones who are duds.
I do know that some schools, who are running even tighter finances than VT, have paid multiple buyouts at the same time. It's worth trying to navigate it better than they did.
I was just about to edit that comment above about if we churn through bad candidates having to potentially either have multiple buyouts or suffer through a bad coach (possibly worse than Fuente), like multiple 3-4 win seasons, because you can't afford buyouts. And that may be why Whit wanted to keep Fuente. That first season made him look really promising. I don't think you see many coaches come in, win 10 games and go to the conference championship, then proceed to get progressively worse to this extent. We hadn't been to the ACCCG since 2011 and he got us there in year 1. And we hadn't done better than 8-5 since 2011, with most seasons being 7-6. Anyway - things had to look promising to Whit. I'll keeps saying it as well - I think Fuente is capable of being successful, he just can't recreate it, he seems to have to luck into getting the right players for the offense to be effective. And that to me is why he needs to go. The defense and other offensive positions will suffer because of our need to rotate through so many QBs, RBs, and even WRs.
What coach or his agent is signing that contract?
art briles? ;-) i honestly don't know if that is a sarcastic comment or not
The only incentive Fuente would have to renegotiate the buyout/timeline is if he wants to coach next somewhere else year and his opportunity to do so would be gone by Dec. 16. What incentives do you think Fuente has to renegotiate?
spot on. Crazy perhaps but I think he could wind up back at TCU
I agree wholeheartedly with this take. There's some financial and practical incentives on Fuente's part to want to move on as well, probably prior to Dec 16. The pool of opportunities that would be available will be significantly smaller afterwards. Maybe something opens up that's he's very interested in and the school is anxious to move forward in their process. It's not JUST about the money for 2022 and the buyout. There's career implications if for instance you don't coach a season because you're not interested in the available jobs. Maybe a $1M reduction in the buyout is beneficial to both sides.
Any job that is open to Fuente will be still open on 12/16.
Likewise, any coach who wants to come to VT will likely wait until 12/16 to ink it.
Assuming they trust that the job will be held for them, and they agree with the rest of the contractual provisions.
If they won't, but Whit thinks they're the right guy, he bites the bullet and pays Fuente what he has to.
Whit isn't the only one who would make quiet background arrangements and wait for the calendar.
Any school that wants to hire Fuente will discuss terms now, and have an agreement in place with paperwork for him to ink on Dec 17th.
I haven't listened yet but this is all pretty much the most logical of all things imo.
Whit doesn't seem like the guy to can a guy mid-season and I dont' think that ever really goes well unless your program is already on fire or you are firing for cause. If you don't need to fire mid-season I'm sure most ADs try to avoid it.
Whit is a good AD. I have no reason why people want him to go off of one hire. Fuente was the best hire at the time and everyone thought Whit knocked it out of the park with the hire. Just because Fuente didn't at least keep pace with where we want to be 9-10 wins doesn't mean Whit did a horrible job in the hire. It just didn't pan out. It wasn't like everyone advised against hiring Fu and he did it anyways.
Just b/c you haven't told Fu "You're fired" doesn't mean you can't have started reaching out to parties you are interested in. I highly doubt if Whit is looking to fire Fu at the end of the season that he is waiting until then to reach out to people to gauge interest and all that other stuff.
just my thoughts.
I guarantee that Whit was making calls before Lane Stadium emptied from the Syracuse game.
If we have to wait to 12/16 to save the buyout drop, so be it. The long view of getting the right next coach is by far the most important thing. Many recruits likely signed to play for VT as much, or more, than to play for CJF & Co. The right coach will quickly overcome recruiting setbacks, bringing some of his own, flipping a couple, and welcoming decommits from some that aren't his kinda guys. Not to mention working the portal and working his own system and culture at VT. Just get the right guy whatever his name is.
I will only be disappointed if Fu if still the coach on December 17
I could live with him being coach for another year if he canned half the offensive staff and had a plan.
Odds of that happening are slim to none, and slim is sliding out the door.
Slim actually fell off a cliff and died.
Slim is our offense?
