Yes. We tried creating something that doesn't exist (a good P5 football coach out of Memphis). That didn't work. Maybe now we should start Engineering the Future, where we create something known that will be effective in a given situation. Like, say, a competent-to-outstanding P5 coach.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
There's no new information as of this post, but insiders keep saying stuff is happening and likely more telling, national level guys keep saying stuff like "expect the VT job to be available".
I count that as a win, fam.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I have no idea who fits behind the scene, but Mike Elko came from the Dave Clawson school, but has the blueblood experience of Notre Dame and Texas A&M. And, I think it is easier for Virginia Tech to sell having a great defense as the culture easier than being an explosive offense.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Elko is a name I've heard here and there but not en mass that I'm interested in. Wouldn't be my first pick but a name to keep in mind. Loose VA ties. No HC experience but a decent record and tree where he's been.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I saw a ton of comments in the other thread of people saying things like "so-and-so worries me" or "they wouldn't excite me".
In 2015, I was excited with the Fuente hire, as I think a lot of us were. The hit rate on coaches is very low. At this point, the only thing that is certain is that Fuente is not the right guy. I'd be happy to talk myself into nearly anyone who isn't a documented scumbag.
I thought Point #1 was very promising. Being devil's advocate, #2 seems a bit concerning if it pushes the "cut ties" moment to the middle of the season. That "three years and move on" mentality that has put some once-prominent schools into stagnation could compress even further and destabilize at a faster rate.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
That "three years and move on" mentality that has put some once-prominent schools into stagnation could compress even further and destabilize at a faster rate.
I can't find the exact stat, but I think Bob Stoops was the last P5 assistant to win his first conference title more than 3 years after being at the program. After year 3 you typically know what you have.
Why stay in a relationship with someone you know you don't want to be with?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
3 is certainly a weigh station to take stock of what you have, but not every situation is the same. That's where I think the AD makes their money- more so than the initial hire.
To quote the great Kenneth Rogers: You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
did you read the article? There were several things that might be concerning, but the biggest, IMO is the idea that ADs have to move quickly to lock up good coaching candidates because, this year in particular, there are going to be a lot of big jobs coming open (jobs much more desirable than VT) and it's going to be slim pickin's. If Whit waits until December 16th to make a move, there may not be anybody available. That is a huge, f-ing, concern.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
prime ACC job is like Manager at Applebees. The ACC is a bit of a joke, especially with Clemson falling off lately.
But the point isn't that the job will be available. The point is that the job will come available late (Dec. 16th) and there won't be any good coaches left on the market. That is the concern.
If Whit surprises me and fires Fuente on Nov 27th and gets VT on the market while there are still some hot names out there who would be interested, I'll feel better about our prospects. But if we're waiting until December 16th to make moves I'm very concerned what that will mean for VT. After last year, how can any potential candidates trust that the job will be available for them? Good, smart coaches are going to want to get hired and rolling sooner rather than later. Waiting until after early signing day is not going to be enticing to the best candidates.
I really worry that waiting until the buyout drops will turn out to be a big mistake. The potential hidden costs associated with not acting quickly could dwarf the 2.5 million we might "save" by waiting for the drop. I really hope Whit doesn't fumble the bag again. I'm willing to bet that the reason he didn't fire Fuente last year, when he really wanted to, had a lot to do with waiting for the drop. If he had acted more quickly, he might have gotten his guy locked up in time. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake this time around.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I read the article a different way. And maybe because the wife is watching moneyball, but if we want a hot name then you might need to rethink things. Lots of the guys in the article weren't hot names. Sam Pittman, Dabo Swiney, Shane Beamer, the guy at TTU were mostly unknowns. The times are changing. In the AP era coaches last at a school less that 4 seasons. Following the traditional approach you are more likely to fail when hiring a coach than succeed.
If by following the traditional methods lead to failure, then why is everyone following them? A hot coach is a safe hire, but not necessarily a good coach. If your not hiring the next hot coach then waiting doesn't matter. Look at Arkansas, Sam Pittman is 59 years old, he was no where close to a hot coach, he was pretty obscure, yet lots of people are excited for bowl eligibility.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
The point is that the job will come available late (Dec. 16th) and there won't be any good coaches left on the market. That is the concern.
I don't put any stock in this being a real concern. The programs in the worst shape are the programs with less money (ie, G5 schools). Not the schools who fire their coaches later. It would be a great concern to have to fire a coach suddenly and as a complete surprise; that's a real disadvantage as far as putting yourself behind schedule to land your next coach. But if Fuente's departure is even a possibility at the end of the season, wheels are already turning for getting the next coach to Blacksburg.
If a coach wanted to bite on an early offer from UMass, they still have their agent preventing them from leaving bigger money on the table. The only reason for any potential coach to sign early at UMass is a lack of interest from other schools with openings. Whit probably doesn't even have to do anything other than answer his phone- their agent will be calling around and finding out where they stand before they sign anywhere.
Timing does not prevent LSU or USC from big-dogging us.
And it won't prevent us from big-dogging Akron, either.
The Manny Diaz' Temple-to-Miami jump is sort of like that Great White vs Orca documentary that shows up every year on shark week. Fascinating to see when something like that happens. But rare as hell because Apex predators respect the hell out of each other and generally stay out of each other's way.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Let's not forget how underwhelmed people were with the Mike Young hire. And that was for a basketball program with lower expectations, the consensus seemed to be that Whit aimed low and made a disappointing hire. Often what excites fans doesn't make for a great hire.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
It's a good article, but I don't really find it alarming.
In fact, I find this a bit relevant:
Instead, the new buzzword in coaching is emotional intelligence: Somebody who can connect, encourage, discipline and cajole without being considered phony, authoritarian or soft. In the era of players earning money off their name, image and likeness and being able to transfer more freely, there is no offensive scheme good enough to overcome poor management of egos and expectations for players who are part of Generation Z.
It's a Brave New World, and VT is a decent destination for both coaches and players.
I'm looking forward to see what Whit draws up this time.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Napier and Huff seem to make the most sense to me. Chadwell has a really high octane offense and has built a great program down at Coastal, but the lack of P5 experience concerns me. Does he have what it takes to run a P5 program and elevate VT's recruiting? I'm sure Whit will do his homework. We don't want to get into another Fuente situation, but if Chadwell can get it done and isn't a Fuente clone, I'm onboard.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Fuente's biggest failure, IMO, is his stubborn unwillingness to part ways with underperforming staff. If Whit can get buy in from whoever the next coach is to give his staff honest evaluations and hold them accountable (and, if necessary, fire them) that will be a step up from Fuente no matter what.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I agree, not moving on from Stiney sooner I believe is the mistake that capped the ceiling of VT's best teams in the 00's. But Beamer was also good at recruiting (finding undervalued recruits that blue bloods had overlooked anyways), implemented innovative special teams techniques, and had an elite defensive coordinator. Fuente currently has none of those advantages nor would I necessarily expect our new hire to either.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Agreed. If Fuente actually performed on the field more, I think the recruiting would have been better. He had the interest and ears of some really good players but at the end of the day those guys don't want to be on a 6-6 team.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I don't think his system is shitty, actually. The plays are there within the structure of the system. What's shitty is that he can't coach his QBs out of a wet paper bag and the play calling doesn't take advantage of the system's structure. He completely abandons entire chapters of the playbook for long stretches and that inhibits the rest of the offense. The system can work beautifully if you mix up play calls to force the defense to defend the entire field (which the system avails) but he doesn't do that. On top of poor play calling, the player development has been completely non-existent. I don't think I can name a single offensive player who has looked better in year X than they looked in year 1. We've actually done a fair job of bringing in capable athletes (perhaps not elite, but capable) but after 4 years they still look and play like freshman. We might as well be playing with zero upper classmen. There is serviceable talent on this team (Thomas, Turner, Robinson, Payoute, Deluliis, Mitchel, etc.). Hooker and QP are certainly very talented and they've been thriving in different situations.
I'll give you roster management. That is another huge issue. That, coupled with the inability to develop the players we do have, makes it difficult to field a competitive team. Ultimately, the job that Cornelsen has - bringing in talent, developing talent, devising game plans, preparing the team to execute those plans, string together sensible play calls that complement each other, make adjustments during the game, etc. - he just doesn't do. He doesn't do a single one of these tasks with any kind of proficiency.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Player development:
I think Blackshear looks better this year than last year. I think a lot of the O line has continually developed. I think we saw Cam develop. I think Holston has gotten a little better than he was even though its still not the level we need.
Play calling:
I personally consider this part of the system. But if you want to separate them sure. I don't see the difference between having plays and not calling them. I do not like how we have no passing routes in the middle third of the field. I don't like running into the boundary as much as we do. I don't like what appears to be designed hand offs dressed up as read options. I don't like how slow we run plays. I haaaate our wr screen game, way too slow.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Getting and retaining better players would probably be a whole lot easier for him if he had competent coaches 🤷♂️
Having a much better coaching staff working for him would go a looong long way towards fixing several of our other ails too
Hooker is a good example of a talented player who under achieved in Blacksburg because of bad coaching. Once he got out, he blossomed. You're never going to convince me that if we just had better players we'd be markedly better.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Did you see the video of Frank down there in Columbia with Shane? He looked genuinely happy and genuinely old. Don't mess with Frank's retirement, he's earned these golden moments many times over.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think you bring up a good point. Everyone thought FU and T.Herman where the greatest thing since sliced bread-hottest coaches on the market but we all found ourselves wondering why they could'nt succeed at their new program. I think they had a really good team around them at their previous program and it made them successful. So maybe we should put more effort-money into assistant coaches and less in a head coach. I believe both FU and TH can coach but they have to have the right people around them to be successful as most coaches do. Look at Georgia. Kirby did a good job running the program and they won a lot of games but never the big one. Bring in WM and now they look unbeatable and they will probably win the national title. Even Saban is suffering this year from loosing assistant coaches and BAMA now looks beatable. I think we need assistant coaches who can recruit and just as important coach up their positions. I'm hoping Whit can find the answer but until then......Let's go Hokies!
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
If you're into reading tea leaves, there is a post from a very high level (BOV) individual on another forum. Takeaways could be:
If you're expecting a mid season firing... don't.
A linked article in the post seems to say things are trending away from every offensive wunderkind who has the next great system. Expect them to be looking for someone engaging, focused on the players. The fact that he chose to share that particular article would indicate that feeling is shared by at least some portion of the BOV.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think this is the article for those interested. I am happy to hear that ADs are apparently moving away from focusing on OCs for the next great head whistle. I hope this might help bring some variety and parody parity to college ball. I think having a players' coach and someone personable would greatly help with program relations at Tech, but also couldn't hurt with the shift we're going to see caused by NIL deals.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I too saw this article/post and thought it was interesting. Would lead me to believe we are heading toward a CEO type hire who can build relationships and effectively sell the program to donors and recruits. I think we take a total 180 degree approach from Fu with this hire. This would also likely entail some strong coordinator and staff hires as well. Definitely has me hopeful and interested to see which direction this goes. Likely makes me think people like Chadwell or other offensive guru types won't be considered.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
He is clearly insinuating a new coach will be coming to VT. So, that should, for now at least, keep us off the ledge of Fuente staying.
Does not specifically say the candidate they are targeting, but it's obvious based on the hints dropped that it's either Chadwell or Huff. There's some stirring going on about Chadwell interviewing with Babcock already.
I'll have the Marshall game on while the Duke game is on. They are 6-3 now. Bad loss to MTSU, but some solid wins since then. Huff has a long history of not staying very long at one place, typical for position coaches, and might even stay put at Marshall for another year to show he can do it.
Key information in that thread: spending money for future staff is available. Sounds like the buyout is the issue, so we patiently wait until Dec 16th.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Does not specifically say the candidate they are targeting, but it's obvious based on the hints dropped that it's either Chadwell or Huff. There's some stirring going on about Chadwell interviewing with Babcock already
If you're basing hints strictly off the article posted, what makes you believe its strongly hinting at Chadwell? Because while he may check the box of connecting to players like the article mentioned, he also fits the description the article mentioned of guys teams are going the other way against (ie offensive genius type, system, may be tied to a specific QB, etc).
Now it very well be Chadwell based off other rumors, but I'm just saying if you strictly go off the article, I'd say Huff and Napier fit the description better than Chadwell
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I was referencing the poster on the other site, and the hints he dropped in that thread. The article is generic, but it's the direction our AD and the BOV are going.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Yeah, I was too. And unless he's dropped other hints behind a paywall, I took it that the article he posted was intended to be the hint at the direction the administration was leaning. And if that's the case, that would point more to Huff or Napier imo than it would Chadwell.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Lets be honest here: When Fuente was hired he was the hot coach of that cycle.
Hot coach is not equivalent with good, smart coach (unless we are bio-hacking a Weird Science coach).
Waiting till the buyout drops might mean not getting a hot coach, but it might be possible (maybe not probable) to get the right coach.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
The only strong opinion I have is that waiting til the buyout drops is a horrible idea. Waiting puts you behind the ball getting your new coach and it also gives that coach zero days to convince incoming recruits to stick around. If you want to make a move get the money and do it. If your AD can't raise a couple million in an afternoon of phone calls for something as important as the football coach, not sure they should have a job either.
Ultimately we should know the situation the Monday after the UVA game. If Fuente is still in his office, emotionally prepare yourself for 2022-23 with him as coach
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
you're paying the $10m either way whether you wait til mid december or not. the difference is $2.5m and that's what's being talked about (and you know it)
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
it's a stupid point. EVERYONE knows that the buyout is currently 10 million and it drops by....wait for it...2.5 million... on December 16th.
The assumption is that Fuente is being fired this year and all the debate over the 2.5 million has everything to do with the timing (before or after buyout drop date)
At this point, your constant reminders that the buyout is not 2.5 is noise. Everyone knows this. Read the room. Understand the nuance.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
what is the point of beating the wElL AcTUalLy drum by bringing the conversation to absolute cost when it's clear the discussion was centered around relative cost of firing now vs firing in december when the buyout drops. The difference in the buyouts now vs later is $2.5m -- that's where the "couple million" comes from.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
nobody's bristling over anything, just pointing out that your consistent attempts to reframe the parameters of the decision discussion are tired, especially when it comes off as a condescending correction instead of an actual contribution to the discussion. we know the buyout is $10m in december, what's being talked about is whether or not paying the "couple million" difference represents value.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Either the $10m Fuente is due in December is a sunk cost and irrelevant to the discussion of whether you fire him now or wait til December, or Fuente is back next year. There's not much in-between nuance there.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
T-2. MIKE ELKO, TEXAS A&M DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Defensive coordinator Mike Elko is doing something Texas A&M fans haven't seen in this century and it's not getting enough attention.
Georgia isn't the only team playing once-in-a-generation defense this season in the SEC. Texas A&M is not as great as those Iron Dawgs, but the Aggies have cobbled the program's best defensive performances since 1995, when the program's vaunted Wrecking Crew allowed only 14 points per game in the old Southwest Conference. Texas A&M enters the final three weeks of the season ranked second nationally behind Georgia, allowing only 14.7 points per game.
Elko was previously under consideration for jobs at Temple and Kansas, but he declined opportunities to interview. If he's waiting for a bigger job, that might come in December.
"Super competitive, super smart," one coach told 247Sports. "He'll be a great CEO but he also gets it in recruiting and can scheme anyone."
The Aggies' defense has improved every season under Elko. They jumped 40 spots nationally in scoring defense in his first season before climbing into the top 40 in 2019 and into the top 10 in total defense in 2020.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Elko would be another very intriguing hire. The post/article suggesting we may go with a CEO-type hire makes me think that coordinators aren't necessarily off the table for the HC position.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the buyout drops Dec 16, and early signing day is Dec 15 correct?
IMO that is why Fu needs to be fired sooner rather than later. Granted, the incoming class has the same info we do, and should be aware of the instability of Fu's position... but to let kids sign one day and fire the coach the next day is dirty.
If I'm a recruit and Fu is employed Dec 15, I ain't signing shit.
Get our new guy in place ahead of time.
Edit: just to be clear, my point in the original post was not so much about salvaging the recruiting class, but more about not dicking over the players considering signing on ESD
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
By waiting til December 16th, you're volunteering to completely burn one recruiting class. You might get a few guys to declare for regular signing day and you better hope the new coach has some guys transfer in, but the bulk of recruiting is now complete with ESD. By waiting til it passes, you're basically forfeiting a recruiting cycle to save some money.
The long term losses by having a program trying to overcome that kind of self sabotage will very likely end up being far more expensive than the $2.5m we're saving right now by waiting.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm not sold it would burn an entire class but it would have to be done lightning quick with the firing and hiring being the same day, if that was the case, the students have till the 17th to sign their NLIs or could wait till the normal signing day.
We want a coach who is a better at recruiting than Fuente so if that's the case we would hope he would be able to hold onto those who are committed and have them sign on the normal signing day, additionally if these players are that committed to Fuente that they wouldn't want to play for a new coach it doesn't totally matter if we fire him on the 5th or 16th they aren't coming.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
At the end of the day, doing this would be a dick move to everyone involved.
You're asking Fuente to try and secure a class on ESD knowing he's not going to be our coach next year. You're going to have kids signing with us knowing you're about to fire the guy they are signing to play for. And you're basically causing the same situation to happen at whatever school you're getting our new coach from, especially if everything is lined up to happen same day.
Just an all around dick move to save a bit of money, and the only way it wouldn't completely blow up in our face is if it goes absolutely perfectly. And even then, we're going to be dealing with bad PR for the screwjob we would be putting anyone who signed on the 15th for either us or the school the new coach is coming from.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
TBH, I think Fu is fired right after the UVa game. I think they are going to give it the next three weeks to try and negotiate the buyout down, but if he won't budge (which I doubt he will), he's fired right after UVa. I don't think they will actually wait until the 16th. We may not name the new coach for another week or so after, depending on if they are still playing in a game, but I'm sure Whit would contact all of the class right after Nov 27 and let them know he has a good new coach coming and to stay onboard.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
For the record, I agree with you. Game is on Saturday and I think the announcement will be made by Monday at the latest. There's just too much short and long term risk in play by waiting til the 16th to make the move, especially given the timing of Early Signing Day.
