2021-22 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume 3

The Men's Team
Well my 3-1 to 4-0 prediction, counting an easy win over Maryland, like the defense in My Cousin Vinny, was wrong. Close losses to Memphis and Xavier, as well as a close win over Maryland puts the Hokies at 6-2 on the nascent season, and there are a lot of things to talk about.

Scoring
Scoring fell off a freaking cliff; going from 77.25 ppg over the first frame, to 63.5 over this frame. Pacing the Hokies with 14.75 ppg was Alleyne, followed by Aluma (12.25) and Cattoor (10.75). Just missing out on a double figure average was Mutts (9.25). Murphy saw the biggest drop in scoring, going from 10 ppg to 4.75, barely edging out Maddox, who also fell from 7.5 ppg to 4.25.

Cattoor and Alleyne were the only Hokies who saw their scoring averages increase by more than 1 ppg.

Rebounding
Rebounding also took a hit,as the 35.75 rpg fell to 30. Mutts still leads the team in rebounding, increasing his haul from 6.5 rpg to 8.5. The biggest jump was Aluma who went from 4.25 rpg to 8.25. Alleyne and Cattoor are the only other Hokies averaging greater than 1.75 rpg.

Assists
Do I really need to do this? Ugh.

In the previous frame only Maddox, Aluma, and Ojiako were among the significant contributors to have an ATO of less than 1:1. Murphy went from working 9:5 in the first set of games to working at 7:11. Alleyne is still dishing it well, going 12:5. Pedulla is consistently getting 4:1 over both four game windows. Aluma dug himself out of the hole, from 3:4 to 7:5, and Mutts is still +3 at 13:10. Cattoor dipped a little, going from 11:4 to 7:4.

Experience/Depth
These were more knockdown/dragout fights than the previous set, and the minute distribution reflected that, as the number of Hokies with 30+ minute averages went from 2 (Cattoor, 31.25 and Alleyne, 30.5) to 4 (Alleyne, 35.5, Aluma, 33, Cattoor, 32.75, and Mutts, 30.5) Contributions off the bench also dropped off with N'Guessan losing 6.5 mpg, Pedulla losing 2.25, Ojiako losing 5, and Maddox losing 1.75. Murphy remained in the 28 mpg window for both frames.

It's becoming clear that only 7 players will see significant minutes as the year progresses, with 2 more getting more than 2 minutes per half. So 7 man rotation with 2 spot fillers.

Next Four
It's conference time in Blacksburg, at least momentarily, as the Hokies will welcome Wake Forest on Saturday. The Deacs are 7-1 with their lone loss coming at home against LSU. Like the Hokies they won their ACC/B1G matchup, but unlike the Hokies, they do have a high major conference victory, beating Oregon State on a neutral site game, in overtime. This is their first true road game on the season. They have three quality scorers and four consistent depth scorers. As a team they are putting up 82 ppg. They have a lot of height, with 7 players 6-8 or taller. You may recognize 11th year Sr Khadim Sy coming off the bench. They also have a lot of length at the guard position with 7 players 6-4 or taller there.

The Hokies will then begin wrapping up their non-conference play with Ivy Leaguer Cornell. Their lone loss came from their only high major matchup, a road game at Penn State. They appear to have two decent scorers and 7 supporting scorers. The two teams match up well, heightwise.

Heading on the road, the Hokies face the A10's Dayton Flyers, who have to be the most befuddling and inconsistent team on the planet. They are currently 5-3 with losses to UMASS-Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay, but they're 2-0 against high majors, with wins over Miami and Kansas. They don't have any featured scorers, but they should have a slight height advantage over the Hokies.

Rounding out the non-conference slate will be St. Bonaventure. The Hokies will face the Bonnies in Charlotte. Their lone loss is against Northern Iowa, but they have a high major win, knocking off Clemson earlier this season. They have two major scorers and are well balanced with 5 players in double figures, but they don't get much production off the bench, as only 8.1 of their 74.6 ppg come from the bench. Heightwise, the two teams are very balanced. Expect depth to play a factor in this game though.

Prediction
Wake scares me with their height. Dayton is confusing. St. Bonaventure can hurt us if they don't have to go to the bench often. Cornell is the only sure-fire win in my opinion, but I think we can get the win over Wake. I am not confident in making a call against Dayton or St. Bonaventure, although both are winnable.

The Women's Team
I said I didn't expect any team in this frame to get within 15 of the Hokies. Again, I was wrong. Only Campbell failed to get close, and Missouri State managed a W against the Hokies. However, I can't really complain about a 7-1 team...yet.

Scoring
Like the men's team, scoring fell off considerably, dropping from 78.25 ppg to a much less nice 69. Kitley still leads the team, averaging 20.25 ppg over the window. Amoor stepped up her game by 2.5 ppg, as has Baines by 4.5 ppg. Sheppard dropped off by 8.5 ppg, C. King by 5 ppg, Traylor and Lytle both by 2.25.

Rebounding
Rebounding also fell off, dropping from a team average of 38.25 to 31. Kitley paced the way with 8.25, down from 10.25. However, her dropoff was mitigated by Baines going from 4.75 to 6.5 and Traylor going from 2.25 to 3.5. However, every other major contributor dropped off.

Assists
This is going to hurt. In the last frame 7 players had an ATO of 1:1 or greater. This time, that number is 3. Amoore has the most assists and the highest ATO, minimum 10 assists at 14:9, and Traylor has the best ATO overall at 9:2.

Experience/Depth
7 players are getting major minutes, paced by Traylor and Kitley's 32.25. Amoore (29.5), Sheppard (28.5), C King (25), and Lytle (20.25) round out those getting the majority of the minutes, while Baines (19.25) provides the most depth. Gregg (8.75) provides the only other real depth at greater than 2 minutes per quarter.

Next Four
Let's see, who's next....perkele.

The Tennessee Lady Vols come to Blacksburg. 7-0 with two top 25 and 3 high-major conference wins, this is gonna be the toughest non-conference test for the Hokies. Kitley loses her height advantage in this one. Tennessee doesn't score as much as the Hokies, and their scoring appears to mostly come from 1 player, although they are dangerous.

Brooks' squad then travels down to Lynchburg for a matchup with Liberty. The Flames are 6-1 with their lone loss coming against Memphis. They have two scoring threats, and the Flames are taller than the Hokies not named Kitley.

Rounding out the non-conference schedule will see the Hokies welcome Radford. At 4-3, including losses to both high-major conference opponents so far, the Highlanders are scoring less than the Hokies, but have 6 players who have led the team in scoring so far. The Hokies should enjoy a height advantage in this one though.

The Hokies end this frame beginning conference play. Florida State is up first. The Noles are 4-2 so far, with losses to BYU and Purdue. They score similar to the Hokies, but they've been led in scoring by four different players. The Noles don't have a ton of height, so Kitley should get free reign down low.

Prediction
I don't see us beating Tennessee. The other two non-conference games should be wins. I have a feeling the Hokies will start ACC play at 1-0.