Can't wait until 12/16. If he's going to can him, it has to be Sunday after UVA. Early signing period is 12/15-17. You're telling the kids JF recruited he's staying on by waiting that long and screwing them if they don't want to come if he isn't staying. You need to give the next coach a chance to make his pitch to that class. If we have the 7.5M , we have the 10M. That 2.5 can't be that important. If it is, and based on the Andy Staples article , one would think it is, then we just need to realize that's who we are as a program and no longer expect to compete yearly ,but rather (like 99 on a smaller scale), we'll compete when it's a perfect storm or we somehow land a transcendent player.
That's the question we have as a program - Weaver would promote JHam and be cheap. Whit obviously didn't do that when Beamer retired, but he also didn't empty out the bank. Losing Torian , while ultimately tied to Fuente, can also be tied to Whit for not giving the budget. Will he give the next coach the resources. People think Napier would come here and if he thinks Auburn doesn't have the pieces, I'd be hard pressed to think Whit can convince him he'd get what he needed here, when we haven't shown it before. It took the Baylor thing for Fuente to get more. Heck , we are closer to UL in salary pool than we are to FSU.
Now I will say if he gets fired, people better pony up in the donation front. Hokie fans seem to think we are a national program, but don't donate like one. We want to play with the big boys, we need to pay like big boys.
This. Fuente will be fired before the buyout drops, and recruiting is the reason why. Whit will have an agreement in principle before UVA, and Fuente will be fired on the next day or Monday, with the new head coach announcement shortly thereafter. This will allow the new head coach to recruit the current commits and talk to new recruits that may not have been interested in VT beforehand.
Nope. Kids aren't dumb, they can see what's happening as well as any of us. If I'm a VT commit, why not wait until mid Dec to see what shakes out & who's coming aboard? If multiple schools want me, why wouldn't I let them keep after me until Feb?
because spots can fill up and VT would be an uncertainty vs a known entity
Exactly this. Multiple schools might want you, but schools also have multiple kids they want. Unless you're a stud, there's no guarantee a spot will be saved for you. That's why 80% of recruits are signing in that early period.
We currently have a relatively large class at 19 commits. And while that's always subject to change (regardless of whether or not we retain Fuente), that class size is in no way proportional to Justin Fuentes' job security.
We've been playing football with mediocre results here and the head coach has been appearing on hot seat lists since 2018.
Everybody with a passing interest in Hokie football already knows that. That includes anybody committed to "Virginia Tech University" right now.
Fuente getting fired is not some crazy, chaotic situation that would shake folks to the bone and make them wonder what in the hell is happening at Virginia Tech right now.
Nobody's throwing away 2.5 million bucks for something like this. Recruiting is what it is.
I honestly disagree, I care more about getting them to sign, then fire him
you're essentially selling a lie to a bunch of 17/18yo kids then handicapping the new HC. We can't afford another bad recruiting class. Its one thing trying to fill gaps in for a single year with the portal but trying to fill gaps for 3 years of poor recruiting is impossible.
We're already at that point because of some of our classes
Firing the coach is one of the easiest ways of getting out of the LOI. Any new coach that doesn't release them immediately has a negative recruiting target on his back. Additionally you get a free transfer now, so even if they sign, they're still gone by the end of spring if they enroll in January and immediately eligible.
"Losing Torian , while ultimately tied to Fuente, can also be tied to Whit for not giving the budget."
Losing Torrian is 100% on Fuente. Fuente cut Torrian's and Wiles' salaries while still leaving available money on the table in the pool of money that Whit allocated for assistant coaches, just so all of his position coaches could be paid the same regardless of the fact that most of his guys had mostly G5 resumes compared to Gray's and Wiles P5 job experience. Not saying it changes anything with regards to where we are now, but Fuente screwed over Gray and Wiles.
well, he also saved a lot of money by never getting an OC either.
Does this mean we aren't getting Mike Tomlin?
Whit hasn't yet held a press conference confirming that we are not hiring Tomlin; therefore, all one can do is assume it isn't official yet.
Never say never. But never.
As long as we don't give him a blank check we should be good right? /s
I think Fuente should have been fired already. The fact he hasn't been leads me to believe he will be dismissed after the 15th. Nothing would really surprise me though.