Which, interestingly, the Fuente extension was signed before ESD was reinstated, but barely. Fuente signed his extension on April 3, 2017, and the NCAA Council voted to reinstate ESD on April 14, 2017. I always just assumed it was bad luck that the date of the buyout decrease happened during that ESD period, but given the timing here and the likelihood that Whit knew what the dates of ESD would be, it looks like that was intentional.
Which... Absolutely stupid on our part if it was.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
In all seriousness, I wonder if it's been offered to pay a certain sum of money lump sum if he will agree to "resign" right after the UVA game. Rather than VT officially terminating him and possibly paying the full buyout in installments. You have to think the former has some appeal if he wants to salvage his coaching career. But honestly he may just want to get out. I would rather have the money lump sum regardless though.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
But why would VT want to do the lump sum? It would cost less to pay out in installments, as future dollars are worth less than current dollars. Is it really worth having him resign vs terminating him?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm no lawyer, but why can't Whit announce Fu's gone on Dec 16 just after the UVa game, and announce Coach So and So has accepted the Head Whistle job once Fu leaves? Saves $2.5 mil and Whit can contact the recruits and say here's what we got. Even possibly have the new coach talk to them.
Again, I'm no lawyer.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
To be fair I don't think (or at the minimum would not advise) any student from signing on the first day of ESD if the coach's buyout drops the next day and is pretty widely known to be on the hot seat, my personal hope is he's fired after UVA and waiting till the 16th would not be good for our recruiting class but I don't think it would end the world
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Is anyone really salvaging the signing class between coaches, regardless of when the hire is announced? We announced Fuente (and Foster!) plenty early in 2015, and we still got a trash recruiting class.
Let's say a new coach comes in tomorrow. How is he going to create relationships with VA high school coaches, and actually convince kids to come to VT in 6 weeks? Best case scenario, this coach builds a top 40-50 recruiting class in 6 weeks.
Or, we wait until 12/16, and we get a top 50-70 recruiting class? Who cares? Wiscy has the 50th best recruiting class right now with one 4-star, ten 3-stars, and an average rating of 87.26. Coastal Carolina has the 63rd best class with 13 3-stars, and an average rating of 84.13. VT currently has the 20th best class with three 4-stars and 20 3-stars, with an average rating of 85.98.
Would love to see some actual data comparing coach firings/coach hirings to recruiting class quality.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Bud Elliot has been pretty adamant that the ESD timing in relation to new coach fire/hire timing has hindered the start of quite a few coaching stints. I think if you reached out to him he could give you some hard data on it, though it's not hard to find multiple examples of coach's first classes being pretty bad, some at the time of signing, some when you go back and look at the attrition numbers and hit rate, some both.
Our 2016 class was a drop off at the time (42nd, .8485 avg rating), but we actually managed to get quite a few contributors out of that class:
Starters: Jerod Evans, Deablo, Reggie Floyd, Emmanuel Belmar, Jarrod Hewitt, Silas Dzansi (prepped and joined next class, so this is iffy on which to qualify as)
Players who were good, but didn't ultimately play for us: Tavante Beckett
Getting notable contributions from 11/22 players isn't bad for a transition class, but multiple of those contributors ended up transferring out which is a negative commonly seen in these first classes, and it's hard to count Beckett as a recruiting win even though he ended up being a good player at Marshall.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Starters: Jerod Evans, Deablo, Reggie Floyd, Emmanuel Belmar, Jarrod Hewitt, Silas Dzansi (prepped and joined next class, so this is iffy on which to qualify as)
Players who were good, but didn't ultimately play for us: Tavante Beckett
It's tough to look at the 2016 class because (1) early signing day wasn't a thing then, (2) the transfer portal wasn't a thing then, and (3) a lot of the defensive staff remained in tact. Of the 6 starters, 4 were defensive players (presumably their position coach was returning). Jerod was a late edition who Fuente was already recruiting before he arrived at VT. Dzansi committed to VT really late.
Fuente (& staff) clearly recruited the latter two players, but couldn't a new coach just go into the transfer portal?
Edit:
Bud Elliot has been pretty adamant that the ESD timing in relation to new coach fire/hire timing has hindered the start of quite a few coaching stints. I think if you reached out to him he could give you some hard data on it, though it's not hard to find multiple examples of coach's first classes being pretty bad, some at the time of signing, some when you go back and look at the attrition numbers and hit rate, some both.
So I asked Bud:
Might actually be an inverse relationship. Due to the strong likelihood that the class you sign with just a few scant weeks to put it together will suck, hiring a coach super late might keep him from using too many scholarships on a wasted endeavor. https://t.co/H5V6T9RCTe— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) November 11, 2021
Basically - Bud thinks the coach should take an L on his first class, and throw the leftover schollies to the transfer portal and future class's recruits.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think the transfer portal is almost necessary for any new coach given the recent attrition trends and ESD.
What Mel Tucket brought in via the portal this past offseason is insane. Tons of high quality starters like Walker, Ronald Williams, Quavaris Crouch, among many others. There was a great article in the Athletic about it.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think I may have misunderstood your initial point. I was moreso just talking about ESD causing first classes to suck, which we all agree with, and now I think we're all in even more agreement that it's best to use the portal, particularly in the first two years to make up for the first class sucking.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Oh yea, for sure, ESD ruins every coaches first class. Which is why I don't understand why it matters if we announce a new hire on 11/15, or 12/2, or 12/16.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Going back 5 years, there are ~24 coaching changes each season. That's about 20% of all coaching jobs, each and every year. (Okay, so some of this is poaching, but firings aren't exactly shocking in this business).
Do 15-20 recruiting classes really evaporate into the wind or tank every cycle?
I can gather why we'd be freaking out about this- many Hokie fans have only ever seen one coaching change over the course of their lives (and it was an astonishingly rare retirement!)
But is this really anything to fret, or is this a pretty normal and predictable occurrence we're talking about with the head coach of an FBS program probably not coming back next season?
I'm pretty insistent on this point, and I'll say it again. Football recruits make commitments to Universities. A head coach is just another perk of the University.
Right now, we have 24 commitments. And the time to decommit would be now- there are currently about half of the FBS recruits committed (and about 65% of the spots in the Power 5 are taken. Possibly less- there should be ~2900 FBS commits this season, but given the scholarship numbers from COVID, probably going to be a little short this year.)
Are we starting to see an impending wave of decommitments?
I'd argue that we should be feeling pretty down if we had a TINY class right now- that's saying these kids, their parents and their coaches don't think really highly of this University and doubt we'll be able to make a good coaching hire right now.
All of 2021, the decision to play for Virginia Tech next season HAD to have been made knowing the coach was on the hot seat. And we've been pretty consistent at playing disappointing football for a couple of seasons now.
I think these kids, their parents, and coaches are just betting on Virginia Tech.
Hiring a Paul Johnson to run the triple option- yeah, you're probably going to see some kids turn. And run. If that shit happens.
But with all of the bad feelings surrounding our favorite program (not winning football games. Not Scrooge McDuckin' around in Alabama money)... We're no slouch.
Whit's probably letting go of Fuente at the end of the season. There's probably going to be a new coach. And he's probably going to be pretty highly regarded, too.
I'm betting that was already baked into the decision-making process with most of these kids.
Having one of our better seasons on the recruiting trail on Fuente's (probable and likely) last season might just somehow not be a glowing review of Justin Fuente.
These aren't commitments to Justin Fuente. I'm not sure how a fanbase so unanimously opposed to a man sticking around could honestly believe that all of these recruits just love, love, love the same exact fella and just wouldn't want to play for anybody else.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Not to mention, of all the years to try and be a last second free agent, this might be the scariest with the number of portal players from covid. It's going to be a blood bath of kids getting processed at the end of the season across the P5.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
While I greatly appreciate the work that into that post (seriously, well written and presented), I'd like to remind people that we have experience with commitments being bullshit until a signature is inked on the NLI.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I assume everybody is aware of this, as I don't address it at all here. Some commitments are more certain than others, some kids have options and some don't. Nothing is certain until ink hits paper.
My intention in writing this wasn't to try and claim we won't have any decommitments. They should be expected each and every year.
There's a confusing and counterintuitive relationship between football recruits, coaches and programs.
I'm trying to point out how this works over scale (the best recruits are actually attracted to the best programs), rather than the intuitive assumption (recruits SHOULD be attracted to individual coaches).
If 20% of coaches change each season, that would mean the average coaching tenure is 5 seasons. If you're a recruit, somebody likely points this out to you.
"I like college x's coach the most"
"He probably won't be there when you graduate. Which school/program do you prefer?"
Whether the recruits know this themselves, or a friend/coach/mentor/parent presents it to them, this is (over scale), how these decisions are being made.
And over time, the same schools attract the same level of recruits, over and over. When coaches change jobs, their "recruiting numbers" fall in line (with very few exceptions) with how the school had "recruited" before, and will "recruit" after.
Some notable exceptions: GT ran the NFL-irrelevant triple option offense (scores dropped a little). Ole Miss was paying players (scores rose a little). UNC faced heavy sanctions (scores dropped a little).
In each of these cases, a "coach" may appear to be the reason for the scores changing. But when that program-wide deviation went away, the scores essentially return to what they were before.
It would appear that the relatively short tenure of coaches are likely minimizing their significance when football recruits pick their programs. And this would seem counter-intuitive.
Fuente getting fired definitely affects the players on our team, certainly on an emotional level. But the kids who have never played for him? Unlikely.
TL;DR - coach Fuente leaving is probably not effecting our recruiting much this season (and whether it's a slight positive or negative isn't clear). "Precisely when" definitely isn't going to matter in how the 2022 class works out.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I want someone who will bring an on-field identity to the team. I don't care what it is, I just think we would benefit from that, like the BeamerBall identity from back in the day. We could be a RB factory with road graders on the O-Line, an Air Raid attack, even a weird defense like a ballhawking 3-3-5 and call ourselves V-INT or something.
The fanbase will 100% get on board with an identity and it's a better way for us to compete than having a strategy that amounts to "recruit good players and be good at football" or whatever the hell CornFu thought they were doing. That works for Saban, and we might get back to that level, but the clearest path to getting a consistent winner back in action is to have an identity and build from that.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
It requires identity and player development. Everyone is harping on recruiting, which is of course one major important component of cfb, but the player development under this staff has been poor. A clear identity with a coach who can identify and recruit a player and consistently develop a better player that leaves the school than who enters it is a big key for me.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I have nothing to offer, but Whit, if you interview someone and they are not overtly enthusiastic about their intention to recruit and recruit well, move on to the next one.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
So I'll throw in a name that a few people mentioned last year including myself.
Bill Clark from UAB.
UAB eliminated its football program for two years, and when it was reinstated, Clark had to re- build the entire program up from scratch. He has a fantastic staff including a DC, David Reeves who has had several top 10 defenses over the past few years and is known for being aggressive. He hasn't had a losing season since taking over in 2014 and I think this is a pretty fair body of work that shows he can win and can build a program and develop talent. He's defensive minded and likes to run the ball, which is a VT culture fit.
I think the questions are whether he can recruit or not. He might not be the best option available but I wouldn't rule him out of consideration or the interview.
Good opportunity to watch and compare coaching this weekend when they take on Marshall.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Bill O'Brien, Venables, Mullen, or Freeze. Anyone else and I won't be super excited. Clawson, I could get behind as well but certainly wouldn't be as exciting
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Idk I think we're more in on a couple of names than most people have seen at this point. Venables being the least possible currently, however, if there is a year to get Venables now is the time, or it will never happen.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Add to that My toddlers have more self control than Venables (unless his sideline spazmotics are just a show for the troops). Do you really want someone like that running your program?
I wouldn't.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
No on Mullen and Freeze. Mullen's time at UF has made me really not like that guy. He may be a good coach overall but he doesn't seem like the solution for us. Just my observation though.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Can't downvote opinions but I want to haha (joking joking!). Not sure I understand the love for O'Brien I've seen on the boards here, he did a decent job at Penn state for his short stint, but seems like a blah personality who might find himself without a job this year, Don't think he has many folks excited with what he's done with the offense at Alabama this year
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think the hype for him is he has a lot of experience as a HC, he brought PSU out of a dark time, has coached in the NFL. He doesn't need to run the offense as HC, but he has the background to find the right staff to put around him.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
The Alabama offense is still one of the best in the nation, with a worse OL, and the weakest WR/RB options they've had in years, but yeah there are some legitimate criticisms about things he's done with their offense this year. Bryce Young has bailed him out of some shitty 1st/2nd down play calling sequences by throwing darts on third and long.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Head coaching success is a crap shoot and is largely based around getting the right talent. Give me someone who can get VA talent to be proud to play for VA's premier college football program. The wins will follow.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Crootin is a big part but there are other things successful teams do. They are usually very disciplined and consistent. They don't shoot themselves in the foot over and over and over like we do. Some of that is play calling, play design, being able to actually make adjustments through the game and season. Being able to show recruits evidence of putting their guys in the best situation to make plays is a huge benefit for recruiting.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Should have added /s to my earlier comment. Although if Bud wanted it, I wouldnt be opposed to it. Not that I think it would have a high chance of succeeding, but at this point I think coaching hires are a total crap shoot, and whos to say whats a good or bad hire?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
He seems to be enjoying life way too much to jump back into the grind after a few years away from it. The benefit I see of him being the HC, he has a defensive staff in place that he would be pretty happy with I imagine and he would go find a OC who can move the ball around. Then we are facing the situation of replacing a legend in the next decade again.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Looking at Whit's coach hiring history, He has never hired someone without Headcoaching experience:
School
Coach
Sport
Prior HC experience
Cincinatti
Tommy Tuberville
Football
17 years
Virginia Tech
Buzz Williams
Men's Basketball
6 years
Virginia Tech
Kenny Brooks
Women's Basketball
14 years
Virginia Tech
Mike Young
Men's Basketball
17 years
Virginia Tech
Tony Robie
Wrestling
7 years (prior to be an assistant at VT)
Virginia Tech
John Sung
Lacroose
5 Years
Virginia Tech
Sergio López Miró
Swin & Dive
3 Years
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente
Football
3 Years
I think we can probably rule out Elko, Freeman, Pry, Elliott, Venables, etc. Huff's one year of experience may also be too little for Whit.
My guess is Napier or Chadwell (based on Whit's past hiring decisions and internet rumors). Clawson and Healy both fits the bill, though I haven't heard any grumblings about either.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Not really? There were rumors about Buzz and Fuente before each was hired. They Fuente info was literally leaked/reported in the middle of a Memphis game that Fuente was coaching. Fuente and Whit were both quite unhappy about it.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Who knows. I remember hearing grumblings about Buzz and Fuente prior to VT hiring them (not dissimilar from what we're seeing now about Napier).
As an aside - Napier feels like a very Buzz-Williams-esk hire - Dude evaluates opportunities way different than other coaches. If he notices that he can't get a blueblood-level job from ULM, I could see him viewing VT as a stepping stone to a top 10 job.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I would be ok with Napier using us as a stepping stone. Because that means he would have righted the ship so to speak and set us up for a good hire after him... pretty much what Buzz/Brent did for CMY.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
If the choices are (a) another two years of Fu, (b) a high-floor, low-ceiling guy like Clawson, who is not likely to leave for greener pastures, or (c) someone like Napier who might leave in a couple years, I'll take my chances with (c). It would suck if he bolted after just a year or two, but I still feel like he'd leave us in a better place. We desperately need to get out of this mindset that we can only hire someone who we believe will be a lifer like CFB was.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm not convinced Clawson is a 'low-ceiling' guy. Last year, I would have agreed. This year though, he could realistically finish this season 12-1 at one of the most difficult P5 jobs in the country. That's not a low ceiling.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Yeah I know everyone keeps saying Clawson isn't a "sexy" hire, but I am such a Dave Clawson stan. I love that guy's whole approach to the game. I've heard it described as "moneyball" for college football. Clawson is a progressive-thinking coach. I honestly think he's a perfect fit for us.
You know, "Invent the Future" and all.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Listening to him on a pregame show last bowl season, he was extremely personable and well spoken and came across as legitimately smart without a bunch of BS coach speak. Sold me.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I call him a low-ceiling guy because he's a career .500 head coach and I believe that people are over-indexing on his 2021 results. Credit where it's due: he is having a fantastic year, and should win ACC CoY. But it's hard to say how much of that is due to the lingering impact from COVID (half of his starting defense are super seniors) or the fact that the Atlantic is significantly worse than usual, with Clemson, loserville, and F$U all down.
There's also the question of Wake's opponents during Clawson's tenure; here's the list, sorted by # of wins:
Take recency bias out of the equation and Clawson is a good coach with a solid philosophy. At VT, he'd probably average 8 wins. We would at least be in contention for the Coastal most years, and every now and then, with an especially senior-heavy team, we'd have a real shot at the ACC title and a NY6 bowl. None of that sucks, which is why I said he's a high-floor guy. But outside of this year, I haven't seen any indication that Clawson has more upside than that. He'd be a good, solid, safe pick.