I'm concerned that firing him late will be damaging beyond the 2.5 million we should "save" by waiting. The long term ramifications could be costly. If the recruiting class falls apart it will make the job for the next coach so much tougher. If waiting prevents us from getting our top pick and we end up with a dud it could spell trouble for a decade or more.
Ultimately I have to trust Whit to work some real magic to make it all work. I'm not sure how many more tricks he has to his sleeves but I really hope he has at least one more. It's going to be a near miracle to wait until Dec 15th and still get a good coach who can hold the recruiting class together and right the ship within 6 years.
We've already hashed out the alternative. The alternative is firing him mid-season, then who do we have as interim head coach? Even if we say JHam, Fuente isn't the only coach that needs to go, it would also be Cornelson and Williams on offense (I think everyone would agree on Corny, but WR development seems to have been minimal since Williams got here as well). So who coaches the offense? And even if we can kind of cobble together a coaching staff that can coach everyone, they'd be spread thin, and who would come up with the offensive schemes to make us competitive? We're still likely to lose most of the rest of our games. And we're not likely to be able to get a new coach that's willing to leave his current team mid-season anyway (and if he was willing, shows he's not very loyal to who he's with and might leave us mid-season if he's successful here). So even if you're right that it would be damaging beyond the $2.5M to keep him (which I disagree with), the situation is likely to play out the same, or close enough to the same that we might as well save the $2.5M.
I thought he should have been fired last year. I agree that a mid season firing does nothing to improve our prospects for the rest of this season. But a mid season or late November firing provides the opportunity to get the best possible coach signed and working before the recruiting class is finalized which allows for some time, albeit short, for the new coach to try holding the class together.
If we wait and the best coaches of the cycle are snatched up before VT has a chance to even get on the market that's only going to set us even further back. If our fan base isn't energized by the 5th or 6th best coaching option, ticket and merchandise sales are likely to decline. Sure, we might save 2.5 million this year but the longer term expense of acting slowly or conservatively could be much, much more significant.
It's akin to not throwing the ball because you don't want to throw an interception. In the short term, you've achieved your goal of not throwing an int. But in the grand scheme you've held back your offense by limiting the options and as a result you're losing more than winning.
This is a lost season. I don't really give a shit who coaches the remaining games of this season, to be honest.
What I care about is having a new coach in place before Early Signing Day so that we aren't fucked recruiting-wise for this cycle. December 16th is the ESD deadline, so if we wait til then, you're accepting an absolutely terrible recruiting class, our 3rd miserable class in 4 years. That in and of itself is a poison pill.
We'll lose far more than $2.5m in alumni giving and fan engagement over the long term if we fuck this up. And waiting til Dec 16th to make a move is absolutely fucking it up.
On the other hand, if they can't come up with that money, it means we have some vocal fans whose donations aren't necessarily matching their complaints.
How long have folks been complaining about Fuente, and saying they're holding back their donations until he's gone? Here's their chance to plus it back up.
With all due respect, if we wanted to make the move, 'creative accounting' would find the money.
This is the same kind of bullshit that we heard about making a big hire in basketball right up until the moment we made Buzz Williams a Top 5 paid head coach in the ACC.
With all due respect, creative accounting doesn't take the place of donations.
What I'm saying is that all those people who have been holding back their donations because of Fuente, can now find that money and put it to good use.
For me, it's a LOT more important to get the right coach than to try and save a handful of recruits out of a class of 25 that you don't know if you'll save anyway. I'm perfectly happy going along with any choices Whit makes in this regard. I have no idea what funds are available to Whit for this purpose.
Whit was the guy who figured out how to structure the finances to get Buzz to come to VT. I expect he has the expertise to structure the finances to navigate the football coaching transition.
To be fair, it's a $10 million buyout, which we can save a quarter of by waiting until after 12/16. I could see the justification for handling this either way.
Not sure how waiting until the end of the season is fucking it up? We're not likely to get another coach in mid-season, so that means we could wait until after UVA. Then it becomes about recruiting, and none of the recruits have decomitted despite all the media saying Fuente is likely to get fired. So if they're not already leaving, why throw $2.5M away. I mean, that's 25 staff at $100k per year. Or 50 staff at $50k. Over 5 years, it would be 5 staff at 100k or 10 staff at 50k. That could go a long way towards building the type of support staff we don't have compared to the blue bloods. But a bunch of people want to burn all that money because of recruits who MAY leave (but who haven't despite the writing on the wall), or that we MAY not be able to get our first choice coach.
Coaches generally don't leave their schools midseason, so all of the changes are most likely all negotiated during the season. Candidate coaches probably receive offers from a number of schools. If someone is looking for money, they could take the LSU or USC jobs. We have a lot to offer coaches - relatively easy conference schedule, easier path to the playoffs (than the SEC) if they're as successful as they probably hope to be. We've got a good AD that is well respected and won't be micromanaging them. Family atmosphere. Low cost of living. Good fanbase. Whit has a lot to sell. It would probably be better if he could sell them the additional support staff as well. My point is - Whit will get us a good coach. The deal will be made before We fire Fuente. Whit has a good enough reputation that coaches will know he'll hold up his side of a handshake agreement, so no need to fire Fuente before the end of the season.
End of the season? Sure. But lets be realistic, the end of the season is likely to be the end of the UVa game on November 27th. December 16th is over 2 and a half weeks later. Lots of movement can and absolutely will happen in that time and it is foolish to sit that out because of an extra $2.5m.
And, I'll go it further. If $2.5m is that important to the solvency of the entire Athletic Department, then we need to be eliminating some sports ASAP to ease the pressure on the margins.
I don't think we're talking about solvency here, just the best use of the funds.
It's certainly part of the negotiation, and I trust Whit do do the right thing, one way or the other.
Uh, I literally stated that the end of the season was after the UVA game at the beginning of my comment, then I addressed the potential "movement" in recruiting and potential loss of coaches. Was there some other "movement" I didn't address?
And I didn't say anything at all about solvency of the athletic department. Where did that come from? Whit even said at the end of last year that it wasn't about the $2.5M - if he wanted Fuente gone, they had the money to do that.
At this point I think we are definitely heading toward a December 16th termination date. This is incredibly disappointing on many levels. One, it shows that Fu's coaching stock is very low and he has no real prospects of coaching next year. Also it shows he isn't willing to negotiate on the buyout and he wants his golden parachute. After the terrible job he's done and the shape he's leaving the program in, I would be frankly embarrassed to try and siphon any more money from this program. I know people will say it's business and who would turn down money, but it's the principle and he doesn't deserve it frankly. He is going to make VT fire him rather than agree to a mutual exit. Once again, Whit leaves Fu with all the leverage. Good riddance.
Second, to me it shows that even with the additional Reach funds, the program is still tight on cash. If $2.5 is the deciding factor for waiting that late to fire him, that says a lot. Finally, this will give the new hire virtually no time to salvage the class if a lot of recruits bolt prior to the early signing day. Three horrendously bad classes in a row is going to be a tough hole to climb from. They will have their work cut out and need to work the portal hard. I'm also not going to set myself up for disappointment here - I'm bracing for a very safe VT type of hire. I just don't think Whit or the admin are going to buy in on big time football recruiting. Hopefully we get someone who is at least a better coach and developer of talent. But not having a recruiting mindset I think will limit the ceiling of this program.
He hasn't been fired midseason so he's definitely not getting fired until after 12/15? That's a leap.
There's three options:
1) Fire him midseason, which leaves you with an interim coach and questionable benefits
2) fire him at the end of the season, Sun or Mon after the UVA game and pay the full buyout. This is when the majority of coaching terminations happen.
3) wait until 12/16, buyout drops to $7.5 mil, save $2.5 mil
Just because #1 didn't happen doesn't indicate that you'll skip straight to 3 as if 2 isn't even an option. I find that utterly ridiculous.
He should have been fired last year. The fact he wasn't tells me Whit is very conservative. That makes me think he'll wait til December 16th. That was my point. I think best case is he is fired immediately after the uva game. Though I do see value to firing him mid season. Especially if he loses a couple more and bowl eligibility is out of reach. What I want to happen, what I think should happen and what I think will happen are all different.
I wanted him fired last week.
I think he should be fired on November 27th.
I think he will be fired December 16th.