My point was that, if if the choice were mine, I'd take a chance on a guy who I think has the potential to be great, not just good, even though it comes with more risk.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Maybe it's just me, but this reads as "i'm not convinced he's a high ceiling guy, because if you remove his ceiling from the discussion, all that's left to look at is the high floor"
I understand that there's probably a unique confluence of circumstances leading to Clawson's success this year, but isn't "ceiling" by definition supposed to look at the best possible results?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Fair enough; his 2021 results are real, and impressive. Perhaps it would be better to ask it this way: if Clawson became the head coach for VT, how frequently do you think he would deliver 10+ win seasons? If the answer is "not more than once or twice per decade", then IMO he's not the ideal hire.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Yeah, I agree with you there -- I think what we're all hoping for is to elevate the program. I'm not sure Whit/The Fanbase is willing to tolerate a high-risk high-reward hire (where we might see big competitive push but we also might see a year or two of 3-4 win seasons) rather than someone who can quickly raise the floor by 2-3 wins a year (8-9 wins in a "bad" year, instead of 5-6 like we've seen), always be a favorite for the Coastal, and be competitive in ACCCGs to break into NY6 bowls.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
You seem to be under the impression that he would recruit at Wake levels while at VT. Even a poor recruiting class at VT would be more talented than his average classes at Wake giving him a higher ceiling.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think he would recruit right around VT's historical averages most likely. With this hire, I think many are hoping to boost those averages rather than continue along as we have historically by not emphasizing recruiting. If VT wants to become a legit national power again in today's college football landscape, we are going to have to recruit better than we have historically. Jimmies and Joe's will win over X's and O's consistently at the college level. Clawson is a phenomenal coach no doubt, but I don't think he is the right fit to elevate the recruiting profile of the program.
In sum, we need to go from the program known for recruiting 2 and 3 stars with a few 4s here and there and punching above our weight class to the program that can actually land a large chunk of 4s and those occasional 5 star guys. Talented players want to play with other talented players, so we need to build our culture to fit that.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I think the point he was trying to make is if Clawson can win as many games as he has with recruiting classes ranked in the low 50s/high 60s, even if he recruited at Tech's average of 25, he could win a LOT more games with those recruits.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Counterpoint?: Clawson has achieved success mainly by redshirting and developing talent, and relying on experienced redshirt juniors/seniors. Let's say he does recruit at Tech's average of 25. With more higher-profile recruits, is he necessarily going to be able to convince most of them to redshirt their first year? It seems the higher-profile the recruit, the more they want to play right away.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I don't know what, if any, conclusions to draw from this data. One thing that jumps out is that other than the ~0.03 delta between us, there's a pretty similar ebb & flow between them. Both peaked in 2018/2019 and have fallen off a bit since then.
Is there anything there that convinces you that Clawson is going to elevate VT's recruiting?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Nothing that says elevate. The difference b/w WF & VT is more apparent in the ranking of the classes. I'd also like to see where WF ranked from 04-13 before Clawson (haven't had a chance to look myself.
Frank & Fuente weren't good recruiters. Fuente straight up burned bridges. Clawson has existing relationships in VA & NC. But look, even if he doesn't recruit above WF level, we'd still be contending for the Coastal every year, and even if we're only 8-4 it's the most entertaining 8-4 team you've ever seen.
If Clawson can recruit at VT average or slightly lower, 25-35, he's shown the ability to develop and win with low-level talent so it would suggest he could win even more here with that level talent.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
he's a career .500 head coach and I believe that people are over-indexing on his 2021 results
IMO, this is where trends and context matter:
At Wake Forest, Clawson's record has improved almost every season. He went from 3-9 his first two seasons, to 3 straight seasons with 7/8 wins, to a 9+ win season (yes, I'm ignoring the COVID season). I'm okay hiring a coach with a mediocre overall record if the season-to-season record trends upward.
Clawson has been at head coach at 4 different schools (Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green, Wake). At each school, his record started bad, and trended up.
Clawson has had at least one 10 win season and at least one conference champion at every school he's coached at (except Wake - but that is subject to change this season).
When Clawson arrived at Wake, he chose to redshirt a ton of players, including most of his younger linemen, so they could grow (physically and mentally), and actually be prepared to step on the field. By doing this, he sacrifice a couple wins up front, but doing that allowed him to (1) build culture and (2) develop players so he could be successful in later seasons.
We would at least be in contention for the Coastal most years, and every now and then, with an especially senior-heavy team, we'd have a real shot at the ACC title and a NY6 bowl.
I mean, this kind of looks like VT's ceiling over the past 20 years - ACC title appearance 3-4 times every 5 years, with a win every 5 years (at the rate Clemson is going), and maybe a playoff berth once every 10 years (maybe increase that frequency when the playoff expands). This is pretty in line with what Beamer accomplished, except he was able to dominated the ACC when Clemson and FSU were down. So, it feels like you think Clawson could give us Beamer level results?
What I'm saying is - Why can't Clawson be great? If he can win the ACC with the 65th most talented roster in the country, don't you think he could do better with the 40th best roster? What if he gets us back to being the ~25th best roster?
My biggest concerns with Clawson are (1) recruiting and (2) defense. Fortunately the right staff can help mitigate that risk.
I'm not saying Clawson is the best hire, but I do think he could get VT back to 2004-2010 levels.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
At Wake Forest, Clawson's record has improved almost every season.
Ignoring his first two years, they've gone 7-5, 8-6, 7-5, 8-6, 4-5, and 9-1 (currently). The question is whether 2021 is a one-time anomaly. I think it is, largely due to COVID and the Atlantic being worse than usual. If so, I'd say it's more accurate to say that he's plateaued at an average of around 8 wins per year. But we won't know until a year or two from now.
I'm not saying Clawson is the best hire, but I do think he could get VT back to 2004-2010 levels.
VT won 10 or 11 games every year during that stretch. Wake has yet to do that under Clawson (odds are good this year, obviously), and only two of his teams have ever reached the 10 win mark (Fordham in '02 and BGSU in '13). You're arguing that because he has excelled at doing more with less that he'll automatically perform at the highest levels any of his teams have ever achieved, on a consistent basis, simply because we have a marginal recruiting advantage over Wake? Sorry, but that's a bridge too far for me.
Why can't Clawson be great?
I'm not arguing that he cannot be great; there isn't some smoking gun or big red flag. But there's also nothing in his history that suggests that he will consistently achieve the level of performance you're suggesting (10+ wins every year). That seems to be dependent on him having a senior-laden group who have had 3+ years to develop. That, plus recruiting, are my two big concerns.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
only two of his teams have ever reached the 10 win mark (Fordham in '02 and BGSU in '13)
Nitpicking here, but 2007 Richmond was 11-3. Assuming he wins 10 games this year, He's built up every program he's coached at to at least a 10 win season.
You're arguing that because he has excelled at doing more with less that he'll automatically perform at the highest levels any of his teams have ever achieved, on a consistent basis, simply because we have a marginal recruiting advantage over Wake?
Essentially, yes. If he were to coach VT, he would be playing the same ACC competition (arguably easier competition since he'd dodge Clemson and FSU most years) as he would at Wake, but with better players. To me, that means one could expect a better record.
That said, I think our recruiting advantage over Wake is more than marginal - We've recruited like shit for 3 straight seasons now, and our roster is still 20 spots more talented than Wake's. Assuming Clawson could bring us back to a top 25 level (which, IMO is the biggest question mark for Clawson), I think it's fair to expect 10ish wins/year with Clawson.
FWIW, If he wasn't already playing an ACC schedule, I wouldn't have this opinion.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Baylor, Oklahoma, UGA, Cincinnati, Oh St, Arkansas, UTSA are all in the top 25 with coaches who were hired with no prior head coach experience.
Jimbo went from OC to head coach at a p5. Mario Cristobal was fired from FIU then was an assistant at 'bama before Oregon. Mel Tucker was dc before Colorado hired him and MSU gave him a "can't refuse" offer. Edit: Dabo obviously
I agree that whit values head coach experience, but I think that's an error. why couldn't Bret pry (PSU) or Dan Lanning (UGA) have success here? And if we're waiting to Dec 16, a playoff-bound coordinator is the only reasonable way I see to sell it to the fans
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
why couldn't Bret pry (PSU) or Dan Lanning (UGA) have success here?
Why couldn't Napier, Clawson, or Chadwell?
It's not about finding someone who could have success here, it's about finding the person you think is most likely to have success here. I agree that Pry could have success here, but I'm more confident that Napier/Clawson/Chadwell could (and actually would).
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm not saying they can't; I am saying it's foolish to eliminate a large portion of the talent pool. Based on available evidence, it's an error to say the HC at VT has to have prior head coach experience.
Napier is the only one of those you listed that I would be excited by due to his experience in P5 programs. I would also be interested in Jay Charles Huff for that reason.
Clawson I would be ok with but would have concerns
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
mannn TKP needs to get excited about Chadwell. If he comes here, we immediately become one of the 10 most fun teams to watch in CFB.
I am saying it's foolish to eliminate a large portion of the talent pool.
I don't disagree with this. And for what it's worth, Whit has hired people who were a head coach at school previously, then became an assistant elsewhere, then a head coach again at VT.
I'd be curious to see the stats on success of first time P5 coaches with head coaching experience vs those without it.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
at this point I think it's a philosophical difference of scheme vs structure/ceo in a head coach. clawson and chadwell are scheme guys to me. I personally think we need to focus on jimmies and joes then figure out the x's and o's for the level we want to be at
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I mean, if you want a proven CEO, then you definitely want someone with head coaching experience, and you want to stay away from coordinators.
Also - how can you say that Clawson/Chadwell aren't CEOs? Just because they run super creative offenses doesn't mean their not CEOs. Saban is one of the best Defensive schematic minds of all time, and he's a fine CEO. No one accuses Lincoln Riley of being too in the weeds. Not sure why creativity is being viewed as a negative for Clawson and Chadwell.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
then you definitely want someone with head coaching experience
1) I want someone who knows how to be successful at a top P5 program. Because that should be our aim. I listed multiple schools and coaches above that were able to hire someone without g5 head coach experience and are currently successful
Not sure why creativity is being viewed as a negative for Clawson and Chadwell
2) My point is: at the level VT wants to be at, we can't just out scheme everyone. We just tried the out-scheme bit for 6 years. Chadwell is probably one of the two best coaches in his conference, probably not the case in the acc. I said I would be ok with Clawson, however it took 6 years to get to 8 regular season wins and 8 years to get to 9.
3)honestly, this isn't that serious we're two internet strangers talking about who should get paid $3+ mil to coach football. not sure why you care that I disagree with literally one of the three names you listed. you seem to be ignoring literally all the evidence presented to argue that only Chadwell/Napier/Clawson would be good hires. I am telling you there's a decent chance it'll be ok if they're not!
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Whit needs to go P5 recruting/HC experience with this hire. Period. He tried the "offensive minded" G5 up and comer and it didn't work. We need a coach that knows what it takes to coach a p5 team with high expectations. We need a coach that can recruit. "Improved offense" should be down the list this time.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
1. He was the recruiting coordinator during Colorado's horrifying rape lawsuits around (alleged) sex parties for recruiters. He was never directly accused of anything, but that doesn't look great for a dude with his lengthy legal record from when he was younger. Lots of bad incidents including getting into a physical altercation with a female parking lot attendant and later being sentenced for getting into a physical altercation with some firefighters who were responding to a fire at his parents' house. (Can't lose Hokie Fireman, or yours truly, an ex-hose dragger.) Not a good vibe for the kind of clean program we want to have here.
2. He ran off the most important in-state recruit Colorado has had in the last twenty years, RB Marcus Houston. Bienemy's behavior was bad enough that NCAA granted him immediate eligibility to transfer to rival Colorado State and play right away due to "extenuating circumstances." Instead of a denial, CU's athletic director later said they were confident he had learned from his mistakes. Yikes.
3. Turned down the HC job at Colorado last year when they just offered it to him with no interview. If he isn't interested in taking the head job at his alma mater where he has gone back for two separate coaching stints, he isn't coming to VT. Some rumors out there have him going to USC, which makes sense. He's from SoCal, he played for the Chargers and coached at UCLA for a bit.
4. Has been super successful as an RB coach of some guys named *checks notes* Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. Has been fantastic coordinating an offense under Andy Reid with some guy named Patrick Mahomes at QB, Travis Kelce at TE and Tyreek Hill at WR. Unfortunately I don't see that talent level at VT right now.
Unless there's some totally off the radar candidate out there, I'm just starting to think it's going to be Clawson. Napier would be great but he's going to have his pick of open jobs. I also really like Huff but I doubt Whit will go with someone with so little HC experience. Coordinators are also likely far down the list. Chadwell or Clawson seem like Whit hires, but due to the P5 experience I can see it being Clawson. I think he's a fantastic coach, but I just don't know if he will be able to recruit to get us to a consistent ACC-championship level program. There were similar concerns about Fuente and they were kind of brushed off, like he would be able to recruit better just because of the VT name and more resources. No real info here just a hunch. It seems like a very safe hire for Whit.
Personally if Napier is off the table, I would get Huff for around $3.5-$4MM and use his coaching connections to hire the absolute best coordinators possible. Load up on a big name staff, also give Huff a very incentive-driven deal. Loads of upside and not a ton of financial commitment if it doesn't work out. I think Whit will view it as too much of a gamble.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
here's a theoretical staff
Head coach: Huff
OC: Holmon Wiggins
DC: Dales Jones (app st DC, should know the carolinas well. is from SWVA, went to school in TN)
Let's cook!
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Yes I think as many have pointed out he's a good developmental coach, like a better Cutcliffe, instilling their culture and making the most of what they have, but I don't think that is a recipe for winning at high level and I think the fact that after taking Wake to top 10 heights that he's not on any other prominent schools radar should be a red flag. I want a coach that other teams want. I want a coach that is going to wow us the fan base and more importantly the prospective kids that will come play for us. I think Clawson could be upgrade from Fuente, but I think it's likely a wash.
I don't think clawson has the amount of experience at top level programs necessary.
In industry there is a reason why companies value experience at world class companies. In accounting, experience at a Big4 firm is king. In Chemical engineering you have petroleum. Aerospace you have Boeing. CS you have your Silicon Valley social media companies.
Clawsons only big boy experience was half a season at Tennessee where he did very poorly.
247 has him listed as the primary recruiter for one player, an 87 rated three star QB while at Tennessee.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Athletic article by Andy Staples that put Chadwell at VT puts Clawson at USC. Cover 3 Pod they discussed him to PSU, don't remember if it was one from over the summer or from in season.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Yeah why would you turn down a job that picks your coordinators for you and then run the risk of one of those coordinators staging a coup to try to take your job?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I see your side of it, but here is where I disagree:
I think VT's recruiting ceiling is top 20ish. The school's best class ever was 18 overall. Historically, teams always recruit at about the same level +/- ~5 spots depending on recent trends. The only things that truly change a school's recruiting profile are (1) a large influx of cash (a la Oregon), (2) Switching Conferences (a la Texas A&M) or (3) Geographic Trends (a la Georgia). That said, I recognize that it does take the right coach to capitalize on any of things.
For this reason, I think VT needs to hire a coach/staff who can develop and recruit a top 25 class. I feel pretty confident that Clawson could do that.
247 has him listed as the primary recruiter for one player, an 87 rated three star QB while at Tennessee.
This is my #1 concern with Clawson - can he get VT recruiting at a top 25 level. I think he can with the right staff, but I agree, it's not a given.
In industry there is a reason why companies value experience at world class companies. In accounting, experience at a Big4 firm is king. In Chemical engineering you have petroleum. Aerospace you have Boeing. CS you have your Silicon Valley social media companies.
This is also something I disagree with - as someone who hires people (in tech), I would much rather hire someone who is making a lateral move from a small start up than someone who is looking to leave FAANG-M and make a vertical leap.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I'm fine with the 20th best class as long as the avg recruit ranking is in line and it's not inflated due to numbers. Any coach that can do that for us consistently and I will be ecstatic. Can't have rankings in the 70s or 90s or whatever Fuente gave us.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Exactly. Average recruit ranking is what we need to increase at VT. Fuente's last several classes have averaged around a .85 avg recruit ranking, which is about a low to mid three star average. This year's average puts us around 45-50 in the country. We are going to need to start winning more of these 4* battles and boosting that average to around 89-90 if we want to seriously compete on a national level. That requires much more emphasis and strategy on recruiting to win these big battles. A coach like Clawson who I think is a great coach would likely recruit to VT's historical average and try to leverage his X's and O's. That may mean a 7-8 win floor, but we aren't taking the program to the next level like that.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Everyone keeps bringing up Healy and his potential, but he's going to have to prove it first. .500 this season at Charlotte and losing record overall there in three seasons. Losing career record overall.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I can't name my source, but I know someone who works in the Charlotte athletic department, and after they pulled their upset at the start of the season they told me that the general consensus down there was that they were hoping he'd get poached so they could get rid of him on the cheap.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I don't want him, but a .500 record at Charlotte and a .500 record at VT are not comparable. At Charlotte that is a success given where they have started. At VT it is a failure.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I love the idea of Houston. I was there first hand watching what he did at JMU. The staff is amazing, great with the fans, local town and media. I attended practice regularly (the staff was great with us as well). But I would bet the farm Whit won't hire him. I've heard from my friends on staff that Houston, and the staff, didn't realize just how much of a rebuild the ECU program was going to be. The results simply aren't there yet.
I personally think he'll turn it around and get a big job at some point, but I'm not sure now at VT is the time.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
No actual insight here, just thinking out loud(I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm absolutely fascinated with the discussion going on with the prospective new coach):
We keep throwing around names of coaches having their best season THIS season, as if that's all Whit's looking at.
There are plenty of good coaches out there, and there's only so many that we are going to be looking at- considering fit, geographical footprint, capabilities, strengths and weaknesses and such.
There's a good chance that Whit's had his eye on a guy like Houston for years.
So what if he's knee deep in shit at ECU this moment? Shouldn't we be looking for the best candidate and the best fit? Whit should simply be keeping tabs every year on who would best fit and work out at our program.
Fuente was one of the sexiest names in the country in 2015, but he was under contract, too. And Memphis was already a little far east for him- we could clearly use somebody already familiar with the territory. Not saying we need to hire the "anti-Fuente" this season, but holy shit lesson learned on that one (even though swinging for the fences in Texas was a cool idea- we can all see that was a wild bet didn't pan out).
We may get a coach like this- an under the radar guy who's covered in battle scars and raw sewage in 2021, but is capable and a good fit. This may be a saavy hire- somebody who USC, LSU or Washington aren't looking at, but if he fits VT like a glove, he could just as well be our guy.