I also realize there's a real possibility he's retained.
I'm growing increasingly scared that we're going to fall into a cycle where Whit never fires him until the buyout drops because he refuses to fire in-season but also never has a suitable replacement available because they're all gone at that point. That's clearly the game he played last year and there's no reason to think this year will go any differently if he waits that long.
Except for the part where last season ended late enough to basically coincide with the buyout dropping, and 2020 was basically screwed up on all fronts and almost anything that happened or didn't happen during the year cannot reliably be used as examples of what might or might not happen in the future.
I don't buy either of y'alls pessimism. You're ignoring that last year was in the middle of a pandemic. You can't judge the choice as if it was a normal choice. I wanted him fired last year too, but retaining him during the absolute peak of Covid = Whit won't ever fire him is a HUGE leap.
Not firing him midseason also doesn't signal not firing him til 12/16. I want him fired yesterday, but if you look at midseason firings they're much more uncommon than this season has shown. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, but this year there have been more midseason firings than the past 4 years combined.
It's already been posted here...they were ready to pull the trigger on Fu last season, but Covid/weird season plus UVa win plus the desired candidate wasn't available. All were factors.
Tangently related with all of the Whit talk....
Justin Fuente was removed from the list of successful hires on Whit's Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whit_Babcock
And here's a previous version:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Whit_Babcock&oldid=964692882
given that any ol' Joe Shmo can edit wikipedia I wouldn't think much of this change. Somebody did it for the LOLs, probably. It is kinda funny, tbf
Somebody last week also edited Fu's page to say, "He is the head coach of Virginia Tech, for now."
Turns out anyone can edit Wikipedia.
I definitely think it had to be someone close to the program, Whit himself possibly. It had to be done on purpose, to give the fans and donors a sign. I think this is evidence that a change is imminent. /s
oh yeah, I just thought it was funny and also why this is a comment in a tangently related thread and not its own post
It would have been epic if they had struck through Fuente and put FTFY underneath.
I'll give you $5 if you go do it lol 😂
It appears that change was made on 15 December 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Whit_Babcock&diff=994476238&o...
So you trot out a lame duck coach for NLI day and all the marketing and social media advertising that goes with it? I just don't see that happening. That brand tarnishment is way more material than 2.5 mil. I think Whit is going to give Fuente the 2022 season as one last shot anyway.
I know there's a lot of rumors swirling around, this being one of them, but if Fuente is on the sideline come August 22, I'm going to have to ask for my donation back.
It's hard to imagine the molten lava TKP will become if that's the case.
I can think of one VERY SPECIFIC scenario where that happens. Fuente makes Corny an offensive analyst or something, takes over OC duties, we start scoring shit-tons of points (like at least 45 a game) through the end of the season, he lets Williams go and hires someone who is defensibly a great receivers coach, most likely gets a new RB coach (also with proven success), and hires an OC in the off-season with high SP+ rated offenses. Then if the Syracuse game was a defensive anomaly and that side of the ball improves, and we win out, including against a good opponent in a bowl, I could see letting Fuente stay and that is the ONLY way.
I don't see ANY of this happening, but if it did, I think I'd be open to keeping him for another season.
If they retain him again (and TBH I wouldn't put it outside of the realm of possibility), I think a lot of the fan base will permanently check out. Myself included.
Like I said, it has to be that type of scenario, which is incredibly unlikely. And you say that now, but if we start crushing opponents the rest of the year, everyone would get excited about that. And if he started next season off the same way and genuinely turned things around, you'd check right back in. Since I'm on the INCREDIBLY unlikely scenario train, what if he made those staffing changes, went undefeated next year, won in the first round of the playoffs and lost in the National Championship game by a field goal? You're honestly saying the fan base would remain permanently checked out? Bullshit. I don't think anybody is really, truly anti-Fuente - we're anti-losing - if he made the changes we've been saying he should make for the past couple years and starts winning a lot, like at least 10 games a season, people would get back on board with him. But, like I said, it's incredibly unlikely - I predict he doesn't make any of those changes and we get a new coach sometime in December - probably after the 16th.