Keep in mind, any given season we'll be hiring against 5 or so schools that can come over the top of us, and a handful that are right on our level with money as well. We're going to make a smart hire, so just picking the hottest candidate in the country right now might not be where we're going with this.
Chadwell and Napier might be fantastic fits, but if they're at the top of LSU or USC's list, there isn't a high chance of them landing here.
If you think he's an awesome fit for VT- why would you not want him the season we need him?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
For me, he lacks enough bigger program experience. No coaching experience (head, coordinator or position) at a P5 program and his 3 years at ECU haven't shown that he is successful at that level (yet.)
He needs more seasoning before he is a head coach at a P5 program that has aspirations of conference championships and playoffs.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
It's certainly a concern. There aren't going to be any "perfect" candidates, so it's going to be a matter of who has the strengths that best fit us, and the weaknesses that we can work with.
Maybe that's he was saying, too, but Living4Fall jumps in, talks up all of his strengths, what a great fit he'd be, he's got my attention, and then just backs off with like 'maybe he'll end up at UNC next year *shrug*'. I'm like DUDE- you just made an awesome case!
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I nominate Joe for HC. (We know he can engage and build something bigger than him.)
His officer of Quality Control can be DCwilson (few would argue there are individuals with higher standards)
Recruiting co-ordinator can be Fernley Hokie (no individual more positive and inviting)
Defensive co-ordinator is gobble gobble chumps (he's adept at blocking all things offensive)
Offensive co-ordinator is French (knows jimmies, joes, x's, and o's)
I dibs running the social media side: I will just make stupid photoshops of every recruit that commits fully dipped in dork magic
Anyone else want in on this future hall of fame staff?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I've tabulated some comparision data for Jamey Chadwell vs Billy Napier, but if I cut & paste it comes in as plain text, losing the columns and becoming difficult to read. How do I paste a table from spreadsheet data?
Thank you bar1990 !
FIELD1
FIELD2
Jamey Chadwell
Coach
FIELD5
Billy Napier
FIELD7
January 10, 1977 (age 44)
Birthday (Age)
July 21, 1979 (age 42)
Caryville, Tennessee
Birthplace
Cookeville, Tennessee
QB @ ETSU - 2000
Pos @ Alma mater
QB @ Furman - 2002
12 @ 4 schools
#HC Seasons
4
85-54 0.612
HC Career Record
HC Record
37-12 0.755
Institution
Seasons
HC Record
Delta St.
1
3-7 (.300)
North Greenville
3
20-14 (.588)
Coastal Carolina
4
27-19 (.587)
Charleston So.
4
35-14 (.714)
Team Stats 2021
Coastal Carolina
Games Through 11/17/2021
Louisiana
Value
FBS Rank
Stat
FBS Rank
Value
492.8
8
Total Offense
55
420.1
228.1
9
Rushing Offense
24
201.2
264.7
36
Passing Offense
74
218.9
192.96
2
Team Passing Efficiency
59
140.64
42.3
5
Scoring Offense
49
31.2
324.8
22
Total Defense
48
358
142.2
56
Rushing Defense
T-64
147.5
182.6
12
Passing Yards Allowed
40
210.5
126.51
43
Team Passing Efficiency Defense
50
128.38
19.8
19
Scoring Defense
16
19.2
0.2
T-49
Turnover Margin
T-22
0.6
0.559
2
3rd Down Conversion Pct
77
0.382
0.875
1
4th Down Conversion Pct
20
0.68
0.373
50
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
66
0.39
0.389
T-22
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
80
0.56
0.902
21
Red Zone Offense
75
0.829
0.786
35
Red Zone Defense
61
0.821
36.94
102
Net Punting
10
43.08
11.07
35
Punt Returns
85
6.57
19.25
80
Kickoff Returns
77
19.48
232
30
First Downs Offense
T-42
223
166
12
First Downs Defense
41
189
5.3
T-34
Fewest Penalties Per Game
T-40
5.5
48.3
44
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game
53
50.6
31:50
20
Time of Possession
59
30:06
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I speak for myself and this is just my opinion. I would love to see our next head coach be an ex-Hokie. Price seems like he would do well. Ex-Hokie, loves Virginia Tech, would keep the defensive staff in place (unsure what will happen with Teerlink since he is a Fuente guy), and he could get his own offensive staff. He seems like he would be humble and able to relate to the fan base, Virginia high school coaches, and would be loved by the fan base.
Last thing I want is a stranger coming to Blacksburg with no history or love for the school, it's just a job that is a stepping stone, no meaningful relationships built with the fan base or high school coaches in Virginia, and just lacks humility and no Hokie blood in his veins. I love Blacksburg and Virginia Tech and a coach that bleeds maroon and orange is what will lead to success. The big names do not seem to give a damn about Virginia Tech and because of that I want an ex-Hokie. Luckily for most people I am not the athletic director and my opinion means nothing but an ex-hokie keeping other ex-hokies involved in the program, engaging the fan base and Virginia high school coaches, and loving Hokie football is what I want. That said may the best man get the job but instead of taking a risk on a small school coach maybe Price or Hamilton could be a better choice, I'd prefer them over the likes of Bill O'Brien, and folks from FCS schools, and coaches like Hugh Freeze. Anyways, Go Hokies! I support our new coach 110%
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Passing on some tea leaves, take it and sip on it.
One name that has come up and has an interesting connection is Mike Elko A&M DC. Not saying they've reached out but have heard that could be one of the Plan B's that Whit could be considering if he strikes out on A. Elko was Clawson's DC for 2 seasons at WAKE and has coached under Clawson for 12 seasons. This is where I think the Clawson is a front runner noise is coming from as Whit might've reached out to pick his brain on Elko.
There is a slim chance that Clawson would ever leave Wake considering what he's done with that AD as a whole. That 7M buyout is also something that would be a big one to swallow and it sounds like Clawson would want to bring his whole staff from Wake.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Clawson sounds like almost too lazy a selection to be true. And you're right, you'd have to move almost the whole coaching staff, as it's working pretty well where he is now.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Bums me out - I don't think VT should be giving first time HCs a shot. That said, I recognize that coaching hires are a crapshoot. Why couldn't Elko be successful here?
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
So Napier had a fresh haircut and had just shaved from the looks of the Liberty game tonight. Cleaning up for an interview yesterday/early today? Whit also sure looked happy in that press box with the thumbs up.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Sooo....not to be a total downer here but after losing in OT to Mizzou, there are increasing whispers here in the Sunshine State that Mullen is very near being fired. My "sauces" don't think they will fire him this week with FSU coming up, but if UF loses to FSU this week, they think it is nearly certain. Even with a win, they think it is 50/50.
UF is one of the jobs that has been posited as a possible landing spot for Napier.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
It got deleted, but during the game right after that shot of him in the press box, someone @ him on Twitter saying F*** you (Twitter is a cesspool). He immediately responded and just said "Go Hokies" during the game. Must have been in a good mood.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
That field was awful for playing. But that stadium design with the roof is awesome. Didn't even feel a drop of water the whole game on me. Meanwhile it was like tropical rain when I left. The 150 yards from the concourse to my car soaked me down to my skin.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I took it to mean that Lane wants out of Ole Miss to look at Miami or UF, not that he was completely done at Ole Miss. It didn't sound like he was open to any school. Fwiw, some Florida people think they are pursuing Lane but best I can tell, their insiders are all over the place right now. It's the wild wild west in coaching search land these days
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
If it's plus odds, thats the amount of money you win if you bet $100, so +400 would means that if you bet $100, you get back $500, for a profit of $400, conversely if someone was -150, thats the amount you would need to bet to win $100, you would have to bet $150 to win $100
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I did a quick search (so I probably missed some) of books to see if anyone had bets for the VT coach but didn't see any. I did see one for Florida and they currently list Napier as the favorite +350 with Kiffin next as +500.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
if we don't get napier, i would think chadwell and freeman would be the next men up. i am surprised freeman is so low on this list. maybe they just don't see him leaving ND yet, or think he is waiting for a Big 10 job.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Shane Beamer had zero, Dabo had zero. Freemen and Gattis check a lot of boxes I think college football especially second tier teams like Tech should be going for. Young, talented, former NFL, have experience in multiple P5 programs, and a huge thing for me is young black coaches who don't get enough chances in P5 HC searches.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Shane Beamer and Dabo both had previous connections to their current employer, and were uniquely qualified to present a vision on how they could improve their respective programs.
The thing that concerns me about Gattis is that he has struggled to create an offensive identity at Michigan. If you can't create an offensive identity, how do I know you can come up with a vision/identity for an entire program?
I don't think Freeman's experience is that impressive - he spend 3 years at a position coach at Purdue during the Hazell era, a few years at Cincy, and 11 games at ND. He hasn't spent any significant time being mentored by a great head coach, doesn't have any experience in the Mid-Atlantic - he seems like a mid-west guy - Why VT?
I recognize the need for more minority head coaches (both from a recruiting-to-VT standpoint, and an equity/social justice standpoint), but both of these hires (to me) seem like bad choices for VT - I honestly think hiring Gattis or Freeman would be setting them up for failure (and that's not fair to them).
That said, I also recognize that hiring a head coach is a crapshoot - there's no single right way to do it, and thousands of wrong ways to do it. If either of these guys can present a comprehensive vision for VT football and strategy for implementing their vision, and Whit buys into it, then I will get onboard.
Edit: a letter
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Note to self: Look down at the bottom of the post to see what has changed before scanning a post thinking "this sounds familiar" only to see that a single letter was changed. ;^)
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
this is the epitome of overthinking things -- you can name drop a beamer (who we don't even know is good or not yet) and the single biggest outlier in Dabo, but one year of P5 coordinator is not nearly enough an established track record. Former NFL player is nice, but a guy having a cup of coffee in the league as a practice squad guy doesn't move the needle for me relative to answering the questions like "has he run literally any program before" or "how long has he been very good at his job". i'm not saying i know that Gattis or Freeman would bust, i'm just saying it makes way way more sense to me to take a swing on Huff, Chadwell, or Elko than it does either of those two. Huff and Chadwell have been head coaches (though we dont even know if Huff is good yet and Chadwell has zero experience around P5) and Elko has been a P5 DC for 8 years incl ND and A&M
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Can Elko recruit when he isn't dropping a bag though? Can he be a CEO or is he just a good ball coach? Freeman has some of the same questions but at least we can be pretty sure of his recruiting ability and he has guys like Fickell and Brian Kelly vouching for him as a future HC.
Still like a Clawson/Napier type with HC experience over any of these guys.
Huff is a really intriguing prospect as well, because I can't really think of a coach that's an analogue to him. That said he hasn't really done all that well in a bad conference with a team that was almost undefeated last year. He'll finish 7-5 (Western Kentucky is gonna whip them this weekend) in a bad conference. Recruiting obviously he'll be above average or better, probably same with developing skill positions on offense. The rest is tbd, he'd need to hire a great support staff (and we'd have to give him the money to)
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I also don't understand why anyone would be excited about Chadwell. He is the least exciting candidate on the board I think. Gimmicky offense which will be shut down by P5 defenses after a year of film, such a unique scheme that only his guys know how to run it so destroys any hope of a big time staff, no P5 experience at all, not known to be particularly good with media/fans. Would rather not hire Fu again.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
As someone who is a Chadwell fan, and has watched at least 5 coastal Carolina games over the last two years, I would say the following:
I don't think his offense is 'gimmicky' at all - I think he exploits match ups, and puts opposing defenses in precarious situations. I don't think that it will limit us in recruiting, in fact, I think a lot of the concepts he's developed will be mainstream in the next 5-10 years (just like chip Kelley's offenses).
I don't understand where the notion that he's not a charismatic guy come from. I saw French's comment in another thread, but everything I've read says otherwise.
I don't think that VT can recruit above a top-20 level, so I think we need to hire an innovator at head coach (or at least at the coordinator level).
I admit that I do have concerns about his ability to recruit at a top 25 level (which is my expectation for VT). Like any hire in 2021, the surrounding staff will matter.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
here is his intro press conference from when he was hired as AHC/OC at Coastal. I skipped to when he starts talking. He doesn't seem like he has a wet blanket personality at all.
Here is his appearance on gameday last year
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I don't see his offense being creative as a knock against him. However he has been the beneficiary of some bad tackling in the Sun Belt (a lot of that is putting his guys in the right spot, a lot of it is also just bad tackling). Recruiting wise people here are hyping up Napier, but Chadwell actually has actually out recruited him this cycle (in NC,SC,GA,VA too as opposed to LA,TX). Defense is a concern though, he'll need to go out and get a good coordinator (JHam maybe?) the coastal guy is not going to cut it.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
for the life of me, i just can't figure out the appeal of mullen. he just bombed at florida, and he couldn't recruit well there. if you can't recruit well at florida, there is no way in hell you are recruiting well at VT.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I wouldn't say he bombed, he just went 10-3, 11-2, 8-4 and then 5-6, at UF, his avg recruit at UF has also been about a 90 composite which I don't have enough history to know if that is under performing at UF but is still objectively good, he also had a winning season in 7 of 9 seasons at Mississippi St which is unheard of success for them, I'm not a fan of him personally, think he's a bit of a tool and would prefer someone else as coach but the dude has been a good coach and has had a ton of success in the SEC, the small sample size of the past 12 months shouldn't outweigh a career's worth of success, I could see why people would want him.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Florida is currently at the 14th best class based on average recruit rating. This is just slightly below PSU. His lack of 5* so far is what hurts his ratings, but still has a solid class.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I wouldn't say he bombed at Florida. He went to three NY6 bowls (won two) and won the SEC East last year. I'm not sure on the recruiting numbers.
I guess my main concern on him would be that UF folks seem to think that he isn't a good CEO of the program. A lot of people seem to think if he had canned Todd Grantham, he probably would've been ok, but for some reason he refused to do so. I know every fanbase has a scapegoat so I'm not sure how accurate that is, but it does sound very familiar...
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
I would take Mullen in a heartbeat. He didn't bomb at Florida. He would improve our program in recruiting and give us a CEO type. He has SEC pedigree and lots of head coaching experience. He might not be here forever but that's ok.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Steven Godfrey said if UF opens Napier will be there, so I'm guessing he's not gonna be interested in VT.
I think LSU is being *dumb* by (presumably) thinking he's not good enough for them, but I have to imagine between LSU and UF we're gonna get big dogged.
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
i'd bet that LBT read the op as meaning "before UF makes up their mind and fires mullen" because that's how i processed it at first ("huh? i thought they already fired him") before i realized it probably meant "before UF agrees to hire a replacement"
Log in or register to post comments about the Virginia Tech Hokies
Comments
Any Functioning Coach 2022
Have we considered bio-engineering a new coach from scratch? Just avoid the carousel entirely.
So like the movie Weird Science but less horny?
We could make the coach hot and keep the same level of horny.
This is how you attract the croots
Plus you save money by not having to hire "hostesses" like Tennessee does.
And if they are engineered, limited salary because no experience.
Didn't our last horny coach get into a bit of trouble? lol...
I thought we stopped inventing the future.
/s
I think we did for football, anyway.
something something now we're just living in the past
Time to RE-invent the future.
Make the future great again
Yes. We tried creating something that doesn't exist (a good P5 football coach out of Memphis). That didn't work. Maybe now we should start Engineering the Future, where we create something known that will be effective in a given situation. Like, say, a competent-to-outstanding P5 coach.
We should give CornFu the benefit of the doubt. Their brilliance and vision can't be realized, unless we have zero injuries/attrition on the roster.
We did.
That's how we got here, silly.
Ah, but you forget about the flawless execution.
...from the players of course.
Huff or bust
There's no new information as of this post, but insiders keep saying stuff is happening and likely more telling, national level guys keep saying stuff like "expect the VT job to be available".
I count that as a win, fam.
I have no idea who fits behind the scene, but Mike Elko came from the Dave Clawson school, but has the blueblood experience of Notre Dame and Texas A&M. And, I think it is easier for Virginia Tech to sell having a great defense as the culture easier than being an explosive offense.
Elko is a name I've heard here and there but not en mass that I'm interested in. Wouldn't be my first pick but a name to keep in mind. Loose VA ties. No HC experience but a decent record and tree where he's been.
A&M is not a blue blood.
Being in the SEC automatically confers blue blood status. It just means more.
Clark Lea on Mike Elko
https://youtu.be/hs6VLrNKRyY
Napier pls
I saw a ton of comments in the other thread of people saying things like "so-and-so worries me" or "they wouldn't excite me".
In 2015, I was excited with the Fuente hire, as I think a lot of us were. The hit rate on coaches is very low. At this point, the only thing that is certain is that Fuente is not the right guy. I'd be happy to talk myself into nearly anyone who isn't a documented scumbag.
Also, this is an interesting, and a tad concerning for us, read on coaching search trends
What in there is concerning?
I thought Point #1 was very promising. Being devil's advocate, #2 seems a bit concerning if it pushes the "cut ties" moment to the middle of the season. That "three years and move on" mentality that has put some once-prominent schools into stagnation could compress even further and destabilize at a faster rate.
I can't find the exact stat, but I think Bob Stoops was the last P5 assistant to win his first conference title more than 3 years after being at the program. After year 3 you typically know what you have.
Why stay in a relationship with someone you know you don't want to be with?
3 is certainly a weigh station to take stock of what you have, but not every situation is the same. That's where I think the AD makes their money- more so than the initial hire.
To quote the great Kenneth Rogers:
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
did you read the article? There were several things that might be concerning, but the biggest, IMO is the idea that ADs have to move quickly to lock up good coaching candidates because, this year in particular, there are going to be a lot of big jobs coming open (jobs much more desirable than VT) and it's going to be slim pickin's. If Whit waits until December 16th to make a move, there may not be anybody available. That is a huge, f-ing, concern.
Yeah, but towards the end of the article, he says this
Which alleviates my biggest concern; Justin Fuente being the head coach of Virginia Tech
prime ACC job is like Manager at Applebees. The ACC is a bit of a joke, especially with Clemson falling off lately.
But the point isn't that the job will be available. The point is that the job will come available late (Dec. 16th) and there won't be any good coaches left on the market. That is the concern.
If Whit surprises me and fires Fuente on Nov 27th and gets VT on the market while there are still some hot names out there who would be interested, I'll feel better about our prospects. But if we're waiting until December 16th to make moves I'm very concerned what that will mean for VT. After last year, how can any potential candidates trust that the job will be available for them? Good, smart coaches are going to want to get hired and rolling sooner rather than later. Waiting until after early signing day is not going to be enticing to the best candidates.
I really worry that waiting until the buyout drops will turn out to be a big mistake. The potential hidden costs associated with not acting quickly could dwarf the 2.5 million we might "save" by waiting for the drop. I really hope Whit doesn't fumble the bag again. I'm willing to bet that the reason he didn't fire Fuente last year, when he really wanted to, had a lot to do with waiting for the drop. If he had acted more quickly, he might have gotten his guy locked up in time. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake this time around.
I doubt that. We played uva on December 12th. There were still regular season and championship games being played on the 19th.
The buyout drop date last year was the equivalent of it being December 1st in a normal year.
I read the article a different way. And maybe because the wife is watching moneyball, but if we want a hot name then you might need to rethink things. Lots of the guys in the article weren't hot names. Sam Pittman, Dabo Swiney, Shane Beamer, the guy at TTU were mostly unknowns. The times are changing. In the AP era coaches last at a school less that 4 seasons. Following the traditional approach you are more likely to fail when hiring a coach than succeed.
If by following the traditional methods lead to failure, then why is everyone following them? A hot coach is a safe hire, but not necessarily a good coach. If your not hiring the next hot coach then waiting doesn't matter. Look at Arkansas, Sam Pittman is 59 years old, he was no where close to a hot coach, he was pretty obscure, yet lots of people are excited for bowl eligibility.
I don't put any stock in this being a real concern. The programs in the worst shape are the programs with less money (ie, G5 schools). Not the schools who fire their coaches later. It would be a great concern to have to fire a coach suddenly and as a complete surprise; that's a real disadvantage as far as putting yourself behind schedule to land your next coach. But if Fuente's departure is even a possibility at the end of the season, wheels are already turning for getting the next coach to Blacksburg.
If a coach wanted to bite on an early offer from UMass, they still have their agent preventing them from leaving bigger money on the table. The only reason for any potential coach to sign early at UMass is a lack of interest from other schools with openings. Whit probably doesn't even have to do anything other than answer his phone- their agent will be calling around and finding out where they stand before they sign anywhere.
Timing does not prevent LSU or USC from big-dogging us.
And it won't prevent us from big-dogging Akron, either.
The Manny Diaz' Temple-to-Miami jump is sort of like that Great White vs Orca documentary that shows up every year on shark week. Fascinating to see when something like that happens. But rare as hell because Apex predators respect the hell out of each other and generally stay out of each other's way.
I feel like it's a fairly safe assumption that any new coach won't be hiring Corn as their OC, which is a huge positive on their list.
Let's not forget how underwhelmed people were with the Mike Young hire. And that was for a basketball program with lower expectations, the consensus seemed to be that Whit aimed low and made a disappointing hire. Often what excites fans doesn't make for a great hire.
So you're saying No Hugh Freeze
It's a good article, but I don't really find it alarming.
In fact, I find this a bit relevant:
It's a Brave New World, and VT is a decent destination for both coaches and players.
I'm looking forward to see what Whit draws up this time.
👍
Got crickets when I posted.
Napier and Huff seem to make the most sense to me. Chadwell has a really high octane offense and has built a great program down at Coastal, but the lack of P5 experience concerns me. Does he have what it takes to run a P5 program and elevate VT's recruiting? I'm sure Whit will do his homework. We don't want to get into another Fuente situation, but if Chadwell can get it done and isn't a Fuente clone, I'm onboard.
Fuente's biggest failure, IMO, is his stubborn unwillingness to part ways with underperforming staff. If Whit can get buy in from whoever the next coach is to give his staff honest evaluations and hold them accountable (and, if necessary, fire them) that will be a step up from Fuente no matter what.
Frank had the same flaw but still was able to motivate the team to do better than 6-6.
At least the folks Beamer kept around were good at some job, maybe not the highest one they got promoted to, but they had redeeming qualities.
I've yet to see any evidence that Corny has contributed anything positive to this program.
I agree, not moving on from Stiney sooner I believe is the mistake that capped the ceiling of VT's best teams in the 00's. But Beamer was also good at recruiting (finding undervalued recruits that blue bloods had overlooked anyways), implemented innovative special teams techniques, and had an elite defensive coordinator. Fuente currently has none of those advantages nor would I necessarily expect our new hire to either.
Agreed. If Fuente actually performed on the field more, I think the recruiting would have been better. He had the interest and ears of some really good players but at the end of the day those guys don't want to be on a 6-6 team.
It's his inability to acquire top talent and establish depth. I can't stand Cornelson, but his shitty system would win with better athletes
I don't think his system is shitty, actually. The plays are there within the structure of the system. What's shitty is that he can't coach his QBs out of a wet paper bag and the play calling doesn't take advantage of the system's structure. He completely abandons entire chapters of the playbook for long stretches and that inhibits the rest of the offense. The system can work beautifully if you mix up play calls to force the defense to defend the entire field (which the system avails) but he doesn't do that. On top of poor play calling, the player development has been completely non-existent. I don't think I can name a single offensive player who has looked better in year X than they looked in year 1. We've actually done a fair job of bringing in capable athletes (perhaps not elite, but capable) but after 4 years they still look and play like freshman. We might as well be playing with zero upper classmen. There is serviceable talent on this team (Thomas, Turner, Robinson, Payoute, Deluliis, Mitchel, etc.). Hooker and QP are certainly very talented and they've been thriving in different situations.
I'll give you roster management. That is another huge issue. That, coupled with the inability to develop the players we do have, makes it difficult to field a competitive team. Ultimately, the job that Cornelsen has - bringing in talent, developing talent, devising game plans, preparing the team to execute those plans, string together sensible play calls that complement each other, make adjustments during the game, etc. - he just doesn't do. He doesn't do a single one of these tasks with any kind of proficiency.
Player development:
I think Blackshear looks better this year than last year. I think a lot of the O line has continually developed. I think we saw Cam develop. I think Holston has gotten a little better than he was even though its still not the level we need.
Play calling:
I personally consider this part of the system. But if you want to separate them sure. I don't see the difference between having plays and not calling them. I do not like how we have no passing routes in the middle third of the field. I don't like running into the boundary as much as we do. I don't like what appears to be designed hand offs dressed up as read options. I don't like how slow we run plays. I haaaate our wr screen game, way too slow.
Going to disagree. Fuente's biggest flaw is the inability to acquire and retain excellent football players.
Getting and retaining better players would probably be a whole lot easier for him if he had competent coaches 🤷♂️
Having a much better coaching staff working for him would go a looong long way towards fixing several of our other ails too
Hooker is a good example of a talented player who under achieved in Blacksburg because of bad coaching. Once he got out, he blossomed. You're never going to convince me that if we just had better players we'd be markedly better.
The chicken or the egg?
The egg in the chicken has a chicken in it with an egg.
I am team #Napierorbust
oh man.... I'm gonna get buried for this.... but here goes:
Bring back Frank as the figure head and face of the program.... Pay him in Milk shakes.
Use the rest of the budget to surround him with the best co-ordinators and recruiters we can buy....
If it doesn't work, a .500 season under Frank won't be this contentious nasty thing that it is under some maligned aspiring young coach.
Did you see the video of Frank down there in Columbia with Shane? He looked genuinely happy and genuinely old. Don't mess with Frank's retirement, he's earned these golden moments many times over.
Upvoted to 25. Leave it there
I was about to upvote but noticed the 25. You shall get the upvote instead.
Now he has 25.
I hear you, I hear you. It's hard to disagree how content he looks. buuuuuuut.... did he look happier than this guy?
He was at the Basketball games on Tuesday.
Meetings with Whit?
All I know is that it could get worse but statistically at this point it should get better?
I'm Ron Burgandy?
Don't care who the head coach is. More concerned with our overall recruiting profile and who the coordinators will be.
I don't care if we get Bill Belichick, if our recruiting sucks and the coordinators are Cornball levels of incompetent, we're still gonna suck.
I think you bring up a good point. Everyone thought FU and T.Herman where the greatest thing since sliced bread-hottest coaches on the market but we all found ourselves wondering why they could'nt succeed at their new program. I think they had a really good team around them at their previous program and it made them successful. So maybe we should put more effort-money into assistant coaches and less in a head coach. I believe both FU and TH can coach but they have to have the right people around them to be successful as most coaches do. Look at Georgia. Kirby did a good job running the program and they won a lot of games but never the big one. Bring in WM and now they look unbeatable and they will probably win the national title. Even Saban is suffering this year from loosing assistant coaches and BAMA now looks beatable. I think we need assistant coaches who can recruit and just as important coach up their positions. I'm hoping Whit can find the answer but until then......Let's go Hokies!
Reckoning is such a great word, especially when spoken by Doc Holiday...
"It's not revenge he's after, it's the Reckoning."
If you're into reading tea leaves, there is a post from a very high level (BOV) individual on another forum. Takeaways could be:
If you're expecting a mid season firing... don't.
A linked article in the post seems to say things are trending away from every offensive wunderkind who has the next great system. Expect them to be looking for someone engaging, focused on the players. The fact that he chose to share that particular article would indicate that feeling is shared by at least some portion of the BOV.
I don't think his comments are behind the paywall
They aren't. I don't have an account there, but can see most of the thread.
I think this is the article for those interested. I am happy to hear that ADs are apparently moving away from focusing on OCs for the next great head whistle. I hope this might help bring some variety and
parodyparity to college ball. I think having a players' coach and someone personable would greatly help with program relations at Tech, but also couldn't hurt with the shift we're going to see caused by NIL deals.HaHaHaHaHa
I think you meant "parity", but this is better.
Haha oops, both would be good.
We did just show up on SEC shorts, so more of that is good.
I think they got that part right.
I'd say we've seen enough football parody here over the last several years.
I miss when lolUVA was the parody of college football. Let's go back to that.
Please, let's get back to that.
It's all I want for every Christmas.
Amen, brother.
Ah, back in the days we'd laugh at the idea of losing to d00k in Football. Good times.
I too saw this article/post and thought it was interesting. Would lead me to believe we are heading toward a CEO type hire who can build relationships and effectively sell the program to donors and recruits. I think we take a total 180 degree approach from Fu with this hire. This would also likely entail some strong coordinator and staff hires as well. Definitely has me hopeful and interested to see which direction this goes. Likely makes me think people like Chadwell or other offensive guru types won't be considered.
He is clearly insinuating a new coach will be coming to VT. So, that should, for now at least, keep us off the ledge of Fuente staying.
Does not specifically say the candidate they are targeting, but it's obvious based on the hints dropped that it's either Chadwell or Huff. There's some stirring going on about Chadwell interviewing with Babcock already.
I'll have the Marshall game on while the Duke game is on. They are 6-3 now. Bad loss to MTSU, but some solid wins since then. Huff has a long history of not staying very long at one place, typical for position coaches, and might even stay put at Marshall for another year to show he can do it.
Key information in that thread: spending money for future staff is available. Sounds like the buyout is the issue, so we patiently wait until Dec 16th.
If you're basing hints strictly off the article posted, what makes you believe its strongly hinting at Chadwell? Because while he may check the box of connecting to players like the article mentioned, he also fits the description the article mentioned of guys teams are going the other way against (ie offensive genius type, system, may be tied to a specific QB, etc).
Now it very well be Chadwell based off other rumors, but I'm just saying if you strictly go off the article, I'd say Huff and Napier fit the description better than Chadwell
I was referencing the poster on the other site, and the hints he dropped in that thread. The article is generic, but it's the direction our AD and the BOV are going.
Yeah, I was too. And unless he's dropped other hints behind a paywall, I took it that the article he posted was intended to be the hint at the direction the administration was leaning. And if that's the case, that would point more to Huff or Napier imo than it would Chadwell.
Lets be honest here: When Fuente was hired he was the hot coach of that cycle.
Hot coach is not equivalent with good, smart coach (unless we are bio-hacking a Weird Science coach).
Waiting till the buyout drops might mean not getting a hot coach, but it might be possible (maybe not probable) to get the right coach.
The only strong opinion I have is that waiting til the buyout drops is a horrible idea. Waiting puts you behind the ball getting your new coach and it also gives that coach zero days to convince incoming recruits to stick around. If you want to make a move get the money and do it. If your AD can't raise a couple million in an afternoon of phone calls for something as important as the football coach, not sure they should have a job either.
Ultimately we should know the situation the Monday after the UVA game. If Fuente is still in his office, emotionally prepare yourself for 2022-23 with him as coach
It's easy to forget that the buyout is $10 million, not $2.5 million.
you're paying the $10m either way whether you wait til mid december or not. the difference is $2.5m and that's what's being talked about (and you know it)
I'm saying that it's not that you have to come up with a couple of million, you have to come up with $10 million.
This is my point. You can pretend that it's not valid and write it off, but that's not really the case.
Add to that you have to come up with what is likely to be a higher salary for both the head coach and assistants.
People here talk about money like it's nothing, but VT has always done more with less, and has run a tight ship financially.
it's a stupid point. EVERYONE knows that the buyout is currently 10 million and it drops by....wait for it...2.5 million... on December 16th.
The assumption is that Fuente is being fired this year and all the debate over the 2.5 million has everything to do with the timing (before or after buyout drop date)
At this point, your constant reminders that the buyout is not 2.5 is noise. Everyone knows this. Read the room. Understand the nuance.
I'm reading the room as intolerant of any opinion that isn't "Fire Fuente yesterday".
By chance, are two married? s/
what is the point of beating the wElL AcTUalLy drum by bringing the conversation to absolute cost when it's clear the discussion was centered around relative cost of firing now vs firing in december when the buyout drops. The difference in the buyouts now vs later is $2.5m -- that's where the "couple million" comes from.
You folks can bristle over it, but my point is that Whit has to come up with $10 million for a buyout.
I'm saying he can, but it's not trivial.
nobody's bristling over anything, just pointing out that your consistent attempts to reframe the parameters of the
decisiondiscussion are tired, especially when it comes off as a condescending correction instead of an actual contribution to the discussion. we know the buyout is $10m in december, what's being talked about is whether or not paying the "couple million" difference represents value.I'm not trying to "reframe" the discussion. I'm pointing out something I felt was relevant.
If you find me repetitive, have a look at the "Fire Fuente NOW", discussion, which is 90% of the discussion here.
I often try to point out a perspective that I find missing, but I'll leave you folks to it.
Either the $10m Fuente is due in December is a sunk cost and irrelevant to the discussion of whether you fire him now or wait til December, or Fuente is back next year. There's not much in-between nuance there.
Agreed. You think Fuente doesn't know he is gone regardless?
So whos gonna be the cousin eddie and go fetch Billy Napier with a big bow for christmas?
Here's a write-up on Mike Elko from 247:
Elko would be another very intriguing hire. The post/article suggesting we may go with a CEO-type hire makes me think that coordinators aren't necessarily off the table for the HC position.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the buyout drops Dec 16, and early signing day is Dec 15 correct?
IMO that is why Fu needs to be fired sooner rather than later. Granted, the incoming class has the same info we do, and should be aware of the instability of Fu's position... but to let kids sign one day and fire the coach the next day is dirty.
If I'm a recruit and Fu is employed Dec 15, I ain't signing shit.
Get our new guy in place ahead of time.
Edit: just to be clear, my point in the original post was not so much about salvaging the recruiting class, but more about not dicking over the players considering signing on ESD
Well that's pretty much it.
By waiting til December 16th, you're volunteering to completely burn one recruiting class. You might get a few guys to declare for regular signing day and you better hope the new coach has some guys transfer in, but the bulk of recruiting is now complete with ESD. By waiting til it passes, you're basically forfeiting a recruiting cycle to save some money.
The long term losses by having a program trying to overcome that kind of self sabotage will very likely end up being far more expensive than the $2.5m we're saving right now by waiting.
I'm not sold it would burn an entire class but it would have to be done lightning quick with the firing and hiring being the same day, if that was the case, the students have till the 17th to sign their NLIs or could wait till the normal signing day.
We want a coach who is a better at recruiting than Fuente so if that's the case we would hope he would be able to hold onto those who are committed and have them sign on the normal signing day, additionally if these players are that committed to Fuente that they wouldn't want to play for a new coach it doesn't totally matter if we fire him on the 5th or 16th they aren't coming.
At the end of the day, doing this would be a dick move to everyone involved.
You're asking Fuente to try and secure a class on ESD knowing he's not going to be our coach next year. You're going to have kids signing with us knowing you're about to fire the guy they are signing to play for. And you're basically causing the same situation to happen at whatever school you're getting our new coach from, especially if everything is lined up to happen same day.
Just an all around dick move to save a bit of money, and the only way it wouldn't completely blow up in our face is if it goes absolutely perfectly. And even then, we're going to be dealing with bad PR for the screwjob we would be putting anyone who signed on the 15th for either us or the school the new coach is coming from.
TBH, I think Fu is fired right after the UVa game. I think they are going to give it the next three weeks to try and negotiate the buyout down, but if he won't budge (which I doubt he will), he's fired right after UVa. I don't think they will actually wait until the 16th. We may not name the new coach for another week or so after, depending on if they are still playing in a game, but I'm sure Whit would contact all of the class right after Nov 27 and let them know he has a good new coach coming and to stay onboard.
For the record, I agree with you. Game is on Saturday and I think the announcement will be made by Monday at the latest. There's just too much short and long term risk in play by waiting til the 16th to make the move, especially given the timing of Early Signing Day.