Winning a few more games this year and shuffling things up is equivalent to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The overall direction of the program is poor and not improving. If we are content with playing middling football at best, then I'd say mission accomplished. But that should never be the goal for our program. Fuente is just not going to get it done here and I think honestly wants to leave.
Just reading the chatter on potential coaching candidates and trying to rank the possibilities, I'm really having trouble seeing who we could honestly and realistically bring in who would move the needle, especially wrt recruiting. Fickell isn't happening, I don't think we can afford Dan Mullen, and Napier seems to be the most solid of all but still some questions. Everyone else is pretty much either a reach or outside of the realm of possibility. I think we either retain Fu again (unlikely and would be damning for the program, but I won't say impossible) or hire Dave Clawson (great coach but likely low recruiting ceiling - would need to truly be a developmental program). That's really what I think we are looking at.
No matter what happens with Fuente, Corn needs to be fired. Not reassigned or demoted, he needs to be gone from this program.
I would be fine with this. Get him gone and see who JF can hire. If he/they can't right the ship by '24 when JF's contract is up, then we move along. Coaching hires goes in cycles and this wouldn't preclude us from getting a solid hire in '24.
Not saying this is the most desired outcome, but definitely not the worst.
I can't imagine that's the case, this season is already a complete dud and (assuming things continue to go the way they have) it's going to end a total disaster.
I have no confidence that we beat anyone else on the schedule outside of Duke (and I sure as hell wouldn't put any money on us winning that one), so you're looking at 4-8 with 2 wins over G5 teams, a win over a floundering Duke team and a win over UNC that no longer looks as great as it did Week 1.
There's lots of programs that fire their coaches after their bowl games. It isn't all that uncommon. Not sure about brand tarnishment being more than $2.5M. Any of that would have happened over the last 3 years, and most people are already assuming we're not going to win more than another game, maybe two.
Looking back the last few years, it doesn't seem that common. Most of the movement on the coaching carousel that occurs during or after bowl season is largely due to retirements, taking NFL jobs, misbehavior, or backfilling other vacancies.
2020 - 3 coaches fired after bowl season - Texas, Marshall, and Tennessee. However, Tennessee's was due to an investigation and violations.
2019 - the only coach I see fired after a bowl game was at Mississippi State. It's believed that they were ready to fire the coach after playing Ole Miss, but winning that game bought him another month.
2018 - The only coach I see fired during bowl season was at Houston.
2017 - RichRod got fired from Arizona on January 2 due to workplace misconduct allegations.
Take out the ones fired for misconduct, and that's four coaches over four years getting fired during/after bowl season.
Fair enough - I saw a lot of movement in January the past several years - looking at it more closely, it looks like that was probably a lot of resignations and hiring dominoes from firings in December.
My main point being that I don't buy into brand tarnishment. In all the hirings and firings things I've looked at, I don't recall seeing any hirings in October or November (well, before the last week of November). Schools aren't bringing in new coaches mid-season. And the only times I've seen mid season firings, there was always an interim coach named from that school. And that gets us into the question of who would take over. If it's JHam, who are we going to keep from the offensive staff, and if the answer is one or two people, who is going to do the coaching? Teams have bad seasons, we had Beamer so long we haven't had to go through a coaching change. The teams that don't have bad seasons are the ones who are consistently having top 10 recruiting classes and can pay top dollar to a new coach, who can hit the field running. But there are top programs that have had bad years. Michigan had a 3-9 year in 2008, a 5-7 year in 2009, and a 7-6 year in 2010, then a 7-6 year in 2013 and a 5-7 year in 2014. Oklahoma had a stretch of years between 1995 and 1998 where they didn't win any more than 5 games, including 3 win and 4 win seasons. Schools have bad years, we just had Beamer be so successful for so long we didn't have to live through it. But it absolutely doesn't mean a school's brand is tarnished when it happens.
Honestly, there is a part of Fuente that could be graceful and say "Hey, this didn't work out. I know you want to wait till Dec 16th. For the betterment of the program moving forward, let's agree at
$107.5/8 now and go our separate ways."Is there any reason to think that isn't possible? It's not like Whit has been a dick to Fuente. It would be a good "I'm sorry" parting gift to the college and its fans.