Which, interestingly, the Fuente extension was signed before ESD was reinstated, but barely. Fuente signed his extension on April 3, 2017, and the NCAA Council voted to reinstate ESD on April 14, 2017. I always just assumed it was bad luck that the date of the buyout decrease happened during that ESD period, but given the timing here and the likelihood that Whit knew what the dates of ESD would be, it looks like that was intentional.
Which... Absolutely stupid on our part if it was.
How I imagine buyout negotiations to go
Whit: How about $7.5M?
Fu:
Whit: $8?
Fu:
Whit: Okay $9
Fu:
Whit: Okay fine the full $10
Fu:
Fu's agent:
In all seriousness, I wonder if it's been offered to pay a certain sum of money lump sum if he will agree to "resign" right after the UVA game. Rather than VT officially terminating him and possibly paying the full buyout in installments. You have to think the former has some appeal if he wants to salvage his coaching career. But honestly he may just want to get out. I would rather have the money lump sum regardless though.
But why would VT want to do the lump sum? It would cost less to pay out in installments, as future dollars are worth less than current dollars. Is it really worth having him resign vs terminating him?
a negotiated lump sum would likely be a lower overall payout, similar to lottery winnings
Yup, $5 or 6 million cash up front today versus we are going to pay you 1.875 a year over the next 4.
Just tell him we'll give him 100 bitcoin now if he leaves early. Both he and the school would come out ahead :)
Dogecoin.
I'm no lawyer, but why can't Whit announce Fu's gone on Dec 16 just after the UVa game, and announce Coach So and So has accepted the Head Whistle job once Fu leaves? Saves $2.5 mil and Whit can contact the recruits and say here's what we got. Even possibly have the new coach talk to them.
Again, I'm no lawyer.
To be fair I don't think (or at the minimum would not advise) any student from signing on the first day of ESD if the coach's buyout drops the next day and is pretty widely known to be on the hot seat, my personal hope is he's fired after UVA and waiting till the 16th would not be good for our recruiting class but I don't think it would end the world
Is anyone really salvaging the signing class between coaches, regardless of when the hire is announced? We announced Fuente (and Foster!) plenty early in 2015, and we still got a trash recruiting class.
Let's say a new coach comes in tomorrow. How is he going to create relationships with VA high school coaches, and actually convince kids to come to VT in 6 weeks? Best case scenario, this coach builds a top 40-50 recruiting class in 6 weeks.
Or, we wait until 12/16, and we get a top 50-70 recruiting class? Who cares? Wiscy has the 50th best recruiting class right now with one 4-star, ten 3-stars, and an average rating of 87.26. Coastal Carolina has the 63rd best class with 13 3-stars, and an average rating of 84.13. VT currently has the 20th best class with three 4-stars and 20 3-stars, with an average rating of 85.98.
Would love to see some actual data comparing coach firings/coach hirings to recruiting class quality.
Bud Elliot has been pretty adamant that the ESD timing in relation to new coach fire/hire timing has hindered the start of quite a few coaching stints. I think if you reached out to him he could give you some hard data on it, though it's not hard to find multiple examples of coach's first classes being pretty bad, some at the time of signing, some when you go back and look at the attrition numbers and hit rate, some both.
Our 2016 class was a drop off at the time (42nd, .8485 avg rating), but we actually managed to get quite a few contributors out of that class:
Starters: Jerod Evans, Deablo, Reggie Floyd, Emmanuel Belmar, Jarrod Hewitt, Silas Dzansi (prepped and joined next class, so this is iffy on which to qualify as)
Contributors/Starters who transferred later: Josh Jackson, Ladler, Kumah, Jovonn Quillen, Tyree Rodgers.
Players who were good, but didn't ultimately play for us: Tavante Beckett
Getting notable contributions from 11/22 players isn't bad for a transition class, but multiple of those contributors ended up transferring out which is a negative commonly seen in these first classes, and it's hard to count Beckett as a recruiting win even though he ended up being a good player at Marshall.
It's tough to look at the 2016 class because (1) early signing day wasn't a thing then, (2) the transfer portal wasn't a thing then, and (3) a lot of the defensive staff remained in tact. Of the 6 starters, 4 were defensive players (presumably their position coach was returning). Jerod was a late edition who Fuente was already recruiting before he arrived at VT. Dzansi committed to VT really late.
Fuente (& staff) clearly recruited the latter two players, but couldn't a new coach just go into the transfer portal?
Edit:
So I asked Bud:
Basically - Bud thinks the coach should take an L on his first class, and throw the leftover schollies to the transfer portal and future class's recruits.
I think the transfer portal is almost necessary for any new coach given the recent attrition trends and ESD.
What Mel Tucket brought in via the portal this past offseason is insane. Tons of high quality starters like Walker, Ronald Williams, Quavaris Crouch, among many others. There was a great article in the Athletic about it.
I think I may have misunderstood your initial point. I was moreso just talking about ESD causing first classes to suck, which we all agree with, and now I think we're all in even more agreement that it's best to use the portal, particularly in the first two years to make up for the first class sucking.
Oh yea, for sure, ESD ruins every coaches first class. Which is why I don't understand why it matters if we announce a new hire on 11/15, or 12/2, or 12/16.
Going back 5 years, there are ~24 coaching changes each season. That's about 20% of all coaching jobs, each and every year. (Okay, so some of this is poaching, but firings aren't exactly shocking in this business).
Do 15-20 recruiting classes really evaporate into the wind or tank every cycle?
I can gather why we'd be freaking out about this- many Hokie fans have only ever seen one coaching change over the course of their lives (and it was an astonishingly rare retirement!)
But is this really anything to fret, or is this a pretty normal and predictable occurrence we're talking about with the head coach of an FBS program probably not coming back next season?
I'm pretty insistent on this point, and I'll say it again. Football recruits make commitments to Universities. A head coach is just another perk of the University.
Right now, we have 24 commitments. And the time to decommit would be now- there are currently about half of the FBS recruits committed (and about 65% of the spots in the Power 5 are taken. Possibly less- there should be ~2900 FBS commits this season, but given the scholarship numbers from COVID, probably going to be a little short this year.)
Are we starting to see an impending wave of decommitments?
I'd argue that we should be feeling pretty down if we had a TINY class right now- that's saying these kids, their parents and their coaches don't think really highly of this University and doubt we'll be able to make a good coaching hire right now.
All of 2021, the decision to play for Virginia Tech next season HAD to have been made knowing the coach was on the hot seat. And we've been pretty consistent at playing disappointing football for a couple of seasons now.
I think these kids, their parents, and coaches are just betting on Virginia Tech.
Hiring a Paul Johnson to run the triple option- yeah, you're probably going to see some kids turn. And run. If that shit happens.
But with all of the bad feelings surrounding our favorite program (not winning football games. Not Scrooge McDuckin' around in Alabama money)... We're no slouch.
Whit's probably letting go of Fuente at the end of the season. There's probably going to be a new coach. And he's probably going to be pretty highly regarded, too.
I'm betting that was already baked into the decision-making process with most of these kids.
Having one of our better seasons on the recruiting trail on Fuente's (probable and likely) last season might just somehow not be a glowing review of Justin Fuente.
These aren't commitments to Justin Fuente. I'm not sure how a fanbase so unanimously opposed to a man sticking around could honestly believe that all of these recruits just love, love, love the same exact fella and just wouldn't want to play for anybody else.
You summed up my thoughts on ESD with math! Great.
Not to mention, of all the years to try and be a last second free agent, this might be the scariest with the number of portal players from covid. It's going to be a blood bath of kids getting processed at the end of the season across the P5.
While I greatly appreciate the work that into that post (seriously, well written and presented), I'd like to remind people that we have experience with commitments being bullshit until a signature is inked on the NLI.
I assume everybody is aware of this, as I don't address it at all here. Some commitments are more certain than others, some kids have options and some don't. Nothing is certain until ink hits paper.
My intention in writing this wasn't to try and claim we won't have any decommitments. They should be expected each and every year.
There's a confusing and counterintuitive relationship between football recruits, coaches and programs.
I'm trying to point out how this works over scale (the best recruits are actually attracted to the best programs), rather than the intuitive assumption (recruits SHOULD be attracted to individual coaches).
If 20% of coaches change each season, that would mean the average coaching tenure is 5 seasons. If you're a recruit, somebody likely points this out to you.
"I like college x's coach the most"
"He probably won't be there when you graduate. Which school/program do you prefer?"
Whether the recruits know this themselves, or a friend/coach/mentor/parent presents it to them, this is (over scale), how these decisions are being made.
And over time, the same schools attract the same level of recruits, over and over. When coaches change jobs, their "recruiting numbers" fall in line (with very few exceptions) with how the school had "recruited" before, and will "recruit" after.
Some notable exceptions: GT ran the NFL-irrelevant triple option offense (scores dropped a little). Ole Miss was paying players (scores rose a little). UNC faced heavy sanctions (scores dropped a little).
In each of these cases, a "coach" may appear to be the reason for the scores changing. But when that program-wide deviation went away, the scores essentially return to what they were before.
It would appear that the relatively short tenure of coaches are likely minimizing their significance when football recruits pick their programs. And this would seem counter-intuitive.
Fuente getting fired definitely affects the players on our team, certainly on an emotional level. But the kids who have never played for him? Unlikely.
TL;DR - coach Fuente leaving is probably not effecting our recruiting much this season (and whether it's a slight positive or negative isn't clear). "Precisely when" definitely isn't going to matter in how the 2022 class works out.
I want someone who will bring an on-field identity to the team. I don't care what it is, I just think we would benefit from that, like the BeamerBall identity from back in the day. We could be a RB factory with road graders on the O-Line, an Air Raid attack, even a weird defense like a ballhawking 3-3-5 and call ourselves V-INT or something.
The fanbase will 100% get on board with an identity and it's a better way for us to compete than having a strategy that amounts to "recruit good players and be good at football" or whatever the hell CornFu thought they were doing. That works for Saban, and we might get back to that level, but the clearest path to getting a consistent winner back in action is to have an identity and build from that.
Did you mean: GRIT?
It requires identity and player development. Everyone is harping on recruiting, which is of course one major important component of cfb, but the player development under this staff has been poor. A clear identity with a coach who can identify and recruit a player and consistently develop a better player that leaves the school than who enters it is a big key for me.
Put on the Marshall game against FAU from last week, a few things pop out:
Run first offense, MT would thrive
Physical
Defense is very similar to what we do, have done, many of the players recruited by JC Price
Huff got to coach some very successful running backs in his 2 years at Alabama.
I'm curious to know if he would bring Wiggins back to Blacksburg....
I also have a feeling he'd keep quite a bit of the defensive staff.
I doubt Wiggins would be welcome back. He wasn't fired for football related reasons, that was an athletic department/university decision, I'm sure.
Think you are thinking of the wrong coach
Correct. Wiggins left for Bama.... Galen Scott was told where the door is. Galen is also currently on Napier's staff at ULL, so there's that as well.
Wiggins would be a great addition should Huff get tabbed HC.
Yep, sorry I confused Wiggins and Scott.
you're right in that he wasn't fired for football related reasons, except that it's because he actually wasnt fired at all
I was confused. It happens a lot.
I have nothing to offer, but Whit, if you interview someone and they are not overtly enthusiastic about their intention to recruit and recruit well, move on to the next one.
Fuente next month:
***Unless the VT Administration Punts on Having a Competitive Football Program***
And I, for one, would be happy to see that. For it means that Fuente would be gone.
So I'll throw in a name that a few people mentioned last year including myself.
Bill Clark from UAB.
UAB eliminated its football program for two years, and when it was reinstated, Clark had to re- build the entire program up from scratch. He has a fantastic staff including a DC, David Reeves who has had several top 10 defenses over the past few years and is known for being aggressive. He hasn't had a losing season since taking over in 2014 and I think this is a pretty fair body of work that shows he can win and can build a program and develop talent. He's defensive minded and likes to run the ball, which is a VT culture fit.
I think the questions are whether he can recruit or not. He might not be the best option available but I wouldn't rule him out of consideration or the interview.
Good opportunity to watch and compare coaching this weekend when they take on Marshall.
Bill O'Brien, Venables, Mullen, or Freeze. Anyone else and I won't be super excited. Clawson, I could get behind as well but certainly wouldn't be as exciting
I have a hard time believing any of those first three would come here. Hard pass on Freeze for me
Idk I think we're more in on a couple of names than most people have seen at this point. Venables being the least possible currently, however, if there is a year to get Venables now is the time, or it will never happen.
Venables runs a great defense but can he run a program? Xs and Os don't always make good CEOs
Catchy.
Add to that My toddlers have more self control than Venables (unless his sideline spazmotics are just a show for the troops). Do you really want someone like that running your program?
I wouldn't.
did you know his Get Back Coach is named Adam Smotherman!? You can't make this stuff up
Watching him on the sidelines was enough for me to say hard pass. Having been a ref, I'd flag him all the time... and I was pretty lenient.
No on Mullen and Freeze. Mullen's time at UF has made me really not like that guy. He may be a good coach overall but he doesn't seem like the solution for us. Just my observation though.
Can't downvote opinions but I want to haha (joking joking!). Not sure I understand the love for O'Brien I've seen on the boards here, he did a decent job at Penn state for his short stint, but seems like a blah personality who might find himself without a job this year, Don't think he has many folks excited with what he's done with the offense at Alabama this year
I think the hype for him is he has a lot of experience as a HC, he brought PSU out of a dark time, has coached in the NFL. He doesn't need to run the offense as HC, but he has the background to find the right staff to put around him.
The Alabama offense is still one of the best in the nation, with a worse OL, and the weakest WR/RB options they've had in years, but yeah there are some legitimate criticisms about things he's done with their offense this year. Bryce Young has bailed him out of some shitty 1st/2nd down play calling sequences by throwing darts on third and long.
Prepare to be disappointed then.
Freeze is a white-trash-cluster-fuck of a human being.
Hard pass.
If we hire him, all the winning in the world's won't make me watch or support this program.
Head coaching success is a crap shoot and is largely based around getting the right talent. Give me someone who can get VA talent to be proud to play for VA's premier college football program. The wins will follow.
Crootin is a big part but there are other things successful teams do. They are usually very disciplined and consistent. They don't shoot themselves in the foot over and over and over like we do. Some of that is play calling, play design, being able to actually make adjustments through the game and season. Being able to show recruits evidence of putting their guys in the best situation to make plays is a huge benefit for recruiting.
How about Bud Foster now?
The man who thought he was dying from a blood pressure issue? Who got married not long ago?
He got better?
Should have added /s to my earlier comment. Although if Bud wanted it, I wouldnt be opposed to it. Not that I think it would have a high chance of succeeding, but at this point I think coaching hires are a total crap shoot, and whos to say whats a good or bad hire?
He seems to be enjoying life way too much to jump back into the grind after a few years away from it. The benefit I see of him being the HC, he has a defensive staff in place that he would be pretty happy with I imagine and he would go find a OC who can move the ball around. Then we are facing the situation of replacing a legend in the next decade again.
Looking at Whit's coach hiring history, He has never hired someone without Headcoaching experience:
I think we can probably rule out Elko, Freeman, Pry, Elliott, Venables, etc. Huff's one year of experience may also be too little for Whit.
My guess is Napier or Chadwell (based on Whit's past hiring decisions and internet rumors). Clawson and Healy both fits the bill, though I haven't heard any grumblings about either.
so, it'll be one of them, right?
I am expecting someone who there have been no rumors about. That has been Whit's style.
Not really? There were rumors about Buzz and Fuente before each was hired. They Fuente info was literally leaked/reported in the middle of a Memphis game that Fuente was coaching. Fuente and Whit were both quite unhappy about it.
Who knows. I remember hearing grumblings about Buzz and Fuente prior to VT hiring them (not dissimilar from what we're seeing now about Napier).
As an aside - Napier feels like a very Buzz-Williams-esk hire - Dude evaluates opportunities way different than other coaches. If he notices that he can't get a blueblood-level job from ULM, I could see him viewing VT as a stepping stone to a top 10 job.
I would be ok with Napier using us as a stepping stone. Because that means he would have righted the ship so to speak and set us up for a good hire after him... pretty much what Buzz/Brent did for CMY.
How quickly though? Recently we have seen coaches leaving after a year or two and that's not going to help.
If the choices are (a) another two years of Fu, (b) a high-floor, low-ceiling guy like Clawson, who is not likely to leave for greener pastures, or (c) someone like Napier who might leave in a couple years, I'll take my chances with (c). It would suck if he bolted after just a year or two, but I still feel like he'd leave us in a better place. We desperately need to get out of this mindset that we can only hire someone who we believe will be a lifer like CFB was.
I'm not convinced Clawson is a 'low-ceiling' guy. Last year, I would have agreed. This year though, he could realistically finish this season 12-1 at one of the most difficult P5 jobs in the country. That's not a low ceiling.
Yeah I know everyone keeps saying Clawson isn't a "sexy" hire, but I am such a Dave Clawson stan. I love that guy's whole approach to the game. I've heard it described as "moneyball" for college football. Clawson is a progressive-thinking coach. I honestly think he's a perfect fit for us.
You know, "Invent the Future" and all.
Listening to him on a pregame show last bowl season, he was extremely personable and well spoken and came across as legitimately smart without a bunch of BS coach speak. Sold me.
I call him a low-ceiling guy because he's a career .500 head coach and I believe that people are over-indexing on his 2021 results. Credit where it's due: he is having a fantastic year, and should win ACC CoY. But it's hard to say how much of that is due to the lingering impact from COVID (half of his starting defense are super seniors) or the fact that the Atlantic is significantly worse than usual, with Clemson, loserville, and F$U all down.
There's also the question of Wake's opponents during Clawson's tenure; here's the list, sorted by # of wins:
dook 4
'cuse 4
NCSU 4
Army 3
BC 3
lolUVA 3
Loserville 3
VT 2
Elon 2
Utah St. 2
Rice 2
F$U 2
Gardner Webb 1
Tulane 1
Delaware 1
Indiana 1
Presbyterian 1
App. St. 1
Tulane 1
Towson 1
UNCheat 1
Campbell 1
ODU 1
Norfolk St. 1
Not exactly murderer's row...
Take recency bias out of the equation and Clawson is a good coach with a solid philosophy. At VT, he'd probably average 8 wins. We would at least be in contention for the Coastal most years, and every now and then, with an especially senior-heavy team, we'd have a real shot at the ACC title and a NY6 bowl. None of that sucks, which is why I said he's a high-floor guy. But outside of this year, I haven't seen any indication that Clawson has more upside than that. He'd be a good, solid, safe pick.
My point was that, if if the choice were mine, I'd take a chance on a guy who I think has the potential to be great, not just good, even though it comes with more risk.
Maybe it's just me, but this reads as "i'm not convinced he's a high ceiling guy, because if you remove his ceiling from the discussion, all that's left to look at is the high floor"
I understand that there's probably a unique confluence of circumstances leading to Clawson's success this year, but isn't "ceiling" by definition supposed to look at the best possible results?
Fair enough; his 2021 results are real, and impressive. Perhaps it would be better to ask it this way: if Clawson became the head coach for VT, how frequently do you think he would deliver 10+ win seasons? If the answer is "not more than once or twice per decade", then IMO he's not the ideal hire.
Yeah, I agree with you there -- I think what we're all hoping for is to elevate the program. I'm not sure Whit/The Fanbase is willing to tolerate a high-risk high-reward hire (where we might see big competitive push but we also might see a year or two of 3-4 win seasons) rather than someone who can quickly raise the floor by 2-3 wins a year (8-9 wins in a "bad" year, instead of 5-6 like we've seen), always be a favorite for the Coastal, and be competitive in ACCCGs to break into NY6 bowls.
You seem to be under the impression that he would recruit at Wake levels while at VT. Even a poor recruiting class at VT would be more talented than his average classes at Wake giving him a higher ceiling.
I think he would recruit right around VT's historical averages most likely. With this hire, I think many are hoping to boost those averages rather than continue along as we have historically by not emphasizing recruiting. If VT wants to become a legit national power again in today's college football landscape, we are going to have to recruit better than we have historically. Jimmies and Joe's will win over X's and O's consistently at the college level. Clawson is a phenomenal coach no doubt, but I don't think he is the right fit to elevate the recruiting profile of the program.
In sum, we need to go from the program known for recruiting 2 and 3 stars with a few 4s here and there and punching above our weight class to the program that can actually land a large chunk of 4s and those occasional 5 star guys. Talented players want to play with other talented players, so we need to build our culture to fit that.
I think the point he was trying to make is if Clawson can win as many games as he has with recruiting classes ranked in the low 50s/high 60s, even if he recruited at Tech's average of 25, he could win a LOT more games with those recruits.
Counterpoint?: Clawson has achieved success mainly by redshirting and developing talent, and relying on experienced redshirt juniors/seniors. Let's say he does recruit at Tech's average of 25. With more higher-profile recruits, is he necessarily going to be able to convince most of them to redshirt their first year? It seems the higher-profile the recruit, the more they want to play right away.
Yes, exactly. But I agree with VTJ12s points also.
Is the slow mesh RPO Clawson's offense or is it what he used at Wake? I want no parts of that offense.
Average per-recruit rating since 2014 (when Clawson started) for WFU and VT:
Year: WFU Avg. VT Avg.
2014: 0.8180 0.8599 (Beamer)
2015: 0.8298 0.8635 (Beamer)
2016: 0.8319 0.8485 (Beamer/Fu)
2017: 0.8269 0.8613 (Fu)
2018: 0.8428 0.8746 (Fu)
2019: 0.8460 0.8739 (Fu)
2020: 0.8360 0.8498 (Fu)
2021: 0.8361 0.8512 (Fu)
WFU Average: 0.8334
VT Average: 0.8603
I don't know what, if any, conclusions to draw from this data. One thing that jumps out is that other than the ~0.03 delta between us, there's a pretty similar ebb & flow between them. Both peaked in 2018/2019 and have fallen off a bit since then.
Is there anything there that convinces you that Clawson is going to elevate VT's recruiting?
Nothing that says elevate. The difference b/w WF & VT is more apparent in the ranking of the classes. I'd also like to see where WF ranked from 04-13 before Clawson (haven't had a chance to look myself.
Frank & Fuente weren't good recruiters. Fuente straight up burned bridges. Clawson has existing relationships in VA & NC. But look, even if he doesn't recruit above WF level, we'd still be contending for the Coastal every year, and even if we're only 8-4 it's the most entertaining 8-4 team you've ever seen.
If Clawson can recruit at VT average or slightly lower, 25-35, he's shown the ability to develop and win with low-level talent so it would suggest he could win even more here with that level talent.
Per 24/7:
2003 0.7965
2004 0.7658
2005 0.7877
2006 0.8075
2007 0.7955
2008 0.8132
2009 0.8222
2010 0.8367
2011 0.8233
2012 0.8274
2013 0.8100
So he's raised it slightly
IMO, this is where trends and context matter:
I mean, this kind of looks like VT's ceiling over the past 20 years - ACC title appearance 3-4 times every 5 years, with a win every 5 years (at the rate Clemson is going), and maybe a playoff berth once every 10 years (maybe increase that frequency when the playoff expands). This is pretty in line with what Beamer accomplished, except he was able to dominated the ACC when Clemson and FSU were down. So, it feels like you think Clawson could give us Beamer level results?
What I'm saying is - Why can't Clawson be great? If he can win the ACC with the 65th most talented roster in the country, don't you think he could do better with the 40th best roster? What if he gets us back to being the ~25th best roster?
My biggest concerns with Clawson are (1) recruiting and (2) defense. Fortunately the right staff can help mitigate that risk.
I'm not saying Clawson is the best hire, but I do think he could get VT back to 2004-2010 levels.
Ignoring his first two years, they've gone 7-5, 8-6, 7-5, 8-6, 4-5, and 9-1 (currently). The question is whether 2021 is a one-time anomaly. I think it is, largely due to COVID and the Atlantic being worse than usual. If so, I'd say it's more accurate to say that he's plateaued at an average of around 8 wins per year. But we won't know until a year or two from now.
VT won 10 or 11 games every year during that stretch. Wake has yet to do that under Clawson (odds are good this year, obviously), and only two of his teams have ever reached the 10 win mark (Fordham in '02 and BGSU in '13). You're arguing that because he has excelled at doing more with less that he'll automatically perform at the highest levels any of his teams have ever achieved, on a consistent basis, simply because we have a marginal recruiting advantage over Wake? Sorry, but that's a bridge too far for me.
I'm not arguing that he cannot be great; there isn't some smoking gun or big red flag. But there's also nothing in his history that suggests that he will consistently achieve the level of performance you're suggesting (10+ wins every year). That seems to be dependent on him having a senior-laden group who have had 3+ years to develop. That, plus recruiting, are my two big concerns.
Nitpicking here, but 2007 Richmond was 11-3. Assuming he wins 10 games this year, He's built up every program he's coached at to at least a 10 win season.
Essentially, yes. If he were to coach VT, he would be playing the same ACC competition (arguably easier competition since he'd dodge Clemson and FSU most years) as he would at Wake, but with better players. To me, that means one could expect a better record.
That said, I think our recruiting advantage over Wake is more than marginal - We've recruited like shit for 3 straight seasons now, and our roster is still 20 spots more talented than Wake's. Assuming Clawson could bring us back to a top 25 level (which, IMO is the biggest question mark for Clawson), I think it's fair to expect 10ish wins/year with Clawson.
FWIW, If he wasn't already playing an ACC schedule, I wouldn't have this opinion.
Baylor, Oklahoma, UGA, Cincinnati, Oh St, Arkansas, UTSA are all in the top 25 with coaches who were hired with no prior head coach experience.
Jimbo went from OC to head coach at a p5. Mario Cristobal was fired from FIU then was an assistant at 'bama before Oregon. Mel Tucker was dc before Colorado hired him and MSU gave him a "can't refuse" offer. Edit: Dabo obviously
I agree that whit values head coach experience, but I think that's an error. why couldn't Bret pry (PSU) or Dan Lanning (UGA) have success here? And if we're waiting to Dec 16, a playoff-bound coordinator is the only reasonable way I see to sell it to the fans
Why couldn't Napier, Clawson, or Chadwell?
It's not about finding someone who could have success here, it's about finding the person you think is most likely to have success here. I agree that Pry could have success here, but I'm more confident that Napier/Clawson/Chadwell could (and actually would).
I'm not saying they can't; I am saying it's foolish to eliminate a large portion of the talent pool. Based on available evidence, it's an error to say the HC at VT has to have prior head coach experience.
Napier is the only one of those you listed that I would be excited by due to his experience in P5 programs. I would also be interested in
JayCharles Huff for that reason.Clawson I would be ok with but would have concerns
mannn TKP needs to get excited about Chadwell. If he comes here, we immediately become one of the 10 most fun teams to watch in CFB.
I don't disagree with this. And for what it's worth, Whit has hired people who were a head coach at school previously, then became an assistant elsewhere, then a head coach again at VT.
I'd be curious to see the stats on success of first time P5 coaches with head coaching experience vs those without it.
hmmm where have I heard that before? ha
at this point I think it's a philosophical difference of scheme vs structure/ceo in a head coach. clawson and chadwell are scheme guys to me. I personally think we need to focus on jimmies and joes then figure out the x's and o's for the level we want to be at
I mean, if you want a proven CEO, then you definitely want someone with head coaching experience, and you want to stay away from coordinators.
Also - how can you say that Clawson/Chadwell aren't CEOs? Just because they run super creative offenses doesn't mean their not CEOs. Saban is one of the best Defensive schematic minds of all time, and he's a fine CEO. No one accuses Lincoln Riley of being too in the weeds. Not sure why creativity is being viewed as a negative for Clawson and Chadwell.
1) I want someone who knows how to be successful at a top P5 program. Because that should be our aim. I listed multiple schools and coaches above that were able to hire someone without g5 head coach experience and are currently successful
2) My point is: at the level VT wants to be at, we can't just out scheme everyone. We just tried the out-scheme bit for 6 years. Chadwell is probably one of the two best coaches in his conference, probably not the case in the acc. I said I would be ok with Clawson, however it took 6 years to get to 8 regular season wins and 8 years to get to 9.
3)honestly, this isn't that serious we're two internet strangers talking about who should get paid $3+ mil to coach football. not sure why you care that I disagree with literally one of the three names you listed. you seem to be ignoring literally all the evidence presented to argue that only Chadwell/Napier/Clawson would be good hires. I am telling you there's a decent chance it'll be ok if they're not!
Whit needs to go P5 recruting/HC experience with this hire. Period. He tried the "offensive minded" G5 up and comer and it didn't work. We need a coach that knows what it takes to coach a p5 team with high expectations. We need a coach that can recruit. "Improved offense" should be down the list this time.
I agree that that is what we need.
I'm not sure if we'll be able to get it.
Wrong thread. Not as funny here.
What's happening with Eric Bienemy? I know he was overlooked in the nfl ranks but could we get him here?
Media has been pointing at chadwell recently
Bienemy is a big ol' nope for lots of reasons.
1. He was the recruiting coordinator during Colorado's horrifying rape lawsuits around (alleged) sex parties for recruiters. He was never directly accused of anything, but that doesn't look great for a dude with his lengthy legal record from when he was younger. Lots of bad incidents including getting into a physical altercation with a female parking lot attendant and later being sentenced for getting into a physical altercation with some firefighters who were responding to a fire at his parents' house. (Can't lose Hokie Fireman, or yours truly, an ex-hose dragger.) Not a good vibe for the kind of clean program we want to have here.
2. He ran off the most important in-state recruit Colorado has had in the last twenty years, RB Marcus Houston. Bienemy's behavior was bad enough that NCAA granted him immediate eligibility to transfer to rival Colorado State and play right away due to "extenuating circumstances." Instead of a denial, CU's athletic director later said they were confident he had learned from his mistakes. Yikes.
3. Turned down the HC job at Colorado last year when they just offered it to him with no interview. If he isn't interested in taking the head job at his alma mater where he has gone back for two separate coaching stints, he isn't coming to VT. Some rumors out there have him going to USC, which makes sense. He's from SoCal, he played for the Chargers and coached at UCLA for a bit.
4. Has been super successful as an RB coach of some guys named *checks notes* Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. Has been fantastic coordinating an offense under Andy Reid with some guy named Patrick Mahomes at QB, Travis Kelce at TE and Tyreek Hill at WR. Unfortunately I don't see that talent level at VT right now.
Pretty thorough rundown of stuff here, with links to reputable sources: https://thebirdsblitz.com/will-red-flags-in-eric-bieniemys-past-cross-hi....
1000 words: https://www.denverpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/20110806__20110807...
Unless there's some totally off the radar candidate out there, I'm just starting to think it's going to be Clawson. Napier would be great but he's going to have his pick of open jobs. I also really like Huff but I doubt Whit will go with someone with so little HC experience. Coordinators are also likely far down the list. Chadwell or Clawson seem like Whit hires, but due to the P5 experience I can see it being Clawson. I think he's a fantastic coach, but I just don't know if he will be able to recruit to get us to a consistent ACC-championship level program. There were similar concerns about Fuente and they were kind of brushed off, like he would be able to recruit better just because of the VT name and more resources. No real info here just a hunch. It seems like a very safe hire for Whit.
Personally if Napier is off the table, I would get Huff for around $3.5-$4MM and use his coaching connections to hire the absolute best coordinators possible. Load up on a big name staff, also give Huff a very incentive-driven deal. Loads of upside and not a ton of financial commitment if it doesn't work out. I think Whit will view it as too much of a gamble.
I think the reality is that it's a gamble no matter who we hire.
big fan of the idea of Charles Huff
here's a theoretical staff
Head coach: Huff
OC: Holmon Wiggins
DC: Dales Jones (app st DC, should know the carolinas well. is from SWVA, went to school in TN)
Let's cook!
Clawson would be such a cya move by Whit. Not what we need to elevate the program
Perhaps you could expand on this, and provide a well thought out post on why you don't want Clawson at VT?
dont hold your breath
Is this noise? From a mod?
You could have proven me wrong but instead decided to stick to your classic two sentence argumentative hot take.
I literally just replied to the OP. Why would I give my response on Clawson to you?
I think that's called "a warning".
For what? Stating my opinion?
Yes I think as many have pointed out he's a good developmental coach, like a better Cutcliffe, instilling their culture and making the most of what they have, but I don't think that is a recipe for winning at high level and I think the fact that after taking Wake to top 10 heights that he's not on any other prominent schools radar should be a red flag. I want a coach that other teams want. I want a coach that is going to wow us the fan base and more importantly the prospective kids that will come play for us. I think Clawson could be upgrade from Fuente, but I think it's likely a wash.
I don't think clawson has the amount of experience at top level programs necessary.
In industry there is a reason why companies value experience at world class companies. In accounting, experience at a Big4 firm is king. In Chemical engineering you have petroleum. Aerospace you have Boeing. CS you have your Silicon Valley social media companies.
Clawsons only big boy experience was half a season at Tennessee where he did very poorly.
247 has him listed as the primary recruiter for one player, an 87 rated three star QB while at Tennessee.
Clawson is being talked about at USC and Penn State
I have not seen that. Could you share the article or journalist tweets that mention this.
Athletic article by Andy Staples that put Chadwell at VT puts Clawson at USC. Cover 3 Pod they discussed him to PSU, don't remember if it was one from over the summer or from in season.
I can't see anybody turning down Auburn. After they fire you in year 2, you are set for life due to the buyouts!
Yeah why would you turn down a job that picks your coordinators for you and then run the risk of one of those coordinators staging a coup to try to take your job?
Millions of reasons to take it
I see your side of it, but here is where I disagree:
I think VT's recruiting ceiling is top 20ish. The school's best class ever was 18 overall. Historically, teams always recruit at about the same level +/- ~5 spots depending on recent trends. The only things that truly change a school's recruiting profile are (1) a large influx of cash (a la Oregon), (2) Switching Conferences (a la Texas A&M) or (3) Geographic Trends (a la Georgia). That said, I recognize that it does take the right coach to capitalize on any of things.
For this reason, I think VT needs to hire a coach/staff who can develop and recruit a top 25 class. I feel pretty confident that Clawson could do that.
This is my #1 concern with Clawson - can he get VT recruiting at a top 25 level. I think he can with the right staff, but I agree, it's not a given.
This is also something I disagree with - as someone who hires people (in tech), I would much rather hire someone who is making a lateral move from a small start up than someone who is looking to leave FAANG-M and make a vertical leap.
I'm fine with the 20th best class as long as the avg recruit ranking is in line and it's not inflated due to numbers. Any coach that can do that for us consistently and I will be ecstatic. Can't have rankings in the 70s or 90s or whatever Fuente gave us.
Exactly. Average recruit ranking is what we need to increase at VT. Fuente's last several classes have averaged around a .85 avg recruit ranking, which is about a low to mid three star average. This year's average puts us around 45-50 in the country. We are going to need to start winning more of these 4* battles and boosting that average to around 89-90 if we want to seriously compete on a national level. That requires much more emphasis and strategy on recruiting to win these big battles. A coach like Clawson who I think is a great coach would likely recruit to VT's historical average and try to leverage his X's and O's. That may mean a 7-8 win floor, but we aren't taking the program to the next level like that.
Nice expansion. :)
It's going to be Will Healy I just have a feeling.
Everyone keeps bringing up Healy and his potential, but he's going to have to prove it first. .500 this season at Charlotte and losing record overall there in three seasons. Losing career record overall.
I agree. I don't like it, I just said I had a feeling.
I can't name my source, but I know someone who works in the Charlotte athletic department, and after they pulled their upset at the start of the season they told me that the general consensus down there was that they were hoping he'd get poached so they could get rid of him on the cheap.
We already have a coach with a .500 record.
I don't want him, but a .500 record at Charlotte and a .500 record at VT are not comparable. At Charlotte that is a success given where they have started. At VT it is a failure.