He could agree to any number. Assuming he realizes that he's likely to be let go, he and Whit could agree to let him announce his resignation early, and get paid whatever amount - Fuente could agree to $7.5M earlier than the 16th, Whit could give him a little more (more than $7.5, but less than $10) if he's willing to announce earlier. Could let schools know Fuente is definitely available and let us announce a new coach earlier. If they do that, my guess is that the agreement would be Fuente announcing resignation, but would continue coaching through the UVA game.
Basic point - doesn't matter what is in the contract, if both parties agree to a change in terms, they can change it.
I think you mean agree to 7.5 now and go our separate ways.
Yes, sorry, mixing up my numbers.
If I were Whit, I'd agree to a buyout of $937,500 on the spot!
Wow, had not thought of this... Yikes. Only option is that there is a strange silence on NLI and we'll know for sure Fu is cooked
If the difference in price for the buyout is really that big a deal, just pass the collection plate around at the next home game.Make sure you get the band playing some feel good music, get the people swaying and you'll have that fund filled up in no time
where on earth are 7 people going to come up with $2.5 million?
/s
One guy just gave Wake 20 million for their next football complex update (that's over 100 million in last 10 years or so)
My cousin and I were discussing $$$ last night and he said he read a stat that in 2021, six thousand more Americans become millionaires every day. Hopefully some of them are Hokies.
where did he read that stat? I have lots of questions about that.
How are they defining millionaires? Is it based on net worth? Does inflation have anything to do with it? 6000/day is a lot - that would be on pace for over 2 million new millionaires in just one year. That is astounding.
and how many people fall out of the "millionaire class" every year. Just because you get into a millionaire status doesn't mean you keep it.
My guess is this is based on net worth, taking into account retirement accounts and such and as pointed out below a number probably fall out then jump back in, a million in retirement accounts isn't too terribly hard to achieve over 40 years, a million in cash on hand is incredibly hard to achieve
I have a little over $1M in my retirement after 20 years.
And if they are using the broadest measure of it - total household net worth - then I can totally believe that number with no hesitation. I mean a family of 4 with mom and dad late 40s of early 50s, 2 kids and a dog has grandma move in after grandpa dies and you sum up everything they have to = $1,005,000 of total household net worth, all 5 of them are "millionaires" when grandma's net worth is included.
Not that hard to get to $1,000,000 of total household net worth (trust me on that) and when you hit it, you are far from rich (trust me on that one too).
25 year old puts away $5500, or 10% of us median income each year will have 1.4 mil at 7% return at age 67.
Getting a million cash in had is only 22lbs so not thay difficult. Maybe go to multiple banks to get than many bennies.
The problem is that it's very difficult to convince a 25 year old to do that.
But if one does, they're very glad they did by the time they turn 55.
If you do it day 1, it just feels like another deduction (like taxes,insurance or social security) and you don't really miss it.
You're preaching to the choir, my brother.
I'm a believer, and sadly closer to the retirement end than the recent grad end. Though quite happy to have practiced what you're preaching.
Yep, me too. I had to wait 1 year before I could start but I sucked it up. Granted, I didn't have nearly as much financial stress then as young people today.
That first year was tough, my company didn't match so I just put some in a Roth. But switched jobs after a year started putting in as much as I could. I was lucky my parents and grandparents helped me save up for college so no debt coming out.
Not sure where he read it. We were drinking and I didn't ask the hard questions, but he's no dummy to go spitting out garbage. I agree it's a lot. With the dollar inflation, that is surely making some people millionaires that were on the cusp.
Millionaire isn't what it used to be, particularly in taxable retirement accounts and 2021 dollars.
If that includes retirement accounts, it doesn't necessarily mean a lot in terms of current financial fluidity.
QCDs for the win!*
*After your 70 1/2
We can speculate but this is a state job and once chosen will take time to be approved therefore waiting may not be an option if VT wants to keep recruits.
I'm willing to bet that the next coach (or even the next contract in the unlikely event Fuente is retained and manages to turn things around and have a decades-long stint in Blacksburg) won't have such a late buyout date.
For reference, Bronco's buyout date is December 4. That date consistently hovers during the week around the ACCCG (actually being the date of the game this year).
That makes a lot more sense.