Hafley or Houston please. Defense first. If neither of them you pretty much have to go offense, I'd be okay with Clawson
I love the idea of Houston. I was there first hand watching what he did at JMU. The staff is amazing, great with the fans, local town and media. I attended practice regularly (the staff was great with us as well). But I would bet the farm Whit won't hire him. I've heard from my friends on staff that Houston, and the staff, didn't realize just how much of a rebuild the ECU program was going to be. The results simply aren't there yet.
I personally think he'll turn it around and get a big job at some point, but I'm not sure now at VT is the time.
.
No actual insight here, just thinking out loud (I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm absolutely fascinated with the discussion going on with the prospective new coach):
We keep throwing around names of coaches having their best season THIS season, as if that's all Whit's looking at.
There are plenty of good coaches out there, and there's only so many that we are going to be looking at- considering fit, geographical footprint, capabilities, strengths and weaknesses and such.
There's a good chance that Whit's had his eye on a guy like Houston for years.
So what if he's knee deep in shit at ECU this moment? Shouldn't we be looking for the best candidate and the best fit? Whit should simply be keeping tabs every year on who would best fit and work out at our program.
Fuente was one of the sexiest names in the country in 2015, but he was under contract, too. And Memphis was already a little far east for him- we could clearly use somebody already familiar with the territory. Not saying we need to hire the "anti-Fuente" this season, but holy shit lesson learned on that one (even though swinging for the fences in Texas was a cool idea- we can all see that was a wild bet didn't pan out).
We may get a coach like this- an under the radar guy who's covered in battle scars and raw sewage in 2021, but is capable and a good fit. This may be a saavy hire- somebody who USC, LSU or Washington aren't looking at, but if he fits VT like a glove, he could just as well be our guy.
Keep in mind, any given season we'll be hiring against 5 or so schools that can come over the top of us, and a handful that are right on our level with money as well. We're going to make a smart hire, so just picking the hottest candidate in the country right now might not be where we're going with this.
Chadwell and Napier might be fantastic fits, but if they're at the top of LSU or USC's list, there isn't a high chance of them landing here.
If you think he's an awesome fit for VT- why would you not want him the season we need him?
For me, he lacks enough bigger program experience. No coaching experience (head, coordinator or position) at a P5 program and his 3 years at ECU haven't shown that he is successful at that level (yet.)
He needs more seasoning before he is a head coach at a P5 program that has aspirations of conference championships and playoffs.
It's certainly a concern. There aren't going to be any "perfect" candidates, so it's going to be a matter of who has the strengths that best fit us, and the weaknesses that we can work with.
Maybe that's he was saying, too, but Living4Fall jumps in, talks up all of his strengths, what a great fit he'd be, he's got my attention, and then just backs off with like 'maybe he'll end up at UNC next year *shrug*'. I'm like DUDE- you just made an awesome case!
Is this a serious post or like those "Rick Stockstill, next VT HC" tweets?
Do you watch football lol? These are more serious names than Chadwell, Herman, Dykes, Healy and half the names listed
Tom Herman
I nominate Joe for HC. (We know he can engage and build something bigger than him.)
His officer of Quality Control can be DCwilson (few would argue there are individuals with higher standards)
Recruiting co-ordinator can be Fernley Hokie (no individual more positive and inviting)
Defensive co-ordinator is gobble gobble chumps (he's adept at blocking all things offensive)
Offensive co-ordinator is French (knows jimmies, joes, x's, and o's)
I dibs running the social media side: I will just make stupid photoshops of every recruit that commits fully dipped in dork magic
Anyone else want in on this future hall of fame staff?
you need a Director of Beards
might you know anyone in the market for such a gig?
I may'steth
I think your over qualified. More like VP of Beards.
I've tabulated some comparision data for Jamey Chadwell vs Billy Napier, but if I cut & paste it comes in as plain text, losing the columns and becoming difficult to read. How do I paste a table from spreadsheet data?
Thank you bar1990 !
Not as elegant but you could take a screenshot of your spreadsheet, host it on imgur.com, then post the picture.
Here ye go: https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2018/december/13/meta-how-do-i-create...
Looking forward to your analysis.
My apologies. I screwed up my sorting somehow in my previous post. Here are the corrected 2021 game scores
Napier smacked Biberty around. I like him already.
Yes, bring me more of THAT.
I speak for myself and this is just my opinion. I would love to see our next head coach be an ex-Hokie. Price seems like he would do well. Ex-Hokie, loves Virginia Tech, would keep the defensive staff in place (unsure what will happen with Teerlink since he is a Fuente guy), and he could get his own offensive staff. He seems like he would be humble and able to relate to the fan base, Virginia high school coaches, and would be loved by the fan base.
Last thing I want is a stranger coming to Blacksburg with no history or love for the school, it's just a job that is a stepping stone, no meaningful relationships built with the fan base or high school coaches in Virginia, and just lacks humility and no Hokie blood in his veins. I love Blacksburg and Virginia Tech and a coach that bleeds maroon and orange is what will lead to success. The big names do not seem to give a damn about Virginia Tech and because of that I want an ex-Hokie. Luckily for most people I am not the athletic director and my opinion means nothing but an ex-hokie keeping other ex-hokies involved in the program, engaging the fan base and Virginia high school coaches, and loving Hokie football is what I want. That said may the best man get the job but instead of taking a risk on a small school coach maybe Price or Hamilton could be a better choice, I'd prefer them over the likes of Bill O'Brien, and folks from FCS schools, and coaches like Hugh Freeze. Anyways, Go Hokies! I support our new coach 110%
It's a nice sentiment, but it seems unlikely that we'd fire Fuente in order to hire Price.
Nothing against Price. I love his enthusiasm and energy and his genuine care for the team, but hiring him is JJ 2.0.
Yeah, I seriously doubt we're doing that.
We need a coach with a reasonably high probability of turning our football program around, and I'm guessing we have some money to do that with.
Passing on some tea leaves, take it and sip on it.
One name that has come up and has an interesting connection is Mike Elko A&M DC. Not saying they've reached out but have heard that could be one of the Plan B's that Whit could be considering if he strikes out on A. Elko was Clawson's DC for 2 seasons at WAKE and has coached under Clawson for 12 seasons. This is where I think the Clawson is a front runner noise is coming from as Whit might've reached out to pick his brain on Elko.
There is a slim chance that Clawson would ever leave Wake considering what he's done with that AD as a whole. That 7M buyout is also something that would be a big one to swallow and it sounds like Clawson would want to bring his whole staff from Wake.
That all sounds pretty reasonable.
Clawson sounds like almost too lazy a selection to be true. And you're right, you'd have to move almost the whole coaching staff, as it's working pretty well where he is now.
Elko? Elko, I like it. Let's go!
Bums me out - I don't think VT should be giving first time HCs a shot. That said, I recognize that coaching hires are a crapshoot. Why couldn't Elko be successful here?
We might have a new leader in the clubhouse:
So Napier had a fresh haircut and had just shaved from the looks of the Liberty game tonight. Cleaning up for an interview yesterday/early today? Whit also sure looked happy in that press box with the thumbs up.
This is peak analysis. We have transcended the flight tracker.
Sooo....not to be a total downer here but after losing in OT to Mizzou, there are increasing whispers here in the Sunshine State that Mullen is very near being fired. My "sauces" don't think they will fire him this week with FSU coming up, but if UF loses to FSU this week, they think it is nearly certain. Even with a win, they think it is 50/50.
UF is one of the jobs that has been posited as a possible landing spot for Napier.
Just a hunch, but I think Whit already has his guy locked up.
He was very happy in the shot from the booth mid game
It got deleted, but during the game right after that shot of him in the press box, someone @ him on Twitter saying F*** you (Twitter is a cesspool). He immediately responded and just said "Go Hokies" during the game. Must have been in a good mood.
Every fan I talked to today pre or post game want Manny out.
They got a lot of help from the Zebras to win today. I think the alum want change and the death of the gimmicks.
Mother nature helped them a bit too.
That field was awful for playing. But that stadium design with the roof is awesome. Didn't even feel a drop of water the whole game on me. Meanwhile it was like tropical rain when I left. The 150 yards from the concourse to my car soaked me down to my skin.
So Godfrey says Lane wants out at Ole Miss.. Say Miami gets Cristobal and Florida gets Napier. Shouldn't we take a run at Lane?
I took it to mean that Lane wants out of Ole Miss to look at Miami or UF, not that he was completely done at Ole Miss. It didn't sound like he was open to any school. Fwiw, some Florida people think they are pursuing Lane but best I can tell, their insiders are all over the place right now. It's the wild wild west in coaching search land these days
Lane Kiffin coaching at Lane Stadium!!!! 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻
No way Miami gets Cristobal - he's not leaving Oregon for a Miami program in shambles.
Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Who is the next full-time Virginia Tech football coach?
Jamey Chadwell +400
Billy Napier +500
Mike Elko +600
Dave Clawson +700
Brent Venables/Tony Elliott +800
Joe Moorhead +1000
Bill O'Brien +1200
Sonny Dykes +1300
Hugh Freeze +1500
Shane Beamer +1800
Gary Patterson +2000
Marcus Freeman +2000
What are those numbers?
The top 5 are ones I've heard kicked around here a bit, along with some of the others. Along with a few more.
If it's plus odds, thats the amount of money you win if you bet $100, so +400 would means that if you bet $100, you get back $500, for a profit of $400, conversely if someone was -150, thats the amount you would need to bet to win $100, you would have to bet $150 to win $100
Thanks.
No way I'd bet on something as unpredictable as a coaching selection, but it's interesting to know/understand the numbers.
Wonder what the Field is. Might take that bet. Especially if Joe has any insider info.
As far as I can tell these lines are just made up for headlines, I don't see a book that's actually taking this.
I did a quick search (so I probably missed some) of books to see if anyone had bets for the VT coach but didn't see any. I did see one for Florida and they currently list Napier as the favorite +350 with Kiffin next as +500.
I forgot the /s.
if we don't get napier, i would think chadwell and freeman would be the next men up. i am surprised freeman is so low on this list. maybe they just don't see him leaving ND yet, or think he is waiting for a Big 10 job.
He's only 35
I don't understand why VT fans have any interest in Freeman. He's had one year of P5 coordinator experience.
I mean, there are VT fans that have been wanting JHam to get the whistle too
I get that - I don't agree with it - but I understand why a former player who loves the school is super attractive. Freeman doesn't have that allure.
Shane Beamer had zero, Dabo had zero. Freemen and Gattis check a lot of boxes I think college football especially second tier teams like Tech should be going for. Young, talented, former NFL, have experience in multiple P5 programs, and a huge thing for me is young black coaches who don't get enough chances in P5 HC searches.
Shane Beamer and Dabo both had previous connections to their current employer, and were uniquely qualified to present a vision on how they could improve their respective programs.
The thing that concerns me about Gattis is that he has struggled to create an offensive identity at Michigan. If you can't create an offensive identity, how do I know you can come up with a vision/identity for an entire program?
I don't think Freeman's experience is that impressive - he spend 3 years at a position coach at Purdue during the Hazell era, a few years at Cincy, and 11 games at ND. He hasn't spent any significant time being mentored by a great head coach, doesn't have any experience in the Mid-Atlantic - he seems like a mid-west guy - Why VT?
I recognize the need for more minority head coaches (both from a recruiting-to-VT standpoint, and an equity/social justice standpoint), but both of these hires (to me) seem like bad choices for VT - I honestly think hiring Gattis or Freeman would be setting them up for failure (and that's not fair to them).
That said, I also recognize that hiring a head coach is a crapshoot - there's no single right way to do it, and thousands of wrong ways to do it. If either of these guys can present a comprehensive vision for VT football and strategy for implementing their vision, and Whit buys into it, then I will get onboard.
Edit: a letter
Note to self: Look down at the bottom of the post to see what has changed before scanning a post thinking "this sounds familiar" only to see that a single letter was changed. ;^)
this is the epitome of overthinking things -- you can name drop a beamer (who we don't even know is good or not yet) and the single biggest outlier in Dabo, but one year of P5 coordinator is not nearly enough an established track record. Former NFL player is nice, but a guy having a cup of coffee in the league as a practice squad guy doesn't move the needle for me relative to answering the questions like "has he run literally any program before" or "how long has he been very good at his job". i'm not saying i know that Gattis or Freeman would bust, i'm just saying it makes way way more sense to me to take a swing on Huff, Chadwell, or Elko than it does either of those two. Huff and Chadwell have been head coaches (though we dont even know if Huff is good yet and Chadwell has zero experience around P5) and Elko has been a P5 DC for 8 years incl ND and A&M
Can Elko recruit when he isn't dropping a bag though? Can he be a CEO or is he just a good ball coach? Freeman has some of the same questions but at least we can be pretty sure of his recruiting ability and he has guys like Fickell and Brian Kelly vouching for him as a future HC.
Still like a Clawson/Napier type with HC experience over any of these guys.
Huff is a really intriguing prospect as well, because I can't really think of a coach that's an analogue to him. That said he hasn't really done all that well in a bad conference with a team that was almost undefeated last year. He'll finish 7-5 (Western Kentucky is gonna whip them this weekend) in a bad conference. Recruiting obviously he'll be above average or better, probably same with developing skill positions on offense. The rest is tbd, he'd need to hire a great support staff (and we'd have to give him the money to)
I also don't understand why anyone would be excited about Chadwell. He is the least exciting candidate on the board I think. Gimmicky offense which will be shut down by P5 defenses after a year of film, such a unique scheme that only his guys know how to run it so destroys any hope of a big time staff, no P5 experience at all, not known to be particularly good with media/fans. Would rather not hire Fu again.
As someone who is a Chadwell fan, and has watched at least 5 coastal Carolina games over the last two years, I would say the following:
I admit that I do have concerns about his ability to recruit at a top 25 level (which is my expectation for VT). Like any hire in 2021, the surrounding staff will matter.
here is his intro press conference from when he was hired as AHC/OC at Coastal. I skipped to when he starts talking. He doesn't seem like he has a wet blanket personality at all.
Here is his appearance on gameday last year
Man that accent to thick east tennessee. It's like if Dolly Parton were a football coach.
Certainly not a wet blanket though. Seems pretty likable and charismatic to me.
Accent? What accent?
Sounds normal to me. But then again I grew up very close to east Tennessee.
Not that they are the same, but this is exactly what was being said about Fuente when he was hired.
I don't see his offense being creative as a knock against him. However he has been the beneficiary of some bad tackling in the Sun Belt (a lot of that is putting his guys in the right spot, a lot of it is also just bad tackling). Recruiting wise people here are hyping up Napier, but Chadwell actually has actually out recruited him this cycle (in NC,SC,GA,VA too as opposed to LA,TX). Defense is a concern though, he'll need to go out and get a good coordinator (JHam maybe?) the coastal guy is not going to cut it.
Venables, O'Brien, or Mullen and I think we are perennial ACC contenders as long as they're here
for the life of me, i just can't figure out the appeal of mullen. he just bombed at florida, and he couldn't recruit well there. if you can't recruit well at florida, there is no way in hell you are recruiting well at VT.
I wouldn't say he bombed, he just went 10-3, 11-2, 8-4 and then 5-6, at UF, his avg recruit at UF has also been about a 90 composite which I don't have enough history to know if that is under performing at UF but is still objectively good, he also had a winning season in 7 of 9 seasons at Mississippi St which is unheard of success for them, I'm not a fan of him personally, think he's a bit of a tool and would prefer someone else as coach but the dude has been a good coach and has had a ton of success in the SEC, the small sample size of the past 12 months shouldn't outweigh a career's worth of success, I could see why people would want him.
You should have to post his record and recruiting classes for a statement like this and then come back and repeat he "bombed" and "can't recruit"
Let me guess. Saw that on the internet...
Florida is currently at the 14th best class based on average recruit rating. This is just slightly below PSU. His lack of 5* so far is what hurts his ratings, but still has a solid class.
I wouldn't say he bombed at Florida. He went to three NY6 bowls (won two) and won the SEC East last year. I'm not sure on the recruiting numbers.
I guess my main concern on him would be that UF folks seem to think that he isn't a good CEO of the program. A lot of people seem to think if he had canned Todd Grantham, he probably would've been ok, but for some reason he refused to do so. I know every fanbase has a scapegoat so I'm not sure how accurate that is, but it does sound very familiar...
I would take Mullen in a heartbeat. He didn't bomb at Florida. He would improve our program in recruiting and give us a CEO type. He has SEC pedigree and lots of head coaching experience. He might not be here forever but that's ok.
Napier's gonna end up at Florida, isnt he?
More than likely unfortunately.
That's surely sad.
I am def more worried about that than I am Napier to LSU
Steven Godfrey said if UF opens Napier will be there, so I'm guessing he's not gonna be interested in VT.
I think LSU is being *dumb* by (presumably) thinking he's not good enough for them, but I have to imagine between LSU and UF we're gonna get big dogged.
Has Fuente's name been linked to any new jobs? Do we get any of the buyout back if he inks a new deal?
No and no.
I have heard his name come up for SMU. That's about it.
Don't think that is serious unfortunately.
If Dykes does take TCU it could be a fit for them.
He did a good job at Memphis, so perhaps his ceiling is G5.
Wait till Texas State or Tulsa opens
I've seen North Texas, assuming that job comes open.
Best case, we sign Napier before UF makes up their mind and we get a 5 million buyout that helps pay the down payment for our next coach.
Too late.
https://www.gatorsports.com/story/football/2021/11/21/florida-gators-foo...
Huh?
That story you linked to says nothing about UF is hiring (only a list of candidates and Napier is last on that list).
i'd bet that LBT read the op as meaning "before UF makes up their mind and fires mullen" because that's how i processed it at first ("huh? i thought they already fired him") before i realized it probably meant "before UF agrees to hire a replacement"
BTW, the fact that somebody posted this gif as "tommy boy chris farley" makes me sad.
My guess is if Napier wants Florida, he is not signing anywhere until he knows for sure he is not getting Florida
Unless he signed before Florida fired Mullens